Forecasting Home Prices with Pulsenomics' Terry Loebs
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- Опубліковано 9 лип 2024
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In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Terry Loebs from Pulsenomics for a deep dive into forecasting home prices and the housing market. Terry has been at the forefront of measuring and projecting home prices for decades.
About Terry Loebs
Terry Loebs possesses more than 35 years of experience in the capital markets and in developing innovative data-driven products and services. He started his career on Wall Street evaluating and trading mortgage whole loans and servicing rights portfolios while earning his MBA at The New York University Stern School of Business.
After joining the Case Shiller Weiss, Inc. (CSW) senior management team in 1996, Terry led the commercial development of the Case-Shiller Indexes®, the subsequent effort to establish their world-wide reputation as a premier home price performance benchmark, and the launch of the first commercially successful automated valuation model (AVM) for both consumers and lenders.
In 2011, Terry founded Pulsenomics®, an independent research and index product development firm that leverages expertise in data analytics, opinion research, financial markets, and economics to deliver unique insight and market intelligence to institutional clients, partners, and the public at large. Pulsenomics develops authoritative household surveys, manages expert panels, and creates innovative indexes to quantify and monitor attitudinal shifts pertinent to business strategy and economic health. Since 2010, Terry has managed an expert survey panel comprised of over 150 leading economists, investment strategists, portfolio managers, and real estate market analysts to produce the quarterly Home Price Expectations Survey™, which is currently sponsored by Fannie Mae. In 2014, Terry created The Housing Confidence Survey™ and The Housing Confidence Index™ to quantify, compare, and track key attitudes, expectations, and aspirations among homeowners and renters nationwide and within each of 25 large metro area housing markets. The data products created in connection with this research effort were most recently branded and distributed by Zillow and JPMorgan Chase.
Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:
- Can people really forecast the housing market? Or home prices?
- Can we better understand how housing wealth impacts the broader economy?
- Why legacy macroeconomic confidence indicators don’t include housing and why that matters
- What the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey tells us about the housing market for 2024 and beyond
- How the optimistic forecasters are different from the pessimists right now
- The surprising way that forecasters’ views for housing in 2024 are different than they have been for the last 15 years
- Why home prices have “downward stickiness”
- The most important leading indicators for forecasting future home prices
- How forecasting long-term home prices is different from forecasting the next year and what to look for long term
- The one housing market indicator that 84% of expert panelists agree on
- Which risks are not yet priced into the housing market expectations
- The big macro economic trends that are potentially the most impactful for the housing market in the coming years.
About Altos Research
Altos Research is the premier resource for real-time real estate data. We provide weekly market statistics, analysis and reporting for 99% of the zip codes in the U.S., helping real estate professionals, investors, financial institutions, and their clients make better-informed decisions.
Featuring Mike Simonsen, President of Altos Research
A true data geek, Mike founded Altos Research in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications.
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See you next week!
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Altos Research is now part of HW Media! Check out their channel at @HousingWire for more housing market insights.
Thank you for this valuable information
Great video ❤. Thanks for your insights.
2 very knowledgeable commenters without the usual hype!
very well done!
Super episode, Mike! Extremely insightful and information-dense.
Houses are fungible, but not easily. Being in a position of not having to sell from financial stress, has shown to create a very stable market.
All depends a batting average of market predictors, who has best track record and what do they currently forecast?
Pulsenomics tracks that!
4 million unit housing shortage. 5-6% price increases/year make sense.
"In an experiment conducted by Duke University's John Graham and Campbell Harvey, when CFOs were asked to give their forecasts of the stock market, along with their 80% confidence interval, meaning the range in which they were 80% sure the result would fall, they did so, with intervals that were far too narrow. When told that the historical data implied much wider intervals, they persisted in giving the same narrow range. They were blind to and stubborn about the volatility."
~ "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Taleb was pointing out how futile it is to predict so many parts of the world. That's why when I started this conversation I asked Terry is it possible to forecast housing? I think Terry gives a great, insightful answer. And it distinguishes the conversation here from Taleb's thesis.
@@AltosResearchI just mean if you ask experts, the volatility of their projections is always too narrow. Like you said in the video there was expectation of a slight downside move in 2023 and then we had a massive surprise to the upside. Leading to the next Taleb quote: “the past, by bringing surprises, did not resemble the past previous to it (what I call the past's past), then why should our future resemble our current past?”