Alan Foum Geophysicist
Alan Foum Geophysicist
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Risking Multiple Models in Oil & Gas Prospects
A hydrocarbon prospect can have several different valid geological models which may still be successful
Examples of such models include: fault seal, facies, porosity systems, fluid fill (O vs G) etc.
These models will have different chances of success
These models may also have significantly different volumes and value
When incorporating these into overall prospect analysis then we need to assign probabilities of occurrence to these models based on the geological evidence
If a model has very low value in case of success, then it may be incorporated into a failure case lowering the overall prospect COS
Key point is have we considered all the reasonable outcomes?
Переглядів: 94

Відео

Geological Interpretation - A Science or an Art
Переглядів 295Місяць тому
Article published by veteran geologist Jan de Jager in Geoxpro magazine in Autumn 2024 - Is petroleum geology a science or an art Geological interpretation (GI) is an art but based on solid science GI has become more quantitative as time has progressed But Imagination and creativity (Art) remains But is really a detective process Understanding and managing complex data of varying reliability an...
Sequence Stratigraphy - A Basic Primer
Переглядів 225Місяць тому
Sequence stratigraphy is a method of sub- dividing sedimentary rocks by their relative position to a changing sea level This technique is use by geologists to : Predict possible petroleum reservoirs and source rocks Correlate rock units relative to each other - making sense of a potentially complex rock record Predict sedimentary environments Can help with complex seismic interpretation Sequenc...
Petroleum Reservoirs - A Basic Primer
Переглядів 2382 місяці тому
This video is a basic primer on Petroleum reservoir rocks Reservoirs are a key part of the petroleum system and are the container for hydrocarbons in oil and gas fields Generally formed from sedimentary rocks, sandstones and carbonates - many varied sedimentary environments Porosity (% of rock composed of voids) is the capacity to hold hydrocarbons and permeability is the ability of the rock to...
Petroleum Trap Types - A Basic Primer
Переглядів 7373 місяці тому
A petroleum trap is a key part of the overall petroleum system Oil & Gas are buoyant and will float to the surface unless they are trapped by ponding Traps are a relative topographic high within the reservoir layer Traps come in a wide variety: Structural traps formed by tectonic deformation Stratigraphic traps formed by changes in sedimentary rock layering Only applies to conventional hydrocar...
King Coal is Still Going , Future Coal Demand Forecasts
Переглядів 8743 місяці тому
King Coal is far from dead - he has just moved to Asia Every six hours, the world consumes enough to build a coal replica of the Great Pyramid of Giza China accounts for more than half of global demand so Chinese policy decisions are crucial India is the next most important country Energy trilemma - Cost, Security , Pollution Energy Maslow Coal demand has declined and will continue to decline i...
Infrastructure Led Exploration - Why ILX Adds a Lot of Value
Переглядів 2744 місяці тому
Infrastructure led exploration (ILX) is exploration for oil and gas in areas adjacent to existing production facilities in mature basins The use of existing infrastructure has several benefits Lower costs through synergies Prolonging the life of existing fields by filling ullage Faster time to production May be lower geological risk than more remote areas But it is not without challenges Fluids...
Prospects Leads and Concepts in Hydrocarbon Exploration
Переглядів 4185 місяців тому
Explaining the difference between prospects leads and concepts in Oil and Gas Exploration Oil and Gas exploration is not that simple A fair amount of confusion about terms such as prospect, lead, concept etc. There is a massive difference between petroleum potential , undiscovered resources , discovered resources and hydrocarbon reserves There is progression from concept to discovery but there ...
FVF, GEF and Reservoir Fluids in Hydrocarbon Prospect Analysis a Basic Primer
Переглядів 2535 місяців тому
Formation Volume Factors are a key part of the Volumetric Equation Used to convert reservoir fluids (oil and gas) to standard storage conditions Oil shrinks when brought to the surface (as well as degassing) Gas expands when brought to the surface (remember Boyles law from high school) - with heavier hydrocarbons condensing out Variable parameters for prospect analysis (Low, Mid, High) Reservoi...
Segments in Hydrocarbon Prospect Analysis
Переглядів 3495 місяців тому
Some prospects are simple - a single reservoir which is believed to be fully connected BUT Reality is not always like this A prospect in a single play may be segmented by faults (or stratigraphy) A prospect may be divided by reservoir facies of different quality A single exploration well may test separate (but possibly linked) prospects with reservoirs belonging to different plays The segments ...
A Basic Primer on Net to Gross Ratio in Hydrocarbon Volumetrics
Переглядів 4795 місяців тому
Net /Gross Ratio is a major factor in the Volumetric equation for estimating the volumes contained in oil and gas fields This is the portion of the rock volume that contains porous rock capable of containing and producing hydrocarbons N/G is defined using sedimentological and petrophysical cut-offs N/G will exclude non - reservoir rock or rock of very poor reservoir quality (porosity and permea...
A Basic Primer on Hydrocarbon and Water Saturation (Sh-Sw)
Переглядів 8246 місяців тому
Hydrocarbon Saturation is a major factor in the Volumetric equation The pores are filled with fluid wither brine water, oil, natural gas or non hydrocarbon gases The proportion of hydrocarbons in the pores is the hydrocarbon saturation, Sh The portion of water in the pores is the water saturation, Sw Sh = (1-Sw) Higher Sh means that the pores contain more hydrocarbon Water saturation is average...
Hydrogen in Energy - A Basic Primer
Переглядів 1916 місяців тому
Hydrogen is prognosed to play a significant part in the future of energy as part of decarbonisation by some authors At present Hydrogen is almost exclusively used for petrochemicals, metallurgy and fertilizer But in the future may also be used for heat, transport & rapid response electricity generation - displacing some hydrocarbons in : * Industrial heat * Heavy transport * Maybe space heating...
Reservoir Modelling and Simulation - A Basic Primer
Переглядів 1,2 тис.7 місяців тому
A reservoir model is a mathematical simulation which predicts the production performance of the field, and is used to formulate an optimum development plan and effectively manage the reservoir - But it is only an Estimate not Reality It contains data from geophysics, geology, petrophysics, geochemistry (PVT and fluid properties) and well testing Results produced are production profiles based on...
Carbon Capture & Storage Business Models - A Basic Primer
Переглядів 6878 місяців тому
An overview of business models for Carbon Capture and Storage CCUS is an important component in decarbonisation Several business models exist - some more advanced than others Part of licence to operate - particularly for point high emitters BUT Dependent on government regulation Dependent on society acceptance Some countries more committed than others High Capex - Low margin business - need for...
Carbon Capture and Storage - A Basic Primer
Переглядів 1,1 тис.8 місяців тому
Carbon Capture and Storage - A Basic Primer
Where are New Hydrocarbons Going to Come From?
Переглядів 4939 місяців тому
Where are New Hydrocarbons Going to Come From?
Planning Oil & Gas Wells A Geologist’s Contribution
Переглядів 73510 місяців тому
Planning Oil & Gas Wells A Geologist’s Contribution
Geologically Risking Shale Plays
Переглядів 39911 місяців тому
Geologically Risking Shale Plays
China Dominates Electricity Capacity Additions in ALL areas
Переглядів 13411 місяців тому
China Dominates Electricity Capacity Additions in ALL areas
North American Shale Oil Companies Family Trees
Переглядів 334Рік тому
North American Shale Oil Companies Family Trees
Depth Conversion Using Velocity Functions in Seismic Interpretation
Переглядів 1,8 тис.Рік тому
Depth Conversion Using Velocity Functions in Seismic Interpretation
Probabilistic vs Deterministic Volumetric Estimates in Oil & Gas Prospects
Переглядів 2,4 тис.Рік тому
Probabilistic vs Deterministic Volumetric Estimates in Oil & Gas Prospects
Valuing Oil & Gas Assets A Perspective for M&A
Переглядів 1,9 тис.Рік тому
Valuing Oil & Gas Assets A Perspective for M&A
Reflections on Seismic Family Trees - An Update on the State of the Seismic Industry
Переглядів 817Рік тому
Reflections on Seismic Family Trees - An Update on the State of the Seismic Industry
Fossil Energy Subsidies - An Analysis
Переглядів 196Рік тому
Fossil Energy Subsidies - An Analysis
Petroleum Licensing -Licensing Rounds and Lease Sales - How Governments Manage their Oil & Gas
Переглядів 496Рік тому
Petroleum Licensing -Licensing Rounds and Lease Sales - How Governments Manage their Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas Recovery Factors a Basic Primer
Переглядів 1,8 тис.Рік тому
Oil & Gas Recovery Factors a Basic Primer
11 People Who Made the Oil Industry
Переглядів 592Рік тому
11 People Who Made the Oil Industry
Well Results Analysis- What Dry Holes Can Tell you for Future Oil Exploration
Переглядів 864Рік тому
Well Results Analysis- What Dry Holes Can Tell you for Future Oil Exploration

КОМЕНТАРІ

  • @sampathvangala3694
    @sampathvangala3694 20 днів тому

    Please make video on Saturation Height Fumction

    • @AlanFoumGeophysicist
      @AlanFoumGeophysicist 19 днів тому

      I would have a look at Steve Cuddy's posts on Linked in for Saturation Height functions - he knows more about this topic

  • @pvsgiri
    @pvsgiri 28 днів тому

    Crucial history to understand O&G industry.

  • @marysolmijares9718
    @marysolmijares9718 Місяць тому

    Thank you!

  • @MarkSloan-TheEnemyofSpin
    @MarkSloan-TheEnemyofSpin Місяць тому

    Really enjoyed this video Alan, in my opinion one of your best! You really made it all very clear for those unsure of exactly what we do!

  • @CERQUAWojtun
    @CERQUAWojtun Місяць тому

    Ich habe viel gelernt, danke!

  • @KalLatif
    @KalLatif Місяць тому

    Great, thanks 👍

  • @adaosuzoka2430
    @adaosuzoka2430 Місяць тому

    Thank you so much for this video. It was so helpful. Please, could I connect with you on LinkedIn? Thanks

  • @evanbrown2594
    @evanbrown2594 2 місяці тому

    Solid overview!

  • @lmp9726
    @lmp9726 2 місяці тому

    Excellent, sir!

  • @erbterb
    @erbterb 3 місяці тому

    I have watched several videos on EOR, specifically steam flooding as a good way to change the viscosity. Others have shown CO2 injection as a way to normalise the hydrocarbons. Gas/heavy oil and gas/gas exchange. So why does one not start each project with high temp CO2 injection? You flush the pores with gas, while still at pressure and get the benefits of viscosity changes. You also please the frequent flyer climate hypocrites by pumping down their emissions from cross continental flights. Why start with just normal suction, when you can start with EOR directly?

    • @AlanFoumGeophysicist
      @AlanFoumGeophysicist 3 місяці тому

      It is probably a matter of cost vs return - A recovery method for an oilfield is determined in the initial development plan to give the maximum return for the money invested - EOR can be done from day one - but a. you need a source of CO2 or steam and significant extra engineering which costs b. the extra oil recovered by EOR needs to be worth more than the cost of the EOR c. The operator needs to really understand EOR - the more complex a project (and EOR is complex to implement) the more scope there is for cost and time over runs d. Most large oilfields for which EOR is suitable were first developed a long time ago (decades) when EOR was a mere glint in an engineers eye rather than a proven technology, hence late implementation e. There is a not invented here mentality among some operators which can hinder progress

  • @g.ashwinshiva6578
    @g.ashwinshiva6578 3 місяці тому

    thank you sir , keep making these video

  • @bertross9727
    @bertross9727 3 місяці тому

    Succint and sobering analysis. If the OECD are serious, should they be focusing on reducing exports as well as consumption?

    • @AlanFoumGeophysicist
      @AlanFoumGeophysicist 3 місяці тому

      The OECD are just not as important as they think they are. Only USA (7% of global coal exports) and Australia (25%) are significant coal exporters non OECD countries represent 2/3 of the world export coal trade. Most of the growth in coal production in recent years has also been in Asia and the biggest consumers (China & India) are relatively self sufficient Only 21 % of world coal is consumed outside the country where it is mined, compared to the 42% of oil which is consumed outside the country of production

  • @aldonfroelick7392
    @aldonfroelick7392 3 місяці тому

    There are 300 coal fired powerplants either under construction or planned in Asia. This statement got me perma banned from Reddit climate change page.

    • @AlanFoumGeophysicist
      @AlanFoumGeophysicist 3 місяці тому

      The source of the coal plant data is globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-coal-plant-tracker/

  • @EeshanDevalia-fx6xw
    @EeshanDevalia-fx6xw 3 місяці тому

    What are the need of making this whole project, and which chemicals are needed?

    • @AlanFoumGeophysicist
      @AlanFoumGeophysicist 3 місяці тому

      CO2 capture is not a particularly chemical intensive process, Amine solvents are used in Co2 absorption in some low volume settings - This paper by Dziejarski, Serafin et al might help www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589234723001690#:~:text=Generally%2C%20the%20most%20widely%20used,%2C%20biochar%2C%20and%20hydrochar).

  • @TROVE-1stSubsurface
    @TROVE-1stSubsurface 4 місяці тому

    Great video on ILX Alan. Worth noting the synonyms - NFE - near field exploration, ERD - extended reach Drlling (those targets which can be drilled from the platform rig). Am sure there are others.

  • @DonaldWilliams88Rox88
    @DonaldWilliams88Rox88 5 місяців тому

    Very well done. Ty for the presentation 🎉

  • @riansagemilang
    @riansagemilang 5 місяців тому

    good Presentation, my i have your PDF Presentation

  • @CuriousEarthMan
    @CuriousEarthMan 5 місяців тому

    Great detail, thank you!

  • @KalLatif
    @KalLatif 5 місяців тому

    Brilliant 👍 Thanks 🙏

  • @samcrosswords8979
    @samcrosswords8979 6 місяців тому

    Thank you so much! Cleaer and to the point 👍

  • @jediTempleGuard
    @jediTempleGuard 6 місяців тому

    It indeed is difficult when one is stressed out. Not just in financial terms, but it is also hard to focus on your job, which in turn has a negative impact on your personal brand.

  • @jediTempleGuard
    @jediTempleGuard 6 місяців тому

    I watched some of your videos and found out that they are actually pretty good, informative videos. So, I decided to start from the beginning :) Thanks for sharing your experience. Regards.

  • @danielteixeira6497
    @danielteixeira6497 6 місяців тому

    Thank you for the analisys Alan. Do you have any videos or know any good resourcers on the economics of the carbon emission markets?

    • @AlanFoumGeophysicist
      @AlanFoumGeophysicist 6 місяців тому

      I think that the Oxford Institute of Energy studies - www.oxfordenergy.org/ may be a good place to start

  • @delbarb-dl4xt
    @delbarb-dl4xt 8 місяців тому

    Thank you Mr. Alan, I'm from Zanzibar and I'm quite impressive seeing a log of Zanzibar Geophysics on top corner of every page you explain

  • @delbarb-dl4xt
    @delbarb-dl4xt 8 місяців тому

    Excellent and well informative

  • @viniciusriguete6644
    @viniciusriguete6644 9 місяців тому

    Thanks, Alan! Very interesting

  • @MarkSloan-TheEnemyofSpin
    @MarkSloan-TheEnemyofSpin 9 місяців тому

    Outstanding presentation Alan...loved it!

  • @sandipkumarroy1654
    @sandipkumarroy1654 9 місяців тому

    Excellent Alan. Great content, presentation and thought. I would still love to quote Wallace Pratt " Oil, in final analysis, is found in the minds of men." New exploration ideas, untested deeper horizons in matured basins, untested basins, unconventionals ( a breakthrough in production testing in gas hydrates) are attributed to hydrocarbons of tomorrow. There is no doubt that technology and the cost of it acts as key catalysts.

  • @rockstonerd
    @rockstonerd 10 місяців тому

    Great video!

  • @stanislavgritciuk337
    @stanislavgritciuk337 Рік тому

    Great analysis, thank you

  • @filwhip
    @filwhip Рік тому

    Super interesting! Thank you

  • @setme4ree
    @setme4ree Рік тому

    Why would you choose a 19.5% recovery factor?

    • @AlanFoumGeophysicist
      @AlanFoumGeophysicist Рік тому

      I do not remember saying 19.5% for a recovery factor having re looked at the script PowerPoint I tend to use round numbers A 20% recovery factor would be disappointing for an oil field, 35 to 40% would be more typical for a mid case A recovery factor is an artificial construct being the recovered volume / in place volume - a 19.5% recovery factor is therefore possible but I would be a bit suspicious of anyone quoting decimal places in this situation

  • @crowlsyong
    @crowlsyong Рік тому

    Brilliant! UA-cam tossed this in my recommended videos, and I’m blown away. You’ve got me curious about geophysics now, and well planning. Thank you, have a great day.

  • @TROVE-1stSubsurface
    @TROVE-1stSubsurface Рік тому

    Great summary Alan. In your hypothetical Swanson's Rule slide its a bit scary your Swanson Mean ($308mm) is significantly higher than your mid case ($261mm). I wouldn't recommend this method for justifying a bid. 😂😂 "Averages" are typically overly-influenced by big numbers.

    • @AlanFoumGeophysicist
      @AlanFoumGeophysicist Рік тому

      Mike - using Swanson's rule takes both high and low cases into account which I believe is necessary - the tricky bit as you say is choosing appropriate high and low values for the estimation - a high case which is too high will as you say skew the result upwards a probabilistic / Monte-Carlo approach may be better - I do feel that using a single number from a best /most likely case will also have its flaws as it does not take uncertainty into account , however many managers do like a single number

  • @TROVE-1stSubsurface
    @TROVE-1stSubsurface Рік тому

    Another great video Alan! The family trees are impressive, that's a lot of work and a complex evolution.

  • @medyassinekhadri7631
    @medyassinekhadri7631 Рік тому

    Thanks for your clarity.

  • @shadabkhan-yh6li
    @shadabkhan-yh6li Рік тому

    While calculating the economics, should we use the minimum GIIP numbers or mean GIIP number??

    • @AlanFoumGeophysicist
      @AlanFoumGeophysicist Рік тому

      I talk about this in my Basic economics primer video To sum up we should use recoverable resource estimates not Volume in place We should really use 3 cases , low. mid and high: weighted using Swanson's rule - with 30% weighting to low and high and 40% weighting to the mid case to come up with a summary NPV value If we are to use one case only (not ideal) then we should use the mean case as this represents an average of all the cases

    • @shadabkhan-yh6li
      @shadabkhan-yh6li Рік тому

      @@AlanFoumGeophysicist ok thank you. i appreciate your swift response

  • @TROVE-1stSubsurface
    @TROVE-1stSubsurface Рік тому

    Another great primer Alan. Deepwater seems to be making a comeback with so many DP semi-subs heading for Namibia and drillships to Guyana-Suriname, to name but two active areas. Rig rates are again high for these vessels and a dry hole can cost anywhere up to $200 million. However, as you show in the Hess Liza slide, the returns can be substantial!

  • @TROVE-1stSubsurface
    @TROVE-1stSubsurface Рік тому

    Another great video. Whilst I agree dry hole are great learning, give me a discovery EVERY time!!

    • @AlanFoumGeophysicist
      @AlanFoumGeophysicist Рік тому

      Yes to paraphrase Confucius - a discovery has a thousand parents , a dry hole is an orphan

  • @wassimsayeb1329
    @wassimsayeb1329 Рік тому

    Great presentation Alan !

  • @mazenomar7279
    @mazenomar7279 Рік тому

    I have two quiz.the first sone company use total porosity instead of effecive one.do you suggest why .the second one what is the basis for choosing montecarlo distribution input curve.❤❤

    • @AlanFoumGeophysicist
      @AlanFoumGeophysicist Рік тому

      Effective porosity is the porosity that is connected, Total porosity includes non connected pores. The non connected pores cannot contain hydrocarbons. The connected pores may contain producible hydrocarbons and therefore this is what should be used in HC in place estimation. The two porosity estimates are usually very close in most rocks - please see my video a basic primer on porosity and permeability

  • @thomasvogelsinger4007
    @thomasvogelsinger4007 Рік тому

    Do you think offshore oil is the place to be in the next bull run in oil ? Thanks

    • @AlanFoumGeophysicist
      @AlanFoumGeophysicist Рік тому

      I do not know - but almost all the giant fields that have been discovered since 2000 worldwide have been in deep water and about 70 to 80% of the volumes discovered by large listed companies since 2000 were also in deep water settings If you are talking about the USA , namely the Gulf of Mexico I do not know enough about it but some significant discoveries have been made in the recent past - Question will the US large Caps that have concentrated virtually exclusively on shale come back to conventional exploration?

  • @TROVE-1stSubsurface
    @TROVE-1stSubsurface Рік тому

    Great video Alan. Very insightful and informative. Congratulations on reaching UA-cam 1,000 subscribers - well deserved.

  • @brugnamename6133
    @brugnamename6133 Рік тому

    the Earth needs more CO2. It is what sustains all plant life on Earth. This yammering about ppm of CO2 is to frighten the people who don't know better. I call total BS on this entire premise.

  • @MauZlatan
    @MauZlatan Рік тому

    Very interesting!

  • @Thewestslope
    @Thewestslope Рік тому

    I'll side with the EIA forecast. Naturally, I am assuming that large numbers of people in EMES and lesser-developed poor countries continue to lift millions upon millions out of poverty. I am also assuming that the USA and other countries do not budge off their 'cheap energy entitlement' and gratuitous virtue-signalling remains a significant force behind policy in the USA and other countries.

  • @TROVE-1stSubsurface
    @TROVE-1stSubsurface Рік тому

    Hi Alan, If you are looking to do a follow up on crude oil types, we have the TROVE Crude Oil Catalogue which features data on over 440 different crudes worldwide. As well as API Gravity and Sulphur content, we also have production figures, wax content, cloud point, pour point, Reid vapour pressure, kinematic viscosity, nitrogen content, vanadium content, acidity, contributing fields, region & country. Let me know if this helps. ATB, Mike

  • @maximskuzovatov3552
    @maximskuzovatov3552 Рік тому

    Alan, there is so much useful information in your videos. Great job! Keep doing it.

  • @ianthehunter3532
    @ianthehunter3532 Рік тому

    This came up as recommendation for me.

  • @Thewestslope
    @Thewestslope Рік тому

    Thanks. Much appreciated. This is not my field so I need to keep reviewing the material.