Відео

Utter twaddle from a cluelss old man

Happy Thanksgiving David!

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Good summary of the world today. I think the situation in Iran is also about personal safety concerns by key leaders in Iran. Israel has changed the nature of war back to a very personal aggression. Decapitation of Hazbollah was a warning to Iran and others. The leadership is no longer safe. In WWI the shouts of hang the Kaiser were ignored. Napoleon was allowed to live. We are back to classical warfare of Roman and medieval times.

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Good Analysis! Definitely thought through, which is rare these days.

Hellow Sir....

NEW Update at 0112 hrs CET on Sunday: US Authorities look to have acted effectively to limit SVB contagion. Seems like the authorities have acted to : 1. Stop further deposit flight and losses (money back guarantee.) 2. Provide one year loans = at par of Repemtion value of qualifying collateralised (eg bond) asset. This cuts out the fear of big loss writ offs if bond holdings currently held to maturity were marked to market - see fig below. Share holders etc are appropriately not protected. This is clever coz it should stop deposit flight while at same time ensuring asset values stable which In turn cuts deposit flight and diminishes spectre of bonds incurring losses if they had to be sold to pay off depositors..

Investments and deposits are clearly differentiated between in this piece. Deposits sit on liability side of bank balance sheet and investment on the asset side. It is the mismatch between price, maturity and qaulity of each which causes generic bank runs and collapses. This is also true in SVB case. Details May differ a bit. But the asset v liability (deposit v investments) was the subject of first 2 parts of this short video.

Thanks for comments mike. We differ on inflation on interest rates . Credit issues May provoke tightening in monetary conditions that replace some of need to raise rates in real terms. Second, change in relation between job opening, employment and wage price spiral - Waller (fed) theory allow smoother adjustment.

Thank s mike

I would prefer a distinction between "investment " and "deposits " in the analysis of SVB. The key is will $200bill be enough to trigger a chain reaction. I tend to agree that there is enough cover for the major banks. I am not sure that BIS ratios apply to banks below the top 12 or so in the USA. The follow on to VC Fund valuations is new. We will have to watch that.

The Scheldt and Doel are of course west of Antwerp not Amsterdam. Ooops. I have flu !

Why CRUDE OIL falling? Can we buy on dips

This is a great deep dive and overview of the macro landscape on many key factors. Thank you for taking the time to share your perspectives and insights! I agree oil stocks are better values, but smaller E&P or offshore or service providers seem the best bet, as the oil majors have windfall profit tax bullseyes placed ont hem by the governments looking for tax revenues and to appease the green/ESG crowds who want blood and aren't really doing the math around the energy transition and how long it will take and how much money and mining and infrastructure build out it will take to accomplish what they say they want. I agree greener and renewable is better, but there are real issues on many levels with the technology we are using en masse right now and it's productive capacity and longevity, actual costs now that deglobalization is playing out (cheap labor and cheap dirty mining and cheap dirty manufacturing going away or at least being greatly reduced over time)

A very well articulated analysis. Thanks!

Been stalking BOIL and UNG. Thank you kind sir

Good info, lots to consider. I am long natgas Henry hub prices and European nstgas too in various way, smallish position with high asymmentry

Going long natural gas. Thanks for the analysis!

Great info! Wishing your channel alot of success! I know it’s impossible to guess when the market will rebound but if you had to guess would it be before the summer or after?

I am long on nat gas since 4.1 and i am runing out of room for manoeuvre. Yesterday (fryday 17.02.2023) it went down to 2.212, i went in to 49% margin.... i went nuts, dont know where this will stop coz i know it wants to go up so so so so badly but its like its suppresed or something. I dont want to hedge it and go short coz it can snap at any moment. If i will recover my longs, i will never open a position on Nat Gas ever again in my life. And when i hear people say 1.5 1.6 1.7 i go berserk i even heard 0.5... The only reason i see it going so low its coz of the 24 feb (1 year celebration from the war) so that the US is subsidising MM bears in order to hurt Russia, thats the only logical answer i can come up with. If you look at the chart it was overs sold on day time frame for 80% of feb and then it went lower. Hope you are wright and it gose up, the very least back to 2.35 where i got to big positions so i can close them 0 or min profit, f it i will accept to close those 2 even at 2.3 - 2.31 with a small loss. This is the most crazy market i have ever oppend a position on. All the best.

Good to hear some fundamentals rather than only technical analysis which sometimes makes little sense in this particular asset.

A brilliant call last year to short it ! I did too but sold too quickly :(

Oil tanker in Thailand blew up Jan 18th

Thanks for preparing and presenting this. Great to get a more long term outlook..

Oil and gas continued to crash and burn, no let up in sight. Not even geopolitics is of any concern to them. Gold same, crash and burn.

Just jumped in today in #Boil, i will add to my position next week

The widow maker Nat Gas, my favorite ♥️

China will get billions of barrels from Russia and Iran. India same only the western countries will go green. The transfer of wealth to the Eastern hemi will start wwlll

The UK tank should be Challeger. I slippec up there. Thank for carching it

Thank you David

I agree that this initial package will not be decisive, but it will set a precedent which can be built upon, or as you said, might lead to "ripple effects." Also, I thought the name of the British main battle tank was Challenger rather than Chieftain?

Even if several other nations (the UK for instance) threw in a few tanks and troop-carriers, the numbers will be tiny compared with Ukrainian needs. Plus, if you have vehicles from all over - it's unlikely they could be well-maintained; problems of mechanics and spare parts; or have Ukrainian troops trained on them. Tanks aren't like cars - if you can drive an old VW, you can also drive a Rolls-Royce. The single Patriot missile system promised by the US isn't even the most recent version (are you kidding? Permit possible capture or larceny?); plus, its success rate is not promising. Nothing for Putin to worry about there. The Patriot gift is a rhetorical flourish, not serious help.

Chieftain or Challenger?

I beleive you made a good description of the situation thanks, may i ask what is your military background?

Give Ukraine 300 to 500 ATACMS it would be devastating to Russia. You are right, that the longer this war drags on the more risk we are incurring.

🌈 ρяσмσѕм

Russia will prevail.. talk sense.. don't waste your last year's deceiving people 👍

Russia will just simple be north Korea more impoverished

Russia will just simple be north Korean more impoverished

A sobering analysis as always backed by a masterful understanding of the man and the data.

Thank you for your honest observation.

Democrats: We can’t allow the people to use Democracy to vote us out. That would be a HUGE threat to Democracy!

So what you are saying is, "turn out the lights, the party's over"? 😅

Masterful presentation of a complex topic - will definitely need to watch more than once.

Can you give me your gmail id sir. I eant to study Quantum Economics. Can you tell me where this course is conducting