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Power Law Investor
Приєднався 20 сер 2024
Crypto investing using mathematics and the power law to determine asset valuations of Bitcoin and Kaspa. Live tracking the journey with $100 daily investments to $10K total deployed! 1 year time horizon at least!
Power Law Investor - Adjusting the Kaspa Power Law for KRC-20 #kaspacrypto #powerlaw
I discuss an adjustment to the kaspa power law using the KRC20 protocol adjustment #kaspa #bitcoin #powerlaw. Power Law still looks good, we can just make a simple adjustment
Find me on X at x.com/PowerLawInvest
Sign up for email updates with charts at www.powerlawinvestor.com
Find me on X at x.com/PowerLawInvest
Sign up for email updates with charts at www.powerlawinvestor.com
Переглядів: 971
Відео
Power Law Investor Week #17 Kaspa Power Law - #bitcoin , #kaspa and more! Part 2
Переглядів 225День тому
Part of 2 of the video, got cut off -
Power Law Investor Week #17 Kaspa Power Law - #bitcoin , #kaspa and more!
Переглядів 176День тому
We discuss how the weekly DCA using the power law to invest in crypto assets is coming along #kaspa #bitcoin #powerlaw. I explain what is going on with the Kaspa price, what we can expect and how to possibly take advantage of it! Find me on X at x.com/PowerLawInvest Sign up for email updates with charts at www.powerlawinvestor.com
Power Law Investor Week #13 Kaspa Power Law - #bitcoin , #kaspa and more - finally in profit!
Переглядів 122Місяць тому
We discuss how the weekly DCA using the power law to invest in crypto assets is coming along #kaspa #bitcoin #powerlaw. I explain what is going on with the Kaspa price, what we can expect and how to possibly take advantage of it! Find me on X at x.com/PowerLawInvest Sign up for email updates with charts at www.powerlawinvestor.com
Kaspa price action explained through KRC20 introduction and transaction fees - A revised power law
Переглядів 245Місяць тому
I explain what is going on with the #kaspa price, and how I believe a large part can be explained by miners getting increased kaspa and increasing selling pressure. I also explore what we can expect and how to possibly take advantage of it! This is still a work in progress and I will refine the estimates as I develop a more appropriate model but wanted to get this out there ASAP so you guys can...
Power Law Investor Week #12 Kaspa Power Law - #bitcoin , #kaspa and more
Переглядів 219Місяць тому
We discuss how the weekly DCA using the power law to invest in crypto assets is coming along #kaspa #bitcoin #powerlaw. I explain what is going on with the Kaspa price, what we can expect and how to possibly take advantage of it! Find me on X at x.com/PowerLawInvest Sign up for email updates with charts at www.powerlawinvestor.com
Power Law Investor Week #11 Dollar Cost Averaging Update - #bitcoin , #kaspa and more
Переглядів 142Місяць тому
We discuss how the weekly DCA using the power law to invest in crypto assets is coming along #kaspa #bitcoin #powerlaw. I discuss the limit orders that have hit, what we might see in price action for kaspa, what my guess is the driver for it, and price action specially in relation to bitcoin Find me on X at x.com/PowerLawInvest Sign up for email updates with charts at www.powerlawinvestor.com
Power Law Investor Week #10 DCA Update - #bitcoin , #kaspa and more
Переглядів 329Місяць тому
We discuss how the weekly DCA using the power law to invest in crypto assets is coming along #kaspa #bitcoin #powerlaw. In particular, I discuss the limit orders that have hit, what we might see in price action (and how to prepare for it) and why it might be a good idea to be cautious, but keep increasing exposure to both bitcoin and kaspa Find me on X at x.com/PowerLawInvest Sign up for email ...
Power Law Investor - Weekly Update #9
Переглядів 1042 місяці тому
We discuss how the weekly DCA using the power law to invest in crypto assets is coming along #kaspa #bitcoin #powerlaw. In particular, I discuss why it might be a good idea to be cautious and we might see lower prices which would be a good buying opportunity for both KAS and Bitcoin Find me on X at x.com/PowerLawInvest Sign up for email updates with charts at www.powerlawinvestor.com
Recent Kaspa price action - what's going on? #kaspacoin #crypto
Переглядів 3542 місяці тому
I discuss the recent price action in kaspa which has been trailing both bitcoin and the alt market as a whole and how we have dropped below the -50% power mathematical trendline. And why, looking at the data as a whole this is a good buying opportunity, although we may drop lower. Find me on X at x.com/PowerLawInvest Sign up for email updates with charts at www.powerlawinvestor.com
Update #8 -A week of crazy Kaspa price action! How can we interpret this with power law mathematics?
Переглядів 832 місяці тому
We discuss how the weekly DCA using the power law to invest in crypto assets is coming along #kaspa #bitcoin #powerlaw. In particular, I discuss the recent price action in kaspa which has been trailing both bitcoin and the alt market as a whole and why I still have mathematical and logical "faith" in the longer time horizon price action. Find me on X at x.com/PowerLawInvest Sign up for email up...
Recent Kaspa price action - nothing to worry about - just have a longer term time horizon
Переглядів 1012 місяці тому
Are you worried about the recent kaspa price action? I compare with how the power law is changing similar to bitcoin's early days and how the power law for Kaspa likely involves a complex correlation with Bitcoin. All this means is that in the short term Bitcoin price action can greatly impact the Kaspa price. #crypto #bitcoin #kaspacrypto #kaspa Find me on X at x.com/PowerLawInvest Sign up for...
Power Law Investor Week #7 Update - The current Kaspa price a buying opportunity?
Переглядів 1202 місяці тому
We discuss how the weekly DCA using the power law to invest in crypto assets is coming along #kaspa #bitcoin #powerlaw. In particular, I discuss the recent price action in kaspa which has been trailing both bitcoin and the alt market as a whole and why even though the Fed has cut rates - it may still not be alt season yet baby! Find me on X at x.com/PowerLawInvest Sign up for email updates with...
Power Law Investor - Why Invest in Crypto?
Переглядів 492 місяці тому
Today we'll discuss why I believe some crypto assets should be part of your portfolio. I'll talk about what I think the 3 main drivers are, which are global debt, digitalization, and the power law. #cryptocurrency #kaspacrypto #bitcoin #powerlaw Find me on X at x.com/PowerLawInvest Sign up for email updates with charts at www.powerlawinvestor.com
Power Law Investor Week #6 Update - Is the recent kaspa price action anything to worry about?
Переглядів 722 місяці тому
We discuss how the weekly DCA using the power law to invest in crypto assets is coming along #kaspa #bitcoin #powerlaw. In particular, I discuss the recent price action in kaspa which has been trailing both bitcoin and the alt market as a whole. Find me on X at x.com/PowerLawInvest Sign up for email updates with charts at www.powerlawinvestor.com
Power Law Investor Week #5 Update - The Fed cut, and the power law
Переглядів 583 місяці тому
Power Law Investor Week #5 Update - The Fed cut, and the power law
Power Law Investor Weekly Update #4 - Bitcoin and Kaspa - Power Law and volatility?
Переглядів 1043 місяці тому
Power Law Investor Weekly Update #4 - Bitcoin and Kaspa - Power Law and volatility?
Power Law Investor Weekly Update#3 - Bitcoin and Kaspa - Is Kaspa still following the power law?
Переглядів 1153 місяці тому
Power Law Investor Weekly Update#3 - Bitcoin and Kaspa - Is Kaspa still following the power law?
3% Weekly Returns Using the Power Law with Bitcoin and Kaspa?!
Переглядів 733 місяці тому
3% Weekly Returns Using the Power Law with Bitcoin and Kaspa?!
400%+ Mathematical Crypto Returns? Bitcoin and Kaspa - August 20, 2024
Переглядів 1124 місяці тому
400% Mathematical Crypto Returns? Bitcoin and Kaspa - August 20, 2024
Another factor to consider, some miners hold extra Kaspa and now maybe thy sale the extra Kaspa and buy bitcoin … one interesting thing that when bitcoin rise (most of the time) Kaspa is going down
i think we are going to have the full picture after kaspa has its first bullrun ! many times BTC looked like its gonna break the powerlaw before 2014 2017 etc... but after the bullruns the lines adjust and make perfect sense ! :)
Indeed time will tell!
#kaspa crypto overlord 🤙 😎 👌
krc20s are a waste of time and a detriment to kas
Excellent video. Really enjoy your breakdowns and delivery.
Much appreciated!
Good video🙏
Thank you!
Excellent work. I appreciate your analysis
Thank you. Just trying to share my thoughts with the community of like minded people!
Where can we see tour chart?
You can find the chart on my X - x.com/PowerLawInvest/status/1868912372234272960
Logical assumption. Extrapolating out, what is the price dec 2029 (lower bound/upperbound), for example. Would love to compare to my model.
You can run the math from the equations in the chart - but that far out is going to be very inaccurate because so many things will happen with the protocol and we will have cycles. So best to keep our estimates for a shorter period - 1 year at most till we have some more data
1$ next year realistic or unrealistic in your opinion?
In my opinion, realistic
@@brasileiroloko5375 Current projection, even after adjusting for the break is about $0.75 in a year's time. So $1 is easily within expectations. Really, though I think we would need to see significant movement towards that ~ at least $0.30+ by March 2025 - then we know we are headed in the right direction.
Analyze it very accurate and coherent, very good content and always a pleasure to hear what you have to say. big hug from lisbon
You can use kasusd/btcusd in trading view to get a longer time frame. You can also divide kas/btc and do a power law analysis on that as well.
Adding utility seems to deviate price away from trajectory. Hmmm
In the short term, that's probably right at least where KRC20 was concerned. In the long term, it should promote the value of the network. Like a road, the more people use it, the more valuable it becomes in transmitting value
thanks for part 2 also
Thanks for the catch!
loser
Part 2 of the video here - ua-cam.com/video/EEYPqPMnI7M/v-deo.html
video cut short
part 2 here - ua-cam.com/video/EEYPqPMnI7M/v-deo.html
Kaspa outperformed 🎉🎉
I look forward to these. Thx
Sadly...it looks like the Kaspa Devs. crashed the price by launching all those KRC20 joke coins. Every coin is going up up up now besides Kaspa. I really hope this will balance out and Kaspa price will rally before the bull run is over.
As the network utilization increases and it's used by more people for different purposes the value will go up. Just have to look at things longer term.
Thank you for your insight and analysis!
Do you see a possibility Kaspa reaching 1$ in 2025 ??
@@massimo5037 there's always a possibility but the question is what is the probability! I do think it is possible however the market would have to go a little crazy and we would have to shoot above the trend line especially the revised trend 📈 line with the KRC20 impact. So I'd say maybe 15- 20% chance of hitting $1 if I were being conservative. I wouldn't count on it, But if it happens I'll totally celebrate! 🥳🥂
Awesome! Thx!
I don't see why you believe KRC20 is 'to blame' for lower prices? How is it different from the increased interest in Kaspa that is being expected anyway when Kaspa grows? Increased usage of 'normal Kaspa' would also increase the fees, right and confront the miners with the same decision to sell or keep their Kaspa? What am I missing here?
@@perryvanderknaap4089 you're right - the difference is how big the transaction fees are and how fast they kicked in. So the market had to stabilize and it was very sudden that caused the decrease.
Btc: who are you
great
I really like your calm style of presenting your videos. As for applying the 'jump-down' of the power law.... it feels a bit like cheating, doesn't it?
@@perryvanderknaap4089 yes it can feel that way - on the other hand as we get more data and understanding we should improve our models to account for it. So rather than think of it as being cheating I think offered as being a better predictor going forward, because now the future is going to be significantly different from the past
Thank you for sharing this. Excellent analysis
Power Law calculator is fun to use🎉🎉🎉🎉
Great job. Do you have any hypothesis as to whether the upgrade to 10bps will again change the fit of the power law?
No - the overall emission rate remains the same because we get 10bps but the reward/ block is reduced by the same factor. Does that make sense?
amazing analysis, thank you for the support and understanding of the whole cake. Big hug from Lisbon
Been keeping an eye out for your update!
Why did the transaction fees spike in September? Will we have spikes like that in the future? If so, won't you have to continually revise your Kas power law curve?
🔥🔥🔥 Get em 🔥🔥🔥
Hey I really like your style of videos, please keep them coming. However I disagree with saying "Supply has been increased". Kaspa supply is static, no change from genesis at 28B coins. I do understand your analogy, but what we currently see is more miner rewards that they can either sell or hodl. Once people stop gambling or Kaspa price increases this new dinamic will most likely change. See Solana's avg bet of around 0.02 SOL
Thanks for the comment. I mean the supply of Kas to the miners (through mining rewards + transactions fees) has increased. Thanks for clarifying!
Mara is selling kas
Very good analysis - looking forward for the revised curve!
I have 90% bag in kaspa.... But I also want to see you cover nexa? Tech wise...is it good or bad? Please video
Thanks - I unfortunately don't know much about nexa, but if there is enough demand and interest I can apply a power law perspective on it at some later time!
My take on what's been going on from a cycles perspective, technical analysis starts a few minutes in: ua-cam.com/video/l4J-8dCOHf8/v-deo.html
Very good sir, moose is proud of you ;)
🩵🩵🙌🎉
Has the Bitcoin power law ever been revised? I don't like the sound of the Kaspa power law having to be revised.
Bitcoin is revised many times
Every situation is different - we are using mathematics to represent our understanding of what is happening. Since Kaspa has many similarities to bitcoin, we expect much of our understand of bitcoin to transfer over. But since Kaspa is difference we have to develop the math and understanding to understand what is happening in the best possible way. It's nothing to worry about, just things will likely take longer than expected...and then move very quickly. Nothing happens - then everything happens
Just found out of your channel Great content, keep it up! I’d like to know if your Charts are available online, or if you could open-source them
Sign up on the website and my X channel and I will soon start posting the charts there!
Cycles perspective: ua-cam.com/video/Zi6Qbz2ZVJA/v-deo.html
Isn't changing the power from 4.08 to 3.94 'cheating'? I assume the -40% and -50% trendlines would change as well as a result, thus when price reaching those low levels, the lower bars would give you a false sense of 'safety'? By the way, compliments on your presentation. It is very clear and calm. Keep up the good work!
Yes, it's important to understand that the power law as I present it is the best fit based on 'all' data. Including what is happening everyday - there is another way to look at it which is the 'dynamic' version - i.e. what is the power law based on data up to that particular date. I'll create a version of the dynamic one too when I get the chance so we can accurately compare. Clever thought - thanks!
this is great. love your content. please keep it up!
Thank you!
I am the law judge dredd😂
📈
your videos are excellent . I am a kaspa holder amongst other layer 1's. It seems like Kaspa is like owning a fancy restaurant with great food and nobody wants to eat there lol. People go where the herd goes and right now the herd is not eating at Kaspa's restaurant :(
got my sub
Thanks a lot