Jonathan Blow was right about the crash of "tech" jobs?
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- Опубліковано 12 лис 2022
- Jonathan Blow talks about how his prediction of the coming collapse of tech jobs seems to be coming true.
Tip me: ko-fi.com/blowfan
A follow-up to: • The Collapse of Web Pr...
The podcast Jon is referring to: • E103: Tech layoffs sur...
Jon's Twitch: / j_blow
A follow-up to: ua-cam.com/video/yodWEPgn8NA/v-deo.html
The podcast Jon is referring to: ua-cam.com/video/Ma6XineLufc/v-deo.html
Ha thanks, was gonna ask about the podcast.
It's crazy how tech went from "dream job" to "tech is dead" in like 5 years. 12 years ago it was MYTHICAL to become a SWE. Now it's like ...... I gotta learn all this crap just to make as much as an ok car salesman? You want me to be constantly learning on my own time and my own dime so I can make 55 - 70k? I have to learn a JS framework every 3 months to remain "relevant"? Bro I'm just gonna go sell phones at Best Buy.
Been SWE for 6yrs and I'm really considering to take a manual job...
@@cananardI have been a software engineer for 2 years... Is it really that bad?
And then in 2 or 3 years it will turn back into a "dream job" because thats how the market works
55-70k? i made 100k+ on my first job and i never touched any "js frameworks" you're complaining about, it sounds like you suck at programming and are looking for excuses.
I spent a lot of time learning software design and never made anything out of it. I work as a lead for a service desk. I can say that I did get something out of it but anymore I would create software for fun as a hobby.
I worked in technology for 40 years, employees being in the job market driver's seat never lasts long.
Kinda feel like it lasted from mid 1990' s to early 2020's so like 30 years?
@@n0us3rn4m3s4v41l4bl3 Maybe true for the top 0.01% of employees, the remaining 99.99% of employees sure felt the bumps along the way.
What did you work in? Unless you were a goofy tech support, you probably are blind.
Anything that is difficult will always be the driving factor, specifically anything that is mentally difficult. I don't mean to be the obvious, but its not at all ".01%". My father, my fathers friends and even some personal friends actually worked as software engineers for 40 years. They were never stressed about jobs or anything, this is because they were doing mentally difficult work as software engineers or some other form of engineering. I'm sorry if you chosen something like administration or help desk, but that's not the reality at all. Maybe less pay compared to economic situation, but never out of a job.
@@alexandrep4913 The power that the workers had over the past year and a half was much much more than simply "having a job". It sounds like you are not a professional software engineer. If you were employed in the industry for even just like 4 or 5 years, you would understand this implicitly. It is not about being able to find a job. It is about the balance of power and the shared understanding that the employer needs you more than you need them. It is about your manager not thinking they can get away with unreasonable demands, arbitrarily aggressive deadlines, or treating their engineers like cattle.
@@alexandrep4913 I worked in software engineering for 32 years in telephony, and 5 on a proprietary search engine, a couple years on other smaller projects. None of that was easy work. It was pretty clear to me when employees had the upper hand and when we didn't. Yes, most of that was driven by economic and business conditions. Software engineering is not immune to those.
Jonathan helped me to gain enough bravery to give up on learning web dev, just because I'm afraid I won't be able to get hired, and devote all my time to data science and gamedev, something I'm passionate about, even though it might be harder to find employment, I think it'll be worth it instead of doing what you hate for money.
Great that you have the courage to do that, i am more into embedded systems but i just went for the safer option.
@peter schwarz What would you suggest?
All skills I needed for software development work in my day job has come from tinkering around with personal game dev projects despite getting a degree in software engineering
gamedev by far is the worse option, although you may learn useful skills along the way (optimization). idk why jon even bothers trying to paint gamedev as a better option; the money simply isnt there unless you strike it big like he did, which is definitely not a guarantee
@@gianni50725 Yeah, but I still think not hating your life every minute that you're doing what you hate is better than making more money. Besides, data science pays well or so I heard? And I like it almost as much as gamedev.
Personally I'd love to see other jobs require more technical ability , than more pure-tech jobs
@@jay_wright_thats_right Posers and people with zero experience worth mentioning seem to think that you can run an entire operation with just a couple of people who have no fscking idea of what they are doing.....Blow seems to attract these types in his comment section.
@@thecollector6746 Very true. It's amazing seeing how big of a difference an artist or designer with programming experience makes, and vice-versa, for programmers that has some experience with art or design.
People have this idea that they shouldn't go, or can't go, outside their "field of expertise" and this ironically make them have less expertise at what they are actually doing, due to lack of understanding of the work they truly have to do.
and to add to that - it's a problem they can't see, since they often don't know what they don't know!
@@NukeCloudstalker Programmers who build UIs should understand psychology. I see so many stupid mistakes because they just don't have a clue. What is the point if the program can't be used easily or the website takes you half an hour to figure out how to book a ticket. Small changes can vastly speed up productivity.
@@Andrew-rc3vh Indeed. There's a lot to be said about designers the other way around too. So much time wasted by designers that don't understand the cost of potential changes, and don't make the effort of at least laying out changes they might want to make in the future. Forcing either insane programming practices to be flexible, or great waste of time with redesigns and re-implementations.
Programmers tend to learn more design by getting burned by this sort of design->implement->redesign->reimplement feedback loop, than designers learn programming. Leading me to really prefer programmers that know design, to designers with superficial programming knowledge. Programmers generally seem to be better at learning design, than vice-versa. Probably partially an IQ thing, but still, it honestly sucks to work with "pure" "designers".
From what I have read is there are millions of tech jobs unfulfilled.
These companies are laying off excess project managers, and devs that make like 400k a year.
Those devs won’t be competing with kids out of college.
Plus not every company is FANG. Tons of local businesses, banks, fintech etc.
it may not be as dire as you think.
But who the hell knows in the end
it is certainly dire for those working in (front end) web dev since the only reason their job isnt gone is poor tooling. it’s more tedious than difficult or engaging
but even the back end is glorifed IT at many smaller companies and startups
@@gianni50725 well said. Very true for webdev - even backend frankly. Backend is often just overglorified book-keeping. There is no reason it should be as complicated as it is, but there simply aren't many people working in the field that care about making it fundamentally better - they are happy as long as they get their paycheck, and solve problems - whether those problems are of technical or human origin they don't care for.
All too often, the problems come from tech being chosen based on what tech is marketed best to non-tech people, even!
@@NukeCloudstalker "Back end is just glorified book keeping" LoL whut? Tell is without telling us you have no actual backend engineering experience worth mentioning
@@thecollector6746 Perhaps - or perhaps I'm telling you that there are a vast number of backend jobs that are nothing like what you're used to.
I certainly don't claim to have extensive experience. But I can tell you that I worked as a consultant at a company with more than 100 consultants in-house who did nothing but glorified book-keeping. And they were making big money doing so.
I should have been clearer, and less quick to make the vast statement about all of backend - it's simply "all the backend I know of and have heard people I know talk about". There's rarely if ever any actually complicated problems to solve - only fairly simple calculations and data-transfer about accounts, privileges, and whatever platform-data is specific to the application built.
Now, I imagine a developer on airline or freight infrastructure systems may have something more interesting on their hand, but that's certainly not what most people work on where I'm from. :)
Nonetheless, thanks for humbling me a bit.
@@NukeCloudstalker Or..maybe...and far more likely you just don't know WTF you are talking about? "Backend" ranges from "simple" CRUD operations using a popular framework to custom big data piplines, to distributed ML data transformations and calculations to the architectures that allow for massive streaming services like NetFlix.
It's glaring to anyone who is honest enough to see it.
Twitter has *thousands* of employees. How did Twitter evolve in 15 years? It almost didn't. In fact it got progressively worse and slower to use. It's crazy and cannot go on forever.
In comparison, Valve has 450 employees (which, John will argue, is probably still too much hehe).
yup. the cause is that the people doing the hiring and running the businesses know nothing about programming and systems, so they think they need more people than they really do.
Valve is much more versatile than Twitter. They have more than one game developing teams (though most of these games are abandoned), they support their old titles, especially multiplayer ones, they are one of the most influential publishers in PC market, and now they develop hardware. So 450 seems somewhat reasonable.
Most of the twitter employees were hired to censor americans. Fact
@@theastuteangler It's amazing how people such as yourself who have absolutely no experience worth mentioning in any aspect of running businesses and Production Software/Systems Development will immediately go on to run their mouths about what they "know" about running businesses and Production Software/Systems Development.
@@thecollector6746 lolwut? got laid off bro? seethe and cope, my friend.
a lot of people need web developers. they just cant afford them. many businesses could benefit from updates in their tech
Because all web developers want to get into FAANG, they would never consider low tier work at a legacy company.
The model of building tech companies based on (speculative investment funding) is not the only one. Companies can organicly grow from micro and scale up over a longer time. This means sustainable incremental profits of which a percentage is reinvested into innovation and scaling up.
I literally started my own gamedev project two years ago after going on furlough from my start up job after the lockdowns went in to effect. Still working on it. No money taken from anyone yet, been completely self funded thus far.
Wish U good luck and success with your project
same here, have been slowly torpedoing my phd working on a gamedev project started in the fallout from that time, but something about it feels right. Hope all is well with you and your creativity is still pumping
Good blesses to you and your projects brother : )
Good luck brother
Hows it going?
The problem is that these companies have gotten too big and powerful. They can do whatever they want, even when it's dumb and wrong, they still win. The people need to take their power back.
We need decentralized platforms. There are fewer and fewer ytbers every year 😢
I've been working as a programmer since 2015. Not very long. But I've worked at a few different levels of difficulty -- websites, web apps, blockchain, and now games -- and I can't help but dwell on this to consider how best to prepare for my future.
I think the following is true for those working in web:
- It isn't easy to earn those 6-figure salaries so many "web-dev" teachers like to talk about.
- It's important to have produced work that can be easily reviewed by others (e.g. hiring managers).
- Web-devs are a dime a dozen, so it's important to work towards becoming a self-sufficient freelancer / contractor, or even build your own products.
- Your typical web-dev learning PHP, JS, Python, etc. isn't as knowledgeable as someone programming for systems or games, so web-devs should strive to fill those gaps and level up.
Jon makes a point of saying that the skills of an experienced game / game engine programmer will always be in demand; whereas, frontend / backend web-dev generalists will have a tough time. I have spent any free moment I have trying to escape the limits of my web-dev knowledge, so I know this to be true.
Best to prepare for the future:
Know to do more then one thing, the more skills you have the more you are prepared for the future.
Know to lie.
Look good (workout and dress well).
Get to know people, the more people you know the easier it will be to find a job.
"I have been watching 'come code with me' tutorials on UA-cam for over five years and haven't actually built anything worth mentioning that anyone actually uses as their daily driver, and due to my raging case of Dunning Krueger, I honestly believe I have an opinion that anyone should bothering listening to"
@@thecollector6746 bro you still in here seething? Just cope already. You dont know the meaning of half the words you just used. Enjoy your lay off.
@@thecollector6746 who are you replying to exactly?
@@thecollector6746 Do web devs really?
3:30 Can someone tell me which podcast he is referring to? I can't hear the name well.
@@handmadegamesdev Thanks a lot!
I thought I pinned my comment where I gave this info but for some reason it wasn't pinned. Now it's pinned.
This happened to me, caused me unemployment for six months, and now I'm thousands in debt. Should have taken the signs more seriously and pivoted profession.
It's over. I'm applying too much I might be in their blacklist or something. The current ratio is 2000:1 (2000 applications, 1 callback).
Are you kidding me
@@LEONARDO-xs2ke unfortunately, no.
@@cariyaputta it's time switch fields
I wanna know more about this "time to service a dude"
Layoff season explained in five words.
As IT consultant i say, most companies driven by profit, technology is the tool not the goal. Startups looking always for product delivery. Big
companies they look at shares price. Middle companies they look for the long term contracts. We are reaching the point in software, where we have software almost for everything, market saturation and with it comes the need to manage old code base better than it was before. As result you need you dont need so much developers, you need big data analyst more to predict future market demands. Finally people should learn new stuff constantly.
Saying we have all the software we need is as stupid as the patent office commissioner who said (in 1899) that "everything that can be invented has be invented" - really if you can't think of 3 pieces of software in 30 seconds that don't already exist you should go and flip burgers and stop calling yourself an "IT Consultant"
@@michael1 Just do me a favor , if you think that i wrong google random idea for software and if you dont find it , write here down and i do it for you and yes i am IT consultant.
@@orlovskyconsultinggbr2849 I'm an I.T consult too. I'm curious what are your primary projects/clients?
@@AlexRubio Currently i do work for Ukraine cyber defense and offense.
@peter schwarz I say dont like job , dont take it, its free market after all, so bad stuff eventually will die out.
At 3:25, he mentioned a podcast, could you please spell it for me, can't find it?
All-in podcast
Software specifically has also been one of the only fields recently where a degree is no longer mandatory. There has been a huge uptick in bootcamps, and even people transitioning from other fields into Software Engineering. I know many people in their late 20s or 30s who completely pivot their career to software. This isn't the case for a field like Electrical Engineering. There is a much bigger barrier to entry and a degree is mandatory for almost all EE jobs. In general This is in large part to the fact that all one needs to start learning SW and computer science is a computer, nothing else. People are always looking for the easy way out and would rather go to 6 month bootcamp than spend 4 years in school. So on top of all the recent graduates looking for jobs, there are also people who chose to pivot careers that are looking for jobs. Although I imagine this will eventually change as there is news of more layoffs and the difficulty of finding entry level jobs. This will lead less and less people to pursue computer science/software as a career. No one wants to go to school for 4 years and struggle with finding a job and job security.
I've done a BA+MS in civ.eng and thought about doing another BA in CS to transition to a software job. All the CS curriculum i could find were incredibly bloated. A very common thing universities do to fluff up CS is to take EE courses and shove them in CS with no rhyme or reason or other unrelated subjects like economics or business management. I opted to do a 10 month course instead and i learned way more than what i would have doing another BA while also maintaining employment and getting paid in that time.
It isn't the "lazy way out", it's the smart way out. I would argue that the vast majority of jobs shouldn't require a 4 year degree. The job market and economy would be much better off if college was cut down to 2 years and focused on increasing information retention in students rather than increasing the amount of money they can fleece out of them.
could you share the course that you took?@@technoruffles7747
So you’re saying this will turn around as the lower skilled workers get weeded out? I’m in school for CS now and I’m loving it but all this frightens the hell out of me
@@Redpilllllll yeah , it seems a lot of the basic UI work will be automated eventually. If you understand AI, compilers, and lower level details you will probably be okay
@@bellybooma thank you so much for the response and wisdom! Ai is something I really am interested in along some lower level realms like you said! That really makes me feel better 🔥
Overall, tech industry is just suffering a bit of the real world after a decade of being in a bubble. It's normal, not the end of the world. Also most of the things in life operate as a pendulum, or cycles, however you want to see it. We will see a big wave in a few years when AI hits heavily.
Jonathan's takes always resonated with me greatly. And even though most people dismissed his opinions and worldviews, somehow those same people look back on his takes and concede how much of a visionary he is. So, to all the software engineers out there, I highly recommend watching Jonathan's videos to get a different point of view than the status quo. Keep coding and keep blowing everyone.
Yeah, not sure about that last part...
@@sergio40041 lol
@@sergio40041 you should be more certain about stuff like that
@@sergio40041 did you miss the part about servicing a dude?
I work at a place that the better engineers churning out more code using is pushing out the OK and mid range programmers. There will be programming jobs just not many programming jobs. There have been hundreds already fired due to mass gains in automation. For once I'm glad my role is not as of dedicated software developer.
That was the music from Braid! Love the game and soundtrack. What language would you recomend as a first programing language nowadays in terms of demand?
Why people try to argue that the field isn't oversaturated has always been thoroughly perplexing to me. The arguments I've heard have always been semantical in nature, and have always moved their goalposts. IE: "Weeeelllll....software development IS in demand, it's just only in demand at the mid and senior levels", which was then moved to "welllll, it IS in demand, just only at the senior level", to where we are now, which seems to be "well, everyone has a hard time now, but look at what the bureau of labor statistics projects..." We honestly should have been screaming this stuff from the rooftops years ago.
however it goes with cs, it would be better than me continuing with my linguistics degree.
real shit
fwiw, my degree is in Chinese (not quite linguistics but close. It's language) and I got a job in tech. The money isn't as good as a few years back, but it's solid. I work in China and considering the cost of living here, I save like 50% of my income
That's a vision centered on big US tech. Yes, it finally matured and there is no more eldorado. Yes, junior developer might soon not expect getting 120k annual salary on first job. But if you focus on the world instead of the microcosm of silicon valley, you will realize that 50% of companies are still using basic document/excel for most of their processes. There is still plenty of room for developers to automate. Those companies are not doing it because of the cost, or lack of SaaS solution for their specific case.
As developers start to flow looking for job, overall cost will decrease leading to new open positions.
Of course it means developers entry salary will get lower, but a 3x, 5x or 10x developer will still have a great career with great income. I'm zero worried for those who graduate in CS degree for at least 10 years, even with AI raising.
Came looking for this, this is how the real world works
10x developer doesn’t get 10x salary
@@MrVladko0 I don't think anywhere, anyone did wrote this.
@@MrVladko0then you're doing it wrong
It will be amazing to watch all the schemes enabled by a zero interest rate environment for over a decade unravel in a spectacular fashion.
Twitter is now charging people for using the site.
Finally the world is turning sane. We couldv used the near-zero interest rate period for actually usefull shit, but instead we blew it on soydev shit and not actual technology
It's happening now. My company just laid off a 1000 people a month ago. And they're gonna hire back offshore people at 50% less pay to backfill.
You gotta set up a couple scenes on obs man. One for camera, one for screen with a thumbnail of the camera, and one maybe just the screen. Then you just click on the scene and you have the mic, camera frame, and monitor preset to your preferences and you can switch between them easily. It's really quick, just try adding a scene and switching between the 2.
since there was a shortage of developers before, surplus is going to solve the problem
The funny part is there isn't going to be a surplus. There is a depopulation issue, there is a constant need for new software and old software dying off only to be replaced by the same type of software.
Its really a matter of how many above 100iq people are there and how many of them are going to decide to take up programming?
There will never be a surplus of good developers. Good developers, usually senior, will always be in high demand
@@foswa6335 Bingo, but there is definitely a surplus of javascript bootcamp graduates
I’ll say this because it’s the truth and no one wants to talk about it. The problem is we have too many foreigners involved in American domestic interests and software development particularly in the United States. We have an oversaturation of Indians who have literally moved over to America training for just one career field IT. Indians as well as now Europeans and even those who have been around for a while from China or destroying the IT market in America through oversaturation and it has thinned out the job market amongst many other issues as formerly mention by others. It is one of the very few career fields where you can work remote and not have to hold accountability to a product in person like you do with medicine, engineering, law and in many regards education. The other problem with IT is that you can have a very smart high school kid spend one summer in Boot Camp learn JavaScript and literally out code someone who’s been doing it for 25 years that would never happen in law, medicine or education as past experience always builds on your present experience. This is also why ageism is a real thing in IT but rarely found in any other industry. After spending 25 years in his career field I would never recommend anyone going into software development. Good luck competing with tens of thousands of other software developers when you’re in your 40’s, 50s and 60s.
1. IT is not SWE, don’t confuse the two.
2. foreign competition is only an issue if you suck to be frank. sky is the limit right now and foreigners ime have poor technical educations, barely passable.
3. ageism is rampant because they also frankly are worse on average, and have less room to grow. your brain slows down as you age, sorry to say.
but if you’re someone with obvious skills and experience, not starting from scratch way too late, you aren’t going to be turned down. nobody sane is turning down john carmack just because he’s older
@@actualwafflesenjoyer Inaccurate in practice since talented engineers from abroad are eventually brought over to the states. That is how it is like where I work, anyways.
@josephp.3341
You use anecdotal evidence to back up your claim and expect to be taken seriously?
@@gianni50725 Older people who have been working for a long time (not just 9-to-5ing but actually wanting to learn the whole time) have experience and intuition that comes only by working in tens of different project and analyzing how they went and why. That's what makes experienced devs worth a lot.
Once you know enough languages, paradigms and environments you'll see how the core concepts are present in everything we do, no matter what what new language/framework you use.. so you'll pick them up quicker and know what to look for and where it might go wrong.
To me it seems that the problem in the SW dev field is rather reversed.. most places are hiring senior devs and it's the juniors that have hard time finding a job.
@@johnyewtube2286You bought absolutely nothing, not even a claim, and expect to be even acknowledged?
Thanks.
Seed stage, low burn rate... take the 3 months severance and bonus to build a decently innovative game with a growth oriented revenue model?
People laughing at Elon for firing half of Twitter.
And the backlashes of his actions are pushing it towards bankruptcy, directly or indirectly.
But I have no doubt in my mind most of the Twitter staff actually do no work.
You can't have 7000 people working on an internet forum with no features other than tweeting.
And these people get paid a lot like 250k a year by doing absolutely no work.
Not hating on those people since it's "blame the game not the player" kind of situation.
No one should reject an opportunity like that and there is no reason to not do so.
You don't know WTF you are talking about. Why do you idiots who have absolutely no experience worth mentioning with this subject matter are so laughably confident in your conclusions despite not knowing at all what the fsck you are talking about? Most people at Twitter were not making 250K or anything near it and LOL at Twitter. Half the people who were fired were in infrastructure that immediately started failing the moment that imbecile Musk fired them and now he is begging for them to come back. So yeah, feel free to STFU about matters you know nothing of at any time.
Undercover project veritas footage confirms that. They are working 4 hours a week and taking mental health breaks.
Wait, so is firing half your workforce that in your opinion "get paid a lot like 250k a year by doing absolutely no work" helping to prevent this bankruptcy you mentioned or isnt it, since you said his actions are pushing it in that direction?
@@guyfromdubai I think by "his actions" he means his "public antics" that are driving majority of advertisers away. Firing 80% of the staff doesn't seem to be the driver of their financial troubles, Elon being Elon does.
Uhhhb weird incorrect “logic.” People pulled ad revenue before the layoffs under fake outrage at his “right wing” aka not far left views and way of speaking. They most likely also realized they were paying to advertise to bots. Anyone who used Twitter knows how bad the fake user issue was.
Then Elon realized many people don’t do much….
Two unrelated things
Also people who make up fake left wing conspiracy theories realized they would actually be fact checked and threw hissy fits. Saw that a lot during covid. People made up complete stories about trump, tripled death rates for covid, etc and the tweets just stayed up like they were real
Software development is a lot more. Software makes planes fly, nuclear power plants run, medical devices work etc. Software is in your fridge, the electrical grid and is used every time you pay. The telecom industry is running on billions of lines of code. If silly apps go bankrupt there are still massive numbers of jobs. The amount of code to make an aircraft carrier run is far greater than a silly startup.
Queue Theory... Reminds me of my back log of uploads.
The issue is cost of borrowing capital. The issue is not jobs, per se. The option always exist to self-employ, or create a startup. The issue is access to funds in order to not starve while doing so, and to fund the business growth. Some unmet human need will always exist for software jobs to need to fill, and that’s because as humans our satisfaction lies in fluctuating levels of dissatisfaction with life over time. So, no the comparison to autoworkers is not reasonable because Detroit workers needed to go into someone else’s plant, to operate their machines, and output a single car at a much slower rate and requiring many more workers along the chain of production. The issue is cost of borrowing; interest rates; the Federal Reserve needing to tame the rate of inflation under control.
I think this is one of the smarter comments here. As interest rates grew, access to low-interest money, even to large corporations, became harder.
These companies are on an endless treadmill of churning out greater profits every quarter, and firing people is one of the EASIEST ways for companies to shed money off their balance sheets.
That is why tech is seeing such a mass event of firing. It is not because tech is dead; it's mainly because the companies can't borrow money at near 0% interest rates and have an OBLIGATION to provide value to shareholders.
As the world becomes increasingly devoured by tech and more sectors of our economy embrace the technical evolution, software engineers will continue to be in demand.
The situation is even worse, because tech jobs, by their very nature, not only automate other jobs but also themselves.
I agree with the nukes part, its crazy how human history works
Many of us knew it, when they started opening the floodgates, setting up all kinds of bootcamps and inviting everyone and their mothers to become developers i knew then the demand wasn't going to keep up and wages were going to nosedive.
Used to be a relatively rare profession, that took a college degree to engage in, demand grew fast and people thought it would just keep growing exponentially, nowadays it's something your former hairdresser does after a 4 week free bootcamp from some company lol.
I agree with others that there is always work for people who are experienced and have relatively uncommon skills in techs that aren't popular with all the kids and the diversity folks, the crash is really a junior crash, which was entirely predictable.
For those in the US, just going to say. Got a state govt developer job few months ago as my first FT dev job out of college. It isn’t glamorous, but i’m getting to lead the tech stack transition (I fought for no SPA JS framework, focus on BE). Lots of freedom and responsibility. No chance of layoffs. TC = $10Xk in mid col city. Live well beyond my means (rent $400/m). I will transition to tech industry when the time is right. But the whole narrative that tech is dead is dumb. It’s just speculative tech is on cooldown rn. Look for the narrow path.
"everything I know about this I learned from the all in podcast"
Cool, disregarding everything you say
Nah. First, industry matures and stabilizes. And years of overdemand and hype resulted in skewing economic bill and companies growing layers of fat like excessive HR, happines managers, Scrum Chaplains. Management got so ineffective as was running the project, that only way to manage it was to scale headcount up (which in most cases didn't help). Now, when this overlapped with generic slowdown.... there's panic, because most of industry doesn't know anything but excessive abdundance.
the mental gymnastics in the comments are more amazing than those in the video
**demonstrates cerebral handspring**
How many years do you think Salesforce has?
Probably many. Their products are absolutely terrible, yet (because of?) they invest nearly all their budget in sales & marketing (clue is in their name), so despite having a horrible multitenant, ridiculously overpriced product, with bugs that haven’t been fixed in literally a decade, they nevertheless have an almost endless stream of gullible senior executives who will buy into excessively priced contracts and then foist the system onto their dev team who then have to work around all of the Salesforce issues and limitations to build the features they ask for.
The excessive cost of subsequent migration means that the customer/client has now been captured, with their product now built around this garbage stack.
Anyone who has done much work on Salesforce will know exactly what I mean 😂
Drive a bus!!! There is no ovetsaturation in bus/truck driving and it's an easy job. And one could avoid worrying about whether the jobs are available or not.
"Everything I learned about this I learned from the All-In Podcast"
I think the pandemic really changed things - 1) many people went back to school (and knew tech was accelerated for good pay) 2) $10 trillion printed out of thin air. All the tech companies started layoffs the last 2 years. The magnificent 7 were sucking up all competition, but AI kind of changed that but now that we have AI it seems like normal devs have 2x'ed output and menial tasks are automated. Those new/mid level devs are now mid/senior level and starting their own companies and don't really want nor need junior devs. Finally, China, India and Europe are popping out engineers left and right due to globalization, especially the former 2. I think coding is a even a requirement in India around 6th grade. Now we're here.
AI is still completely useless in my domain, and when someone uses it, it's immediately noticeable in code reviews (because it produces nonsensical steps, or outright incorrect). This might change with networks, not based on transformers (mamba+?), but its still questionable.
@@OREYG Do you think it will get better overtime for implementing code?
13:20 Learn COBOL or C then.
It is valuable too.
over rep of certain "work force"
"Called it 2 or 3 years ago"? (so 3 to 4 years before now?) The writing was on the wall for a full decade...
Yes it super crashes from here. Fed will keep raising rates for 2 or 3 years, we have yet to see the big bubble burst.
Spoiler: maybe
Even the toilet has a flush app and people are buying it. So ..
Good. I was never interested in web developer jobs.
I dunnno its got the most toys to play with and theres always something else to be learning
US army recruiting problem will solve itself
Gonna have to lower standards even more to get programmers to qualify for service. 😂
ye, can't disagree with anything here.
"no particular skill, like generic frontend or backend"
him taking a dig at frontend or backend devs is, to me, the same as a material scientist taking digs on contruction works for just putting it together.....
ok..go build a trading dashboard / commerce site, john, also cheaply, on the web and opens on a mobile within the same year.....
we can't all spend a decade fkn around in Jai
I don't know man, Jonathan Blow is like Andrew Tate of Tech.
Is Blow just the latest 'high priest' of the programming caste? It's high time to bring those excessive wages down with simplification and automation :-)
High priests were originally those guys to whom you would give your punching cards so they could offer them to those giant IBM computers?
Guys this is called a business cycle. Honestly all developers should be forced to take a year of business or economics classes.. maybe they could make more profitable companies
Yes everybody, there is a crash in tech jobs. We're not just telling you this to help suppress supply and keep our own salaries higher ;)
there is a crash in all jobs, except for maybe healthcare
It’s pretty silly to claim victory at this juncture when employment in tech is far above pre pandemic levels.
DOH ! you miss the point of the video entirely
@@firstname4337 No I understand exactly what he’s thinking, but he’s just following herd mentality here based off a few headlines
cope. the derivative matters more than the function itself as far as the market is concerned, and i agree. this is why most people do so badly when investing since they can’t grasp this basic fact.
Yeah, even *after* these layoffs they're still bigger than they were 2 years ago.
Meta employees by year:
2019 - 44,942
2020 - 58,604
2021 - 71,970
2022 - 87,314 as of September 30, 2022
After laying off 11,000 employees in November then they're back to 76,314, which is still higher than 2021. Even if they did another round of layoffs they'd be back to 2020 levels.
I really tried, right? to get through this video, right? but then, right? had to *sniff* stop, right? when he tried to *sniff* argue, right? that "tech" right? is all hinged on *sniff* VC, right?, meaning, right? he has bought, right? into silicon valley's *sniff* fart-huffing, right?
Throw all the concepts about money away. How can I take what you and I know and help kids with Autism. My daughter I fear will have a life of hardship after I die. I fear I can't give her the means to make it. I feel video games, music and art will be a way to help her but I just can't make a breach to connect to her to the world on the outside. Please help with some words you think would make an impact.
It is short-term crisis. It will be good again in a few years.
nope he wsnt
So this channel is just fans Blowing Blow's microsd? 😅
I had problems focusing on the content because every phrase of the video ended with ‘right’ and somehow I found this very annoying / distracting… you don’t need to request confirmation on every phrase that you say. There is nobody to answer anyway.
They aren't requesting confirmation; they're engaging their conversational faculties with a hypothetical agreeable partner in order to effortlessly organize and illuminate disparate and related information. Perhaps you don't "need" to do this, but this is a natural way for them to talk... in fact for many that are agreeable, and frequently have to be supportive to people with less technical knowledge, it's a useful habit and an afterthought. So really, you don't know what they need to do to engage this circuit.
@@enotdetcelfer To say right at the end of every phrase?
the end of adult daycare
The people getting fired on the big platforms are not engineers. Those jobs are marketing and managing positions, filled with women between 20 and 40 who are the daughters of politically influential people. Such women have posted many instagram videos of their workday which consisted mostly of free food, alcohol, and leasure activities which are provided for them at the companies. The whole thing was a daycare center for surplus elites.
The senator sleeps well knowing his daughter has a "job" which gives her a regular routine and makes her feel useful, but doesn't put stress on her. He will make sure legislation does not hurt that company. The bank CEO who's daughter works at Twitter will make sure Twitter gets large loans with defacto negative interest rates.
However, with a high fed rate, defacto negative interest rates will be impossible, and if it keeps rising, it's only a matter of time until engineers will be effected too.
I looked at some excel sheets with people on linkedin, there were also a good amount of engineers, senior engineers, engineering managers in there, at least for twitter
I'm always amazed when people feel so comfortable making these sexist statements. You shouldn't say the quiet parts out loud.
You know what, it's actually better when you do that. That removes all the guesswork and shows us clearly where you stand on the roles of women in companies and the value they provide.
It doesn't take a genius to see the resentment you have for women.
@@cyronixed For a long time, the consensus in the stonks community has been that the "tech" giants have a very large amount of useless employees (sometimes flamboyantly useless). It is generally assumed that those are the ones getting fired first. But I haven't checked the numbers.
@htpkey I think he has a resentment for people who get hired for no other reason than to boost a companies “diversity” quota.
I’ve seen the video he’s alluding too also. The ladies there were 100% not doing anything the entire day.
@@drygordspellweaver8761 He alluded multiple times that he dislikes the fact that women (and daughters) are getting these worthless jobs, without any indication that men are also fulfilling them as well. He didn't complain about men and the sons who got these jobs through nepotism. This is sadly a common stereotype that some men like to perpetuate till this day.
There is no attempt to back this negative stereotype up with actual data. Which companies were researched? What were the available positions within these companies? What jobs are considered "useful" and how did you determine this? What actual percentage was filled by men and women for these "worthless" jobs?
I think it is very arrogant and shortsighted to claim that a company could only run by their engineers and that all other jobs (hr, marketing, support, catering, cleaning, etc.) are kind of useless. I am saying this as an engineer.
I've seen multiple colleagues look down on the work of others (especially women) because they seem to value their own work more than anyone else's. They also casually talk about cutting out all these jobs from the company thinking it's going to improve their bonuses at the end of the year. It's absolutely disgusting!
He means front end css developers 😮
i got 7 years experience in iOS development and i cant get a job for 4 months now
in my vacation-like lifestyle i got into meditation and other esoteric stuff and it dawned on me also
Now programming is good for impressing women obsessed with their iPhones, that's it
if i want to get something good in life i now have to step up to product designer and stop focusing on code, it's a useful skill to have like carpentry, plumbery or electrician stuff, but you cant make tons of money from it like you are used to.
Getting a stable job is not an option also, you go indie or you get fired over some bad news.
Its not pleasant to learn new skills, when you thought you are golden for life, but the thrill of learning is what got us all into programming.
cant emphasize how wrong this is. you’ll ramp up quicker if you know low level programming focused on optimization. there are zero higher-paying entry level jobs than those in HFT*, and higher levels pay 7 figures. if iOS dev is dry and dwindling in pay thats specific to iOS dev. make your own app.
the rest of what you said also does not match up with my experience. either you’ve worked for bad companies your whole career or you’re in europe, in which case it doesn’t apply to tech most people are concerned with
*HFT is seasonal, and I expect salaries to go down, however they rise back up with the market as with any job.
Bro stepped out of his lane into something he doesn't really understand well. It's a first-order take.
This guy cloaks bull crap in quasi complex analysis. Dude, right or wrong, your breakdown is so full of false objectivity its funny. False bullwhip effect? Do you truly understand the bullwhip effect? Seems not for you to use it in this context. It goes far beyond this simple supply and demand analogy. Again I'm not saying the tech industry will or will not collapse. I'm just pointing out high quality click bait. I tend to think this is a cyclical phenomenon we're seeing based on many factors such as the influx of new techs flowing into production; seems job demand will pickup once the industry finds new ways to create demand (capitalism, folks). Anyways, cocksure posture is an annoying quality among those who can't speak with proper capacity on the matter. But hey, bs sells these days.
I agree, tech jobs may be shrinking, but this is not happening in isolation. There is a general recession and the job market is affected as a whole. My best friend is a civil engineer, he and his team were recently laid off. He knows is temporal, construction will resume later this year (at least in my country). The same will happen with web dev jobs, but probably take longer.
@@feralaca123 there is not a general recession yet in any way that matters re: being a recession. unemployment rate is still very low. (“but muh GDP!” then its a technical recession. not too relevant anyway.)
tech is being disproportionately affected and you and I both know it just glancing at stock performances.
Tech jobs are sadly over-paid and companies throw bodies at the issue of quality, which doesn't always fix it.
Depressingly it looks like all tech issues will be solved and sold by billion dollar companies, and remove the need for smaller developers. Concentrating power in a few, and starving the rest of us from experience and skills.
But I already have the degree so, I'm kinda stuck here now. No time or money to do otherwise.
Seems like it’s a crash of newbie jobs and wannabe coders, still work out there who know more than leet code and specialized
Most software isn’t technology? WHAT??
he means there is no innovation or new “tech”, its just using apps to sell old products. there is no new technology to speak of, they all use react and pre-packaged db managers
I wouldn't take too much economics advice from JB, obviously a smart guy but just regurgitating talking points from podcasts isn't particularly insightful.
There are still jobs, they're just for seniors. That can't go on forever.
Additionally, economies go up and down when the economy turns do you think tech is going to grow faster or slower than other industries?
I did and would still bet on tech.
There is AI. There is algorithms. And there is interfaces. HTML is the new assembly language of interfaces.
WE DIDN'T LISTEN!
There are plenty of jobs. What are you talking about? I guess you guys don't know where to look.
For Juniors?
The churn is because of Web3 tech. There will a crash but not a super crash sort of thing. The tech sector will bounce back even higher when web3 tech finally becomes mainstream by 2026.
What BS is this? I've been in the software industry for 25 years now. We always, even when we hire ppl, at any time, have at least 15 job offers going, which is a lot considering company size (about 150 employees). Even during Covid and, even now when state of the current economy is worrisome. So I call BS.
What type of SWE work has this been for? Thanks,
What product do you guys make?
@@williamanthony915 I don't think they're allowed to tell you unless they disclose that they're a paid marketer and making it up
@@JrIcify Was just curious about what kind of product. Whether it's enterprise software or web development, I can't think of anything that's understaffed.
@@JrIcify Or alternatively he actually knows WTF he is talking about as a person who works in the industry you pudding brained posers have zero experience in or with?
the comments section is almost 300 unemployed jblow fanboys shouting in glee about how the tech market is "collapsing" meanwhile stocks are up and companies are still hiring en masse... 😆keep watching youtube videos and listening to jblow complain about software, i'm sure it will work out for you all! 😃
the barrier to getting started as a developer is pretty wild though. I mean there was a time when being self taught would do it. Its more like being an MD now where you have to do your school and then spend the eight years out of school learning all the shit they didnt bother teaching you in four years
Most workers who mostly dont do much work will have a quick reality check.
bad
This was both boring and stupid
web developers are cattle
What, why?! 😳🤣