I happened to watch Emilia Perez two days ago since it premiered in France And Selena's performance still gives me chills, she has plenty of baity scenes Karla is a revelation in this film Zoe is definitely the co-lead actress and her character is more subtle compared to the two other actresses. Hopefully they all can make it.
Came here to say this. His first nomination in The World According to Garp was incredible and well deserved. His following nomination for Terms of Endearment was just riding on the movie's coattails .
My predictions 1. Samuel L. Jackson 2. Clarence Maclin 3. Kieran Culkin 4. Stanley Tucci 5. Denzel Washington Next in Line: Edward Norton, John Lithgow, Drew Starkey, Jeremy Strong, Harris Dickinson Best Supporting Actresss 1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor 2. Danielle Deadwyler 3. Zoe Saldana 4. Tilde Swinton 5. Selena Gomez (you read that right) Next in Line: Isabella Rossellini, Natasha Lyonne, Lesley Manville, Joan Chen Note: I’m personally not buying The Brutalist as an Oscar player, it just seems like a typical indie movie to me.
@@CAIQUEPEREIRADIAS She’s in Emilia Perez, which is likely to be a big contender, could easily get GG and SAG, and I’m not sure I buy the other contenders outside of my top five (Rossellini is apparently only in a scene, Lyonne and Chen’s movies are non-factors, and Manville’s character isn’t even in the book and she could easily be a glorified cameo).
I really think people might be overestimating Jackson. The role is not *that* big and there's a very strong chance Deadwyler's performance could overwhelm, and if Jackson's not flashy enough to steal focus, I think he might even have some difficulty in getting the nomination. (Plus he did just get the honorary; could be that there isn't a rush to laud him now that he has that).
Many actors with small, seemingly insignificant roles got Oscar noms before. Thinking of Judy Dench in Belfast, Jackie Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook, Sam Rockwell in Vice.
@@RB-.- This is my thought as well. At this time last year everyone thought Past Lives was a shoo in....and it did end up making it into Best Picture, but it definitely wasn't the juggernaut that everyone predicted it to be early on.
Fernanda Montenegro (I’m still here) plays the main character in the third act, with older age and suffering from Alzheimer’s disease, it will certainly be a very emotional role.
I love that the supporting nominations aren’t as obvious this year, keeps it interesting! I’d be interested to see what Gaga in supporting would mean for the race, but for right now, I’m predicting Deadwyler 👍
I wouldn’t be so doubtful over A Complete Unknown (on paper that is), coz since it’s a Searchlight movie, & say if Nightbitch doesn’t turn out good & if A Real Pain ends up being too small & gets that lone screenplay nod, they’re gonna wanna push Mangold’s movie (bare in mind too, Searchlight almost always has at least one movie firmly in the Best Picture lineup)
I could see Selena Gomez getting nominated everywhere but miss the Oscar nomination. I think industry awards will be an uphill battle for her the same way it can be for Sandler or Efron, so I won’t count on it yet. Although they weren’t in Best Picture movies.
From what I've heard, Lithgow is apperantly the juicy role in Conclave while Tucci's character isn't that interesting. Tucci might just be Matt Damon in Oppenheimer
Also, I think Natasha Lyonne can make a case for a nomination. I'm getting Brian Tyree Henry/Jessie Buckley/ America Ferrera vibes. Someone always surprises every year with one nomination. The sole CC nominee stat still stands. She could be one to look out for.
After reading Queer, I think Drew Starkey could absolutely be nominated. His performance is almost in direct contrast to what Daniel Craig will probably do. Subtle, withdrawn, soft-spoken, naive, yet still slightly seductive and he does get really melancholy towards the end. Think Steven Yuen in Burning (I know he didn’t get nominated, but just think of the caliber of that performance) You could also think Timothee in CMBYN.
20:57 Regarding the emily blunt reference Conclave's performance at the oscars will depend on critical reception and box office (emily with oppenheimmer had both) The critical reception for the film won't be able to get nominations for the three actors, if the movie flops And realistically a film about choosing another pope does not scream good box office numbers
9:15 Denzel Washington has Never been nominated for a Bafta… ever. Not even for Fences, Training Day, or Glory. So if he’s nominated for G2 you might as well give him the win.
I know A Real Pain has gotten very good reviews, but I'm not confident in Kieran Culkin's Emmy momentum to last long enough to actually become a factor.
TV success never really translates to Oscars. Claire Foy won every TV award possible for The Crown and she got snubbed for First Man and Women Talking. Also people were delulu about Sadie Sink in The Whale because she got a viral scene in Stranger Things LOL
@@pb.j.1753 To be fair, Sadie Sink was very good in Stranger Things especially Season 4. Her performance in The Whale pales in comparison. It just wasn't Oscar-worthy.
Supporting Actress 1. Saoirse Ronan (Blitz) 2. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) 3. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) 4. Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) 5. Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown) Supporting Actor 1. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) 2. Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) 3. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) 4. Stanley Tucci (Conclave) 5. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
I’m sure The Brutalist is, as you say, a man movie but Felicity Jones isn’t the only woman in it either. Long shot I know but what if Jones campaigned for lead and someone else comes out of nowhere for Supporting, like Emma Laird or maybe previous Corbet actors like Martin or Cassidy? Probably not but my point is there are options depending on the size of the roles.
Edward Norton getting a supporting actor nom would be so cool. Pete Seeger is a gregarious enough personality that is ripe for a meaty standout performance.
My current predictions on the App (as of 25.8): *Best Supporting Actor:* 15. Jeremy Pope (The Collaboration) 14. Javier Bardem (Dune: Part Two) 13. John Lithgow (Conclave) 12. Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora) 11. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) 10. Austin Butler (Dune: Part Two) 9. J.K. Simmons (Juror No. 2) 8. Drew Starkey (Queer) 7. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) 6. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Harris Dickinson (Blitz) 4. Stanley Tucci (Conclave) 3. Keiran Culkin (A Real Pain) 2. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) 1. Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) *Best Supporting Actress:* 17. Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown) 16. Catherine Keener (Joker: Folie à Deux) 15. Margaret Qualley (The Substance) 14. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) 13. Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) 12. Rebecca Ferguson (Dune: Part Two) 11. Rachel Sennott (Saturday Night) 10. Joan Chen (Didi) 9. Lesley Manville (Queer) 8. Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) 7. Toni Collette (Juror No. 2) 6. Maria Bakalova (The Apprentice) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Saoirse Ronan (Blitz)* 4. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) 3. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) 2. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) 1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) *for those of you keeping track, I used to have Ronan in lead. I only changed that very recently. I now have Gascón in lead instead. P.S. look me up on The Awards Expert app @poihpio98 for more wrong predictions and even wronger favourites.
@@lisacox306 yea but that was NEVER happening even if it did get a theatrical release, genuinely one of the stupidest predictions I have ever seen them make and the fact other “awards experts” had the same prediction is beyond me
If Denzel's snubbed for a BAFTA nomination? Those racists haven't nominated him ONCE! No ifs about it. Don't expect that from them ever. Globes and SAG should be enough for him, if the movie's any good.
They are not racists. BAFTAs are almost always correct. They just do not go with the most campaigned performances of the year. They go with the actual best of the year.
Zoe’s been one of my favorite actresses for years. I can’t say she’s “underrated” because obviously she’s been in literally the highest-grossing movies of all time but I think her talent and versatility has gone underrated for years, maybe even because of the commercial success. I would LOVE to hear her name on nomination morning ❤️
John Lithgow for the win. He has been overlooked for years now.. he should have at least 10 nomination in his belt. And it would be greater if supporting actress goes to Glenn Close for "the deliverance".
Joan Chen’s performance was Oscar-worthy. There were a lot of looks and moments of silence that spoke volumes. She was fantastic and I hope she’ll be recognized. Loved Didi! 29:23
Lithgow has already had plenty of success with awards and he’s gotten 2 Oscar noms already 😅 The only way they’d nominate him is if: 1. He has a standout role in the film 2. The list of potential noms becomes smaller and they just say why not, let’s nominate him
You need to take test screenings with a grain of salt. Goodfellas and Seven had disastrous test screenings. Napoleon had some test screeners calling it a masterpiece. It turned out to be a piece of crap and Phoenix delivered one of the worst performances of his career.
Part of me wishes Exhibiting Forgiveness would be in the conversation for some of these. Both John Earl Jelks and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor could feasibly score supporting nominations for that movie.
they r. re- shooting or changing a scene for A Complete Unknown 8/22 so it may get abetter test they r still working on it. so many actors that haven't been nominated crazy
This is what I have (alphabetical) Best Supporting Actor 1.Kieran Culkin-A Real Pain 2.Samuel L. Jackson-The Piano Lesson 3.Clarence Maclin-Sing Sing 4.Stanley Tucci-Conclave 5.Denzel Washington-Gladiator II Best Supporting Actress 1.Danielle Deadwyler-The Piano Lesson 2.Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor-Nickel Boys 3.Saoirse Ronan-Blitz 4.Isabella Rossellini-Conclave 5.Tilda Swinton-The Room Next Door
For a self-proclaimed "Oscar Expert", it's disappointing that you are unaware that a nod for "Conclave" would NOT be John Lithgow's first. You are sead wrong that he has "never been nominated". Checkout Lithgow's performances in "The World According To Garp" and "Terms Of Endearment". 🤨
Will Smith (before that infamous slap) actually pulled off a similar feat recently. KING RICHARD was in fact his first ever BAFTA nomination. Morgan Freeman has never been nominated there either.
Have either of them read Conclave? Yes movies are different than the books but Rosselinni's character is not in the book much. I think they might have changed movie from the book the big twist in the book is a PG-13 subject and Rosselinni's impact is a PG-13 storyline too not PG.
Unrelated lead comment but I’ve been thinking that Daniel Craig could take BAFTA and GG, while Colman Domingo takes CC and SAG ?? Idk just been on my mind
I don’t know why would Danielle Deadwyler be put in the Best Supporting Actress race for “The Piano Lesson”. I’ve read the play and her character Berniece is arguably the main protagonist as the entire story is centered around her character and her brother Boy Willie. Danielle Deadwyler should be in the Best Actress category instead.
I think some audiences are gonna think The Brutalist is pretentious. 3 & 1/2 hours with an intermission will probably strike more populist voters as a little obnoxious and film bro-esque. It could be great and get nominations, but I don’t think it’ll be unanimously beloved.
Samuel L. Jackson might go Lead as he's billed above John David Washington. Didn't people also originally predict Chadwick Boseman for Supporting in Ma Rainey's? 🤔 PS: Where's Rebecca Ferguson for Dune: Part 2? I thought she was MVP, acting-wise. It's one of year's biggest films.
They did once! In Spike Lee's movie Mo Better Blues (1990) Denzel plays the lead role of a trumpet player in a nightclub band. While Samuel L. Jackson was one of the henchmen who hurt people who owed money. Spike Lee plays Denzel's manager who has a gambling problem, so Samuel L. Jackson has to rough him up a bit lol.
@@pb.j.1753 I’d argue the opposite actually. SNL is very respected by the industry, shown by the big stars they still get to guest and the cast members being cast left and right in Hollywood🤷♂️
@@RobertBurns71405might be true but anyone who guest stars on there is promoting a movie or an album. It’s a huge tool for advertising more than anything.
BAFTA doesn't give a single flying f**k about Africian American stories, Sing Sing is not getting noms. SAG isn't nominated Maclin an unknown, SAG loves actors. You guys are getting ridiculous.
SLJ's role in the piano lesson isn't that good or sizeable (this isn't speculation, I've seen the film and the play when it was on broadway). These overwhelming win predictions for him feel like something that will age poorly. I think he'll get a filler nom at best but missing entirely wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. It's Deadwyler's movie I'm all in on Maclin. Feels like voters will trip over themselves to vote for that narrative
@@qqe1019I mean not giving it an awards push nor theatrical release. They bought it at TIFF a full year ago and are not doing anything with it except for dumping it on the service without any special marketing nor effort.
@@tmovies92The Paris cinema is owned by Netflix LOL I need to specify Netflix is not giving it a significant theatrical window like they gave to their priorities Maestro and Power of the Dog. His Three Daughters hits limited cinemas and online in the same month. Also it is not shown in theaters outside of the US, which is the case with their priorities.
I do think we might need to consider A Rossellini win. Even if she doesn’t do much a lot of the winners in this category didn’t do a lot either. She’s an Hollywood royalty and could have big international support. Something in the veins of Laura Dern, Allison Janney or JLC.
I would love to see you discuss the effect of The Piano Lesson being snubbed for picture would have on Samuel L Jackson's frontrunner position. Christopher Plummer is the only supporting actor winner for a non-best picture nominated film since the academy expanded the number of best picture nominees. It is still entirely possible but it's a factor I haven't seen brought up much.
I happened to watch Emilia Perez two days ago since it premiered in France
And Selena's performance still gives me chills, she has plenty of baity scenes
Karla is a revelation in this film
Zoe is definitely the co-lead actress and her character is more subtle compared to the two other actresses.
Hopefully they all can make it.
John Lithgow has 2 Oscar nominations, this wouldn’t be his first
The world according to garp and terms of endearment, back to back
Oh you right my b
Came here to say this. His first nomination in The World According to Garp was incredible and well deserved. His following nomination for Terms of Endearment was just riding on the movie's coattails .
I thought they were talking about Guy Pierce
Zoe Saldana & Isabella Rossellini..
That moment when you, a queen, come across another queen, and discuss how to best maximize your joint slay.
A mother off if you will.
Isabelle rossellini is Hollywood royalty just like jamie lee curtis, so dont underestimate her
John Lithgow has been nominated for two Oscars before, so Conclave wouldn’t be his first nom
Exactly. They’ve done this MULTIPLE times now and it’s just embarrassing
@@Lamidemonami7891 not really, simple mistake
@@TheClubOrtiz It’s definitely embarrassing when your channel is called The Oscar “Expert”
@@je8607 lol fair point
@@je8607Exactly. They can do some research.
My predictions
1. Samuel L. Jackson
2. Clarence Maclin
3. Kieran Culkin
4. Stanley Tucci
5. Denzel Washington
Next in Line: Edward Norton, John Lithgow, Drew Starkey, Jeremy Strong, Harris Dickinson
Best Supporting Actresss
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor
2. Danielle Deadwyler
3. Zoe Saldana
4. Tilde Swinton
5. Selena Gomez (you read that right)
Next in Line: Isabella Rossellini, Natasha Lyonne, Lesley Manville, Joan Chen
Note: I’m personally not buying The Brutalist as an Oscar player, it just seems like a typical indie movie to me.
The brutalist is a sprawling period epic not an indie film lol
After the festivals everyone is going to put the brutalist in their top 5 100%
why selena gomez?
@@CAIQUEPEREIRADIAS She’s in Emilia Perez, which is likely to be a big contender, could easily get GG and SAG, and I’m not sure I buy the other contenders outside of my top five (Rossellini is apparently only in a scene, Lyonne and Chen’s movies are non-factors, and Manville’s character isn’t even in the book and she could easily be a glorified cameo).
6:33 Edward Norton is always a standout btw.
I really think people might be overestimating Jackson. The role is not *that* big and there's a very strong chance Deadwyler's performance could overwhelm, and if Jackson's not flashy enough to steal focus, I think he might even have some difficulty in getting the nomination. (Plus he did just get the honorary; could be that there isn't a rush to laud him now that he has that).
Nickel Boys and Piano Lesson are just not going to be good enough as movies.
Many actors with small, seemingly insignificant roles got Oscar noms before. Thinking of Judy Dench in Belfast, Jackie Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook, Sam Rockwell in Vice.
@@RB-.- This is my thought as well. At this time last year everyone thought Past Lives was a shoo in....and it did end up making it into Best Picture, but it definitely wasn't the juggernaut that everyone predicted it to be early on.
@@RB-.-why would Nickel Boys not be good?
@@RB-.-What exactly are you basing that on? Have you actually seen it?
Fernanda Montenegro (I’m still here) plays the main character in the third act, with older age and suffering from Alzheimer’s disease, it will certainly be a very emotional role.
I‘m Still Here is an underdog right now. It could surprise. A good sign is that Sony Pictures Classics will release it.
I can see Clarence Maclin winning at SAG
I’m predicting Jamie Lee Curtis for Borderlands 🙏🙏🙏
@@joshhuntermovies 🤣
Cue Jameson laugh
Someone has to
Umm… 😅
I know you are joking but I thought Borderlands was a good movie. Reviewers sometimes are out to lunch on movies.
praying for zoe and selena
Harris Dickinson in Babygirl is more likely to me than for Blitz.
John Lithgow received two supporting nominations back in the 80s for The World According to Garp (1983) and Terms of Endearment (1984)
I love that the supporting nominations aren’t as obvious this year, keeps it interesting!
I’d be interested to see what Gaga in supporting would mean for the race, but for right now, I’m predicting Deadwyler 👍
I wouldn’t be so doubtful over A Complete Unknown (on paper that is), coz since it’s a Searchlight movie, & say if Nightbitch doesn’t turn out good & if A Real Pain ends up being too small & gets that lone screenplay nod, they’re gonna wanna push Mangold’s movie (bare in mind too, Searchlight almost always has at least one movie firmly in the Best Picture lineup)
Y’all are overthinking a complete unknown. Just luck it in. It’s gonna happen whether we want a music biopic nominated or not.
I could see Selena Gomez getting nominated everywhere but miss the Oscar nomination. I think industry awards will be an uphill battle for her the same way it can be for Sandler or Efron, so I won’t count on it yet. Although they weren’t in Best Picture movies.
Danielle Deadwyler should be campaigning in Lead but it probably would be safer to put her in supporting for a better shot at winning
I honestly believe she will. The character Berniece is extremely important to the story.
From what I've heard, Lithgow is apperantly the juicy role in Conclave while Tucci's character isn't that interesting. Tucci might just be Matt Damon in Oppenheimer
What the hell is that picture of Edward Norton 😂😂😂😂😂 we see you MegaMind.
Also, I think Natasha Lyonne can make a case for a nomination. I'm getting Brian Tyree Henry/Jessie Buckley/ America Ferrera vibes. Someone always surprises every year with one nomination. The sole CC nominee stat still stands. She could be one to look out for.
After reading Queer, I think Drew Starkey could absolutely be nominated. His performance is almost in direct contrast to what Daniel Craig will probably do. Subtle, withdrawn, soft-spoken, naive, yet still slightly seductive and he does get really melancholy towards the end. Think Steven Yuen in Burning (I know he didn’t get nominated, but just think of the caliber of that performance) You could also think Timothee in CMBYN.
20:57
Regarding the emily blunt reference
Conclave's performance at the oscars will depend on critical reception and box office (emily with oppenheimmer had both)
The critical reception for the film won't be able to get nominations for the three actors, if the movie flops
And realistically a film about choosing another pope does not scream good box office numbers
9:15 Denzel Washington has Never been nominated for a Bafta… ever. Not even for Fences, Training Day, or Glory. So if he’s nominated for G2 you might as well give him the win.
John Lithgow has 2 Oscar nominations
Joan Chen in Didi
Damn Ed Norts got that Mr. Boss hairline
I know A Real Pain has gotten very good reviews, but I'm not confident in Kieran Culkin's Emmy momentum to last long enough to actually become a factor.
TV success never really translates to Oscars. Claire Foy won every TV award possible for The Crown and she got snubbed for First Man and Women Talking.
Also people were delulu about Sadie Sink in The Whale because she got a viral scene in Stranger Things LOL
So TV momentum is not even a real thing. And vice versa. Emma Stone just won her second Oscar and got Emmy snubbed for The Curse.
TV and Film are still separate worlds and both Academies vote very differently.
@@pb.j.1753 To be fair, Sadie Sink was very good in Stranger Things especially Season 4. Her performance in The Whale pales in comparison. It just wasn't Oscar-worthy.
Supporting Actress
1. Saoirse Ronan (Blitz)
2. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson)
3. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
4. Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door)
5. Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown)
Supporting Actor
1. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
2. Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson)
3. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
4. Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
5. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Reading conclave, Lithgow’s role has farrrrr more intrigue than Tucci’s. If Tucci got in over him it would purely be based on relevance/popularity.
I’m sure The Brutalist is, as you say, a man movie but Felicity Jones isn’t the only woman in it either. Long shot I know but what if Jones campaigned for lead and someone else comes out of nowhere for Supporting, like Emma Laird or maybe previous Corbet actors like Martin or Cassidy? Probably not but my point is there are options depending on the size of the roles.
Edward Norton getting a supporting actor nom would be so cool. Pete Seeger is a gregarious enough personality that is ripe for a meaty standout performance.
My current predictions on the App (as of 25.8):
*Best Supporting Actor:*
15. Jeremy Pope (The Collaboration)
14. Javier Bardem (Dune: Part Two)
13. John Lithgow (Conclave)
12. Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora)
11. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
10. Austin Butler (Dune: Part Two)
9. J.K. Simmons (Juror No. 2)
8. Drew Starkey (Queer)
7. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
6. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Harris Dickinson (Blitz)
4. Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
3. Keiran Culkin (A Real Pain)
2. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
1. Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson)
*Best Supporting Actress:*
17. Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown)
16. Catherine Keener (Joker: Folie à Deux)
15. Margaret Qualley (The Substance)
14. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters)
13. Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez)
12. Rebecca Ferguson (Dune: Part Two)
11. Rachel Sennott (Saturday Night)
10. Joan Chen (Didi)
9. Lesley Manville (Queer)
8. Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door)
7. Toni Collette (Juror No. 2)
6. Maria Bakalova (The Apprentice)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Saoirse Ronan (Blitz)*
4. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
3. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
2. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson)
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys)
*for those of you keeping track, I used to have Ronan in lead. I only changed that very recently. I now have Gascón in lead instead.
P.S. look me up on The Awards Expert app @poihpio98 for more wrong predictions and even wronger favourites.
Remember when y'all were predicting "Supremes at Earl's All You Can Eat"? That didn't age well...
Yea but once they revealed it was going to HULU, they figured it wasnt what they were thinking.
@@lisacox306 yea but that was NEVER happening even if it did get a theatrical release, genuinely one of the stupidest predictions I have ever seen them make and the fact other “awards experts” had the same prediction is beyond me
@@TheClubOrtizyeah i have to agree with you
Kieran Culkin A real pain, Hamish Linklater , Nickel boys, Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire inside, Drew Starkey, Queer , Stanley Tucci , Conclave
If Denzel's snubbed for a BAFTA nomination? Those racists haven't nominated him ONCE! No ifs about it. Don't expect that from them ever. Globes and SAG should be enough for him, if the movie's any good.
They are not racists. BAFTAs are almost always correct. They just do not go with the most campaigned performances of the year. They go with the actual best of the year.
I’m shocked Austin Butler in Dune 2 didn’t make the list.
Zoe’s been one of my favorite actresses for years. I can’t say she’s “underrated” because obviously she’s been in literally the highest-grossing movies of all time but I think her talent and versatility has gone underrated for years, maybe even because of the commercial success. I would LOVE to hear her name on nomination morning ❤️
John Lithgow for the win. He has been overlooked for years now.. he should have at least 10 nomination in his belt. And it would be greater if supporting actress goes to Glenn Close for "the deliverance".
Samuel L Jackson deserves an Oscar trophy.
I know he got an honorary one a few years ago, but I’m honestly surprised he hasn’t won a competitive Oscar yet
@@aidanmchutchison567Same with Angela LIKE HOW
This is Denzel’s year. Especially from everything we’ve heard so far about Gladiator 2. Most likely going to steal every scene.
No cat.
Joan Chen’s performance was Oscar-worthy. There were a lot of looks and moments of silence that spoke volumes. She was fantastic and I hope she’ll be recognized. Loved Didi!
29:23
even if Gladiator 2 is bad, I could see Denzel getting a Nomination!
Roman J. Israel wasn't a good film, but Denzel still got the Nomination for that!
Clarence Maclin feels a little bit optimistic to me. Could see him being on the bubble come Oscar morning.
I will say, Tati Gabrielle was really good in ‘The supremes at earls…”
Your supporting actor lineup is going to be completely changed by Oct/Nov
Lithgow has already had plenty of success with awards and he’s gotten 2 Oscar noms already 😅
The only way they’d nominate him is if:
1. He has a standout role in the film
2. The list of potential noms becomes smaller and they just say why not, let’s nominate him
I don’t think we’re taking Edward Norton seriously enough for the win 😬
Denzel Washington has never been nominated for a BAFTA Award, so there will be no surprises there.
The BAFTAs don't rate him at all which is very sad.
What?! I did not know that! That is a damn shame to the BAFTAS!
I love seeing Felicity Jones back
I hope lithgow and Pearce both get nominated, I can’t really see Denzel getting in personally
I’m not fully buying Conclave but Rossellini I think may get hype with/without the film
You need to take test screenings with a grain of salt. Goodfellas and Seven had disastrous test screenings. Napoleon had some test screeners calling it a masterpiece. It turned out to be a piece of crap and Phoenix delivered one of the worst performances of his career.
Felicity Jones could be lead.
Part of me wishes Exhibiting Forgiveness would be in the conversation for some of these. Both John Earl Jelks and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor could feasibly score supporting nominations for that movie.
they r. re- shooting or changing a scene for A Complete Unknown 8/22 so it may get abetter test they r still working on it.
so many actors that haven't been nominated crazy
This is what I have (alphabetical)
Best Supporting Actor
1.Kieran Culkin-A Real Pain
2.Samuel L. Jackson-The Piano Lesson
3.Clarence Maclin-Sing Sing
4.Stanley Tucci-Conclave
5.Denzel Washington-Gladiator II
Best Supporting Actress
1.Danielle Deadwyler-The Piano Lesson
2.Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor-Nickel Boys
3.Saoirse Ronan-Blitz
4.Isabella Rossellini-Conclave
5.Tilda Swinton-The Room Next Door
For a self-proclaimed "Oscar Expert", it's disappointing that you are unaware that a nod for "Conclave" would NOT be John Lithgow's first. You are sead wrong that he has "never been nominated". Checkout Lithgow's performances in "The World According To Garp" and "Terms Of Endearment". 🤨
I will absolutely die if Denzel Washingtons first BAFTA nomination is for Gladiator 2.
Will Smith (before that infamous slap) actually pulled off a similar feat recently. KING RICHARD was in fact his first ever BAFTA nomination. Morgan Freeman has never been nominated there either.
Have either of them read Conclave? Yes movies are different than the books but Rosselinni's character is not in the book much. I think they might have changed movie from the book the big twist in the book is a PG-13 subject and Rosselinni's impact is a PG-13 storyline too not PG.
Chalamet can open movies, it's during Xmas, IT IS ABOUT BOB DYLAN. Just ridiculous.
Unrelated lead comment but I’ve been thinking that Daniel Craig could take BAFTA and GG, while Colman Domingo takes CC and SAG ?? Idk just been on my mind
I think lead actors and supporting actress will all be close contests this year
How about we wait if Queer is any good? That's been on my mind
@@pb.j.1753 true but I can’t see Guadagnino flopping this year
Have not seen Craig yet but I was not blown away by Domingo so I would root for Craig.
@@tonyg76 Craig kinda has a narrative as well I suppose
John Lithgow was nominated for Terms of Endearment which won Best Picture
After Jamie Lee Curtis won, I'm keeping SLJ at #1.
if the world were fair, nic cage would be a shoe in for a nomination!
like i know it’s a long shot but i really hope he gets some recognition this award season for longlegs 🤞🏽
I don’t know why would Danielle Deadwyler be put in the Best Supporting Actress race for “The Piano Lesson”. I’ve read the play and her character Berniece is arguably the main protagonist as the entire story is centered around her character and her brother Boy Willie. Danielle Deadwyler should be in the Best Actress category instead.
Clarence Maclin is like Glynn Turman in Ma Rainey. A few critics awards and nothing else
Hopefully Deadwyler gets her deserved nomination. I was so angry when they snubbed her for Till
And you finally show your youth with the Lithgow hasn’t been nominated comment.
Have you ever done best animated feature oscar predictions
This year has been a snooze for movies unlike last year.
Could Cory Michael Smith in Saturday Night be a dark horse?
Lithgow’s got two Oscar noms😭
I think some audiences are gonna think The Brutalist is pretentious. 3 & 1/2 hours with an intermission will probably strike more populist voters as a little obnoxious and film bro-esque. It could be great and get nominations, but I don’t think it’ll be unanimously beloved.
Harris Dickinson is brilliant in everything and would love to see him nominated for Blitz.
I do not buy any Gladiator hype. So my predictions are about the same, but with Kieran Culkin instead of Denzel at the 4th spot.
Zoe Saldana would definitely be a cool win
Tilda is campaigned in lead
Samuel L. Jackson might go Lead as he's billed above John David Washington. Didn't people also originally predict Chadwick Boseman for Supporting in Ma Rainey's? 🤔
PS: Where's Rebecca Ferguson for Dune: Part 2? I thought she was MVP, acting-wise. It's one of year's biggest films.
Billing has nothing to do with screentime
SLJ’s role in “The Piano Lesson” is actually a supporting role in the play. The real leads are both Danielle Deadwyler and JDW.
Not first time for Lithgow, sir expert
Insane that Denzel Washington and Samuel L. Jackson never worked together!
They did once! In Spike Lee's movie Mo Better Blues (1990) Denzel plays the lead role of a trumpet player in a nightclub band. While Samuel L. Jackson was one of the henchmen who hurt people who owed money. Spike Lee plays Denzel's manager who has a gambling problem, so Samuel L. Jackson has to rough him up a bit lol.
I am not gonna be delulu and ignore the fact that Blitz is not playing in Telluride, Venice nor TIFF. 🚩🚩🚩That means zero awards chances to me.
lithgow has 2 nominations... come on guys
I wonder if Saturday Night is really an awards thing. Not like SNL is super respected as a whole by the industry.
@@pb.j.1753 I’d argue the opposite actually.
SNL is very respected by the industry, shown by the big stars they still get to guest and the cast members being cast left and right in Hollywood🤷♂️
@@RobertBurns71405might be true but anyone who guest stars on there is promoting a movie or an album. It’s a huge tool for advertising more than anything.
Ur oscar predictions sometimes were on point but sometimes not.
Bro you just kidding me where is Austin Butler
BAFTA doesn't give a single flying f**k about Africian American stories, Sing Sing is not getting noms. SAG isn't nominated Maclin an unknown, SAG loves actors. You guys are getting ridiculous.
Daddy brotherbro
Fernanda Montenegro ♥
Javier Bardem for Dune: Part Two?
I can't wait to see your faces when The Brutalist won't be a thing
Alberto barbera said this movie is going to be the biggest suprise and that can win The golden lion so they have big reasons to be confident in it
Niccage, longlegs
Call me crazy but Nicolas Cage deserves far more consideration for Longlegs than he's been getting. Come on guys!
lol no. sit down
SLJ's role in the piano lesson isn't that good or sizeable (this isn't speculation, I've seen the film and the play when it was on broadway). These overwhelming win predictions for him feel like something that will age poorly. I think he'll get a filler nom at best but missing entirely wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. It's Deadwyler's movie
I'm all in on Maclin. Feels like voters will trip over themselves to vote for that narrative
Deadwyler should be in lead
@@davy209 eh, she could go either way. Depends on if she wants to contend for a win or just be seen as a lead ala Lily
Samuel l. Jackson is gone. Only danielle deadwyler could happen..fingers crossed.
Netflix is rotten for dumping His Three Daughters, one of the best family dramas in a while.
What do you mean dumping? The movie hasn't premiered yet right?
@@qqe1019I mean not giving it an awards push nor theatrical release. They bought it at TIFF a full year ago and are not doing anything with it except for dumping it on the service without any special marketing nor effort.
@@pb.j.1753 It's getting a theatrical release, It's playing at Paris Cinema here in NYC first week of September!
Also it was not screened at one single other festival since TIFF. Insanity
@@tmovies92The Paris cinema is owned by Netflix LOL
I need to specify Netflix is not giving it a significant theatrical window like they gave to their priorities Maestro and Power of the Dog. His Three Daughters hits limited cinemas and online in the same month. Also it is not shown in theaters outside of the US, which is the case with their priorities.
Once again sleep on drew starkey
I do think we might need to consider A Rossellini win. Even if she doesn’t do much a lot of the winners in this category didn’t do a lot either. She’s an Hollywood royalty and could have big international support. Something in the veins of Laura Dern, Allison Janney or JLC.
I would love to see you discuss the effect of The Piano Lesson being snubbed for picture would have on Samuel L Jackson's frontrunner position. Christopher Plummer is the only supporting actor winner for a non-best picture nominated film since the academy expanded the number of best picture nominees. It is still entirely possible but it's a factor I haven't seen brought up much.