I'm retired at 27, This video here reminds me of my transformation from a nobody to having over 65,000 biweekly profit, a honest partner and a good daughter full of love ❤
I can still remember the exact feeling on my biggest payday in the market. Imagine taking home $407k just from 12k initial deposit. For the newbies I'll encourage anyone to embrace copytrade as the best approach especially when you're a newbie
Huge! been trying to trade on my own for a while now but it isn't going well. Few weeks ago I lost about $10,000 in a particular trade. Can you at least advise me on what to do?
- If we don't import Japanese cars, the dollar will strengthen, and American wheat will become too expensive. - We actually have a plan for that, we'll subsidize wheat. - You gotta be kidding.
One of the arguments this video doesn't address is the comparison between the Value-Added Tax (VAT) and Tariffs. It's my understanding that the US does not currently charge VAT on imports however most countries assess these taxes. So wouldn't a VAT be another form of a tariff?
Great summary. As I see it - the trade deficit wouldn't even exist had the foreigners not wanted US assets (the exchange rate adjustments point) - but they did want them, and not just the treasuries but, in large part - US stocks. And from the perspective of the US Economy one could view US Equities as a 'produce' that is being sold and which will be replaced by the next crop of new home-grown stocks (companies). The primary (or only) problem that is indeed hiding behind the trade deficit is that the net imports have taken the form of non-yielding, depreciating consumables as opposed to capital goods. And if anyone can be blamed for this core issue (over-consumption) within trade deficits it's the Fed (suppressed Fed rate) and the US Government (the illusion of free money for all whims).
I think this explains something I hadn't understood, which was that even as the US injected funds into the economy during COVID, other countries complained of difficulty obtaining US dollars. The explanation could be that due to lockdowns, there was a decreased need by the US, or countries holding reserves of US dollars, of buying (importing) oil.
Thanks for making this video, Bob. Would you discuss the Howard Lutnick view of tariffs as either a leveraging tool to reduce foreign tariffs on something like the Marshall Plan? I would prefer tariffs to an income tax, but if the threat of them is enough to get closer to free trade, I see that as a win. Also, the episode with Tom Luongi was great! Make him a regular!
Only about halfway through, but I thought the main benefit to tariffs were to correct the resulting patterns of domestic investment as a result of foreign industrial policy (foreign tariffs on US goods or foreign subsidies to their own industries). Think of China massively subsidizing their steel industry, EU having huge tariffs on US manufactured goods. The US, would then logically invest less in steel making capacity and manufacturing capacity, and more in raw commodities to export for those foreign goods. Of course, that would mean overinvesting in us commodities production and under investing in steel production and manufactured goods production. Our market would be distorted by foreign interventions. very bad as under investing over long periods of time least to knowledge and human capital loss in potentially key industries once those foreign industrial policies inevitably fail. goods defecit is really caused by other things and could not be fully corrected by tariffs except to bring foreign trade closer to 0 (minimizing magnitude, but not direction per say)
China has nothing to subsidize with. Like all government, they have to take from others to "subsidize." Any subsidy that lowers prices to us is a 'sale'
How can we get more people knowledgeable in Austrian Economics and proper true libertarian principles and ethics into positions of gvmt that actually have decision-making influence !? The Pauls and Massie are not enough, the couple of people in the AfD in Germany are not enough, one or two in Austria are not enough, and Maxime Bernier here in Canada with his Peoples Party of Canada are not enough, either - at least we need the Bib Murphys, Tom Woods, Thomas DiLorenzos, Huelsmanns, Hans Hermann Hoppes … … of the world to be advisers and people who state agents consult for decisionmaking advice -
Not gonna happen. Libertarians or more advanced thinkers do not support government. Once you're in a gov position your job is on the line. People will tend to bend their beliefs or their informed philosophy to allow for the continuation of their income. You aren't becoming a mayor or senator to defund yourself and eliminate your own job
@@constablekohler - ha ! .. yes - funny you say that… it has long been my proposal that if I were to become president of a country I’d make it part of the plan to abolish the role of president ! … well, along with plenty other roles, of course, too - At least we can watch J Milei doing some of that in Argentina currently - one may be encouraged to have a bit of hope… after all, the pendulum can only swing so far to one side of the options..
I just have random conversations with people and see who's responsive. I have been extremely surprised by who knew things compared to their appearance.
My apartment has a huge trade deficit People here are constantly importing steak and eggs but export almost nothing (just some secondhand goods now and then) It's going to be wild when we install a factory in my living room so that our long-run exports can catch up
@@anonymousAJ no, Hawaii roughly breaks even with USA after accounting for tourism dollars and welfare payments from fedgov. your apartment complex runs a surplus with the employers of the tenants of the apartment complex (or they run a defecit if there are a lot of retirees living on savings). the apartment owners make a surplus with the tenants after netting out what they owe banks and operational expenses.
@@anonymousAJ welfare payments don't require exports to pay for them, just other states with a gun to their head. Otherwise, agricultural goods and tourism, often. Did you not know that tourism is considered an export?
tariffs are useful temporary tools for corrections towards self sufficiency for a nation,. they are, and should be considered as corrective mechanisms. they are not permanent, they are as transient as any current policy may dictate. if the policy is to enact a correction to a perceived domestic issue of self reliance, sovereignty, productivity, and innovation, then they are a most welcome tool to that end. the us needs to internalize many of its critical security infrastructure. it needs to correct for the loss of local sustainability due to the outsourcing of important manufacturing industries. once corrected, and on a better footing, the us will revisit its tariffs, and return to a more nominal trade relationship with competitors.
no country can be full self sufficient with modern standards of living. the USA is the only country that could come close (and perhaps Russia) but living standards would almost neccesarilly go down without some degree of trade. some basic examples are lanthide refining (basically too dirty to do here unless we want vast acerage turned into toxic slurry), avocados, rubber, and other materials that can't be grown or mined locally. low productivity manufacturing is also much more challenging in the usa because our labor pool is highly skilled. not everything can be automated sufficiently. but take a country like Germany? or China? or India? let alone countries like Spain (who tried for decades unsuccessfully to become autarkic). mises warned about this tendency. what you want is stuff to be made where it makes sense to make it (eg. steel in great lakes because of cheap transport, local availability of abundant amounts of raw resources required to make it, and labor availability. or manufacturing near large ports in order to take advantage of other synergies. high skilled work near where universities are in large cities. etc.)
If the unit of time is always infinite what good is any of these equations? There can be no Murphy-land because there can be no day zero. We have massive government exactly because of this term evasion imposed by election. A 4 year term equals any and every claim on infinity.
What this debate is ignoring is the fact of welfare. Practically speaking person who got unemployed would not go into labour market but on welfare which increases taxation requirementson already established industries, secondly his chances of getting addicted and become a petty criminal also increases which causes social problems and decrease standard of living. Also people on welfare will vote for more welfare which is a big threat to democracy. Also if we depend on international trade for our goods, the justification for foreign wars increases because we cannot allow disruption of supply lines. So tariffs should be seen as a welfare scheme or self sufficiency of local govt, then it makes sense. Edit: just listened to full podcast. USA right now is not investing in capital goods but consumption so trade deficits are bad. If Rob's argument that deficits can cause future growth were actually happening, american manufacturing would be booming. The only reason international investors are investing in USA is that most of them have a short term or medium term vision. They neither have desire nor incentive to make long term planning because they are competing with each other and short term gains make for great advertisement. And like any bubble they will make a great living right till the end of dollar bubble. Also trade non competitiveness is a symptom of broader economic, social and cultural decline of a society which is not addressed till a stress reached the elites of society. The level of economic competitiveness with other country is not a sure shot thing or a fixed thing. Also the argument that Japanese wont have dollar to buy wheat if they sell less cars is a little weak because the very presence of trade surplus means japanese have dollars
a lot of good points but some I disagree with. labor is heterogenous. often, people laid off go on welfare not because they're super lazy, but because there are not enough opportunities to use their skill sets nearby (eg. think of a machinist at an auto plant that automated or moved all jobs 4 states over and it was the only one of its kind in the town.) they could move but that comes with greet expense and often wages that aren't neccesarilly large enough to overcome it. they could try to retrain but that's often foolhardy as a machinist can't neccesarilly program even if they go to school for it. it's also expensive and they may have to move anyway. in other words, I think welfare is poor for long term human capital development, but it doesn't create labor shortages per say. just slows the amount of labor dynamicism in the long term. your other points are more or less correct. id modify the comment on capital goods investment. it is occurring actually and us manufacturing output has increased steadily year over year, just not at the rate of other sectors. it has nothing to do with investors having short or medium run time horizons. this occurs due to an understanding of long term time horizons. in a world where there will be dollar sinks outside of the usa (eg. petrodollar, high instability of all dollar alternatives, black market treatment of cash as king, USA having the strongest military, and the USA having the largest and most open domestic market to fuel export leas growth in other countries), goods produced in usa will always be less competitive due to the dollar's strength.
Typically, a person doesn't die with any real amount of money to give to their children And if given to their children, it's because they expect the children will spend it.
I'm retired at 27, This video here reminds me of my transformation from a nobody to having over 65,000 biweekly profit, a honest partner and a good daughter full of love ❤
I can still remember the exact feeling on my biggest payday in the market. Imagine taking home $407k just from 12k initial deposit. For the newbies I'll encourage anyone to embrace copytrade as the best approach especially when you're a newbie
Huge! been trying to trade on my own for a while now but it isn't going well. Few weeks ago I lost about $10,000 in a particular trade. Can you at least advise me on what to do?
🙏 *12k to 407k is significant increase. My first copytrade wasn't profitable. Please share who you copy trade*
I only copytrade one manager
Coashjanice...that's it💯.
- If we don't import Japanese cars, the dollar will strengthen, and American wheat will become too expensive.
- We actually have a plan for that, we'll subsidize wheat.
- You gotta be kidding.
I'm in! Let's make Rothbardia!
I'm looking forward to coming back to this one after George's live stream in a few min.
Thanks Bob!!!
One of the arguments this video doesn't address is the comparison between the Value-Added Tax (VAT) and Tariffs. It's my understanding that the US does not currently charge VAT on imports however most countries assess these taxes. So wouldn't a VAT be another form of a tariff?
Great summary.
As I see it - the trade deficit wouldn't even exist had the foreigners not wanted US assets (the exchange rate adjustments point) - but they did want them, and not just the treasuries but, in large part - US stocks. And from the perspective of the US Economy one could view US Equities as a 'produce' that is being sold and which will be replaced by the next crop of new home-grown stocks (companies).
The primary (or only) problem that is indeed hiding behind the trade deficit is that the net imports have taken the form of non-yielding, depreciating consumables as opposed to capital goods. And if anyone can be blamed for this core issue (over-consumption) within trade deficits it's the Fed (suppressed Fed rate) and the US Government (the illusion of free money for all whims).
Thanks, Bob.
I think this explains something I hadn't understood, which was that even as the US injected funds into the economy during COVID, other countries complained of difficulty obtaining US dollars. The explanation could be that due to lockdowns, there was a decreased need by the US, or countries holding reserves of US dollars, of buying (importing) oil.
Thanks for making this video, Bob. Would you discuss the Howard Lutnick view of tariffs as either a leveraging tool to reduce foreign tariffs on something like the Marshall Plan? I would prefer tariffs to an income tax, but if the threat of them is enough to get closer to free trade, I see that as a win.
Also, the episode with Tom Luongi was great! Make him a regular!
Only about halfway through, but I thought the main benefit to tariffs were to correct the resulting patterns of domestic investment as a result of foreign industrial policy (foreign tariffs on US goods or foreign subsidies to their own industries). Think of China massively subsidizing their steel industry, EU having huge tariffs on US manufactured goods. The US, would then logically invest less in steel making capacity and manufacturing capacity, and more in raw commodities to export for those foreign goods. Of course, that would mean overinvesting in us commodities production and under investing in steel production and manufactured goods production. Our market would be distorted by foreign interventions. very bad as under investing over long periods of time least to knowledge and human capital loss in potentially key industries once those foreign industrial policies inevitably fail.
goods defecit is really caused by other things and could not be fully corrected by tariffs except to bring foreign trade closer to 0 (minimizing magnitude, but not direction per say)
China has nothing to subsidize with. Like all government, they have to take from others to "subsidize." Any subsidy that lowers prices to us is a 'sale'
How can we get more people knowledgeable in Austrian Economics and proper true libertarian principles and ethics into positions of gvmt that actually have decision-making influence !? The Pauls and Massie are not enough, the couple of people in the AfD in Germany are not enough, one or two in Austria are not enough, and Maxime Bernier here in Canada with his Peoples Party of Canada are not enough, either - at least we need the Bib Murphys, Tom Woods, Thomas DiLorenzos, Huelsmanns, Hans Hermann Hoppes … … of the world to be advisers and people who state agents consult for decisionmaking advice -
Breakaway civilization.
Not gonna happen. Libertarians or more advanced thinkers do not support government. Once you're in a gov position your job is on the line. People will tend to bend their beliefs or their informed philosophy to allow for the continuation of their income. You aren't becoming a mayor or senator to defund yourself and eliminate your own job
Anarcho capitalism is out of reach for a lot of people because it would mean having at least an intermediate understanding of economics.
@@constablekohler - ha ! .. yes - funny you say that… it has long been my proposal that if I were to become president of a country I’d make it part of the plan to abolish the role of president ! … well, along with plenty other roles, of course, too - At least we can watch J Milei doing some of that in Argentina currently - one may be encouraged to have a bit of hope… after all, the pendulum can only swing so far to one side of the options..
I just have random conversations with people and see who's responsive. I have been extremely surprised by who knew things compared to their appearance.
Bob is an absolute legend for making videos like these. Keep them coming.
My apartment has a huge trade deficit
People here are constantly importing steak and eggs but export almost nothing (just some secondhand goods now and then)
It's going to be wild when we install a factory in my living room so that our long-run exports can catch up
don't they run a trade surplus with their employers?
@@classiclibertarian Not in my apartment
For another example: Hawaii imports way more than it exports, unless you count happy memories as an export
@@anonymousAJ no, Hawaii roughly breaks even with USA after accounting for tourism dollars and welfare payments from fedgov.
your apartment complex runs a surplus with the employers of the tenants of the apartment complex (or they run a defecit if there are a lot of retirees living on savings). the apartment owners make a surplus with the tenants after netting out what they owe banks and operational expenses.
@@classiclibertarian tourism dollars and welfare? What did they export to get those?
@@anonymousAJ welfare payments don't require exports to pay for them, just other states with a gun to their head. Otherwise, agricultural goods and tourism, often. Did you not know that tourism is considered an export?
tariffs are useful temporary tools for corrections towards self sufficiency for a nation,. they are, and should be considered as corrective mechanisms. they are not permanent, they are as transient as any current policy may dictate. if the policy is to enact a correction to a perceived domestic issue of self reliance, sovereignty, productivity, and innovation, then they are a most welcome tool to that end. the us needs to internalize many of its critical security infrastructure. it needs to correct for the loss of local sustainability due to the outsourcing of important manufacturing industries. once corrected, and on a better footing, the us will revisit its tariffs, and return to a more nominal trade relationship with competitors.
no country can be full self sufficient with modern standards of living. the USA is the only country that could come close (and perhaps Russia) but living standards would almost neccesarilly go down without some degree of trade.
some basic examples are lanthide refining (basically too dirty to do here unless we want vast acerage turned into toxic slurry), avocados, rubber, and other materials that can't be grown or mined locally. low productivity manufacturing is also much more challenging in the usa because our labor pool is highly skilled. not everything can be automated sufficiently.
but take a country like Germany? or China? or India? let alone countries like Spain (who tried for decades unsuccessfully to become autarkic). mises warned about this tendency.
what you want is stuff to be made where it makes sense to make it (eg. steel in great lakes because of cheap transport, local availability of abundant amounts of raw resources required to make it, and labor availability. or manufacturing near large ports in order to take advantage of other synergies. high skilled work near where universities are in large cities. etc.)
If the unit of time is always infinite what good is any of these equations? There can be no Murphy-land because there can be no day zero. We have massive government exactly because of this term evasion imposed by election. A 4 year term equals any and every claim on infinity.
What this debate is ignoring is the fact of welfare. Practically speaking person who got unemployed would not go into labour market but on welfare which increases taxation requirementson already established industries, secondly his chances of getting addicted and become a petty criminal also increases which causes social problems and decrease standard of living. Also people on welfare will vote for more welfare which is a big threat to democracy.
Also if we depend on international trade for our goods, the justification for foreign wars increases because we cannot allow disruption of supply lines.
So tariffs should be seen as a welfare scheme or self sufficiency of local govt, then it makes sense.
Edit: just listened to full podcast. USA right now is not investing in capital goods but consumption so trade deficits are bad. If Rob's argument that deficits can cause future growth were actually happening, american manufacturing would be booming. The only reason international investors are investing in USA is that most of them have a short term or medium term vision. They neither have desire nor incentive to make long term planning because they are competing with each other and short term gains make for great advertisement. And like any bubble they will make a great living right till the end of dollar bubble.
Also trade non competitiveness is a symptom of broader economic, social and cultural decline of a society which is not addressed till a stress reached the elites of society. The level of economic competitiveness with other country is not a sure shot thing or a fixed thing.
Also the argument that Japanese wont have dollar to buy wheat if they sell less cars is a little weak because the very presence of trade surplus means japanese have dollars
a lot of good points but some I disagree with.
labor is heterogenous. often, people laid off go on welfare not because they're super lazy, but because there are not enough opportunities to use their skill sets nearby (eg. think of a machinist at an auto plant that automated or moved all jobs 4 states over and it was the only one of its kind in the town.) they could move but that comes with greet expense and often wages that aren't neccesarilly large enough to overcome it. they could try to retrain but that's often foolhardy as a machinist can't neccesarilly program even if they go to school for it. it's also expensive and they may have to move anyway. in other words, I think welfare is poor for long term human capital development, but it doesn't create labor shortages per say. just slows the amount of labor dynamicism in the long term.
your other points are more or less correct. id modify the comment on capital goods investment. it is occurring actually and us manufacturing output has increased steadily year over year, just not at the rate of other sectors. it has nothing to do with investors having short or medium run time horizons. this occurs due to an understanding of long term time horizons. in a world where there will be dollar sinks outside of the usa (eg. petrodollar, high instability of all dollar alternatives, black market treatment of cash as king, USA having the strongest military, and the USA having the largest and most open domestic market to fuel export leas growth in other countries), goods produced in usa will always be less competitive due to the dollar's strength.
Typically, a person doesn't die with any real amount of money to give to their children And if given to their children, it's because they expect the children will spend it.