Will I Regret Buying So Many T-Bills?
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- Опубліковано 21 лют 2023
- T-Bills are yielding over 5%, but will investing in them come back to haunt me? Let's analyze the pros and cons of buying T-Bills in the current market.
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#tbills #treasurybills #bonds
My Strategy For Buying T-Bills in 2024! ua-cam.com/video/Vb92gX0Nccw/v-deo.html
I agree. Buying short term T bills on a regular basis right now. No regrets!!! Will continue! Love your channel.
Keep it up! Thanks for watching!
You addressed the exact question that was in my mind!😀👍 . Thanks for the video.
You're doing a good job of educating and stimulating thought. Thank you!
Thank you, I really appreciate that!
I'm in an industry where I have a birds eye view of future economics.
I've been saying since the last rate increase that they won't be lowering them till 2025. Inflation is still jacked up.
I wouldn't be surprised if we only see one rate decrease in 2025.
Keeping your emergency fund in tbills seems smart. I started taking out 18 month 0% apr credit cards, using them to pay living expenses, groceries, etc., and instead of paying them off monthly like I would normally, I buy tbills to earn a little interest before the 0% credit card rate expires and I pay it off. Not gonna get rich doing this, but no reason to leave money on the table! I feel like Speedy Gonzalez taking the bits of cheese from the mousetraps the banks and credit card companies set out for me
Hindsight is always clear and you will always find better results in something if only....
Oh man I feel so seen! This has been my exact though process recently as to what to do with my "emergency funds" that will never see the market! I have I-bonds, HYS and now 13 week T-bills and I am comfortable with that spread. The taxes are also a key factor for me living in NJ and working in NY so glad that is validated!
I still have to force myself to stick to tbills, Ibonds and even my HYSA sometimes. I always want to throw every extra penny I have into the stock market, so I have to force myself to stay safer and more conservative with money I might need sooner
@wickedsnipes308_ High Yield Savings account.
@wickedsnipes308_ high yield savings account, its basically a normal bank savings account but with much better interest rate, there is also something called money market account which basically is a high yield savings account and checking account at the same time wish I known that sooner...
I’m heavily into T-BILLS & 2year Notes. I live in California so am taking advantage of the tax situation!
funny title 😂 happy for you
Great video. Agree with every point.
I've laddered T Bills through Treasury Direct and short-term 5.12% CDs through my credit union. And will continue to do so until rates plateau.
I live in Florida, so no state income tax. 👍
that;s great but in California T bill is better!!!
I bought my first $500 t-bill a few months ago on public. Only use it for t-bills. I dont make a lot of money but i make sure to split my investments three ways. 401k, roth ira, regular stock account which i only buy strategic dividend stocks. I will add t-bills to my long term strategy.
I have been buying 3 month T-bills with my emergency fund only. I have a ladder where 1-5 T-bills mature/month. I also keep funds in HYSA's and money market funds.
For a savings use of T Bills, sounds like you are on right track. A simple approach would be always hold to maturity and keep 3 equal sized 13 week t bills laddered (or staggered). Basically every month one of them pays out, you can roll it into a 13 week t bill again. Or walk away with your cash.
You can get to a portion of your emergency savings every 30 days or let it ride.
Great minds think alike 😉
ua-cam.com/video/hcVv3VJ7hAs/v-deo.html
I got 500$ i want to use for t-bills where do i start
@@criscarter5537 This is a good place to start if I do say so myself... ua-cam.com/video/ZMX2hp_nXiM/v-deo.html
Value investing, find them hidden gem. Research every company and see their history. I have a bit in bonds, but diversify in companies the plummeted hard but with strong financial. Also know customer sentiment.
there is no safer place to put your money and you do not have to pay state or local taxes. If you need $$ now, borrow against your treasuries.
Good video. I love your videos Jay. I actually am creating a bond ladder, simply buying more TBills and TNotes every month and so ... they're maturing at different times and I can then slowly take the profits and roll it either to another tbill (if rates go higher) or go to the stock market. This way, not only I'm getting good interest, but also I'm not going to "FOMO" or "YOLO" into the stock market so it's a bit "protecting myself from myself" too. I also intend to hold the TBill till maturity so I don't care if their prices fall.
I'm doing something very similar, I have to do a lot of protecting myself from myself. Because my natural urge is to put every last penny I can into the stock market, so I have to force myself to keep some "safe" money elsewhere for shorter term needs
@@JayFairbrother EXACTLY. I actually became quite fond of investing in bonds. It's a very good yield, perhaps slightly lower than inflation but still good yield. The protecting-myself-from-myself is really key. I've burned enough with the stock market to realize I must do that. I feel this bond laddering is one technical to guarantee I won't fomo and instead I'll dollar cost average into the stock market, also to keep my allocation to stocks in check. Thanks for taking the time to reply to me Jay.
So now would be a great time to get some T-bills. Stock market less likely to continue its rocket upwards, and interest rates more likely to fall in the future.
The government has endangered itself in order to bail out the market therefore I am also questioning it my self. I bought a CEF that buys T bonds when the price had dropped thinking that it was a good buy on the drop with the government having unlimited taxing power to collect. T bonds now are in harms way of a banking bailout.
Buffalonian? first the HSBC account, then I noticed the buffalo in the back lol nice to see someone local
Yep, I am!
The strategy I used was to hold extra cash in 5% High yield savings until inflation seemed to have normalized, then I put all that savings into VGLT. My though was, the fund was paying out 5%, and is currently way down from the rise in rates. As the rates come back down, the dividend rate will decrease, but the price will increase.
Stays liquid, earning more than inflation, and in case of economic slowdown will massively out perform stocks and be my gunpowder while stocks are on sale.
I am putting excess cash into buying Treasuries weekly on the short end of the curve. But I have moved up the curve to 17 week and 26 week Tbills.
I'm still sticking between 4 and 13 weeks myself....for now....
State tax exemption is a reason for me to buy t bills.
Stock market is not very predictable at the moment.
I'm doing the same thing. Moving my savings out of high yield savings into t-bills. I am fully allocated in equities so t-bills currently are a good option for me. I try not to let fear dictate my decisions. If the govt goes belly up, we are all in deep doo-doo. Highly unlikely, I hope.
That's my approach too, if the gov't defaults we'll have bigger problems to worry about than Tbills
My banker said that in the history of the US, the Tbills and Bonds have never defaulted. And if they ever did, the government still has to pay you when they have the money available.
T bills, cds, and municipal bonds work for me. Safe, predictable, and the bonds are tax free...which is like a higher rate on a taxable investment. I may get back into dividend stocks once this over priced market fully corrects.
My only regret is watch this for more than one minute. I cannot unsee this, help me.
Does it pay to buy 2 yr notes? And how do you calculate interest you receive? How does that work
never worry about water under the bridge, it's a useless exercise
I have been keaping my money in t-bills and selling puts at the same time on the prices I would really like to own stocks. That way I am using my money twice and it works fine to me. You should not be compering t bills with stocks because those are apples and oranges. Compare them with the difference between at the money calls and puts on the best stocks you can find.
I think is better than bank CD!!! Banks doing the same thing buying treasury and giving less on CD!!!
Hello there can you explain how 5 years bonds payout.
Savings banks are fluctuating quite a bit now a days, these banks are volitile.
Good to hear from a fellow Buffalonian. The New York State Taxes is what I am also looking at.
Also, if the banks go bankrupt, and there is a run on the banks, and the banks lock their doors, T-Bills might be more accessible.
How do I get my money out of a T-Bill at maturity? Do I get a paper certificate that I can redeem at any bank as guaranteed funds like a cashiers check. Do I establish an account on the US Treasury website? Please explain how this works.
Easiest way is to create an account on TreasuryDirect dot gov. and buy them through there. They're all electronically issued, no paper copies anymore. When they mature the money gets automatically deposited back into the bank account you linked to make the purchase. It's all pretty easy and straight forward. Hope that helps, Go Bills!
My money in t-bills has a timeline for use that is hopefully less than five years. If it was longer, it would be in stocks. Different investments = different purposes.
This is the way.
Yea, I've been having a similar predicament of dumping some my EF into a 1-3 month T-Bill ETF such as BIL to try to milk the low-to-mid 4%+ yield on it. But because my exegeses are largely pretty low and in turn, don't have a huge emergency fund, I feel like I'm kind of debating over getting an extra like $50 tops throughout the year in interest over a high yield savings account
Yeah, I'm cutting a real thin line on how little of an emergency fund I'm comfortable keeping in a HYSA right now lol
I dont understsnd. If its an ETF cant you get your money out at any time?
@@Juan-tb2ww of an ETF yes. I'm buying them directly though, not through an ETF.
I have a fair amount in t bills right now. And in the back of my mind lurks this possibility of default. It’s never happened until it happens.
It's not something I'd totally ignore, but I'm not losing sleep over it....yet. Tbills are also short enough duration that we should be able to get our money out and change course if that looked like it was inevitable.
Not gonna happen. US owns the printing press, we don't default unless we consciously decide to, which we won't. Debt ceiling political debate is 100% pure political theater and nonsense. The folks who own both political parties wouldn't be so stupid as to throw away their wealth and power by choosing to default for absolutely no reason.
The purchasing power of the dollar going to 0 is a remote, but actually real, possibility. Default isn't.
@@JayFairbrotherworst treasury auction in decades yesterday. Be warned
As long as you have an emergency expense that can wait a year for the T-Bill to mature.
Yep, that's gonna be the issue when I want to go out to 1 year. For now I'm sticking to the short durations of between 4 and 13 weeks so it's not currently a factor
You may want to leave the text boxes on screen a little longer for us old folks. 🤠
Will do. It’s hard to judge sometimes when I’m editing
This is whatvi do pay $200k cash fot my apt. That will rent for $2500 per month but i ppay $800 maint and tax so i save $20400/20000=0.102% an .05 from tbills =.0152/2=.076% per year
Buying a 13w every week this year plus all my bonus money will be going into them. I was paying down my 2.7% mortgage faster but realized I might as well do T bills instead.
At these rates Tbills could pay your mortgage!
What's next, you questioning about the toothpaste change that you made.?
If you really need a rate of return higher than 5% then you need to consider stocks. If you don't, why need keep it in a safe investment? Why risk it? How much money is enough?
So what's the better investment now that you are frightened not to be part of!
Jay, Recently found your videos as I've been researching tbills. I'm suffering from paralysis analysis. Is there an easy way to calculate the upside of moving cash from HYSA to Tbills? 5% is great, but bc that's Annual the actual money is likely to be less than many might expect especially for 8 week or 13 weeks. If I can afford to buy 4 tbills (laddering) at say $7k each is the process even worth it remembering this is cash replacement so if I need it will have to wait for a maturity date. HYSA are at 3.5% APR so the actual delta here is 1.5% which per quarter (13 week) is only a .375 gap. Is that how the plus side is calculated?
Feels like the right thing to do, but at what amount does added maintenance and work become worth it/not?
I wouldn't over analyze it. It's not a decision that's going to make or break your finances either way. It's just nice to earn some extra interest on money that was going to be held as cash anyway. Plus they're such short duration that even if you decide it was a mistake, you'll get your money out of them in a month or two anyway
There are no "guarantees" in life or in investing.
Our lifetimes may never see the US Treasury refuse to pay timely interest or principal, but that doesn't mean we are not subject to counterparty risk.
How do you feel now?
Hi Jay, great video as always! I'm curious as to why you would rather buy T-bills than put the money into Fidelity's Government Money Market Fund (SPAXX), which is yielding 4.11% currently? It seems like a lot of hassle for an extra 1%. But then again, I'm a relatively new investor, so purchasing T-bills is probably much less of a hassle for you than it is for me. Interested to hear your thoughts!
They're easy to buy (check out the video linked in the pinned comment to this video if you dont know how), and earning the extra 1% is worth it to me because I can go a few months without needing that money even if I had to tap into my emergency fund
Keep in mind you can purchase T-Bills with no fees, however SPAXX has an expense ratio of .42%. Add in the savings from not having to pay State or Local taxes on the earnings of the T-Bills, and the comparison becomes even more different. When investing (or simply preserving) relatively small amounts, these differences may not matter much or be worth it, but imagine you were managing a lot of money. Some day, you may be managing a lot of money - so developing good practices today will pay off in the long run. Regardless, do what is comfortable and reasonable for you (not someone else).
@@bradlee2594 Excellent point. I hadn't considered the expense ratio and taxes. Thank you!
1% is a lot
yes. I would rather buy 3 mo CDs and roll them. Give up a few bps for more control.
No more control with a 3 month CD than a 17 week Tbill
If you ladder the t-bills, you don’t have to worry about having all of it locked up
Yep, you should watch my video on that too 😉
you don't have to pay any taxes if you buy T bills in a roth IRA - max contribution of $7500 over 50 old. I bought Tbills in roth ira/ira for all my family earning members and myself
Thats true, but for me I'm still a ways off from using Roth IRA money so it's better for me to keep that more aggressively invested to try an accumulate as much as possible over the next couple decades.
Are you counting inflation? The US Fed is pulling in all the cash depriving business if it.
On top of my previous comment: you may want to make a video on the difference between buying an actual bond and buying a bond fund. With a bond fund/etf then if interests go higher than your fund's value declines, same true for a bond, but you can hold a bond to maturity and avoid having to sell. that's not really the case with an etf, there you will have to sell at some point and it may be at a loss. I think it's a major difference which is why I prefer to buy bolds directly and not invest in bond "bundles" or bond 'fund'. Does that make sense? am I missing something?
I think I got to that in this video : ua-cam.com/video/8j7x0-KpWQc/v-deo.html check it out if you haven't and let me know if that explains it well enough
@@JayFairbrother GREAT! Thanks much. I just watched it, not sure how I missed that video, I'm watching pretty much all your videos. It is a helpful video, yet I do have a question about it. I entered my question in the comments for that video, I hope you can look at it and respond. Will TRULY appreciate it if you can reply to my question there. Thanks again.
oh ... so strange, I don't see my comment/question made it to that other video. Do you see it there?
No, I don't see a comment from you over there. Checked the spam folder and everything!
@@JayFairbrother Yep, I noticed UA-cam is not publishing long comments. I commented there are, this time I broke my comment to two parts. I can see it there now, hopefully you can take a look. Thank you SO MUCH!
Whenever you feel like you made a mistake buying too many t-bills, just imagine you bought a load of 30y bonds 2 years ago ;-)
CD paying 5.35% at Schwab
You do NOT lock up your money when you buy US treasury securities and hold them at a broker. You can sell them at any time and have access to your money within one business day. They are among the most liquid securities out there. Granted if you sell them before maturity your total return may be below the interest rate when you purchased the treasury bill, note or bond. However that risk is very low for treasury bills that are 4 week, 8 week and 13 weeks in maturity.
Yeah I explained that in another video if I didn’t mention it in this one. I was mainly talking about Treasury Direct here which you do not want to try and sell out early on
No state tax.
They always gloss over this fact. That the money grows tax-free and you only have to pay federal when you cash out. That's a plus. No yearly tax drag.
If Fed changes course and opportunity cost becomes too much just sell your t-bills. Not much is more liquid than short term treasuries. Loss will be minimal unless rates absolutely fall off of a cliff (which would require a black swan event).
Normal at your age I’d say ride out the equity markets but coming out of a black swan event and the massive demographic changes going on globally along w/ threats of war, famine, etc I think you’d be smart to diversify into t-bills and perhaps even a little at the long end. And of course any money you need in the next 3 years should absolutely be in 4 week to 17 week t-bills, taking advantage of auto roll. No need for that 3 year horizon to be negated by equity market volatility
And for god sake don’t touch anything longer than 17 week t-bills. Rates look like the will continue to rise or pause much more than the likelihood of a steep drop. The flexibility of shorter durations in a rising rate environment is well worth the marginally lower rate
Its worth buying t bills if banks go under. You dont want to park money in a bank account
I wouldn't worry too much about banks going under. But yes, holding T-Bills would be a good way to diversify your risk from something like that happening
I have been laddering t-bills since early 2023. Do you still say that you don't regret buying t-bills given that the QQQ went from 268 to 386 YTD?
I don't regret buying Tbills (still). The money I'm putting towards Tbills was never money that I was going to put in the stock market anyways. It's more of a secondary emergency fund for me. I always invest in the stock market too, just that money is money I'm sure I won't need to touch for 3-5 years or more.
@@JayFairbrother thank you
I have my extra money in governments treasury mutual funds in my Charles Schwab account so I can take it out right away when there’s a opportunity.
but if Govt Defaults when they can't raise Debt ceiling, Ibonds and T Bills are at risk?
Likely, yes. But I'm still of the opinion they'll get something worked out before that point. Nothing drives compromise like a looming deadline!
Don't buy anything that matures after mid June or you might never see your money again.
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I’m all in on Tbills. Buying 13 week so as to not get left behind as interest rates rise. One possible risk though is sometime this summer, the government may actually default which theoretically could not only lose the interest, but the capitol. This has never happened before but thanks to the yahoos in congress this could happen. The debt ceiling has historically been lifted last minute but there are a small minority of republicans who insist they will not raise unless the Dems agree to lower spending. This circus is about to get painful for the WORLD economy. Fasten your seat belts boys and girls.
This seems to be a fight every couple of years. I’m fairly confident neither side is dumb enough to actually push us into default
This was exactly my thoughts about the congressional yahoos. Glad I'm not the only one. That's why all my T-Bills that I've been laddering every week since last September will be matured by May. If/when the debt ceiling is raised, I'll go back into T-Bills. Interest for everything has been stellar regardless. Between the T-Bills, I-Bonds, and HYSA's, I've been almost living off of interest the past few months. It's a wonderful thing.
@@JayFairbrother It’s true this fight has come up often, but those other times the House was not controlled by people this dumb & who actively want to blow up the world because they believe in some insane conspiracy theory. We are now dealing with people who couldn’t pass a GED test & are isolationist morons. I wouldn’t put it past them to throw the world financial system into chaos. It’s what they thrive on. The other side isn’t going to cut social security & Medicare to appease them which is what they want. It’s not like they want to cut military spending. Not putting any more $$ into gov’t instruments until there’s an outcome. Good luck.
T-bill rate are slaughtering the stock market right now, stock are going down down down. Looks like a great choice.
It’s against the 14th amendment for the government to default on its debts
Proper asset allocation with tbills a part of this strategy is appropriate.
Stop obsessing. Next topic please.
Yet this is the topic you’re watching 🤔🤷🏼♂️
Better than any ark etf🤬
Can the Fed roll over a T-Bill and not pay you back when due? Like if I buy a 6 mo T-Bill, is the Fed obligated to pay me at 6 months?
No, once the 6months is up the money you put in + interest will be deposited right back into the account it came from unless you tell it to auto-renew
I just bought my first T bill and I out in 6100 to start some cash flow for my house savings
I have a million in tbills.No interest in stocks anymore . Don’t care if they go up or down. Cant take it with you.
Any investment where you can’t wait 13 weeks isn’t an investment.
hard to disagree with that!
It's a flip
Why lock up dollars in bills even for a month when vanguard vmfxx is paying 5.29% I am gradually starting to go long in treasury bonds
Because with T bills there is no state and local taxes.
@@TomTom-bh2wf true if you live in a state with a state income tax and moot if in a non taxable account
@@LouieLouie1218 Yes. You are correct.
Can't I just put 30,000 in a 4-week T-bill and do it every 4 weeks instead of doing a ladder of, say.. 10,000 4-week and 10,000 8-week, and 10,000 13-week?
You can, yes
@@JayFairbrother Thank you for the fast reply.
T-bills don't pay enough. IMO.
I am considering getting some T-Bills. The way I see it playing out is eventually the new bills rates will eventually drop making the older higher rates more valuable. Less people will want to newer ones leaving the government hard up for cash, stifling the economy, drop the stock market. Sell T-bills if not matured and get into stocks. A lot of things could go wrong, this is just my theory.
Rates getting lower would be better for stocks because companies could borrow at lower rates (see: much of the past few decades).
@@JayFairbrother Someone would have to be willing and able to lend the companies money. Those with good reserves might be offered fair rates, but those that need it might get gauged if banks and investors get greedy. I bet on them being greedy. Yes it will eventually correct but I think there will be a lag to capitalize on (timing the pivot). Btw I am a WSB degen, so I could be completely wrong.
Are you concerned about the Debt Ceiling issue causing a potential default?
Not yet. It seems to come up as a debate every few years and always gets worked out. The current congress being more extreme than past ones is worrying, but I don't see how either side can claim it as a win if they pushed us that far. I trust they'll work it out
@@JayFairbrother - I think you have previously suggested T-Bills would become worthless if the government defaulted. Is that literally the case? I think the world would explode if the government did not come back with some kind of restitution if there was an actual default. Any thoughts?
@@bradlee2594 If the government were to default, yes, Tbills would be affected. I'm not sure which treasuries would be hit first or hardest in that scenario, but like I said I'm not super worried about it right now. I think there's just a bunch of political posturing going on and someone will bend before theres a true default.
@@JayFairbrother - "Affected" and "worthless" may also have different meanings. I agree there will be a resolution, however just to wrap my head around any/all possibilities, I ponder the what if - and then what if?
@@bradlee2594 Yeah, I don't really know. My instinct is to say T-Bills should be relatively safe still because they're so short term that they'll mature before s**t potentially hits the fan. And no new ones can/will be issued once a default happens.
Nope, not going to happen.
Uh, I'm betting on "Yeah I think so." If you have figured out when to turn liquid assets into illiquid assets you shouldn't be wasting time creating UA-cam content. But heh, I wish you luck.
You must be laughing now
This video didn’t age well. The rate ur getting not nearly keeping in tandem with massive inflation which the cpi report is lying to the American public. Food prices in Costco nearly double on average compared to a year ago. Your money is best put to use in shorting the us stock market
Costco food prices have not nearly doubled. Do not exaggerate.
They always juice the CPI in order to extract wealth from everyone. They get it via hook (taxes fees) or crook (inflation)
This comment didn’t age well either, if you’d have shorted the broad market over past 4 months you’d have had a lot of margin calls.
swsxx tbill fund. Thats where i hold my cash