Cameron Nixon
Cameron Nixon
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Відео

Hail Forecasting 101
Переглядів 4 тис.Рік тому
Here, we dive into the last decade of hail research and explore what makes a large hail environment.
Deviant Tornadoes - Analysis of the Cole OK Tornado April 19 2023
Переглядів 6 тис.Рік тому
In this video, we take a deep dive into a very chaotic tornado event in central Oklahoma. Lucky for us, we have both high-resolution radar imagery with GRLevel2, *and* tons of cool structure shots from chasers at all angles around this storm. Thank you so much to everyone who contributed, and thank you to my chase partners. Without you, none of this would be possible! :)
How to Hodograph
Переглядів 37 тис.2 роки тому
Here, I highlight some of the recent advances in our understanding of how hodographs can be used to predict storm behavior. I also examine our traditional forecast workflow and parameters through a fresh (and critical) lens. This video is intended as an educational demonstration for forecasters, though storm spotters and other enthusiasts may find it useful.
Mesoscale Musings - March 25 2021 (1500z) - Southeast U.S.
Переглядів 6113 роки тому
For educational purposes only; please defer to the Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service for timely, official forecasts
Mesoscale Musings - May 30 2020 (1600z) - OR / WA
Переглядів 2954 роки тому
For educational purposes only; please defer to the Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service for timely, official forecasts
Mesoscale Musings - April 22 2020 (1500z) - SE OK / NE TX
Переглядів 3694 роки тому
For educational purposes only; please defer to the Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service for timely, official forecasts
Mesoscale Musings - April 12 2020 (1600z) - Southeast
Переглядів 9324 роки тому
For educational purposes only; please defer to the Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service for timely, official forecasts
Mesoscale Musings - April 7 2020 (1600z) - Michigan to the Virginias
Переглядів 1744 роки тому
For educational purposes only; please defer to the Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service for timely, official forecasts
Mesoscale Musings - March 28 2020 (2300z) - Midwest
Переглядів 2544 роки тому
For educational purposes only; please defer to the Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service for timely, official forecasts
Mesoscale Musings - March 24 2020 (1600z) - Texas
Переглядів 964 роки тому
For educational purposes only; please defer to the Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service for timely, official forecasts
Mesoscale Musings - March 19 2020 (1600z) - Ohio River Valley / Iowa
Переглядів 2174 роки тому
For educational purposes only; please defer to the Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service for timely, official forecasts
Mesoscale Musings - March 18 2020 (1900z) - Texas
Переглядів 1894 роки тому
For educational purposes only; please defer to the Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service for timely, official forecasts
Mesoscale Musings - March 2 2020 (2300z) - AR/KY/TN
Переглядів 1284 роки тому
For educational purposes only; please defer to the Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service for timely, official forecasts
Mesoscale Musings - September 24 2019 (2100z) - Midwest
Переглядів 965 років тому
For educational purposes only; please defer to the Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service for timely, official forecasts
Mesoscale Musings - September 3 2019 (1600z) - Michigan
Переглядів 1315 років тому
Mesoscale Musings - September 3 2019 (1600z) - Michigan
Mesoscale Musings - August 29 2019 (1800z) - Michigan
Переглядів 1185 років тому
Mesoscale Musings - August 29 2019 (1800z) - Michigan
Envisioning a Supercell - The Storm-Relative Hodograph
Переглядів 4,2 тис.5 років тому
Envisioning a Supercell - The Storm-Relative Hodograph

КОМЕНТАРІ

  • @piconick79
    @piconick79 18 днів тому

    This has got to be one of the most useful storm chasing video ever! this is genuinely incredible!!!

  • @williamjones8640
    @williamjones8640 27 днів тому

    To get a worst case tornado that would travel a continuous 100 miles, be 2 miles wide, have a pressure differential of 150mb, winds as high as 350 mph , and move a straight northeastward track then what would the STP parameters look like to get that going? Also what would the hodograph look like of that impending worst case tornado?

    • @ethanhensley9355
      @ethanhensley9355 22 дні тому

      Well it’s not that easy to simply just predict something like this, but if we use El Reno for example it had cape values of 3000 throughout the day so a high level of instability. There was a super strong elevated mixed layer cap that day, mu cinh in the negative 120s. So when the cap is that strong it takes significant forcing which causes explosive storm development and lets the cape rise and brew throughout the day, which it did. 0-3km cape was almost 200 which is incredibly high low level instability, which made up for the relatively low wind shear, you’d usually want a wide bowing shape on the hodograph for wide wind shear but with cape of upwards to 5000 that can go out the window. So worse case scenario high cape (3000-4500), 0-3km cape nearing 200, 0-6km bulk shear of 80 knots or so, a good critical angle is important for good turning of winds and enhances the ability for rotating updrafts. The highest srh value to be recorded was around 450 but literal worse case scenario shear can bring those levels into the thousands, most likely impossible but worse case scenario here. You’d also want that low cinh for the strong elevated mix layer cap, if the negative is too low storms could fire too early and not build enough cape I hope that made sense at all I was kinda yapping

    • @williamjones8640
      @williamjones8640 22 дні тому

      @@ethanhensley9355 No that was a great explanation of that. I really appreciate you very much for taking time out of your schedule to tell me all that. Knowledge is so vital and I hate it when people like to deprive me of such knowledge.

    • @ethanhensley9355
      @ethanhensley9355 22 дні тому

      @@williamjones8640 That’s great to hear brother meteorology is so cool. There’s plenty of other things you can look at if you’d be interested for tornadic supercell production. Like looking at jet stream maps for troughs and ridges where exit regions of low pressure and entrance regions of wind convergence and updrafts can occur. Or dew point and temp maps to point out the cold, warm and dry lines and find the triple point where those meet which is usually your target region for storm development. There’s just so much to study it’s really fascinating

  • @itsleotv8487
    @itsleotv8487 Місяць тому

    Thank you for this information, really well-done man. I absorbed it like a sponge.

  • @MattMorganJP
    @MattMorganJP 2 місяці тому

    You do an amazing job explaining everything.

  • @Brandon-jv4wp
    @Brandon-jv4wp 2 місяці тому

    This was excellent!!! 👌👌👌👌

  • @sammylacks4937
    @sammylacks4937 3 місяці тому

    I finally got something right. I picked the top storm because the meso looked more developed. Either that or just lucky like a blind hog looking for an acorn

  • @oyeahtoys
    @oyeahtoys 4 місяці тому

    I want to see that all in reverse so it looks like it's water flowing down a drain. Too bad UA-cam doesn't have a play backwards option.

  • @MeganLyle
    @MeganLyle 4 місяці тому

    Did the cyclic and long-track tornado-producers reflectivity maps get swapped when you switched from the still to the moving examples? Or am I losing my mind? (2:45 ish) Regardless, thank you for this talk!!

  • @davesing
    @davesing 4 місяці тому

    Fantastic work, great job!

  • @ecleveland1
    @ecleveland1 4 місяці тому

    This guy picked the wrong career. He should have been a DJ at a Hard Rock radio station with that deep base of a voice.

  • @bigaaron
    @bigaaron 4 місяці тому

    Ho do graph, if I ask her to

  • @lifepro77777
    @lifepro77777 4 місяці тому

    Jesus Christ, as much as I would like to appreciate this video and intellect, I gotta tell you, what a horribly boring tech world day n age this has become, where everyone has all of a sudden grown a master mind, video posting their genius digressions for monetization dollars that silicon nerd valley created. What a terribly oversaturated time period this has become, that has truly taken the passion and intrigue out of life that will never be again. But hey, at least today's generational and their kids will automate into Phd grauduates without ever having to attend a class or pay for it to achieve. Just click on youtube and watch. Hodograph away kids, hodograph away....!!!

  • @joeyprom5641
    @joeyprom5641 4 місяці тому

    15:21, I have seen this a lot when chasing. Lightbulb moment. I will often see the occluded old cycle of a storm off to the SW, behind the rain, while the new cycle spins up. They always appear to be very skinny. I always used to think those were the dying mesocyclone, but I think those are actually the dying, occluded tornadocyclone, after the tornado has lifted.

  • @justmemtb
    @justmemtb 4 місяці тому

    Would be cool to know first is how is this Hodograph data is collected? Ballons or radar???? And what the circular map represents...ground area or elevation cross section?

    • @RandomGuy-ch7ur
      @RandomGuy-ch7ur 4 місяці тому

      The ones shown in the video are from weather balloons, but it is possible to get this from Doppler radar using Velocity Azimuth Display (VAD) Wind Profiles aka VWP.

  • @zal88
    @zal88 5 місяців тому

    you and convective chronicles "trey" have been my 2 favorite people to watch to learn how to forecast and read the weather better

  • @Emanuel_carey
    @Emanuel_carey 5 місяців тому

    What did you learn classs… 15:50 calling your 1 year old a tornado is an accurate depiction.

  • @johnesterheld3127
    @johnesterheld3127 6 місяців тому

    Great presentation, Cameron! I like the mention of the SE US tornadic hodographs frequently having less than 90 degree critical angle. We’ve noticed the same thing. One question we have is, what impact do forested areas have on the surface wind measurements and the critical angle?

  • @janledford3010
    @janledford3010 6 місяців тому

    Ok, how have I missed you??? Or maybe I haven’t and just didn’t catch your name, because that voice of yours no one could forget!!! I’m an instant fan!! This is an amazing analysis!!! I knew about these tornadoes, but had no idea of this fascinating day of events. Thankyou for your knowledge, and these wonderful pictures of the incredible and beautiful structures of these storms. I hope you have the full chase, I’m fixing to look for everything you have! God bless you and stay safe out there!!! Can’t wait to see what else awaits me on your channel!!!!😁🙏🙏

  • @ThunderChasers
    @ThunderChasers 6 місяців тому

    I'll never forget this day. We saw Cole, Washington, and Etowah. Then we got caught behind driving through the aftermath. We stayed south of the storms the entire time.

  • @MezoPsyclone
    @MezoPsyclone 7 місяців тому

    I'm from the PNW and appreciate you taking this on lol

  • @federiconegrometeo5194
    @federiconegrometeo5194 7 місяців тому

    this is very exaustive! The explanation is very insteresting! Federico from Italy by PRETEMP

  • @PFA...
    @PFA... 7 місяців тому

    And today, we hodograph!!

  • @Derrick6162
    @Derrick6162 7 місяців тому

    Great lecture, enjoyed. Alot of need to know information. Thanks.

  • @EthanBWeather
    @EthanBWeather 8 місяців тому

    It was awesome to see this presentation while attending the convention, thank you very much!

  • @jglstorms
    @jglstorms 8 місяців тому

    I finally got to take a look at this. I noticed the Etowah to Pink meso tracked in sync with the Zdr column aloft. Amazing example of a deviant motion of supercell allowing the tornadoes to keep persisting while moving due N. The Shawnee Zdr column was impressive as it sped toward town.

  • @ericascali5427
    @ericascali5427 8 місяців тому

    😢😢😢😢😢😓😓😓😓😓😓🙊🙊🙊🙊🙊🙊🙊🙊

  • @andrewmacklin3204
    @andrewmacklin3204 8 місяців тому

    Thanks! This will help keep my windshield in-tact this May

  • @andrewmacklin3204
    @andrewmacklin3204 8 місяців тому

    Super informative, thanks Cameron!

  • @zachsteiner
    @zachsteiner 9 місяців тому

    Love your sense of humor too!

  • @zachsteiner
    @zachsteiner 9 місяців тому

    Wow I see why Trey from convective chronicles speaks so highly of you and calls you the hodograph master. Excellent presentation, learned a lot. Thank you!

  • @PecosHank
    @PecosHank 9 місяців тому

    Big thanks!

  • @Lavacommand
    @Lavacommand 10 місяців тому

    I have a question, There have been some Supercells that produce Strong Tornadoes with Large Hail, are those events most recorded in Cell Mergers/Off-season Tornado events?

  • @DertiDerty
    @DertiDerty 10 місяців тому

    Fascinating video !! I have two questions :-) 1) I have often read that the quantity of supercooled water inside a cumulonimbus is important for the formation of hail, but here you do not talk about it. Is this an outdated concept? 2) Can the reasoning about the storm-relative wind also be applied to the mean motion vector (the small brown square on the hodograph)? You apply it to the RM in your video. By the way, do you plan to make similar videos for the other two hazards, tornadoes and microbursts ?

  • @DertiDerty
    @DertiDerty 10 місяців тому

    Hello, You said in another video that supercells with sculpted laminar bases (indicative of forced ascent) are generally unfavorable for tornadoes. This is a great counter-example! By the way, how do you explain the sort of "collar" that we can see at 29:07 at the top of the low-level updrafts ?

    • @CameronJNixon
      @CameronJNixon 10 місяців тому

      Definitely a great counter-example!! And really good question. *Generally*, structure is widest in layers where there's more moisture (since it's easier for clouds to condense farther away from the strongest rising motion). So, in this case, there would be a moist layer near the ground, a dry layer in the mid-levels, and a moist layer again above that. This is actually common in classic EML chase days, which feature a very dry layer advected above a moist boundary layer, with remnant Pacific moisture aloft!

    • @DertiDerty
      @DertiDerty 10 місяців тому

      @@CameronJNixon Thank you !

  • @AndreWehrle
    @AndreWehrle 10 місяців тому

    25:00 That's pretty much exactly my thought on your other video. This was one of several cases we've seen in recent years where a deviant tornado nearly moves out of the warning polygon, with a new one issued with just a couple minutes' lead time for the actual track of the tornado.

  • @AndreWehrle
    @AndreWehrle 10 місяців тому

    18:55 I remember watching that. That was nuts to see the tornado couplet move due north up the back side of the supercell. That's a major safety issue not only for chasers but for the general public, if you've read the storm motion as indicated in the NWS warning text (for example..."MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH") and are looking for the tornado to the southwest or west but instead it comes out of the due south or even southeast. It's also an issue for broadcast meteorologists who may be relaying the NWS info to the public, see the couplet deviate on their radar, but feel they shouldn't contradict the NWS so as not to confuse the messaging. We also saw an interesting example of deviant motion in this year's July 12th outbreak in the Chicago area; SPC and many chasers (myself included) were expecting the storms to turn right along the warm front, moving south of due east, but the tornadoes occluded almost instantly and moved due east. Trey Greenwood (@ConvectiveChronicles) talked about this in his video on the event.

    • @pilerks1
      @pilerks1 10 місяців тому

      Just because the supercell is moving Northwest does not mean its tornado is moving at the same speed and direction.

  • @blakebarber6935
    @blakebarber6935 10 місяців тому

    When you’re scrolling through the hodos around the 5 min mark, it’s AMAZING to see how the shape of every storm coincides with the shape of its hodograph!

  • @PFA...
    @PFA... 10 місяців тому

    Always be to the south! And, with experience, get closer. And know how to drive in R. or, you might die.

  • @hgbugalou
    @hgbugalou 10 місяців тому

    Excellent presentation.

  • @raysadbury8907
    @raysadbury8907 11 місяців тому

    Just wanted to pop in and say that I love all of your videos!! I’m someone who is a complete novice when it comes to storms and meteorological science. I’m not a storm chaser, but I am fascinated by severe storms and really enjoy learning through the experiences of those out there in the field. I know that your videos, especially the ones going over hodographs, are more geared toward people who have a good working knowledge of reading and interpreting weather data. I’ve watched all of them, and they are so fascinating that I’ve spent even more time trying to learn more so that I can fully grasp everything you touch on. Even though there has been material that is over my head, you still do a really great job of breaking things down in an easy to digest and understand manner. It would be amazing if you ever get the opportunity to create a video that breaks down some of the more complex data analysis stuff. I think it could help a lot of people! Either way, keep up the great work!

  • @PecosHank
    @PecosHank 11 місяців тому

    Very informative. Kinda glad I chose the Flint Hills target this day.

    • @mattmangrum5715
      @mattmangrum5715 10 місяців тому

      Pecos is always everywhere 🫡🫡🤣🤣🌪️🌪️🌪️🌪️🌪️🌪️🌪️🌪️

    • @jamiedawson7060
      @jamiedawson7060 9 місяців тому

      Hank=G.O.A.T

    • @MattMorganJP
      @MattMorganJP 2 місяці тому

      Great musician. Great storm chaser!

  • @NickSchrader
    @NickSchrader 11 місяців тому

    Hi Cameron, I attended Chasercon in Danville, IN today and your lecture on hodographs was extremely helpful and informative. Thank you very much for sharing your knowledge with us, and I wish you the best of luck with your research project.

  • @keyboardwarrior4092
    @keyboardwarrior4092 11 місяців тому

    never knew vin diesel was into meteorology

  • @CM-yp2hg
    @CM-yp2hg Рік тому

    I got my undergrad on biochemistry but my passion for learning and observing storms definitely makes me wants to go back. I want to be a meteorologist. Thank you for sharing your knowledge with us!

  • @MrArcadia2009
    @MrArcadia2009 Рік тому

    Very helpful video, thank you. I seek to understand Hodographs, myself. Done a lot of personal research on severe storms.

  • @mortenk8250
    @mortenk8250 Рік тому

    Brilliant video! Should be watched by every professional forecaster.

  • @helensun1304
    @helensun1304 Рік тому

    Yes, great content and learned new things from it.

  • @HunterAnderson
    @HunterAnderson Рік тому

    Seeing those EML lapse rates between 8.4-9.5C/km on the proximity soundings is just *mwahhh* chef's kiss. Target the EML!!! (-; Thanks for sharing your analysis on this Cameron. The evolution makes much more sense after learning about the intricacies of storm motion, vorticity vectors, and their effects/relationship to the hodograph thanks to your prior lecturing videos, discussions/research on your website, and random banter online. I remember working operations this night and issuing only a couple wider TORs just to account for deviant tornado potential - I didn't want to chase each individual circulation and have overlapping polygons/warnings which would likely cause confusion to our customers down there. Definitely a different method than what OUN carried out, but they still captured everything at least. What a wicked event with some top-tier structure!

  • @nightmare1010
    @nightmare1010 Рік тому

    This was amazing! Taking my notes while watching this for the second time! I'm still wondering how to predict wind events, although they may be more simple? I know a few things, but not quite enough. Anyways, thank you for this informative video!

  • @ba_1222
    @ba_1222 Рік тому

    just in time to add to my road trip learning vids!