Living in Britain I know I am getting ripped off on a daily basis in all areas of life. I try to avoid spending on anything and invest abroad, avoiding UK investments at all costs.
Same here. We've been in decline for decades. Political corruption and short term thinking from Westminster. Brexit has been a multiplier for the negatives. I've invested offshore for a while time. No point in doubling down throwing money away on the UK.
Multiply yourself by a few millions, and you will understand why the economy looks what it is, and why you end up getting "ripped off". Self fulfilling prophecy
@@stevencutts6314The question is though - who’s buying this property ? There are plenty of wealthy people across the world who enjoy speculating on British property(more of a racing certainty actually) and they probably don’t pay any U.K. tax. If there’s one market which should be tightly regulated , it’s housing. And even places such as Hong Kong and Singapore have lots of public housing because they understand the importance of doing so.
I think the opposite is actually true, and that the UK’s downturn has just begun. The London stock exchange losing more listing, falling investment, Poor government after poor government, terrible management of inflation, the rental crisis, house price to median income disparity, the countries clamping down on crypto, and the impeding drop in globalisation will also further hurt the UK’s economy. The UK is going to get a lot worse over the next 5+ years in my option. Also, real inflation is still above 2%.
I agree, this is just the start of a long decline into a standard of living that eventually may well look like that of somewhere in the Balkans, this has a long way to go yet.
Spot on! The BOE has underwriiten way too much in the way of debt bonds to Ukraine which are all going to be defaulted on. The UK is currently the 3rd largest buyer of US treasuries in a time of global dedollarisation and the US is passing much of the purchase funding for this under the table and Trump will probably stop this. The UK is in serious trouble.
One good thing implemented by Rishi Sunak when he was Chancellor was implementing a full expensing allowance into the budget - ie: companies can gain significant tax reliefs for capital expenditure. It allows companies to write off the cost of investment in one go. Under full expensing, for every pound a company invests, their taxes are cut by up to 25p. So props to him on that.
With the World's Highest Tuition Fees it’s unlikely that the UK will be able to form enough engineers to reverse the low trend of productivity and R&D.
I was just about to say the same thing. It was interesting to see that on the list of UK strengths. It definitely was for a while, because of tax breaks, but the strikes ruined that.
@@bobbobbins4877 Odd my parents never mention those hard times, but they were teachers in secure work. They've often said, there were so many jobs you could finish at one job the same day and walk straight into another, also on the same day and heard this elsewhere. So it wasn't hard for everyone in the 70s, until Thatcher came a long.
@@paulking2039, the 1970s were defined by high inflation, strikes, riots, frequent power cuts. That was the environment that allowed Thatcher to come to power.
Australia also has this problem. Aging population and no more bulk billed facilites. It costs around 100 dollars, yet we brag that America is terrible (meanwhile American's actaully have it good). Even Americans have cheap houses. They have no idea how good they have it compared to their Australian and British counterparts who are still slaves to westminster.
You should do a poll to see how many people are enthusiastic about the Uk's prospects. I doubt anybody who isn't a liar or an idiot thinks this country has any future.
That’s true for sure, however the situation was exactly the same in the 1970’s when the U.K. was virtually written off. However the 80’s and 90’s saw a reversal of that with optimism at a new high so who knows what will,happen? The self inflicted disastrous lockdowns and Brexit hit the U.K. very hard.
@@paullewis2413AI and robots will bring another 80s and 90s for sure. This pessimism is unfounded. Ai could grow the economy twice or three times as fast.
There's absolutely NO WAY the UK will recover from the mess it's in just by relying on the service sector. It needs manufacturing and well paid jobs. Not burger flippers and spreadsheet fillers.
Spreadsheet fillers haha. Clip art wizards, the true advocates of Comic Sans will fight back for their right to earn money using a 19 inch CRT VGA monitor the size of your average combi-boiler.
I think the UK is transitioning from inflation to deflation. You only have to look at our ever increasing vacant high streets to see this. People have less money to spend, products are becoming increasingly expensive to produce, and to buy. The UK is in big trouble.
IT, Finance / Insurance, Law, Health, Sales, Marketing, Engineering, logistics, Security, Plumbing, Carpentry, Electrical work etc are all service sector jobs. Service sector jobs tend to be better paid than industrial jobs. The person making your trainers in a factory in China is probably making less than you are flipping burgers.
My uncle is an alocoholic and has high diabetes and obesity, IF, he was to stop drinking and take ozempic then there is a huge potential of him increasing hsi life quality... just like the UK and it's potential.
Men and testosterone and gumption are necessary, but have been removed from many parts of society. These demographics just don't work to grow economies.
@DewiSant-o3y that’s true, in an unequal economy which I believe is growing in the UK. But a richer economy benefits everyone in some way. It’s better than a poorer economy
@Psybx-r4g that’s totally true I understand that and I agree with that statement. It’s much harder to make money (I’d say nearly impossible) nowadays if you’re starting from nothing. The irony of being wealthy is it’s easier to get wealthier. Ridiculous tbh but then again it’s purely logical but yes you’re very right
@@allykhan8594 Well it depends, if they continue borrowing at the rate they’re growing then the debt is simply growing so we’re not any better off (then again there’s other benefits like more people in employment which benefits more people). Whereas, if there’s lower borrowing while the economy is growing (ideally through smart and sensible investment) then the economy grows and the significance of the debt shrinks due to inflation and the fact the economy has grown so the loan-value ratio shrinks. So imagine: UK GDP is worth £3 trillion and it has £2.7 trillion debt. It has a surplus of £300 billion If the government borrowed £100 billion (bringing the debt to £2.8 trillion) and the economy grew £300 billion (bringing the GDP to £3.3 trillion) then you can see the surplus is not £500 billion. So the economy is healthier because the surplus is bigger even though the debt is higher. Also if inflation occurs say 10%, then the £2.8 trillion loses its value by 10% because the debt doesn’t change but the value of the debt decreases due to the fact everything else is getting more expensive. It’s a double whammy too because inflation means higher prices which visually looks like we’re making more money so our GDP looks higher (at least at first before people’s spending habits change). Correct me if I’m wrong I’m not an economist but I think debt over time in a growing economy or inflation shrinks because the value of that debt depreciates as a direct result of inflation and because there’s larger equity in the economy so the economy is more able to handle its liabilities. I may be looking at this from a very simple perspective I’m not an economist.
@David-bi6lf How can you say that? Why would I stay here when half my income goes to tax? I sick of it. I pay so much and I get so little back in public services. I'm done. The top 10% of earners pay 66% of income tax. Be bloody careful with your hatred of the rich. They will leave, happily. Personally I'm going to Poland.
Taxing education is very strange. Didn't Starmer get a free ride paid by wealthy parents at his schools ? I thought private education saved UK taxpayers money ? The UK tax system and VAT are too high and going higher going forward.
@@gavinspiby8304 the effect of Brown swapping gold for interest bearing US short dated securities has, as you would expect, been VASTLY exaggerated by Tory owned media.
Our productivity is horrific compared to spain and italy considering most offices I have been in have had educated people from those countries who were desperate to leave.
Thank you for the nuanced perspective! I do find a lot of the negative reviews to be highly anecdotal. It's refreshing to hear the other side. Nobody knows the future.
There's literally tv channels, politicians, and media outlets who spend every moment talking about it. Don't expect to hear the same lazy populist anti immigration scapegoating from actual experts who understand its disingenuous to present immigration as the cause of britians economic issues. Remove every migrant and the problems would be worse not better.
@@CollabcreatemarketingMigration is not Binary of either good or bad. The migration over the last two decades has been devastating to the nation, the numbers are just too large. Houses and infrastructure are beyond full capacity. That said a good proportion of the migrants bring skills and have added to the UK.
@@Collabcreatemarketing Immigration is the central point if you are talking about GDP per capital, especially as data has shown many have been a net drain on the economy.
@@Collabcreatemarketing remove immigration and house prices go down, GP appointments easier to get, less public spending needed, more investment by the government freed up, less tax burden, jobs pay much more
Nice to see a positive video about the UK. Even though it faces difficult challenges I believe the UK will to better in the next 5 years and the average citizen will be better off. But I think the rate of improve will still lag other countries
Growth is not a measure of profitability. If a government borrowed money to dig holes and borrowed again to fill them in you would call that growth. Britain desperately needs fiscal surplus
Exactly. Without covid/Ukraine, UK had almost eliminated Brown's crippling legacy £160B deficit left in 2010. By now we would have been back into large surpluses.....and paying off the debt. And the Tories winning again by a massive landslide.
@@xtc2v ...and now we will go backwards under these socialist clowns running up colossal debts on ruinous eco spending. So very tragic but morons never learn.
Britain has always produced far more than it's fair share of innovators and entrepreneurs; it's in our blood. And British Entrepreneurs and Innovators will continue to kick ass.... ...just not in Britain.
It’s bizarre that they literally just made a separate category for people who aren’t employable. But aren’t included in the unemployment numbers. Business doesn’t want them, so instead of having an embarrassing headline for the government we just cut the employment number by having a group called something else.
@@Lighthawk1986 suspect there's also people that can work but don't want to or believe they can't because we've disenpowered them so much in our 'parenting' style of governance in the West. Millions and millions who could work but don't for various reasons that aren't included in 'unemployed' it's crazy. We've also got more students too... More 18 year old still in education not in employment. I'm not certain the country has seen any benefit to more higher education, would love to be wrong on that though.
They aren't captured by the unemployment statistic because it's redundant and would skew the data negatively as the people not looking for work will always be unemployed, this would include people who can't work as well. This stat is meant to capture job availability so if there's a higher percentage of people looking for work but yet unemployed, this means that businesses are not hiring people therefore not growing and potentially shrinking, this implies that there are less people who could potentially contribute to taxes leading to a slower economy growth plus an increase to welfare spending. A lower percentage would obviously indicate the opposite but too low could mean an increase in inflation due to wage increase pressures.
@@mikester4896 but it's not showing that if it doesn't include all the people who aren't looking for work. This is exactly my point. If there were 100 people in the economy and 5 were unemployed, then 1 got a job but 5 more went off not working but weren't captured in the unemployed stats then the stats would still say that there were now only 4 unemployed so suggest that, as you say, business has increased the number of people in employment. But we know there is now an additional 5 people out of the workforce off the country even if the 'unemployed' number has reduced. It's meaningless for any measure than to count the number of people actively looking for work which on its own tells you nothing about the state of the economy.
A country without manufacturing power, highly motivated and disciplined working class people, will eventually end up like India. Never underestimate the importance of creating essential goods and infrastructure by your own hands.
under capitalism we are all losers eventually. Have you gambled, only the house wins, that is the owners of capital. That's how it ends. What's the solution? Do not play, move on to something else, something that benefits you rather than make you gamble what you have.
A layman’s conjecture perhaps, no need to ask for his resume. I study economics and economists ask this to literally every other social scientists as if we’ve figured out the universe. Imagine if the economists asked this and dismissed John Nash.
Let’s be real, we really have almost zero prospects as a nation. We’re still living off some decades old reputation as a once great empire. Also, our culture is disappearing with every passing year, which reduces the pull factor from a tourism standpoint.
I have followed UK politics since the 19's. What I see is an accelerating down tour. As the German Kanzler Scholts said:"The UK is going downhill without brakes". He was new in the job, and I did not see it, as he did. But now, a couple of years later, I am not so sure. Dumping the European workforce was a mega mistake, they will never come back. Most EU countries lack workforce, excerpt Spain. Even Romania, that only 10 years ago, was a very miserable place to be in, is closing in on full employment and Poland is close to be a real powerhouse. So I guess there are no skilled workers for the UK. How to start a recovery without a workforce and a EU going hard on the UK service industry? I am at the stage, where I want to see it, before I believe it. But, then again, maybe.
@DewiSant-o3y But all of the major European countries are fairly recent in their current borders eg Louis XIV extended France in the 1600s into what was Italian land and Germany dates from 1870 under Bismarck.The notion of Britain as a unified entity sits with its Empire from the 1700s so lasted 250 years. England by itself would be viable as an economic entity as it has 54m people and most of the services sector with the largest airports and ports.Not sure how Wales etc would fare though alone on tourism and farming.
The issue with liberal economics is that it assumes every one else is operating the same. They aren't, we are moving away from a globalised world economy. The US is retrenching, it is energy independent with good demographics, so doesn't need to engage so much with the world. The BRICS aren't exactly liberals. Focussing on a small number of activities leaves us open to greater volatility, the financial crisis demonstrated that. Many are left behind which is why there is alot of cultural depression (we aren't simply economic units). We also have a security of supply chains which showed up through COVID, if you don't make essentials, you have to keep on the nice side of those who do. Another issue is; necessity is the mother of inventions. Why should business innovate to improve productivity if you can import cheap labour that'll work long hours.
Erm… All that is listed are things that MIGHT improve UK’s predicament IF they are implemented. These things have not even been implemented yet so… UK could still have a long way to fall. So I have just returned to UK for a small stint and the level of brokenness is simply heartbreaking. The train from Manchester airport left 20 mins late due to a technical fault, I was overcharged by Trainline for my ticket, the lift door in the hotel malfunctions, there are potholes all over the roads, roads were flooded after modest rain. All of these things will need to be fixed before UK can be upgraded! China is steaming ahead and accounts for over 50% of the industrial robots installed in 2023. Why on earth would automation help UK if it’s just a drop in the ocean compare to other nations? And yes, there WILL soon be a lot of external competition from Asia and Africa. And without fail, UK will follow whatever US instruct it to do no matter how destructive. Everything listed in the video is no better than “if I won the lottery” pipe dreams.
The UK has many entrepreneurs but unlike those in the US they are not supported by the government to grow their business to a global giant like in US and China. Instead in UK the large corporations here ensure they never grow because they would lose out. Most good British companies are owned by foreigners who have no interest in helping the UK economy, they are only interested in profit, private equity and floating. ISG the largest prison builder in UK which collapsed recently is a prime example, the government could easily have stopped that deal (prisons are of national importance to deter/prevent crime) and so many other companies with national interest like it have been allowed to be sold off like utility companies and so on. If these foreign owned companies do well the money gets sucked out of our country but if they fail they liquidate. Can the government please wake up and do their jobs stop treating the British public as complete fools!
Don’t worry your tax will go up to Adobe any spare cash and given they are going to hammer landlords do you think they are going to not pass that on? Especially as there are less rental properties because landlords are cashing in before capital gains is hammered. Well done labour.
@DewiSant-o3y Plain wrong. South Korea has the most robots per capita out of all countries and their unemployment rate is lower than the UK's. Same for Japan.
The decline won't be over until you stop rewarding those who don't want to work and stop punishing those who are working. Some economic data won't change it, when everyone can see the decline in their quality of life over the last 10 years and that decline is not slowing down.
It's sad how difficult things have become in this recessive economy. I was wondering how to utilize some money I had. I used some of it for e-commerce business, but that sank. I'm thinking of how to protect my $150K-worth stock portfolio from decline, but haven't figured which way to go.
Very difficult indeed, but when the going gets tough, the tough gets going. You have to learn and handle finances properly. you should hire a CFP to help you diversify your assets to include ETFs/index funds/mutual funds and stocks of companies with consistent cash flows. Don't go for penny stocks.
Opting for a brokerage Adviser is currently the optimal approach for navigating the market, particularly for those nearing retirement. I've been consulting with a coach for a while, and my portfolio has surged by 300% since 2022
How can one participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and I'm eager to see it come to fruition. Who is the driving force behind your success?
Love the channel Tejvan. I totally agree with analysts that planning reform, more specifically the inability to scale infrastructure is the largest bottleneck to the UK economy. Brits are a proud people. We aren't very open to new modes of operation, even when current methods fail.
I really don't understand why Governments can't get a grip on all of these issues and turns things around in a relatively short period of time. There are a number of issues which if addressed may not solve all of this but make a big difference. Immigration of people with little or no skills is massively out of control and needs to be reduced by 90% immediately which will reduce pressure on housing, cost of rents, reduce poverty and force companies to be more productive (why invest in machinery when you can employ 6 min wage workers), reduce some of the pressures on the NHS. Next Energy prices are stupidly high, no type of manufacturing (or households for that matter) are ever going to flourish in the country without these being reduced dramatically. The technology for Zero Emissions mini Nuclear powerplants is now there, invest in these immediately with the intention of producing so much energy prices reduce dramatically (potentially export some of the excess to Europe). North Sea oil is still very valuable and will be years to come, expand it, reduce the taxes on the oil companies (from the current circa 75%) and use the tax revenues to invest energy infrastructure and paying down the national debt, then eventually use it to re-build economically viable infrastructure in the UK. 75% of University Course are a scam, let the Uni's charge what they want on these but on the 25% that are valuable e.g. Nursing, Medicine, Engineering, Software Engineering, Accountancy, Electronics etc (we all know what are and aren't) make them close to free then for those degrees link industry and professional qualifications to those degrees so the graduates don't finish Uni then spend the next 10 years studying for yet more exams on top (may help/encourage the right people to start having children again). Next, encouraging manufacturing firms and oil & gas refineries to base themselves in the UK in places like the North East (perhaps near the new Freeports) they can take advantage of lower energy prices. Next for god sake sort out the tax system once and for all, making it simpler and try to reduce Corporation tax for Key Industries which we want to encourage more of and which employ lots of skilled people.Stop the ridiculous funding of Woke projects and Woke University Research which is a scandal yet to hit, stop telling young men that they are monsters and actually encourage them to be productive and give them access to where they can learn meaningful skills. Lastly, actually do something with Brexit. Currently it has been a failure (a lot of which was caused by Covid) because little has actually been done by government to actually try something new or different. taxpayers money needs to stop being used on funding politically biased 'Quangos' . Foreign Aid needs to be halved immediately and government spending needs to be focused on real tangible things and on ridiculous abstract philosophies like 'Diversity is our strength' etc etc. None of this insurmountable or even especially hard and can be in place in 5 years.
There are, however, things that the UK is doing very well and will continue: high level of crime, illegal immigration, high level of deprivation, reliance on state benefits, and the shady cash-based economy.
I like your videos but its all about "potential because we're so bad". I cant see the uk improving. I really can't. The management of the country is suicidal if not self savotaging and there's no real interest from the people which is understandable given how demoralized thet have become. So my conclusion is is the same as it was: thats it's game over for the UK.
He may need to start doing economics videos on other countries, as the UK is done for. Only so much "positive thoughts" you can give on an ailing country and economy
At the end of the video, I do evaluate these 7 arguments - some of them are 'hopeful' - perhaps even flimsy. There are also more problems I didn't have time to go into, e.g. higher taxes, weak growth in Europe e.t.c. But, it's a welcome change to try and see some glimmers of progress.
You pointed UK should not compete against rising powers like china in manufacturing and instead sought to lead in services. But what if those same rising powers also decided to move up the value chain and capture both manufacturing and services? For example China has also a growing Video Games (Ex. Black Myth Wukong) and Film Industry (The wandering Earth). In Whatever sectors they lack there government would also try to catch up.
The only way the UK will grow is by ditching technocracy - central planning has never worked. It's not just the bloated public sector that's the problem. The other issue is excessive state regulation of the private sector.
China is also state regulated economy they are still with all their problem are growing faster (5% annual growth + lot's of innovation in areas like clean energy)
The Uk is leading the green transition. This is a cruse because its destroyed our growth. Its also a blessing because we have paid alread 50%75% of the cost of this investment.
I love your optimism, unfortunately we are in a globally synchronised recession, GDI is in decline, Ukraine defaulted on the 15 billion the uk gave. Bank of England is doing QE again and had to guarantee the bonds. The black hole of 22 billion is probably triple that. Austerity and War incoming
The reason you are stripped of your productivity by the State and left "poor" is so that they can buy votes through Treasury Largesse. This is further compounded by mass immigration to keep labour cheap. As a result you spend most of your income on the cost of housing. Birth rates ave been below replacement levels (2.1) for a generation, so ask yourself, Why is there not a surplus of houses? Like the Palestinians in the 1940's, your Birth Right is being sold to immigrants.
While the uncertainty of the brexit process is more of less gone, it has been replaced by the certainty that in a lot of cases, the UK is not a good place to invest.
Great video! I believe the UK will recover, and I'm truly positive about it. Regarding your comments about Venezuela, we experienced a 1 trillion percent inflation. You can't imagine what it's like to survive under those conditions. As a high-skilled worker, my Venezuelan salary and savings were converted to nothing in hours by the government removing 14 zeros from our currency. It was a hyperinflation scenario. Living in the UK has made me realise how different things are here compared to Venezuela. Hopefully, leaving short-term government decisions behind can help us recover and improve.
Sorry to be depressing but if we wanted to stop our downfall we should have acted way earlier when we still had our industry, mainly by being way harsher on foreign companies (specifically China/Russia) who on average play less fair and f*ck us up more compared to British companies (e.g buying houses and selling them for massively inflated prices meaning nobody can buy a house). Now that globalisation and deindustrialisation, far and away the 2 main causes of our decline is complete (you can thank thatcher for that by selling off everything to foreign companies) there isn’t really much we can do
Between the cost of leaving and the the cost of living, this is all good but until this doesn’t translate into higher living standards for the masses, the doom and gloom vibes of the last 15 years will still reverberate throughout society
I'm not optimistic about the economy, I think the budget will completely stuff any growth, were in a downward sprial along with the rest of europe, bad management, lies, wef, net zero is about to kill off any manufacturing we have, labour suck.
Remember that old song… ‘…the rich get richer and the poor get evicted … in the meantime, in between time, ain’t we got fun… not much money, ooo but honey…ain’t we got fun…’
That is good news Patrick. In the Great Depression, people often went to the movies, (if they could afford to) so they could forget about their troubles. So I guess the more things fall apart, and people continue to lose their jobs, the more the British movie industry can expand. Lovely. Still, all the same, another excellent video. Thanks
Same, I met Elizabeth stark last year for the first time at a conference in Wilshire, after then my Life has changed for good.God bless Elizabeth stark
If the UK could catch up, based on what exactly, its like saying if North Korea just got its act together then it would be in the G7... If the UK increased its automation, sure same as any other country that's not doing well economically. Maybe we do not have much automation because we have very little manufacturing industry and the two correlate? Service sector is not the saviour, we know this already, the country got poorer the more it pivoted towards a service economy. It needs to actually manufacture goods at home, but cannot because its too expensive to do so because of lack of cheap energy and raw materials available domestically. Inflation is below 2% again same as many countries but the damage is done, those prices remain high and there is still an increase in them. Lets not gaslight here, prices are high and will not be going down unless we see deflation, which we know we will not. UK unemployment rate is low, because we do not factor in the millions who are on long term benefits and are not actively seeking work, the real unemployment rate is at least double what is published. No more self inflicted damage. I would say its a bit late for that, Brexit put up barriers with your largest and geographically closest trading bloc, there is no current solution to this nor does there seem to be any interest in having one. The Taxes are about to go up in the next budget, people will be getting even poorer and this means less money in the economy as the UK government uses that money to pay off external debts. All in all I think its time this dude just faced reality, you live in a fast declining country where the wealth is drying up and where the average person has seen a massive decline in personal wealth and earnings as well as living standards in recent years. Sure it may record a little bit of economic growth in current years, but it is going to be overtaken fast by other countries like Poland that have not shot themselves in the face and tried to blame it on others.
I actually enjoyed this topic it was nice to hear something positive for a change would it be possible to a similar video about Canada on your other channel. I am not sure if it makes sense from a views perspective but in Canada we have not heard much good news lately
There is ZERO chance of any of the things you want happening with the current Labour Government , you would be nuts to invest in the UK just so they can tax all the profits away. Why did Astra Zenica build their new £400milillion factory in Ireland, 12% tax compared to our 25% and that's before Labour increase it.
Here's a question, Ireland has a huge cost of living crisis that is driving young often highly educated people abroad. You have a choice, raise tax rates to solve the social problems but risk driving away all these companies that are only there for the cheap taxes or do nothing and see your future continue to go abroad. What do you choose ?
This video is theoretically true but I don't know if it'll actually happen. Sometimes I don't want corrupt politicians to rule over a time of economic growth because then people would say "at least the economy and national income grew" but corruption is all we're going to get from now on and we might as well not want to stagnate. If I continue to live in this country I'll get scammed out of all the necessary goods and services for living or at least get rubbish service if it's for free, like the absolute state of the NHS. I don't expect any leniency with prices or inflation when I get older, like little to no consumer surplus.
Rules Rules Rules , paperworks paperworks paperworks, from building a house to getting driving license .. the ease of doing business is tough in uk , the govt should make things easy n smooth like US or UAE .. so the turnover time would be 2 weeks..
...we seem to be good at opening coffee shops. Not convinced by your services argument - you can't sell NHS carers to China. France builds things because its a huge country with lots of space..
Totally agree, quite surprised he does not realise that a manufacturing economy is essential for the balance of payments and to have real jobs. How is the UK not a world leader in ship building, the history it has and being an island nation would make it a massive player in this, but instead it lost all its potential.
Venezuela is an outlier. Whether you think it the government's policies or US led global isolation towards the country, neither and certainly not the latter is not going to be reflected in the Brexit with the limited exception of the Brexit move. There are certain impediments that Britain has forced on itself that good policy would deal with: restrictive planning laws, investment in non-wealth creating sectors (land and housing) instead of wealth creating (production), interest rates below inflation, which boost unproductive investment and lower real pay, spiralling home prices that deter family formation, selling the high street and firms to US private equity (the UK stock market is so diminished the past 20 years), not planning energy policy for the medium to long term (we need nuclear). Reverse a lot of this, and results will surely improve even if after a painful re-adjustment.
All I can say is I’m getting out of here next year for sure, still later than I’d like, but the UK is only going to go downhill from here on. The sooner you get out, the less damage you’ll have to endure in the long run.
You forgot a very significant problem in the economy and a blight on our lives. 4 Million Immigrants accessing Welfare and Housing benefits. If these unproductive migrants were not here, GDP per person would be 10% higher and national debt would be lower.
Services do not add as much value as manufacturing. In addition wages from the service industry are widely worse than those from skilled labour roles created by manufacturing industries, therefore do nothing to address the wealth inequality that is at the heart if the UKs economic woes. One cannot replace the other simply because it is on the rise while the other is in decline
If products are being made at a loss, manufacturing adds no value whatsoever, and certainly cannot provide good jobs for anyone. Higher value manufacturing generally means small volumes, and low manufacturing costs require high levels of automation, meaning low levels of employment. The world in which manufacturing industry meant a healthy supply of well paid jobs are gone - as VW are finding out.
Japan is the classic case of an advanced democratic economy getting stuck. No need to mention despotic kleptocracies like Venezuela, which is not a good comparator. As you mention, there are number of contributors to growth, and some are hard to see in macro figures. Classic cases include quality of the infrastructure, weight of bureaucracy, and ease of raising capital. One thing that does gives me hope for infrastructure is that our taxes are low in comparison to our peers on the continent, so we have greater potential for increased funding. But increased taxation is a toxic topic in this country, as the comments below demonstrate. We don't do bureaucracy well either. We can't distinguish what is important. When we soften rules, we allow builders to build fire traps and financiers to blow up the financial system. Meanwhile there's complex and costly rules on things that aren't so important. All businessmen will tell you how difficult it is to get finance in this country: our financiers have too many easy options to make money than investing in real business.
Into the cooking pot, I would also throw in: Education for management. Be it small or large business, we seem to have poor management. An improvement in both the image and training of apprenticeships. Reform of the public sector - are we getting value and quality for money? I don't believe so. Along with robotics, to improve productivity, we need to embrace AI. Change in attitude from wealth creation, and obsession with GDP, to a better quality of life. Healthier and happier employees, are more productive, tax the NHS less, and be better at innovation and creativity - key to the UK service sector. Fingers crossed 🤞 😂
IMHO, the UK is very far from its original glory, especially after brexit. It reminds more of the Admiral Nelson, who is 100 years old, with grey cubic hair and 1 inch of erection, unable to control the Falklands Islands, never mind his own economy. The commonwealth El-Dorados like Canada, Australia, New-Zealand etc are now successfully lost forever.
This is why I emigrated 20+ years ago. The UK really hasn't got anything - coal is no longer "fashionable", others can manufacture better product for lower cost, and reliance on the "Service Sector" is hawking back to the Reagonomics era - the UK film industry is frankly insignificant (and will remain so), and there are plenty of other producers of computer games, which are, after all, very much a discretionary spend item. As for the energy problems, nuclear power plants are very long term, construction taking a decade or so, and after the NIMBY debacle with HS2, it isn't going to happen. "No money" for essential services, yet 3 billion pounds a year for "Project Ukraine" (which is the main reason why UK gas costs are so high). Look at almost everywhere "outside London". Dereliction, uncontrolled fly tipping, a large (and expanding) homeless underclass, and a massive increase in Food Banks. Education has been fully commoditised, with degrees being costly (and frankly sub-standard in comparison to those awarded by the Universities of competing economies, particularly China), financial reward for even considering a higher degree is non-existent (and this dates back for many decades - I well remember the "Save British Science" campaign when Thatcher cut education spending). This has led to a shortage of Science graduates, so no research, so no future development. As for Venezuela, their financial woes are ENTIRELY due to the continued US meddling and attempts to "regime change" their government, to allow US exploitation.
If you want productivity, you need to make it worth while for people to work hard. You need to make it easy for investment etc Our governments has made it difficult to do everything! The reason that the film industry has grown, is because they specifically set out to make it easy to do, tax breaks, government help and encouragement etc. we won’t get that under Labour.
0:42 I wouldn't say that Australia and the UK are similar economies. Australia is a massive country with a very small population and an abundance of valuable natural resources. The UK, on the other hand, is only slightly larger than the Australian state of Victoria, but its population is more than 2.5 times bigger than Australia's. Also, if we exclude North Sea oil and gas, the UK doesn't have significant natural resources.
Stop saying cut interest rates. It's a short term fix which causes long term problems. Historically, they aren't high, so don't lower them much at all.
A 1% increase the the GDP per capita number means that GDP per capita is declining, as we've had more than a 1% growth in population in the past year. It's a very nasty economy out there. Any young ambitious person is advised to seek your living abroad. Note that a 'living' these days is anything north of £50, given house prices. And try to earn your living in a low tax state, otherwise fiscal drag will steal everything you worked for.
All this talk of £8k better off is nonsense and I’ll tell you why… We’ve seen better days economically and things materially still weren’t better back then. Even when we were thousands of pounds better off per household nothing was different. Having more money seemingly changes nothing, the government finds a way to waste it and you never see any tangible benefits.
UK and the EU are in terminal decline as industries in Europe migrate to where their markets are..in Asia. What does UK offer better competitively than EU Eastern Europe for instance? With UK involvement in external wars, many foreign investors / countries see the UK as hostile and a US tool. UK is showing social instability. UK taxation is high. UK has no natural resources and UK energy costs are high. UK is far from the huge Asian markets, with logistical issues such as the Red Sea. UK banking and trade will inevitably move to BRICS where the best banking profits exist. UK gets involved with sanctions which backfire.
Even if the slump was ending, Rachel Thieves would strangle it off next week anyway But I'm in the other camp, I think we ain't seen nothing yet. We're on the cusp of a very bad depression.
Living in Britain I know I am getting ripped off on a daily basis in all areas of life. I try to avoid spending on anything and invest abroad, avoiding UK investments at all costs.
Same
Same here. We've been in decline for decades. Political corruption and short term thinking from Westminster. Brexit has been a multiplier for the negatives. I've invested offshore for a while time. No point in doubling down throwing money away on the UK.
a strategy which if many copy would probably worsen the UKs economic situation
same, I started investing earlier this year at 20 and just decided to choose the US market.
Multiply yourself by a few millions, and you will understand why the economy looks what it is, and why you end up getting "ripped off". Self fulfilling prophecy
The UK specializes in selling property to anyone who will buy it while promising to not build much more.
British liberal capitalism is a going out of business sale. Everything must go!
Ask the Indian subcontinent about the last 500 years or so.
Everywhere you look there are new housing projects new roads and new railways going up
@@stevencutts6314The question is though - who’s buying this property ? There are plenty of wealthy people across the world who enjoy speculating on British property(more of a racing certainty actually) and they probably don’t pay any U.K. tax. If there’s one market which should be tightly regulated , it’s housing. And even places such as Hong Kong and Singapore have lots of public housing because they understand the importance of doing so.
Why you think they let so much BNO Hong Kong Chinese in?
@@trueseeker262 😀😀
I think the opposite is actually true, and that the UK’s downturn has just begun. The London stock exchange losing more listing, falling investment, Poor government after poor government, terrible management of inflation, the rental crisis, house price to median income disparity, the countries clamping down on crypto, and the impeding drop in globalisation will also further hurt the UK’s economy. The UK is going to get a lot worse over the next 5+ years in my option.
Also, real inflation is still above 2%.
I agree, this is just the start of a long decline into a standard of living that eventually may well look like that of somewhere in the Balkans, this has a long way to go yet.
Plus, my basic living expenses (council tax, transport, food, bills, etc.) increased way more than official inflation rates 😟
Yes, indeed. It will get much worse. The worst is yet to come.
Spot on! The BOE has underwriiten way too much in the way of debt bonds to Ukraine which are all going to be defaulted on. The UK is currently the 3rd largest buyer of US treasuries in a time of global dedollarisation and the US is passing much of the purchase funding for this under the table and Trump will probably stop this. The UK is in serious trouble.
Nonsense. AI and robots will change the landscape forever. Stop thinking like a Boomer and look at the emerging technology around you.
One good thing implemented by Rishi Sunak when he was Chancellor was implementing a full expensing allowance into the budget - ie: companies can gain significant tax reliefs for capital expenditure. It allows companies to write off the cost of investment in one go.
Under full expensing, for every pound a company invests, their taxes are cut by up to 25p. So props to him on that.
Or you could just require companies spend at least about 30% of their net profits made in the UK on reinvestment, and not lose tax revenue.
@@DruidHark Starmer's tax plans will stop companies investing.
My employer was completely unaware of this, we desperately needed investment to just remain competitive, we received none....
@@DruidHark So if they are being drained by tax where do the reinvestment funds come from?
@@cleanhit777whoever does your accounts is terrible then…
With the World's Highest Tuition Fees it’s unlikely that the UK will be able to form enough engineers to reverse the low trend of productivity and R&D.
You don’t need engineers here to increase productivity. You can import the advice and improve that way.
It doesn't have the world's highest tuition fees, stop making things up.
It’s called R&D for a reason. You can’t buy it…
Have you ever seen a Canadian or US university? We pay peanuts by comparison
@renaissanceman419 average debt coming out of uni is higher in the uk than the us, dont let a couple big names in the US fool you
I know lots of people in the UK film and TV industry and it has never been tougher, unfortunately.
I was just about to say the same thing. It was interesting to see that on the list of UK strengths. It definitely was for a while, because of tax breaks, but the strikes ruined that.
They must be very young, because I distinctly remember things being much more difficult in the 1970s and 80s.
@@bobbobbins4877 Odd my parents never mention those hard times, but they were teachers in secure work.
They've often said, there were so many jobs you could finish at one job the same day and walk straight into another, also on the same day and heard this elsewhere.
So it wasn't hard for everyone in the 70s, until Thatcher came a long.
@@paulking2039, the 1970s were defined by high inflation, strikes, riots, frequent power cuts. That was the environment that allowed Thatcher to come to power.
One of the clues that the UK is in decline is the disturbing difficult in trying to arrange a simple doctor's appointment.
Liam Fox is available.
Australia also has this problem. Aging population and no more bulk billed facilites. It costs around 100 dollars, yet we brag that America is terrible (meanwhile American's actaully have it good). Even Americans have cheap houses. They have no idea how good they have it compared to their Australian and British counterparts who are still slaves to westminster.
You should do a poll to see how many people are enthusiastic about the Uk's prospects. I doubt anybody who isn't a liar or an idiot thinks this country has any future.
That’s true for sure, however the situation was exactly the same in the 1970’s when the U.K. was virtually written off. However the 80’s and 90’s saw a reversal of that with optimism at a new high so who knows what will,happen? The self inflicted disastrous lockdowns and Brexit hit the U.K. very hard.
@@paullewis2413AI and robots will bring another 80s and 90s for sure. This pessimism is unfounded. Ai could grow the economy twice or three times as fast.
There's absolutely NO WAY the UK will recover from the mess it's in just by relying on the service sector. It needs manufacturing and well paid jobs.
Not burger flippers and spreadsheet fillers.
Spreadsheet fillers haha. Clip art wizards, the true advocates of Comic Sans will fight back for their right to earn money using a 19 inch CRT VGA monitor the size of your average combi-boiler.
I think the UK is transitioning from inflation to deflation. You only have to look at our ever increasing vacant high streets to see this. People have less money to spend, products are becoming increasingly expensive to produce, and to buy. The UK is in big trouble.
IT, Finance / Insurance, Law, Health, Sales, Marketing, Engineering, logistics, Security, Plumbing, Carpentry, Electrical work etc are all service sector jobs. Service sector jobs tend to be better paid than industrial jobs. The person making your trainers in a factory in China is probably making less than you are flipping burgers.
My uncle is an alocoholic and has high diabetes and obesity, IF, he was to stop drinking and take ozempic then there is a huge potential of him increasing hsi life quality... just like the UK and it's potential.
It's not an ageist or fat shaming issue there's an increasing number of young males 18-25 that are NEET in all developed countries.
@@SteveMoore1969 what might be the reason
Because the pay for the jobs they can get leaves them no better off than they would be on benifits ?
@@manhoosnick
@@manhoosnick pay people for the task not their age, minimum wage should be the same an 18 year adult should be paid the same as 26year old
Men and testosterone and gumption are necessary, but have been removed from many parts of society.
These demographics just don't work to grow economies.
It’ll be a relief to see the UK economy grow again
Grow with debt, meaning the debt itself is the growth??
@DewiSant-o3y that’s true, in an unequal economy which I believe is growing in the UK. But a richer economy benefits everyone in some way. It’s better than a poorer economy
@Psybx-r4g that’s totally true I understand that and I agree with that statement. It’s much harder to make money (I’d say nearly impossible) nowadays if you’re starting from nothing. The irony of being wealthy is it’s easier to get wealthier. Ridiculous tbh but then again it’s purely logical but yes you’re very right
@@allykhan8594 Well it depends, if they continue borrowing at the rate they’re growing then the debt is simply growing so we’re not any better off (then again there’s other benefits like more people in employment which benefits more people). Whereas, if there’s lower borrowing while the economy is growing (ideally through smart and sensible investment) then the economy grows and the significance of the debt shrinks due to inflation and the fact the economy has grown so the loan-value ratio shrinks.
So imagine:
UK GDP is worth £3 trillion and it has £2.7 trillion debt. It has a surplus of £300 billion
If the government borrowed £100 billion (bringing the debt to £2.8 trillion) and the economy grew £300 billion (bringing the GDP to £3.3 trillion) then you can see the surplus is not £500 billion. So the economy is healthier because the surplus is bigger even though the debt is higher.
Also if inflation occurs say 10%, then the £2.8 trillion loses its value by 10% because the debt doesn’t change but the value of the debt decreases due to the fact everything else is getting more expensive. It’s a double whammy too because inflation means higher prices which visually looks like we’re making more money so our GDP looks higher (at least at first before people’s spending habits change).
Correct me if I’m wrong I’m not an economist but I think debt over time in a growing economy or inflation shrinks because the value of that debt depreciates as a direct result of inflation and because there’s larger equity in the economy so the economy is more able to handle its liabilities.
I may be looking at this from a very simple perspective I’m not an economist.
@Psybx-r4g There is some trickle down in this.
The UK is being Taxed into economic decline.
Where did you study economics and to what level?
This is complete tripe. The majority of the countries in this video compare the UK have higher tax burdens than the UK. Taxation is not the cause.
Something the Tories inflicted on us.
@David-bi6lf
How can you say that?
Why would I stay here when half my income goes to tax? I sick of it.
I pay so much and I get so little back in public services.
I'm done. The top 10% of earners pay 66% of income tax. Be bloody careful with your hatred of the rich. They will leave, happily. Personally I'm going to Poland.
Taxing education is very strange. Didn't Starmer get a free ride paid by wealthy parents at his schools ?
I thought private education saved UK taxpayers money ?
The UK tax system and VAT are too high and going higher going forward.
Very depressing....no chance of a bounce back with Labour just more tax squeezing and misery
Conservatives & labour both got us in this mess we are bankrupt, the END?
@@donaldmacdougall4679Both? This is all on the Tories.
@@EdwardHohenheim
Labour started it with Blair open borders
brown sold off the gold for a pittance over £2000 an ounce now
@@gavinspiby8304then the tories gave us Brexit and really screwed the country don’t blame others for tory lies and manipulation
@@gavinspiby8304 the effect of Brown swapping gold for interest bearing US short dated securities has, as you would expect, been VASTLY exaggerated by Tory owned media.
He-he. No chance mate. GB is a basket case.
It's over
Our productivity is horrific compared to spain and italy considering most offices I have been in have had educated people from those countries who were desperate to leave.
Office staff (Not office workers) don't produce anything they're just drones and bean counters.
Thank you for the nuanced perspective! I do find a lot of the negative reviews to be highly anecdotal. It's refreshing to hear the other side. Nobody knows the future.
The UK right now is defined by one issue and of course it isn't mentioned - how do you get better unless you are willing to even acknowledge reality?
There's literally tv channels, politicians, and media outlets who spend every moment talking about it.
Don't expect to hear the same lazy populist anti immigration scapegoating from actual experts who understand its disingenuous to present immigration as the cause of britians economic issues.
Remove every migrant and the problems would be worse not better.
@@CollabcreatemarketingMigration is not Binary of either good or bad. The migration over the last two decades has been devastating to the nation, the numbers are just too large. Houses and infrastructure are beyond full capacity.
That said a good proportion of the migrants bring skills and have added to the UK.
@@Collabcreatemarketing Immigration is the central point if you are talking about GDP per capital, especially as data has shown many have been a net drain on the economy.
@@suewood8538 can you share that?
@@Collabcreatemarketing remove immigration and house prices go down, GP appointments easier to get, less public spending needed, more investment by the government freed up, less tax burden, jobs pay much more
Nice to see a positive video about the UK. Even though it faces difficult challenges I believe the UK will to better in the next 5 years and the average citizen will be better off. But I think the rate of improve will still lag other countries
Growth is not a measure of profitability. If a government borrowed money to dig holes and borrowed again to fill them in you would call that growth. Britain desperately needs fiscal surplus
Exactly. Without covid/Ukraine, UK had almost eliminated Brown's crippling legacy £160B deficit left in 2010.
By now we would have been back into large surpluses.....and paying off the debt.
And the Tories winning again by a massive landslide.
@@gregjones-x8c Gordon Brown spoke of "prudence" at the start but it is not in the nature of those on the left to be anything other than spendthrifts
@@xtc2v ...and now we will go backwards under these socialist clowns running up colossal debts on ruinous eco spending.
So very tragic but morons never learn.
@@xtc2v ....and with HS2 going to Crewe, Reeves Black Hole is now a whacking £80 billion....all her own work.
Britain has always produced far more than it's fair share of innovators and entrepreneurs; it's in our blood. And British Entrepreneurs and Innovators will continue to kick ass....
...just not in Britain.
Just a quick one. Uk is not at record low unemployment... Plenty who aren't looking for work aren't captured by that narrow stat.
It’s bizarre that they literally just made a separate category for people who aren’t employable. But aren’t included in the unemployment numbers. Business doesn’t want them, so instead of having an embarrassing headline for the government we just cut the employment number by having a group called something else.
@@Lighthawk1986 suspect there's also people that can work but don't want to or believe they can't because we've disenpowered them so much in our 'parenting' style of governance in the West. Millions and millions who could work but don't for various reasons that aren't included in 'unemployed' it's crazy. We've also got more students too... More 18 year old still in education not in employment. I'm not certain the country has seen any benefit to more higher education, would love to be wrong on that though.
They aren't captured by the unemployment statistic because it's redundant and would skew the data negatively as the people not looking for work will always be unemployed, this would include people who can't work as well.
This stat is meant to capture job availability so if there's a higher percentage of people looking for work but yet unemployed, this means that businesses are not hiring people therefore not growing and potentially shrinking, this implies that there are less people who could potentially contribute to taxes leading to a slower economy growth plus an increase to welfare spending. A lower percentage would obviously indicate the opposite but too low could mean an increase in inflation due to wage increase pressures.
@@mikester4896 but it's not showing that if it doesn't include all the people who aren't looking for work. This is exactly my point. If there were 100 people in the economy and 5 were unemployed, then 1 got a job but 5 more went off not working but weren't captured in the unemployed stats then the stats would still say that there were now only 4 unemployed so suggest that, as you say, business has increased the number of people in employment. But we know there is now an additional 5 people out of the workforce off the country even if the 'unemployed' number has reduced. It's meaningless for any measure than to count the number of people actively looking for work which on its own tells you nothing about the state of the economy.
Yes, unemployed is a term for those seeking work. Those who don't seek work and have 'checked out' aren't considered unemployed.
A country without manufacturing power, highly motivated and disciplined working class people, will eventually end up like India.
Never underestimate the importance of creating essential goods and infrastructure by your own hands.
under capitalism we are all losers eventually. Have you gambled, only the house wins, that is the owners of capital. That's how it ends. What's the solution? Do not play, move on to something else, something that benefits you rather than make you gamble what you have.
UK does pretty well on the manufacturing front, especially per capita. World leaders in aviation manufacturing for example
@@baratoplata7050And the 'arms industry'.
Where did you study economics and to what level?
A layman’s conjecture perhaps, no need to ask for his resume. I study economics and economists ask this to literally every other social scientists as if we’ve figured out the universe. Imagine if the economists asked this and dismissed John Nash.
Let’s be real, we really have almost zero prospects as a nation. We’re still living off some decades old reputation as a once great empire. Also, our culture is disappearing with every passing year, which reduces the pull factor from a tourism standpoint.
Not if it gets the status of Saudi of the West, then tourism will boom again
I have followed UK politics since the 19's. What I see is an accelerating down tour. As the German Kanzler Scholts said:"The UK is going downhill without brakes". He was new in the job, and I did not see it, as he did. But now, a couple of years later, I am not so sure.
Dumping the European workforce was a mega mistake, they will never come back. Most EU countries lack workforce, excerpt Spain. Even Romania, that only 10 years ago, was a very miserable place to be in, is closing in on full employment and Poland is close to be a real powerhouse. So I guess there are no skilled workers for the UK.
How to start a recovery without a workforce and a EU going hard on the UK service industry?
I am at the stage, where I want to see it, before I believe it. But, then again, maybe.
@DewiSant-o3y But all of the major European countries are fairly recent in their current borders eg Louis XIV extended France in the 1600s into what was Italian land and Germany dates from 1870 under Bismarck.The notion of Britain as a unified entity sits with its Empire from the 1700s so lasted 250 years. England by itself would be viable as an economic entity as it has 54m people and most of the services sector with the largest airports and ports.Not sure how Wales etc would fare though alone on tourism and farming.
Most companies now have offices in those countries.
Blair created a chavy underclass, 5 million unemployed including disabled....that's why he waved in millions of unemployed, cheap EU labour in 2004.
After the last 14 years I'm going to be a skeptic and hope to be proven wrong.
Thanks! These videos explains more positive views. And we can watch how the government performs to match it. Or we have to drop them in near future.
Drop them for who? the other party that also f*cked it all up? You realise you have no actual choice?
Fantastic analysis
Thank you Sir
The issue with liberal economics is that it assumes every one else is operating the same. They aren't, we are moving away from a globalised world economy. The US is retrenching, it is energy independent with good demographics, so doesn't need to engage so much with the world. The BRICS aren't exactly liberals. Focussing on a small number of activities leaves us open to greater volatility, the financial crisis demonstrated that. Many are left behind which is why there is alot of cultural depression (we aren't simply economic units). We also have a security of supply chains which showed up through COVID, if you don't make essentials, you have to keep on the nice side of those who do. Another issue is; necessity is the mother of inventions. Why should business innovate to improve productivity if you can import cheap labour that'll work long hours.
The US is a massive importer and is completely dependent on the rest of the world. It even imports a lot of its food now.
Erm… All that is listed are things that MIGHT improve UK’s predicament IF they are implemented. These things have not even been implemented yet so… UK could still have a long way to fall.
So I have just returned to UK for a small stint and the level of brokenness is simply heartbreaking. The train from Manchester airport left 20 mins late due to a technical fault, I was overcharged by Trainline for my ticket, the lift door in the hotel malfunctions, there are potholes all over the roads, roads were flooded after modest rain. All of these things will need to be fixed before UK can be upgraded!
China is steaming ahead and accounts for over 50% of the industrial robots installed in 2023. Why on earth would automation help UK if it’s just a drop in the ocean compare to other nations?
And yes, there WILL soon be a lot of external competition from Asia and Africa. And without fail, UK will follow whatever US instruct it to do no matter how destructive.
Everything listed in the video is no better than “if I won the lottery” pipe dreams.
Wow, some positives for a change!
You are a speaker for Labour mad economics
The UK has many entrepreneurs but unlike those in the US they are not supported by the government to grow their business to a global giant like in US and China. Instead in UK the large corporations here ensure they never grow because they would lose out. Most good British companies are owned by foreigners who have no interest in helping the UK economy, they are only interested in profit, private equity and floating. ISG the largest prison builder in UK which collapsed recently is a prime example, the government could easily have stopped that deal (prisons are of national importance to deter/prevent crime) and so many other companies with national interest like it have been allowed to be sold off like utility companies and so on. If these foreign owned companies do well the money gets sucked out of our country but if they fail they liquidate. Can the government please wake up and do their jobs stop treating the British public as complete fools!
No growth until rents start coming down and freeing spending money.
Don’t worry your tax will go up to Adobe any spare cash and given they are going to hammer landlords do you think they are going to not pass that on? Especially as there are less rental properties because landlords are cashing in before capital gains is hammered.
Well done labour.
How do you get rents down? Planning reform and investment.
Would really help if you can provide links to your sources please
I am optimistic about the future.
You’re right the way out of this mess is automation. Robots could be the answer and we need catch up with the rest of world.
With birthrates declining around the world, automation is about the only hope we have to be able to see a pension!
Yeah! And pay more welfare fir economic inactivity.
@DewiSant-o3y tax the robots then let people be creative and personable, all things AI and automation are bad at.
@DewiSant-o3y Plain wrong. South Korea has the most robots per capita out of all countries and their unemployment rate is lower than the UK's. Same for Japan.
@DewiSant-o3y Just don't import a million poor people every year and we won't have this issue. Brits aren't working these kinds of jobs
The decline won't be over until you stop rewarding those who don't want to work and stop punishing those who are working. Some economic data won't change it, when everyone can see the decline in their quality of life over the last 10 years and that decline is not slowing down.
Hear hear.
It's sad how difficult things have become in this recessive economy. I was wondering how to utilize some money I had. I used some of it for e-commerce business, but that sank. I'm thinking of how to protect my $150K-worth stock portfolio from decline, but haven't figured which way to go.
Very difficult indeed, but when the going gets tough, the tough gets going. You have to learn and handle finances properly. you should hire a CFP to help you diversify your assets to include ETFs/index funds/mutual funds and stocks of companies with consistent cash flows. Don't go for penny stocks.
Opting for a brokerage Adviser is currently the optimal approach for navigating the market, particularly for those nearing retirement. I've been consulting with a coach for a while, and my portfolio has surged by 300% since 2022
How can one participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and I'm eager to see it come to fruition. Who is the driving force behind your success?
Stacy Lynn Staples is a hot topic even among the finance elite in America. She's just a search away(on the net)
I just curiously looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.
Great video! Nice to see some positives regarding the UK :)
Yes it’s nice to live in an imaginary dreamworld for a few minutes before returning back to harsh reality 🙂
This was a really good video thank you.
This man needs to run our economy
Love the channel Tejvan.
I totally agree with analysts that planning reform, more specifically the inability to scale infrastructure is the largest bottleneck to the UK economy.
Brits are a proud people. We aren't very open to new modes of operation, even when current methods fail.
I really don't understand why Governments can't get a grip on all of these issues and turns things around in a relatively short period of time. There are a number of issues which if addressed may not solve all of this but make a big difference. Immigration of people with little or no skills is massively out of control and needs to be reduced by 90% immediately which will reduce pressure on housing, cost of rents, reduce poverty and force companies to be more productive (why invest in machinery when you can employ 6 min wage workers), reduce some of the pressures on the NHS. Next Energy prices are stupidly high, no type of manufacturing (or households for that matter) are ever going to flourish in the country without these being reduced dramatically. The technology for Zero Emissions mini Nuclear powerplants is now there, invest in these immediately with the intention of producing so much energy prices reduce dramatically (potentially export some of the excess to Europe). North Sea oil is still very valuable and will be years to come, expand it, reduce the taxes on the oil companies (from the current circa 75%) and use the tax revenues to invest energy infrastructure and paying down the national debt, then eventually use it to re-build economically viable infrastructure in the UK. 75% of University Course are a scam, let the Uni's charge what they want on these but on the 25% that are valuable e.g. Nursing, Medicine, Engineering, Software Engineering, Accountancy, Electronics etc (we all know what are and aren't) make them close to free then for those degrees link industry and professional qualifications to those degrees so the graduates don't finish Uni then spend the next 10 years studying for yet more exams on top (may help/encourage the right people to start having children again). Next, encouraging manufacturing firms and oil & gas refineries to base themselves in the UK in places like the North East (perhaps near the new Freeports) they can take advantage of lower energy prices. Next for god sake sort out the tax system once and for all, making it simpler and try to reduce Corporation tax for Key Industries which we want to encourage more of and which employ lots of skilled people.Stop the ridiculous funding of Woke projects and Woke University Research which is a scandal yet to hit, stop telling young men that they are monsters and actually encourage them to be productive and give them access to where they can learn meaningful skills. Lastly, actually do something with Brexit. Currently it has been a failure (a lot of which was caused by Covid) because little has actually been done by government to actually try something new or different. taxpayers money needs to stop being used on funding politically biased 'Quangos' . Foreign Aid needs to be halved immediately and government spending needs to be focused on real tangible things and on ridiculous abstract philosophies like 'Diversity is our strength' etc etc. None of this insurmountable or even especially hard and can be in place in 5 years.
There are, however, things that the UK is doing very well and will continue: high level of crime, illegal immigration, high level of deprivation, reliance on state benefits, and the shady cash-based economy.
ROFL "Catch up potential"
I like your videos but its all about "potential because we're so bad". I cant see the uk improving. I really can't. The management of the country is suicidal if not self savotaging and there's no real interest from the people which is understandable given how demoralized thet have become. So my conclusion is is the same as it was: thats it's game over for the UK.
He may need to start doing economics videos on other countries, as the UK is done for. Only so much "positive thoughts" you can give on an ailing country and economy
At the end of the video, I do evaluate these 7 arguments - some of them are 'hopeful' - perhaps even flimsy. There are also more problems I didn't have time to go into, e.g. higher taxes, weak growth in Europe e.t.c. But, it's a welcome change to try and see some glimmers of progress.
You pointed UK should not compete against rising powers like china in manufacturing and instead sought to lead in services.
But what if those same rising powers also decided to move up the value chain and capture both manufacturing and services?
For example China has also a growing Video Games (Ex. Black Myth Wukong) and Film Industry (The wandering Earth).
In Whatever sectors they lack there government would also try to catch up.
The only way the UK will grow is by ditching technocracy - central planning has never worked. It's not just the bloated public sector that's the problem. The other issue is excessive state regulation of the private sector.
China is also state regulated economy they are still with all their problem are growing faster (5% annual growth + lot's of innovation in areas like clean energy)
Oh my god . . . Positivity! Wow, didn't know it was possible re the UK economy 😮
The Uk is leading the green transition. This is a cruse because its destroyed our growth. Its also a blessing because we have paid alread 50%75% of the cost of this investment.
Even the optimistic outlook appears disappointing and would really take, with everything going to plan, a generation to fix.
Thanks for positive news
I love your optimism, unfortunately we are in a globally synchronised recession, GDI is in decline, Ukraine defaulted on the 15 billion the uk gave. Bank of England is doing QE again and had to guarantee the bonds. The black hole of 22 billion is probably triple that. Austerity and War incoming
The "Black Hole" is now £68 Billion. Because Liebore spent an extra £68 Billion in their first 30 days in office.
How can Ukraine default on 8b military and 5b non military support?
That seems a very fair assessment to me.😢
Austerity, Brexit, Covid. It’s not so much that they cost so much, more that they shifted so much money from the general populous to the rich.
The reason you are stripped of your productivity by the State and left "poor" is so that they can buy votes through Treasury Largesse. This is further compounded by mass immigration to keep labour cheap. As a result you spend most of your income on the cost of housing. Birth rates ave been below replacement levels (2.1) for a generation, so ask yourself, Why is there not a surplus of houses? Like the Palestinians in the 1940's, your Birth Right is being sold to immigrants.
While the uncertainty of the brexit process is more of less gone, it has been replaced by the certainty that in a lot of cases, the UK is not a good place to invest.
Great video! I believe the UK will recover, and I'm truly positive about it. Regarding your comments about Venezuela, we experienced a 1 trillion percent inflation. You can't imagine what it's like to survive under those conditions. As a high-skilled worker, my Venezuelan salary and savings were converted to nothing in hours by the government removing 14 zeros from our currency. It was a hyperinflation scenario. Living in the UK has made me realise how different things are here compared to Venezuela. Hopefully, leaving short-term government decisions behind can help us recover and improve.
Sorry to be depressing but if we wanted to stop our downfall we should have acted way earlier when we still had our industry, mainly by being way harsher on foreign companies (specifically China/Russia) who on average play less fair and f*ck us up more compared to British companies (e.g buying houses and selling them for massively inflated prices meaning nobody can buy a house). Now that globalisation and deindustrialisation, far and away the 2 main causes of our decline is complete (you can thank thatcher for that by selling off everything to foreign companies) there isn’t really much we can do
Hi, where do you source your statistics from? I'm trying to access stats for research and most data is stuck behind very expensive paywalls
Between the cost of leaving and the the cost of living, this is all good but until this doesn’t translate into higher living standards for the masses, the doom and gloom vibes of the last 15 years will still reverberate throughout society
I'm not optimistic about the economy, I think the budget will completely stuff any growth, were in a downward sprial along with the rest of europe, bad management, lies, wef, net zero is about to kill off any manufacturing we have, labour suck.
It doesn't follow, from the fact that we've fallen behind, that we can catch up.
Remember that old song… ‘…the rich get richer and the poor get evicted … in the meantime, in between time, ain’t we got fun… not much money, ooo but honey…ain’t we got fun…’
That is good news Patrick. In the Great Depression, people often went to the movies, (if they could afford to) so they could forget about their troubles. So I guess the more things fall apart, and people continue to lose their jobs, the more the British movie industry can expand. Lovely. Still, all the same, another excellent video. Thanks
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If the UK could catch up, based on what exactly, its like saying if North Korea just got its act together then it would be in the G7...
If the UK increased its automation, sure same as any other country that's not doing well economically. Maybe we do not have much automation because we have very little manufacturing industry and the two correlate?
Service sector is not the saviour, we know this already, the country got poorer the more it pivoted towards a service economy.
It needs to actually manufacture goods at home, but cannot because its too expensive to do so because of lack of cheap energy and raw materials available domestically.
Inflation is below 2% again same as many countries but the damage is done, those prices remain high and there is still an increase in them. Lets not gaslight here, prices are high and will not be going down unless we see deflation, which we know we will not.
UK unemployment rate is low, because we do not factor in the millions who are on long term benefits and are not actively seeking work, the real unemployment rate is at least double what is published.
No more self inflicted damage. I would say its a bit late for that, Brexit put up barriers with your largest and geographically closest trading bloc, there is no current solution to this nor does there seem to be any interest in having one. The Taxes are about to go up in the next budget, people will be getting even poorer and this means less money in the economy as the UK government uses that money to pay off external debts.
All in all I think its time this dude just faced reality, you live in a fast declining country where the wealth is drying up and where the average person has seen a massive decline in personal wealth and earnings as well as living standards in recent years. Sure it may record a little bit of economic growth in current years, but it is going to be overtaken fast by other countries like Poland that have not shot themselves in the face and tried to blame it on others.
So now Labour is in charge, low growth and low investment are suddenly a good thing?
I actually enjoyed this topic it was nice to hear something positive for a change would it be possible to a similar video about Canada on your other channel. I am not sure if it makes sense from a views perspective but in Canada we have not heard much good news lately
There is ZERO chance of any of the things you want happening with the current Labour Government , you would be nuts to invest in the UK just so they can tax all the profits away. Why did Astra Zenica build their new £400milillion factory in Ireland, 12% tax compared to our 25% and that's before Labour increase it.
Here's a question, Ireland has a huge cost of living crisis that is driving young often highly educated people abroad.
You have a choice, raise tax rates to solve the social problems but risk driving away all these companies that are only there for the cheap taxes or do nothing and see your future continue to go abroad. What do you choose ?
Where did you study economics and to what level?
Ireland and Dubai can afford to be tax havens, we resolutely cannot
ireland is in europe.....
25% tax isn't even that high. It's higher in the US in fact.
This video is theoretically true but I don't know if it'll actually happen. Sometimes I don't want corrupt politicians to rule over a time of economic growth because then people would say "at least the economy and national income grew" but corruption is all we're going to get from now on and we might as well not want to stagnate. If I continue to live in this country I'll get scammed out of all the necessary goods and services for living or at least get rubbish service if it's for free, like the absolute state of the NHS. I don't expect any leniency with prices or inflation when I get older, like little to no consumer surplus.
Rules Rules Rules , paperworks paperworks paperworks, from building a house to getting driving license .. the ease of doing business is tough in uk , the govt should make things easy n smooth like US or UAE .. so the turnover time would be 2 weeks..
To quote the Carpenters about the decline of the UK, "it's only just begun"
Thank you! We need some positivity in this ocean of doom and gloom.
Please stop citing UK film and TV industry as an example of "success". It is an overwhelmingly low wage industry.
run by a private school mafia subsidised by mummy and daddy!
Almost every industry in the UK is a low wage industry.
@@420haxxexcept the job of the English monarchy, that job pays a nice salty funded by the peasants
The decline start in 2004 draw the trend line back in time, assuming 2008 was the problem is a mistake.
...we seem to be good at opening coffee shops. Not convinced by your services argument - you can't sell NHS carers to China. France builds things because its a huge country with lots of space..
Totally agree, quite surprised he does not realise that a manufacturing economy is essential for the balance of payments and to have real jobs.
How is the UK not a world leader in ship building, the history it has and being an island nation would make it a massive player in this, but instead it lost all its potential.
Venezuela is an outlier. Whether you think it the government's policies or US led global isolation towards the country, neither and certainly not the latter is not going to be reflected in the Brexit with the limited exception of the Brexit move.
There are certain impediments that Britain has forced on itself that good policy would deal with: restrictive planning laws, investment in non-wealth creating sectors (land and housing) instead of wealth creating (production), interest rates below inflation, which boost unproductive investment and lower real pay, spiralling home prices that deter family formation, selling the high street and firms to US private equity (the UK stock market is so diminished the past 20 years), not planning energy policy for the medium to long term (we need nuclear). Reverse a lot of this, and results will surely improve even if after a painful re-adjustment.
Starmer’s response to any failures in his government is to blame the Conservatives. Will he try to take the credit for an improvement in the economy?
That's because his Keystone Kops government haven't got a clue.
All I can say is I’m getting out of here next year for sure, still later than I’d like, but the UK is only going to go downhill from here on. The sooner you get out, the less damage you’ll have to endure in the long run.
Great video
It's so over
You forgot a very significant problem in the economy and a blight on our lives.
4 Million Immigrants accessing Welfare and Housing benefits.
If these unproductive migrants were not here, GDP per person would be 10% higher and national debt would be lower.
Services do not add as much value as manufacturing. In addition wages from the service industry are widely worse than those from skilled labour roles created by manufacturing industries, therefore do nothing to address the wealth inequality that is at the heart if the UKs economic woes. One cannot replace the other simply because it is on the rise while the other is in decline
If products are being made at a loss, manufacturing adds no value whatsoever, and certainly cannot provide good jobs for anyone. Higher value manufacturing generally means small volumes, and low manufacturing costs require high levels of automation, meaning low levels of employment. The world in which manufacturing industry meant a healthy supply of well paid jobs are gone - as VW are finding out.
Japan is the classic case of an advanced democratic economy getting stuck. No need to mention despotic kleptocracies like Venezuela, which is not a good comparator. As you mention, there are number of contributors to growth, and some are hard to see in macro figures. Classic cases include quality of the infrastructure, weight of bureaucracy, and ease of raising capital. One thing that does gives me hope for infrastructure is that our taxes are low in comparison to our peers on the continent, so we have greater potential for increased funding. But increased taxation is a toxic topic in this country, as the comments below demonstrate. We don't do bureaucracy well either. We can't distinguish what is important. When we soften rules, we allow builders to build fire traps and financiers to blow up the financial system. Meanwhile there's complex and costly rules on things that aren't so important. All businessmen will tell you how difficult it is to get finance in this country: our financiers have too many easy options to make money than investing in real business.
Into the cooking pot, I would also throw in:
Education for management. Be it small or large business, we seem to have poor management.
An improvement in both the image and training of apprenticeships.
Reform of the public sector - are we getting value and quality for money? I don't believe so.
Along with robotics, to improve productivity, we need to embrace AI.
Change in attitude from wealth creation, and obsession with GDP, to a better quality of life.
Healthier and happier employees, are more productive, tax the NHS less, and be better at innovation and creativity - key to the UK service sector.
Fingers crossed 🤞 😂
If the uk started designing and manufacturing technology, such as automated robot parts it'd kick-start the economy
no they don't have expertise they all left 😂😂😂
@@LovelyDivingBoard-ch8oq yeah and they don't have the infrastructure anymore either, it's a service based economy not a manufacturing one sadly
@@jamesmulrooney3309 they planned to put exit tax on people leaving
IMHO, the UK is very far from its original glory, especially after brexit. It reminds more of the Admiral Nelson, who is 100 years old, with grey cubic hair and 1 inch of erection, unable to control the Falklands Islands, never mind his own economy. The commonwealth El-Dorados like Canada, Australia, New-Zealand etc are now successfully lost forever.
This is why I emigrated 20+ years ago. The UK really hasn't got anything - coal is no longer "fashionable", others can manufacture better product for lower cost, and reliance on the "Service Sector" is hawking back to the Reagonomics era - the UK film industry is frankly insignificant (and will remain so), and there are plenty of other producers of computer games, which are, after all, very much a discretionary spend item.
As for the energy problems, nuclear power plants are very long term, construction taking a decade or so, and after the NIMBY debacle with HS2, it isn't going to happen. "No money" for essential services, yet 3 billion pounds a year for "Project Ukraine" (which is the main reason why UK gas costs are so high).
Look at almost everywhere "outside London". Dereliction, uncontrolled fly tipping, a large (and expanding) homeless underclass, and a massive increase in Food Banks.
Education has been fully commoditised, with degrees being costly (and frankly sub-standard in comparison to those awarded by the Universities of competing economies, particularly China), financial reward for even considering a higher degree is non-existent (and this dates back for many decades - I well remember the "Save British Science" campaign when Thatcher cut education spending). This has led to a shortage of Science graduates, so no research, so no future development.
As for Venezuela, their financial woes are ENTIRELY due to the continued US meddling and attempts to "regime change" their government, to allow US exploitation.
But, Inflation has tought me that not spending is in my favour.
If you want productivity, you need to make it worth while for people to work hard.
You need to make it easy for investment etc
Our governments has made it difficult to do everything!
The reason that the film industry has grown, is because they specifically set out to make it easy to do, tax breaks, government help and encouragement etc. we won’t get that under Labour.
Hey man I have UK shares, not because I believe in the story. Just because it’s cheap.so I hope you are right
The problem is we dont manufacture like these other countries which means currency going to other countries rather than back into the British economy!
0:42 I wouldn't say that Australia and the UK are similar economies. Australia is a massive country with a very small population and an abundance of valuable natural resources. The UK, on the other hand, is only slightly larger than the Australian state of Victoria, but its population is more than 2.5 times bigger than Australia's. Also, if we exclude North Sea oil and gas, the UK doesn't have significant natural resources.
Stop saying cut interest rates. It's a short term fix which causes long term problems. Historically, they aren't high, so don't lower them much at all.
A 1% increase the the GDP per capita number means that GDP per capita is declining, as we've had more than a 1% growth in population in the past year.
It's a very nasty economy out there. Any young ambitious person is advised to seek your living abroad. Note that a 'living' these days is anything north of £50, given house prices. And try to earn your living in a low tax state, otherwise fiscal drag will steal everything you worked for.
All this talk of £8k better off is nonsense and I’ll tell you why…
We’ve seen better days economically and things materially still weren’t better back then. Even when we were thousands of pounds better off per household nothing was different. Having more money seemingly changes nothing, the government finds a way to waste it and you never see any tangible benefits.
UK and the EU are in terminal decline as industries in Europe migrate to where their markets are..in Asia.
What does UK offer better competitively than EU Eastern Europe for instance?
With UK involvement in external wars, many foreign investors / countries see the UK as hostile and a US tool.
UK is showing social instability.
UK taxation is high.
UK has no natural resources and UK energy costs are high.
UK is far from the huge Asian markets, with logistical issues such as the Red Sea.
UK banking and trade will inevitably move to BRICS where the best banking profits exist.
UK gets involved with sanctions which backfire.
In the uk we make lots of money by selling houses to each other at ever inflated prices 😊
Even if the slump was ending, Rachel Thieves would strangle it off next week anyway
But I'm in the other camp, I think we ain't seen nothing yet. We're on the cusp of a very bad depression.
Labour being Substituted for capital.
It's all "if this was to happen if that was to happen...". Nothing is happening, everything is in decline.
Don't mention Brexit !