TL;DR: Mage's last turn on last game feels like misplay. In that last game, there is a first flame and a brain freeze left in mage's deck that are discounted to 0. So if the mage AI before playing the 0 mana ignite, he'd have 60% chance of being able to win by clearing taunt with it. (It's flurry, brain freeze, first flame, ice barrier, fireball, spice bread maker when it was at 6 card) Also, if he picked first flame on ruined orb instead of defaulting to lunacy, same can be achieved. And if he picked fireball instead of lunacy... nothing would change. Even if he did not misplay the order of incantor and ignite, the ignite would still cost 1. Which he can't afford alongside a fireball. I think most people probably would pick fireball there, so that doesn't affect outcome I guess? I believe the better play is to AI to seek the lethal. And if it fail to get brain freeze or first flame, 0 cost ignite for 7 then fire sale to board wipe (leaves 14 hp) The deck would be 5 cards with ignite, first flame and brain freeze in it. That's 33% win rate over "passing". Next turn, 40% draw Ignite or fireball and win. This ignite would deal 6 damage, with 7 damage one in hand and ping to win. It's also a win if fireball was drawn with the last AI last turn (or, as noted above, if fireball was picked instead of lunacy, this is also lethal now) Play ignite for 7 damage and 2 mana(would have been 1). Play AI. This would leave you 3 card in deck, unless it's fireball, ignite, ignite, you win. And if it is, trade in your other fire sale and you will probably win (cost 2(-1)+3(AI)+1(trade)+2(fireball is discounted))= 8(-1). The only case you don't win is if you draw the 6 damage ignite, in which case you don't have mana left to HP due to the misplay of incantor into ignite "last turn". Note for this to happen, you literally have to draw 2 of the 3 out of 6 card(barrier, flurry, spice) on first AI, then draw 3 out of 5 card(not ignite or fireball) for turn, then both of the 2 out of 5 card on second AI, then, on trade, get the 1 out of 3. That is.. 3/6x2/5 x 3/5 x 2/5x1/4 x 1/3 = 0.4% chance to fail. 60% win this(his last) turn, 99.6%(would have been 100% if not misplay OR fireball pick off ruined orb) next turn. Granted, the hunter only had one aimed and one piercing for win I believe? If he don't get either off natural draw, he won't even be able to play piercing alongside HP if he get it off quick shot, which means he'd need mankirk's wife and not HP. He could barely be able to afford piercing into the gnoll if the draw was a tracking that gets the piercing. Which would be lethal (3+4+2). But if mage fire saled, that won't be possible. Ofc, tracking into aimed will always work. But drawing tracking off quick into aimed would be insufficient mana. Overall, the hunter had like 20% to win? Maybe like 15% if the mage fire saled. Granted, given the aimed shot draw, it would have been the same either way. But at least "my" line of play had a 60% win chance. Note: My initial thought was only "Aren't there 0 cost spell that can clear the taunt on field in deck? Why not AI to dig for it with fire sale after if that fails to clear board?" as the game played. The actual, more detailed stuff as noted above is "researched" thereafter. So no, I would not have known all those probability and the exact pro and con of the lines of play. But I would have dug for the 60% chance to win with a relatively safe clear board if I fail. Edit: Updated win chance. Not sure why I thought AI only gave 33% lethal chance, it's 60%. There is a 4/6*3/5=40% chance of NOT finding lethal with it. Updated above.
@@joshuakei8925 Not really. I'm very good at thinking in 1-2 turns time. But I'm not good at planning beyond that. Which means I tend to catch end game misplays, but have trouble even getting to that game state. Which also means I'm not the best at micro tweaking decks, as that requires planning VERY long ahead, taking full meta into account etc.
he also could have won by clearing the board like casters suggested by igniting the rhino and flaming the smaller minions, since you sort of know ayroks hand is spells by hand reading.
@@bradscott2727 Assuming the Ignite cost 1. If he AI(as I suggested) then trade, he will have a 80% chance of finding a 0 cost clear (60% on AI, then 50%(of 40%) on trade). However, this leaves him with 1 mana, meaning he can't clear the 1/1, making him weaker against piercing shot. Though not significantly, since he should know the card in hand is quick shot (due to Barak drawing two and he have seen both the 1 and the 3, thus all quick shot must be in hand), so piercing shot on the gnoll would be lethal too. Now, there is a Cub in hand. However, to play it, the quick shot and piercing shot cost a total of 7 mana. And he will need HP on top to lethal with piercing+quick. This means he would have to use all the mana on this, ergo tracking into piercing is no longer an option. Which is why I advocate for full board clear with fire sale. If he just trade.... that's strictly worth than AI as you would only have 33% chance of finding a 0 cost out than AI's 60%. P.S. I'm not sure why I thought AI only granted 33% chance of winning... it's 60%. The chance of NOT winning is 4/6*3/5=40%. As you need two draws that are not first flame or brain freeze out of 6 cards. Edit: On second thought, trading after AI is worth it. At that point, it's basically 50% chance to win(this is assuming AI failed to find the out). Assuming he always win next turn and the extra piercing out makes his chance of unable to survive to next turn go from 15% to 20%, trading gives him 50% chance to win this turn, 10% to lose and 40% to win next turn, 90% chance to win. Whereas not trading means 0%(again, AI already failed) this turn, 15% to lose and 85% to win next turn, only 85% total. Taking the extra gamble would have been worth it.
Judgement unbelievable choke at the end, so many clear mis-plays. Was he getting carried by his strong line-up and deck picks this tournament?
He's played well enough, seems like nerves just got to him near the end of the tournament or something.
41:00 sick bro
SPOILER.
As others have said: not starting with the Fire Sale was a HUGE misplay.
You could say he... lacked Judgment.
TL;DR: Mage's last turn on last game feels like misplay.
In that last game, there is a first flame and a brain freeze left in mage's deck that are discounted to 0. So if the mage AI before playing the 0 mana ignite, he'd have 60% chance of being able to win by clearing taunt with it. (It's flurry, brain freeze, first flame, ice barrier, fireball, spice bread maker when it was at 6 card)
Also, if he picked first flame on ruined orb instead of defaulting to lunacy, same can be achieved.
And if he picked fireball instead of lunacy... nothing would change. Even if he did not misplay the order of incantor and ignite, the ignite would still cost 1. Which he can't afford alongside a fireball.
I think most people probably would pick fireball there, so that doesn't affect outcome I guess?
I believe the better play is to AI to seek the lethal. And if it fail to get brain freeze or first flame, 0 cost ignite for 7 then fire sale to board wipe (leaves 14 hp)
The deck would be 5 cards with ignite, first flame and brain freeze in it.
That's 33% win rate over "passing".
Next turn, 40% draw Ignite or fireball and win. This ignite would deal 6 damage, with 7 damage one in hand and ping to win. It's also a win if fireball was drawn with the last AI last turn (or, as noted above, if fireball was picked instead of lunacy, this is also lethal now)
Play ignite for 7 damage and 2 mana(would have been 1). Play AI. This would leave you 3 card in deck, unless it's fireball, ignite, ignite, you win. And if it is, trade in your other fire sale and you will probably win (cost 2(-1)+3(AI)+1(trade)+2(fireball is discounted))= 8(-1). The only case you don't win is if you draw the 6 damage ignite, in which case you don't have mana left to HP due to the misplay of incantor into ignite "last turn".
Note for this to happen, you literally have to draw 2 of the 3 out of 6 card(barrier, flurry, spice) on first AI, then draw 3 out of 5 card(not ignite or fireball) for turn, then both of the 2 out of 5 card on second AI, then, on trade, get the 1 out of 3. That is.. 3/6x2/5 x 3/5 x 2/5x1/4 x 1/3 = 0.4% chance to fail.
60% win this(his last) turn, 99.6%(would have been 100% if not misplay OR fireball pick off ruined orb) next turn.
Granted, the hunter only had one aimed and one piercing for win I believe? If he don't get either off natural draw, he won't even be able to play piercing alongside HP if he get it off quick shot, which means he'd need mankirk's wife and not HP.
He could barely be able to afford piercing into the gnoll if the draw was a tracking that gets the piercing. Which would be lethal (3+4+2). But if mage fire saled, that won't be possible.
Ofc, tracking into aimed will always work. But drawing tracking off quick into aimed would be insufficient mana.
Overall, the hunter had like 20% to win? Maybe like 15% if the mage fire saled. Granted, given the aimed shot draw, it would have been the same either way. But at least "my" line of play had a 60% win chance.
Note: My initial thought was only "Aren't there 0 cost spell that can clear the taunt on field in deck? Why not AI to dig for it with fire sale after if that fails to clear board?" as the game played. The actual, more detailed stuff as noted above is "researched" thereafter. So no, I would not have known all those probability and the exact pro and con of the lines of play. But I would have dug for the 60% chance to win with a relatively safe clear board if I fail.
Edit: Updated win chance. Not sure why I thought AI only gave 33% lethal chance, it's 60%. There is a 4/6*3/5=40% chance of NOT finding lethal with it. Updated above.
@@joshuakei8925 Not really. I'm very good at thinking in 1-2 turns time. But I'm not good at planning beyond that. Which means I tend to catch end game misplays, but have trouble even getting to that game state.
Which also means I'm not the best at micro tweaking decks, as that requires planning VERY long ahead, taking full meta into account etc.
Great text!
Also if he flows after ignite, he has one mana at the end of the turn to trade a fire sale to find a 0 mana out
he also could have won by clearing the board like casters suggested by igniting the rhino and flaming the smaller minions, since you sort of know ayroks hand is spells by hand reading.
@@bradscott2727 Assuming the Ignite cost 1.
If he AI(as I suggested) then trade, he will have a 80% chance of finding a 0 cost clear (60% on AI, then 50%(of 40%) on trade). However, this leaves him with 1 mana, meaning he can't clear the 1/1, making him weaker against piercing shot. Though not significantly, since he should know the card in hand is quick shot (due to Barak drawing two and he have seen both the 1 and the 3, thus all quick shot must be in hand), so piercing shot on the gnoll would be lethal too.
Now, there is a Cub in hand. However, to play it, the quick shot and piercing shot cost a total of 7 mana. And he will need HP on top to lethal with piercing+quick. This means he would have to use all the mana on this, ergo tracking into piercing is no longer an option.
Which is why I advocate for full board clear with fire sale.
If he just trade.... that's strictly worth than AI as you would only have 33% chance of finding a 0 cost out than AI's 60%.
P.S. I'm not sure why I thought AI only granted 33% chance of winning... it's 60%. The chance of NOT winning is 4/6*3/5=40%. As you need two draws that are not first flame or brain freeze out of 6 cards.
Edit: On second thought, trading after AI is worth it. At that point, it's basically 50% chance to win(this is assuming AI failed to find the out). Assuming he always win next turn and the extra piercing out makes his chance of unable to survive to next turn go from 15% to 20%, trading gives him 50% chance to win this turn, 10% to lose and 40% to win next turn, 90% chance to win. Whereas not trading means 0%(again, AI already failed) this turn, 15% to lose and 85% to win next turn, only 85% total. Taking the extra gamble would have been worth it.
Good game! :)
unlucky judgement, huge misplays at the end.
why not clear board at first and 7 damage at face?