I think it makes complete sense. The Israelis are irrelevant. What's relevant is the hate towards the Iranian regime, and how that ties into Israel. It's the ultimate fk you to the Iranian regime, basically. At least that's what I think based on what I'm hearing, and know about it. I could be wrong.
Is iranians at all aware of Operation Clean Break & tha greater israel project?? have they not seen what happens to every country """liberated""" by ZOG???
Actually, it's secularism. All group misbehavior stems from granting blanket legal protections to groups. Groups will not self-police without a credible external pressure.
Interesting smaller questions for 2025: - What will Turkey and Israel do in Syria? - Will the regime complete the sweep in Poland and win the presidential election there in May? - Will Ukraine/Moldova make a move on Transnistria? - Yemen? - Libya?
Turkey Israel is a big one tbh. Turkey is nato, israel is nato and especially usa aligned so it could cause a big rift if anything were to happen in syria of them
Who is in charge in Libya after Muhammar Gaddaffi was murdered with support from the U.S., Britain, and France? Are they possibly terrorists worse than Gaddaffi .
I think Law and Justice (center right) is planning to throw itself under the bus, they choose most boring candidate, instead of motivating the base they want to pick voters from the center, and why they didn't choose Dominik Tarczyński? Because he's a bachelor. The Konfederacja (ancaps and far-right) will put out 3 candidates, none of them has any chance but they can spoil the election. Civic Platform (center left has garbage candidate but he can win only by nature of bad right wing performance. It's freaky that because of early successes populism seemingly didn't took root in Poland.
As a Canadian, I can assure you that you can bet your bottom dollar that Trudeau will be gone this year. The real question is how genuine Polievre will be in his "Canada first" sentiments. I'm hopeful, but our conservatives here have a habit of letting me down.
Pierre won’t be “Canada First” in any way that actually matters, especially in regards to immigration. If anything I suspect his government will be business as usual, only this time competently managed, which is a dreadful thought indeed. Time will tell.
I’m your neighbor to the south in U.S. What is your opinion on the Quebec separatist movement? Should they have their own French speaking country? Or not?
One of those questions should be " Will sword duels come back under French Duello rules?" And "Will the guillotine replace prisons for the hardest of core offenses?"
Would Tone collab with Elon? "Bring up the Rotherham scandel, Elon. We need a few more out of this cabinet. Sue Gray wasn't enough. You can have the contract for the digital ID I want to bring in."
Good day AA, unrelated to international affairs, I will soon be visiting Wales for the first time. Im mainly going to see castles, but I was hoping you might have some non-tourist sites you could recommend to me. Also what Welsh delacacies should I seek out? Cheers.
Regarding Iran's Regime Here are my thoughts: TL;DR: The regime will last for the foreseeable future because: 1. There are no armed group fighting against the regime 2. There won't be any popular uprising because the current gen of youth are too exhausted and traumatized by the last uprising 3. There are no foreign enemies able to invade Iran as things stand More details in my reply:
The internal incompetence of a regime may be the necessary condition for its fall but never the sufficient one. As we’ve seen with Cuba or Venezuela just limping along for a very long time, despite their terrible governance. A regime will always collapse by the hands of an internal (A revolution or a coup d'état) or an external enemy. 1. Revolution: In Iran’s modern history, popular uprisings have a generational character, meaning since ww2 around every 10 years there is an uprising. All of them (except that one time) are brutally squashed, leaving an entire generation traumatized and passivized. It happened in 1951 (Petroleum nationalization movement) then in 1963 (which led to Khomeini’s exile) and then in 1979. Later in 2009 and then in 2022 there were other popular uprisings which went nowhere. For the 79-09 period I would argue that first, people were too exhausted by the war and its aftermath and second, life was actually getting good. So In my opinion we will not see any uprising for another 7-8 years, with a caveat of course, that being who will be the next supreme leader. 2. Coup (or any other armed takeover of the gov): As we’ve seen with Syria, the Assad regime was overthrown by a band of organized bearded men with rifles. Currently, there are no group of organized bearded men with rifles in Iran fighting against the regime. So this one is unlikely as well. 3. Foreign Invasion: In the region Iran does not have any enemies among her neighbors. At best, they are friendly (Iraq, Pakistan, Armenia, Turkmenistan) and at worst are neutral (Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan and Turkey) toward Iran. Israel does not have the strategic depth to do an invasion and as has been discussed by the military bros at the OGC etc. , nor does the US have currently the will or capability to invade. Also: At this time there is a covert civil war going on at the top of the I.R. regime for the question of the successor of Ali Khamenei . Whoever becomes the king will decide the fate of the regime and the nation.
All this is good analysis. However, my dad thinks that if and when the Ayatollah dies, the IRGC -- who have an army don't forget -- might make a move against the mullahs. Thoughts on that possibility?
@@AcademicAgent Yes, in fact I think that's the most possible outcome, that the IRGC install their own puppet mullah as the leader and complete their dominance
@@AcademicAgent For some reason my previous reply disappeared lol...Anyway..Yes it is very likely that the IRGC is going to install their own puppet as the new leader and take full control of the supreme leadership.
@@AcademicAgent Yes, It's very likely that the IRGC may want to install their own puppet as the supreme leader to gain full control over the regime. On the other hand The Khamenei family knows it can't afford to lose access to power after their father's death. So they may strike a deal with the Revolutionary Guard for backing Khamenei's youngest son as the new leader, whom is a very secretive, extremely ambitious and (if insider stories are to be believed) ruthless man.
Regarding Iran, I've been hearing for more than a decade thru the Church grapevine, the growth of underground Christianity in Iran. Numbers are imprecise for obvious reasons. But, its a factor that could upend the regime.
in your estimation what would it take for the British people to accept dissolution of parliament into the larger discourse? Is such talk supressed or subject to legal action?
Georgia might have a civil war, the unrest there is reaching critical mass. The syrian civil war might restart due to the new regime becoming more and more unhinged and islamist.
I don't think that civil war would be at all natural, though. As for Syria, it remains to be seen. I do not believe they got to where they are this quickly by themselves. And everything seems to point at a general acceptance being pushed through the media, and in Western government.
@@anomonyous Syria is a 4 way contest between Turkey, the US, Russia and Israel. There is also the largely intact Syrian Arab Army which was conveniently (mostly) nowhere near the front lines the last few months
Once again, making predictions, then saying they aren’t predictions doesn’t make them not predictions. Soon you will tire of saying “this isn’t a prediction” before making your predictions. You have to say it, because you have tied yourself into a stupid straightjacket that you didn’t need to get in. It’s not like you’ll break a 100% streak of correct predictions. This isn’t like doing your iq test, getting a good score, then never doing one again because you’re scared you’ll never trump it.
I wonder about Musk's actual political relevancy. Sure, he has position and influence. But he remains in the civil court of things. I think very few people actually regard him as politically relevant outside the slop-sphere. He's definitely trying to mess around in politics, that's clear. But to what extent, is not. My view is that he's just looking to increase his own influence and wealth. We'll see what comes from that. Next we have Europe and the immigration issue, as well as the lack of proper European power. I was hoping that Trump would help loosen something in Europe, to help us realise that we need to be seperately powerful and sovereign and regain our control away from American power. And to some extent that realisation has awoken. But it's mostly been quiet. They'd rather toe the line, lick the boots and pay ungodly amounts of money instead. The actual understanding that Europe needs to stand alone and powerful is something you only ever see whispered in the context of Russia. In a way that makes it sound like, if we have the chance, we should immediately go back to living under the American boot, and not removing it entirely. What's happening now is that they're reinforcing that boot and reinforcing the message they'll bow down, rather than even attempting to regain some independence. Rearmement and reinforcement of national security 'is' happening in several nations, however. But it's all from within the modernist, liberal, globalist framework. And therefore cannot really be taken seriously, in those instances. I'm also expecting certain shifts in Japan. Politically, and in the more general populace opinion-wise. Overall, I'm expecting as much to happen as I expect my neighbours to be quiet for once. Which is to say, not at all, unless they move out.
@anomonyous if a pro-European leader emerged, they would hopefully be smart enough to realize they already have a population in the US to form an AIPAC-like lobby
The ‘Iran Flip’ scenario has both Twilight Struggle game logic with an ‘Isaiah 11:6’ vibe. I do not wish to tread on your father’s dreams and hopes but is considering the examples of ‘regime change’ we have seen since 2001 is there a Great Man able to lead his people through the fire?
my left field spitball prediction is by the end of century there will be a Ottoman-Persian empire stretching from Kazakhstan to Bulgaria that will form a unified abrahamic religion.
I think some of the leaders in Europe might change but, as happened with Italy, in the end people will get excited over nothing. Canada there might be a more "Trumpian" atmosphere, but they've had "Reform" leaders between the collapse of their Mulroney-era Tories and the Trudeapian now and that didn't really amount to much either. As for some other part of the world that didn't make the top five if I were to bet I would bet somewhere there will be something that at least seems, for 2025, like a momentous event and will possibly even be one of the top five events of 2025, but I have no guess where or even what that might be. So it's a banal thing to say: it is the Rosanne Rosanadana of statements. "Just goes to show you it's always something. If it's not one thing, it's another." So okay here's a something: internationally there will be very obvious fraying of economies by fall/winter 2025. In retrospect it will be clear that the next very deep global downturn had its roots in the tail-end of 2025. But this really won't become a thing to the average person till ~2026.
Russia is gaining territory consistently now, so expect them to reject any kind of ceasefire as a prerequisite for negotiations, they'll only negotiate while the war continues. It might even be preferable to Russia to keep it going late into 2025.
One year "gaining territory consistently" gained them one Luxemburg's worth of empty fields at the cost of half a million casualties. Of course, Russia won't accept any ceasefire while it has their own territory occupied, however it is simply incapable of reconquering that territory back, not even by escalating third party countries into the war.
@AcademicAgent (Sorry, my replies are getting sent into a black hole lol) to answer your question, yes it is possible that the IRGC would try to install their own puppet as the next leader. On the other hand the Khamenei family knows that it can't afford to lose their position when their father passes away, so it is also possible that they would try to make a deal with the IRGC for backing Khamenei's youngest son (Mojtaba) as the next supreme leader. In fact he has had for a long time leadership ambitions, is a very secretive and (if anecdotes are to be believed) a ruthless man
Agree with you generally. I think you should have addressed the potentially quite serious uptick in terrorism across Europe. I could see it a while back, and think it could get rather hectic.
Mate just admit it, you love predictions! "Schultz and Trudeau likely to go, Starmer likely to stay", "4 out 5 chance of a more Trumpian Europe", "4 out of 5 chance Ukraine war will end"
@@AcademicAgent Okay not predictions but qualitative and quantitative non-deterministic forecasts of likelihoods based on intuition and analysis. I'll settle on political tea-leaf reading :)
AA can you please give an updated version of your different groups in society idea. Where you talked about peasants, merchants, priests and warriors. You always said you were going to make a more comprehensive explanation on it but never did.
Trump is playing hardcore team Kurds. So if they get a state (especially since a portion of them is located in Iran), then Iran flipping would not really be all that out of question. There's a strong geopolitical realignment right now and it all depends on key moves and factions.
Sam Hyde starting up a news week show. Wonder if it will be any good like what you said on vox populi or if it will just be slop. Sam is fairly smart but he tends to ramble.
hello AA, one thing you missed that would really cause an upset for the GAE in a catastrophic way would be an Israeli vs Turkish direct clash in Syria. It is almost certain their proxies will start shooting each other though it is not certain it will escalate into a direct confrontation, but things are already moving in that direction if you take seriously what some Americans are saying about killing Turkish soldiers. It would be fascinating to watch such a situation especially, if the US Regime are given the option of being able save either NATO or Israel, but not both. Both Erdoğan and Netanyahu are both foolhardy enough to escalate themselves into direct confrontation with each other, so I certainly wouldn't say such a development is unlikely. If this were to happen then Trump would back Israel and Turkey will flip completely to the Russian/Chinese side of the divide, which would mean the end of NATO credibility, especially after the Ukraine debacle.
The Iranian regime will survive with Russian and Chinese backing, they won't tolerate the West threatening their Southern and Western borders respectively.
The Chinese are purely economical yeah and so where the British ruling class at the height of the Empire its always been economics only the poor buggers dying in far off lands thought it was for glory and country
Regarding pt 3, I’ve seen various evidence of Iranian pro-Israel sentiment, but questioned its validity. Especially after similar claims by self-proclaimed Iraqi anti-Saddamists based in the west. But, it’s interesting to hear you mention this too. As you say, Israel and Iran are in some ways natural allies, or at the very least, not natural enemies. An Iranian counter revolution would truly be something happens. Regarding pt 1, Russia have got their secondary goals. But they tried to take Kharkov and Kiev in the first stage of the attack. They did not get their primary goal, eliminating Zelensky and installing a puppet govt. However, those secondary goals are, probably, enough. Surely? Btw I love SureJan. Unlike Merit which I have to mute immediately.
mining for bitcoin isn't very profitable. In fact, the biggest companies are losing money through share dilution and the enormous capital destruction of maintaining and operating the mining rigs.
1. I'd say it's more likely than unlikely, but I'm not nearly as confident as I was before Trump's election. Europe has tied itself to Ukraine politically, and I feel like a prolonged conflict would better suit the interest of the technocrats in the EU. Sure America has the soft power thanks to NATO to just buck the wishes of the EU, but I don't think that Trump has the political capital to completely end the war. 2. I think this one ties in with 3 a lot more than we would like to believe. Israel has won on pretty much all fronts in the last year, in spite of the student protests and relative geopolitical isolation. The axis of resistance has completely imploded. The real question is whether Israel wants to outright annex Syria and Lebanon, or if they are just going to settle with installing puppet regimes. Given how the Zionists behave, I don't think they're going to do it in a pretty or subtle way, especially with the Zionists back in control (tacitly), in America. 3. I feel like the writing is on the wall for the Islamic Republic. Israel knows what it's doing sowing popular discontent; if there is upheaval there, which I believe there will be, it will not be a quick and relatively painless affair like we saw in Syria in the last month. The IRGC are zealots and will go down shooting. With that in mind, I don't know if the Islamic Republic will fall in 2025, but it definitely won't be a thing by 2030. Democracy is on the horizon there, whether we like it or not. 4. PRC has been on the geopolitical decline since wolf-warrior diplomacy blew up in their face. They've built up such a massive coalition of Asian nations against them that I can't see them effectively expanding. Perhaps they will act like a cornered animal and still launch an invasion of Taiwan even in spite of what would be a war they cannot possibly win. Their only positive development in Asian geopolitics has been in South Korea, where the pro-democracy/pro-China Left managed to effectively clean house. NOTHING EVER HAPPENS. 5. I feel like most of the technocrat states will successfully contain their opposition. Poilevre is more pro-immigration than Trudeau is. Scholz will be replaced by Merkel's party; AfD has no chance at ever winning an election. Starmer will be in Parliament for the next four years, and a lot will happen in politics that will probably allow him to right the ship with Blair. I feel like the most vulnerable is Macron thanks to how large the radical Left and Right are in that country, but even he pulled off a miracle in the last election, and should never be counted out.
No way this war ends by April unless Ukraine totally concedes everything. Why would Russia stop before getting everything they want! Even if NATO goes all in, Ukraine is done.
You act like Russia is «the Allies» of WW1 and WW2 fame, not being content with anything less than unconditional surrender. That’s a very rare attitude to have, historically.
@@Vingulindeed. Russia, wisely knowing its own limitations, has been fairly coy on exactly what it wants. "De-n@zification" could mean a number of things. Crimea and Donbas and no NATO would probably be a victory.
On the 20th of the 25th of this year the numerical alignment 20252025 will occur for the first time in 222 years coinciding with DJT 2nd inauguration! This will be the start of an epoch level major change event in shifting awareness. If you see DJT eating a red apple on the 2nd of the 2nd buy gold! Because its going to be HUGE! (Subs and donations etc.) This is how modernity sounds.
I don't think it's meant to be enjoyed. But there are people who enjoy eating toilet cubes. You do you, be free. Eat all the toilet cubes the paramedics will let you.
AA is the most prolific non-predicting prediction maker on UA-cam.
¬_¬
«Pro-Israeli Iranians» is the saddest thing I’ve heard in a while
All of them are losers and grifters
Indeed, I'd rather than think of "Iranians indifferent to Gaza"
More so Iranians who hate their oppressive government
I think it makes complete sense.
The Israelis are irrelevant. What's relevant is the hate towards the Iranian regime, and how that ties into Israel. It's the ultimate fk you to the Iranian regime, basically.
At least that's what I think based on what I'm hearing, and know about it. I could be wrong.
Is iranians at all aware of Operation Clean Break & tha greater israel project?? have they not seen what happens to every country """liberated""" by ZOG???
Usery is the biggest problem in this world.
They don't charge interest among themselves.
@@malicant123 whilst starving out the rest and making the only food remaining happen to be on their hook so to speak
Sir, please stop using hate speach
"Neither a borrower nor a lender be" good old fashioned wisdom. Being in debt is bad but so is having people in debt to you, bad for the soul. ✝️
Actually, it's secularism. All group misbehavior stems from granting blanket legal protections to groups. Groups will not self-police without a credible external pressure.
Interesting smaller questions for 2025:
- What will Turkey and Israel do in Syria?
- Will the regime complete the sweep in Poland and win the presidential election there in May?
- Will Ukraine/Moldova make a move on Transnistria?
- Yemen?
- Libya?
Turkey Israel is a big one tbh. Turkey is nato, israel is nato and especially usa aligned so it could cause a big rift if anything were to happen in syria of them
Who is in charge in Libya after Muhammar Gaddaffi was murdered with support from the U.S., Britain, and France? Are they possibly terrorists worse than Gaddaffi .
I think Law and Justice (center right) is planning to throw itself under the bus, they choose most boring candidate, instead of motivating the base they want to pick voters from the center, and why they didn't choose Dominik Tarczyński? Because he's a bachelor. The Konfederacja (ancaps and far-right) will put out 3 candidates, none of them has any chance but they can spoil the election. Civic Platform (center left has garbage candidate but he can win only by nature of bad right wing performance. It's freaky that because of early successes populism seemingly didn't took root in Poland.
As a Canadian, I can assure you that you can bet your bottom dollar that Trudeau will be gone this year. The real question is how genuine Polievre will be in his "Canada first" sentiments. I'm hopeful, but our conservatives here have a habit of letting me down.
Consoom a dozen more AA pills and the concept of the containment right will be crystal clear.
Pierre won’t be “Canada First” in any way that actually matters, especially in regards to immigration. If anything I suspect his government will be business as usual, only this time competently managed, which is a dreadful thought indeed. Time will tell.
Trudeau will be in.
Im inversing on your prediction
I’m your neighbor to the south in U.S. What is your opinion on the Quebec separatist movement? Should they have their own French speaking country? Or not?
Well, it was fast
One of those questions should be " Will sword duels come back under French Duello rules?"
And "Will the guillotine replace prisons for the hardest of core offenses?"
No Iranians ever died fot Palestine. Iranians die for Iran. Also, Iran would love to be US' friend but Israel would never let them.
Iran thinks the US is the "Great Satan" and keeps sponsoring terrorism against it. That's a weird way of trying to be someone's friend.
I can't believe they added Ukraine from the Stalker series to real life! Heckin wowsers.
The game was so successful they recreated it IRL, very cool of them
Thanks!
Would Tone collab with Elon?
"Bring up the Rotherham scandel, Elon. We need a few more out of this cabinet. Sue Gray wasn't enough. You can have the contract for the digital ID I want to bring in."
Good day AA, unrelated to international affairs, I will soon be visiting Wales for the first time. Im mainly going to see castles, but I was hoping you might have some non-tourist sites you could recommend to me. Also what Welsh delacacies should I seek out? Cheers.
Have fun. Try that Shirgard butter and see if it actually is that nice.
For welsh food definately get some bara brith, and try laverbread
Obvious one, but a bit of rarebit might be nice
Snowdonia and Betwys coed
I almost forgot that ridiculous netanyahu bomb picture. That is something straight out of Looney Tunes.
All it needs is an "ACME" caption on the board.
Wait, that's real? Thought it was edited. 😂
Next time they will say that Iran is 98% of the way to creating a masterbation killing machine
@@Alto53 Me too. So much for their super-duper high eye cues. 🤦♂
He's been dragging that prop around for decades.
Agree with you on China. They play the (very) long game.
Regarding Iran's Regime Here are my thoughts:
TL;DR: The regime will last for the foreseeable future because:
1. There are no armed group fighting against the regime
2. There won't be any popular uprising because the current gen of youth are too exhausted and traumatized by the last uprising
3. There are no foreign enemies able to invade Iran as things stand
More details in my reply:
The internal incompetence of a regime may be the necessary condition for its fall but never the sufficient one. As we’ve seen with Cuba or Venezuela just limping along for a very long time, despite their terrible governance. A regime will always collapse by the hands of an internal (A revolution or a coup d'état) or an external enemy.
1. Revolution: In Iran’s modern history, popular uprisings have a generational character, meaning since ww2 around every 10 years there is an uprising. All of them (except that one time) are brutally squashed, leaving an entire generation traumatized and passivized. It happened in 1951 (Petroleum nationalization movement) then in 1963 (which led to Khomeini’s exile) and then in 1979. Later in 2009 and then in 2022 there were other popular uprisings which went nowhere. For the 79-09 period I would argue that first, people were too exhausted by the war and its aftermath and second, life was actually getting good. So In my opinion we will not see any uprising for another 7-8 years, with a caveat of course, that being who will be the next supreme leader.
2. Coup (or any other armed takeover of the gov): As we’ve seen with Syria, the Assad regime was overthrown by a band of organized bearded men with rifles. Currently, there are no group of organized bearded men with rifles in Iran fighting against the regime. So this one is unlikely as well.
3. Foreign Invasion: In the region Iran does not have any enemies among her neighbors. At best, they are friendly (Iraq, Pakistan, Armenia, Turkmenistan) and at worst are neutral (Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan and Turkey) toward Iran. Israel does not have the strategic depth to do an invasion and as has been discussed by the military bros at the OGC etc. , nor does the US have currently the will or capability to invade.
Also: At this time there is a covert civil war going on at the top of the I.R. regime for the question of the successor of Ali Khamenei . Whoever becomes the king will decide the fate of the regime and the nation.
All this is good analysis. However, my dad thinks that if and when the Ayatollah dies, the IRGC -- who have an army don't forget -- might make a move against the mullahs. Thoughts on that possibility?
@@AcademicAgent Yes, in fact I think that's the most possible outcome, that the IRGC install their own puppet mullah as the leader and complete their dominance
@@AcademicAgent For some reason my previous reply disappeared lol...Anyway..Yes it is very likely that the IRGC is going to install their own puppet as the new leader and take full control of the supreme leadership.
@@AcademicAgent Yes, It's very likely that the IRGC may want to install their own puppet as the supreme leader to gain full control over the regime. On the other hand The Khamenei family knows it can't afford to lose access to power after their father's death. So they may strike a deal with the Revolutionary Guard for backing Khamenei's youngest son as the new leader, whom is a very secretive, extremely ambitious and (if insider stories are to be believed) ruthless man.
Iran has hardly any debt. Inundating Iran and Iranians with debt will create the illusion of wealth for 20 years.
Who will buy their debt? It could only possibly be china or Chinese citizens but even that won’t be enough.
Saying that someone has "had his chips" as to say they're finished might be the funniest british slang I've ever heard...
I'm also mildly interested in South Korea, at the moment.
As well as the expansion and strengthening of the BRICS.
They sure are expanding, but aren't getting much stronger.
Based BRICchad.
Regarding Iran, I've been hearing for more than a decade thru the Church grapevine, the growth of underground Christianity in Iran. Numbers are imprecise for obvious reasons. But, its a factor that could upend the regime.
in your estimation what would it take for the British people to accept dissolution of parliament into the larger discourse? Is such talk supressed or subject to legal action?
Wait a minute...this isn't Alcoholics Anonymous!
The needle returns to the start of the song and we all sing along like before 🎶
Del Amitri.
Everything always happens
@@Vingulexcept when it doesn't
Georgia might have a civil war, the unrest there is reaching critical mass.
The syrian civil war might restart due to the new regime becoming more and more unhinged and islamist.
I don't think that civil war would be at all natural, though.
As for Syria, it remains to be seen. I do not believe they got to where they are this quickly by themselves. And everything seems to point at a general acceptance being pushed through the media, and in Western government.
@@anomonyous Syria is a 4 way contest between Turkey, the US, Russia and Israel. There is also the largely intact Syrian Arab Army which was conveniently (mostly) nowhere near the front lines the last few months
Once again, making predictions, then saying they aren’t predictions doesn’t make them not predictions. Soon you will tire of saying “this isn’t a prediction” before making your predictions. You have to say it, because you have tied yourself into a stupid straightjacket that you didn’t need to get in. It’s not like you’ll break a 100% streak of correct predictions. This isn’t like doing your iq test, getting a good score, then never doing one again because you’re scared you’ll never trump it.
No predictions were made in this video.
I wonder about Musk's actual political relevancy. Sure, he has position and influence. But he remains in the civil court of things. I think very few people actually regard him as politically relevant outside the slop-sphere.
He's definitely trying to mess around in politics, that's clear. But to what extent, is not. My view is that he's just looking to increase his own influence and wealth. We'll see what comes from that.
Next we have Europe and the immigration issue, as well as the lack of proper European power. I was hoping that Trump would help loosen something in Europe, to help us realise that we need to be seperately powerful and sovereign and regain our control away from American power.
And to some extent that realisation has awoken. But it's mostly been quiet. They'd rather toe the line, lick the boots and pay ungodly amounts of money instead.
The actual understanding that Europe needs to stand alone and powerful is something you only ever see whispered in the context of Russia. In a way that makes it sound like, if we have the chance, we should immediately go back to living under the American boot, and not removing it entirely.
What's happening now is that they're reinforcing that boot and reinforcing the message they'll bow down, rather than even attempting to regain some independence.
Rearmement and reinforcement of national security 'is' happening in several nations, however. But it's all from within the modernist, liberal, globalist framework. And therefore cannot really be taken seriously, in those instances.
I'm also expecting certain shifts in Japan. Politically, and in the more general populace opinion-wise.
Overall, I'm expecting as much to happen as I expect my neighbours to be quiet for once. Which is to say, not at all, unless they move out.
Could you expand on Japan?
@anomonyous if a pro-European leader emerged, they would hopefully be smart enough to realize they already have a population in the US to form an AIPAC-like lobby
@@damaristighe3227 Well, they have recently opened their borders so I think we might be seeing some reaction to that at least.
2025 is promising to be a year full of occurrences of questionable consequence, as far as I can see.
The ‘Iran Flip’ scenario has both Twilight Struggle game logic with an ‘Isaiah 11:6’ vibe.
I do not wish to tread on your father’s dreams and hopes but is considering the examples of ‘regime change’ we have seen since 2001 is there a Great Man able to lead his people through the fire?
If it does happen, it will just mean more chaos in the middle east and, naturally, more immigrants for Europe to deal with.
Great video academic agent
Hopefully you're right
my left field spitball prediction is by the end of century there will be a Ottoman-Persian empire stretching from Kazakhstan to Bulgaria that will form a unified abrahamic religion.
The Turks and the Persians team up? When has that ever happened before?
Will Trump take Greenland, the Panama Canal, and/or Canada?!
No - he is dead.
I think some of the leaders in Europe might change but, as happened with Italy, in the end people will get excited over nothing.
Canada there might be a more "Trumpian" atmosphere, but they've had "Reform" leaders between the collapse of their Mulroney-era Tories and the Trudeapian now and that didn't really amount to much either.
As for some other part of the world that didn't make the top five if I were to bet I would bet somewhere there will be something that at least seems, for 2025, like a momentous event and will possibly even be one of the top five events of 2025, but I have no guess where or even what that might be. So it's a banal thing to say: it is the Rosanne Rosanadana of statements. "Just goes to show you it's always something. If it's not one thing, it's another." So okay here's a something: internationally there will be very obvious fraying of economies by fall/winter 2025. In retrospect it will be clear that the next very deep global downturn had its roots in the tail-end of 2025. But this really won't become a thing to the average person till ~2026.
Russia is gaining territory consistently now, so expect them to reject any kind of ceasefire as a prerequisite for negotiations, they'll only negotiate while the war continues. It might even be preferable to Russia to keep it going late into 2025.
They’re consistently taking abandoned farmland and swamps
One year "gaining territory consistently" gained them one Luxemburg's worth of empty fields at the cost of half a million casualties.
Of course, Russia won't accept any ceasefire while it has their own territory occupied, however it is simply incapable of reconquering that territory back, not even by escalating third party countries into the war.
@@FaithfulOfBrigantia Hilarious.
Slovyansk and Kramatorsk are going to fall within a few months
@@genxploits Didn't realise Avdiivka was a swamp. I thought it was a key stronghold Syrksy invested a substantial defence into
@@juliantheapostate8295
The world renowned city of Avdiivka lmao
@AcademicAgent (Sorry, my replies are getting sent into a black hole lol) to answer your question, yes it is possible that the IRGC would try to install their own puppet as the next leader. On the other hand the Khamenei family knows that it can't afford to lose their position when their father passes away, so it is also possible that they would try to make a deal with the IRGC for backing Khamenei's youngest son (Mojtaba) as the next supreme leader. In fact he has had for a long time leadership ambitions, is a very secretive and (if anecdotes are to be believed) a ruthless man
Excellent stream
Happy New Year.
I predict Surejan to be stuck in my head for months to come.
Great predictions 😜
6:40 "Pro-Israeli Iranians?" Another kick in the guts (following from the fall of Assad) for our poor Keithín.
Good analysis on Iran
Agree with you generally. I think you should have addressed the potentially quite serious uptick in terrorism across Europe. I could see it a while back, and think it could get rather hectic.
Why do you think terrorism has restarted again?
Turkey's application to join BRICS is interesting.
13:44 AND HERE COMES THE SHAH WITH A STEEL CHAIR.
Doubt it. Probably more extreme Islamists, if not the IRGC
@ I would agree with you, but the heir to the Shah literally put out a video calling for regime change and “muh democracy” a few months ago.
I don’t know if it was intentional, but the introductory image looked like The Three Stooges.
Good video.
Mate just admit it, you love predictions! "Schultz and Trudeau likely to go, Starmer likely to stay", "4 out 5 chance of a more Trumpian Europe", "4 out of 5 chance Ukraine war will end"
Not predictions!
@@AcademicAgent Okay not predictions but qualitative and quantitative non-deterministic forecasts of likelihoods based on intuition and analysis. I'll settle on political tea-leaf reading :)
Never underestimate the power of long term economic sanctions.
You think Iran will flip? Maybe even taken over by the G.A.E.?
They don't work if the target country can function as an autarky
AA can you please give an updated version of your different groups in society idea.
Where you talked about peasants, merchants, priests and warriors.
You always said you were going to make a more comprehensive explanation on it but never did.
Trump is playing hardcore team Kurds. So if they get a state (especially since a portion of them is located in Iran), then Iran flipping would not really be all that out of question.
There's a strong geopolitical realignment right now and it all depends on key moves and factions.
Is he? The Kurds in Syria seem to have been thrown to the wolves
Sanctions create animosity, and criminal/terrorist networks.
Seems like the late Shah’s heir perhaps his son would be the safest ally for the U.S. in Iran.
What about Greenland and Canada becoming part of the USA, supreme maga. And we have the Panama canal, small stuff.
6:30 Harry Harrison predicted all this in his science fiction books
We need to get back to the vision John Wyndham predicted for us 👍
If China is gonna make a move on Taiwan the worst time for them to do so is during a Trump presidency. They aren't that stupid.
Sam Hyde starting up a news week show. Wonder if it will be any good like what you said on vox populi or if it will just be slop. Sam is fairly smart but he tends to ramble.
he has a knack for finding new and interesting ways to talk about unpopular/difficult subjects.
hello AA, one thing you missed that would really cause an upset for the GAE in a catastrophic way would be an Israeli vs Turkish direct clash in Syria. It is almost certain their proxies will start shooting each other though it is not certain it will escalate into a direct confrontation, but things are already moving in that direction if you take seriously what some Americans are saying about killing Turkish soldiers. It would be fascinating to watch such a situation especially, if the US Regime are given the option of being able save either NATO or Israel, but not both. Both Erdoğan and Netanyahu are both foolhardy enough to escalate themselves into direct confrontation with each other, so I certainly wouldn't say such a development is unlikely. If this were to happen then Trump would back Israel and Turkey will flip completely to the Russian/Chinese side of the divide, which would mean the end of NATO credibility, especially after the Ukraine debacle.
The Iranian regime will survive with Russian and Chinese backing, they won't tolerate the West threatening their Southern and Western borders respectively.
I hope so
Decay.
Decay everywhere.
It'll be interesting to see what the Chinese media is signalling over Chinese New Year. I'll monitor the key themes that come up.
Panama Canal a potential flash-point between US and China.
Tend to think it will just be BAU though.
The Chinese are purely economical yeah and so where the British ruling class at the height of the Empire its always been economics only the poor buggers dying in far off lands thought it was for glory and country
@academicagent - the glo-ists need 1929 before 1941 to move the empire
Read this as an official request for a 10 hour Sure Jan vid.
Regarding pt 3, I’ve seen various evidence of Iranian pro-Israel sentiment, but questioned its validity. Especially after similar claims by self-proclaimed Iraqi anti-Saddamists based in the west. But, it’s interesting to hear you mention this too. As you say, Israel and Iran are in some ways natural allies, or at the very least, not natural enemies. An Iranian counter revolution would truly be something happens.
Regarding pt 1, Russia have got their secondary goals. But they tried to take Kharkov and Kiev in the first stage of the attack. They did not get their primary goal, eliminating Zelensky and installing a puppet govt. However, those secondary goals are, probably, enough. Surely?
Btw I love SureJan. Unlike Merit which I have to mute immediately.
All it's glory! _Sure, Jan_ is one of my favorite promos: it was the beat, the beat got to me.
The Beat is just farts. How's That good?
@@Enoverdoskaffe Look people are making millions off this _Fartcoin_ thing so...
Even if ordinary people in Iran are now seeing Netanyahu as a saviour, why does that matter if power is top down?
There's a critical point at which no ruling class can rule without tacit consent of the ruled. Iranian regime are down to about 10-15%.
@@AcademicAgent thanks for the response. I hope that something happens!
The situation around Israel will surely escalate to a crazy level. I think Donald will lose this one. But will win ending the Ukr. situation.
How many wars started by US presidents since the end of WWII? How many started by Chinese presidents?
Nothing ever happens
NOTHING
Here is a comment to boost the algo.
I know you’d hate it, but I’d be interested to hear your opinion on the latest “based camp” video on this subject. That is changes a head in Iran
What or who are based camp?
@ that’s the channel name. Dutton put me on to them a year or two back. Pro natalists. I think you’ll hate them.
2025 will be year of bloodshed, 2026-2027 will be year of starvation 2028 will be year of victory...
mining for bitcoin isn't very profitable. In fact, the biggest companies are losing money through share dilution and the enormous capital destruction of maintaining and operating the mining rigs.
Sure.Sure. Sure.Sure.Sure. And So.
1. I'd say it's more likely than unlikely, but I'm not nearly as confident as I was before Trump's election. Europe has tied itself to Ukraine politically, and I feel like a prolonged conflict would better suit the interest of the technocrats in the EU. Sure America has the soft power thanks to NATO to just buck the wishes of the EU, but I don't think that Trump has the political capital to completely end the war.
2. I think this one ties in with 3 a lot more than we would like to believe. Israel has won on pretty much all fronts in the last year, in spite of the student protests and relative geopolitical isolation. The axis of resistance has completely imploded. The real question is whether Israel wants to outright annex Syria and Lebanon, or if they are just going to settle with installing puppet regimes. Given how the Zionists behave, I don't think they're going to do it in a pretty or subtle way, especially with the Zionists back in control (tacitly), in America.
3. I feel like the writing is on the wall for the Islamic Republic. Israel knows what it's doing sowing popular discontent; if there is upheaval there, which I believe there will be, it will not be a quick and relatively painless affair like we saw in Syria in the last month. The IRGC are zealots and will go down shooting. With that in mind, I don't know if the Islamic Republic will fall in 2025, but it definitely won't be a thing by 2030. Democracy is on the horizon there, whether we like it or not.
4. PRC has been on the geopolitical decline since wolf-warrior diplomacy blew up in their face. They've built up such a massive coalition of Asian nations against them that I can't see them effectively expanding. Perhaps they will act like a cornered animal and still launch an invasion of Taiwan even in spite of what would be a war they cannot possibly win. Their only positive development in Asian geopolitics has been in South Korea, where the pro-democracy/pro-China Left managed to effectively clean house. NOTHING EVER HAPPENS.
5. I feel like most of the technocrat states will successfully contain their opposition. Poilevre is more pro-immigration than Trudeau is. Scholz will be replaced by Merkel's party; AfD has no chance at ever winning an election. Starmer will be in Parliament for the next four years, and a lot will happen in politics that will probably allow him to right the ship with Blair. I feel like the most vulnerable is Macron thanks to how large the radical Left and Right are in that country, but even he pulled off a miracle in the last election, and should never be counted out.
8:50 im in a FB group, they are pretty based, lots of J and Persians in there, all secular ones. Yes.
china not have imperial ambitions? - it is an empire.
7:45 "spun on a dime" ? Loose, estuary pronunciation AA. Have you been keeping bad company?
Friend of the working man
Is Xi coming to the inauguration?
trump and kamla wıl dıe ... and obamas wıl becom presıdent .. just my hunch
Nah... they will reanimate Jimmy Carter for his well deserved second turn
No way this war ends by April unless Ukraine totally concedes everything. Why would Russia stop before getting everything they want! Even if NATO goes all in, Ukraine is done.
Do we know exactly what they want? Everything east of the Dnieper?
You act like Russia is «the Allies» of WW1 and WW2 fame, not being content with anything less than unconditional surrender. That’s a very rare attitude to have, historically.
@@Vingulindeed. Russia, wisely knowing its own limitations, has been fairly coy on exactly what it wants. "De-n@zification" could mean a number of things. Crimea and Donbas and no NATO would probably be a victory.
@@nonnobis2232Russia does not wisely know its limitations because they launched the war in the first place
@@genxploitsRussia didn't launch any war. It had been happening 10 years before the invasion.
the Russians have yet to achieve a single one of their stated objectives in Ukraine so I doubt it will end this year
Hey at least we owned the libs eh! 😂
Make Iran Zoroastrian again or Christian. Better Christian.
On the 20th of the 25th of this year the numerical alignment 20252025 will occur for the first time in 222 years coinciding with DJT 2nd inauguration! This will be the start of an epoch level major change event in shifting awareness.
If you see DJT eating a red apple on the 2nd of the 2nd buy gold! Because its going to be HUGE!
(Subs and donations etc.)
This is how modernity sounds.
Nothing will happen.
Surejan is the worst
triggered by Trump's hair in your thumbnail
Weidel.
Am I the only one enjoying the Surejan song?
I don't think it's meant to be enjoyed. But there are people who enjoy eating toilet cubes. You do you, be free. Eat all the toilet cubes the paramedics will let you.
6:40 truly Gulible Goim exist all across the globe
It's a bit like the people of Middle Earth hoping that goblins will help with their orc problem...
Stop with the anti semitism
@Hispanocel shabbazgoy
@@genxploits that would be idiotic, because they’re against us. Against as in anti.
Sam hyde take on tech bros maga..