Thank God! Some good flat talk at this point in the year. I think The Lion In Winter will be Aidan's three-year-old for the year, but will be aimed for the Derby over the Guineas. I wouldn't rule out Ancient Truth after a big enough break before his last run. Would see him coming on plenty for that. Expanded the dark horse of Aidan's with so little experience.
Not sure if it will be a guineas horse but eagerly awaiting CROWN OF OAKS next run. Can see it bolting up in a maiden at the Craven meeting then who knows? Can see it being a top miler / 10 furlong horse this season. Keep an eye out for this one guys.... Gonna be a nice one
Aftermath is a tall big beautiful horse , more assessment is needed . He will get a lot stronger . Another mountain to climb for the brits perhaps ,hahahaha .❤
@anthonybrown-nu3yc It's called Chancellor cheveley park stud horse. Beat a nice horse called Brave Mission, last time. Finished 3rd at Ascot behind Al Qudra, and New Century the two Breeders cup runners. But the horse wasn't himself according to the jockey in that race. 50-1 definitely worth a punt in my opinion.
It is possible to use form to look for evidence. There may be a lot of unknowns, many horses could improve. But it is possible to judge the horses against the standard achieved by the average 2000 Guineas winner. How likely is each horse of reaching that level of form given the likely conditions of the race that early in the season? The "how likely" also would take into account the horse flopping. There is of course unknowns about all horses punters need to have an opinion about. eg With Shadow Of Light how big is the possibility of not staying the trip and / or not acting on the ground if it came up on the firm side of good?... But the only thing that matters in whether a horse is a good or bad bet is if it is value. So allowing for stamina and ground considerations, @ 10/1 the question is does Shadow Of Light have a better than 9% (Well, maybe allow a margin for error and call it 11%) chance of winning?
@markchapman2933 its all guess work some horse improve some dont u cant go on what they did year before coz so many times a horse comes out that didnt do much then wins the race also u have alot of first time out runners just a sllly classic
@@hewoguys2506 Even with horses that improve it is not "guesswork", because it is possible to identify horses are more likely to improve than others and those more likely to improve a lot. In order for a horse to maintain its rating from two to three a horse must make normal physical improvement of around 7 lbs. Smaller horses tend to fill their frame quicker than larger types. They tend to reach their full potential a lot quicker and the smaller they are the less likely they are of making that 7 lbs progression from two to three, let alone improving on it. Do you remember Pinatubo? He had excellent form at two, but was smallish so lacked the scope to "train on". Bigger horses are yet to fill their frame with muscle as two year olds, so are more likely to improve more than that 7 lbs at three... And some are more likely to improve a lot because of that lack of muscle at two. That's not to say that a small horse won't improve or a larger one will; we are just dealing with probabilities. That's just one example. Horses also improve with experience, although some are less "green" than others. One with less experience of racing is more likely to improve than a two year old with say five or six runs at two. Although other things have to be taken into consideration. eg Expanded only had one run before the Dewhurst and that only a week before, so he could improve a lot with that thinking. But it is a judgement call on whether he was flattered with his finishing position in the Dewhurst. Made the running and raced away from Shadow Of Light. He's also only run on a soft surface and in my opinion has a bit of a rounded action. So it's possible he'll be inconvenienced by firmer ground... And although has a fair amount of size, to be ultra critical conformation-wise he's a little long in the back. Then there's breeding to consider as well as temperament and trainer form. etc etc. Racing is a great inexact science. Not "guesswork" but evidence based. As I said, it is possible to make a judgement on how likely any horse is of making the necessary improvement needed to win a median average Guineas... And then consider if the horse represents value using the mathematics of betting. However, it is also a judgement call as to whether there is value in any of the current prices... And in that respect you may be right. I backed (and tipped on a racingforum) both Guineas winners last year. Notable Speech ante-post.
If Tomo’s on commentary, they’ll all be winning at some point 🐴
😂😂😂😂 class
Photo photo .. Thats one for the judge
@@johnflynn5044 This was read in his voice exactly to the note🥲
@TanMan280 worst commentator
Are you well? I thought you were
Thank God! Some good flat talk at this point in the year.
I think The Lion In Winter will be Aidan's three-year-old for the year, but will be aimed for the Derby over the Guineas.
I wouldn't rule out Ancient Truth after a big enough break before his last run. Would see him coming on plenty for that.
Expanded the dark horse of Aidan's with so little experience.
Many. newcomers will emerge from England .Ones we have not heard of .
Watch out for Aftermath ,he may run him . Looks spectacular ❤
Not sure if it will be a guineas horse but eagerly awaiting CROWN OF OAKS next run. Can see it bolting up in a maiden at the Craven meeting then who knows? Can see it being a top miler / 10 furlong horse this season. Keep an eye out for this one guys.... Gonna be a nice one
Aftermath is a tall big beautiful horse , more assessment is needed .
He will get a lot stronger .
Another mountain to climb for the brits perhaps ,hahahaha .❤
Doing a preview for a race thats in May 😅😅😅
I know dumb innit and every year fav flops its a joke
There’s no live racing. It’s snowing.
And they do chelt previews when ???? November.
Atleast the flat actually has things to discuss
They ought to be ashamed having Dwyer on any racing programme. Integrity in racing!!
I've got one i fancy it's 50-1 currently.
Tell please
@anthonybrown-nu3yc It's called Chancellor cheveley park stud horse. Beat a nice horse called Brave Mission, last time. Finished 3rd at Ascot behind Al Qudra, and New Century the two Breeders cup runners. But the horse wasn't himself according to the jockey in that race. 50-1 definitely worth a punt in my opinion.
@@Rivelino824we gonna have a hot little Greenham you’d imagine he turns up there.
@@JonJonJonJonJonJonJonJon When he won last time out he looked a different horse. Hopefully he goes for a prep and he gets to the guineas.
Think hes 50-1 with bet 365 not sure about the other firms.
Dunno but for the 1000 Guineas i’ve got Lake Victoria and The Lion In Winter for the Derby
Rashabar 33s done nothing wrong last year
Lmfao 😂😂😂😂😂
@ you 13 years old by any chance?
@@johnnyboy6608 Rashabar 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
@@lean2281 just a thought pal got group 1 form, royal ascot winner. Anyone can shout about the fav or 2nd fav.
@@johnnyboy6608 ....... Rashabar 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
This is the problem with this race no way u can have a really good view coz so many times fav flop and really jusr guess work pointless
It is possible to use form to look for evidence. There may be a lot of unknowns, many horses could improve. But it is possible to judge the horses against the standard achieved by the average 2000 Guineas winner. How likely is each horse of reaching that level of form given the likely conditions of the race that early in the season? The "how likely" also would take into account the horse flopping. There is of course unknowns about all horses punters need to have an opinion about. eg With Shadow Of Light how big is the possibility of not staying the trip and / or not acting on the ground if it came up on the firm side of good?... But the only thing that matters in whether a horse is a good or bad bet is if it is value. So allowing for stamina and ground considerations, @ 10/1 the question is does Shadow Of Light have a better than 9% (Well, maybe allow a margin for error and call it 11%) chance of winning?
@markchapman2933 its all guess work some horse improve some dont u cant go on what they did year before coz so many times a horse comes out that didnt do much then wins the race also u have alot of first time out runners just a sllly classic
@@hewoguys2506 Even with horses that improve it is not "guesswork", because it is possible to identify horses are more likely to improve than others and those more likely to improve a lot. In order for a horse to maintain its rating from two to three a horse must make normal physical improvement of around 7 lbs. Smaller horses tend to fill their frame quicker than larger types. They tend to reach their full potential a lot quicker and the smaller they are the less likely they are of making that 7 lbs progression from two to three, let alone improving on it. Do you remember Pinatubo? He had excellent form at two, but was smallish so lacked the scope to "train on". Bigger horses are yet to fill their frame with muscle as two year olds, so are more likely to improve more than that 7 lbs at three... And some are more likely to improve a lot because of that lack of muscle at two. That's not to say that a small horse won't improve or a larger one will; we are just dealing with probabilities.
That's just one example. Horses also improve with experience, although some are less "green" than others. One with less experience of racing is more likely to improve than a two year old with say five or six runs at two. Although other things have to be taken into consideration. eg Expanded only had one run before the Dewhurst and that only a week before, so he could improve a lot with that thinking. But it is a judgement call on whether he was flattered with his finishing position in the Dewhurst. Made the running and raced away from Shadow Of Light. He's also only run on a soft surface and in my opinion has a bit of a rounded action. So it's possible he'll be inconvenienced by firmer ground... And although has a fair amount of size, to be ultra critical conformation-wise he's a little long in the back.
Then there's breeding to consider as well as temperament and trainer form. etc etc. Racing is a great inexact science. Not "guesswork" but evidence based. As I said, it is possible to make a judgement on how likely any horse is of making the necessary improvement needed to win a median average Guineas... And then consider if the horse represents value using the mathematics of betting.
However, it is also a judgement call as to whether there is value in any of the current prices... And in that respect you may be right.
I backed (and tipped on a racingforum) both Guineas winners last year. Notable Speech ante-post.
blame the weather for this utter rubbish here .