This is an interesting observation for the table at 39:30, when you consider the Nyquist Theorem used in signal processing/reconstruction. The theorem states that in order to reconstruct a given signal, you need to sample it at at least f_max/2 sampling rate, where f_max is the maximum frequency found in the signal. If you extrapolate that thought to trend following, in order to accurately identify a trend of N discrete bars, you need a window_size of at least N/2 bars. In practice, however, it is possible to reconstruct a signal at sampling rates that are below f_max/2, with some error. I presume that's why in your table you still obtain good/decent values at window_sizes that are less than N/2. Also, 47:00 you say there's a 0.05 loss in correlation between forecasts in real data vs. the fake data of 0.90. It may be possible to parameterize the sawtooth waves and additionally randomize that parameter set in order to introduce some variability in the correlation between forecasts. Just a thought...
He is referring to the gaussian Bell curve aka Standard normal distribution. Mean equals to Zero and the Standard deviation equals 1. 90% of the data would be between -1,65 and 1,65 St.Dev 95% between -1,96 and 1,96 99% between -2,58 and 2,58 More than 3 standard deviations : tail risk and there is another distribution to estimate that risk. If you are watching this type of videos i assume that you know this by heart from university
My life changed too when I started doing this and putting money in stocks. The first few years it as really great, but this year I haven't felt like my portfolio is doing well. I have lost more than $40,000 from my portfolio the past four months, and it's now very worrisome.
Yes, I agree. I use a financial advisor too. Same person since 2020. I don't worry about whether the economy is going up or down or sideways. I always ride through.
My CFA NICOLE ANASTASIA PLUMLEE a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further... She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market..
Each market is different, you can't design one for all, I tried for 3 years doesn't work or perform poorly. Each market need to have its own, wether you call it overfittin but I'm profitable
Simply incorrect. Because YOU didn't make it work doesn't mean anything. Every CTA firm treats them all the same. The idea that "this one behaves like this" is nearly always narrative bias and recency bias.
I'm reading your books, listening to podcasts and youtube where you participates. I guess you have someting to say...but I really do not get it...words, words and words...
None ever releases the magic formulae brother, blablabla!!!! It is up to you after many trial errors finding yours, I promise that day you will not need to publish it
This is an interesting observation for the table at 39:30, when you consider the Nyquist Theorem used in signal processing/reconstruction. The theorem states that in order to reconstruct a given signal, you need to sample it at at least f_max/2 sampling rate, where f_max is the maximum frequency found in the signal. If you extrapolate that thought to trend following, in order to accurately identify a trend of N discrete bars, you need a window_size of at least N/2 bars.
In practice, however, it is possible to reconstruct a signal at sampling rates that are below f_max/2, with some error. I presume that's why in your table you still obtain good/decent values at window_sizes that are less than N/2.
Also, 47:00 you say there's a 0.05 loss in correlation between forecasts in real data vs. the fake data of 0.90. It may be possible to parameterize the sawtooth waves and additionally randomize that parameter set in order to introduce some variability in the correlation between forecasts. Just a thought...
Shannon
@@arfa9601 elaborate, por favor
at 12:30 , what does “risk is gaussian” means?
He is referring to the gaussian Bell curve aka Standard normal distribution. Mean equals to Zero and the Standard deviation equals 1.
90% of the data would be between -1,65 and 1,65 St.Dev
95% between -1,96 and 1,96
99% between -2,58 and 2,58
More than 3 standard deviations : tail risk and there is another distribution to estimate that risk.
If you are watching this type of videos i assume that you know this by heart from university
@@wajihchtiba34 thanks, i was aware of bell curve but name gaussian confused me
@@omparikh4426 i think the Guy was German
I am the first to comment on this wonderful presentation?
Why is the audio so bad on quatopian youtube clips
My life changed too when I started doing this and putting money in stocks. The first few years it as really great, but this year I haven't felt like my portfolio is doing well. I have lost more than $40,000 from my portfolio the past four months, and it's now very worrisome.
Yes, I agree. I use a financial advisor too. Same person since 2020. I don't worry about whether the economy is going up or down or sideways. I always ride through.
Oh, really? I have never thought of that as an option. Can I ask who it is you've been working with? I bet I could use some help myself.
My CFA NICOLE ANASTASIA PLUMLEE a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further... She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market..
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Each market is different, you can't design one for all, I tried for 3 years doesn't work or perform poorly. Each market need to have its own, wether you call it overfittin but I'm profitable
Simply incorrect. Because YOU didn't make it work doesn't mean anything. Every CTA firm treats them all the same. The idea that "this one behaves like this" is nearly always narrative bias and recency bias.
they are full of brown sticky stuff XD
*its...
I'm reading your books, listening to podcasts and youtube where you participates. I guess you have someting to say...but I really do not get it...words, words and words...
idiot
this is for high IQ ppl
None ever releases the magic formulae brother, blablabla!!!! It is up to you after many trial errors finding yours, I promise that day you will not need to publish it