A different perspective on the Invasion of Ukraine
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- Опубліковано 5 кві 2022
- Russian invasion of Ukraine caught many as a surprise because it was considered an irrational move and therefore it could not happen. It seems that there is a flawed understanding of what the Russian government considers to be rational. In this video I will give my thoughts of why Russia invaded Ukraine.
Sources:
Maps: Google Maps
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ru...
Economic statistics: www.worldbank.org/
Putins approval rating: www.statista.com/statistics/8...
Assets used:
upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Well,_J...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Of...
upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...
If you want a perspective from Russia, then the guy, who translates my videos into Russian made a video on his own. It is good.
ua-cam.com/video/s2b6qR0c6QM/v-deo.html
but why you didn't mention how could china influence the conflict?
🔥When Putin announced the invasion, he explained in detail the reasons, goals and methods in the upcoming military operation. If you have not studied his words, your versions of what is happening are just your fantasies, and the fantasies of the media of Putin's opponents. And if you want to know what the segregation of Russians in Ukraine is, write in UA-cam "mass neo-nazi marches in Ukraine today".
We have plenty of propoganda that talks about their perspective . The main reason. Jealousy and empire building.
This is the attitude of Russia towards Ukraine summarized by Zbigniew Brzezinski ua-cam.com/video/ow_xeYUfSVI/v-deo.html
and Russia has had a recent history of being aggressive to its neighbors ua-cam.com/video/Bb0hSY1YfPM/v-deo.html
Very good video. I only had 1 thing that I disagreed with, Near the end, You said there might be another cold war with russia. I don't believe this is the case. Just compare the GDP numbers. The west gets 40 times more money than russia per year (GDP). So I really doubt that a cold war between the west and russia would actually happen. Its more likely that china becomes the wests main competitor. with russia being more of a barrier for the west, But not an actual threat
I can't wait for Eastory to make an army movement video on this war once its over.
I already have some good ideas on how to cover it.
@@Eastory i have been waiting for this very much
@@Eastory Question: What army unit would be for each circle, does it was a division or something?
@@Yamanoteline30 probably make the bubbles brigades and regiments since that's how Russian has deployed its army.
it won’t end in your lifetime cause it will go nuclear
The economic growth of 2004-2012 was associated not only with oil prices, but also with the active development of markets. Many Western companies invested in Russia because there was cheap labor and unfilled niches. From about 2010-2012, Russia fell into the middle income trap. But instead of reforming the economy, Putin decided to annex Crimea and introduce so-called "anti-sanctions" - to free up domestic markets for local monopolists.
I agree with the market reforms part. I did simplify it in the video and did not mention it.
How precisely could Russian economy be reformed for common good?
Funny thing is - Ukrainian economy spiked just as much. Had troubles until ~2000, was best at 2005-2008, was ok-ish until 2014, and had it currency devalue triple after Russia went under sanctions. Curious isn't it?
@@samhamsord7942 Russia was one of the biggest Ukraine trade partners before 2014 and enjoyed huge discounts on oil and gas. After the coup that all went to trash.
RIP Vladimir Volfovich
ZHIRINOVSKY
He foretold all this shit.
All of it.
I usually don’t comment on videos but I found your video very insightful and educational.
Best damn explanation I've seen yet. Keep up the good work, this is excellent.
Very good analysis, but I must disagree with one thing. The west is not always against the oligarchies, if they are pro-western, as in Hungary, Turkey and Montenegro. So, the line between the democratic west and oligarchic east DOES exist, but is not as strong as someone might believe.
100%, my main complaint with this otherwise great video
This isn't even exclusive to Eastern Europe. For example, S. Korea is the definition of an oligarchic nation thanks to Chaebols. But unlike Russia, the whole nation is considered extremely western leaning, arguably more than Europe.
This applies not only to the oligarchs but to everything else. You can be corrupt, commit ethnic cleansing, steal billions, even be fascist. If you are pro-Western everything is just fine.
The analysis awful, it's end to end agitprop.
Just the one thing, this is riddled with assumptions, agenda driven supposition, dishonest spin and finally bollox.. Search for yourself, don't swallow lazy western reportage people ❤️
The graphics and maps in your videos are always superb. Watching these are both informative and digestible.
As what said. A GOOD COMMUNIST IS A DEAD COMMUNIST
.
RIP Vladimir Volfovich
ZHIRINOVSKY
He foretold all this shit.
All of it.
But this time he has really outdone himself
Nothing can beat those animated frontlines :)
@@AdamRusiecki - With bs, cuz he gets everything wrong.
Loving these videos. Very succinct and informative.
I totally agree with your opinion.
Kyiev
Great to have independent opinion from the 3rd side and point of view!
Actually Russian military has very little influence in policy making - a result of constant struggle between them and inner security services which military was losing since WW2. There is a reason why military coups were not even attempted in Russia in times of political turmoil since then.
That is a good point. I was thinking myself of how much does the military have power or is it more that the security services control everything.
@@Eastory Two most prominent generals that went into politics in 1990-ies died under mysterious circumstances...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lev_Rokhlin
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lebed
Some popular warlords from L/DNR were also assassinated.
Russian security services are very serious about keeping military subservient.
@@konstantinriumin2657 Well, I don't know about the rest, but Alexander Lebed died, because his helicopter flew into the electric power lines and crashed. Such happen because a lot of politians and high military ranks think that they are the bosses and can order anything. He ordered his pilot to fly in bad weather conditions with poor visibility. Everybody on board died, sadly. The rest is just speculation.
@@konstantinriumin2657 So does that mean that the old NKVD nets after Stalin's death and the execution of Beria were still up and reconstituted as the KGB?
I remember reading memoirs of Eisenhower and his first meetings with Zhukov after WW2, he stated that Zhukov was very out going and extremely likable, but after Khrushchev came to power and his later meetings with the General, Eisenhower stated that Zhukov's outlook had changed, as in he was very soft spoken and melancholic.
Does that mean Khrushchev had done something to Zhukov even after he helped him take power from Beria?
Strange. I also heard reports that Zhukov was decidedly against forcing Soviet power in Europe through military power, as it was stated he was against sending troops into Hungary which obviously occurred anyway.
@@peterbarca8783 Zhukov was sidelined and then essentially sent into internal exile by Khrushchev. Ironic, since Zhukov helped Khrushchev so much in his rise to power
Maybe you could do WW1 on the western or eastern front. It’ll be difficult to map the unit positions as they don’t really change but there is alot to talk about for supplies, attrition, naval battles etc
I believe he already has one on WW1, though mostly on the Western front. I believe the Eastern front could contain enough content for an episode.
I sometimes get these suggestions, but as of yet I am not sure about it, because there is no consistent mapping of WWI.
There is a nice french channel that make them already. Check out "sur le champ"
@@Eastory you should do some modern day videos, like us invasion of iraq, afghanistan etc
@@Eastory Where do you usually get the unit mapping from?
Well said.
As a history enthusiast, i agree looking at these conflicts from the very outside(Hawaii) with your views as reasonable and well researched.
This is a really great video. It explains some fairly complicated international politics in an easily understood way.
The military isn’t the ones with too much influence on the US government, the military industrial complex are the ones who do.
Great point, USA is a corporate oligarchy, not a military hunta
The Israel lobby and their neoconservative lapdogs, more than any other political/economic force, pushed America into war with Iraq
@@icebrakertrotsky97 agreed even as an american
Pretty much, but the warmonger/imperialist attitude of americans along all their history and partly because of oligarch-owned media propaganda did have plenty of responsibility for the wars too.
They see themselves as "the white saviour", teaching democracy and liberalism to the savages
@@Franfran2424 America’s warmongering and imperialist attitude can indeed be traced back to the attitude of our oligarch-owned media. But if you were to look into the ethnic backgrounds of those media oligarchs I guarantee you’ll find that “white saviorism” isn’t their motivating impetus.
2:55 "In Russia the military and the security services are effectively responsible for running the country."
I've seen at least Kamil Galeev argue on Twitter that it's only the security services that run Russia. Military is low in the dominance hierarchy and deliberately kept weak so it can't challenge the security services' domination. I don't myself know enough to say whether he's right or wrong.
You know some important russian general? This is also answer why russian services are good but military weak.
PS.
Last charismatic general died in "accident", Alexander Lebed,
he was a competitor in the presidential election for Putin.
@@E.Wolfdale just as Lev Rohlin
Thanks, this is a good point.
Yep
It is very funny to watch how people who do not live in Russia talk about conspiracies of Freemasons, the FSB, totalitarianism and the like. You sit and think "ahah, that's how it turns out, but I didn't know)))"
Hi, a new subscriber here and I came due the suggestion of The Vlogging Thru History channel.
Overall I tend to agree with your analysis, however since the very beginning of the Russian invation of Ukraine I can´t help to ask myself: what´s the logic behind starting a campaign in Winter?
Specially considering Russia took advantage from Winter not once but twice in his history: first against Napoleon in the early XIX Century and second against the Germans in WWII.
The only reasonable explanation that occurred to me is: LAND; and not every land but one of the richest in an agricultural way. If the Russian Federation wins this war, they will master circa 22-25% of the European pastures.
In the very first part of the present Century, Putin had managed to overcome the past difficulties to extract massive amounts of gas and oil witch provided him and his oligarchs a LOT of money. The next logical step is to provide western Europe what they need the most after "hooking them" with energy, witch is: FOOD. And THAT will be coming from Ukraine.
Once (and IF) Putin succeeds with the invation, he will be able to make Europe and part of the rest of the western world "eat from his hand" by selling what western civilization needs the most: ENERGY AND FOOD, and become once again the eastern leader.
With that accomplished, even China would be forced to look at the Russian Federation with some respect.
I´m not an historian, neither I pretend to be; these were just the humble thoughts from an average middle-aged man who is interested in geo-politics.
Greetings to you and every one else from NE Patagonia, Argentina. BTW: I very much like your detailed work.
main part of food from Ukraine and rusia goes to Afrika. its Algeria, Egypt etc.
also food technologies not very high and effective so I dint think your opinion is correct.
You doing good job!
I like all of your content sir!
Keep it up.
The conflict has not one reason, but a whole list
Yeah there are so many factors, geoplitics,economic reasons, hating the west, demographics,history, possible future and much much more
@@you-know-who5657 we don't hate the west, it's just that the west does what it wants with no consequences
so having the west stockpile weapons, possibly nuclear, on Russia's border, is unacceptable
this show how stupid many content creator thinking they are smart
🟡🟣 How it'll end
👉ua-cam.com/video/v11I_rm_Ymo/v-deo.html 🟡🟣
@@you-know-who5657 yep, I totally understand the invasion. Why the fuk would you build nato shelter 400 kilometres from Moscow. Biden said it 20 years ago.
It should be noted that in a country run the FSB approval ratings should be taken with a grain of salt. They may show a tendency, but that tendency may be incredibly skewed. Same with military statistics, demographics, polls etc. It's not like Western governments don't skew statistics when they have the chance.
You are correct, of course. It is difficult to believe that Putin's net approval has never been negative in his whole 20+ year rule.
@@Eastory “Pension Reform” dealed a huge blow to it
True. A lot of Russians don't support putin, but sure do hate Ukrainians and USA. Therefore support current actions, and would any other regime that would replace putin, but continue current political movements.
@@samhamsord7942 We do not hate Ukranians or USA(as people) but we do hate their actions against our country, unlike the majority of world who hates not only our actions but Russian people and everything related to Russia as of now.
RIP Vladimir Volfovich
ZHIRINOVSKY
He foretold all this shit.
All of it.
I would like to Peter Zeihan's evaluation on this summary, because while it focuses on political/military issues, it basically follows much of what he sez in terms of that AND how natural resources/economies and demographics are also driving these strategic decisions in Moscow. The fact that you came to very similar conclusions though speaks volumes about your insight...and I think your predictions in the short term at least, appear spot on! Great summary!
Videos like these are excellent ways of taking action to prevent conflict. Highlighting possible genuine motivations for impactful decisions (like the annexation of crimea) is great at getting people to think differently. Good job 👍.
As long as people think like you, you mean?
@@miggyferreira ask yourself why every time on the TV you see money and weapons being given to Ukraine, but never you see world leaders saying we must try and make peace. they want the war to continue, they dont care about Ukraine.
@@miggyferreira Please explain what you mean here.
Nice to see your coverage of this event. Looking forward to more content
As an international politics student, I am an aggressive realist. John Mearsheimer is the best representation of my views I could find online. That last bit about finding the cause of the war is very significant because the problem is that we're all coming to different conclusions. The US foreign policy people, the same who wanted to go into Iraq and pursue the other foolish policies that have deteriorated the US's reputation believe that this was all Putin, he's the second Hitler etc. I believe that if we don't recognize basic realist great power logic, this will happen again and again. Russia said Ukraine couldn't join NATO. That's that. The US said Cuba couldn't have foreign troops and missiles there. That's that. Our failure to understand each other's red lines has got everyone into trouble time and time again.
For me the most scary part is that this war was easily avoidable if we just said "NATO won't accept Ukraine's admission into it". However, the Taiwanese-Chinese war in the future will be much harder to avoid, and even harder to keep the US out of it, because it is both a red line for the US and for China. This is how great power wars begin. China wants it because it considers it part of China and needs to break out of the US led cage around it. The US needs to keep China in the cage and needs to reassure its allies in the Pacific (Korea, Japan, Philipines) that it will protect them, as leaving Taiwan alone against China will assure the US loses its allies there.
In conclusion, I believe the US's and the EU's (although people like Merkel knew Ukraine in Nato was a bad idea as far back as 2008) foreign policy doctrines are ill equiped to prevent the next century defining war, China's reconquest of Taiwan. The major issue is that there's too much invested from both sides in Taiwan. Ukraine wasn't important to the US, which is why it was foolish to cross Russia's red line when we weren't willing to fight for it, but Taiwan is. In making a final judgement, the China-US war of 2030 is inevitable due to the immutable nature of the situation.
Taiwan is? Speaking for which countries? No same citizens wants to fight for another just because of some hazy and vague examples of freedom and democracy, not when the body bags start Piling. US can’t even win against Iraq and Afghanistan lol😂
@@regizeelement8511 you obviously didn't get it. Read his comment again
TrifarianBoi, where are you from?
@@regizeelement8511 The US army defeated the Taliban and Iraqi armies. But surprise surprise, the US army isn't exactly built for nation/democracy building. In regards to your Taiwan comment, are you contesting whether or not it's strategically important for the US? Because it is. It's the first line of defense against a rising pure rival to the US.
@@LiveYourLifeWithJoy I'm European, currently studying in the UK.
As a Russian, I would say that you missed one important thing - the Russian Navy was located in Crimea, which was of strategic importance, since the collapse of the USSR, this location was leased to Russia by Ukraine, but understanding in what way further relations with Ukraine will develop, Russia went ahead of the curve and took a place for the fleet itself.
not for long
You can also have Navy in Novorossijsk. Black sea is not that valuable 😊
@@MichaelSmith-kb3mq 💀You seriously think Ukraine has ANY chance of re-taking Crimea? I didn't know we've gone that low, and that people could be so dumb
@@andrerothweiler9191 What do you mean black sea is not that valuable? It's Russias only western port that isn't frozen for most of the year
@@iscuit Remember what you commented 2 years from now.
This was a very watchable video, entertainingly presented and an interesting take on the reasons behind this conflict. One thing I would say about this take on these events is it seems to have Russia/Putin acting in nearly a vacuum or bubble with very little contemplation on how other external powers act for their own self-interest which may or may not cause reactions. Its more like a tennis match where people are serving the ball backwards and forwards, each person reacting to the latest set of events.
Thank you!
Hey, I'm just an ukrainian guy and I understand that our demands are too high for other countries which already have their own problems to deal with.
So feel free to stop giving us so many precious resources as they are being wasted by us without achieving much. Thank you and Slave Ukraine! 🇺🇦
Did you get that tennis match in the end of the comment from Death Note?
@@Eastory why didn’t you mention that the “opportunity” that presented itself was a US supported Coup which removed a pro-Russia president and a new Ukrainian government extremely hostile to Russia handpicked by the US through Victoria Nuland?
One thing that i admire a lot from you Eastory, was that you had almost immediately, on multiple occasions, had made statements about how much of this was your THEORY, and basically lots of disclaimers before going forward with your ideas. one thing that most of the other videos covering the conflict do that makes me angry (like vox, vice, johnny harris, etc) is that they all always write “EXPLAINED!” and go forward with blabbering their own ideas and theories about the conflict but never once use those words before diving in, they never say theories, or their ideas, they all always claim what they say is 100% accurate and is literally the official explanation when it is obviously NOT! many including johnny even have inaccurate and completely wrong information throughout their video, yet them trying too hard to look like the officials”explained” video for everyone, they end up spreading lots of misinformation and fake news just because of that.
i appreciate your responsible nature to give disclaimers and clearly talk without any facade behind your words, always doing an amazing job, keep it up brotha!!
This author tells Russian propaganda. He did not say that the Russians are at Ukrainian military posts and are blocking the defense of Ukrainian territory. He did not say that in 2008, Putin agreed with Western politicians to reject Ukraine's membership in the EU and NATO. He stated that the population of Crimea and Donbas wanted to separate. Better listen to Ukrainian sources. You have been deceived.
This is good observation. We always view things subjectivity but a few of us choose to admit.
couldn't agree more. i disagree with many things about this video but it made me massively respect the effort he made to illustrate his point.
@@miguelaguirre2873can u tell me which parts you disagree with him?
@@BlockdaCoolguy there's no need to
2:50 I would say it's much more likely the opposite: military high command opposed the US invasions more than the politicians. Post 9-11 votes with regards to use of force abroad were voted through congress almost unanimously.
Your theory is very interesting and is complementary to the realpolitik analysis of Nato expansion. You add a psychological aspect which is often neglected in war but which is quintessential.
It’s not a theory. He just said what is really happening in Russia.
Yo dude I think it would be an amazing idea to make some shorts on shorter conflicts or parts of conflicts like the Winter war or the Prussian Austrian war
I have really enjoyed your approach, although it obviously is a little biased. I am an international relations graduate and we have studied a conflict in Ukraine for quite a while now. The general consensus among the most capable conflictologists from my university is that the 2014 revolution could've been ignored by the Russian decision makers, if not for a one single factor. As you've rightfully stated, the Orange revolution have established a pro-Western government, but although there were "gas wars" and other conflicts between our countries, that have never reached a boiling point. So why the 2014 revolution was different?
Kharkov agreements. What is that? That was the document that addressed one of the most important issues of the Russian-Ukrainian relations since the collapse of the USSR - naval bases in Crimea. The issue of naval bases and the Black sea fleet were central to the relations between two counties even in the 90-s. So Kharkov agreements have prolonged the usage of the Ukrainian soil in Crimea by Russian Federation in 2012 and one of the first things the new Ukrainian government has done was denouncing these agreements.
This was not really covered by the Russian media, it was kind of a footnote to all the things that were happening, but it is believed that it was a turning point.
It's not a little biased but totally biased. But you made a good point, also the Kharkiv agreements were not the only fuse, you have to consider the coup with help from the west and a significant spearhead done by the nazis at that time (which is well documented leaked Nuland phone calls). The coup started after Yanukovich rejected the ransom from IMF, he was between two fences, on one hand, he had Russia with its "sanctions on imported goods, but Russia offered to buy out their state bonds and more. On the other hand IMF and further debt increase with cuts into education and social securities and many other things.
BTW: the new government didn't have enough votes to be legitimate back then.
You could make a long list to add to Kharkov. 1. NATO declaring Ukraine membership as a goal. 2. NATO expansion to 14 new states. 3. CIA interference in Georgia. 4. Missile basing in Romania & Poland after the US dumped the medium range nuke treaty and Open Skies. 5. Coup government law on nationalities 6. Poroshenko's assault on Donbas civilians and address to the nation on TV: "Our children will go to school and institutes, their children will cower in basements. That is how we will win this war." 7. Arrest of opposition politicians and shutdown of opposition media. 8. Right Sector control of the Interior Ministry. 9. Continual rocketing and shelling of Donbass up to the invasion.
The coup in Ukraine did not establish a "pro-Western" government. It established a corrupt government willing to move toward the $$ and willing to use the muscle of Azov & Right Sector on the streets to do violence. You are spot on about the bases, and the scenario was being primed by huge IMF loans to Ukraine, so large they would never be able to pay them back. This is the leverage for the US to offer to trade base rights for loan relief. If you want to know what the Russians think, simply listen to them. A lot of unavailable presentations are on the channel Michael Rossi Poli Sci. Check it out.
@@johnsmith1474 Thanks for another source, the more the better.
BTW: Never thought that there could be a possibility of a discount on loans from IMF in exchange for NATO bases (even tho there are already training bases in there). Any documents for that?
@@plama1192 The idea about loans and bases is my own, a conjecture based on the underhanded activity by the US up to this point. The US sees no limit to it's right to meddle in foreign spaces, so you
As you know Ukraine's officials at the highest level of government have not been the most ethical. As the historian Stephen Kotkin mused in a lecture (paraphrase), "The easiest & fastest way to deposit $100million in a Swiss bank is to give $1billion in aid to Ukraine." It's common knowledge that Ukraine has been accepting all manner of offensive weapons from the West right under the noses of the Russians, and was selling off some of that cache to fundamentalists in the Mideast. The level of cash flowing to Ukrainian oligarchical politicians makes the nation open to any kind of deal. This is how nations come to be owned by The West.
I presume you have delved into the library of video on thegreyzone, including the excellent lengthy piece with Scott Ritter. UA-cam channel Globaltreepictures has two useful documentaries "Ukraine on Fire" & "Revealing Ukraine," both rather tawdry but full of decent interview with high ranking Ukrainian politicians from around the Maidan coup including Medvedchuk. I don't suggest videos are better than study as you seem to be doing, just adding sources.
@@plama1192 Good point
I always really like your videos, especially the blow by blow brakedown of major battles. When the full story comes to light I look forward to your video on the Ukranian War so we can see just how they managed this impressive feat.
I am already thinking on how to cover it the best.
@@Eastory Great. Cant wait to see your video!
To do this, you need to know the real events. Both sides are now saying what suits them.
@@Eastory Если будете освещать, то освещайте полностью события которые происходят в мире, как на самом деле начался этот конфликт? как сотрудничали Россия с Украиной? как на Украине произошел Государственный переворот вооружённым путём, который финансировал США, ведь есть даже ролики где они поддерживали этот переворот и заявили что отправили 5 млн долларов (это такая у них демократия?), какие отношение между Россией и западом были? Какими способами Нато создавало влияние над странами. Вы выставляете плохой только одну сторону.
@@user-qw5eb2sl6i ну с текущей ситуация, где Россия терроризирует мирных жителей и шантажирует мир ядерной катастрофой на ЗАЭС, что рассказывай за грешки запада, что нет, Россию от статуса государства-террориста это не обелит.
if only your explanation was that simple andcorrect, but I really enjoyed this video and graphics
Interesting analysis, still holds up in July 2023, but I also love the humility you show at the end.
Another superb content! Love from The Philippines! 🇵🇭❤️
What a finish. "I feel u bare responsibility. I may be wrong about some stuff. " I wish more people were like you, sir.
1:23 Hahaha Żubrówka. I love you mate XD Best regards from Poland
One year later and you were not wrong about the stalemate
I watched the latest WW2 channel livestream and indy & sparty answered some patreon's question if you were still working with the team. Glad to see that you're working on the stuff that you enjoy most while also creating a format of mapmaking for future creators. You have the respect of everyone. Always looking forward to your videos.
Thanks! I can't say that I enjoyed making this one, but I did find it necessary to be made, because I personally felt responsibility.
RIP Vladimir Volfovich
ZHIRINOVSKY
He foretold all this shit.
All of it.
@@user-jv3mm6vt6e foretold what exactly? The guy was a moron and the world is well to be rid of him.
@@Eastory
Why did you feel responsibility?? 🤔😅🙃
Thanks for the video. As a citizen of Russia (and I am against the war), I will share my observation. The situation compared to the annexation of 2014 is noticeably different. If 8 years ago there was a lot of enthusiasm for the bloodless annexation of Crimea, now the attitude to what is happening is extremely ambiguous.
It is very difficult to assess Putin's current rating because the polls are subjective. Now only 3-6% of respondents are ready to answer questions about politics. In autumn, this figure was about 30%. Basically, refusals occur immediately after a person finds out the topic of the survey.
I'd like to take a look at another study. At the end of March, people in Russia were asked: "What do you feel about the future of the country?" Only 29% answered "inspiration". 26% said "sadness", 25% - fear, 16% - devastation.
The general mood is influenced by the fact that the economic situation is not getting better. Even if people don't link the rise in prices to the war, they are piling up resentment. It will definitely come out at some point.
And the most important thing. Russian power has always become weaker if it loses a war.
Thank you! This is very valuable insight. What would you predict is the likely outcome of all of this for Russia in the short term? I assume that you suggest that there will be serious unrest?
It is very difficult to make forecasts because the situation is changing too quickly. Protests are hardly possible now, although in my native St. Petersburg in February and early March there were quite large rallies. Even the elections to the Duma in 2021 did not provoke such a reaction. But today in Russia there is a law on "discrediting the armed forces": for protesting, you can get a fine of 500 euros, but in some cases the "criminal" faces up to 15 years in prison.
At the same time, power in Russia does not look unified, as it was in January. There is a feeling that Putin and his entourage realize that they are trapped and do not understand what to do. War is very expensive, and it is difficult to continue it under sanctions. The Ukrainian army has a huge motivation, but there is no particular reason for Russian soldiers to participate in this "special operation". There are timid reports that some units refuse to go to the front (for example, the famous airborne division from Pskov).
Since the beginning of the war, opponents of the war often mention the word 'tabakerka' - a snuffbox. This is a reference to the events of 1801, when there was a conspiracy against Emperor Paul. He was killed with a snuffbox. Such a scenario is possible, but no one can give a guarantee.
One thing is clear: whoever is after Putin, he must become anti-Putin. This is an old Russian tradition: each successive ruler built a policy on the negation of the predecessor's regime. And in the current conditions, this is mandatory, because only in this way it will be possible to achieve the removal of sanctions.
@@YI-well I feel that you provide a better understanding of some aspects than one can read from media and analysts. It is much appreciated.
@@Eastory well, it just my feelings and impressions. Besides I read Russian media (not propaganda) too :)
@@YI-well Почему-то мне кажется что эти санкции не снимут даже если Путин уйдет.
do a mapping video about this war
You do such an amazing job. Giving context when needed and very concise.
Also for in depth historical and geopolitical context I recommend you check out Oliver Stone’s documentary Ukraine on Fire here on YT
0:41 "Use force to make friends" cracked me up. Funny cuz it's true.
Tbh they tried that with Georgia but yea, we are still ok here
@@Patohd69 They also tried that in Afghanistan where my ancestors were chilling.
2.1 million dead civilians later with our president Mohammad Daoud Khan and his entire family executed I think we made our final decision regarding the idea of an alliance with Russia.
Or at least I would have had we need had to leave during that massacre.
Really liked the perspective. A new Iron Curtain will be over Europe, not a nuclear one, but a technologically one. You mentioned South Osetia and Abkhazia but I think Transnistria was worth mentioning at least a few words or NATO intervention in Yugoslavia.
NATO orchestrated the division of Czechoslovakia into less than the sum of its parts. Ukraine and Russia are targets for the same 'balkanization' were seeing applied to Iraq and Syria, Sudan, Libya and other places in the Middle East, too.
on one side of the curtain they will heat with wood, and on the other with gas :-D
This author tells Russian propaganda. He did not say that the Russians are at Ukrainian military posts and are blocking the defense of Ukrainian territory. He did not say that in 2008, Putin agreed with Western politicians to reject Ukraine's membership in the EU and NATO. He stated that the population of Crimea and Donbas wanted to separate. Better listen to Ukrainian sources. You have been deceived.
@@aloisschicklgruber9807 russia is a federation, so yeah balkanization is gonna happen after putin dies.
@@aloisschicklgruber9807 source?
Please, make video about war itself: strategy, tactics, and problems of sides
I worked with Russian citizens. They are/were very diligent and thorough. They saved our butts many times w/ engineering repairs overnight while we slept. It's really too bad they don't have the ability to live the lives they deserve. They are smart and want to be productive. I hope the best for them. Hope we all make it through this!
Friend, don't believe this ridiculous propaganda. The video does not say a word about why Putin actually took Crimea in 2014 and started the war in 2022. Putin took Crimea because it is the most important naval base for Russia, and after the coup in Ukraine, the new authorities began to say that they would break the agreement on the location of the base in Crimea. And Putin started the war in 2022 because the Ukrainian army had been shelling the cities of Donbass for 8 years. But for some reason, neither in the Western media, nor in this video, a word is said about this. With love from Russia
@@MirRussiaUkraine2024 I will add that shortly before 02/24/2022, the attacks on Donbass intensified many times. Zelensky, who was chosen "to end the war" in the EU, also threatened that they could develop "dirty" nuclear weapons.
@@MetalSlugX27 thanks
@@MetalSlugX27 what a bullshit...
@@MirRussiaUkraine2024 this is russian propaganda
Thanks for sharing your insights.
These edits are absolutely incredible! It's insane how far Eastory has come!
9:17
That's a really colorful narrative love it
Nice one, a straighthead theory and one of the popular theory what can u read in some political articles too.
Brilliantly put, Eastory! ...... You have talent! ...... Thank You!
Great video! The visuals and script are very well put together and there is a lot of insight. I think that this perspective downplays the value of the land that is being fought for--natural resources have a very strong influence in this conflict. However, I think that this video is a good high-quality resource for people to get a better understanding of the conflict! I would suggest that people also watch Real Life Lore's video on the topic which goes into a lot of detail about the resources which are involved in the conflict but doesn't have quite the same level of exploration into the social and systemics aspects as this video does. Thanks for making this. These truly are interesting times.
Did Putin attack simply become he want his approval rating more up. Isnt over 60% approval rating enough to win the election always, so why does he want his approval rating to over 80%?
I know Eastory works really hard on his videos all the time and they take a long time, but when the war is over it would be cool if he made a video in eastory style showing the invadion
Hi eastory, could you make a tutorial on how you make maps like yours?
Can we just appreciate how much the quality of the content from this channel has stayed consistent and how grown? It’s absolutely amazing.
I can say the same for your channel!
Personally think the quality of content has always been excellent. I don't think it has grown more just stayed consistently good. The video on the Estonian civil war and the WW2 maps are excellent.
As what said. A GOOD COMMUNIST IS A DEAD COMMUNIST
.
RIP Vladimir Volfovich
ZHIRINOVSKY
He foretold all this shit.
All of it.
@@Domhnall_A_Ghalltachd I absolutely agree. It has always remained consistently good. In fact his channel inspired me to make my Military History Channel.
While I agree that Iraq was a mistake; it wasn’t the military who pushed it; it was the corruption in regards to the defense industry as embodied in Cheney.
Richard Perle, Douglas Feith, Paul Wolfowitz, Bill Kristol.
No, it was Bush wanting Iraq not to be ruled by a sadistic fascist dictator.
@@DaDARKPass lol
And a jihadish ( crusading) president... The aggressors in wars usually are just Mirror images of each other. 👉
Does that mean that America will finally be punished for it's actions? Or will you be able to see George W Bush in daily live cus why not?
Good video - there should be more speculation like this.
1:15 LOL, the image of what appears to be a driver being robbed is hilarious and yet so true.
This video is incredible. This is the most clear-minded, reasonable take on the situation I've yet seen. It avoids many of the usual, tired talking points, but also gets straight to what a lot of others leave unsaid, or frustratingly avoid talking about. 100/10, seriously
As what said. A GOOD COMMUNIST IS A DEAD COMMUNIST
.
пиздеш
RIP Vladimir Volfovich
ZHIRINOVSKY
He foretold all this shit.
All of it.
This makes me happy
I agree, just one thing, he never mentions what else happened in Ukraine from 2014. to 2022. Like Ukraine was some innocent beacon of democracy that Putin for no reason needed to attack to raise his rating.
I did not expect Eastory to make a vid out of this war so fast already lol
Yes i thought he will make video after atleast 80 years
I think, for Russia, it's more about security. If Ukraine was to become a member of NATO, the alliance would have easy access into the most important parts of Russia. Potential nuclear weapons close enough for an effective first strike (?), wasn't tempting either. I'm not even sure Russia even planned to attack. Maybe they thought NATO or Ukraine would back down and formalize Ukrainian neutrality? And when that did not happen, Russia was pushed into a corner and thought this was their best chance to avoid a secutity disaster?
This video had way better logic
And saying that nato attacks russia is foolish, they would never do that and you know that
Ive got bad News for Russia. That was their dumbest Move. There best Units die in Ukraine right now. If Ukraine manages to get a big Win, like liberate Donezk, Luhansk or Crimea. Putin will be brought down.
@@BlockdaCoolguynato would definitely do that, after all nato was formed entirely to oppose Russia. Why do you think they rejected Russia from joining in 2002? Why do you think they are repeatedly funding this war? They act like the good guys but are realistically power and war hungry.
@@jullo12 check your facts before you go say something, then go see who accepted Russias membership and who didn't, as you need every members approval to join. And NATO isn't giving Ukraine aid, it's invidual members who have decided to. And US allies don't see the war the same way as Russians do. And also, they won't attack Russia, EVER. If you believe that Putin who said that NATO will attack Russia (who has nukes) and would risk the whole humanity, you are wrong. And also, your claims that Russia would be attacked by NATO is extremely unrealistic as Article 5 only works if a NATO country was attacked, not when a NATO country attacks other NATO country, Turkey and USA in Syria for example. Only invidual NATO countries have decided to help their allies, not all.
Very insightful video, thanks
Your continuel individual work and work with the World War Two team is to be admired. Thank you for spreading the truth in a consize narrative.
Very informed opinion and well presented. While I know little of Russia I believe your assertion is correct. Thank you for your video
you're finally back! ^^
awesome video and explanation!
Brilliant analysis. Subscribed!
I find your videos very interesting. Could you also do videos on the First World War? Like imperial Germany against Russia with the movement of troops
RIP Vladimir Volfovich
ZHIRINOVSKY
He foretold all this shit.
All of it.
Конец эпохи
I have tried to find, but there don't seem to be any detailed materials about the unit locations.
@@Eastory действительно смерть Жирика это конец эпохи.
my god your channel is fuckin brilliant! More videos pleaaaase!!
Missed this originally, only seeing it now after a year of hyper-warmongering and propaganda resulting in a fanatical drive for war escalation.
But even after only a month there was already plenty of this so it was a pleasure to hear a balanced, measured analysis of possible causes for the war from the Russian perspective.
And even given a additional year of development and Russian military incompetence, it seems like your initial analysis was pretty spot on. Prolonged stalemate. Ah well, hopefully those of us pushing for peace will have more success this year.
War mongering?
We all want this War to End. But for it to truly End, Russia must leave all occupied Regions. Starting with Donbass and Crimea and Ending with Moldova, Georgia and others.
I really like your style of storytelling. I hope in the future you will also make an animated front of war in Ukraine (like with the war of independence of Estonia, or the Soviet front during World War II) ;p
Yes, I will try to do it after the war has reached some sort of conclusion.
@@Eastory how russia lose sir? Russia use 150k+ to conquest ukraine which it has 200k troops and 40 millions people.
@@kimkim-mh7bv I agree. Due to this difference in the forces it cannot win.
@@kimkim-mh7bv russia use 200k troops only at east-south, ukraine army must cover also west-north
This author tells Russian propaganda. He did not say that the Russians are at Ukrainian military posts and are blocking the defense of Ukrainian territory. He did not say that in 2008, Putin agreed with Western politicians to reject Ukraine's membership in the EU and NATO. He stated that the population of Crimea and Donbas wanted to separate. Better listen to Ukrainian sources. You have been deceived.
I have heard once that Russia's overarching defense motivation is to never permit an 1940s invasion again. Every move that the then USSR took was to prevent invasion from the west. And it was a reasonable concern if you take their point of view. The problem was in the execution.
Now, after the fall of the USSR, Russia still has not lost that point of view- but things are different. They arent happy about the Baltics joining NATO, but they reasoned they could quickly re-occupy them in war. Ukraine and Belarus were entirely different. And Ukraine is the biggest western land border of all.
Russia, in their view, simply could not tolerate a pro-western Ukraine- militarily, financially, demographically. For largely being farms and swamp, it was one of the largest killing fields of WWII, and Russia needs to keep the west from massing on their border. With talk of EU armies, the US military being in erratic hands, and holding a majority stake in oil, Putin acted.
But all of this ignores that Russia is the world's foremost nuclear power. There is no credible threat of Western invasion and there never was. It was an excuse all along.
Who is massing on their border? Who would possibly want to atatck a nuclear-armed Russia? And WHY? Everything that EU needs from Russia it can just buy.
EU armies? Most EU countries don't even keep their commitments of 2% of GDP to defense. This is only starting to change now, in light of the current events. If any EU army will be created in the future it will be BECAUSE of Putin.
The only point I agree on is the economic aspect. Ukraine has untapped deposits of natural gas, oil, uranium, iron, titanium, etc. Independent Ukraine could be an export competitor to Russia. (That doesn't justify this horrible war, of course.)
@N Fels Do not make the mistake of thinking that the Soviets of the 1920's - 1950's are the same as Russians, or the Russians of today.
Modern Russians have no desire to invade and conquer Europe. All they care about is increasing their standard of living ... and you can't do that in the middle of a war.
it wasn't a reasonable concern, noone wanted to attack Russia and noone ever will want to attack Russia, because of nukes.
Russia has nuclear weapons, nobody is invading them.
Russian governments are more concerned about satellites and semi autonomous regions breaking away, which is inevitable anyway. It's an ego thing.
Stop to the War , this War is Cruelty 😢😭😔😭
When the conflict/war between Ukraine and Russia is over, if it ever will be. Then can you please make an animation, just like u have done with example the Western/Eastern Fronts in the Second World War. Would be amazing, if you could.
Really enjoyed the video! Great idea in 12:03 ! to figure out the reasons for conflicts is a good way to stop future ones, or at least make people more conscious about it (it's hard because the military-industrial complex is huge). Keep it up the good work 👍
Oliver Stone’s documentary “Ukraine on Fire” here on YT also discusses a lot of the historical and geopolitical context of this conflict I recommend you check it out
Wow! You made some statements, and then showed why you thought they were true. It was clear and logcal. I think you did a great job.
I think the Nord stream 2 deal is extremely important for this conflict.
Notice that back then Germany , Netherlands and Russia were all working together to create these Nord stream pipelines. But as they got finished, Russian "Gasprom" bought all rights to use the pipeline, turning it into a Russian monopoly. The Nord stream 2 line is a continuation of the Nord stream 1 project, which supplies most of Europeans gas. Nord stream 2 would have provided even more, which was kind of annoying for the USA, which of course also tries to sell gas to Europe.
How does Ukraine fit into it?
In Ukraine, a huge gas supply was discovered, and extraction of that gas started early 2022 (by Dutch Shell, who signed a 10 billion dollar contract for it). Shortly after, the USA put more pressure to cancel the Nord stream 2 deal, the same day it got cancelled Russia invaded Ukraine. Ukraine was effectively competing with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. And there's even more. Earlier, Ukraine was blamed of having stolen Russian gas, when Russian gas pipelines crossed Ukraine, and so now, it was mining gas on its own even further irritation Russia.
Let's not underestimate the role of the USA in this conflict.
After all, the son of Joe Biden was a member of a Ukrainian gas company for some time. When Trump made comments about this to the Ukrainian government, Trump was blamed of abusing his power to attack the Biden family, and he almost got impeached for this very reason. But I guess, the least we can say now, is that indeed it's crazy that the Biden family is dealing in Ukrainian gas just a couple of years before the war starts.
So, is this the first war about gas? - You may want to read about Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Venezuelan crisis, ... it's always about gas and petrol, which ultimately equals productivity, money, economic welfare, quality of life ...
So, its a little strange that you make this a purely media-centric conflict, which appears to be about sentiment and about feelings, while of course Economy or "just business as usual", has to be an equally big factor in the equation.
in fact, the Russian army, politics and economy have one specific direction - ensuring strategic security (that is why the Russian economy is so "viscous" - it is not capable of quick maneuvers, but external influence on it is also greatly reduced)
@@ahpunana2599 Precisely because the Russian economy is very adaptive (and it must be so in the unpredictable political and economic situation in Russia), Western sanctions have not done any tangible harm. Russian business was rebuilt instantly, literally in weeks.
Thank you 🙏 for your EXCELLENT work 👏
But I take exception with the US military wanting to invade Iraq or Afghanistan THEY DID NOT the politicians did.
Thank You for this video Eastory. What a delightful suprise!
I think this is a good analysis of why this is happening now rather than years before or years from now as well as the reason why Russia did things the way it did but not an entirely comprehensive explanation of all the reasons or why those reasons exist, but nevertheless a good video on an often overlooked aspect of russian motivations
I’d suggest you follow the money. Something like 80% of Russia’s oil and natural gas exports flow in pipelines which run through Ukraine. Also, Ukraine relatively recently was discovered to have vast natural gas fields beneath its eastern regions, the very same regions Russia now claims to wish to liberate from Ukraine.
Putin isn’t just the political leader of Russia, but has a large financial stake in its oil industry. He also stays in power by keeping the Russian oligarchs happy, which pretty much involves keeping them rich and making them even richer.
Putin is rich? Well done, well. He is so rich that Mi6, FBI, etc cannot fing anything expencive to drop it by "free, liberty, fair, democrate, civil, channels" (sponsored by USA and another colonies).
Your president Trump is businessman and everybody know it, so what? Your position is really strange. Is it yours? Please treat yourself and make good decisions
@@user-os3hy8is5t My point is that economics is a large part of foreign policy. One reason we typically require our Presidents to put their holdings into a blind trust is so that they are not using the power of the government to enrich themselves. Russia has no such tradition.
Invading Ukraine is not only a political move, it is an economic one. Russia stands to gain quite a lot economically if they can conquer eastern Ukraine, or all of it. A near monopoly over natural gas would keep Russian billionaires rich, make Putin richer, and maintain the stranglehold on the European market, which brings political power along with the wealth. Russia loses some of its clout when Europe has alternative sources for energy.
Was just pointing out that there are some reasons not covered in the video which should be kept in mind.
The main reason why countries left soviet union was most probably people oppression, not just only the trade limitations.
I seen some other media speculate Putin resorted to a military solution to gain popularity that war time presidents typically get. But politically speaking, the US was also using the military to solve things they were unable to and look at how that ended. The military isn't a nation building force. And for Russia, the military, more specifically invading isn't a foreign/public relations tool.
Нет. Это не главная причина. Главная причина в том, что Путин и российский народ имперцы до костей. Для них Украина - колония, которая не имеет права на собственное государство, а украинский народ не имеет права на свой язык и культуру.
I think your arguments make a lot of sense. I mean, this is how monarchs and rulers, from Alexander the Great to Napoleon, won the favour of their people for thousands of years: Bread and Games at Home and glorious Battle abroad
Yugoslavia was never part of the Soviet block as you are showing in your graphics ✌
Dear author, explain me, please, how far Ukraine went away to Europe from own oligarchs and the trade for the last 30 years? (Eu does not accept metals, any industry products cause of low quality, only crops and gas) just resourses
Whenever I see an Eastory video notification, best believe I drop everything and watch
Relatable
How can anybody invade Ukraine with only 200k men? In 1968 the USSR invaded small Czechoslovakia with 500k men. You need at least 1 million men to successfully invade Ukraine. Even someone with little knowledge of military affairs as me can figure it out.
Вы правы, но похоже Путин ошибочно считал, что народ Украины сразу перейдет на его сторону.
I am Russian, I do not support war, and I was in army in 2015-2016. I will try to explain. Russian military consists of 2 types of soliders(and NCOs): Conscripts (which was me, you have to serve for a year) and "professionals" who serve with contract and get payed for serving. (24$/month for conscript and 276$/month for contractor). During the 1rst Chechen war Russian Armed forses used conscripts in a conflict vs Ichkeria (my father was one of them). And it ended up badly, because 18-25 year old guys with little experience and motivation had a tough time learnin how to fight. This also affects public support greatly in a bad way. So Arm.Forsces are now trying to use professional soliders only. During my time in army almost every day they told us: sign up guys, come on, you will never find work outside. So my guess is that they sent pretty much every contractor they could scrap(exept for Navy, RVSN etc). Parts of contractors also serve in Armenian-Azerbaijani border, parts are in Syria. This ofc applies to privates and NCOs only, cuz officers are obviously are professionals. PMCs are also a thing, but they spread between Africa, Syria and Ukraine.
Yeah you got a point. But an important variable to think about is time period. Modern Militaries are actually smaller than their 1950 or 1960 counterparts. This is mainly because since technology and military hardware has improved drastically, nations can rely on technology rather than raw manpower to win their wars.
Furthermore, a military success is not necessarily only down to the numbers. Their tactics matter as well. If they use a strategy that leads to a lot of casualties then they will need more men.
So while it may seem strange that there are only 200k men. It was done in order to match the strength of the Ukrainian army. and when two armies are matched man for man , the one with the best technology usually win.
I hope this helped :)
Come on. You look at things as if armies are soldiers in some kind of computer game. That they will fight bravely and effectively to the last.
You know, if Ukraine was same inside as Russia - it's army would disband soon after invasion, and people wouldn't give a shit. Look at the Crimea - there were almost no fighting at all. They probably expected to have some bit of that success at least in some areas.
@@AntonTihonov Perhaps you can clarify for me. Conscripts are in normal brigades and divisions, correct? So if the conscripts are not supposed to fight, does the brigade go to war undermanned?
Quality is amazing but I would also include more on western hostility because NATO did promise Russia not to expand eastward when the USSR collapsed
"use force"
If your neighbour has no strength, nor backbone, he'll be used by the distant one.
Surely their can’t be any more Ukraine - Russian videos…
Eastory - “holy my beer”
Thank you for an excellent and very insightful analysis, Eastory! Your video addresses many aspects of this regrettable conflict, and I have great respect for your reflections about the potential impact opposing the war might have had (11:50), even your feelings of personal responsibility. That is true insight and humility on your part. Many people complain about the state of the world, and most have blame to assign to others. But relatively few consider their personal contribution to mankind's woes. As the Apostle Paul argues in his letter to the Romans, "all have sinned and fall short of the glory of God."
This author tells Russian propaganda. He did not say that the Russians are at Ukrainian military posts and are blocking the defense of Ukrainian territory. He did not say that in 2008, Putin agreed with Western politicians to reject Ukraine's membership in the EU and NATO. He stated that the population of Crimea and Donbas wanted to separate. Better listen to Ukrainian sources. You have been deceived.
Even if russia is a large enough,i got a feeling that such an similar thing happened to japan,after the sino-japanese war.Sanctions,disliked and surrounded by hostile neighbours (russia has at least more friends then japan) and pushes them to countries also disliking/hating the west (per ecample,japan was more pushed to germany and italy,and russia more pushed to china (i think))It´s needed to be looked from any angle/side.Good and bad side
Pretty accurate. Also, there are a large number of factories Ukraine that produce parts and components for the Russian military, especially their helicopters and jets.
Your honest attempt worths my respect but it lacks too many crucial factors. Thank you for trying to be objective! It`s rare predicament now.
Thanks for this. I don't think any one theory is perfectly aligned with reality, we need to look at many view points to get the full picture.
This is an interesting take on recent decisions...
Close, on point. 80-90%. Gud vid.
Thank you for your analysis. Although quite basic it is a good level to give me a better foundation for understanding Russian motivation than most mass media content.
UA was ranked 6th in Europe (only after UK, France, Italy, Germany and Spain, in that order) according to Global Firepower and 11th arms exporter in the World (thus strong military-industrial complex) according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. UA ground forces had cca3000 MBTs, cca2500 IFVs, another cca3500 armoured vehicles. Artillery included 500+ MLRSs, 1200+ selfpropelled artillery and 2200+ towed artillery. Air defence was organized in 4 air defence missile brigades and 7 (11 according to some sources) independent air defence missile regiments with 250 S-300PT/PS/V1 SAMs, 72 9K37 Buk SAMs, 100 9K330 Tor SAMs, 125 9K33 OSA-AKM SAMs, 150+ 9K35 Strela-10 SAMs, 70 2K22 Tunguska SPAAGMs, 300+ ZSU-23-4 Shilka SPAAGs and hundreds of S-2/S-3 Strela, Igla, Piorun and Stinger MANPADS. UA Air Force had 145-188 modern combat aircrafts including 37-70 Mig-29s and 32 Su-27s fighter jets, 12 Su-24s and 17 Su-25s attack jets and 47 L-39s light attack/trainer jets. What happened?.
Simply put, which is sometimes the best method.