Hello, thx for your work. 1-For you, what would be an invalidation of the kaspa power law trend (excluding waiting one year the R² go under 0.85)? 2-can you make a video of kas/btc. Does it follow a power law?
I would say that we see the invalidation if we #1) See values that are very high or very low (but everyone wants high values, it's only the lower ones we worry about!) compared to the trend. So if we start seeing values like $0.05 or $0.5 for example then there would be some cause for concern. #2) We see that exponent which is ~4 right now to below 3.5 and consistently drift down.#3) we see the price just plateau for an extended period of time - so if we dont' see a doubling of the Kas value (at least!) in the next 4-6 months, than that starts telling us that likely the power law was accurately describing the situation in the past, but not anymore - something has changed. I hope that's helpful! I did some work on KAS/BTC earlier - will try and put up a video on that if there is sufficient interest
Does the power law curve fit the emission/release schedule? I would think the price curve would be derived solely from that. Also, there is missing price data from the first 7 months of the network. Could that data affect the slope and exponent? I was thinking a better fit could be derived from the supply curve and applied to the price curve. Although the r2 seems pretty convincing as it. Thanks for the great work man.
@@wes_tone_improves_the_process there may be some more complex relationship that fits the emission schedule - but the power law is derived straight from just price and time data - so simple and clean which is why I like it! As for the early days - yes that missing data would influence the curve but you hit the nail on the head the r2 data is pretty solid and as we get more data it matters less and less, although still could be significant!
@@PowerLawInvestor Thanks. Can you publish the power law of addresses and hash rate? I thought I'd heard that they also follow power law. Also, can you recommend a program where I can play with this data and make my own power law charts?
@@wes_tone_improves_the_process Your best bet is to use Python - it's tricky to do it in Trading view - although you'll need some experience in programming. Probably chatGPT could help out also if you don't have that much experience in writing code yourself!
Take a look at NEAR protocol for example. That should give you an idea. It's also a matter of r2 - ETH for example has an r2 in the log log space using a linear regression of ~0.73. So it still has *some* power law properties, just not as much as BTC or KAS. Hope this helps!
Hello, thx for your work.
1-For you, what would be an invalidation of the kaspa power law trend (excluding waiting one year the R² go under 0.85)?
2-can you make a video of kas/btc. Does it follow a power law?
I would say that we see the invalidation if we #1) See values that are very high or very low (but everyone wants high values, it's only the lower ones we worry about!) compared to the trend. So if we start seeing values like $0.05 or $0.5 for example then there would be some cause for concern. #2) We see that exponent which is ~4 right now to below 3.5 and consistently drift down.#3) we see the price just plateau for an extended period of time - so if we dont' see a doubling of the Kas value (at least!) in the next 4-6 months, than that starts telling us that likely the power law was accurately describing the situation in the past, but not anymore - something has changed.
I hope that's helpful!
I did some work on KAS/BTC earlier - will try and put up a video on that if there is sufficient interest
KAS
Does the power law curve fit the emission/release schedule? I would think the price curve would be derived solely from that.
Also, there is missing price data from the first 7 months of the network. Could that data affect the slope and exponent? I was thinking a better fit could be derived from the supply curve and applied to the price curve. Although the r2 seems pretty convincing as it.
Thanks for the great work man.
@@wes_tone_improves_the_process there may be some more complex relationship that fits the emission schedule - but the power law is derived straight from just price and time data - so simple and clean which is why I like it!
As for the early days - yes that missing data would influence the curve but you hit the nail on the head the r2 data is pretty solid and as we get more data it matters less and less, although still could be significant!
@@PowerLawInvestor Thanks. Can you publish the power law of addresses and hash rate? I thought I'd heard that they also follow power law.
Also, can you recommend a program where I can play with this data and make my own power law charts?
@@wes_tone_improves_the_process Your best bet is to use Python - it's tricky to do it in Trading view - although you'll need some experience in programming. Probably chatGPT could help out also if you don't have that much experience in writing code yourself!
Hey I have a question. How would the power law graph look like for coins that dont follow it? For example eth or ada. Thanks
Take a look at NEAR protocol for example. That should give you an idea. It's also a matter of r2 - ETH for example has an r2 in the log log space using a linear regression of ~0.73. So it still has *some* power law properties, just not as much as BTC or KAS. Hope this helps!