Thank you so much! I really appreciate your feedback and am thrilled that you found the data and insights valuable. Putting together well-researched content is important to me, so it’s fantastic to hear it resonated with you. Thanks for watching, and I’m honored you think it’s "video of the year"!
Another good video thank you. I totally agree with your forecast on property prices. What I don’t understand is, with so many cheap properties coming onto the market over the last year due to many landlords panicking over the increased changes in the rental market, I really fail to see why people are struggling to get onto the property ladder. When I purchased my first very tiny property I really struggled and had 3 jobs, but I didn’t have all the must have’s that seem to be expected by people these days, like white goods, phones, computers etc. One can even cut back on food with a little thought. What must be realised is it may be hard at first, but soon gets easier as time goes on and when inflation hits, you see your investment increase many times. I live in the south east where property in expensive, but regularly see studio flats coming on the market at around £100k and not selling, but one bedroom flats renting out for £800+ a month. It doesn’t make sense.
Thanks so much for your comment, Peter, and for sharing your experience. You’re absolutely right-getting onto the property ladder often requires some sacrifices and a long-term view. Even though we’re seeing some properties listed around £100k in the South East, like those studio flats you mentioned, there are still barriers making it tough for many first-time buyers. For one, even a 10% deposit can be hard to save up, especially with today’s cost of living. Plus, mortgage lenders have become stricter with approvals given the economic uncertainties, which can be a hurdle. And on top of that, the costs beyond the purchase price-like stamp duty and legal fees-add up quickly. You make a great point about lifestyle expectations too. Sometimes people might overlook the benefits of starting small and working up over time, especially if they’re expecting certain amenities from the start. And as you pointed out, with rent often higher than potential mortgage payments, owning could actually be more affordable long-term. Your story is a great reminder that, while it’s challenging at first, persistence and strategic budgeting can make a big difference. Thanks again for the insight!
Great video, been following you for a while now. Really appreciate the quality and effort put into making them. I’m in the process of buying my first house now, hoping for some good growth in 2025. Basic supply & demand 🏡💰
Great video and much appreciated. Im in 2 minds what to do as i am 46 and have aprox £100.000 In equity from our first house but our dream home has just come on the markett. Should we sell up now and use all our savings to buy our dream home before its gone or hold on to what we have for the near future.
Thank you 🙏 Regarding your question that’s tough for me to answer without better understanding your situation and property. If your confident you can afford to purchase your dream home with interest rates at the high levels they are now, then it’s likely you’ll find the property will become more affordable to keep as rates drop in the future. If house prices do increase you’d then be happy you bought now than wait. What are the opportunities and risks to you going for your dream home do you think?
I think rents will keep rising especially with the landlord exodus for older aged landlords who want to hand down their wealth. Many landlords seem to be OAP’s it would be interesting to see some stats on average and median landlord age. As part of this wealth transfer the younger generations are less likely to invest in property. Those of us who remain in the game will enjoy higher rental yields. This in itself drives up property prices despite the recent tax hikes. Tenants still want to try and buy their own homes
You make a great point about the impact of an aging landlord population. Stats show the average UK landlord is around 58, with almost two-thirds aged 55 or older. So, as more of them start to retire and potentially sell off properties, we could see a drop in rental supply, which could push rents up even more. Interestingly, though, younger people are starting to enter the landlord scene too. The number of landlords aged 18-29 has gone up in recent years, and many in their 30s are keen to build property portfolios. So while some older landlords may exit, there’s a bit of a younger wave coming in that could keep the market supplied. That said, with tenant demand still strong and rents rising, there’s a good chance those who stick with property will see higher rental yields, which can help keep prices buoyant, even with the recent tax hikes. Thanks for raising such an insightful point-there’s a lot to consider as the landscape shifts!
great video, me and my partner are looking for our first home. No rush but actively searching, Do you think its better to wait a little longer or just to go any time ?
Glad you enjoyed it! You're in a great position, as you can be opportunistic to find the right great buy. I'd recommend you keep searching and wait for the opportunity to purchase a property that ticks all your boxes. BUT where you can negotiate a good price being chain free. SOME sellers will greatly favour chain free buyers and be willing to consider a discount.
I think house prices will fall- as it will be more expensive to buy second properties now with the new budget I think people buying to rent will be less appealing, and the demand will therefore go down dropping the prices. Very rich have already started moving from the UK and i envisage entrepreneurs concerned about further rises in taxes for them will consider moving abroad as well, again creating more availability of houses for sale. I also think the budget is not focused on growing the economy, and after 5 years of struggles many with the opportunity will move to countries with a growing economy and more opportunity. Therefore my prediction is house prices will fall over the next 12-24 months.
I totally get where you’re coming from, and you’ve raised some really valid points. The recent increase in stamp duty for second properties could definitely make buy-to-let less appealing, which might ease some demand and potentially lower prices in that segment. You’re also spot-on about wealthy individuals and entrepreneurs thinking twice about staying in the UK if taxes keep going up. That could increase the number of properties available, which might add some downward pressure on prices too. But at the same time, we’re still facing a housing shortage that keeps pushing prices up-especially since the government’s building targets have been consistently missed. Even with some investors pulling back, others might still see the UK property market as a stable bet, especially if interest rates start to level out or drop. So while I think there’s definitely a case for some cooling in the market, the shortage of supply and other economic factors could keep prices from falling too drastically. Predicting house prices is never straightforward, and there are so many moving parts to consider. Thanks for sharing such a thoughtful take!
@BobBuilder-mq9wr Thanks for sharing your perspective. Immigration and population growth do play a role in housing demand, and that can certainly impact property prices, especially in areas where demand is already high. There’s a lot of debate around how these factors balance with supply issues and government policies. Ultimately, the housing market is influenced by a mix of both internal and external factors, including supply constraints, economic policies, and population trends. It’s a complex issue, and I appreciate your take on it. Housing is one of those topics where many factors come together, sometimes creating trends that can be difficult to predict. Thanks for being part of the conversation!
@Hunterthepunter126 Great question! The recent government budget, including adjustments to stamp duty, could indeed impact house prices. Increased stamp duty for second-home buyers might reduce demand among investors, potentially easing some pressure on prices. However, broader market conditions-like interest rates and supply-demand dynamics-will likely play a larger role in price trends over the next year. It’s definitely something to keep an eye on, and I’ll be covering this topic in more detail soon. Thanks for bringing it up!
@annalpha1 That’s a great question! Private equity definitely plays a significant role in the property market, especially when it comes to larger-scale investments and acquisitions. Private equity firms often focus on buying large portfolios or residential developments, which can impact housing supply and even rental prices in certain areas. It’s a topic that deserves more attention, as their involvement can sometimes drive up prices or limit availability for individual buyers. Thanks for bringing it up-I’ll definitely consider covering this in more detail in a future video!
@piotrwojdelko1150 You’re absolutely right-rising material costs have had a big impact on property prices. With the cost of construction materials nearly doubling in recent years, it’s a challenge for builders to keep prices low, especially for new builds. While there’s always a desire for more affordable housing, these rising costs are definitely one of the barriers. Thanks for highlighting this-it's a critical factor that often gets overlooked!
That's an interesting take on the market, but I've also listened to Alex Groundwater's observations on the housing market and what affects it and, although you align in some areas, you've not considered real wage growth and the correlation with that and house prices. If he's right and real wage growth shrinks, we'll see stagnation in property prices at best, falls at worst and it's anyone's guess as to the severity of those falls. Given that the budget has done nothing to ease the cost of living on households, especially owner living costs, there's likely to be less and less money available to fund ever increasing house prices and all of the extra measures, such as increasing mortgage borrowing terms to 40 years - which costs thousands extra in interest and makes people mortgage slaves for life, lowering the stress test thresholds - further increasing the risk of defaults on payments, could be argued that they are merely sticking plasters on a very shaky house of cards and, as Alex is predicting, we could see hard times as bad as 90/91, when job losses due to a poor economy saw prices drop by a quarter in most places.
@madmountainman5197 Really appreciate you bringing up Alex Groundwater’s perspective-there’s a lot of depth in what you’re saying here. Real wage growth is absolutely a crucial factor, and you’re right: if wages don’t keep up with inflation and cost of living, the market faces some real headwinds. The budget’s lack of support on cost-of-living relief for households, along with things like stretched mortgage terms and looser lending criteria, could indeed lead to instability rather than long-term growth. It’s also true that measures like extending mortgage terms to 40 years can create more challenges than solutions, turning homeownership into a lifelong financial strain for many. The comparison to the early ’90s is a good one, as job losses and reduced affordability back then had a huge impact on prices. I’m always watching these indicators closely, and I’ll definitely consider covering this angle in future videos. Thanks for bringing such a detailed and thoughtful view to the discussion!
For many people, especially those in the public sector, real wage growth has been fantastic in the last 6 months. I lived through 90/91 and, whilst things can always get worse, it just does not feel as bad as that period at the current time. Vacancies, for example, are still very high by historic standards and whilst there are a lot of people economically inactive they tend to be either the wealthy who have decide to retire early/go part time or people who were never going to buy a house in the first place.
@@Leapops It's the private and public sectors that are both facing troubled waters regarding employment. Looking at all of the bankrupt local councils, they're having to make 25% cuts across the board, which will come with a mix of natural wastage and job cuts. Privately, the increase in the minimum wage and national insurance hikes have all only just landed on the doorstep, so it's going to be an interesting year ahead.
@@madmountainman5197 I cant remember the last time it was not going to be an interesting year ahead! So what? There is always plenty of doom if you care to look for it. However... Last year we had LEGAL migration of over 1 million people. This is 1 million people offered a visa to either work or to study. If there were no jobs there would have been no work visas. It always amazes me that we are such a basket case and yet all these people keep coming to work in the UK. At the same time we once again built bugger all houses. All those extra people bidding for the same property stock means upward pressure on rents and house prices. In 90/91 interest rates went to 15%, we got kicked out of the ERM, unemployment and inflation was through the roof and people were able to self certificate (aka lie about) their earnings and you could get 100% plus mortgages on these fictional earnings. Compared with that era, todays problems in the housing market are minuscule.
@madmountainman5197 and @Leapops, both of you make excellent points here, and it highlights just how complex the current housing market really is. Madmountainman5197, I agree that real wage growth-or the lack of it-will play a huge role in where the market goes, and I can see how today’s cost-of-living pressures, coupled with stretched mortgage terms, could put a strain on future growth. The comparison to the '90s recession is definitely relevant, especially considering that rising costs and tighter budgets can lead to market corrections. The economic backdrop right now, with struggling local councils and some sectors feeling the pinch, certainly makes for an interesting year ahead. Leapops, you’re right as well-high legal migration levels and limited housing supply do add pressure to keep prices steady or even rising, particularly in areas with growing job markets. And you make a good point about how some of the structural issues from the '90s, like much higher interest rates and more risky lending practices, are less prominent now, which could add some stability. It’s a mix of these factors that makes today’s market unique, and both sides of the coin are important to keep in mind. I’ll definitely be watching how these dynamics unfold-thanks for sharing such detailed insights!
@jayxunderwood I totally understand your frustration-it's tough out there, and the market definitely isn’t making things easy for first-time buyers. It's true that the property landscape can feel stacked against the average person, but there are still steps that can improve your chances, like keeping an eye on the gradual interest rate drops we might see in the coming months and considering alternative ways to enter the market, like shared ownership or more affordable areas. I know it’s not the easiest path, but sometimes perseverance and planning can create options, even in a difficult market. Thanks for sharing your thoughts, and feel free to reach out if you have questions about anything!
@Daniel31415 I hear you, and it’s frustrating to feel like the market is being dominated by those with deep pockets. It can make it seem like getting ahead is nearly impossible, especially when property is increasingly treated as an investment rather than a basic need. That said, while it might feel discouraging, it’s important to focus on what’s within reach. There are still ways to make progress, whether it’s by starting small, exploring shared ownership schemes, or even looking at areas with more affordable housing. It’s not easy, but hard work and a solid plan can still make a difference. Thanks for sharing your thoughts-it’s a tough issue that so many people are feeling right now.
I get where you’re coming from. Inflation isn’t exactly 'over'-it’s definitely complex. But we have seen some signs that inflation is easing. For instance, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 1.7% in the 12 months to September 2024, down from 2.2% in August, so there’s been a downward trend lately. As for interest rates, you’re absolutely right that the government has to consider debt servicing costs. The Bank of England recently lowered the rate by 0.25 points to 5% in August, which reflects their cautious approach. Balancing inflation control with debt costs is tricky, and higher interest rates can certainly make it more expensive for the government to manage its debt. So, while inflation might be easing, it’s definitely a situation to keep an eye on. The Bank of England is being very deliberate with these decisions, keeping both inflation and debt in mind. Thanks for sharing your perspective-it’s an important part of the conversation!
The water valve analogy is BS. BOE do not set mortgage rates. How about higher interest rates on swaps and higher SDLT. These house investor programmes won’t be here in 2 years.
@DowntownR I get where you’re coming from, and you’re right-mortgage rates aren’t set directly by the Bank of England (BoE). While the BoE base rate is a benchmark, it’s things like swap rates and other market factors that really influence what lenders offer. When swap rates go up, it pushes mortgage rates higher, even if the base rate doesn’t change. That’s why we’ve seen lenders increase rates recently, despite some easing in inflation. The higher Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT), especially the jump for second properties, is also a big factor. It’s designed to cool down the buy-to-let market, but it could mean fewer rental properties and more pressure on housing availability. As for the future of property investment programs, you might be right that some could disappear if conditions stay tough. But the housing market is complex, and demand-supply imbalances still play a huge role. It’ll be interesting to see how it all pans out over the next couple of years. Appreciate you sharing your thoughts-it’s always good to dig into these details!
Aftet saving consistently forbthe last 4 years, i have to move 260 miles from my family to the other side of the country in some shit hole town to afford a house.
I can totally understand how disheartening that must feel. Saving up for years only to find that buying a home means moving far away from family and settling in a place that doesn’t feel like home is tough. The way the market is right now has put a lot of people in similar situations-having to make big sacrifices just to get a foot on the property ladder. You’re definitely not alone in feeling frustrated. It’s a huge life step, and you deserve to feel good about where you’re putting down roots. Hang in there, and know that your hard work is still something to be proud of. Thanks for sharing your experience; it’s a reality for so many people right now.
@DowntownR You’re absolutely right that house prices have dropped in real terms-when you adjust for inflation, the value of properties hasn’t kept pace. Even though nominal prices might look stable or show small increases, the reality is that rising living costs have eroded their real value. As for April 2025, forecasts are mixed. Some experts, like Rightmove, predict a 4% rise in nominal prices next year, and Savills has a similar outlook, expecting steady growth over the next five years. But of course, this all depends on factors like interest rates, affordability, and wider economic trends. It’s definitely a tricky market right now, and real-term declines are an important part of the picture. Thanks for sharing your thoughts-it’s a key point that often gets overlooked!
Your channel is amazing, and every piece of content really pulls me in. There are certain places in your channel that require updates. To maximise the reach of your videos, proper SEO is essential. Optimised titles, descriptions, and keywords will significantly improve search visibility and attract more viewers. By promoting your videos on social platforms like Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and LinkedIn, you can draw in an even larger audience, positively impacting your business. I’d be glad to share these insights with you, if you’re interested.
Value and data determines your results. Your data has credibility and value. Definitely video of the year. Thank you for your hard work.
Thank you so much! I really appreciate your feedback and am thrilled that you found the data and insights valuable. Putting together well-researched content is important to me, so it’s fantastic to hear it resonated with you. Thanks for watching, and I’m honored you think it’s "video of the year"!
Another good video thank you. I totally agree with your forecast on property prices. What I don’t understand is, with so many cheap properties coming onto the market over the last year due to many landlords panicking over the increased changes in the rental market, I really fail to see why people are struggling to get onto the property ladder. When I purchased my first very tiny property I really struggled and had 3 jobs, but I didn’t have all the must have’s that seem to be expected by people these days, like white goods, phones, computers etc. One can even cut back on food with a little thought. What must be realised is it may be hard at first, but soon gets easier as time goes on and when inflation hits, you see your investment increase many times. I live in the south east where property in expensive, but regularly see studio flats coming on the market at around £100k and not selling, but one bedroom flats renting out for £800+ a month. It doesn’t make sense.
Thanks so much for your comment, Peter, and for sharing your experience. You’re absolutely right-getting onto the property ladder often requires some sacrifices and a long-term view. Even though we’re seeing some properties listed around £100k in the South East, like those studio flats you mentioned, there are still barriers making it tough for many first-time buyers.
For one, even a 10% deposit can be hard to save up, especially with today’s cost of living. Plus, mortgage lenders have become stricter with approvals given the economic uncertainties, which can be a hurdle. And on top of that, the costs beyond the purchase price-like stamp duty and legal fees-add up quickly.
You make a great point about lifestyle expectations too. Sometimes people might overlook the benefits of starting small and working up over time, especially if they’re expecting certain amenities from the start. And as you pointed out, with rent often higher than potential mortgage payments, owning could actually be more affordable long-term.
Your story is a great reminder that, while it’s challenging at first, persistence and strategic budgeting can make a big difference. Thanks again for the insight!
Great video, been following you for a while now. Really appreciate the quality and effort put into making them. I’m in the process of buying my first house now, hoping for some good growth in 2025. Basic supply & demand 🏡💰
Thank you, I really appreciate the comment.
Good for you! I wish you all the best with your purchase!
Will
Great content! 🙌
Thank you 🙏
Great video and much appreciated. Im in 2 minds what to do as i am 46 and have aprox £100.000 In equity from our first house but our dream home has just come on the markett. Should we sell up now and use all our savings to buy our dream home before its gone or hold on to what we have for the near future.
Thank you 🙏
Regarding your question that’s tough for me to answer without better understanding your situation and property.
If your confident you can afford to purchase your dream home with interest rates at the high levels they are now, then it’s likely you’ll find the property will become more affordable to keep as rates drop in the future. If house prices do increase you’d then be happy you bought now than wait.
What are the opportunities and risks to you going for your dream home do you think?
I think rents will keep rising especially with the landlord exodus for older aged landlords who want to hand down their wealth. Many landlords seem to be OAP’s it would be interesting to see some stats on average and median landlord age. As part of this wealth transfer the younger generations are less likely to invest in property. Those of us who remain in the game will enjoy higher rental yields. This in itself drives up property prices despite the recent tax hikes. Tenants still want to try and buy their own homes
You make a great point about the impact of an aging landlord population. Stats show the average UK landlord is around 58, with almost two-thirds aged 55 or older. So, as more of them start to retire and potentially sell off properties, we could see a drop in rental supply, which could push rents up even more.
Interestingly, though, younger people are starting to enter the landlord scene too. The number of landlords aged 18-29 has gone up in recent years, and many in their 30s are keen to build property portfolios. So while some older landlords may exit, there’s a bit of a younger wave coming in that could keep the market supplied.
That said, with tenant demand still strong and rents rising, there’s a good chance those who stick with property will see higher rental yields, which can help keep prices buoyant, even with the recent tax hikes. Thanks for raising such an insightful point-there’s a lot to consider as the landscape shifts!
great video, me and my partner are looking for our first home. No rush but actively searching, Do you think its better to wait a little longer or just to go any time ?
Glad you enjoyed it!
You're in a great position, as you can be opportunistic to find the right great buy.
I'd recommend you keep searching and wait for the opportunity to purchase a property that ticks all your boxes. BUT where you can negotiate a good price being chain free. SOME sellers will greatly favour chain free buyers and be willing to consider a discount.
I think house prices will fall- as it will be more expensive to buy second properties now with the new budget I think people buying to rent will be less appealing, and the demand will therefore go down dropping the prices.
Very rich have already started moving from the UK and i envisage entrepreneurs concerned about further rises in taxes for them will consider moving abroad as well, again creating more availability of houses for sale. I also think the budget is not focused on growing the economy, and after 5 years of struggles many with the opportunity will move to countries with a growing economy and more opportunity. Therefore my prediction is house prices will fall over the next 12-24 months.
I totally get where you’re coming from, and you’ve raised some really valid points. The recent increase in stamp duty for second properties could definitely make buy-to-let less appealing, which might ease some demand and potentially lower prices in that segment.
You’re also spot-on about wealthy individuals and entrepreneurs thinking twice about staying in the UK if taxes keep going up. That could increase the number of properties available, which might add some downward pressure on prices too.
But at the same time, we’re still facing a housing shortage that keeps pushing prices up-especially since the government’s building targets have been consistently missed. Even with some investors pulling back, others might still see the UK property market as a stable bet, especially if interest rates start to level out or drop.
So while I think there’s definitely a case for some cooling in the market, the shortage of supply and other economic factors could keep prices from falling too drastically. Predicting house prices is never straightforward, and there are so many moving parts to consider. Thanks for sharing such a thoughtful take!
The boat people and visa people are flooding in to take up the slack . House prices are artificially always kept up last 15years
@BobBuilder-mq9wr Thanks for sharing your perspective. Immigration and population growth do play a role in housing demand, and that can certainly impact property prices, especially in areas where demand is already high. There’s a lot of debate around how these factors balance with supply issues and government policies. Ultimately, the housing market is influenced by a mix of both internal and external factors, including supply constraints, economic policies, and population trends.
It’s a complex issue, and I appreciate your take on it. Housing is one of those topics where many factors come together, sometimes creating trends that can be difficult to predict. Thanks for being part of the conversation!
Hi William, don't you consider the impact of the new government budget, including stamp duty on house prices?
@Hunterthepunter126 Great question! The recent government budget, including adjustments to stamp duty, could indeed impact house prices. Increased stamp duty for second-home buyers might reduce demand among investors, potentially easing some pressure on prices. However, broader market conditions-like interest rates and supply-demand dynamics-will likely play a larger role in price trends over the next year. It’s definitely something to keep an eye on, and I’ll be covering this topic in more detail soon. Thanks for bringing it up!
@@BritishHomeInvestors
I think landlords will factor in these SDLT hikes adding more to house price increases
Agreed.
Why is nobody ever mentioning private equity????
@annalpha1 That’s a great question! Private equity definitely plays a significant role in the property market, especially when it comes to larger-scale investments and acquisitions. Private equity firms often focus on buying large portfolios or residential developments, which can impact housing supply and even rental prices in certain areas.
It’s a topic that deserves more attention, as their involvement can sometimes drive up prices or limit availability for individual buyers. Thanks for bringing it up-I’ll definitely consider covering this in more detail in a future video!
people expect cheap flats ,flats can't be cheap when material costs have doubled
@piotrwojdelko1150 You’re absolutely right-rising material costs have had a big impact on property prices. With the cost of construction materials nearly doubling in recent years, it’s a challenge for builders to keep prices low, especially for new builds. While there’s always a desire for more affordable housing, these rising costs are definitely one of the barriers. Thanks for highlighting this-it's a critical factor that often gets overlooked!
That's an interesting take on the market, but I've also listened to Alex Groundwater's observations on the housing market and what affects it and, although you align in some areas, you've not considered real wage growth and the correlation with that and house prices. If he's right and real wage growth shrinks, we'll see stagnation in property prices at best, falls at worst and it's anyone's guess as to the severity of those falls. Given that the budget has done nothing to ease the cost of living on households, especially owner living costs, there's likely to be less and less money available to fund ever increasing house prices and all of the extra measures, such as increasing mortgage borrowing terms to 40 years - which costs thousands extra in interest and makes people mortgage slaves for life, lowering the stress test thresholds - further increasing the risk of defaults on payments, could be argued that they are merely sticking plasters on a very shaky house of cards and, as Alex is predicting, we could see hard times as bad as 90/91, when job losses due to a poor economy saw prices drop by a quarter in most places.
@madmountainman5197 Really appreciate you bringing up Alex Groundwater’s perspective-there’s a lot of depth in what you’re saying here. Real wage growth is absolutely a crucial factor, and you’re right: if wages don’t keep up with inflation and cost of living, the market faces some real headwinds. The budget’s lack of support on cost-of-living relief for households, along with things like stretched mortgage terms and looser lending criteria, could indeed lead to instability rather than long-term growth.
It’s also true that measures like extending mortgage terms to 40 years can create more challenges than solutions, turning homeownership into a lifelong financial strain for many. The comparison to the early ’90s is a good one, as job losses and reduced affordability back then had a huge impact on prices. I’m always watching these indicators closely, and I’ll definitely consider covering this angle in future videos. Thanks for bringing such a detailed and thoughtful view to the discussion!
For many people, especially those in the public sector, real wage growth has been fantastic in the last 6 months. I lived through 90/91 and, whilst things can always get worse, it just does not feel as bad as that period at the current time. Vacancies, for example, are still very high by historic standards and whilst there are a lot of people economically inactive they tend to be either the wealthy who have decide to retire early/go part time or people who were never going to buy a house in the first place.
@@Leapops It's the private and public sectors that are both facing troubled waters regarding employment. Looking at all of the bankrupt local councils, they're having to make 25% cuts across the board, which will come with a mix of natural wastage and job cuts. Privately, the increase in the minimum wage and national insurance hikes have all only just landed on the doorstep, so it's going to be an interesting year ahead.
@@madmountainman5197 I cant remember the last time it was not going to be an interesting year ahead! So what? There is always plenty of doom if you care to look for it. However...
Last year we had LEGAL migration of over 1 million people. This is 1 million people offered a visa to either work or to study. If there were no jobs there would have been no work visas. It always amazes me that we are such a basket case and yet all these people keep coming to work in the UK.
At the same time we once again built bugger all houses. All those extra people bidding for the same property stock means upward pressure on rents and house prices.
In 90/91 interest rates went to 15%, we got kicked out of the ERM, unemployment and inflation was through the roof and people were able to self certificate (aka lie about) their earnings and you could get 100% plus mortgages on these fictional earnings. Compared with that era, todays problems in the housing market are minuscule.
@madmountainman5197 and @Leapops, both of you make excellent points here, and it highlights just how complex the current housing market really is.
Madmountainman5197, I agree that real wage growth-or the lack of it-will play a huge role in where the market goes, and I can see how today’s cost-of-living pressures, coupled with stretched mortgage terms, could put a strain on future growth. The comparison to the '90s recession is definitely relevant, especially considering that rising costs and tighter budgets can lead to market corrections. The economic backdrop right now, with struggling local councils and some sectors feeling the pinch, certainly makes for an interesting year ahead.
Leapops, you’re right as well-high legal migration levels and limited housing supply do add pressure to keep prices steady or even rising, particularly in areas with growing job markets. And you make a good point about how some of the structural issues from the '90s, like much higher interest rates and more risky lending practices, are less prominent now, which could add some stability.
It’s a mix of these factors that makes today’s market unique, and both sides of the coin are important to keep in mind. I’ll definitely be watching how these dynamics unfold-thanks for sharing such detailed insights!
basically i have no chance owning my own house. why bother working so hard - it only helps the rich, I may as well live in a tent in the wilderness
@jayxunderwood I totally understand your frustration-it's tough out there, and the market definitely isn’t making things easy for first-time buyers. It's true that the property landscape can feel stacked against the average person, but there are still steps that can improve your chances, like keeping an eye on the gradual interest rate drops we might see in the coming months and considering alternative ways to enter the market, like shared ownership or more affordable areas. I know it’s not the easiest path, but sometimes perseverance and planning can create options, even in a difficult market. Thanks for sharing your thoughts, and feel free to reach out if you have questions about anything!
Exactly how I feel as well. The housing market has been cornered by the passive-income millionaires and billionaires. No point working hard at all
@Daniel31415 I hear you, and it’s frustrating to feel like the market is being dominated by those with deep pockets. It can make it seem like getting ahead is nearly impossible, especially when property is increasingly treated as an investment rather than a basic need.
That said, while it might feel discouraging, it’s important to focus on what’s within reach. There are still ways to make progress, whether it’s by starting small, exploring shared ownership schemes, or even looking at areas with more affordable housing. It’s not easy, but hard work and a solid plan can still make a difference. Thanks for sharing your thoughts-it’s a tough issue that so many people are feeling right now.
You are wrong inflation is not over , interest will not go up because governement cant service their dept at higher rates 4+...
I get where you’re coming from. Inflation isn’t exactly 'over'-it’s definitely complex. But we have seen some signs that inflation is easing. For instance, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 1.7% in the 12 months to September 2024, down from 2.2% in August, so there’s been a downward trend lately.
As for interest rates, you’re absolutely right that the government has to consider debt servicing costs. The Bank of England recently lowered the rate by 0.25 points to 5% in August, which reflects their cautious approach. Balancing inflation control with debt costs is tricky, and higher interest rates can certainly make it more expensive for the government to manage its debt.
So, while inflation might be easing, it’s definitely a situation to keep an eye on. The Bank of England is being very deliberate with these decisions, keeping both inflation and debt in mind. Thanks for sharing your perspective-it’s an important part of the conversation!
The water valve analogy is BS. BOE do not set mortgage rates. How about higher interest rates on swaps and higher SDLT. These house investor programmes won’t be here in 2 years.
@DowntownR I get where you’re coming from, and you’re right-mortgage rates aren’t set directly by the Bank of England (BoE). While the BoE base rate is a benchmark, it’s things like swap rates and other market factors that really influence what lenders offer. When swap rates go up, it pushes mortgage rates higher, even if the base rate doesn’t change. That’s why we’ve seen lenders increase rates recently, despite some easing in inflation.
The higher Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT), especially the jump for second properties, is also a big factor. It’s designed to cool down the buy-to-let market, but it could mean fewer rental properties and more pressure on housing availability.
As for the future of property investment programs, you might be right that some could disappear if conditions stay tough. But the housing market is complex, and demand-supply imbalances still play a huge role. It’ll be interesting to see how it all pans out over the next couple of years. Appreciate you sharing your thoughts-it’s always good to dig into these details!
But Charlie said house prices would drop 35%
😂😂😂
With inflation they did quite abit !! They went from overs 50k plus to people getting 50k off !!! Thats that's 100k difference on some properties
@@BobBuilder-mq9wr Charlies "expectation" was for a 35% NOMINAL house price drop. I do not think he properly understands inflation.
😂
Aftet saving consistently forbthe last 4 years, i have to move 260 miles from my family to the other side of the country in some shit hole town to afford a house.
I can totally understand how disheartening that must feel. Saving up for years only to find that buying a home means moving far away from family and settling in a place that doesn’t feel like home is tough. The way the market is right now has put a lot of people in similar situations-having to make big sacrifices just to get a foot on the property ladder.
You’re definitely not alone in feeling frustrated. It’s a huge life step, and you deserve to feel good about where you’re putting down roots. Hang in there, and know that your hard work is still something to be proud of. Thanks for sharing your experience; it’s a reality for so many people right now.
Wrong. House prices are down in real terms. April 2025 it falls further.
@DowntownR You’re absolutely right that house prices have dropped in real terms-when you adjust for inflation, the value of properties hasn’t kept pace. Even though nominal prices might look stable or show small increases, the reality is that rising living costs have eroded their real value.
As for April 2025, forecasts are mixed. Some experts, like Rightmove, predict a 4% rise in nominal prices next year, and Savills has a similar outlook, expecting steady growth over the next five years. But of course, this all depends on factors like interest rates, affordability, and wider economic trends.
It’s definitely a tricky market right now, and real-term declines are an important part of the picture. Thanks for sharing your thoughts-it’s a key point that often gets overlooked!
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