Sign up for an IRA with iTrust today using this link: itrust.capital/David Will the Fed cut rates before inflation falls to 2% Comment below what you think will likely happen and don't forget to subscribe! FOLLOW THOMAS HAYES: Hedge Fund Tips: www.hedgefundtips.com Podcast: www.hedgefundtips.com/category/podcast/ UA-cam: ua-cam.com/users/HedgeFundTipsvideos Twitter (@HedgeFundTips): twitter.com/HedgeFundTips
I have a 3 fund portfolio consisting of 33% S&P, 33% Total stock, and 33% international. I feel a need to focus on complete growth so I went 100% stocks, but does the SP500 and TSM overlap too much to make sense holding both? However I’ve been in the red for a month now. I work hard for my money, so investing is making me a nervous sad wreck. I don’t know if I should sell everything, sit and just wait but watching my portfolio dwindle away is such an eye -sore.
..There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.
A good number of people discredit the effectiveness of financial advisors in exploring new markets, but over the past 10years I’ve had a financial advisor consistently restructure and diversify my portfolio/expenses and I’ve made over $3million in gains… might not be a lot but i'm financially secure. ....
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
Great convo! thumbs up . I had $250k waiting for rate hikes to end, but now I'm unsure as rates may keep rising and stocks falling. Confused and open to discussion
Don’t expect a soft landing. We know inflation still far from its 2% destination - the FOMC didn’t raise rates now, we can never fortell their moves these days
I agree It’s always good to have a balanced fin-plan. I work with a professional planner multi mrkt and fixed-income strategist in NY. the fixed income portion of your portfolio won’t simply serve as a buffer to the volatility of the equity portion of your portfolio, but will provide legitimate income.
I'm considering a review of my $600K portfolio allocations, particularly in light of the pause in interest rate hikes. I'm eyeing some high-risk, high-reward opportunities. Crypto and emerging markets seem intriguing. Anyone else exploring these?
It's crucial to have a well-thought-out strategy and not make impulsive moves based on short-term market fluctuations. Patience and a long-term perspective are key. You should consider a market expert to guide you.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfolio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay financially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on investments.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since l need all the assistance l can get. I just scheduled a caII.
Oh hell no. We can not call a soft landing until the FED cuts and the yield curve reinverts. If a month after that happens and nothing serious goes down. Then we can call a soft of no landing. No I think we get a liquidity, collateral, and credit crisis all at the same time. Soft landing was last year.
Outstanding information,with world crisis,rising inflation and economic instability due to poor governance, consider digital assets as a means to attain financial freedom.
Building wealth indeed requires good habits, like investing in solid opportunities such as digital currencies. Having a reliable investment manager and broker is crucial for making informed decisions and managing risks effectively.It's wise to seek out certified professionals who can provide efficient management.With diligence, descipline and the right guidance, success in wealth-building becomes more achievable.
I kind of interpret many post on here as acknowledging that we're reaching a market peak, in general, which is a well-supported thesis, and so if you've been sitting back chill while the gains roll in because bull market, well, time for traders to stay sharp, many are expecting volatility, probably a sharp downturn, smart traders should check their risk management is in shape, time to pay attention. The timing of his post vs what I know about the market supports that well enough. But yeah, the post could mean anything.....managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Sandy Barclays, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Exploring new investment opportunities demonstrates your proactive stance towards financial growth during these volatile times. Diversifying your portfolio can play a crucial role in effectiveIy mitigating risks..
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
Even with the right strategies and appropriate assets, investment returns can differ among investors. Recognizing the vital role of experience in investment success is crucial. Personally, I understood this significance and sought guidance from a market analyst, significantly growing my account to nearly a million. Strategically withdrawing profits just before the market correction, I'm now seizing buying opportunities once again.
Sandy Barclays’s understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. Her siignals are top notch..
With reduced inflation signals and the Federal Reserve halting rate hikes, what are the best additions to a $500K portfolio to enhance its overall performance?
Seek out stocks with a history of steady, increasing dividends, even during recessions. Alternatively, consulting a certified market strategist can provide guidance on which equities to acquire.
True, some employ hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfolio to defensive assets that perform well during downturns. Engaging market experts, as I did in 2019 during the COVID outbreak, boosted my $1M portfolio by 45% with assets recommended by my advisor.
Great conversation! Really enjoy hearing all the different thought processes of these experts. So many metrics and ways to look at the market. Many thanks!
This guy is not the most insightful. He talks like someone who has never had his views challenged by a fellow professional who has all the data and has seen many market cycles. Small cap earnings will be up 17% in 2025 based on consensus? Well, maybe... unless GDP growth slows materially.
I keep hearing this fantasy of household formation. No one is forming households, because people aged 30-40 can't afford houses even on 250-300k salaries! Kids are not even a dream at this point.
So true, we are 39, 2 kids, wife has $170,000 student loan debt, and we make $550,000. Because of the student loans and wanting to pay them off quickly, we can’t buy a house. If we did, and it was a nice sized house in our neighborhood in Minnesota, MINIMUM is $800,000, and that’s an outdated home that just has enough space.
@@Mav0585If what you are saying is true, you could be debt free with a paid off house within 3 years. Just cut a little of your expenses dude. 100k a years of expenses should be plenty, there are people living off of way less.
@Mav0585 As ridiculous as your comment is, I think what you're saying is is that anyone who makes less than about eight figures is having their standard of living expectations crushed by the high prices. In any case, with income like that, you could have $170,000 loan paid off before the end of this year.
This is not the 1940s. The amount of money in the system today is way higher than 1940s. They will end up destroying the dollar if they don’t keep interest rates elevated.
Rallying equities on the pivot? Probably for a while. Still have consumers completely priced out of everything. Deflationary pressure is a looming threat that could rain on the party. 24/25 YOY will be very interesting. You reap what ye sow.
To analyze the entire economy based on only the public markets, without “Main Street” (which makes up a much larger portion of the economy and without any visibility) is just misguided. With the “493” are already stagnant when the markets at all time highs, these companies and the private sector will be devastated when the recession finally reaches full momentum. The critique of the Chinese markets are way off because the government saw how public markets act irresponsibly and does not support real GDP growth and promptly popped that bubble. The pain is over in China and now they have all the fiscal tools to maneuver in any direction as they turn their attention towards growth through the BRICS alliance, without any lingering dead weight from western capital markets and currency threats.
Hey David --question, if Bank of Japan dumps US Treasuries in favor of buying their own currency-- could that cause bond market disfunction?, thus the fed can’t cut rates in the face of a slowing US economy? What will win out, the bond market or the economy?
The Fed will buy it all. They are likely doing it already am since Treasury debt yields dropped significantly in past mumber of weeks. So they're cutting rates already in effect by buying bonds, presumably through proxies. Japan has just under 1T of Treasuries supposedly. Fed bought about 3.5T in 2020, so 1T is easy for them.
@@Fearzero That is not the issue. Nvidia has been manipulating its performance with circular flows. That you don't understand this and infer @Boostlagg's observation to be anti-AI, rather than looking at the substance of the concern, reflects your immaturity. The clue is in linking Nvidia to Enron. Enron also used "money-go-rounds" or effectively self purchases/sales to boost its results. Nvidia is doing the same thing. The other extreme example is in China and local govt and LGFVs. In simple terms, you are the one saying "AI good, so Nvidia good." I guess it beats the hard work of learning enough to make informed decisions. I didn't see @Boostlagg offer an opinion on AI.
@@centurione6489 Ha dude I'm 53. You should really learn about AI. Even us old dudes can stay on top of tech. You probably don't understand bitcoin either. Smh.
The Fed and Jerome Powell want to go back to ZIRP and will do so soon. Let's all see what happens to this economy when he pivots and brings rates back to 2% or below.
Let's go back to the fundamental of the yield curve once it's uninverts do you get a massive recession it's happened every time since 1950 except for the one exception you talked about in the 1990s but that one was a very short time blip inversion
@@LarsLarsen77 Well they did not do a good job in protecting us from the GFC. In fact the way they responded, we still have not paid for that nonsense. They will make the same exact mistake again which will mean a crash and then hyperifnation. Real issues is the debts are getting so high... they is not much road left to kick the can down. Should the 10 year yield continue its upward climb... the government will be stuck. I think they are already stuck. No good way out of this mess now. I think folks are way to optimistic. I want to be... I just don't see it. The math no longer works.
Why would they abandon 2% if the Feds own bank stress test showed we could have a 50% market crash, 5 major hedge funds could go under and housing could lose 30% of its value but the banks they tested which are the most systemic would be just fine?
I keep believing recession's coming but it doesn't. A lot of factors point to it but we keep going up. I have to give some of these guests credence because they've been right longer than I ever thought they'd be. Just gotta stay prepared I guess.
I'm sick of price changes being talked about as if they are good (so do nothing) or bad (so fight them). They are just signals. Central banks trying to control price changes is what got us in this mess.
The only thing that matters today is liquidity in the financial sector. We have 10+ trillions of worthless debt being rolled over and no one cares as long as the interest vig is paid before the default clauses kick in. When this juggling act ends, the debt write-offs will be hugely deflationary.
I agree that liquidity, for the most part, is all that matters. If and when we experience a freeze up in the credit markets, we're going to see panic, feathers flying everywhere.
Who or what are we dept with - always wondered that - what happens if we don't pay the bill - who's going to collect - if someone owed me trillions id be wanting my $$ - so what country loaned us all that money ??
Why would the bill not be paid? The FEDs printer isn't going to run out of ink. This episode's guest already explained how it works, debt is repaid with devalued dollars.
@@ITH56 I actually looked it up after the vid - thank goodness for UA-cam free education just ask it a Q ! HAAA- the answer was we the people are being ripped off - go figure - BUT were cows were not going to do nothing about it -''MOOO!'' HAAA! peace and love
If the US default the dollar goes to zero. All the money and everything tied to it goes worthless. The implications are almost too bad to think about. But I think about it. My plans is to short when the FED cuts... make a crap ton of money (US dollars) on the crash and immediately put it into BTC, gold and sliver.
@@bpb5541 If it gets that bad i think $$ is the lest of our problems - wont need $$ - but better start learning being a cannibalism - folks being nice and fat - so we will be well feed for about a yr - with global warming humans will be all that's left!! HAAA!
I would love to understand how he believes earnings growth for non-tech sectors is going to increase. Consumers are maxing out credit cards and defaulting. GDP is slowing and it appears that earnings growth is a fantasy.
Thomas Hayes always very insightful and interesting to listen to. Great interview David, again. Questions+You dont interrupt. Guest tip; JC Parets, hes also great.
Definitely a Jack of all trades and master of none guest. Only take I agree with is the US demographic one which is inflationary. China doesn’t work because it’s a gerschenkron model of debt; you’re pointlessly digging through the weeds imo, invest elsewhere
The issue is like the BlackRock guy said: high interest rates are *paid out* into the bank accounts of the wealthy, the public is a net lender, so high interest rates *CAUSE INFLATION*
Buddy, these interest rates ain't high. Any money sitting in a "high yield" interest rate account right now IS STILL DETERIORATING due to high, persistent inflation. We're gonna get another acceleration of inflation into 2025.
Trump and Biden both said that they want zero or low interest rates. Which will happen after the election. For those of us who rent. We are f#u@ked. The 80% of the population who owns their home will be rejoicing.
How does inflation go down when student loans never have to be paid back and the government guarantees both first and second mortgages? We're in the crack up phase.
We are already seeing deflation in the car market. It is coming for everthing else ... nothing is going to be safe. All assets are about to get whacked. When? When the FED cuts and the yield curve reinverts. That is when. I have no idea when that is gong to happen... possibly Sept or possibly next year. But you will know the FED is not going to cut by 25 basis points they are going to cut by at least 100 when they get going. That is when you know we are in trouble.
In a sense, he's correct. The 2% inflation target has always been made up. There is no objective basis to maintaining inflation at 2%. It was simply nominated as a rate that wasn't too likely to cause major unexpected consequences or known adverse consequences.
This guy is low key crazy, mag7 having revenue growth because they serve business’. Consumer is crushed the 492 aren’t going to have significant revenue growth but it is likely business’ will have to cut back hurting the mag 7
This guest is not good, with all due respect. Or, I wish you would have pressed him on his views. He offered prognostications, and you should have pressed him for real rationales.
This dude just making a fantasy bull case because he wants more clients. Typical salesman, like a car dealer trying to get to sell you a $100k truck right now, or a house that overvalued by 40 percent. What about unemployment?
America 🇺🇸 loves 🥰 Hyper Inflation 💸 and will continue to print money 💵 and lower interest rates until the US 🇺🇸 Dollar 💵 collapses ! The American 🇺🇸 Government loves 🥰 Hyper Inflation 💸 so much they want the prices of everything to rise until the US 🇺🇸 Dollar 💵 is worth nothing ! Print ! Print ! Print ! Ha ! Ha ! Ha ! Hilarious 🤣
Those are both traded on the open market. The FED only controls the FED Funds rate or the amount borrowers (banks) charge eachother for overnight loans. I think the government have way less control of both of those than most think. Especially, with the debt levels so crazy high. Did you notice the 10 year surged last few days. That means folks are not buying the debt the Treasury is selling. This is the real risk no one is talking about.
Sign up for an IRA with iTrust today using this link: itrust.capital/David
Will the Fed cut rates before inflation falls to 2% Comment below what you think will likely happen and don't forget to subscribe!
FOLLOW THOMAS HAYES:
Hedge Fund Tips: www.hedgefundtips.com
Podcast: www.hedgefundtips.com/category/podcast/
UA-cam: ua-cam.com/users/HedgeFundTipsvideos
Twitter (@HedgeFundTips): twitter.com/HedgeFundTips
I have a 3 fund portfolio consisting of 33% S&P, 33% Total stock, and 33% international. I feel a need to focus on complete growth so I went 100% stocks, but does the SP500 and TSM overlap too much to make sense holding both? However I’ve been in the red for a month now. I work hard for my money, so investing is making me a nervous sad wreck. I don’t know if I should sell everything, sit and just wait but watching my portfolio dwindle away is such an eye -sore.
..There are many other interesting stocks in many industries that you might follow. You don't have to act on every forecast, so I'll suggest that you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best times to purchase and sell the shares or ETFs you want to acquire.
A good number of people discredit the effectiveness of financial advisors in exploring new markets, but over the past 10years I’ve had a financial advisor consistently restructure and diversify my portfolio/expenses and I’ve made over $3million in gains… might not be a lot but i'm financially secure.
....
Can you share details of your advisor? I want to invest my increased cash flow in stocks and alternative assets to achieve financial goals....
SUNITA SUZANNE BYG is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment...
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
Great convo! thumbs up . I had $250k waiting for rate hikes to end, but now I'm unsure as rates may keep rising and stocks falling. Confused and open to discussion
The stock market will go down further and goodluck on the fed pausing rate hikes w/ all the hawkishness that has failed to keep up with inflation.
If the unemployment rate is able to remain steady while the Fed hikes and inflation falls back to target, a soft landing might be on the table
Don’t expect a soft landing. We know inflation still far from its 2% destination - the FOMC didn’t raise rates now, we can never fortell their moves these days
Fixed income Tbills and bonds may work for you while you try to figure out the next entry point for stocks
I agree It’s always good to have a balanced fin-plan. I work with a professional planner multi mrkt and fixed-income strategist in NY.
the fixed income portion of your portfolio won’t simply serve as a buffer to the volatility of the equity portion of your portfolio, but will provide legitimate income.
I'm considering a review of my $600K portfolio allocations, particularly in light of the pause in interest rate hikes. I'm eyeing some high-risk, high-reward opportunities. Crypto and emerging markets seem intriguing. Anyone else exploring these?
It's crucial to have a well-thought-out strategy and not make impulsive moves based on short-term market fluctuations. Patience and a long-term perspective are key. You should consider a market expert to guide you.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfolio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay financially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on investments.
Hope you don't mind if I ask you to recommend this particular professional you use their service?
Her name is “Annette Christine Conte” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since l need all the assistance l can get. I just scheduled a caII.
“The fed was wrong about inflation being transitory but they are totally right about a soft landing” - millionaire hedge fund managers
Oh hell no. We can not call a soft landing until the FED cuts and the yield curve reinverts. If a month after that happens and nothing serious goes down. Then we can call a soft of no landing. No I think we get a liquidity, collateral, and credit crisis all at the same time. Soft landing was last year.
Real rate off inflatition is 10%.
So "abandon 2%" is meaningless misdirection.
That’s what the govt is doing. Fooling its debt and tax slaves as usual
It's their poopoo measure.
Outstanding information,with world crisis,rising inflation and economic instability due to poor governance, consider digital assets as a means to attain financial freedom.
Building wealth indeed requires good habits, like investing in solid opportunities such as digital currencies. Having a reliable investment manager and broker is crucial for making informed decisions and managing risks effectively.It's wise to seek out certified professionals who can provide efficient management.With diligence, descipline and the right guidance, success in wealth-building becomes more achievable.
Thank so much for the advice been seeking means of being successful in the digital market,do you recommend any professional broker I’m ready.
I kind of interpret many post on here as acknowledging that we're reaching a market peak, in general, which is a well-supported thesis, and so if you've been sitting back chill while the gains roll in because bull market, well, time for traders to stay sharp, many are expecting volatility, probably a sharp downturn, smart traders should check their risk management is in shape, time to pay attention. The timing of his post vs what I know about the market supports that well enough. But yeah, the post could mean anything.....managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Sandy Barclays, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Sandy Barclays program is widely available online..
Exploring new investment opportunities demonstrates your proactive stance towards financial growth during these volatile times. Diversifying your portfolio can play a crucial role in effectiveIy mitigating risks..
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
Even with the right strategies and appropriate assets, investment returns can differ among investors. Recognizing the vital role of experience in investment success is crucial. Personally, I understood this significance and sought guidance from a market analyst, significantly growing my account to nearly a million. Strategically withdrawing profits just before the market correction, I'm now seizing buying opportunities once again.
Sandy Barclays’s understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. Her siignals are top notch..
With reduced inflation signals and the Federal Reserve halting rate hikes, what are the best additions to a $500K portfolio to enhance its overall performance?
Seek out stocks with a history of steady, increasing dividends, even during recessions. Alternatively, consulting a certified market strategist can provide guidance on which equities to acquire.
True, some employ hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfolio to defensive assets that perform well during downturns. Engaging market experts, as I did in 2019 during the COVID outbreak, boosted my $1M portfolio by 45% with assets recommended by my advisor.
Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service ?
*Sharon Lynne Hart* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Sharp guest + great questions + cogent arguments = Thumbs up
Great conversation! Really enjoy hearing all the different thought processes of these experts. So many metrics and ways to look at the market. Many thanks!
This guy is not the most insightful. He talks like someone who has never had his views challenged by a fellow professional who has all the data and has seen many market cycles. Small cap earnings will be up 17% in 2025 based on consensus? Well, maybe... unless GDP growth slows materially.
and he totally ignores the issue of banks in asia going bust...
25 million illegal aliens will help GDP, so what, they're burning tax money just like all the new government jobs.
I keep hearing this fantasy of household formation. No one is forming households, because people aged 30-40 can't afford houses even on 250-300k salaries! Kids are not even a dream at this point.
More like tent formation. They can barely afford rent.
So true, we are 39, 2 kids, wife has $170,000 student loan debt, and we make $550,000. Because of the student loans and wanting to pay them off quickly, we can’t buy a house. If we did, and it was a nice sized house in our neighborhood in Minnesota, MINIMUM is $800,000, and that’s an outdated home that just has enough space.
@@Mav0585If what you are saying is true, you could be debt free with a paid off house within 3 years. Just cut a little of your expenses dude. 100k a years of expenses should be plenty, there are people living off of way less.
@@Mav0585 unreal! 550K is huge.
@Mav0585
As ridiculous as your comment is, I think what you're saying is is that anyone who makes less than about eight figures is having their standard of living expectations crushed by the high prices.
In any case, with income like that, you could have $170,000 loan paid off before the end of this year.
This is not the 1940s. The amount of money in the system today is way higher than 1940s. They will end up destroying the dollar if they don’t keep interest rates elevated.
Every central bank in history has chosen the path of least resistance - inflate the problem away!
they seem stuck for sure
I think they have to keep rates high, that’s why they manipulate the job reports. 34T debt in 24 years is no joke.
I believe that he is accurate. Not many are predicting prosperity.
Where is he pulling out future growth numbers from ?
Rallying equities on the pivot? Probably for a while. Still have consumers completely priced out of everything. Deflationary pressure is a looming threat that could rain on the party. 24/25 YOY will be very interesting. You reap what ye sow.
This guy is my fav. You know I'm a big fan
This guest is just great. July 1st….Thomas Hayes…..thanks, bring him back every other week.
To analyze the entire economy based on only the public markets, without “Main Street” (which makes up a much larger portion of the economy and without any visibility) is just misguided. With the “493” are already stagnant when the markets at all time highs, these companies and the private sector will be devastated when the recession finally reaches full momentum. The critique of the Chinese markets are way off because the government saw how public markets act irresponsibly and does not support real GDP growth and promptly popped that bubble. The pain is over in China and now they have all the fiscal tools to maneuver in any direction as they turn their attention towards growth through the BRICS alliance, without any lingering dead weight from western capital markets and currency threats.
I don’t need college, I just need David Lin podcast. I like all the inside views of angles from each guest.
Millennial here, we are all broke raising kids.
From to abandon 20 % inflation target 😅
Absurdity. Inflation rate should be 0% or even negative for a short time period.
Very specific numbers thrown out like nothing. Can I borrow that almanac from biff ?
Sure, I'll lend you my DeLorean
@@TheDavidLinReport😂
@@TheDavidLinReport Invite JC Parets!!
@@TheDavidLinReportYou wish you had a DeLorean, David.
I like this guy , he seems like he is "smart". However I can tell he has never been through a major market bubble bursting!!! 😂😂😂
Which one there are so many people spoke
When Thomas speaks, You listen. Thank you !!!
Anything on unemployment rates and worker participation rates factored in together.
Great interview. Excellent, well informed guest in Tom Hayes. Look forward to seeing him back on the channel.
Hey David --question, if Bank of Japan dumps US Treasuries in favor of buying their own currency-- could that cause bond market disfunction?, thus the fed can’t cut rates in the face of a slowing US economy? What will win out, the bond market or the economy?
Good question. I'll ask this soon
I suddenly have a yen for Yen .
Economy is dead. It's all printed money funding bad loans, malinvestment and government waste and corruption.
The Fed will buy it all. They are likely doing it already am since Treasury debt yields dropped significantly in past mumber of weeks. So they're cutting rates already in effect by buying bonds, presumably through proxies.
Japan has just under 1T of Treasuries supposedly. Fed bought about 3.5T in 2020, so 1T is easy for them.
imho if US inflation remains in 3-4% range , the stock market wouldn’t sneeze
It is going too when the 10 year yield goes above 5% and keeps on going.
@@bpb5541 yep. When Fed loses any control of the yield curve......WATCH OUT!
I can't find any performance records for Great Hill Capital, is this a brand new fund?
Excellent analysis! Keep it up, David. Great job. As usual.
Mark my words NVDA will be outed as the next Enron. Those banksters have a sense of humor, Nvidia replaced Enron in s&p500.
Oh boomer no like AI lol.
Hey grandpa, it's time for your nap and medication 💊 .
@@Fearzero You GenZ kids will soon be taught a very valuable and expensive lesson.😅😂🤣
@@Fearzero That is not the issue. Nvidia has been manipulating its performance with circular flows. That you don't understand this and infer @Boostlagg's observation to be anti-AI, rather than looking at the substance of the concern, reflects your immaturity. The clue is in linking Nvidia to Enron. Enron also used "money-go-rounds" or effectively self purchases/sales to boost its results. Nvidia is doing the same thing. The other extreme example is in China and local govt and LGFVs.
In simple terms, you are the one saying "AI good, so Nvidia good." I guess it beats the hard work of learning enough to make informed decisions. I didn't see @Boostlagg offer an opinion on AI.
@@centurione6489 Ha dude I'm 53. You should really learn about AI. Even us old dudes can stay on top of tech. You probably don't understand bitcoin either. Smh.
Solid interview, great theory and knowledge, thanks to both of you
We need a rate hike! The real inflation is 8%
Instant recession, brilliant.
@bradw2k yeah cause we aren't in one now.
I can tell you a damn genius lmao
The Fed and Jerome Powell want to go back to ZIRP and will do so soon. Let's all see what happens to this economy when he pivots and brings rates back to 2% or below.
rate was 8%. it is now 3%. The issue is our salary never had the 8% jump...
@@user-sv4fs5qw9b do you believe inflation is 3?
Let's go back to the fundamental of the yield curve once it's uninverts do you get a massive recession it's happened every time since 1950 except for the one exception you talked about in the 1990s but that one was a very short time blip inversion
I think he’s pretty serious about the 2%. But he’ll be replaced before he gets it down enough.
The Fed will do nothing with the markets at all time highs
So 100% sure it's gonna happen ..
That's a bold claim !
Enjoyable discussion. Great info on China. Thanks!
Forget 2% inflation, if things get as bad as it appears it will, you will see DEFLATION!
That's what worries me. i know people that are applying for new jobs / looking for jobs. That i thought would never have to do that..
People have no idea how massive and fast the train coming down the track is. Worse they have no idea how to get out of its way.
For a few weeks maybe.
They won't let that happen. That's the one thing they can't accept.
@@LarsLarsen77 Well they did not do a good job in protecting us from the GFC. In fact the way they responded, we still have not paid for that nonsense. They will make the same exact mistake again which will mean a crash and then hyperifnation. Real issues is the debts are getting so high... they is not much road left to kick the can down. Should the 10 year yield continue its upward climb... the government will be stuck. I think they are already stuck. No good way out of this mess now. I think folks are way to optimistic. I want to be... I just don't see it. The math no longer works.
Refreshing measured and knowledgeable guest 👍👍👍
Why would they abandon 2% if the Feds own bank stress test showed we could have a 50% market crash, 5 major hedge funds could go under and housing could lose 30% of its value but the banks they tested which are the most systemic would be just fine?
Deflation sounds fabulous. Let's do it.
What a guest!
I keep believing recession's coming but it doesn't. A lot of factors point to it but we keep going up. I have to give some of these guests credence because they've been right longer than I ever thought they'd be. Just gotta stay prepared I guess.
I'm sick of price changes being talked about as if they are good (so do nothing) or bad (so fight them). They are just signals. Central banks trying to control price changes is what got us in this mess.
Is earnings growth adjusted for inflation?
The only thing that matters today is liquidity in the financial sector. We have 10+ trillions of worthless debt being rolled over and no one cares as long as the interest vig is paid before the default clauses kick in. When this juggling act ends, the debt write-offs will be hugely deflationary.
I agree that liquidity, for the most part, is all that matters. If and when we experience a freeze up in the credit markets, we're going to see panic, feathers flying everywhere.
Who or what are we dept with - always wondered that - what happens if we don't pay the bill - who's going to collect - if someone owed me trillions id be wanting my $$ - so what country loaned us all that money ??
Why would the bill not be paid? The FEDs printer isn't going to run out of ink. This episode's guest already explained how it works, debt is repaid with devalued dollars.
@@ITH56 I actually looked it up after the vid - thank goodness for UA-cam free education just ask it a Q ! HAAA- the answer was we the people are being ripped off - go figure - BUT were cows were not going to do nothing about it -''MOOO!'' HAAA! peace and love
If the US default the dollar goes to zero. All the money and everything tied to it goes worthless. The implications are almost too bad to think about. But I think about it. My plans is to short when the FED cuts... make a crap ton of money (US dollars) on the crash and immediately put it into BTC, gold and sliver.
@@bpb5541 If it gets that bad i think $$ is the lest of our problems - wont need $$ - but better start learning being a cannibalism - folks being nice and fat - so we will be well feed for about a yr - with global warming humans will be all that's left!! HAAA!
In a big downturn, inflation could turn into deflation.
It’s a 2% average inflation rate over time. It’s been stated in the fed speeches since 2020
I would love to understand how he believes earnings growth for non-tech sectors is going to increase. Consumers are maxing out credit cards and defaulting. GDP is slowing and it appears that earnings growth is a fantasy.
Really good information. I mean this in a good way but the guest reminds me of Christian bales character in American psyco anyone else?
Lol..
This guy seems to know everything!
Too bad 3 is more like 9 in real terms
So he’s saying the SP will be stable if all still growing at 7-17%?
Fed said it is not lowering the rates anytime soon.
Gapping contradiction on China and the millennials. Did you spot the issue with this thesis? Ill dig a bit into this.
Thomas Hayes always very insightful and interesting to listen to. Great interview David, again. Questions+You dont interrupt. Guest tip; JC Parets, hes also great.
Print & Borrow until we collapse. There is no other plan.
Definitely a Jack of all trades and master of none guest. Only take I agree with is the US demographic one which is inflationary. China doesn’t work because it’s a gerschenkron model of debt; you’re pointlessly digging through the weeds imo, invest elsewhere
The issue is like the BlackRock guy said: high interest rates are *paid out* into the bank accounts of the wealthy, the public is a net lender, so high interest rates *CAUSE INFLATION*
Buddy, these interest rates ain't high. Any money sitting in a "high yield" interest rate account right now IS STILL DETERIORATING due to high, persistent inflation. We're gonna get another acceleration of inflation into 2025.
@@user-pq5rb8ju4w- Right. I feel like any cash earning 5% is barely keeping up or losing.
I want what this guy's smoking. The FED will NOT be cutting rates anytime soon! next
Define soon.
@@bpb5541 Not this year.
Trump and Biden both said that they want zero or low interest rates. Which will happen after the election. For those of us who rent. We are f#u@ked. The 80% of the population who owns their home will be rejoicing.
Just good info no Death And destruction!
No recession?? Unemployment has gone from 3.4-4.1%!? Probably already in a recession…
Anytime an analyst claims '100% for sure' somewhere a kitten dies..
Excellent !!!
Great content
I love the alternative perspective. But, there aren't any politicians in China lol
How does inflation go down when student loans never have to be paid back and the government guarantees both first and second mortgages? We're in the crack up phase.
We are already seeing deflation in the car market. It is coming for everthing else ... nothing is going to be safe. All assets are about to get whacked. When? When the FED cuts and the yield curve reinverts. That is when. I have no idea when that is gong to happen... possibly Sept or possibly next year. But you will know the FED is not going to cut by 25 basis points they are going to cut by at least 100 when they get going. That is when you know we are in trouble.
@@bpb5541 Yes I agree they will cut. I've seen lots of tow trucks repo-ing cars too
Good stuff.
The real inflation rates is x 3 whatever number the Fed tells you😮
It'll take a while, they still have buybacks
Inflate it away means 5 million dollar average home and a car cost 500,000. You will wipe out the middle ckass
“I’m not stating a fantasy bullish scenario” as it describes one for over 15 min 🤣 so many contradictions..
So here's another "expert" who says the economy is good and everything in the near future will be just fine. 😂😂😂
Right, the market will never go down. Just go up less. Pile in.
Nonsense they aren't cutting rates at all this year and Bitcoin us going to Zero.
Bitcoin to zero? Maybe but unlikely.
Permabull?
Calling 2% a fantasy just shows ignorance. Instant thumbs down and skip.
As long as the Fed uses CPI, inflation can go to zero at will.🤣
In a sense, he's correct. The 2% inflation target has always been made up. There is no objective basis to maintaining inflation at 2%. It was simply nominated as a rate that wasn't too likely to cause major unexpected consequences or known adverse consequences.
@@davisutton1 if you understand expected GDP and money supply growth then you'll understand how 2% was landed upon.
Fed will find any excuse to go back to ZIRP.
Real target is 5%
This guy is low key crazy, mag7 having revenue growth because they serve business’. Consumer is crushed the 492 aren’t going to have significant revenue growth but it is likely business’ will have to cut back hurting the mag 7
Nothing like free markets 😂
Excellent
It’s like paying $300 paypal
F the Fed
Hmm, he seems pretty sure of himself and his predictions.
XAI66X is the future and more than just another project, it has all of it
This guest is not good, with all due respect. Or, I wish you would have pressed him on his views. He offered prognostications, and you should have pressed him for real rationales.
ok thomas. What happens when china or japan declares bankruptcy? Your stocks flying high still lol
XAI66X stronger than all the other attempted ones
This dude just making a fantasy bull case because he wants more clients. Typical salesman, like a car dealer trying to get to sell you a $100k truck right now, or a house that overvalued by 40 percent. What about unemployment?
America 🇺🇸 loves 🥰 Hyper Inflation 💸 and will continue to print money 💵 and lower interest rates until the US 🇺🇸 Dollar 💵 collapses ! The American 🇺🇸 Government loves 🥰 Hyper Inflation 💸 so much they want the prices of everything to rise until the US 🇺🇸 Dollar 💵 is worth nothing ! Print ! Print ! Print ! Ha ! Ha ! Ha ! Hilarious 🤣
XAI66X movement begins and everyone is like acting crazy. Let's bring it up!
Sure 😂?
The 10 year yield and dxy biggest ponzi ever
Those are both traded on the open market. The FED only controls the FED Funds rate or the amount borrowers (banks) charge eachother for overnight loans. I think the government have way less control of both of those than most think. Especially, with the debt levels so crazy high. Did you notice the 10 year surged last few days. That means folks are not buying the debt the Treasury is selling. This is the real risk no one is talking about.
Jeffrey Gundlach has a better take on our economy than this kid. Our debt situation is a disaster, stop downplaying it kid
Don’t listen to anyone’s BS touting financial advisors on here…
$XEN crypto
simply funny😂