Why Josh Brown doubled his position in Uber
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- Опубліковано 6 лют 2020
- CNBC's "Fast Money: Halftime Report" team and Shannon Saccocia of Boston Private Wealth Management talk with Josh Brown of Ritholtz Management about his position in Uber after the company reported its latest earnings.
Shares of Uber rose 9.5% Friday, a day after the company forecasted reaching a key profitability goal sooner than expected. The stock is on pace for its best day ever since debuting in May.
The move added $6 billion to Uber’s market valuation, bringing it to $69.3 billion. During the trading day, it briefly went above the market cap it reached at the end of its first trading day, which was $69.7 billion.
In its fourth quarter 2019 earnings call Thursday, CEO Dara Khosrowshahi told analysts the company would move its EBITDA profitability target to Q4 2020, sooner than his previously stated goal of becoming profitable for the full year of 2021. The announcement sent Uber’s stock up as much as 10% in after hours trading.
Uber reported accelerating revenue growth on an annualized basis of 37% up from 30% in the previous quarter. The company beat the Refinitiv consensus estimate of $4.06 billion in quarterly revenue, reporting $4.07 billion. It also reported a better-than-expected loss per share: 64 cents excluding items, compared with a 68 cent loss projected in the Refinitiv survey.
The company reported a net loss attributable to the company in 2019 of $8.51 billion, mainly due to stock-based compensation. It expects its losses to be less pronounced than analyst estimates for 2020. Uber forecasted a $1.35 billion loss at the middle range before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, lower than the FactSet analyst consensus of a $2.83 billion loss.
In notes Friday morning, analysts highlighted the new EBITDA profitability target, with many putting a buy or outperform rating on the stock. Analysts at MKM Partners, who upgraded the stock to a buy rating and moved their price target from $34 to $45, wrote that incremental margins on rides revenue have contributed to the accelerated profitability target.
“To date, we think Uber was being valued as if it is going out of business - either due to ongoing cash burn or due to regulatory environment,” the analysts wrote. “In our view, the trendline from the past couple of quarters provides a firm valuation floor on Uber shares. This should help with lingering negative sentiment related to unclear regulatory environment.”
Raymond James analysts said they “see the narrative changing” on the heels of the new profitability target combined with positive long-term margin targets for Uber’s ride-sharing and food delivery businesses.
“Uber is well-positioned for~20%growth and expanding margins for the foreseeable future,” they wrote, reiterating an outperform rating and $54 price target.
Davidson analysts, who maintained a neutral rating on the stock but raised their price target from $35 to $43, said the new profitability goal “does assume modest improvements in the competitive environment but doesn’t require further big changes to UBER’s geo/market footprint. UBER has levers to hit this new timetable, but, given the fluid competitive/regulatory backdrop UBER still faces in most of its markets, deftly balancing healthy growth and this new profit timeline may prove difficult.”
Uber has faced several regulatory challenges in international markets including London and Colombia. It also faces domestic challenges to its business model from California’s new law that requires gig economy workers to be reclassified as employees instead of contractors.
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![Lp. Последняя Реальность #107 РОДНОЙ ДОМ [Финал] • Майнкрафт](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/IK3QKzKUlHM/mqdefault.jpg)
They call him dara because they can't say his last name right lol
Loaded up on Uber myself 🚀👍🏼
Why does he say at 3:40 that there won't be any compeititors in either the rides or food delivery space? Tonnes have been popping up all over the place?
food delivery space is tooo tough to make profit, so not much new can be expected.... in ride share uber is the netflix...
Ubers main competitors is every teenager with a bike willing to do delivery. The business is trash
I like Josh Brown, been following him for recent years, he is smart and gives new perspectives which proves to be right
The gig economy would keep Uber and so forth in business for years to come !
Mark Cuban was wrong to say this isn't a growth stock
Careem was a sleeper acquisition.
Brandon Derrick Middle East and Africa expertise with over 30mil subs? amazing deal for Uber.
In a business environment where everyone is fixated 👀 on Asia and China, Dara is making moves in the Middle East and Africa markets that are gonna be a major growth driver for decades to come.
As someone who travels a lot around the world, I have seen multiple competitors of Uber worldwide. And yes, the market is growing so Uber grows also. But I think its share on the market will shrink.
Asian markets are lost for Uber completely, in Europe I personally use only competitors of Uber as they are better. USA and North Amerika is strong, but that's it.
Is a survivors game, all those companies are also losing money.. Uber ride sharing business is actually profitable already, Uber eats and Uber freight and other parts of the business is what makes the company have loses on the books.
Uber owns stakes in all of those competitors globally. Owns Karim. Owns stake in Didi. Owns stake in Yandex
Well said
As an uber Investor I would be concerned about Teslas robo network that they will Launch in the next few year
Even when Tesla reaches full-autonomy, it'll be years before legislation passes to allow unoccupied vehicles roaming the street. Uber business to me is more about the gig-workers they have onboarded to the platform. They'll simply pivot their business as autonomous technology reaches adoption.
@@redvsbluehockey right it's a platform model between drivers and passengers, but when there is no driver anymore it becomes kind of redundant. Tesla will launch a ride sharing program before full autonomy as Elon announced. Uber will be doomed. I rather stick to Tesla because they have real innovation power, cult status already and are disrupting several industries at once. This stock is Apple in 2008.
@@fynntrompeter159 I'm an owner of TSLA stock and believe it is the better buy, but over the next 5-10 years.
However, given Uber's current share price and their focus on moving to profits, I think there is a very strong possibility Uber could be the better buy over the next 3-5 years.
Even if Tesla launches a ridesharing service, it will take several years before they are able to get the number of drivers in markets that would make the service convenient for all consumers. Also, changing consumer behavior is not easy.. otherwise we would have seen a lot more Uber competitors.
Heck, I think it's likely they would do business together, where you as a Tesla driver, via the Telsa app, can pick up riders who use the Uber app "Uber X" option. Then Telsa/Uber split some of the fees.
Honestly, I see Uber as an entirely different business that can easily adapt. Like the Uber eats business, which could grow substantially in the future. I just don't see Tesla owners driving food around.
That all said. I firmly believe Tesla will be the most successful company of this decade, it is, after all, a company that literally produces a product that is out of this world!
The tech that drives Uber, Lyft, etc isn't that difficult. I can't see how in the long run they will be successful.
Javier Zapata You don’t need a complex technology to be successful. You need to be in a business economic that creates monopoly naturally and be the largest scale in the competition. Not saying Uber will be a good investment tho.
I do not understand how they would lose money. What is their overhead? Nothing.... it is just an app people use. They take %30 from drivers. Drivers own their own cars. Something is fishy
They C level executives and marketing positions earn a great living. They also spend a lot on advertising/marketing
legal costs. a lot of lobbying and dealing with regulators.
They are profitable in their rides business, it's things like their food delivery which apparently causes them to bleed money.
@@chrisginoc they get the majority of their compensation thru options, safe to say they not doing as well as they could
We are talking about 5 billion dollar loss. I think their CEOs paying themselves big $ to the point they bankrupt their own company
I agree, still, I must remind myself that autonomous driving will be difficult north of a certain geographical point. What works in warmer climates .. it's a challenge in colder zones.
great point, it will take like 2040 for autonomuous vehicles to reach 10% of total miles...
Winchester comes out with the share ride there's no way you guys can make it you raise your prices
How ironic he should mention Tesla when it's clear he knows nothing about what's going on with them, and they will take Uber out if things continue. People have no idea if they don't go look at the investor presentation from April last year. This dynamic benefits people that follow the company because we're able to get in the stock before people realize what is happening. The way the cell phone and then smart phone changed everything, Tesla is on that track, the scope is multi-dimensional.
Uber like competitors are popping up in every country. Easy tech to duplicate?
.......not all are imitators of Uber. .there were others working on a similar app a decade ago and observing proper processes and laws ; uber simply disregarded laws and elbowed their way to the lead.
Worldwide pandemic is fantastic for people wanting to get in strangers cars...
Especially after people fart
Yep. A good cause for Uber to launch driverless
The thing is without the drivers and there own vehicles, who is going to purchase the upfront cost of to have operating cars going from point A to point B? Is Uber going to start buying models or start making models to do these autonomous drives? I know everybody uses Uber and that it really doesn't have much competition. But if the end goal is to have no drivers, then who will be taking the hardest hit which is the vehicle cost itself to perform these tasks. Do I think autonomous is the future, yes. But for a company that doesn't make cars to say they want autonomous driving really seems like a high fruit to grab for. But thats what these tech companies do.
Probably Tesla will buy uber
Great product. But how do you invest in a company that is planning on losing money for 10+ years till robot cars take over? Their growth is limited too. There are only so many taxi drivers to put out of business.
You guys are crazy you guys just don't see Tesla come and he going to lose
Uber isn't going anywhere if anything Uber will buy out lyft and both Uber and Tesla will dominate the ridesharing market. Uber is also more diversified than Tesla i.e Uber eats , freight, work,
Well said
The 22% split mr brown discusses in this video is incorrect and I can provide data to back it up. Uber's take is probably closer to 38% on average, but it constantly is changing. The randomness of the split makes it difficult to get consistent numbers, and uber probably does that on purpose because they don't want the public to know what their take rate actually is.
In trucking industry Uber cut down detention pay from $75 to $40,Truck not used(tonu) from $250 to $150 and that will be their profit 1Q,2Q,3Q,4Q in 2020 good luck Uber Freight
Watching this the first time on 04/03/2020. Just hilarious.
I'm all for never underestimating technology, and I get that we may have fully autonomous driving in 10 years, but to make your investment decisions based on hopes and dreams is nuts. It is way to early to give people financial advice based on cars driving themselves. It will happen one day, but we don't know when or if Uber is going to be there. This is the kind of speculation that hints at a major bubble. Sounds like the roaring 20's all over again. Well, it's actually the roaring 20's again, just a century later. We didn't learn much from the last time. Still out here speculating on hopes and dreams.
Wasn't it the movie "Back to the future" where they thought we would have flying cars by now?
The 1920s don't have shit on the 2020s. History doesn't repeat itself so stop living and basing your analysis on the past.
Why would anyone take Uber once autonomy arrives? Unless you assume Uber will be the first to solve autonomy, which is unlikely.
who will make autonomous commercial... your papa?
Uber is doomed. Tesla will take over the business with just an update lol
@@fynntrompeter159 As a Tesla and Uber investor, that is an incorrect statement.. Not every owner will put up their cars for autonomy and not every city will be onboard at the same time.. Not to mention that autonomy isn't coming to SE Asia any time soon..
@@revaddict Firstly Tesla will launch its own ride sharing service soon before full autonomy. Secondly China welcomed Tesla with open arms and they are pretty open about technology. China could be a country in that a robo network could get a permission. And once it worked in one country, others will follow soon.
Everyone has a opinion like a ass..
5 to 10 years Tesla self driving cars will make uber goto zero
..........yes, Uber can't prosper with introduction of self drive cars.
Or any other manufacturer too
I bought it at 30.
Stay long. 10 years from now we will look back and realize Uber was the next Amazon
@@chrisginoc yes keep adding to your position on the pullbacks.
Buy silver
They have no presence in China
@@hollyyates554 what does it mean
Uber about 19$
What do you think?
Buy it!
I added my position of UBER as well!
Like always they know nothing, talking about microsoft being the big tech company thats gona drive tech forward? *Elon*AI?
The host should have asked what size was Josh Brown's initial position in Uber to get a sense of his level of conviction. I would never follow Brown's advice anyway though. The guy is just a bullshitter.
Get out of Uber while you have the chance. It’s not a model that will survive.
why?
Littalwabbit , they are not vertically integrated.
shepherdsknoll8 what do you mean by that? They are well diversified
Josh Brown doubled his position AFTER is jumped in the past 4 weeks. Where was he over the Summer. NO ONE KNOWS where a stock is going-- even Josh Brown.
This guy should not worry about Uber, but about joining the cast of My 600lbs Life.
He's not even half that weight and he is excellent at his job. Should take some notes to go along with that attempted humor.
@@brandonderrick006 someone has a gay crush!
Josh is actually really good, you should listen to him. And I’m guessing 210lbs tops.
drunkensessions naw a wealth crush I’m not gay ask your mom. I just like his advice and don’t think he’s that fat your joke was lame.
nice stock is now more than cut in half
No competition? How about Tesla?? And if/when they replace the drivers with autonomous, they will have to spend billions of dollars to purchase vehicles. They will have to purchase real estate to house them and hire a fleet of mechanics and cleaners to maintain them. A doomed business
dont simply tesla for everything... only if they focus on cars they will do well, other wise tesla will FALL... elon knows that.. it will take atleast 2040 for autonomous to show up 10% of total miles...
was an ez pick...way to undervalued
lol, he's donezo now.. double down at $40 and probably sold at $15
And then stock when to $31 because of the coronavirus
this guy talks about autonomous but forgets about to mention tesla's ambitous plans with its own autonomous network.
They don't have the dat and resources Uber has. Can Tesla achieve it? Perhaps.
Chris G lmao. TSLA has more real driving data than any other autonomous driving companies combined. Go read something you clown
@@shakespear7675 Relax shake n bake. I meant as in taxi like transportation data.
Uber at $51 as of today...
This guy Josh thinks the world of Uber. Anyway Uber has been at this 10 years and the only way they can make money is nickel and dime the drivers. Meanwhile there is a looming technology that could disrupt Uber and Lyft and it is NOT autonomous vehicles. It is called block chain. Uber, and for that matter Lyft, are nothing more than the middleman. There is already new technologies and new ideas that are going to make Uber and Lyft obsolete seen. The transportation business is always a cut throat business. This notion that somehow Uber is immune to this fact is absurd.
How is blockchain disruptive to Uber's business?
Hey V.K. there is over a hundred post on this video so get a life and go follow someone else. You nothing more than annoying when I have a right to voice my opinion.
@@frankgatsbybeats3999 Simple Uber is nothing more than a middleman that facilitates taking peoples butt's from point A to point B. Uber has some what figured out how to do it efficiently. However, the question is there some way to do it even more efficiently. I do not know but it has been suggested that block chain technology could be the answer. You should read about economist Paul Geroski about the rise and fall of market domination. The question is not whether Uber dominates rideshare but instead does Uber dominate getting people from point A to B because the consumer will jump ship in a heart beat if there is a better way.
@V K Well I appreciate that you are amused. I have only begun to scratch the surface.
wait for this Mega partnership with Tesla/Uber when autonomous becomes real in 10 years or so.
Tesla have no incentive to partner up with Uber. They will make Uber go bankrupt they have their own vehicles and their own technology Robo taxis say goodbye to Uber within the next 5 years maximum 8 years lol go Tesla
I highly, highly doubt Tesla will partner with Uber. Tesla would probably prefer to build their own rideshare platform with their own vehicles
Because tesla cant make a simple app UBER is useless
why invest in uber? they can go out of business any day. it’s no certainty in this type of business. Why risk your money?! buy tesla!
Smith Js why not buy both??
People used to say the same thing about tesla mate
Next Correction ,it will go down 30% over night
Doubled his position "today"...yeah right...this means he bought two shares today and will buy when it drops...crooks
Explain plz. Why would it drop if he expects it to go up?
@@teufelhunden8308 why would anyone ever tell you how to make money! They will only tell you so you can buy at a crap price and pick it up when you are at a loss.
What a joke. Uber loses $1 billion a quarter. This company would go under if it could not barrow money. The only positive this business has is that the management team is beloved by the analyst community and institutional money managers.
Rubbing shoulders with the rich and powerful is not a business strategy.
Hope he has a tight stop loss, buying UBER now is chasing after a 50%+ breakout.
Robô táxis Will kill this is 30 days it’s a cash burning cow cash burner 🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️😂😂😂😂😂
p;ump it babee!
RIP
I used to take Uber once a week. Now I order my groceries from Amazon. I eat fresh simple meals at home. I don't order uber eats. Waste of money.
You can't trust restaurant food
I've never used Uber eats; I can see businesses using it for convenience but I'm too cheap to use it personally.
@@nofurtherwest3474 it's so expensive. I still take an uber once a month or so but i walk everywhere.
@@sunnycheba I use regular Uber at times, like if I'm going out for a night on the town and don't want to deal with parking, or if I can't get a ride to the airport. It's very convenient. But yes expensive if doing it often. I do think it can be a good business; they have to reduce costs. Thoughts?
your first meal of the day at work should be oatmeal with blueberries, cinnamon and honey. Use the microwave at work. Never pay for meals at work. Long live you.
Tesla RoboTaxi comes in 2 years ... Bye, bye Uber :'(
SELL SELL SELL
I’m shorting Uber like crazy
good move but they won't go bankrupt until Tesla will take over with their Roble taxis might be another 5 to 8 years out
@@erickhanes7517 No way Tesla will bankrupt Uber if anything Uber will purchase lyft and both Uber and Tesla will dominate the ridesharing market. Also Uber have advantages that Tesla doesn't for instance Uber is on your phone and is collecting your phone data. They know what restaurants, bars, retailers you shop etc. They also know your internet searches and therefore can sell all of that data to companies for advertising, marketing and research dollars.
Paul Kieffer if you want to lose your money that's all on you just remember I told you
Erick Hanes exactly. Tesla is coming but not for a few years. Uber can hit $60+ before they start tanking back down. Better to short ford or GM
Cut your losses Josh
22% goes to uber
Tesla will beat it
fred hernandez well of course it will, but it might be a good short term
Tesla can't beat nio or byd
holly yates why not? Tesla is far ahead of nio
holly yates I like both of those, but I don’t think it will beat Tesla
I have 15% of portfolio in Tesla and 5% in Uber, like the long term vision of both companies
Load up the rest on cat food. You'll need it
Uber is a narrow moat stock and there is no long term differentiation it can make. Too easy to replicate.
you couldve said that about google in their early days it was just a search engine
crypto all day
OK piker living in a basement
Just Fed QE, nothing to do with earnings. Bitcoin is up 60% since Fed restarted QE. In Bitcoin terms the stock is barely up. Only a fool will buy stocks and loose money in real money terms (Bitcoin). In last 10 years every single stock in S&P 500 has lost 99% value against Bitcoin (which went from $0.0001 to currently nearly $10k). The economic crash is already is happening, it's just that in fiat money terms you don't see it. How can a system where millions of people will be put out of jobs be good for economy? Labor force participation rates have collapsed, and real median income has cratered in last 20 years. People who complain about economy are not lying, if you just look at the economy in real money terms.
There is the gold standard... also
@@abyteuser6297 And Gold standard is very easy to fool. How can you ever know that some Central authority has the Gold that it claims it has? History has shown multiple times how Fold standard eventually ended up as fiat standard as commerce grew - Roma empire, mid century Europe, Germany, and now US and rest of the world. In Bitcoin you have your own sovereignty, and are your own bank. And there is no need of a third party to conduct trade at global scale, without loosing your sovereignty. While I admit Gold will still maintain some purchasing power, it is hard to see how commerce can be conducted on Global scale trustlessly and risk free. For local trade Gold works perfectly fine, but Bitcoin solves the problem of Global trade.
@Saami Zakir Copper is not money. Niether can you carry it with you, and neither can you pay anyone with copper. Copper is driven by industrial demand, which is non existent, and hence copper is collapsing. Not to mention the Stock to Flow ratio of Copper is ridiculously low, and the moment the prices rise, producers will ramp up and push the prices right down. This is why Copper is up merely 8X in nominal terms in last 60 years, whereas Bitcoin is up 80000X in last 10 years. The sole purpose of money is money itself and not some utility, and when money is hard (like Bitcoin) there is no need to make high risk investments, and take on counterparty risk, confiscation risk, or political risk. Fact is you can leave your country with a Billion dollars worth of Bitcoin without anyone even noticing, which is impossible with Gold or Copper.
Bitcoin was created so people can gamble all their life savings.
@@william213la And make shit load of money. 2011 $3, $2012 $18, 2013 $200, 2014 $200, 2015 $200, $2016 $1000, 2017 $20000, 2018 $3000, 2019, $7000, and right now $10k. Wow that is so bad! Anyone with even a little bit of brain and some degree of patience knows the trend is only up, and logically it makes sense because of Bitcoin halving every 4 years and Global central bank QE. Anyone who recommends Stocks or Gold over Bitcoin should also tell them, that it took stocks 15 years (2000 to 2015 to reclaim highs of 4500 on Nasdaq with Nasdaq at $1000 in 2009), and nearly 30 years for Gold (from $864 in 1980 to 2008 to reclaim previous highs). Gold is still currently down 20% from 2011 highs of $1900 (and went as low as $1000 in 2015). The longest Bitcoin ever took to reclaim previous highs is 3 years. It is obvious you do not value your freedom. People who value security over freedom have neither.
Sorry but Tesla will crush Uber in the next 3-4 years with their taxi service.
TransCanada Weather Tesla will be amazing, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be room for a succesful Uber, in rides, eats and other categories.
Uber is dead