I am towards the end of my FI journey; planning to retire within the next 2-3 years. What I am discovering is that I am very anxious when I am so close to the finish line. The 'boring middle' was to a degree, boring. But the 'anxious ending' is something I am contending with now. Jason/Eric: curious if either of you experienced (or are experiencing) the 'anxious ending'?
@@Diomedes01 Jason here - 100% normal. irrespective of how many times we've done the math, how the large the buffers are that we've built into our plans, and how ready we are to be done with work, it's only human to be anxious. As with any big transition, it's natural to second-guess ourselves. So long as you're confident in your "why" as well as all the math, you're good. As I mention in this tip, one thing I'd recommend is to do the exercise of thinking about all the positive things you get from work in addition to compensation, as these will be gone when you stop work. Make sure you understand these and think about the other ways in which you'll find these in the future. It's both constructive in helping you think hard about work, as well as gaining confidence in your path forward. I wish you the best of luck!
I'm probably right at 50%. In the middle of cashing out my employers equity to get more 70/30 orientation. So not discouraged, but more optimistic which led me to the channel after researching cash out tax strategies in my current situation. Binging the channel now, migrating to Discord after last episode note. Thanks for this channel! It's giving me confidence at 41, that I'll be there in a decade
I’m in that boring middle and have like 15 years to go and it’s SO boring. I have a super stressful job and would really like to quit and retire early but I can’t. That said this episode was really helpful because now I’m going to redo my investing strategy to allocate more money to having fun in the present because no day is promised. This will also help the journey be more enjoyable versus miserable for me 😊
Speaking as someone who is on the non-fire retirement path (current age 56 and targeting age 62), I’ve obsessed about retirement for 20+ years. It was necessary for me to obsess in order to educate myself and take the needed steps to pay off debt. As a finance analyst, looking at the numbers often helps relax me and reassure me. The big thing I did to stay positive and enjoy life now and be more present was to downsize and move to our waterfront retirement home last year (working remotely).
Deep in the messy middle. Kids, private school etc.. Still invest a lot but waiting game now. My advice is build your life now. Travel now, don't wait to do it all. Do some of it right now.
It's like, I am in love with my kids and cherish their every moment growing up, but I can't really become free from my desk job until they get older. A true love/hate scenario.
@@Travis12861 also approaching FI at 37 but no kids yet...I think about the decision nearly every day. It's impossible to run the counterfactual (I see Dakota saying Kids>FI but I think data suggests you can be just as happy without kids) but our "clock" is ticking...
It’s a perfect Sunday morning when I wake up to another 2 sides of FI video! One thing that helped put market gyrations into perspective for me was big Ern’s SWR spreadsheet. It has a table that shows safe withdrawal rates given how much the market is down for its high. If you play around with it, you’ll see that the actual safe initial withdrawal amount doesn’t vary that much since logically you can slightly increase the percentage when the market is down. It’s really your contributions and reaching a new all time market high that move the needle
I am in the messy middle and I love it. I also recently read Die With Zero. It really helped me to put into perspective what I was already thinking. I learned I was missing out on today worried about tomorrow and tommow is not promised. I am new to FIRE but have been living it long before it was a thing. I plan to retire at 55 and I am currently 46. I have been with the same company for 15 years. I have noticed that my number is on track and at this point I am really on cruise control. I made a conscious decision to just let it be and really start living. My girls are 10 and 12 and that gives me 8 years or less to make every memory I can. Since the investment decisions I made in my 20's make much more impact them the ones I do today, it is time to learn to cherish experiences over an extra % or 2 more in my portfolio. We will continue to keep our 25% savings rate. My wife and I decided we can spend every dime we make above that. Just got back from a cruise and have another one booked for October and again next July. We are planning several other trips as well around school. I was not enjoying life and like most of you was always looking at my number and time left. Work is work for me. Taking the time to really engage with my kids and enjoy them has made the FIRE journey fun again and work bearable. Remember not miss out on making a memory today thinking about all the memories you hope to make in the future. Good Luck to everyone.
“Enjoy the messy middle as it could be worse. It could be the messy end. “ Love the humor! We do need to laugh a little at the things that bother us. It makes it easier for sure.
I'm so glad to see you both back! I find myself obsessively thinking about things that may be the last time they are happening. One day we ate Thanksgiving dinner together as a family for the last time and we had no idea. One day I met my friends to ride bikes for the last time and we had no idea. One day we went to the theme park as a family for the last time and we had no idea. I just need to do a better job in taking action to enjoy life even if it means a bit more time until retirement. I feel that as the time draws nearer, we can become hyper focused on the numbers. For me, I know I need more "life" in my life because I spend WAY too much time on the finances. Oddly, I feel more comfortable when the market is down than when it is up. It's like buying things on sale versus spending more because of inflation. I feel like I've swung too much in the other direction - when I was younger I was blissfully unaware and saved and spent. I didn't save as much as I should have but I was happy. Today I am hyper focused on the numbers and have a hard time spending on anything. I have a bit of an obsessive brain and now it's all about increasing my portfolio. The messy middle isn't for the faint of heart! One thing I did this morning, though, was to pull a 10 year statement for my 401k plan. Over the last 10 years the increase in value has exceeded my contributions. I think you guys should do some case study reviews ;)
Celebrate the process is right. I used to fret at every milestone as we would hit it and then the market would turn and take it away again, but we eventually busted through it and moved to the next plateau. Getting so close to the jumping off point does bring clarity. We're within 18 months and are sure we are ready while just going through the motions until then. For us it's 55 with employer medical and 401K access. Enjoy the little things along the way. Today it was the realization that any challenge down the road can be met pretty well. There are no guarantees in life, but we feel very confident in our plan and are eager to get started.
Great conversation. Lots of good points and questions asked here! The biggest take-away I had from reading DWZ was optimizing for LIFE. Finances are on their way and are basically on auto-pilot/cruise-control and if anything, DWZ had me filled with more questions than answers afterwards. While maybe not the best book in some respects sure, any book that gets you thinking is time well spent reading. If your finances are on their way... great, you've optimized there... but what else have you done? - Decumulation can be extremely complicated, much more than saving/investing - what research have you done there? Even if you hit FI tomorrow magically, are you ready for that? What's your action plan? - Are you honest to yourself about your longevity when it comes to your FI number? Or are you risking life un-spent in the present, or the Go-Go years just to leave a mountain of a nest egg for your older self that will be content with less (because, consumption in retirement years does decrease year over year closely matching standard inflation). Yet, are you planning for the exact same level of consumption every year until 100, which while optimizing for conservatism and safety is not optimizing for today and some fulfilment tomorrow. After reading DWZ, I challenged myself to the time-bucketing exercise and I also found what Eric did... that some things ought to be pulled forward and weren't exclusive to RE. Yes, I'll include those in RE, but if you're optimizing you shouldn't put them off until then. I also get a ton of enjoyment/satisfaction from travel planning - though as I have seen with older retirees in my circle... even those that enjoy traveling, those days come to an end. - How much of your RE budget are you allocating in those much later, older years which is stealing from your ability to retire earlier or enjoy other things today? If you haven't built out different slow-go/no-go budgets for later years, is your FIRE number way higher than it needs to be? Conservative thinking can buy safety/security, yes - though at what point is it nonoptimal?
The biggest thing is not forget to live your life in the present. Take vacations including overseas trips, don’t be so frugal that you completely avoid having hobbies, avoid entertainment or avoid eating out and stop reading all the latest news on the markets. I actually have two levels of contributions for my investments for when I want to take vacations. I have cruise level contribution where I do 25% of my pay for when I wanna take those vacations, make a big purchase or need to get some maintenance done on the house. Then I have basically an all guns blazing level of 50% of my pay (there is still room for hobbies, eating out and entertainment even at this level). I alternate between the two depending on what’s happening.
Great video topic! I think it's super relatable to a lot of what we're going through. I find that watching FI content and checking my numbers helps keep me on the path. On the other hand, it's easy to get caught up in wanting to get there sooner because there is so much content about the numbers. I try to remind myself that I'm already on autopilot and be mindful of the present.
The messy middle has been an interesting journey. You both have shared so much and it has been very beneficial to me and the community. Thanks for your dedication and support. Celebrating accomplishments and what is getting us to FI is something I learned from you and your community. Thank you to both sides of Fi! And happy to see you both back! I appreciate all the effort as I know it’s not a lucrative endeavour but if you look at the community side of it, it’s golden.
We are past the messy middle as we will both be retired at 65 and 66 next year. I do have regrets about how we handled that earlier phase of life, however. We did invest what we could at that time, but we didn’t have an active budget for decades. We just lived month to month not really knowing how or where to allocate our resources because we never knew what would be left over at the end of the month. If we had been budgeting way back then, I know we would have invested more without deprivation because we would have been so much more intentional with what we had. Putting money into investments and liquid savings is important to be sure, but budgeting is just as important in my mind. It helps you make the best use of what you have to work with and it would have been fun to see the progress we were making towards our goals. Been budgeting for the last five years and even at this point in our lives, it has made an incredible difference in assuring we meet our goals but also has allowed us to feel more free with what we have because we knew where everything was supposed to go.
"it could be the messy end". Love it! This is a great video. I am lucky i don't hate my job. I tend to be more process than goal focused so I see FI as inevitable, I just cannot give you a precise date 😁 Some of what you talked about here is why I always have nothing but questions for the "FI by 35" crowd that are also talking about having a family. School, vacations, sports, braces, trips to the ER, maybe even bail money, are all very real possibilities. Skipping starbucks isn't gonna fill that gap. Lots of great stuff to unpack here. Thanks! I have one out of college and one just starting, so my wife and I are seriously starting to talk about the next steps. Getting through those big ticket items really helps bring the end into focus. Keep on keepin' on
the recent market really should have put everyone "back on track," but it just shows you shouldn't overreact to short term fluctuations. I just retired last year at 55 and have really enjoyed it so far. I know the first year is the easiest but not missing work so far, and plenty to do every day to keep me busy!
This is so me...I realized it was a problem when my response to what do you do for fun/in your spare time was: obsess over the FI of FIRE :-/ .. I am working on diversifying my non-work focus
I love this show. And I appreciate you guys. You can really tell by the chemistry and comfort level of the conversation that you guys are life long friends.
I think in this context, boring is sometimes a euphemism for powerless. The whole point of FI is to have control over one's life but once the plan is set, you're best off taking your hands off the wheel. I don't think this sits well with most FI folks. The irresistible urge to tinker may be less about optimization than it is about exerting some form of control. That conflict is angst-ridden and exhausting.
Jason, you might want to listen to 2 podcast interviews with Bill Perkins in lieu of (or in addition to) reading Die With Zero. I listened to him on All The Hacks and Choose FI and got a lot out of it (the mindset you and Eric discussed that seemed to resonate with you). I haven't read the book, but enjoyed hearing those discussions with Bill. This was a great ep, btw!
Glad you made this episode... I found myself wishing time away. I had to work on that. My solution was to reorganize my life a bit. First, I tried to make my work position a bit different to reduce stress. That was huge. Second, my husband and I created a bucket list of trips with our son. We make a conscious effort to have something fun to do every weekend (going to a play, going to a baseball game, meeting up with friends or hosting). Now I 30:09 don't feel like I am waiting..
Awesome show! Just like you, I didn't even know about the FIRE movement until the very end of my accumulation phase. That helped because I never had the feeling of "watching paint dry" in that messy middle phase. It also avoids stupid investment moves, like attempting market timing, get-rich-quick schemes, etc. It's best not to think about a specific target date (I know, easy for me to say now, haha!) and just enjoy the ride. Or risk frustration. I'm reminded of the Sandler movie "Remote Control." Sometimes the dull and boring phases in life have their charm, too, and you don't realize that until later. Smell the roses! Wishing you all the best and Happy 50th Birthdays!
Haven't listened to the episode yet but amazing timing for this topic as it is exactly what I've been thinking. Looking forward to the future but I need to be better at enjoying the now.
I love the conversation about the difficulty leaving the jobs that suck. I really feel that. My job sucks in a lot of ways, but I do have a good boss and some flexibility. Every other path I see looks like it will suck just as much or suck in other ways. Maybe my job just needs to suck a little bit more.
Good episode as usual. Im also glad I didnt find FIRE until a bit later. (Took off 2 years to travel). I find our sweet spot is a 25% savings rate. Had to recently adjust our order of operations away from ROTH due to our want of retiring abroad. Actually, thats a topic id love to hear your thoughts on.
How do you define "middle?" I gave thought to this on my own and would consider up to 25% of the FI number to be the beginning, 25% to 75% to be the middle, and 75% until FI to be the endgame. I would also consider "middle" to be the situation where your market gains (or losses) can exceed your annual contributions. For example, if your number is $1,000,000, and you earn $100,000 and save 50%, and have investments of $500,000. Anything greater than a 5% increase or decrease would exceed your contributions for that year. That's the point where it becomes messy, where you can work so hard and something out of your control can be bigger factor to progress or setback.
Totally, once you get the whole plan in place, for me 4 years ago. Ever since became somewhat obsessed. I'm hanging up my cleats in 7 months and man every day seems so long. I agree so glad i didn't discover this 15 years ago. However; same as you, I was making really good decisions 25 years ago but didn't have a specific plan per se. Last month (we went on vacation) I decided not to look at my CC (which i pay off every month) once a week...and it felt good. Perhaps it would help with the FIRE plan as well give yourself a break from looking...live today let the plan do the job... Just a thought.
I constantly tell my niece that she is doing things exactly right, She travels - A LOT. She is enjoying life. Luckily she has a good paying job so she can also save but she's living life while she is still healthy enough to enjoy it! One day, your knees hurt and they never go back to not hurting again. By then, it is too late! Could she retire earlier if she didn't travel? Yep! Would her life be as enjoyable? Definitely not.
Consider taking a year or two out mid career if you can. It’s insurance on dying young on the fire journey. I took 18 months out and slow travelled around the world. I found a job in a few days after starting to look, only now I’m working from home on a tropical island instead of sitting on a trading floor in a high cost location 14 hours a day. Currently OMY’ing… but just looking for an excuse to cut the cord. I’m glad I took those few years out (I’m 43 now, took the time out at 37). I could have just not worked after my last break, but it would have been lean. I was happy to go back to work to increase my budget, and bought land and built a nice villa - makes it easier to go back if you can link the income psychologically to a material lifestyle improvements - like building a new house or increasing your spending budget.
@@TwoSidesOfFI I mean, can you imagine getting close to FI and then dropping dead or coming down with some terminal medical condition while in the home stretch! Ouch. I see taking time out as insurance against that (in more ways than one - you can recharge your batteries, and if you do drop dead, at least you managed to have a few years away from the grind)!
8 years into my FI journey when I had to start over from close to zero I’m at 12.5x annual expenses. CAPE ratio is pretty high right now though so maybe I’m not really that far along when valuations come back to earth. It’s a slog now though. Been exciting until now but I realize the amount of control I have over the journey from savings rate alone is diminishing. A higher percentage is going to be up to compounding doing its work. I think the answer may be in either spending a bit more now on vacations and experiences to enjoy the journey a bit more or seeking employment that I won’t want to retire from and may allow more balance now. But I have the two more year syndrome before allowing myself the flexibility to consider a new position that may not pay as well.
Great topic and one that I am living through and do believe it is good to disconnect from the constant FIRE and portfolio research etc... I think one thing to remember though that it is important to at least 'schedule' a time to circle back to FIRE/portfolio given the nature of the market. The recent returns the past month or so has helped bring in our timeline by at least 12 months. We'll never know 100% where the market will be going but at least math is 'black and white' enough to help frame our retirement picture and illustrate that working 12 more months does not really move the success needle. Eric - Has your window changed with this market?
Swapped to a much more enjoyable job and went back to school. I'm much more about the FI than the RE. I can afford to not work for years. Why torment yourself at any point unless you have to? I'm always going to be productive in some capacity so I will always earn money. I don't have to sell my time for anything that I don't want to do.
Very true. FI is enabling the _freedom to choose_ how we spend our time. For some - like Jason, RE is the answer. For others, it's finding a new "next thing" (work or otherwise). And then there are those who elect to stay put at their current job, but do so knowing they are able to change that decision at any point forward. That's still freedom!
Hey guys, I'm having difficulty quantifying a defined pension and employer covered medical through the public sector. I feel that for a sizeable portion of us on this journey in the public sector even with a moderate income the medical and pension at say age 50 FI is definitely within reach possibly at a faster pace than say those with a giant income. Maybe a future show could touch on this? Cheers
I’m at the end of the messy middle. Thought I was 2 years from FI in summer 2021. Made a plan then to buckle down, maintain a 60% savings rate, and get over the FI line in 2023. Obviously hasn’t really worked out. Was pumping in $, only to see my balance decline. It was the same situation as 08/09, so I’ve been there before and know to stay the course. Perhaps the silver lining is that I ignore my balances much more during downturns and focus on living my life, rather than being obsessed with my NW everyday had we been in a bull market. Slightly tangential, but really not liking the return to office trends. I’m still fully remote, but feel like that could change on a dime. Really want FI to work on my terms, just not quite there yet.
The worst part of the FI culture is that it's pushed as a "you never will work again" as opposed to "you never have to work again" so the concept of the middle ground or nearing the end where you COULD stop but don't everyone sees you as a fool or a bad guy. To me FI has and always will be "doing whatever I want" so the extra $ will let me work jobs I want to do without financial concerns or maybe buy something expensive that I wouldn't otherwise feel comfortable doing. This video hit it perfectly: Projections are only that - projections and you shouldn't live to a projection at the sacrifice of life itself. The middle is way longer than most people expect - live it in the moment and crossing the finish line will feel a lot more impactful.
I have been keeping a spreadsheet of my 401k balance since 2012. I don't check the balance every day -- sometimes it's months between checks -- but it's super motivating seeing the gains on one graph.
2012 to date has been pretty much up up up, I hope you have the intestinal fortitude to withstand long periods of flat or falling stock prices. Because that will at some point come.
Another reason not to leave a miserable job is ageism - tough to get hired when you’re obviously near retirement (50’s), give up some time off, and learn new skills.
9:30 Eric, be careful of what you wish for. I used to think that way and joined a fair number of local finance related channels on Telegram. Today, I only even skim through a fraction of the slow moving channels (especially those with strict moderation). A lot of the bigger discussion forms/channels tend to devolve into churn (like what Jason said), or deviate considerably into off-topic and random chatter (driven by a few profligate posters).
I know I struggle with it but I would call it more of the "messy beginning" as I only in the last two years pivoted to a plan and I still have 18 years left of executing to perform. That said, my plan started very aggressively on savings and might even allow for me to let up rather than speed up as time goes so I am pushing myself fairly hard at the start here. If I get any raises outside of just like cost of living it will project me further along faster.
I currently resolved to invest no more than 30% in my 30s for the sake of my sanity. I'm saving cash for immediate larger purchases, but that's actually _not a slog_ because the ending is within a couple years. As for RE, I'll get there when I get there 😊
For me it was like losing those last five pounds. The diet I needed to do at with was too much deprivation, while my current maintenance diet is just the right mix of health and treats. So I decided it wasn't worth the misery of losing the last five. Both my body and my finances are "happy" at these more moderate rates of losing and saving.
My husband and I have reached FI number and plan to early retire in December. Our employer offers COBRA for 18 months. Did you do this? The costs are lower than what our financial planner estimates. Did you go to marketplace, Christian medi-share or other?
Jason here - Hi there, I'll share a few links below as we've covered this topic in a few different ways in the past. I was initially on COBRA but only because it made sense in my first RE year given the fact that I worked half a year and my income was too high for ACA to make sense. But in the two years since then I've gotten my plan on the CA ACA marketplace. ua-cam.com/video/2fGdfa1pFSg/v-deo.html ua-cam.com/video/ZGGy8Gtuncc/v-deo.html
I have a question about modelling retirement. The S&P500 as we know it today was introduced in 1957. Before this, the index methodology was different and did not track the top 500 countries in the US. Is it reasonable to use returns history prior to 1957, given that that those returns come from an index that doesn't reflect what you would invested in today? Should you start your simulations from 1957 instead?
The dataset that Nobel laureate Robert Schiller publishes (and Karsten + many others user) goes back to 1871. We're unaware of (and ill equipped to evaluate) alternative approaches that would be more appropriate, so we go with their methodology. It also seems to us that starting much later would create a very real recency bias in the data used for modeling. For more on Schiller's approach, see www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
From my understanding Jason retired from a job where he was an employee and not the owner/boss and Eric is his own boss. I can see why Jason would want to leave the workforce and make his time his own, but I'm not understanding why Eric is eager to stop working when he's his own boss and sets his own schedule and accepts jobs that can fit into his work/life balance. I always thought if you do something you love, you'll never work a day in your life.
Hey guys, loving this video and all your videos have been a real help as we finish our last few years of working before Fire. Quick question. Have you guys revealed your Fire number in any videos or posts? I ask as I like to see what others have saved to finance their post fire life. Would be good to know if your $1m saved so about $40k per year in retirement, or maybe fat fire with a lot more saved. Understand if you don’t want to say but it would be interesting for me and your viewers 😀👍. Keep up the great work. Cheers 🍻
It would be nice to find a way to bridge the conversation so we can move away from the absolute dollar value when explaining drops verses the number of shares and each share value dropping temporarily. We know the stock/fund price drops - but we are so fixed on total dollar value I just feel like it's the one misunderstanding that keeps my friends from investing.
I find a lot of those people that are miserable at their job will be miserable wherever they work. They have an unrealistic idea of how things should be. Often they are just as unhappy at subsequent jobs and the only really constant is themselves. For those people I find they are better suited at working for themselves rather than in a corporate structure
Quality of posts can certainly vary and we don't spend much time there these days. But some of the ones you might check out: r/FIRE r/Bogleheads r/financialindependence r/ChubbyFIRE (depending on your FI target) r/TwoSidesOfFI :)
Your life choices will impact FI, what size of your family, 1 child to 9 children. Who is the ruler of your life? Money or moments with your children on vacations. Penny pincher pitch pennies on to paper plates.
Do you struggle with the "messy middle"? What things have you found help you get through this period on the path to FI? Let us know in the comments
I am towards the end of my FI journey; planning to retire within the next 2-3 years.
What I am discovering is that I am very anxious when I am so close to the finish line. The 'boring middle' was to a degree, boring. But the 'anxious ending' is something I am contending with now.
Jason/Eric: curious if either of you experienced (or are experiencing) the 'anxious ending'?
@@Diomedes01 Jason here - 100% normal. irrespective of how many times we've done the math, how the large the buffers are that we've built into our plans, and how ready we are to be done with work, it's only human to be anxious. As with any big transition, it's natural to second-guess ourselves. So long as you're confident in your "why" as well as all the math, you're good. As I mention in this tip, one thing I'd recommend is to do the exercise of thinking about all the positive things you get from work in addition to compensation, as these will be gone when you stop work. Make sure you understand these and think about the other ways in which you'll find these in the future. It's both constructive in helping you think hard about work, as well as gaining confidence in your path forward. I wish you the best of luck!
I'm probably right at 50%. In the middle of cashing out my employers equity to get more 70/30 orientation. So not discouraged, but more optimistic which led me to the channel after researching cash out tax strategies in my current situation.
Binging the channel now, migrating to Discord after last episode note. Thanks for this channel! It's giving me confidence at 41, that I'll be there in a decade
I’m in that boring middle and have like 15 years to go and it’s SO boring. I have a super stressful job and would really like to quit and retire early but I can’t. That said this episode was really helpful because now I’m going to redo my investing strategy to allocate more money to having fun in the present because no day is promised. This will also help the journey be more enjoyable versus miserable for me 😊
sounds like a great outcome! wishing you all the best in all things
Speaking as someone who is on the non-fire retirement path (current age 56 and targeting age 62), I’ve obsessed about retirement for 20+ years. It was necessary for me to obsess in order to educate myself and take the needed steps to pay off debt. As a finance analyst, looking at the numbers often helps relax me and reassure me.
The big thing I did to stay positive and enjoy life now and be more present was to downsize and move to our waterfront retirement home last year (working remotely).
Thanks for sharing! These are excellent points. Best wishes to you in achieving all your goals
Deep in the messy middle. Kids, private school etc.. Still invest a lot but waiting game now.
My advice is build your life now. Travel now, don't wait to do it all. Do some of it right now.
Great advice! Best wishes to you
Very true. I'm in my early 50's now and have the structures set up and I'm ready to live a little more and not ratchet up the savings rate too high.
It's like, I am in love with my kids and cherish their every moment growing up, but I can't really become free from my desk job until they get older. A true love/hate scenario.
@@Travis12861 Kids>F.I. Having both=Paradise
This is exactly how I feel right now as well.
@@Travis12861 also approaching FI at 37 but no kids yet...I think about the decision nearly every day. It's impossible to run the counterfactual (I see Dakota saying Kids>FI but I think data suggests you can be just as happy without kids) but our "clock" is ticking...
It’s a perfect Sunday morning when I wake up to another 2 sides of FI video!
One thing that helped put market gyrations into perspective for me was big Ern’s SWR spreadsheet. It has a table that shows safe withdrawal rates given how much the market is down for its high. If you play around with it, you’ll see that the actual safe initial withdrawal amount doesn’t vary that much since logically you can slightly increase the percentage when the market is down. It’s really your contributions and reaching a new all time market high that move the needle
Thanks! And we agree 100!
I am in the messy middle and I love it. I also recently read Die With Zero. It really helped me to put into perspective what I was already thinking. I learned I was missing out on today worried about tomorrow and tommow is not promised. I am new to FIRE but have been living it long before it was a thing. I plan to retire at 55 and I am currently 46. I have been with the same company for 15 years. I have noticed that my number is on track and at this point I am really on cruise control. I made a conscious decision to just let it be and really start living. My girls are 10 and 12 and that gives me 8 years or less to make every memory I can. Since the investment decisions I made in my 20's make much more impact them the ones I do today, it is time to learn to cherish experiences over an extra % or 2 more in my portfolio. We will continue to keep our 25% savings rate. My wife and I decided we can spend every dime we make above that. Just got back from a cruise and have another one booked for October and again next July. We are planning several other trips as well around school. I was not enjoying life and like most of you was always looking at my number and time left. Work is work for me. Taking the time to really engage with my kids and enjoy them has made the FIRE journey fun again and work bearable. Remember not miss out on making a memory today thinking about all the memories you hope to make in the future. Good Luck to everyone.
“Enjoy the messy middle as it could be worse. It could be the messy end. “
Love the humor! We do need to laugh a little at the things that bother us. It makes it easier for sure.
Thanks! We agree
This is so on point. On cruise control - assuming no job hiccup- with FI 10 years away. Echo what these guys are saying.
thanks
I'm so glad to see you both back!
I find myself obsessively thinking about things that may be the last time they are happening. One day we ate Thanksgiving dinner together as a family for the last time and we had no idea. One day I met my friends to ride bikes for the last time and we had no idea. One day we went to the theme park as a family for the last time and we had no idea. I just need to do a better job in taking action to enjoy life even if it means a bit more time until retirement.
I feel that as the time draws nearer, we can become hyper focused on the numbers. For me, I know I need more "life" in my life because I spend WAY too much time on the finances. Oddly, I feel more comfortable when the market is down than when it is up. It's like buying things on sale versus spending more because of inflation.
I feel like I've swung too much in the other direction - when I was younger I was blissfully unaware and saved and spent. I didn't save as much as I should have but I was happy. Today I am hyper focused on the numbers and have a hard time spending on anything. I have a bit of an obsessive brain and now it's all about increasing my portfolio. The messy middle isn't for the faint of heart!
One thing I did this morning, though, was to pull a 10 year statement for my 401k plan. Over the last 10 years the increase in value has exceeded my contributions.
I think you guys should do some case study reviews ;)
Thank you! 🙏 And thanks so much for sharing. Truly great stuff
Celebrate the process is right. I used to fret at every milestone as we would hit it and then the market would turn and take it away again, but we eventually busted through it and moved to the next plateau. Getting so close to the jumping off point does bring clarity. We're within 18 months and are sure we are ready while just going through the motions until then. For us it's 55 with employer medical and 401K access. Enjoy the little things along the way. Today it was the realization that any challenge down the road can be met pretty well. There are no guarantees in life, but we feel very confident in our plan and are eager to get started.
Great conversation. Lots of good points and questions asked here! The biggest take-away I had from reading DWZ was optimizing for LIFE. Finances are on their way and are basically on auto-pilot/cruise-control and if anything, DWZ had me filled with more questions than answers afterwards. While maybe not the best book in some respects sure, any book that gets you thinking is time well spent reading. If your finances are on their way... great, you've optimized there... but what else have you done?
- Decumulation can be extremely complicated, much more than saving/investing - what research have you done there? Even if you hit FI tomorrow magically, are you ready for that? What's your action plan?
- Are you honest to yourself about your longevity when it comes to your FI number? Or are you risking life un-spent in the present, or the Go-Go years just to leave a mountain of a nest egg for your older self that will be content with less (because, consumption in retirement years does decrease year over year closely matching standard inflation). Yet, are you planning for the exact same level of consumption every year until 100, which while optimizing for conservatism and safety is not optimizing for today and some fulfilment tomorrow.
After reading DWZ, I challenged myself to the time-bucketing exercise and I also found what Eric did... that some things ought to be pulled forward and weren't exclusive to RE. Yes, I'll include those in RE, but if you're optimizing you shouldn't put them off until then. I also get a ton of enjoyment/satisfaction from travel planning - though as I have seen with older retirees in my circle... even those that enjoy traveling, those days come to an end.
- How much of your RE budget are you allocating in those much later, older years which is stealing from your ability to retire earlier or enjoy other things today? If you haven't built out different slow-go/no-go budgets for later years, is your FIRE number way higher than it needs to be? Conservative thinking can buy safety/security, yes - though at what point is it nonoptimal?
The biggest thing is not forget to live your life in the present. Take vacations including overseas trips, don’t be so frugal that you completely avoid having hobbies, avoid entertainment or avoid eating out and stop reading all the latest news on the markets.
I actually have two levels of contributions for my investments for when I want to take vacations. I have cruise level contribution where I do 25% of my pay for when I wanna take those vacations, make a big purchase or need to get some maintenance done on the house. Then I have basically an all guns blazing level of 50% of my pay (there is still room for hobbies, eating out and entertainment even at this level). I alternate between the two depending on what’s happening.
"Whoa we're half way there, whoa-oh livin' on a prayer!" Shout out FIRE.
Great video topic! I think it's super relatable to a lot of what we're going through. I find that watching FI content and checking my numbers helps keep me on the path. On the other hand, it's easy to get caught up in wanting to get there sooner because there is so much content about the numbers. I try to remind myself that I'm already on autopilot and be mindful of the present.
Thanks! So glad you liked it. You're quite right that there is a balance to be struck.
The messy middle has been an interesting journey. You both have shared so much and it has been very beneficial to me and the community. Thanks for your dedication and support. Celebrating accomplishments and what is getting us to FI is something I learned from you and your community. Thank you to both sides of Fi! And happy to see you both back! I appreciate all the effort as I know it’s not a lucrative endeavour but if you look at the community side of it, it’s golden.
We are past the messy middle as we will both be retired at 65 and 66 next year. I do have regrets about how we handled that earlier phase of life, however. We did invest what we could at that time, but we didn’t have an active budget for decades. We just lived month to month not really knowing how or where to allocate our resources because we never knew what would be left over at the end of the month. If we had been budgeting way back then, I know we would have invested more without deprivation because we would have been so much more intentional with what we had. Putting money into investments and liquid savings is important to be sure, but budgeting is just as important in my mind. It helps you make the best use of what you have to work with and it would have been fun to see the progress we were making towards our goals. Been budgeting for the last five years and even at this point in our lives, it has made an incredible difference in assuring we meet our goals but also has allowed us to feel more free with what we have because we knew where everything was supposed to go.
Thanks so much for sharing. These are great lessons learned. Best wishes to you!
Hey guys, I loved this video. It really spoke to the pre-retirement me awhile back.
Great! Glad to hear it
"it could be the messy end". Love it! This is a great video. I am lucky i don't hate my job. I tend to be more process than goal focused so I see FI as inevitable, I just cannot give you a precise date 😁
Some of what you talked about here is why I always have nothing but questions for the "FI by 35" crowd that are also talking about having a family. School, vacations, sports, braces, trips to the ER, maybe even bail money, are all very real possibilities. Skipping starbucks isn't gonna fill that gap.
Lots of great stuff to unpack here. Thanks!
I have one out of college and one just starting, so my wife and I are seriously starting to talk about the next steps. Getting through those big ticket items really helps bring the end into focus. Keep on keepin' on
the recent market really should have put everyone "back on track," but it just shows you shouldn't overreact to short term fluctuations. I just retired last year at 55 and have really enjoyed it so far. I know the first year is the easiest but not missing work so far, and plenty to do every day to keep me busy!
Thanks for sharing! Glad to hear that things are going well for you in year one! Please do keep us posted on how you're doing
My best take-away from this video is this idea of listing what I get from work that I will be missing.
Great! Definitely an important exercise and you may be surprised with some of your answers...
This is so me...I realized it was a problem when my response to what do you do for fun/in your spare time was: obsess over the FI of FIRE :-/ .. I am working on diversifying my non-work focus
Sounds like you had an important realization and are taking steps to move forward - nice work! Best wishes to you in all things
I love this show. And I appreciate you guys. You can really tell by the chemistry and comfort level of the conversation that you guys are life long friends.
🙏 thanks so much, Jonathan! We greatly appreciate the kind words and your support.
I think in this context, boring is sometimes a euphemism for powerless. The whole point of FI is to have control over one's life but once the plan is set, you're best off taking your hands off the wheel. I don't think this sits well with most FI folks. The irresistible urge to tinker may be less about optimization than it is about exerting some form of control. That conflict is angst-ridden and exhausting.
Well put! We suspect you're right about this.
great comment, i also think a lot of it is about control.
Hi Eric & Jason, it’s my 50th soon, Also planning to FIRE shortly too, so double celebrations!
Hello! Happy early birthday to you! Sounds like you’re in the FIRE homestretch, so congrats! Please keep us posted. Best wishes to you in all things
Jason, you might want to listen to 2 podcast interviews with Bill Perkins in lieu of (or in addition to) reading Die With Zero. I listened to him on All The Hacks and Choose FI and got a lot out of it (the mindset you and Eric discussed that seemed to resonate with you). I haven't read the book, but enjoyed hearing those discussions with Bill.
This was a great ep, btw!
Jason here - thanks for the tip!
Glad you made this episode... I found myself wishing time away. I had to work on that. My solution was to reorganize my life a bit. First, I tried to make my work position a bit different to reduce stress. That was huge. Second, my husband and I created a bucket list of trips with our son. We make a conscious effort to have something fun to do every weekend (going to a play, going to a baseball game, meeting up with friends or hosting). Now I 30:09 don't feel like I am waiting..
Glad to hear it! Sounds like you’ve done some really great things to support your journey. Best wishes to you!
Awesome show! Just like you, I didn't even know about the FIRE movement until the very end of my accumulation phase. That helped because I never had the feeling of "watching paint dry" in that messy middle phase. It also avoids stupid investment moves, like attempting market timing, get-rich-quick schemes, etc.
It's best not to think about a specific target date (I know, easy for me to say now, haha!) and just enjoy the ride. Or risk frustration. I'm reminded of the Sandler movie "Remote Control." Sometimes the dull and boring phases in life have their charm, too, and you don't realize that until later. Smell the roses! Wishing you all the best and Happy 50th Birthdays!
Haven't listened to the episode yet but amazing timing for this topic as it is exactly what I've been thinking. Looking forward to the future but I need to be better at enjoying the now.
I love the conversation about the difficulty leaving the jobs that suck. I really feel that. My job sucks in a lot of ways, but I do have a good boss and some flexibility. Every other path I see looks like it will suck just as much or suck in other ways. Maybe my job just needs to suck a little bit more.
The grass is always greener, right? Glad you liked it!
Good episode as usual. Im also glad I didnt find FIRE until a bit later. (Took off 2 years to travel). I find our sweet spot is a 25% savings rate. Had to recently adjust our order of operations away from ROTH due to our want of retiring abroad. Actually, thats a topic id love to hear your thoughts on.
Thanks!
Its amazing how much of this game is kinda tricking yourself to stay the course.
💯!
This was a great episode!
Thanks!
How do you define "middle?" I gave thought to this on my own and would consider up to 25% of the FI number to be the beginning, 25% to 75% to be the middle, and 75% until FI to be the endgame. I would also consider "middle" to be the situation where your market gains (or losses) can exceed your annual contributions. For example, if your number is $1,000,000, and you earn $100,000 and save 50%, and have investments of $500,000. Anything greater than a 5% increase or decrease would exceed your contributions for that year. That's the point where it becomes messy, where you can work so hard and something out of your control can be bigger factor to progress or setback.
Totally, once you get the whole plan in place, for me 4 years ago. Ever since became somewhat obsessed. I'm hanging up my cleats in 7 months and man every day seems so long. I agree so glad i didn't discover this 15 years ago. However; same as you, I was making really good decisions 25 years ago but didn't have a specific plan per se.
Last month (we went on vacation) I decided not to look at my CC (which i pay off every month) once a week...and it felt good. Perhaps it would help with the FIRE plan as well give yourself a break from looking...live today let the plan do the job... Just a thought.
Congrats! You're in the home stretch now! Please keep us posted + best wishes to you in all things
this topic was definitely needed. thank you!
I constantly tell my niece that she is doing things exactly right, She travels - A LOT. She is enjoying life. Luckily she has a good paying job so she can also save but she's living life while she is still healthy enough to enjoy it! One day, your knees hurt and they never go back to not hurting again. By then, it is too late! Could she retire earlier if she didn't travel? Yep! Would her life be as enjoyable? Definitely not.
Fritz Gilbert would definitely agree with that strategy. Thanks so much for sharing
Consider taking a year or two out mid career if you can. It’s insurance on dying young on the fire journey. I took 18 months out and slow travelled around the world. I found a job in a few days after starting to look, only now I’m working from home on a tropical island instead of sitting on a trading floor in a high cost location 14 hours a day. Currently OMY’ing… but just looking for an excuse to cut the cord. I’m glad I took those few years out (I’m 43 now, took the time out at 37). I could have just not worked after my last break, but it would have been lean. I was happy to go back to work to increase my budget, and bought land and built a nice villa - makes it easier to go back if you can link the income psychologically to a material lifestyle improvements - like building a new house or increasing your spending budget.
Solid advice for people to consider, thanks. A bit longer than Tim Ferris' "mini-retirements" but still very much on the theme. Best wishes to you
@@TwoSidesOfFI I mean, can you imagine getting close to FI and then dropping dead or coming down with some terminal medical condition while in the home stretch! Ouch. I see taking time out as insurance against that (in more ways than one - you can recharge your batteries, and if you do drop dead, at least you managed to have a few years away from the grind)!
8 years into my FI journey when I had to start over from close to zero I’m at 12.5x annual expenses. CAPE ratio is pretty high right now though so maybe I’m not really that far along when valuations come back to earth. It’s a slog now though. Been exciting until now but I realize the amount of control I have over the journey from savings rate alone is diminishing. A higher percentage is going to be up to compounding doing its work. I think the answer may be in either spending a bit more now on vacations and experiences to enjoy the journey a bit more or seeking employment that I won’t want to retire from and may allow more balance now. But I have the two more year syndrome before allowing myself the flexibility to consider a new position that may not pay as well.
Great topic and one that I am living through and do believe it is good to disconnect from the constant FIRE and portfolio research etc... I think one thing to remember though that it is important to at least 'schedule' a time to circle back to FIRE/portfolio given the nature of the market. The recent returns the past month or so has helped bring in our timeline by at least 12 months. We'll never know 100% where the market will be going but at least math is 'black and white' enough to help frame our retirement picture and illustrate that working 12 more months does not really move the success needle. Eric - Has your window changed with this market?
It’s not boring if you have things to focus on. Prep for side hustle, improve non analytical aspects of your life, as an example. 14:59
Swapped to a much more enjoyable job and went back to school. I'm much more about the FI than the RE. I can afford to not work for years. Why torment yourself at any point unless you have to? I'm always going to be productive in some capacity so I will always earn money. I don't have to sell my time for anything that I don't want to do.
Very true. FI is enabling the _freedom to choose_ how we spend our time. For some - like Jason, RE is the answer. For others, it's finding a new "next thing" (work or otherwise). And then there are those who elect to stay put at their current job, but do so knowing they are able to change that decision at any point forward. That's still freedom!
great video, well done as always!!....I could have done without the dot chart reminder that are filling up quickly! haha
thanks! yeah, it's pretty striking, isn't it? it's a great read though. perspective is everything!
Hey guys, I'm having difficulty quantifying a defined pension and employer covered medical through the public sector. I feel that for a sizeable portion of us on this journey in the public sector even with a moderate income the medical and pension at say age 50 FI is definitely within reach possibly at a faster pace than say those with a giant income. Maybe a future show could touch on this?
Cheers
I’m at the end of the messy middle. Thought I was 2 years from FI in summer 2021. Made a plan then to buckle down, maintain a 60% savings rate, and get over the FI line in 2023. Obviously hasn’t really worked out. Was pumping in $, only to see my balance decline. It was the same situation as 08/09, so I’ve been there before and know to stay the course. Perhaps the silver lining is that I ignore my balances much more during downturns and focus on living my life, rather than being obsessed with my NW everyday had we been in a bull market.
Slightly tangential, but really not liking the return to office trends. I’m still fully remote, but feel like that could change on a dime. Really want FI to work on my terms, just not quite there yet.
The worst part of the FI culture is that it's pushed as a "you never will work again" as opposed to "you never have to work again" so the concept of the middle ground or nearing the end where you COULD stop but don't everyone sees you as a fool or a bad guy. To me FI has and always will be "doing whatever I want" so the extra $ will let me work jobs I want to do without financial concerns or maybe buy something expensive that I wouldn't otherwise feel comfortable doing.
This video hit it perfectly: Projections are only that - projections and you shouldn't live to a projection at the sacrifice of life itself. The middle is way longer than most people expect - live it in the moment and crossing the finish line will feel a lot more impactful.
Precisely. It’s the *freedom* to choose what kind of / whether to work. And that answer can change over time, due to the freedom one has achieved.
I have been keeping a spreadsheet of my 401k balance since 2012. I don't check the balance every day -- sometimes it's months between checks -- but it's super motivating seeing the gains on one graph.
Great! Sounds like you've got something that is working well for you
2012 to date has been pretty much up up up, I hope you have the intestinal fortitude to withstand long periods of flat or falling stock prices. Because that will at some point come.
Another reason not to leave a miserable job is ageism - tough to get hired when you’re obviously near retirement (50’s), give up some time off, and learn new skills.
Good point. Ageism is a real thing and can be pretty scary. Thanks for sharing + best wishes to you
9:30 Eric, be careful of what you wish for. I used to think that way and joined a fair number of local finance related channels on Telegram. Today, I only even skim through a fraction of the slow moving channels (especially those with strict moderation). A lot of the bigger discussion forms/channels tend to devolve into churn (like what Jason said), or deviate considerably into off-topic and random chatter (driven by a few profligate posters).
“The main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing.”
I'm a simple man: I see a new 2SOFI video, I click on in and 3 seconds in I like and comment 😂
Funny- I do the same thing! :) thanks for your support! -Jason
I know I struggle with it but I would call it more of the "messy beginning" as I only in the last two years pivoted to a plan and I still have 18 years left of executing to perform. That said, my plan started very aggressively on savings and might even allow for me to let up rather than speed up as time goes so I am pushing myself fairly hard at the start here. If I get any raises outside of just like cost of living it will project me further along faster.
Best wishes to you, Brian
I currently resolved to invest no more than 30% in my 30s for the sake of my sanity. I'm saving cash for immediate larger purchases, but that's actually _not a slog_ because the ending is within a couple years. As for RE, I'll get there when I get there 😊
Sounds like you've got a great plan that will work for you. Best wishes!
For me it was like losing those last five pounds. The diet I needed to do at with was too much deprivation, while my current maintenance diet is just the right mix of health and treats. So I decided it wasn't worth the misery of losing the last five.
Both my body and my finances are "happy" at these more moderate rates of losing and saving.
My husband and I have reached FI number and plan to early retire in December. Our employer offers COBRA for 18 months. Did you do this? The costs are lower than what our financial planner estimates. Did you go to marketplace, Christian medi-share or other?
Jason here - Hi there, I'll share a few links below as we've covered this topic in a few different ways in the past. I was initially on COBRA but only because it made sense in my first RE year given the fact that I worked half a year and my income was too high for ACA to make sense. But in the two years since then I've gotten my plan on the CA ACA marketplace.
ua-cam.com/video/2fGdfa1pFSg/v-deo.html
ua-cam.com/video/ZGGy8Gtuncc/v-deo.html
@@TwoSidesOfFI That’s exactly what I was thinking. Thanks for the links!
Present Self: “I'm not liking this part.” Future Self: “If you saw what I see, you would.”😊
Love that!
I have a question about modelling retirement. The S&P500 as we know it today was introduced in 1957. Before this, the index methodology was different and did not track the top 500 countries in the US. Is it reasonable to use returns history prior to 1957, given that that those returns come from an index that doesn't reflect what you would invested in today? Should you start your simulations from 1957 instead?
The dataset that Nobel laureate Robert Schiller publishes (and Karsten + many others user) goes back to 1871. We're unaware of (and ill equipped to evaluate) alternative approaches that would be more appropriate, so we go with their methodology. It also seems to us that starting much later would create a very real recency bias in the data used for modeling. For more on Schiller's approach, see www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
From my understanding Jason retired from a job where he was an employee and not the owner/boss and Eric is his own boss. I can see why Jason would want to leave the workforce and make his time his own, but I'm not understanding why Eric is eager to stop working when he's his own boss and sets his own schedule and accepts jobs that can fit into his work/life balance. I always thought if you do something you love, you'll never work a day in your life.
Eric here, FI is our goal, RE is optional! My wife has a say too, and running a business can be an all-consuming endeavor if you let it.
❤❤❤
Hey wake up, new two sides of fi just dropped.
Boom!
Hey guys, loving this video and all your videos have been a real help as we finish our last few years of working before Fire. Quick question. Have you guys revealed your Fire number in any videos or posts? I ask as I like to see what others have saved to finance their post fire life. Would be good to know if your $1m saved so about $40k per year in retirement, or maybe fat fire with a lot more saved. Understand if you don’t want to say but it would be interesting for me and your viewers 😀👍.
Keep up the great work. Cheers 🍻
Cheers, we discuss our numbers here: You Asked, We Answered. FIRE Q&A
ua-cam.com/video/n811DYwEdrs/v-deo.html
It would be nice to find a way to bridge the conversation so we can move away from the absolute dollar value when explaining drops verses the number of shares and each share value dropping temporarily. We know the stock/fund price drops - but we are so fixed on total dollar value I just feel like it's the one misunderstanding that keeps my friends from investing.
I find a lot of those people that are miserable at their job will be miserable wherever they work. They have an unrealistic idea of how things should be. Often they are just as unhappy at subsequent jobs and the only really constant is themselves. For those people I find they are better suited at working for themselves rather than in a corporate structure
Can you give some suggestions for Reddit subs discussing FI that you’ve found useful?
Quality of posts can certainly vary and we don't spend much time there these days. But some of the ones you might check out:
r/FIRE
r/Bogleheads
r/financialindependence
r/ChubbyFIRE (depending on your FI target)
r/TwoSidesOfFI :)
"The fire movement selects for weirdo's" ---- Ouch... Why you do that to me?
We’re all in this together! The Money Guy Show talks about financial mutants, right? :)
Your life choices will impact FI, what size of your family, 1 child to 9 children. Who is the ruler of your life? Money or moments with your children on vacations. Penny pincher pitch pennies on to paper plates.