The Aging Population of the World
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- Опубліковано 2 чер 2021
- The share of the world's population older than 75 years will go up to 14 % in the coming 80 years from 4 % today and 1 % in 1950. In this video I visualize the world's aging population, the geographical distribution, population pyramids and how this trend can affect society.
Small Circles Forward by Daniel Karlsson Lönnö 2021.
Follow my weekly updates on Instagram @smallcirclesforward / smallcircle.. .
With help from Jesper Lindstam.
Sources:
United Nations Population Division - World Population Prospects 2019 population.un.org/wpp/Downloa....
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Ageing
2019: Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/430). www.un.org/en/development/des...
Music from Epidemic Sounds:
"Teenage Emotions" by Cospe downloaded from Epidemic Sounds. www.epidemicsound.com/
"Where do we go" by STRLGHT downloaded from Epidemic Sounds. www.epidemicsound.com/
All videos from Storyblocks; www.videoblocks.com/.
Vectorized map: World with Countries - Single Color by FreeVectorMaps.com.
Please note that any borders drawn on the map does not necessarily represent any political view of the creator of this video.
Criminaly underrated channel, remember me when you become famous.
I have a prediction. In couple of decades, this video will blow up because of an economic crisis as aggregate demand falls due to lack of consumers following the demographic shift.
NO
@@starcluster2593 so you think we’re all gonna have like 8 toasters to keep GDP the same then?
@@LucasFernandez-fk8se gdp overall might get smaller. But gdp per capita wont get smaller.
Alghtough there are many disadvatages particualry for large nations like US or russia (Which already is sparesly populated) . Less people means costlier maintanance for their infrastructure.
@@KrolPawi not really, the old people r still alive. They would just be forced to work now. Birth rates would decline even faster because the young are expected to undergo education until their thirties, and then most might only be capable of starting family at 40. That’s the age where women undergo menopause and can’t have kids anymore, the population growth rate would decline further until a demographic collapse and mass starvation, only then can society reset and re-evaluate whether education or development should take precedence to the survival of the speciesx
Our economy should serve our needs not the other way around
Wow this is something I going to see, i can not imagine the year 2080.
x2. I'll be in a white block that year
Basically Japan today
It’s gonna be horrible if we don’t end social security and make old people pay for themselves.
don't jinx it dud
The World population is predicted to stagnate at around 9-11 billion people.
Leave the age group on the chart when you show the growth. It helps the viewer.
That's a very precious presentation you made. I'll remember to watch again in 2040 when maybe the parts of 0-14 and 15-29 would decline much more than the current estimations
I doubt UA-cam will exist in 2040.
@@1mol831 I'm sure that this video will be available in 2040, even in other website than youtube
The raw data he used for his model are wrong... China's fertility rate was 1.3 in 2021, India was 2.1 and US was 1.7... The are all lower still now... Together they account for 40% of the world's population and they are declining fast... You will see the population halfed in 30 years as too many people get too old to work and sustain their lives... Too many for the system to support. Systems will fail, supply chains will be broken and a lot of people will die from things that are trivial and preventable.
@@PAIP_Studio It’s even worse than that. Whole sections of society will largely cease to exist due to a lack of intergenerational skill transfer and/or a lack of participation from the younger generation. In the US, most primary school teachers are in their 30’s, and the general consensus among Gen Z is that being a teacher is a fool’s game. Teachers can’t afford to live on their own, work well beyond their contracted hours, and still take constant abuse day in and day out. Expect most primary schools to be shut down in 30 years, and most public schools overall in 50 years. At my former primary school, the median age of teachers is in the 40’s, while the median age of all staff is in the 50’s. That school isn’t unique. There is a significant shortage of youth in public schools. As for the lack of intergenerational skill transfer, this is something that’s still emerging. For example, skill level at my place of business is highly dependent on age and date of employment. With work becoming increasingly bureaucratized, it becomes harder to obtain certifications and much easier to give up, simply forget you were ever even doing it, or for management to fail to deliver. At my place, more than 90% of the folks legally qualified to operate a forklift are over the age of 45. We need more forklift folk. If something doesn’t change in the next 20 years, the business will either stop functioning or laws will be broken. This goes beyond my place of business. Hostile corporate takeovers and/or buyouts often destroy a functioning business by cutting the heart out of the company.
@@josephhoward4697 I was an apprentice engineer by trade while studying in a university. I know both trades and academia. The problem is systemic. There is too much accumulated red tape to do anything these days... Being an apprentice was a natural thing that people did without any paperwork, documentation or certification in the past. I am one of the rare once that did it this way. You learn while you pull your weight. Its not perfect but it works. Unfortunately with blanket laws in things like minimum wage and hard limits in work hours even if an employer or a business owner in the trades wanted to offer things like that It would be impossible for them to do so. Plus the people up top are too detached from reality to even recognize the problem, so I don't think they will do anything to remedy the issue. They will keep marching blindly until they lead us all of a cliff.
When I get cancer I'm just going to let myself go.. I don't see the point in prolonged life
This video and this guy should deserve 100k subs and likes!
Great vids man love how original your style is
Man top tier educational content
Awesome video!
Great video
Love these analysis ❤
Very enlighten...
Adding an even older section would be an interesting aspect to peer into the scope of longer life expectancy.
Yes, it would be interesting to see the number of people projected to be 95+. Already we have more centenarians than at any time in history.
Waiting for this to blow up
Aging population is an inescapable effect of the falling Total Fertility Rate in the great majority of the world. On average, a woman in a nation has to have 2.1 children to maintain a steady population; about 5% of girls are never able to become mothers. Some die young and some are incapable of having children.
China's TFR has dropped to 1.69 children per mother, and girls are sometimes culled from the births. India is barely on the positive side at 2.2 now, but is steadily dropping.
Outside of Africa, there are very few places in the world where populations are rising; the Middle East, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan, and a couple scattered spots. Italy is in a prolonged crisis due to dropping population; Japan and South Korea are seeing birth rates around half the replacement rates for more than a generation.
Why? Children are just too expensive in the Industrialized world.
Bingo. Governments have prioritized corporations over people which inevitably makes the cost of living more expensive. The only solution is making life affordable so it isn’t a burden to expand one’s family.
North Africa still pretty high
3.8 urban yet 7.0 rural
Niger, Chad, others
Africa will be huge by 2100
They've been saying Japan has an aging population; but that was 20yrs ago. Japan currently is becoming a shrinking population.
in 20 years it will have aged more
You can count me out on the aged population by then. I don't see the point of staying alive as you deteriorate and depend on other people for every little thing. No dignity in any of that.
Enjoy your youth guys! saving for when you're unable to do anything is a ridiculous idea.
We can all take steps now to enjoy our later years with less age related health problems. Enjoy your youth AND old age!
Can you make a similar visual for each continent because this rapid decline in fertility rates is not exactly universal and in fact some countries were even able to reverse that trend in the 90s (see Pakistan, Egypt, Palestine, and a few sub-saharan African countries) so I think it would be better if you broke this analysis down by each continent since it is common knowledge that the rise/stability in Europe’s population is primarily due to migration from the developing world (Middle East, Africa, AfPak, etc.).
Note: Some Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Slovenia) have also slightly increased their TFR but we will see how long this trend lasts in the long term
I doubt this phenomenon will last until the 2500s, a population that keeps declining will eventually bounce back. (lets say it begins to decline 0.5% every year by 2100 (Human age limit is around 120 years old, people probably can't solve it)), the result will give us around 1/10th the population at 2500. And only around 50 million humans will remain in 3000 assuming the population keeps declining. I think it will probably stop declining when there are only 50 million humans left. People will begin to have more kids.
That is fantastic setting for some utopian sci fi novel about the end of the human civilization. Where it ends simply beacuse pepole dont have enough Kids and the last human die cared for by robots etc or something similar.
Truly a fantastic setting
@@KrolPawi fr
@@KrolPawi indeed.
@@KrolPawi
And the Amish take over.
Yeah population ebb and flow all the time in other species, we will too. But we are not gonna be reduced to 50million lol, unless nuclear war make Russia/America an unhospitable place.
This is a good thing. It shows the world reaching equilibrium, in a state where everyone lives a long time
yeah. there was a time when there was less then 2 billion people for most of human history and people had better life
This. Any form of exponential growth always leads to systemic failure. If the birth rate kept increasing as it did during the Baby Boomer's era, we'd have seen world wide economic and society collapse by now. Our planet can't maintain that level of population growth, nor could any individual country. Most people aged 75+ right now where born during the Baby Boomer era, so having a larger elderly population now compared to a hundred years ago makes sense.
@@erianle123547 where already having problems with the population alive today
Except that we won't be able to financially support such a large number of older people that can no longer work and also we won't have enough human resources to provide the aged care and keep certain sectors of society operating as we run out of younger people. This will eventually mean economic downturn, infrastructure deterioration and decreased standard of living for everyone.
Excellent way of presenting the data.
As population increases on the planet, so too does famine, pestilence, disease, migration and war. These factors impact most heavily on the very young and the old. When this happens, we experience a temporary reset. Extrapolating from present conditions, without knowing the true extent of future conditions, is prone to error the further out we go. In that sense, it is somewhat like weather predictions. The first three days will be fairly accurate, the days after that are an allusion that gets adjusted as they draw near.
It might surprise you to know that poverty has been more than halved since 2000. Certainly, a lot of people starve but there has also been significant progress in that area. The improvement in life quality is a significant factor in the declining birth rate.
Most food shortages are a product of poor infrastructure, war and civil unrest. The world is producing more than enough food for everyone.
No western country is producing enough children to maintain its population. Japan, we all know about but, China also faces a steep population decline.
@@PhilJonesIII True. Birth rates have declined, but the number of people on the planet continues to grow, subject to the increasing likelihood of the reset conditions I mention. That is the glass half empty analysis, but you point out the glass half full factors that give us cause for optimism.
Don't lie heathen, it is the old/witch trash vs nature/youth/children.
Very cool video, through this i imagine the population in 2030 will certainly balance between groups: infant,middle,old. Plus the news China ( nearly 2bilion people) have loose the child control, it mean even in a large country -> the worker population go downfall in future becourse aging, meanwhile young generation have blossom a "new" lifestyle which don't think about children, directly affect next 10 yrs period will record a mass decrease of baby. Vice versa, the fund for child now return to support the old one, seem it have been first time balance between old and young in history?. As you said in video, working age will longer, nursing career rise up and of course financial support - essential to the economy which don't count the people 65+ as a forrmer worker.
And so on, as a new old generation will retired in 2040, a new playground of old ones indeed become a serious matter since less people join in this "young" industry. Now in some countries have a discrimination of genders and encourage marriage to continue family. There will be a conflict between two notion: First, keep rise children to keep "family blood" or invest in personal life.
I imagine that may happen.
I am over here thinking about all of the old people that we'll have to take care of in 2060... then realized I will be one of those old people. *sigh* :((
I'll be 106 years old in the year of 2100. We'll find out what the future holds though.
Same
If you live that long lol.
@@octoberboiy I think he will. He would probably die when he is 120
Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this topic, and after that I can really see the impact of human population, and migration this is going to have, on the world, it's hugly hightly over population, assisted by improving health disorders and medical intervention, technology's, discovery's in these, assist the Life, expectations of serviving into adulthood, and so being able to produce children of their own, regardless of their own financial situation, clearly child poverty increase, is inevitable, it will not be overcome, Enan in the future, an Evan Bigger mass of adult's, Will be alive than now, that's immensely scary information, as this show's that food availablity, Also will continue to be in a unequal distribution, hunger, world hunger, will just increase, far more than now, this is upsetting, saddening, the refugee situation clearly will, not be going away, will not be found any solutions, for it, solving any of these over the spectrum, it will just be mass, Bigger, needs, it's very concerning, to these issues of, housing, heating, power, transport, petrol, education, contraception, birth control, child health, decease research, decease disorders and treatment, medical cear, food, water, everything in greater need impacting in supply and demand, terrifying to imagine that Future tomorrow.
Have you read the book "Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline"?
I'll look for it. Thanks.
One pet peeve of mine that I have when discussing population decline is that people always reach for very specific explanations for particular countries e.g. (e.g. legacy of the one child policy in China, workplace sexism in Japan and Korea, lack of childcare in America...etc) but those explanation kinda miss the overall point - the trend towards less than 2.1 children per woman appears fairly universal, and even very generous social programs in places that can afford it, like Sweden and Finland, haven't been all that successful. This suggests that, at some fundamental level, *human females don't tend to want to have more than 2.1 children* on average, when given a choice in the matter and options in life.
This makes sense to me. Children are an absolutely huge emotional, financial and time commitment, even with government support, I can't see that changing. To get the TFR above 2.1 again means we have to return to a world where families commonly have 3-4 children (to balance out the average when you account for childlessness). Having 4 children is just not something many people aspire to these days, for a variety of reasons which aren't going to change anytime soon.
This suggests that the human population is going to decline in the long term. Given the 2019 UN Population Projections are pretty widely regarded as too high, I'd be amazed if the human population goes above 10 billion in the next 200 years.
As a side note, I'm also personally pretty optimistic when it comes to aging science (momentum has really shifted towards address aging as a disease in recent years, with a variety of promising lines of inquiry). Assuming at least some of those lines of inquiry pan out and we get 100+ year life expectancies, that will hold off demographic decline for few decades in the late 21st-early 22nd century.
It almost entirely due to urbanization and the decline of religion.
I find that most women want one child of each gender and if they get that they'll not decide to have another.
@@jasonbuford496 Hmm...urbanisation maybe (although I'd say it's more down to occupation and economics than whether somebody lives in a city or not itself. Children are a boon in agrarian economies, and an expense in high-skill economies, which also tend to be more urban). Urbanisation is set to increase in the 21st century, so whether its correlation or causation, that suggests further downward pressure on fertility.
As for religion I'm not sure. East Asian and Eastern European countries aren't appreciably less religious now than they were 50 years ago (the argument could be made for the opposite), and other European countries have seen fertility declines in recent decades despite having been pretty secular for a long time.
Again I think there may be correlation vs. causation thing occurring here - as countries get more educated and developed, religiosity tends to decline (not just in the sense of more people identifying as atheists, but also in that fewer people are likely to be devout enough for religion to influence reproductive decisions). It'd be interesting to take two countries identical in every respect except religiosity and compare, but I can't think of such an example off the top of my head.
Catholicism or other religions that heavily emphasise having lots of children (Mormonism?) may have more of an independent effect.
@@merrymachiavelli2041
It's be no means a perfect example but the US and Europe are pretty similar but the US is significantly more religious and has a much higher birthrate.
@@berubettonyan
Yes, there is a lot of bullshit people have to do now days.
Rejected the bullshit, return to the simple and true life.
Kids are blessingd.
Have been to a few rural area's in Japan...the average age is very high with few people under the age of 30. Not sure what Japan is going to do about this very serious issue.
It seems like those areas are going to have vast swaths of deceased followed by food shortages as that’s where the farmers live
David Wilcox -the Japanese continue to work into old age -not necessarily full time .It us regarded in Japan as the duty of people to work and contribute to society as long as they can .And one if the fastest growing employment groups in the U.K. are the over 65's -it keeps you physically and above all mentally active and provides a routine in your life .I have no intention of ever retiring unless I absolutely have to - when you rest you rust! !!
Japan and other nations can solve their population growth problems by not being so darned xenophobic.
You open the nation and encourage people to become Japanese(South Korean, Italian, Greek, American, etc....)
You don't have to worry so much about the older immigrants that you invite in.
It is a bit of a nuisance when new citizens don't care to learn the language or care little for some of the customs and traditions of their new home, but their kids and their kids kids will overwhelmingly become Japanese and grow up loving the food, culture, traditions, and values of Japan, even over their parents and grandparents food, culture, and traditions.
The earth is nowhere close to being overpopulated.
We just need nations to allow for more human and global mobility.
Stop being damn bigots!
We are one family!
@@sammyslam1 the Japanese retain their national culture and do.not allow it to be diluted by immigration They regard their Korean residents as foreigners despite being there for 600 years And Japan has no real problem with their aging society as they have no Western style concept of retirement -you continue to work full or part time as long as you can it us seen as a huge social disgrace to be idle and not working and contributing to society And they don't have to suffer a the ills of mukti culturalisim that Europe suffers .
@@ronnieince4568 .....that's fine but at some point if their young people are not having enough kids, their population will begin to decline significantly.
The answer to that is immigration.
Except for the US. Where life expectancy has actually decreased for the first time in its history since probably the 1861-65 Civil war.
diversity
@@atlanticrf ?
I wish I had less half-sane or functioning at this point grandmas in my extended family and less drain in transfers to the senior generation so that I could use social benefits like healthcare and support to settle down and procreate myself. I’m in my late twenties, not the healthiest person, my mother has yet to retire, had cancer and generally is not a granny material either. My clock is ticking. Please load off
The only age crisis I believe is there isnt enough of it.
I could already see the day when you will need to add a group for people over 100 years. I hope to be included when you do!
Human age is sort of limited to 120 years. Rarely has anyone lived past 120 even in history.
@@1mol831 Past history is not a good indicator in this case. In the past, people where not travelling in excess of the speed of sound, they where not flying. Now we think it normal for everyone. With technology, the same progress for age will become reality.
@@duprog biological reasons though, even the oldest person alive was 125, I think she’s dead or smth
@@1mol831 we have technologies now that can extend lifespans that didn't exist 10 years ago, and it is likely that we will have technologies in the future that can extend lifespans which don't exist now, so assuming that humans won't end up semi regularly passing 120 years in the future because it was rare in the past isn't necessarily a justified conclusion. We can already reverse biological aging on the cellular level, so current biological limits probably won't be what caps human life expectancy.
@@garethbaus5471 Artificial organs?
We should all live healthier so when we do get older we can still give to society. The problem today is even younger people not being able to produce due to obesity and disease.
produce what?
@@gazoombaz4424 As much value in useful goods/services as a healthy person could.
Assumptions about Africa are the most likely to be off. Birth trends also tend to stabilize better than expected. Women will figure it out in the next decade en masse that they need to have kids young if they want a career and family and more will.
So what is the end result. Let's say in 40 years from now, which countries will have serious decline in population? And I wonder what they are doing to replace the lost numbers?
African and middle eastern migrants. Beyond that, they, the elite, don't care as they would be dead.
I am scared
I am Indian
Too many elderly and not enough young people to care for them. In The US most people decide not to have children. The way our society is now, young people do not care for the elderly, they are too busy having fun and not having kids. I can't say I blame them tbh.
We need to get rid of social security tho. Make those young people see a bunch of impoverished old crones living a hard life vs a bunch of well off seniors who had 3-6 children who support them in their old age
@@LucasFernandez-fk8se It’s the opposite. I had one child, so I could afford to retire on my own money last year, at 55. If the government wants to give me money I’ll take it. If I had 3-6 kids I’d still be working to pay for their higher education.
Cost of housing, education, and healthcare is preventing young educated from having kids
@@sneckotheveggieavenger9380 indeed, education actually does have its negative sides, it’s time everyone learns about this hard and cold fact
I think it's due to how some were socialised but they also can barely afford to take care of themselves much more older people pays are low and expenses are high
If you want to get rid of old people give Boris Johnson a call.
Changes in medical technology will increase the quality of life for the +75 group. They could stay in the work force much longer.
There are issues with this also. If more people over 75 are staying in the workforce how will that affect opportunities for young people to get employment or advance their careers? Also as AI and automation takes over how many real jobs will be available to employ all of these people that are living longer?
The UN forecast are way too optimistic , they are way off? The dependency rates by 2100 are going to be horrific?
Commenting 4 algorithm
The japanese extincion 2:30 .
THE MORE WE FEED THE MORE THEY BREED🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍👨🏿🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍🦍👨🏿🦍🦍
I am not sure if this trend is going to last forever, as long as the economy is good people will have children.
Markers.
You’re very handsome.
Depressing topic.
Video: Upbeat Music.
Gotta stay positive!
It is little reckless to speculate about number of population so further in future. Many things perhaps happen which may change this uncertain prognosis. 2050 would be an optimal date cause it just in 25 years. Obvieously too big population equal wealth inequality, big poverty of mass, and disruption of natural reseorces. Above all it is harmful for climate due carbon emission and excesive exploitation of mother earth reseorces. Those who insist to having more babies because to maintain retire column system are for me ridiculus and should be removed from office.
Music is too loud and awful
Considering how we have treated the other living beings on this planet--and each other---human extinction would be a POSITIVE thing.
Nobody's talking about the number of Abortions since the 1970s in the US. And the effect this policy has had on the demographics.
This is a good thing. If we can get back down to 3 billion without using evil means, the world could be a sustainable paradise.
The only problem is negative behavioral sinks currently developing. We saw it in the Calhoun rat universes (which literally went extinct after becoming over crowded) and I think we are seeing it in human populations now.
A population 3 billion humans probably can't be reached in an ethical way anytime in the next couple of centuries.
@@garethbaus5471 the population of the world was three billion 62 years ago. From and Calhoun's rat Universe studies, we know population can drop precipitously after overpopulation. It would only take three generations at an average of 1.15 child per couple.
Most of the world is at 1.7 or less. Even India is at 2.20 which is only 0.05 over stable. The only significant area left that is growing in population is Africa.
If their standard of living comes up, that could drop rapidly.
Well, this would be good for the nature in general, less resources required to maintain the population. And people will inherit their ancestral property will grow significantly richer. Though economy may start to shrink but, per capita income would still increasing i guess
Less people means life gets harder for everyone, if half the population were to disappear now and you wanted to keep the GDP the same, you'd have to work twice as hard
Immediately upon turning 30 I was the exact median age of the population of the country in which I was living, But that shall not have remained as an indefinite constant or gone further up. Because since then the Achmeds and Yousefs and Shimbawas have come in in significant numbers and spawned sizeable little broods, along with a political Conservative resurgence telling local indentured dumbos lapping up either the Murdoch or centrist bourgeois press to chuck out more for the country.
Take back control of your country before it is nolonger your country
The problem is in the native community it's the unmarried high school dropouts that breed every single year while in the immigrant community they are all married with education and good jobs. So the quality of the next generation of the natives and immigrants are skewed.
@@aesyamazeli8804 I am not down on the lower socio-economic sector, but succeeding generations of them do not necessarily improve. There is also a decline in succeeding generations of the middle class. The Conservatives in government provide breeding incentive to people either with or without security of residential tenure. This which they should not be doing, but they only think of markets for their industries or signing people up for their quick buck real estate developments.
Do they let you have Internet where you are? Maybe not such a good idea....
I think this is ignoring catastrophic climate warming events occurring between now and 2100.
For example, by 2050, the ocean will be roughly 12" higher than today- displacing tens of millions of people. Food will become more expensive as the rain shifts off of currently arable cropland plus reduced yields. And huge areas will become uninhabitable as their wet bulb temperature exceeds 35C. Many diseases and fungi current restricted to tropical areas have already moved north close to a thousand miles. By 2050, they will be near 50 degrees latitude (the border of canada with the u.s). The melting permafrost is turning into lakes and bog and releasing methane.
It's a great analysis taken in a vacuum tho. It would just be nice to see it synthesized with other trends now.
tha vast majority of people in the world has a 0 body count of mates in their entire lifetime
Not true.
Source: YOUR MOM
She told me about how many guys she's been with last night.
3 times as many people on planet than in beginning ,entire developed world including China has non replacement population growth only in save the children countries has exponential growth perfect Storm of food production
this is depressing
Asia gradually ages out, excellent!
Everyone dies
Aging will become reversible in the coming decade or two
Married couples should have as many children as possible and raise them well if the world is to avoid demographic collapse.
no
Sexism... Women bear burden of old people?!? Ga, ha!!
There is no easy solution to this. Have more a lot more children now to support the aging population, will take years for them to have any affect, and as well, the world is already quite over populated. Have not enough children and the elders will have to continue to work to support society. But that's not how things work. Elders don't continue to work for the sake of society, but for their own needs. As in, do they have enough money to not need to work anymore, or are they forced to because they don't have enough savings.
@MikeProductions1000
Ban porn and contraception while establishing a theocratic monarchy.
@@jasonbuford496 That is a stupid idea. Though I suspect you're just trolling.
Please get rid of the music. It's awful
Noted
I can't deal with going with the flawed UN numbers. Also, the total fertility rate continues to decline & hasn't stabilized yet. So this deeply flawed presentation is only useful as a jumping off point into the conversation.
The raw data you used for your model are wrong... China's fertility rate was 1.3 in 2021, India was 2.1 and US was 1.7... The are all lower still now... Together they account for 40% of the world's population and they are declining fast... You will see the population halfed in 30 years as too many people get too old to work and sustain their lives... Too many for the system to support. Systems will fail, supply chains will be broken and a lot of people will die from things that are trivial and preventable.
Too Pessimistic but i do agree that the population will halve
though probably not in 30yrs
and automation would make it that the supply chain not needing as many people
though idk about systems like social security and welfare
those probably would fail
Our rate of population growth is falling drastically because less and less people are having children. This is a very scary future. If we don't have enough people society will collapse.
the more women become independent the less babies will born