Seth, I am SO glad you are starting to show in your videos how to defend an options strategy when things don’t go your way. It’s not always a win-win, even with 90% POP. Proper risk management is always key.
A Delta 10 option does indeed give you a 90 % chance of winning from all prices from 0 to infinity. However, the premiums you get at these levels are too small to be of much use. It is commonly accepted that options are priced such that the Expected Range from the current price at the expiration will fall within 1 Standard Deviation of the current price. This Expected Move is then plus and minus Delta 16. Most traders base their trades on 90 % of this expected Move which means they buy at the Delta 20 levels. I completely agree that a credit spread at one of these levels is a good plan. For example a Bull Put Spread bought at the minus Delta 20 would give you a 90% chance of profit within the Expected Move range and it would be close enough to the current price to provide a reasonable profit.
I am so happy that I made productive decisions about my finances that changed my life forever. I am a single mother and I live in Spain, I bought my second house in September and I hope to retire next year at 40 if all goes well. thanks to Louise O'Brien for helping me achieve this.
Thank you for the clear presentation but I think you glossed over the most important part - Why pick Tesla and Why continue to sell put credit spreads on this security? So often options are presented as a blind percentage purchase but in reality, each 60 days you need to decide if you want to enter into the trade. What is the decision process that leads one to a better win rate? That is more important than just aiming for a Delta. Is it RSI? I agree that the first trade was a true high probability trade as the stock was way down in oversold territory. Every trade after that seemed like a guess - which is scary.
Thanks Seth for the "rolling down" short put strike strategy. A lot of time, traders just got panic and buy back the spread by taking loss. I like this strategy.
Be careful though. Expected return or loss is probability multiplied by return or loss. So you can have 0.9 win rate but the size of the loss when selling options is much larger than the gain
When you make a comment that they are being deceptive, you should back it up with facts which you don't have. I have followed SMB and they provide a wealth of information regarding options and trading.
It’s true that the loss is larger than the gain, which is why he showed how to make an adjustment to minimize that loss. Nothing is 100% guaranteed but this is a smart conservative strategy to make steady income.
@@coreycorey9611 do you believe in Santa Claus too? Do you take at face value that there is a 90% win rate strategy you can use trading options? If there was, do you think only SMB capital knows this, and would share it with you? Some how the rest of the world hasn't caught wind of this 90% win rate strategy? Get real. It's called risk vs. reward. You may have a high win rate with the trade strategy, but the times that you lose, will more than cancel out your wins. And no, rolling your trade is not the magic bullet that makes this strategy infallible. Rolling your trade can actually end up costing you a LOT more than your initial losing trade.
Hi Seth, In each example you allowed trades to expire worthless rather than closing them. In most cases do you prefer that? What about after-hours trading? How often does the trade turn against you after the market is closed, moving the position from OTM to ITM, resulting in an assignment? Thanks for your feedback.
It is very helpful to me because I learned how to use delta to get the estimation of win rate. The key points for the success of this strategy - 1. trend of the specific stock; 2. skill to know when to do the roll over; 3. get good price of the options (retail traders may not be able to get the best price). We need know that an option contact's EV value is about 0 when created.
Seth and SMB, thanks for another useful video. As a follow-up though, I think It would be interesting to see a video on a campaign like this, but carried out during a more "typical" 12 month period, where the S&P had a lot more ups and downs, and maybe ended up only 8% or 9%. An interesting test would be May 2022 to May 2023, as this was an up-and-down period. I suspect that if carried out with discipline, and especially with the "adjustment" that you've described, that it would still be a profitable strategy, but probably less so than a cherry-picked year like 2023. Let's face it, pretty much ANY bullish strategy did well in 2023! It would probably be a better indicator of how valuable a strategy really is, if showcased during a non-cherry-picked 12 month period. But thanks very much again for these videos, very helpful, have gained some very good insights watching them.
Seth, great video! May I ask why you're using a 2 month expiration pls? Is that an optimization from a study? I'm in the middle of a study doing something very similar except with SPY and weekly options.
I do trades like this as well the reason two months is it gives you plenty of time to manage the trade and being so far out of money you can get premium.
Great explanation on options.. been trading for awhile and I still have troubles understanding it.. lol This video helps me get closer to understanding it.
Agree with those that say that this video is not deceptive, especially not “super deceptive”. It’s a probability based trade where the statistical probability of the trade being profitable is approximately defined by the option delta. Also Seth goes to the trouble of suggesting a strategy of dealing with a situation where the market threatens the short strike by rolling down the position to the original option deltas. One suggestion I might add would be to add some sort of trend filter such as the 200 day ma and only take trades in that direction.
Ok cool, try it out for a year and see how it goes for you. There are a myriad of other variables that go into using a strategy like this. If it were this easy, don't you think everyone would do it? "Oh the trade happens to be going against me.. let me just roll it and everything will be fine". No...
Had 26Jan $MSTR 495/485 Credit Put spread that went against me. Waited for my Long Put to gain over 50% Delta, then bought back the shorts(495's) and rode the 485's down for a profit yesterday based on support/Resistance levels, closing the position for a profit before $MSTR bouncing at support, a successful morph. SMB video in that regard would be a good idea. Yet another tool, like Rolling, in the event a credit spread goes against the Trader.
I can create a strategy that has a 99% win rate, but if the 1% of the time I lose ends up being 200 times the gain I make the other 99% of the time, it's a losing strategy. Win rate is completely unimportant, what matters is expected value.
Can anyone give me some advice? I opened 225,227.5 put credit spreads on Tesla, but this went down significantly so I rolled over to next week. This was my first time opening credit spreads ever. My account size was 2000, but I got greedy and I tried to make $80 in a week, with potential loss of 500. My broker says I can't even roll further out because my account size is less than 2000. My current spread is already losing $310 including the loss from the original spread. I was thinking of buying a put option to stop bleeding more, but I think that eventually increases the risk so I didn't buy. Should I just take the loss and move on? What can I do at this point?
10% loss making trades can occur at anytime. Also this probability is true only for large number of transactions. Assuming that the size of this large data set is 500, then 50 loss marking trades can happen at start and one should have enough funds to take this hit.
so what happens if the trade closes just in between the two put options? I have to buy 100 Tesla stocks, so wouldnt that be the worst case scenario?(at least for a small account which is not holding 100k)
i wonder if using a 95% win rate and increasing the number of contracts so sell the one you bought but sell say 15 buy the one 5 points below. At what point is it best to compare number of contracts to size of delta ?
Hello, very helpful video. One question. is this strategy for margin account? I'm using a cash account and with my broker if i want to sell 1 contact with strike price $105 it means i need to have on my account $10500 to lock the money in case the price goes below and has to be executed.
How much account balance do you recommend to take a risk for $4K+ risk? Should beginners be focusing on lowered price stocks to reduce the capital at risk?
The next cash flow slide (at 9:53, and again at 10:48) did the same thing, which I found very confusing. I guess we are best off just ignoring this tag.
What if the asset still keeps tanking after the roll? Can it still be rolled for another time which I doubt so since the 1st roll can only salvage back so much less premium. OR just close it with big losses? I guess this strategy lies in the successful key factor of anticipating the direction bias of the asset/market but how a prop firm like SMB does this if it can be shared.
I was wondering the same thing. I’ve rolled a put credit spread already and it keeps going down. I cannot roll again and still remain in a profit. Just have to hope the stock will go up this coming week
I was wondering the same thing. I’ve rolled a put credit spread already and it keeps going down. I cannot roll again and still remain in a profit. Just have to hope the stock will go up this coming week
Same here. I opened 225 227.5 put credit spreads, and it kept tanking, so I had to roll over to the next week. I have only 4 days left til it goes back up, but I am not so sure.
I totally understand how you feel. I've been there too, but Wealthwise Capital turned things around for me. I went from averaging $500 every month with a 200K portfolio to averaging over $5000. Right now all i can say is, i'm glad i didn't quit. And now, i'm in a much better place.
Wen I first started trading someone told me never quit trading because once you quit it’s all over everything you’ve ever learned will go down the drain. And then you will eventually decide to come back at which point you’ll be behind where you would’ve been normally had you just kept going. so yeah lose money that’s okay learn from it but never quit
The big quantum advance that made me net profitable was to track why I'm about to enter a trade and why I'm about to exit a trade. It keeps me out of trades i shouldn't take, and keeps me from exiting due to fear. Adding those 2 simple things to my trade log made a huge difference.
They don’t talk about Implied volatility that plays a key role while implementing this strategy. Also, mostly traders don’t wait till last DTE to square off , they do it well before to get the capital out and take some other trade . But yes, this works with >90% probability of profit but the Return post adjustments on investment goes to as low as .5-.8% for that period
He is showing delta as a percentage. So divide delta by 100 and you get -0.1036. In the video, he says Tesla has a 10% chance of closing below 105 on Feb 17th.
if interest rates go up where should i look to put money into? I currently have $800k in a high yield savings account, yes I’m making gains but to what extent with inflation eating away at the dollar.
Long term? Stocks. Small-Caps are poised to perform better in the coming year despite Fed actions with rates to make investors worried. you should look into which the Best Small-Caps Stocks to position into.
Money advice is subjective, what works for you may not work for someone else, but it's always better to plan. I'm quite lucky exposed to personal finance at an early age, started job 19, bought first home 28, got laid-off work 36 amid covid-outbreak, and at once I consulted an advisor to handle growing my finance. As of today, I'm only 25% short of my $1m goal after subsequent investments.
Nicole Desiree Simon deserves credit as one of the finest portfolio managers in the industry. Her reputation precedes her, and I highly recommend looking her up to locate her online if you are internet-savvy
Thank you for sharing, I must say, Sharon appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call
I can also create a system for casino roulette that has a win rate of 90%. However, the 10% losses are greater than the 90% wins. Expected value the important thing.
There would be no difference using it for weeklys as using it for his example, Probabilities with delta are the same no matter what the timeframe is. it’s still the probability that the price will be hit.
Pray. Or hope that it hasn't moved so far against you that it's still possible to do a reasonable roll. Otherwise, you could end up rolling it out months ahead of where you are and tying up your capital... risking even more of a loss.
The ONLY way to have a 90% win rate is to be risking the entirety of the trade each and every time. Even if you were right 9 out of 10 times, that one mistake will put you right back to zero.
Correct. Also just because it's delta is saying you have an approximate 90% chance of the trade working, doesn't necessarily mean anything. There are macro events that can change that in a second... one max loss, or one rolled up trade that results in further losses... could reset months of winning trades.
The worst case scenario is the price at expiration is 100 and only the short leg expires ITM. I'd be obliged to buy 1000 shares of TSLA for 100k. If that is not in your trading account, there'll be some kind of liquidation very soon. 4410$ (5 x 100 x 10 - 590) is the worst case scenario only if the TSLA price dives below 100 where I have my long puts that act as a stop limit. There're people out there who have lost their trading accounts because of this, just read and learn before you jump into this strategy.
The reward to risk ratio is so low, 1:9, which means if i lose once, i will lose all the money i won in the previous nine times!!! That’s why i dare not use the put credit spread
Self-induced. That's a you problem. This tells me your risk management is 1%, but you're not cutting the loss at 1%. You keep riding the loss...holding and hoping, instead of just cutting it at 1% like you should be doing. For you to have a successful 9:1, you need to cut your losers at 1% and ride your winners to at least 9x your loss. Your average winner should be at least 9x your average loser.
@@mikep4869 that depends... if there is a large movement in the middle of the night, it could cause you to have a max loss. And if you breach the short strike, if there is a decent amount of theta left... it's not going to to be a minimized loss at all. These are the things casually left out of this video.
Yes, I was thinking the same. My guess would be that credit spread is still a directional bet, and a longer time til expiry date can help us in avoiding the potential losses.
Its funny that the people in the comments seem to know more than the guy who made this video. Ive never heard of anyone using Delta as a trading signal. Delta measures how much the option price changes per movement in the underlying. Delta changes all the time, IV changes all the time. For hedging that is okay, because you are market neutral so big changes might necessitate rebalancing but shouldnt be too impactful. But using Delta as a signal? Hu? Better to make your own model, apply Black Scholes and come up with your own price than try to use Delta as a proxy for the value of the option. That is NOT what Delta is used for.
@@sethfreudberg4750 An entry point is a signal isn't it? I generally use signal synonymously with "signal to enter", "entry", etc. Most models I have seen use signal to denote the point at which the system suggests to buy/sell.
The same $4,500 in 'Buying Power Reduction (BPR), is used to make $550 every 2-months (if you're lucky enough to never lose). If you took a max loss just once, your year-end return would be like -35%. To do that, you are not watching the tape. But, it could happen.
Your receiving a credit of 500 and collateral is 4500. The 4500 is the worst case scenario. But it rarely ever happens. You can close at any time and take profits. Theta decay is going to pay you a little more every day since your selling. Unlike buying you’re relying on the fact that most options expire worthless to get paid. Hope that info helps a little.
$590 bucks, great. But my daughter made more selling lemonade in our front yard. The market is 'generally bullish' so why not post videos based on that premise?
You watch interviews of traders from this firm , seems like everyone is on their own , not sure what are they good for with all the prop forms offering better services these days .
@the original, you’d only do that if you were happy to be long the stock at that price. That’s a different trade called a cash secured put. Plus your broker would margin you massively without the protection.
@@sethfreudberg4750 Hi Seth, thanks for your reply. Since the pros would be monitoring the spread for a move in Delta from 10 to 20, you could do the same thing with the naked Put. However, I get your point about needing the margin to cover the naked Put. Thanks.
Why do you guys keep starting a new sales pitch on options in every video? What are you selling lol? Just tell us the strategy and stop pushing the prerecorded free training that always just happens to be starting within the hour.
@@sethfreudberg4750 There is no hard and fast rule to manage credit spreads; that's misinformation. It depends on a myriad of factors if you want to effectively employ risk management. This is not a dumbed down trading strategy that is easy to do for new traders. You're leaving a lot of details out. I would never encourage any new trader to start selling options... people have actually killed themselves over trading this EXACT same strategy and not understanding what they were doing... thinking they lost hundreds of thousands of dollars.
There are more deceptive videos out there with titles saying $10k a week from Put Credit Spreads on PLTR with a premium of $0.06. I don't see any deception in this video as it teaches to use a 10 Delta strike price, which would give the trade a probability of 90% win. I also appreciate that they added a solution when the problem of stock price is getting near to the short strike price. Anyway, this is just my opinion.
So I could just sell the Put and hold onto my $2500 or whatever and as it got closer I could buy to close? Otherwise I’d just let it run and collect the $2500 for the sale? And of course I’m gonna need the cash available in case they decide to exercise early, although that’s unlikely.
Not deceptive at all. This strategy does work. What should be discussed further is when to enter the trade. Because entering this trade in the wrong time can be very, very painful.
basic difference between possibility vs. probability. Risk/reward point of view , this is worst strategy. Who would take a trade you get 10% profit , if you are right and you loose 90%, when you are wrong 🤮
Absolutely awful advice. Something with a 10% chance of happening that can wipe out your profits when it does happen. If I lay (bet against) a horse with a 10% chance of winning the bookies will price that up at odds of 10.0 (or 9/1 in fractional odds), if I lay a 10.0 price horse for $10 then my liability is $90 and my potential winnings are $10. If I bet in 9 races and the horse loses each time I will win $90. If on the tenth race that horse wins I will *lose* $90 so back to square one.
I have no idea but this guy makes even more complicated when he explain the option. Not even understood any of his videos. Better there are other option teachers more easier I supposed. I got out from this channel.
Seth, I am SO glad you are starting to show in your videos how to defend an options strategy when things don’t go your way. It’s not always a win-win, even with 90% POP. Proper risk management is always key.
Thanks Jason!
How much do you lose for the 10% of the time the trade goes bad? Don't you have to consider that when calculating the potential profits?
A Delta 10 option does indeed give you a 90 % chance of winning from all prices from 0 to infinity. However, the premiums you get at these levels are too small to be of much use. It is commonly accepted that options are priced such that the Expected Range from the current price at the expiration will fall within 1 Standard Deviation of the current price. This Expected Move is then plus and minus Delta 16. Most traders base their trades on 90 % of this expected Move which means they buy at the Delta 20 levels. I completely agree that a credit spread at one of these levels is a good plan. For example a Bull Put Spread bought at the minus Delta 20 would give you a 90% chance of profit within the Expected Move range and it would be close enough to the current price to provide a reasonable profit.
We can do a video about 29 delta options @jackie to flesh out your point. Thanks for the suggestion
I am so happy that I made productive decisions about my finances that changed my life forever. I am a single mother and I live in Spain, I bought my second house in September and I hope to retire next year at 40 if all goes well. thanks to Louise O'Brien for helping me achieve this.
You trade with Louise O'Brien too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
That woman has changed my life for good. I attended her investment class couple of weeks last year and she’s the best when it comes for Guidance.
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
I'm happy to see Louise O'Brien mentioned here, my husband recommended her to me when I was in Germany during Covid, she's amazing.
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. It's huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
Thank you for the clear presentation but I think you glossed over the most important part - Why pick Tesla and Why continue to sell put credit spreads on this security? So often options are presented as a blind percentage purchase but in reality, each 60 days you need to decide if you want to enter into the trade. What is the decision process that leads one to a better win rate? That is more important than just aiming for a Delta. Is it RSI? I agree that the first trade was a true high probability trade as the stock was way down in oversold territory. Every trade after that seemed like a guess - which is scary.
My three favorite channels: SMB Capital, Stock Brotha, & How Money Works. Make my week complete! 🔥 🔥 🔥
Add Al Brooks trading
Thanks Rich!
Thanks Seth for the "rolling down" short put strike strategy. A lot of time, traders just got panic and buy back the spread by taking loss. I like this strategy.
Be careful though. Expected return or loss is probability multiplied by return or loss. So you can have 0.9 win rate but the size of the loss when selling options is much larger than the gain
Exactly.. that’s why they’re being deceptive
@@tradelikebrandon sell options when IV is overstated and buy when it’s understated
When you make a comment that they are being deceptive, you should back it up with facts which you don't have. I have followed SMB and they provide a wealth of information regarding options and trading.
It’s true that the loss is larger than the gain, which is why he showed how to make an adjustment to minimize that loss. Nothing is 100% guaranteed but this is a smart conservative strategy to make steady income.
@@coreycorey9611 do you believe in Santa Claus too? Do you take at face value that there is a 90% win rate strategy you can use trading options? If there was, do you think only SMB capital knows this, and would share it with you? Some how the rest of the world hasn't caught wind of this 90% win rate strategy? Get real. It's called risk vs. reward. You may have a high win rate with the trade strategy, but the times that you lose, will more than cancel out your wins. And no, rolling your trade is not the magic bullet that makes this strategy infallible. Rolling your trade can actually end up costing you a LOT more than your initial losing trade.
Excellent, superlative. The details and explanation were spot on. Thank you so much.
Hi Seth, In each example you allowed trades to expire worthless rather than closing them. In most cases do you prefer that? What about after-hours trading? How often does the trade turn against you after the market is closed, moving the position from OTM to ITM, resulting in an assignment? Thanks for your feedback.
It is very helpful to me because I learned how to use delta to get the estimation of win rate. The key points for the success of this strategy - 1. trend of the specific stock; 2. skill to know when to do the roll over; 3. get good price of the options (retail traders may not be able to get the best price). We need know that an option contact's EV value is about 0 when created.
Outstanding Commentary!!!! Priceless!!! Thank You!!!!
You’re welcome @Jom. Keep learning!
Thank you Seth and SMB for the video.
Very nice video! Step 0 in the process is to decide which ticker to use to execute the campaign. How is TSLA chosen?
Curious if you have ever run the BFG KO2's and, if so, what your thoughts are on those vs the Toyo AT3's?
Seth and SMB, thanks for another useful video. As a follow-up though, I think It would be interesting to see a video on a campaign like this, but carried out during a more "typical" 12 month period, where the S&P had a lot more ups and downs, and maybe ended up only 8% or 9%. An interesting test would be May 2022 to May 2023, as this was an up-and-down period.
I suspect that if carried out with discipline, and especially with the "adjustment" that you've described, that it would still be a profitable strategy, but probably less so than a cherry-picked year like 2023. Let's face it, pretty much ANY bullish strategy did well in 2023!
It would probably be a better indicator of how valuable a strategy really is, if showcased during a non-cherry-picked 12 month period.
But thanks very much again for these videos, very helpful, have gained some very good insights watching them.
@George, please refer to my Wheel strategy videos for how you'd handle the exact scenario you're mentioning.
These videos are very informative and useful. Thank you!
Thank you for another great video, Seth!
Seth, do you have an opinion on doing these trades more frequently like weekly or twice a month per symbol?
Seth, great video! May I ask why you're using a 2 month expiration pls? Is that an optimization from a study?
I'm in the middle of a study doing something very similar except with SPY and weekly options.
I do trades like this as well the reason two months is it gives you plenty of time to manage the trade and being so far out of money you can get premium.
Great explanation on options.. been trading for awhile and I still have troubles understanding it.. lol
This video helps me get closer to understanding it.
That’s great zeroloss. Keep watching!
Seth, this is a lot of good information. Does this strategy have to be done every couple of months? Can it be done monthly or weekly? Thanks,
Agree with those that say that this video is not deceptive, especially not “super deceptive”. It’s a probability based trade where the statistical probability of the trade being profitable is approximately defined by the option delta. Also Seth goes to the trouble of suggesting a strategy of dealing with a situation where the market threatens the short strike by rolling down the position to the original option deltas. One suggestion I might add would be to add some sort of trend filter such as the 200 day ma and only take trades in that direction.
Ok cool, try it out for a year and see how it goes for you. There are a myriad of other variables that go into using a strategy like this. If it were this easy, don't you think everyone would do it? "Oh the trade happens to be going against me.. let me just roll it and everything will be fine". No...
Had 26Jan $MSTR 495/485 Credit Put spread that went against me. Waited for my Long Put to gain over 50% Delta, then bought back the shorts(495's) and rode the 485's down for a profit yesterday based on support/Resistance levels, closing the position for a profit before $MSTR bouncing at support, a successful morph. SMB video in that regard would be a good idea. Yet another tool, like Rolling, in the event a credit spread goes against the Trader.
I can create a strategy that has a 99% win rate, but if the 1% of the time I lose ends up being 200 times the gain I make the other 99% of the time, it's a losing strategy. Win rate is completely unimportant, what matters is expected value.
@karim I’d say win rate is part of the story whereas expected value is the complete story
Dead lmfao
Dead lmfao
Facts brother.. it’s not how much trades you win.. it’s how much you’d have after the trade..
That’s not what this video is about.
Thank you for discussing how to protect these trades and when some traders may do so.
You're welcome Kroanosm617
Can anyone give me some advice? I opened 225,227.5 put credit spreads on Tesla, but this went down significantly so I rolled over to next week. This was my first time opening credit spreads ever. My account size was 2000, but I got greedy and I tried to make $80 in a week, with potential loss of 500. My broker says I can't even roll further out because my account size is less than 2000. My current spread is already losing $310 including the loss from the original spread. I was thinking of buying a put option to stop bleeding more, but I think that eventually increases the risk so I didn't buy. Should I just take the loss and move on? What can I do at this point?
Seth, thanks, your vids have been great. HOW do you backtest and get the old data for your examples? Would love an expose on this topic.!!!!
I believe they use option net explorer to backtest
10% loss making trades can occur at anytime. Also this probability is true only for large number of transactions. Assuming that the size of this large data set is 500, then 50 loss marking trades can happen at start and one should have enough funds to take this hit.
so what happens if the trade closes just in between the two put options? I have to buy 100 Tesla stocks, so wouldnt that be the worst case scenario?(at least for a small account which is not holding 100k)
i wonder if using a 95% win rate and increasing the number of contracts so sell the one you bought but sell say 15 buy the one 5 points below. At what point is it best to compare number of contracts to size of delta ?
Hello, very helpful video. One question. is this strategy for margin account? I'm using a cash account and with my broker if i want to sell 1 contact with strike price $105 it means i need to have on my account $10500 to lock the money in case the price goes below and has to be executed.
Roll, roll, roll you puts.
Gently down the chain.
Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily.
Management's always key. ;)
@Donald, that could be a song!
How much account balance do you recommend to take a risk for $4K+ risk? Should beginners be focusing on lowered price stocks to reduce the capital at risk?
Just s correction. First slide you listed the put credit spreads as a iron condor. But good info
The next cash flow slide (at 9:53, and again at 10:48) did the same thing, which I found very confusing. I guess we are best off just ignoring this tag.
Good stuff!
is this applicable to forex ?
What if the asset still keeps tanking after the roll? Can it still be rolled for another time which I doubt so since the 1st roll can only salvage back so much less premium. OR just close it with big losses?
I guess this strategy lies in the successful key factor of anticipating the direction bias of the asset/market but how a prop firm like SMB does this if it can be shared.
I was wondering the same thing. I’ve rolled a put credit spread already and it keeps going down. I cannot roll again and still remain in a profit. Just have to hope the stock will go up this coming week
I was wondering the same thing. I’ve rolled a put credit spread already and it keeps going down. I cannot roll again and still remain in a profit. Just have to hope the stock will go up this coming week
Same here. I opened 225 227.5 put credit spreads, and it kept tanking, so I had to roll over to the next week. I have only 4 days left til it goes back up, but I am not so sure.
@@thegreatestcomesfromthewor6929what stock
Anyone else ever go through weeks and all you think of is quitting trading? That's been me recently
I totally understand how you feel. I've been there too, but Wealthwise Capital turned things around for me. I went from averaging $500 every month with a 200K portfolio to averaging over $5000. Right now all i can say is, i'm glad i didn't quit. And now, i'm in a much better place.
Wen I first started trading someone told me never quit trading because once you quit it’s all over everything you’ve ever learned will go down the drain. And then you will eventually decide to come back at which point you’ll be behind where you would’ve been normally had you just kept going. so yeah lose money that’s okay learn from it but never quit
I have had my self doubt at times, but I have come to far to quit and failure is not a option, Don’t give up on yourself 👍🏾
The big quantum advance that made me net profitable was to track why I'm about to enter a trade and why I'm about to exit a trade. It keeps me out of trades i shouldn't take, and keeps me from exiting due to fear. Adding those 2 simple things to my trade log made a huge difference.
I’ve thought about it
But then I imagine that amazing life I’d be living if I don’t quit
Then the will to win becomes much stronger
In the option chain DELTA is displaying in points , for ex. 0.346,0.010,0.724 , how can I get the round delta , anybody please help
your .34 Delta would be 34%. If you look at the strike price and match it to the current stock price, it should be .50 or 50%.
They don’t talk about Implied volatility that plays a key role while implementing this strategy. Also, mostly traders don’t wait till last DTE to square off , they do it well before to get the capital out and take some other trade . But yes, this works with >90% probability of profit but the Return post adjustments on investment goes to as low as .5-.8% for that period
At 6:30 and 9:52 it says, Iron Condor. Clearly a typo. is that right? Otherwise good content. Thank you.
Same thing at 10:48. I wish someone would respond about this.
I thought delta was represented as a value between 1 and 0 on the call side, and -1 and 0 on the put side. Why is it -10.36 in this context?
They are express in %. Delta -0.1036 the same as 10.36% chance :)
He is showing delta as a percentage. So divide delta by 100 and you get -0.1036. In the video, he says Tesla has a 10% chance of closing below 105 on Feb 17th.
Awesome. Thanks 🍺
It’s the put side
if interest rates go up where should i look to put money into? I currently have $800k in a high yield savings account, yes I’m making gains but to what extent with inflation eating away at the dollar.
Long term? Stocks. Small-Caps are poised to perform better in the coming year despite Fed actions with rates to make investors worried. you should look into which the Best Small-Caps Stocks to position into.
Money advice is subjective, what works for you may not work for someone else, but it's always better to plan. I'm quite lucky exposed to personal finance at an early age, started job 19, bought first home 28, got laid-off work 36 amid covid-outbreak, and at once I consulted an advisor to handle growing my finance. As of today, I'm only 25% short of my $1m goal after subsequent investments.
wonderful ! thats what I want for myself, mind disclosing info of your advisor here? in dire need of guidance
Nicole Desiree Simon deserves credit as one of the finest portfolio managers in the industry. Her reputation precedes her, and I highly recommend looking her up to locate her online if you are internet-savvy
Thank you for sharing, I must say, Sharon appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call
I can also create a system for casino roulette that has a win rate of 90%. However, the 10% losses are greater than the 90% wins. Expected value the important thing.
how can i use this in weekly expiration options
There would be no difference using it for weeklys as using it for his example, Probabilities with delta are the same no matter what the timeframe is. it’s still the probability that the price will be hit.
Bare with me but isn’t a 90% chance of winning 10% equal to a 10% chance of losing 90%? Over time, statically you would break even, no?
Risking $4400 to make $600.
How do you manage this trade close to expiration when the trade is not going your way?
Sell it
You would have a stop as with any strategy and you may roll it ore-emptively if the overnight situation is too dangerous
Pray. Or hope that it hasn't moved so far against you that it's still possible to do a reasonable roll. Otherwise, you could end up rolling it out months ahead of where you are and tying up your capital... risking even more of a loss.
Near close of market straddles on the SPX have been known to be consistent for the last 2 years... if I heard correctly.
The ONLY way to have a 90% win rate is to be risking the entirety of the trade each and every time.
Even if you were right 9 out of 10 times, that one mistake will put you right back to zero.
Binary options nips that theory. You will lose entire trade valu but winning 90% of the time, u would be up significantly.
And after your trade makes 1000% and you lose 100% the next day, how much are you up then?
@@user-lf5ev1hx1n”0”
Correct. Also just because it's delta is saying you have an approximate 90% chance of the trade working, doesn't necessarily mean anything. There are macro events that can change that in a second... one max loss, or one rolled up trade that results in further losses... could reset months of winning trades.
@User the trade needs to be adjusted as I mention in the final section of the video.
The worst case scenario is the price at expiration is 100 and only the short leg expires ITM. I'd be obliged to buy 1000 shares of TSLA for 100k. If that is not in your trading account, there'll be some kind of liquidation very soon. 4410$ (5 x 100 x 10 - 590) is the worst case scenario only if the TSLA price dives below 100 where I have my long puts that act as a stop limit.
There're people out there who have lost their trading accounts because of this, just read and learn before you jump into this strategy.
The reward to risk ratio is so low, 1:9, which means if i lose once, i will lose all the money i won in the previous nine times!!! That’s why i dare not use the put credit spread
You can always close out the position when the short PUT is breached. That would minimize the loss.
Self-induced. That's a you problem. This tells me your risk management is 1%, but you're not cutting the loss at 1%. You keep riding the loss...holding and hoping, instead of just cutting it at 1% like you should be doing. For you to have a successful 9:1, you need to cut your losers at 1% and ride your winners to at least 9x your loss. Your average winner should be at least 9x your average loser.
@you, the trade is always managed to prevent such a scenario
@@mikep4869 that depends... if there is a large movement in the middle of the night, it could cause you to have a max loss. And if you breach the short strike, if there is a decent amount of theta left... it's not going to to be a minimized loss at all. These are the things casually left out of this video.
🙂
Why not use this strategy every week? Why wait for 2 months?
Yes, I was thinking the same. My guess would be that credit spread is still a directional bet, and a longer time til expiry date can help us in avoiding the potential losses.
Your souvenir-you could but you’d receive less per week and probably have to come much closer to the market.
Its funny that the people in the comments seem to know more than the guy who made this video. Ive never heard of anyone using Delta as a trading signal. Delta measures how much the option price changes per movement in the underlying. Delta changes all the time, IV changes all the time. For hedging that is okay, because you are market neutral so big changes might necessitate rebalancing but shouldnt be too impactful. But using Delta as a signal? Hu? Better to make your own model, apply Black Scholes and come up with your own price than try to use Delta as a proxy for the value of the option. That is NOT what Delta is used for.
@AB I didn’t call it a signal. It’s an entry point with a very high probability of success.
@@sethfreudberg4750 An entry point is a signal isn't it? I generally use signal synonymously with "signal to enter", "entry", etc. Most models I have seen use signal to denote the point at which the system suggests to buy/sell.
So the point of this video is to spend 4k to make 500? I'm confused
The same $4,500 in 'Buying Power Reduction (BPR), is used to make $550 every 2-months (if you're lucky enough to never lose). If you took a max loss just once, your year-end return would be like -35%. To do that, you are not watching the tape. But, it could happen.
@@mikep4869 thank you for the explanation. But now I have even more questions. As so the delve into the options rabbit hole begins.
Your receiving a credit of 500 and collateral is 4500. The 4500 is the worst case scenario. But it rarely ever happens. You can close at any time and take profits. Theta decay is going to pay you a little more every day since your selling. Unlike buying you’re relying on the fact that most options expire worthless to get paid. Hope that info helps a little.
@Jtawadro you’re not “spending” that amount. That’s the capital you put into the trade, which you roll into the next trade continuously.
It is beginning to make sense. Thanks for taking the time here. I LS'd to the channel.
$590 bucks, great. But my daughter made more selling lemonade in our front yard.
The market is 'generally bullish' so why not post videos based on that premise?
@lclarke, we are just trying to illustrate a strategy. We are not making commentary around the whole market.
You watch interviews of traders from this firm , seems like everyone is on their own , not sure what are they good for with all the prop forms offering better services these days .
We need a true tape reading video
We have many of those on this channel.
Don't waste your time with that... maybe if you use interactive brokers to trade it will be marginally helpful... or by using bookmap...
If you're rolling down & out why not just sell the Put. Forget about buying the protecting Put as you don't need it. ?
@the original, you’d only do that if you were happy to be long the stock at that price. That’s a different trade called a cash secured put. Plus your broker would margin you massively without the protection.
@@sethfreudberg4750 Hi Seth, thanks for your reply. Since the pros would be monitoring the spread for a move in Delta from 10 to 20, you could do the same thing with the naked Put. However, I get your point about needing the margin to cover the naked Put. Thanks.
This strategy’s risk reward ratio is not sustainable….the 10% time you lose, will take away all the gains from the 90% wins
@stefan not if managed like we teach in the video
Thank you.. I'm glad some people realize this.
high win rate === low R:R
Low win rate === high R:R
The ugly truth is most don't have the patience for this kind of trading.
@hate nor the discipline
I get everything minus how you get automatic money buying two puts. Think I’ll stay away from this strategy
Another carnival barker.
Why do you guys keep starting a new sales pitch on options in every video? What are you selling lol? Just tell us the strategy and stop pushing the prerecorded free training that always just happens to be starting within the hour.
It is called education. If you know well already why watch? Did you get your college education for free>
Clearly you are not buying what they are selling.
Would have lost $15000 if stock went down. When selling puts the stock can be taken away and your out 15 big ones. Horrible strategy in my pov.
@anthony, you’d never let the trade get to that point. You’d manage it like we suggested in the latter part of the video.
90% win rate. But you lose 200% on that 10%.
@kzen at the end of the video we talk about a management technique to prevent anything like that even remotely happening.
@kzen it needs to be managed like we demonstrated in the video.
@@sethfreudberg4750 There is no hard and fast rule to manage credit spreads; that's misinformation. It depends on a myriad of factors if you want to effectively employ risk management. This is not a dumbed down trading strategy that is easy to do for new traders. You're leaving a lot of details out. I would never encourage any new trader to start selling options... people have actually killed themselves over trading this EXACT same strategy and not understanding what they were doing... thinking they lost hundreds of thousands of dollars.
what kind of prop trading firm makes money and wastes time with YT😂
You guys are super deceptive now with your videos… stop misleading vulnerable traders.
New traders will be mislead by their own lack of knowledge and unwillingness to stay in demo. These videos are just to get your mind turning.
There are more deceptive videos out there with titles saying $10k a week from Put Credit Spreads on PLTR with a premium of $0.06. I don't see any deception in this video as it teaches to use a 10 Delta strike price, which would give the trade a probability of 90% win. I also appreciate that they added a solution when the problem of stock price is getting near to the short strike price. Anyway, this is just my opinion.
So I could just sell the Put and hold onto my $2500 or whatever and as it got closer I could buy to close?
Otherwise I’d just let it run and collect the $2500 for the sale?
And of course I’m gonna need the cash available in case they decide to exercise early, although that’s unlikely.
90% of anything is sketchy.. nothing is 90% a winner.. thank you
Not deceptive at all. This strategy does work. What should be discussed further is when to enter the trade. Because entering this trade in the wrong time can be very, very painful.
basic difference between possibility vs. probability.
Risk/reward point of view , this is worst strategy.
Who would take a trade you get 10% profit , if you are right and you loose 90%, when you are wrong 🤮
Do you need new glasses you are always tilting your head up in every video. Looks weird.
Absolutely awful advice. Something with a 10% chance of happening that can wipe out your profits when it does happen. If I lay (bet against) a horse with a 10% chance of winning the bookies will price that up at odds of 10.0 (or 9/1 in fractional odds), if I lay a 10.0 price horse for $10 then my liability is $90 and my potential winnings are $10. If I bet in 9 races and the horse loses each time I will win $90. If on the tenth race that horse wins I will *lose* $90 so back to square one.
@sportsprice-please watch the whole video. These trades are managed so that you never allow the drawdown to get even remotely close to 90%
This is a bad strategy in the long term
Soon or later you will get hit by the 100% loss of the trade because the expectancy is negative.
A 90% win rate would allow you to make a lot of money and stop having to make UA-cam videos, so... come on!
I have no idea but this guy makes even more complicated when he explain the option. Not even understood any of his videos. Better there are other option teachers more easier I supposed.
I got out from this channel.