Here are the timestamps. Please check out our sponsors to support this podcast. 0:00 - Introduction & sponsor mentions: - Audible: audible.com/lex to get $9.95 a month for 6 months - Tryolabs: tryolabs.com/lex - Blinkist: blinkist.com/lex and use code LEX to get 25% off premium - Athletic Greens: athleticgreens.com/lex and use code LEX to get 1 month of fish oil 2:28 - WallStreetBets and GameStop saga 16:41 - Evil shorting and chill shorting 18:47 - Hedge funds 24:20 - Vlad 31:16 - Numerai 58:32 - Futre of AI in stock trading 1:04:11 - Numerai data 1:07:53 - Is stock trading gambling or investing? 1:11:48 - What is money? 1:15:05 - Cryptocurrency 1:18:22 - Dogecoin 1:22:52 - Advice for startups 1:38:43 - Book recommendations 1:40:45 - Advice for young people 1:44:46 - Meaning of life
I think he's expanding knowledge to the laymen, reminding people that love is a universal term and that cooperation and competition need not be enemies. Low key he's leading us forward one conversation at a time.
The idea behind this quote keeps me sane at work everyday 😅 "When you wake up in the morning, tell yourself: The people I deal with today will be meddling, ungrateful, arrogant, dishonest, jealous, and surly. They are like this because they can’t tell good from evil.[...]And so none of them can hurt me. No one can implicate me with ugliness"
Lex, thank you for letting me enjoy some intelligent conversation. It’s becoming a rare commodity these days in most circles. I really enjoy your show 👍🏼
I think the super bowl is today. A bunch of decorations in the grocery store about it. I'm watching Lex. For all I know the game is going on now. Who cares? Lex is better.
Hey Lex, Just wanted to say that your podcasts are amazing and have totally changed my way of thinking and my perspective towards todays world. Keep them coming.
In my humble opinion, Joe lost touch with the ground a while back. It's a gradual process. What he has still going for him is his reputation and his reach. Empires come and go.
This sort of crowd sourced knowledge helped me modify a 1999 Honda Civic Si into a high-dollar exotic sports car killer in the early 00s. I was a member of an online forum called "Club SI" composed mostly of young street racers back then. The forum was a pure meritocracy - what peer-reviewed academic journals WISH they could be. If anyone posted BS or spam, they were quickly debunked and moderated off the board by the crowd. Long story short, after a couple of years of tinkering, I had built a supercharged 240hp front wheel drive Civic SI with a tiny 1.6 liter 4 cylinder engine that rode on $4000 shocks, R-Compound tires, suspension modifications and weight savings that made her an absolute terror at the track. No stock sports car in the world could beat her at autocross, and only heavily modified Corvettes, (and Miatas, lol) driven by SCCA national autocross champions were faster around the Autocross track at California Speedway in Fontana - and I have the official race results to prove it. That car was so fast at both a Porsche Club of America event at El Toro Air Force Base and an Acura NSX Autocross at Hollywood park that I was banned from future events by BOTH clubs. The point is, there's no way I could have built that little Honda Civic to perform at such a high level without a decentralized, passionate online community as a source of knowledge. That was 20 years ago, so yea - I have no doubt Reddit and the Wall Street Bets sub are terrorizing Wall Street the way I used to terrorize Porsche owners in my little Honda Civic. A lot of hedge fund managers drive Porches, hahahaha! Power to the people! =)
Anyone who actually trades for a living can see this wasn't 'just' /wsb. There is clearly a very deep pocketed group who have perfected an algo that ramps stocks unnaturally and causes these situations. Originally it was airlines and cruise lines, then OSTK, then JKS, then TSLA. NIO did it too. It's a 11-13 day ramp. I encourage people to dig deeper. /wsb isn't trading 250k shares per minute at 7am EST pre market.
Just say you know nothing about markets man, TSLA was not run up by a group of people, its literally the best company in the world and people are investing in the future
@@owenwilliams1324 I've often wondered when an algo that factors public sentiment would come to market, *if* bots could be filtered and algo that captures and amplifies public sentiment would make sense - i wouldn't be surprised if an algo of this nature existed already. BTW I am not a trader.
Lex, I'm so glad you talked about Numerai! Numerai is extremely interesting, and as far as crowdsourced hedgefund, Numerai is the model to go. Thank you
16:10 a few lessons from optimization theory for capturing value: 1. open-ended optimization - when your objective is to discover novelty (no objective) 2. population-based optimization - when your objective is hard to describe 3. gradient-based optimization - when your objective is differentiable you can have confidence in "discovering the next thing" by placing your confidence in optimization theory if you don't immediately have sufficient evidence
@@domco35 Money is just a store of value. Get rid of Money and something else will just take its place. Be it time, or skill set, or moose or physical attractiveness or.... My mate thinks we should switch to kilowatt hours in stead of money and I can't for the life of me get him to understand that its the same damn thing! Just a different medium. EDIT: I commented this before the podcast reached the point in which they discuss money. Well, I don't know about in the US and such places but British currency actually states on the note "I promise to pay the bearer". The physical cash is a symbol of what used to be gold stores. Now its just an agreed upon consensus of value. Be it an individuals influence (instagram models and youtube influences for example), be it time spent/invested/lost, be it a special skill set that is desirable; physical cash is just an crystallized store of this agreed upon value that is standardized and easily exchanged. Don't know why I felt the need to share that haha I may just post it as its own actual comment too
@@AngryOscillator But value of anything is relative.. If we all had same goal, to move forward as a civilization, everybody would focus just on what he is good at. However in these days, most of our civilisation's mental and physical power goes to playing stupid games around money. When you start thinking first principles and looking at least into 100 years, not 5, with everything what is going on Earth, every action around money is a waste. Not moving us anywhere.
@@AngryOscillator Praising one unit over real relative value of things is actually a problem, you doesn't need to have one. Looking into long run, it did bring more problems then solutions.
Lex started listening to you at the start of the pandemic. You have projected yourself as not only an intellect but also an individual who is not in love with himself. Your honesty on the podcasts is refreshing. Thank you for exposing the breadth of your spirit.
They've covered so much practical and philosophical aspects of the relationship between crowdsourced knowledge, group behaviour, AI, crypto and the stock market (backbone of capitalism) in the first half of the podcast, it's like going through a crash course of human civilization in the information age.
First time I’ve listened to Lex and it was seriously one of the most fascinating interviews I’ve heard in a long time. Lex is an amazing interviewer and I’m hooked.
Within the last year, I've been introduced to the likes of Tim Pool, Michael Malice, Luke Rudkowski, Eric July, and you. In a strange way, 2020 was a blessing.
I met a Numerai scientist at an ICLR after party a few years back. One of my colleagues couldn't stop laughing at the idea of essentially monetizing (what seems like) grad student descent. It's a brilliant idea though, and their execution + philosophy is solid. I do believe there are limitations to staking as a proxy metric for confidence. It assumes rationality in the users / competitors. The reason wallstreetbets is dangerous is because they are not rational in the market. Some redditors could disrupt Numerai's hedge fund by simply staking random / bad predictions (eg; loose money on purpose) and poisoning the ensemble model that pilots the fund for enough eras to bankrupt it. The WSB $GME event proved how far people will go to financially suicide bomb a target for reddit flair and lols. I think there is legitimate concern that identifying and exploiting rationality assumptions for quick profits (or for self promotion --which can be monetized to profit) will become a real trend.
Amazing series Lex, Honestly It's the overall remunerative nature of the stocks market that drive people into it, but 80% of newbies fail trying to replace years of proven strategies and expertise with luck and guessing. GET INFORMED out here only the experienced profit. I saw a change in my affairs when I went about it with properly it's been very rewarding ever since.
Damn!! I needed this, everyday I try different methods and strategies from videos I watch online I can't seem to generate a profit for myself instead my losses keep piling up. Do tell. Do tell, what changed for you? How have you been making money? I need a better way to trade.
I find people get surprised when I share how easily I manage my stock portfolio and accounts, they think tirelessly at it. Truth is I leave the numbers and all my trade affairs to Licensed pro analyst Mr Noud mika, 4 years ago in 2017 when I started investing in stock&bond I partnered with a Financial advisor/Portfolio manager Mr Noud mika, he bought some stocks that he knew would yield valuable profits and he also forecasted that these companies will triple their net-worth in a space of 4 years.I did not regret taking he's advice because we made over $860k in raw profits over the years.I started with $*0k back then. Since then his been handling all my trades for me
You make it sound easy losing money to something you could prevent hurts like hell. I've been trading for a while and coming across licensed pros from a good source like this isn't easy you know. Some rich folks hide the source of the success. I won't pass up the opportunity, Is Mr Mika available to new investors? How can I contact him?
shortselling - its all a scam basically - if you find that a company is fraudulent - you are supposed to inform the police immediately and not make bets
@@valireklaam If you look at the history of short selling, you will see that the authorities almost never do anything when people report that publicly traded companies are involved in fraud. Because of this, there have been short sellers that have done great good for public markets by uncovering fraud that would have gone on for many years if it wasn’t for them. They are basically investigative journalists that put their money where their mouth is.
Hey Lex (Dr. Fridman), First and foremost thank you for continuing with the podcast despite all thats on your plate, I think i can speak for the collective when I say it has been a tremendous asset to your fellow apes (I am slightly more smooth brained than your wonderful-guest and of course yourself). I was wondering if you could make a sort of split interview where you interview yourself using the same range of questions you approach your guests with? but respond to the questions as if they were asked by someone else.( really play into the duality) I think this will help me(us) understand how you became you. What 'colours' where available to you from birth (genetics, upbringing, surrounding environment) and which 'colours' did you have to fight/work to see for all their glory. I love the painting you're making...my greatest qualm is that I didn't get to see the canvas begin to morph into where it is now. SUMMARY FOR MODERATE SMOOTH BRAINED PEERS: I cant really explain why (smooth brain, look above) but this "interview" with yourself may merge our individual journey with your own journey of understanding humanity, both in its heights of glory and in its greatest depths of despair. REALLY SHORT SUMMARY FOR MY SUPER DUPER SMOOTH BRAINED HOMIES: Toss an extra seat in the back for me...Im coming on this journey (NO MATTER WHAT) , it would make my trip more comfy ...If you wont toss the seat in Im gonna strap on some rollerblades and hold on to your bummer.
Glad to know about Richard. It felt like listening to my mental dopperganger. I subscribed to his website immediately. I wish I could be surrounded by like-minded individuals like him.
Very much enjoy the conversation in every podcast you've ever done and continue to learn from you and your guests. Thank you for changing my life in many ways.
Hi, Lex! Did you forget to ask Richard about the books' reading this time? It is quite an important part of the discussion, I always paying attention to:) Best regards!
Have to sleep now, but will be listenning to this with my Coffee in the morning, sounds super interesting Lex, please keep doing what you're doing! ;-)
Very exciting interview. Thank you. My amateur comments: 1. Super fun reads on corning the market and short squeezes: “Confessions of a Stock Operator” by Lefevre, and “Business Adventures” by Brooks: Chapter titled “The Last Great Corner”-about how the Wall Street crowd got the stock symbol wrong and then shorted the wrong stock (!) and how the target company founder fought back. 2. If someone can beat the market why don’t they end up owning the market, and on the other extreme, if the market is efficient then how does anyone make any money? 3. A complex system like the weather does not change (much) because of our understanding of it; a complex system like the stock market does change as we use our understanding to buy and sell stock. Why does an initial advantage disappear and never reappear? 4. My simplistic investing method shared: a) know your own emotional self before investing-are you a gambler, a collector, risk adverse, saver, etc.; b) keep costs as low as possible (trading, funds, and taxes); and c) if you make money on a trade move your profit to a long term investment such as Berkshire or a low cost index fund-and never trade those funds. Good luck! Thank you. William L. Ramseyer
I think it would be a great idea if Lex interviewed Edward Snowden and have him speak on the technical/coding side of things, since in most of his interviews he gets questioned more about his story and the political implications of his findings. That would be an interesting conversation.
1:45:00 Lex thinks much deeper about this than Richard, but he's right that the question is flawed itself. Not a big fan of traders, especially those involved in hedgefunds, but interesting interview nevertheless.
@1:42:00 Lex's perspective on that hit too close to home :D What he's describing as something too avoid is my ideal of a life. I'm 100% on Richard Craib's side.
I have looked into this and have many unanswered questions and something feels off: 1. Why are you keeping the data a secret. Why can’t your columns have meaningful headers 2. Why is a crypto coin necessary, why can’t people just stake cash, if they loose money they don’t loose to you “the house” they loose to whomever bought in the other end in the market. Further, it is not decentralized, you are running this hedge fund and processing the predictions. 3. Why can’t You share the hedge funds performance... does this even work?
I think he explains in the podcast that the database they get some of the data from is a private paid for access database that is very expensive. As part of the terms of use they can't just publish it publicly so they have to obfuscate it and it becomes just another machine learning problem.
This project is absolutely legit. The people behind it are interested in the data science and machine learning components of it that’s why they are building it. It’s not a scam to take your money.
@@ethertoangle8133 It's legit but the hedge fund/payout system is absolutely not "democratic/open/...", data scientists get paid not in terms of profit that the hedge fund made but instead tokens and non data scientists can't stake tokens on other peoples models which should seem straightforward to allow and allow the token to gain traction and allow regular people to use the best models in the world
@@ethertoangle8133 Define legit. Tricking data scientists into creating your stock market bot in such a way that the code is useless to them, and makes you god king, seems grimey.
I've been watching some courses on the stock market. One thing I'm still not clear on is how quickly I can buy, and then resell shares? I know it has to go through the clearing house and a bit about that system, so how do I take advantage of a rapid spike, or dip, in share prices?
You can buy and sell in real time. The trades take 2 days to settle so all it means is that you'd have to wait 2 days if you wanted to withdraw cash from your account. Otherwise you don't have to wait to reinvest your funds.
Appreciate the detailed breakdown! A bit off-topic, but I wanted to ask: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). Could you explain how to move them to Binance?
Being real vs being polite/professional looks like a tradeoff (I might not be using word semantics correctly). On one corner you don't have hypocrisy, but you can really hurt people, specially when your real self is full of crap. On the other corner you don't hurt people, but can be a hypocrite.
Had to pause this after 10min. This has so far sounded like a very bad representation of what the outcome really was. The hedge funds as a whole have survived this short squeeze. As for most of the average retail investors however, they are the ones that in the end got screwed. It's far from being the David and Goliath story people think it was.
I don’t understand what you mean. If you have time, maybe you could explain this. Sorry, I dont know a lot about the market-econ-trading. Did you simply mean that obviously the hedge funds survived it no matter what, but now the game is outed..? Thanks in advance, greetings.
@@dbcoco Most of the (uneducated) retail investors who were probably investing their hard earned savings would have been late into this trade. They would have picked up GME (and others) when they were way over valued. The FOMO would have brought most of them undone. The hedge funds have billions of dollars at their disposal and are able to use it to maneuver their way out of any real trouble.
Wow. The stock market crowd are just awful in the comments section 🤨 Amazing how a different topic of conversation and guest showcases and entirely different audience.
Lex, can you please interview Sergey Guriev - one of the best economists in the world. He's had some interviews recently but nobody asks the deep questions
(Self-Plug), I had an incredible chance to interview Richard a while ago as well, here's my interview with him, if you'd like to hear from another source about the Numerai story: ua-cam.com/video/H0NfDIDcu84/v-deo.html I've been trying really hard to get Lex on my podcast, hopefully, one day he'll say yes. 🙏
In 1972, I was a draft dodger during the Vietnam War. One of the best decisions I've ever made. During that time, I lived in Beautiful Downtown Burbank, and it was while there was still the Golden Mall, where they closed off a large part of San Fernando Road going through Downtown Burbank, making it pedestrian. There used to be Nazis who would come to the Golden Mall and stand there presenting their literature a la Jehovah's Witnesses, in full Nazi uniforms.They weren't preaching anything, just at parade rest holding literature. And I intuitively understood that my freedom depended on allowing their freedom to be there to a certain extent. I don't agree with them, I grew up knowing two families - one family friends, the other neighbors - who the adults had numbers tattooed on their arms. But like I said, I intuitively understood that if you want freedom, you must give freedom. If they start acting out on their beliefs with violence, all bets are off. But I can't, and I shouldn't want to control what is going on in their heads, because that is very fascist. Ultimately, there is no difference between a right wing dictatorship and a left wing dictatorship, both are control freaks... I worked on the only day of television that Marlon Brando did, on Roots 2. He got a million dollars for that one day's work. It was the reenactment of Alex Haley's Playboy interview with the head of the American Nazi Party, George Lincoln Rockwell, with Brando in that role. Brando was friendly enough, saying hi to me up on the green (the suspended scaffolding around the top of the set to light the set). What I thought was interesting was that Brando didn't bother learning his dialog. Up on the green with me were guys with idiot cards that contained the dialog. And it explained why Brando had the tendency of looking up as if he was thinking about what to say. But he was reading his dialog on those idiot cards. Alex Haley had made the appointment for the interview with Rockwell, without mentioning that he was black. The scene is how that interview played out...
The "old school" telephone to the left of Lex in the background seems lost whilst being near 2 of the most influential pathfinders of Artificial Intelligence in the modern world.
@@vikingmma no date but we can assume it’s after June since Charles has said that Rogan is like the ultimate boss level so he would be the last podcast on the circuit during the Goguen phase.
But we DO know why RH haulted buying: the DTCC required them to post 3 bi in collateral. What IS shady, however, is that this was the alternative RH found to stop their collateral requirements from continuing to go up. And also how the requirements dropped to less than 750 million after RH haulted buying on their app. How are these requirements numbers even calculated by the DTCC? THAT'S shady.
Well, Wall Street & the Federal Government rescued their constituents, which were the (extreme sarcasm here) poor innocent short sellers & the Hedge Funds who “short sell” & deliberately destroy companies ordinary Americans work for.
@@luizscheuer670 - I don’t think switching to Crypto would solve the problem of political and economic corruption coupled with “Crony Capitalism” where both conspire to protect the rich & powerful against the poor & powerless.
@@TraditionalAnglican you are right, but at least we will get to see a world in which central, govenrmental institutions have way less power to play with our economy and therefore well-being. The future belongs to technology, not to the FED, SEC and their friends.
59:40 I've been thinking about system that looks at the market and anticipates what would happen if X action occurred, then if the outcome is a profit opportunity, manipulate the market into fulfilling it. Like a way more advanced version of GME attack on small scales
If the power shuts down what happens to the commercial value of the coin? Will the flip of the switch from off to on work? I like the short squeeze ideas but the coins make me uneasy as an investment idea.
That buffet quote rhymes with a historical one. When someone inquired why they put their fields in the hands of the Helots, and did not take care of them themselves, he said, "It was by not taking care of the fields, but of ourselves, that we acquired those fields." Anaxandridas of Sparta Lindy
That little voice that is morality is called your soul! Your feelings and emotions are your heart! And your intellect and belief are your mind! And those three Internal aspects make up Individualism after we develop our sense of self As a young adult
1:01:48 I believe some trading algorithms already do that, when trump tweeted he got covid in the middle of the night, there was massive market activity
Here are the timestamps. Please check out our sponsors to support this podcast.
0:00 - Introduction & sponsor mentions:
- Audible: audible.com/lex to get $9.95 a month for 6 months
- Tryolabs: tryolabs.com/lex
- Blinkist: blinkist.com/lex and use code LEX to get 25% off premium
- Athletic Greens: athleticgreens.com/lex and use code LEX to get 1 month of fish oil
2:28 - WallStreetBets and GameStop saga
16:41 - Evil shorting and chill shorting
18:47 - Hedge funds
24:20 - Vlad
31:16 - Numerai
58:32 - Futre of AI in stock trading
1:04:11 - Numerai data
1:07:53 - Is stock trading gambling or investing?
1:11:48 - What is money?
1:15:05 - Cryptocurrency
1:18:22 - Dogecoin
1:22:52 - Advice for startups
1:38:43 - Book recommendations
1:40:45 - Advice for young people
1:44:46 - Meaning of life
Noice
Lex you need “LFClips”
Just a thought my friend.
Thank you for the content.
ty!
Lex, if you see this, you should get prof. David Malan from Harvard University on the podcast!
1 mil here we go
Lex is quickly becoming a legendary podcaster.
Now Rogan's sold out to Spotify, is Lex the King of podcast? Plot Twist! (America would become super chill)
Best in the game when its all said and done. Hes low-key taking over all my Rogan airtime (since he moved over to Spotify)
I think he's expanding knowledge to the laymen, reminding people that love is a universal term and that cooperation and competition need not be enemies. Low key he's leading us forward one conversation at a time.
Favorite podcast after JRE.
Hes like the captain underpants story of joe roganeers
Lex, please never stop this podcast. It is my all time favorite.
Im gonna be selfish and completely agree. Lex is now burdened to do this podcast for eternity lol
And please don’t move it off youtube !
You should invite Nassim Nicholas Taleb to your Podcast. Would definitely make for one hell of a conversation !
Yes!!
Disagree. It would be a terrible “conversation”. See ... Taleb don’t have any conversation... he just talks.
Or Naval R.
@chip thomas haha it’s kinda true. Totally agree. Good point.
Absolutely!
Lex... ever since Joe Rogan passed away, I've found you to be of great comfort. I hear Joe's voice from time to time, but you've become my main bacon.
Yeah, lex sure is tasty. Sad to hear about Joe passing away though. Rip
Man, saddened to hear about Joe. RIP in pieces
bs
@@kingenidjingeln it's a meme
thanks spotify..
Lex Fridman podcast bingo:
- “Emergent behavior”
- “Love”
- “Philosophically speaking”
"first principles thinking"
"i know this is a really dumb question"
Lex moving the hedgehog into the frame at the beginning lol
this shows me that there is such a lovely child still in him.
Maybe hedgehog is joke on "hedgefunds"
❤️
Is it just me or the hedgehog actually looks really pissed?
adorable :3
This podcast and marcus aurelius is one of the few things keeping me going
The idea behind this quote keeps me sane at work everyday 😅
"When you wake up in the morning, tell yourself: The people I deal with today will be meddling, ungrateful, arrogant, dishonest, jealous, and surly. They are like this because they can’t tell good from evil.[...]And so none of them can hurt me. No one can implicate me with ugliness"
@@vaclavcervinka65 Dude is on Tic Toc. Killer.
Sam Harris, Jordan Peterson, Alan Watts and Ram Dass are good too if you're looking for something new
This is the most silicon valley comment I think I've ever seen.
Check out Michael Sugrue lecture on Marcus Aurelius, guy is a legend
I study at the University of Cape Town, and it's really cool to see someone who studied where I study be this interesting on my favourite podcast.
Capetown is #awsome
This is one of my favorite conversations you've had, and I find myself loving them all. Great guest/topic and great questions!
Lex! I'm here to remind you stop reading comments 🤣!!!
Lex, thank you for letting me enjoy some intelligent conversation. It’s becoming a rare commodity these days in most circles. I really enjoy your show 👍🏼
I think the super bowl is today. A bunch of decorations in the grocery store about it.
I'm watching Lex. For all I know the game is going on now. Who cares? Lex is better.
@@blunty6feetunder Maybe it was super plate I don't remember.
Superb Owl 🦉
You mentioning it makes it look like you still do care about it maybe little 😜
Hey Lex, Just wanted to say that your podcasts are amazing and have totally changed my way of thinking and my perspective towards todays world. Keep them coming.
"If you don't know what Reddit is..." you're probably not on UA-cam watching Lex Fridman podcasts.
I saw a comment thread with a 70 year old, a 60 year old, and two 50 year olds
I've started to enjoy this podcast a lil bit more than JRE.🤷🏼♂️
Thank you 😊
In my humble opinion, Joe lost touch with the ground a while back. It's a gradual process. What he has still going for him is his reputation and his reach. Empires come and go.
@@haraldtopfer5732 ...in a rich mans world.
He didnt even know Elon's Rockets are landing after they gone up....
I still like JRE but only when he has guests that are in comedy or fighting. Lex is a way better conversationalist with intellectuals or businessmen.
This sort of crowd sourced knowledge helped me modify a 1999 Honda Civic Si into a high-dollar exotic sports car killer in the early 00s. I was a member of an online forum called "Club SI" composed mostly of young street racers back then. The forum was a pure meritocracy - what peer-reviewed academic journals WISH they could be. If anyone posted BS or spam, they were quickly debunked and moderated off the board by the crowd. Long story short, after a couple of years of tinkering, I had built a supercharged 240hp front wheel drive Civic SI with a tiny 1.6 liter 4 cylinder engine that rode on $4000 shocks, R-Compound tires, suspension modifications and weight savings that made her an absolute terror at the track. No stock sports car in the world could beat her at autocross, and only heavily modified Corvettes, (and Miatas, lol) driven by SCCA national autocross champions were faster around the Autocross track at California Speedway in Fontana - and I have the official race results to prove it. That car was so fast at both a Porsche Club of America event at El Toro Air Force Base and an Acura NSX Autocross at Hollywood park that I was banned from future events by BOTH clubs. The point is, there's no way I could have built that little Honda Civic to perform at such a high level without a decentralized, passionate online community as a source of knowledge. That was 20 years ago, so yea - I have no doubt Reddit and the Wall Street Bets sub are terrorizing Wall Street the way I used to terrorize Porsche owners in my little Honda Civic. A lot of hedge fund managers drive Porches, hahahaha! Power to the people! =)
sickening
Anyone who actually trades for a living can see this wasn't 'just' /wsb. There is clearly a very deep pocketed group who have perfected an algo that ramps stocks unnaturally and causes these situations. Originally it was airlines and cruise lines, then OSTK, then JKS, then TSLA. NIO did it too. It's a 11-13 day ramp. I encourage people to dig deeper. /wsb isn't trading 250k shares per minute at 7am EST pre market.
Just say you know nothing about markets man, TSLA was not run up by a group of people, its literally the best company in the world and people are investing in the future
@@never3b99 The move on the daily in TSLA from 8/11 to 8/31 was the same algo that did GME, and the symbols I mentioned above
you might be onto something
@@owenwilliams1324 I've often wondered when an algo that factors public sentiment would come to market, *if* bots could be filtered and algo that captures and amplifies public sentiment would make sense - i wouldn't be surprised if an algo of this nature existed already. BTW I am not a trader.
@@owenwilliams1324 Interesting. Do you know who runs that algo?
Lex, I'm so glad you talked about Numerai! Numerai is extremely interesting, and as far as crowdsourced hedgefund, Numerai is the model to go. Thank you
16:10 a few lessons from optimization theory for capturing value:
1. open-ended optimization - when your objective is to discover novelty (no objective)
2. population-based optimization - when your objective is hard to describe
3. gradient-based optimization - when your objective is differentiable
you can have confidence in "discovering the next thing" by placing your confidence in optimization theory if you don't immediately have sufficient evidence
This was easily one of the best conversations I’ve heard
Why focus on the stock market when we can just build everyone a money printer.
why waste any energy on money, when we could completely get rid of money as a concept..
@@domco35 Money is just a store of value. Get rid of Money and something else will just take its place. Be it time, or skill set, or moose or physical attractiveness or....
My mate thinks we should switch to kilowatt hours in stead of money and I can't for the life of me get him to understand that its the same damn thing! Just a different medium.
EDIT: I commented this before the podcast reached the point in which they discuss money. Well, I don't know about in the US and such places but British currency actually states on the note "I promise to pay the bearer". The physical cash is a symbol of what used to be gold stores. Now its just an agreed upon consensus of value. Be it an individuals influence (instagram models and youtube influences for example), be it time spent/invested/lost, be it a special skill set that is desirable; physical cash is just an crystallized store of this agreed upon value that is standardized and easily exchanged.
Don't know why I felt the need to share that haha I may just post it as its own actual comment too
@@AngryOscillator But value of anything is relative.. If we all had same goal, to move forward as a civilization, everybody would focus just on what he is good at.
However in these days, most of our civilisation's mental and physical power goes to playing stupid games around money. When you start thinking first principles and looking at least into 100 years, not 5, with everything what is going on Earth, every action around money is a waste. Not moving us anywhere.
@@AngryOscillator Praising one unit over real relative value of things is actually a problem, you doesn't need to have one. Looking into long run, it did bring more problems then solutions.
@@vaclavcervinka65 But money me money good now though?
Always proud to see a Saffer making it big on the world stage. Our country needs inspiration again, and this is how it's done.
It's kinda depressing that he had to leave to become successful though. Not sure thats how inspiration is supposed to work lol
Lex started listening to you at the start of the pandemic. You have projected yourself as not only an intellect but also an individual who is not in love with himself. Your honesty on the podcasts is refreshing. Thank you for exposing the breadth of your spirit.
They've covered so much practical and philosophical aspects of the relationship between crowdsourced knowledge, group behaviour, AI, crypto and the stock market (backbone of capitalism) in the first half of the podcast, it's like going through a crash course of human civilization in the information age.
this makes me want to learn coding, lex as always man good episode
Go for it. Just do 20 minutes a day and see where you wind up.
If you could get Charles Hoskinson (Founder of Cardano and brilliant mind) on the podcast that would be an incredible discussion.
First time I’ve listened to Lex and it was seriously one of the most fascinating interviews I’ve heard in a long time. Lex is an amazing interviewer and I’m hooked.
23:10 "if some hedge funds were destroyed, would that be good for the world?" *Visible swallowing*
Lex, you still surprise me with the quality of these conversations.
It's hard to believe it took this long for David Deutsch to come up in an interview. He's perfectly made for a six-hour Lexchat.
Within the last year, I've been introduced to the likes of Tim Pool, Michael Malice, Luke Rudkowski, Eric July, and you.
In a strange way, 2020 was a blessing.
I met a Numerai scientist at an ICLR after party a few years back. One of my colleagues couldn't stop laughing at the idea of essentially monetizing (what seems like) grad student descent. It's a brilliant idea though, and their execution + philosophy is solid.
I do believe there are limitations to staking as a proxy metric for confidence. It assumes rationality in the users / competitors. The reason wallstreetbets is dangerous is because they are not rational in the market. Some redditors could disrupt Numerai's hedge fund by simply staking random / bad predictions (eg; loose money on purpose) and poisoning the ensemble model that pilots the fund for enough eras to bankrupt it. The WSB $GME event proved how far people will go to financially suicide bomb a target for reddit flair and lols. I think there is legitimate concern that identifying and exploiting rationality assumptions for quick profits (or for self promotion --which can be monetized to profit) will become a real trend.
This is basically my favourite podcast now
Amazing series Lex, Honestly It's the overall remunerative nature of the stocks market that drive people into it, but 80% of newbies fail trying to replace years of proven strategies and expertise with luck and guessing. GET INFORMED out here only the experienced profit. I saw a change in my affairs when I went about it with properly it's been very rewarding ever since.
Damn!! I needed this, everyday I try different methods and strategies from videos I watch online I can't seem to generate a profit for myself instead my losses keep piling up. Do tell. Do tell, what changed for you? How have you been making money? I need a better way to trade.
I find people get surprised when I share how easily I manage my stock portfolio and accounts, they think tirelessly at it. Truth is I leave the numbers and all my trade affairs to Licensed pro analyst Mr Noud mika, 4 years ago in 2017 when I started investing in stock&bond I partnered with a Financial advisor/Portfolio manager Mr Noud mika, he bought some stocks that he knew would yield valuable profits and he also forecasted that these companies will triple their net-worth in a space of 4 years.I did not regret taking he's advice because we made over $860k in raw profits over the years.I started with $*0k back then. Since then his been handling all my trades for me
You make it sound easy losing money to something you could prevent hurts like hell. I've been trading for a while and coming across licensed pros from a good source like this isn't easy you know. Some rich folks hide the source of the success. I won't pass up the opportunity, Is Mr Mika available to new investors? How can I contact him?
His mail is
@
@@lukekage799 scam bot bs
The few genuine people who make their livings short selling are going after fraudulent companies. Not wounded companies.
Yes Robin Hood should be shorted...
This point is totally lost in most of these conversations. Those of us who operate within public markets know this - Everyone else does not.
shortselling - its all a scam basically - if you find that a company is fraudulent - you are supposed to inform the police immediately and not make bets
@@valireklaam If you look at the history of short selling, you will see that the authorities almost never do anything when people report that publicly traded companies are involved in fraud. Because of this, there have been short sellers that have done great good for public markets by uncovering fraud that would have gone on for many years if it wasn’t for them.
They are basically investigative journalists that put their money where their mouth is.
Its always good to make up a nice story for your venture to get more money
Hey Lex (Dr. Fridman),
First and foremost thank you for continuing with the podcast despite all thats on your plate, I think i can speak for the collective when I say it has been a tremendous asset to your fellow apes (I am slightly more smooth brained than your wonderful-guest and of course yourself).
I was wondering if you could make a sort of split interview where you interview yourself using the same range of questions you approach your guests with? but respond to the questions as if they were asked by someone else.( really play into the duality)
I think this will help me(us) understand how you became you. What 'colours' where available to you from birth (genetics, upbringing, surrounding environment) and which 'colours' did you have to fight/work to see for all their glory.
I love the painting you're making...my greatest qualm is that I didn't get to see the canvas begin to morph into where it is now.
SUMMARY FOR MODERATE SMOOTH BRAINED PEERS: I cant really explain why (smooth brain, look above) but this "interview" with yourself may merge our individual journey with your own journey of understanding humanity, both in its heights of glory and in its greatest depths of despair.
REALLY SHORT SUMMARY FOR MY SUPER DUPER SMOOTH BRAINED HOMIES:
Toss an extra seat in the back for me...Im coming on this journey (NO MATTER WHAT) , it would make my trip more comfy
...If you wont toss the seat in Im gonna strap on some rollerblades and hold on to your bummer.
@Lex Fridman, please provide a list of the book recommended, thank you
Glad to know about Richard. It felt like listening to my mental dopperganger. I subscribed to his website immediately. I wish I could be surrounded by like-minded individuals like him.
Lex, thanks for all your podcasts. I try to catch you every day. Always interesting!
I really enjoy listening to your Podcasts, the diversity of guests you have on is incredible! Keep it up!
"It's my favorite story ever!" *cuts to hedgehog adjustment*
The symbolism of the stuffed animal on Lex's desk is intriguing 🤔 ...is that a hedgehog? 🦔💘
Usually I fall at sleep to podcasts. This time I could not:) There was a lot of interesting topics in this one👍👍👍
Very much enjoy the conversation in every podcast you've ever done and continue to learn from you and your guests. Thank you for changing my life in many ways.
This was AWESOME my favourite podcast I have listened to!
Hi, Lex! Did you forget to ask Richard about the books' reading this time? It is quite an important part of the discussion, I always paying attention to:) Best regards!
Have to sleep now, but will be listenning to this with my Coffee in the morning, sounds super interesting Lex, please keep doing what you're doing! ;-)
Very exciting interview. Thank you. My amateur comments:
1. Super fun reads on corning the market and short squeezes: “Confessions of a Stock Operator” by Lefevre, and “Business Adventures” by Brooks: Chapter titled “The Last Great Corner”-about how the Wall Street crowd got the stock symbol wrong and then shorted the wrong stock (!) and how the target company founder fought back.
2. If someone can beat the market why don’t they end up owning the market, and on the other extreme, if the market is efficient then how does anyone make any money?
3. A complex system like the weather does not change (much) because of our understanding of it; a complex system like the stock market does change as we use our understanding to buy and sell stock. Why does an initial advantage disappear and never reappear?
4. My simplistic investing method shared: a) know your own emotional self before investing-are you a gambler, a collector, risk adverse, saver, etc.; b) keep costs as low as possible (trading, funds, and taxes); and c) if you make money on a trade move your profit to a long term investment such as Berkshire or a low cost index fund-and never trade those funds.
Good luck! Thank you. William L. Ramseyer
I think it would be a great idea if Lex interviewed Edward Snowden and have him speak on the technical/coding side of things, since in most of his interviews he gets questioned more about his story and the political implications of his findings. That would be an interesting conversation.
Wow, no black curtain background behind Lex. That's a historic podcast! :D
1:45:00 Lex thinks much deeper about this than Richard, but he's right that the question is flawed itself. Not a big fan of traders, especially those involved in hedgefunds, but interesting interview nevertheless.
Lex, you are the best, please keep doing what you do
@1:42:00 Lex's perspective on that hit too close to home :D What he's describing as something too avoid is my ideal of a life. I'm 100% on Richard Craib's side.
I have looked into this and have many unanswered questions and something feels off:
1. Why are you keeping the data a secret. Why can’t your columns have meaningful headers
2. Why is a crypto coin necessary, why can’t people just stake cash, if they loose money they don’t loose to you “the house” they loose to whomever bought in the other end in the market. Further, it is not decentralized, you are running this hedge fund and processing the predictions.
3. Why can’t You share the hedge funds performance... does this even work?
Agreed.
DEFINITELY off.
Shame, was interested.
I think he explains in the podcast that the database they get some of the data from is a private paid for access database that is very expensive. As part of the terms of use they can't just publish it publicly so they have to obfuscate it and it becomes just another machine learning problem.
This project is absolutely legit. The people behind it are interested in the data science and machine learning components of it that’s why they are building it. It’s not a scam to take your money.
@@ethertoangle8133 It's legit but the hedge fund/payout system is absolutely not "democratic/open/...", data scientists get paid not in terms of profit that the hedge fund made but instead tokens and non data scientists can't stake tokens on other peoples models which should seem straightforward to allow and allow the token to gain traction and allow regular people to use the best models in the world
@@ethertoangle8133 Define legit. Tricking data scientists into creating your stock market bot in such a way that the code is useless to them, and makes you god king, seems grimey.
Good interview!
Greetings from Paraguay
Is there a machine learning contest for FDs only?
I've been watching some courses on the stock market. One thing I'm still not clear on is how quickly I can buy, and then resell shares? I know it has to go through the clearing house and a bit about that system, so how do I take advantage of a rapid spike, or dip, in share prices?
You can buy and sell in real time. The trades take 2 days to settle so all it means is that you'd have to wait 2 days if you wanted to withdraw cash from your account. Otherwise you don't have to wait to reinvest your funds.
@@pimpstaff48 thank you.
@@ray32245mv if you’re on a margin account they don take 2 days to settle
@@mannykhoshbin6895 thank you for this info man
Nice ending quote, Thanks. I'll keep my eyes on the playing field.
Appreciate the detailed breakdown! A bit off-topic, but I wanted to ask: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). Could you explain how to move them to Binance?
Being real vs being polite/professional looks like a tradeoff (I might not be using word semantics correctly). On one corner you don't have hypocrisy, but you can really hurt people, specially when your real self is full of crap. On the other corner you don't hurt people, but can be a hypocrite.
Ah this will be good, mister numer.ai ! thanks brother, and thanks for mate who linked me ;)
can’t get enough of these
"I think in the end, freedom wins"
That's my epitaph
Had to pause this after 10min. This has so far sounded like a very bad representation of what the outcome really was. The hedge funds as a whole have survived this short squeeze. As for most of the average retail investors however, they are the ones that in the end got screwed. It's far from being the David and Goliath story people think it was.
Agreed. The reddit/robinhood users on the whole were screwed and they don't even realize it.
I don’t understand what you mean. If you have time, maybe you could explain this. Sorry, I dont know a lot about the market-econ-trading.
Did you simply mean that obviously the hedge funds survived it no matter what, but now the game is outed..?
Thanks in advance, greetings.
@@dbcoco Most of the (uneducated) retail investors who were probably investing their hard earned savings would have been late into this trade. They would have picked up GME (and others) when they were way over valued. The FOMO would have brought most of them undone. The hedge funds have billions of dollars at their disposal and are able to use it to maneuver their way out of any real trouble.
I think your right and maybe the best thing it did was expose absolute power and the genesis to incorruptible decentralized finance rebellion
@@conornoble6205 thanks!! ok i get it now.
Wow. The stock market crowd are just awful in the comments section 🤨 Amazing how a different topic of conversation and guest showcases and entirely different audience.
Lex, can you please interview Sergey Guriev - one of the best economists in the world. He's had some interviews recently but nobody asks the deep questions
@@user-dq8tb6de3i reported, you sneaky =_=
Excellent interview. Praying that you find the meaning of life and the Truth 🙏🏻
@15:18 Isn't that synonymous with "insider trading"?
Thanks for another good interview with good questions.
Your podcast, makes my life better.
"And how beautiful it is because freedom doesn't have a purpose"1:56
Hi! I've been on board with all you've been saying for months. Crazy. Let's let go of Fear!
(Self-Plug), I had an incredible chance to interview Richard a while ago as well, here's my interview with him, if you'd like to hear from another source about the Numerai story: ua-cam.com/video/H0NfDIDcu84/v-deo.html
I've been trying really hard to get Lex on my podcast, hopefully, one day he'll say yes. 🙏
In 1972, I was a draft dodger during the Vietnam War. One of the best decisions I've ever made. During that time, I lived in Beautiful Downtown Burbank, and it was while there was still the Golden Mall, where they closed off a large part of San Fernando Road going through Downtown Burbank, making it pedestrian. There used to be Nazis who would come to the Golden Mall and stand there presenting their literature a la Jehovah's Witnesses, in full Nazi uniforms.They weren't preaching anything, just at parade rest holding literature. And I intuitively understood that my freedom depended on allowing their freedom to be there to a certain extent. I don't agree with them, I grew up knowing two families - one family friends, the other neighbors - who the adults had numbers tattooed on their arms. But like I said, I intuitively understood that if you want freedom, you must give freedom. If they start acting out on their beliefs with violence, all bets are off. But I can't, and I shouldn't want to control what is going on in their heads, because that is very fascist. Ultimately, there is no difference between a right wing dictatorship and a left wing dictatorship, both are control freaks...
I worked on the only day of television that Marlon Brando did, on Roots 2. He got a million dollars for that one day's work. It was the reenactment of Alex Haley's Playboy interview with the head of the American Nazi Party, George Lincoln Rockwell, with Brando in that role. Brando was friendly enough, saying hi to me up on the green (the suspended scaffolding around the top of the set to light the set). What I thought was interesting was that Brando didn't bother learning his dialog. Up on the green with me were guys with idiot cards that contained the dialog. And it explained why Brando had the tendency of looking up as if he was thinking about what to say. But he was reading his dialog on those idiot cards. Alex Haley had made the appointment for the interview with Rockwell, without mentioning that he was black. The scene is how that interview played out...
Thanks for Richard Craib lex, love from South Africa 🇿🇦
The "old school" telephone to the left of Lex in the background seems lost whilst being near 2 of the most influential pathfinders of Artificial Intelligence in the modern world.
15:15 who is going to parties two weeks ago in the states during a global pandemic?
Besides that was an interesting discussion so far liking it :)
Chad Lex apparently.
@@renaissancestatesman it wasn't lex, it was the other guy
Hey lex my favorite russian.. can you get charles hoskinson from IOHK (cardano/ADA)
Charles has even said that he would do Lex before Rogan. And then “Rogan after Goguen!”
Now due in june.. would love if it was before ... but JRE... love it.. any date yet
@@vikingmma no date but we can assume it’s after June since Charles has said that Rogan is like the ultimate boss level so he would be the last podcast on the circuit during the Goguen phase.
@@camerongirgus7680 that just made me thing of double dragon.. but thanks😀
Yo Lex, I just watched the Vitalik and Jack episodes over the weekend... Thanks for more crypto binge material!
As always lex bringing that 🔥🔥 keep it up
This guys company video is crazy! It says ‘the world needs exactly one hedge fund’ . Ayyyy
And another great podcast Lex!! Pls keep up the great work mate!!
But we DO know why RH haulted buying: the DTCC required them to post 3 bi in collateral. What IS shady, however, is that this was the alternative RH found to stop their collateral requirements from continuing to go up. And also how the requirements dropped to less than 750 million after RH haulted buying on their app. How are these requirements numbers even calculated by the DTCC? THAT'S shady.
Well, Wall Street & the Federal Government rescued their constituents, which were the (extreme sarcasm here) poor innocent short sellers & the Hedge Funds who “short sell” & deliberately destroy companies ordinary Americans work for.
@@TraditionalAnglican hail crypto
@@luizscheuer670 - I don’t think switching to Crypto would solve the problem of political and economic corruption coupled with “Crony Capitalism” where both conspire to protect the rich & powerful against the poor & powerless.
@@TraditionalAnglican you are right, but at least we will get to see a world in which central, govenrmental institutions have way less power to play with our economy and therefore well-being. The future belongs to technology, not to the FED, SEC and their friends.
59:40 I've been thinking about system that looks at the market and anticipates what would happen if X action occurred, then if the outcome is a profit opportunity, manipulate the market into fulfilling it. Like a way more advanced version of GME attack on small scales
If the power shuts down what happens to the commercial value of the coin? Will the flip of the switch from off to on work? I like the short squeeze ideas but the coins make me uneasy as an investment idea.
That buffet quote rhymes with a historical one.
When someone inquired why they put their fields in the hands of the Helots, and did not take care of them themselves, he said, "It was by not taking care of the fields, but of ourselves, that we acquired those fields."
Anaxandridas of Sparta
Lindy
"There are two types of shorting... evil shorting and chill shorting" - Richard Craib ... great deliniation!
Hey Lex, you rock. An interesting guest for our future energy needs, Kirk Sorensen to talk about Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor (LFTRs)
That little voice that is morality is called your soul! Your feelings and emotions are your heart! And your intellect and belief are your mind! And those three Internal aspects make up Individualism after we develop our sense of self As a young adult
Shorting is not bad. Your helping the market find the right price for something, up or down.
Awesome podcast. Keep the blockchain content coming. Maybe Charles Hoskinson next?
This is the first time I've heard non-crypto people talk about price oracles. The use case for tokens like LINK are very compelling now.
Linky
Thanks for all you do, Lex.
Isn;t overtraining a general problem in predicting?
Bravo Lex, Bravo 👏
The "bad stock" 😁 just announced a 4/1 stock split issued through a dividend (gamestop)
@ Lex would you consider Nick Szabo on or maybe Andreas A ?
1:01:48 I believe some trading algorithms already do that, when trump tweeted he got covid in the middle of the night, there was massive market activity
TRUMP 2024