it is hard (sometimes impossible )to establish causal relationship purely from a statistical model. Science, especially mathematics and physics, build causal models.
Yes, that was very good. And it was also pretty much the only "useful" thing I got from the whole talk. I think even wise experts need constraints and structure to do and say meaningful things. We all have a tendency to bloviate, apparently even the intelligent ones among us.
Everything he's talking about are signs of a mature scholar, where he's realizing that the most fundamental issues are not what's "in the box," but what's "outside" of it. He's graduated from statistics to the philosophy of statistics.
No wonder, his knowledge of Bayesian stat could be traced to Francis Galton. Advisor tree: Francis Galton advised Karl Pearson, Karl Pearson advised John Wishart, John Wishart advised William Cochran, William Cochrane advised Donald Rubin, Donald Rubin advised Andrew Gelman.
Great video, although I don't understand how come a Foundations of Probability seminar has come to have half of its audience not knowing what sigma/sqrt(n) is.
His explanation of why statistics feels arbitrary to mathematicians in the first minute is SO spot on
it is hard (sometimes impossible )to establish causal relationship purely from a statistical model. Science, especially mathematics and physics, build causal models.
Yes, that was very good.
And it was also pretty much the only "useful" thing I got from the whole talk. I think even wise experts need constraints and structure to do and say meaningful things. We all have a tendency to bloviate, apparently even the intelligent ones among us.
Great video! Thanks for posting!
Everything he's talking about are signs of a mature scholar, where he's realizing that the most fundamental issues are not what's "in the box," but what's "outside" of it. He's graduated from statistics to the philosophy of statistics.
What happened at 15:06? Seems like everyone in that room got a sample of his posterior
No wonder, his knowledge of Bayesian stat could be traced to Francis Galton. Advisor tree: Francis Galton advised Karl Pearson, Karl Pearson advised John Wishart, John Wishart advised William Cochran, William Cochrane advised Donald Rubin, Donald Rubin advised Andrew Gelman.
Great video, although I don't understand how come a Foundations of Probability seminar has come to have half of its audience not knowing what sigma/sqrt(n) is.
Did he fart at 15:06 and then excuse himself?
i hope not, wow!
Haha poor guy.
Sounds like it
He doesn’t necessarily show Bayesian method are incoherent but does present a lot of evidence that a talk can be incoherent.
@@donfox1036 no