Planned reforms at China's third plenum may not fully solve short-term economic challenges: Analyst
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- Опубліковано 28 вер 2024
- China's planned reforms at its long-awaited third plenum next month may not necessarily solve the country's sluggish economy in the short term, Dr Jin Keyu, associate professor of economics at the London School of Economics and Political Science, tells CNA on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Dalian. She also weighs in on the overcapacity debate and where China-United States ties may be headed.
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![How Important are the US and China Within Global Trade? - Keyu Jin [2023] | Intelligence Squared](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/n_kOMjBHK6s/mqdefault.jpg)
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No one says Toyota, BMW, Tesla have overcapacity.
China only exports 15% of their ev production, while Japan 58%, south Korea 50%, Germany 80%.
Hey west, Be reasonable.
The real overcapcity is us dollar print.
there a over capacity of LGBTQ in Murica
Overcapacity means in excess of demand. Western products and currencies are still very much wanted around the world.
@@doujinflipno one want chinese products,so what u talk so much about for what?
Spot on bro 😅😅❤❤
@@doujinflip so you mean no one wants chinese products? then why do you even need to hike the taririf??? it means just the opposite, chinese products are too popular and you are not happy that's why you hike the tarriffs.
Why should China explain what they are doing to the US
因为美国人已经迷失了，不知道该怎么办
For world peace.
@@DragonYang01 since china has not yet lunch an invasion am sure they still believe on working towards peace but the US should stop playing games with other nations instead encouraging other nations to foster peace and stability (actions speak louder than words or voice).
@@SallieuKoroma-sl4ck Why you do think US wants peace? In the last 60 years, US has been in war with some states, nearly non-stopping.
Peace is what the ruling Party says they believe, but their acts point clearly toward shaping for an offensive in an upcoming kinetic battlefield.
Dumping ?
The issue is that China's EVs are selling at anticompetitive prices that threaten production of EVs in other countries, which creates a market inefficiency artificially. The so-called dumping of EVs helps China's economy in the short run at the cost of other countries and the long-term EV market.
When you lose out in the competition you call it anticompetitive prices. People like. you are so great at creating new terms to describe China almost every year to paint China in a bad light.
So true. Its a common challenge for humanity. Need to all contribute more not hinder trade
Why nonody looks into the historical data?? During 80s the Japanese cars and products has caused over capacity
Maybe people did, and they realised China is not Japan. In 2023, China has 231 motor vehicles per 1,000 people, and Japan has 661 per 1,000 people. There are still a lot of room to grow.
the japanese built automobile production plants and supply chains in the US benefitting the local economy while China just wants to keep all the jobs to themselves, selling cars at greatly subsidized prices and hollowing out another countries industrial base. Hopefully, these countries have come to their senses and do what the chinese have been doing for years which is to place tariffs on imports and force car makers who want to do business to invest in factories and hiring locals.
Are the US and EU,asking China to slow down on renewable energy ?
😥The coronavirus COVID-19 has killed 7,010,681 people globally since the pandemic began in China. 🇨🇳
Correct, not fully solve short-term economic challenges.
But it's moving in the right direction.
They don’t need to do something silly to rush for next e1ecti0n.
Most Western politicians only plan until the next e1ecti0n and never make long-term plans for the people.
Jai Hind. We Indians are envied due to our humongous undercapacity. But demand could be much higher due to our dismally low pays in spite of supercharged productivity.
CNA uses Bollywood movies as their source?
Stop real estate investment, it's not helping human kind
CNA should be applauded for finding shortcomings of everything China does , reflecting the mindset of many “elite” Singaporeans who don’t want or think China can and will take over US .
What is going to happened if every government starts to subsidizes local businesses ?
Many governments provide some form of subsidies for industries that is important to their economy
@@Dollarrmb-pk6ub yup, 99% of the time to their agricultural sector. Cause they wants to be self-sufficient when it comes to food.
Every government is already doing that
It already happened all over the world in years. 😅
Japan, The US, EU countries etc all do it. Tesla and Google for example were all heavily subsidised. People need to wake up from Oligarchy propaganda.
The Chinese production will be used to tackle climate change. Such simple concept and yet US and European nations do not understand. Maybe these nations are not sincere in tackling climate change.
@@Jin-oq2qu there is no way china can produce such cheap solar panels without massive ccp subsidy
The very definition of dumping and trade imbalance when a countries Govt undercuts and basically produces at cost to destroy other countries
Look at crayfish and steel dumping
I'd like to ask the the economists on her thoughts about China having 300 EV manufacturers in 2019 and now bit over 100 left. And over 100 sounds like a number that is not actually sustainable in any way by markets, but by subsidy. I don't mind "overcapacity" either when it's based on markets, but when it's based on subsidies, it's a problem. Creating good for China with such methods is directly harmful to the other players who play with market rules. She pretty much avoided the whole question about subsidies, "ooh it's bad race to the bottom" but China is doing it massively in comparison to others. What's the solution to China playing with different rules than others, currently it seems to be tariffs and bans?
History lesson of steel industry
It most likely will not solve anything.
Unless the West is willing to change....
Todo está ya dicho en rumble señores todo es todo basta fin.
CNA interview someone who share China view 👍
No. Someone who speaks of what she really thinks and based on fact.
@cinpeace353 Well, this is still very very rare occasion 😊. I am surprised to see. Normally China expert are people who live outside China, do not speak nor read Chinese 😉
@@fajarliong Those are so called "experts", not real one. 😂😂
@cinpeace353 is it? I believe a news channel at this calibre would verify through its news source reliability.
Isn't that China expert passing some kind of exam to hold the title "China expert". Certainly they go through some examination to be certified as "China expert". Maybe one who scores A in all subjects in the exam then would be entitled to "China expert", and they certainly show their certificate to news Channel before being interviewed. Where is the exam held? And who is the exam provider? What standard do they use?
If we do not have this, then everyone is "China expert" 😄😊😊
@@fajarliong lol, the only exam they need to pass is are their narratives fits the need of the channels or will it create the attentions they want, that's how most channels work nowadays. 😂😂
Keyu jin: dont worry where technology comes from.
Because it will never come from china. 😂😂😂😂
CNA again giving China a platform to speak with no rebuttal.
Just do it the easy way like the Americans: Print more money.
Shouldn't China be pursuing clean-water and clean-air policies instead of trying to undermine other countries democracies?
Why do you care about how people live in the US, if you yourself don't even have clean water to drink, and clean air to breathe?
I don't understand your priorities.
the prices in the west too expensive
Over-capacity = in excess of market needs internal or external.
Overcapacity = strong intention for price dumping😊 Yellen spoke a politicians language but the main concern was really that one China did for steel and solar. Bad track record unfortunately is indefensible
@@ssuwandi3240 Aluminum ?
@@fromtheoutside37 that too, thanks
When the US, President Bong Bong’s master, can not compete, she will bring all kinds of excuse to attack others without examining her own productivity’s problems.
Why should China be more open with what they do when the US and other Western countries are not open with China in what they do?
If China does It would be taken as a sign of weakness by the US and other Western countries.
China achieving the best it can, cuts into the dominance of the West, economically, militarily and politically and unfortunately, many of them are stuck in outdated and failing socio-economic systems which are difficult and costly to restructure. .
Keyu Jin is an amazing woman. So beautiful and so smart too.
There are NO misinterpretations !!! Look at who is exiting China CCP, - everyone: U.S., E.U., S. Korea, Japan, etc !!!!!!!
Have the Chinese asked permission from the US Israel
Smart lady. Thing is it seems nearly impossible to dispel the irrational “red phobia” which is locked into the US mindset. Religious ideologies are at the heart of this issue, that is a massive obstacle to overcome before any sort of rational trade relationship can be established.
More transparent in Gaza via Isreal.
The Chinese can cry but both US presidential candidates are competing with each other on who can up the tariffs on Chinese imports. 😂
You mean laughing at a Dumb and Dumber show. 😂😂
Not smart as her appreance
So are LSE & Harvard PhD degrees obtained by "not smart" people ?
She is beautiful and smart ❤❤
pretty chinois women
หน้าตา ในอุดมคติ^^
Foollish professions and experts! :)
It takes the daughter of a CPC member with a Harvard PhD to explain basic market principles to a supposedly capitalist audience. Strange times we live in!
Everybody knows it's not about market principles but who holds the upper hand in future energy and secure supply chain.
@@surfspark EU didn't know they are buying Russian gas from India just so they can spend more money on the same gas they sanction.
你就是毛泽东说的教条主义，资本主义有市场经济，社会主义也有市场经济，一切推动人类进步与文明的才是好经济，而不是自私、侵略、偏见和无知You are the dogmatism that Mao Zedong talked about. Capitalism has a market economy, socialism also has a market economy, and everything that promotes human progress and civilization is a good economy, not selfishness, aggression, prejudice and ignorance.
Indeed.
Lots of misinformation though. Sounds rather insecure when citing many false numbers. China isn't part of the global supply at all chain as their surveillance policy alone Isn't considered legit. You can listen up to yourself here very conflicting context. Global is one person's illusion as China is in the Sanctions list. That's Global? How?
Keyu jin: dont worry where technology comes from.
Because it will never come from china. 😂😂😂😂
Since when is cheap exports that control infatuation rate a bad thing. Does CNA wants us to buy overpriced furniture from the west instead of the same thing from Taobao?
what is it that the CNA has said that shows that they are taking a stand in this matter?
@@keithng5249
Tabao products suck anyway
@@djibicisse lol, no they don't suck. You are just prejudiced.
@@gelinrefira some are incredibly flimsy and break fast lol
Who cares where It’s from
With US/EU weaponisig the Dollar and sanctions it is unwise to encourage Chinese investments in America and EU where they are at great risks of being seized with impunity.
And this is different from all the foreign capital invested in China how?
Hello
Hello again
The problem that EU put geopolitics ahead of economic as can be in the sanctions of Russia that destroy the EU economy.
Coz Europe isn't sovereign, it's occupied by the US military
Same for Russia
Jin Keyu is just so incredibly selfish. She monopolises beauty, she monopolises intelligence. Can't you just leave something for others?
She’s in UK, u what to trade for her PRC passport?
😊😅❤
No fairness in this world.... 😂
Id question the intelligence as she only spouts the CCP propaganda to be honest
She's absolutely stunning
You got Yellow Fever. She's pretty but not stunning.
Why would you invest in EU or US when your assets might be be frozen or seized as they deem?
invest in zhong guo hao?
A very gorgeous and talented woman. Respect!
What a Wonderful speaker is Keyu Jin!
No sense in building factories in Europe, no power!
Nothing but the truth... 😂
The U.S. faces a critical shortage of experts on China.
并不短缺，只是他们都不去学习中文
They are not allowed to talk in US MSM. Both Jeffrey Sachs and Ray Dalio are famous US citizens that know China well, for example.
They do not necessary know China well. They are very pro China. @@cinpeace353
Critical shortage of Politicians with average I.Q OVER 80
@@jackychen5578 , 即使他們學了中文，也只是專門用來斷章取義，攻訐中國和中國人、中國文化罷了。看看有一隻 叫 陸克文的 就知道了。他的口語中文都還號稱流利呢。但是他懂個屁啊！
It is symptomatic of an American and European sickness that when they cannot compete against China, they will use all kinds of devious and protectionist means like high tariffs to dent China's exports and competitiveness. It wil not work and I am confident China will overcome these obstacles to her growth.
The total trade (imports and exports) between the US and China in 2023 was ~3% of China's GDP.
While US tariffs and sanctions are being placed on China by the week, China's exports for H1 of 2024 stands at over 6%. China's June 2024 exports were +8.6% YOY.
While the US is busy with wars in Ukraine, Gaza and trying to stoke conflict in Asia, China has been busy expanding its BRI, making trade deals and strengthening its economic ties globally.
CNA China bashing again 😂
She is a Professor and not merely an economist.
Western media
cna is zhongguo media in west land? why western media?
COME ON , SHE A LOT MORE ! MMMH , MMMH !!!
My current view is - although CN* is owned by the LRD Gov't, its allegiance is to the CI*/Deepstate.
Why the LRD Gov't allows it is beyond my comprehension. They should know that "democracy" depends on media to inform its citizens and misinformed citizens will lead the inherently flawed "democracy" to go down rapidly.
However, I find Prof. Keyu Jin a very fair & objective Economist/Observer.
@@cao6496 ，學者Cao 曹郃，you must be born yesterday, so that you never know what Channel News America is and how it is abbreviated.
@@resnica3557 I know oldgapore and it was "Channel NewsAsia" not ba ba bla America..... Red channel or what? oldgapore friend does not understand lor. ok la. shake hand la.
Even if its over capacity its non of usa business at sll .
She is amazing in every sense.
There's no over capacity, it's just a term for the loosers
beauty with brains! Ms Jin.🎉🎉🎉
who are these paid posters bots? are they from russia?
Open communication among parties, do more people to people exchanges, doing more collaboration rather than protectionist as it only deterrents and disrupts economic development. This is the win win solution. Some parties may lack competitiveness and lack confidence in their economy, but if distrust keeps going, it will only hurt more to their economy.
China only wants events that they organize though. Beijing literally pulled the plug on a concert held by the US embassy, so if they can't stand something as neutral as music how can we trust them with more substantial exchanges?
bullshit
Everyone is simping for keyu jin 🥴🥴🥴
The wumaos like you, yes. 😂
there are no culture issues
money speaks same language how much does it cost and how much are
we getting for !!!
💸 💰 🤑
Its the people and the culture. Chinese all over the world study harder in school and AT HOME inspite of Govt Planning.
Sleight of hand tricks like sanctions, propaganda, false figures and regulations can help only for a while but its self reliance, patience, improvements and support that works. Look at BYD, NIO, SMIC, and C919 in detail and not right now but YEARS from
now. Many yesterday products from the West will fall away or fall behind. When fast-charging or swapping, or better Batteries
come, EVs will then take over. Sanctions will not work because China has a huge market. Where will US or Canada stand?
China has surpassed the production in all low price products which the west is considered as over capacity supplies because they themselves at weak at spending due to bad economy strategy. The EU is also playing politics in business to protected themselves being losing out in the game.
Of course the solving the short term is not that imporatn if it succeeds in the long term. The west runs everything short term, seems like short term is a few weeks in the west. What is mostt important is the long term--decades.
just separate the 2 economy, China can do what they want and US can do what they want - no more trade, so WWIII can start. why all the delay? just get it over with.
Who this women?? beuatiful
Excellent overview.
GOOD SENSE, My Lady.
The United States' most exported product is refined petroleum, which includes gasoline, diesel, and other refined oil products. This has consistently been a leading export due to the country's significant global refining capacity and demand for energy products. It's basically a gas station.
Gucci say need the news
A word salad with no information substance
Thats becos' you're too dense to understand
skill issue
Excellent insight from the Chinese economist. She’s right on that there are huge misconceptions of China’s intentions and vision. However, there is little China can do to affect these misconceptions when the US and the collective west are deliberately and relentlessly demonizing China on every turn. As we can all agree, the US and the collective west absolutely control the info space.
As such, I disagree that China ought to be more open. China couldn’t be more open. It publishes its 5-year plans openly for the world to see. Then they execute vigorously according to plan. There are no surprises in its goals and aims. No other country can even come close in terms of being open with their long-term plans and vision.
Realize that some governments eliminate uncivilized and uncontrollable human beings; and then unprofitable people are kept outside of great walls.
Please help anyone,
Allow more of anyone to come into your home land to stay and live.
Please see what you're doing in our sea.
Absolutely Fascinating! Bless Motherland, China 10,000 Years!👍🇨🇳🙂
China monitors and adjust initial reforms rationally to ensure that the policy objectives are met.
Chinese scholar and professor are infiltrated in Singapore too.
China don't just try to solve short term problems.
No soy beans to China from US now though lol
Good morning ❤️🇸🇬🇨🇳🦾😇🌹
Prof Jin is always very articulate and knowledgeable, but no matter what she says, China being transparent and communicative, at the end of the day, China is just outpacing US day by day. If you were US, you would be so scared and agitated as well, that's understandable. So US is now really desperate. This is a phase, it's short term, it will pass, then US will get used to it. However, whatever US is doing now, "derisk" or "delink", it has sped up China's leading in many areas. Anyway, they are just doing their jobs, they have to do sth lol
She is just repeating what CCP reasoning in arguing that it is not over capacity. However one views it from the demand and supply of the China domestic market, it is over capacity. To resolve the over capacity, it could either export (causing unemployment problem outside China) or consolidate internally and cause job losses inside China.
So everyone that exports is in overcapacity?😂😂😂😂
Song, you are not a learning person, kind of un.. educated
You're the one who views things like the biased and agenda-driven West. TO you any country that produces & exports in excess of domestic demand is in "overcapacity". So is Japan, Germany, Korea the top 3 automotive exporter for the last 3-4 decades in overcapacity ???
And you are just repeating whatever Janet Yellen has programmed into your head. You'll soon be ready for fleecing.
They are not, because the global market is still buying.
China to promote domestic consumption to fuel sustainable growth.
Still failed though and funny she blamed that Chinese didn't get stimulus like in West! 😊 where are those 50+ billionaires are hiding and why not helping to spend
They are dreaming
@@Hkchinese888 exactly. Why these rich people stop hiring, clearly they do not need a stimulus when export has been bouncing back..
@@ssuwandi3240 You're dreaming, too.
They don't want to spend because they feel insecure, they can't depend on welfare system, there is no such thing in China.
@@Hkchinese888 that's why giving away a stimulus will not make a difference if the Chinese will not spend it but stuffing it back to state owned banks. Her excuse is strange.. Stimulus is a one time welfare program in a state of emergency
Don't worry, we are 遙遙領先，遙遙領先。
😂😂
@@ToiChutGongWu哈哈，se7en appears everywhere
@@ToiChutGongWu little pinks are everywhere
@@ToiChutGongWu 😂 Scream louder Xi’spammer 😂
Means the state is running out of cash the longer Russia war is pressing China trades more countries will start to guard their exports
The problem with the soybean comparison is - if US heavily subsidized and mass produced soybeans to the point where it dominated global industries to the point where other countries' soybean industries couldnt compete with artificially low prices and went out of business - then it would be the same, but that is not the case. The problem is not exporting goods you have a lot of, its the heavy subsidies that distort market forces and give an insane advantage over others.
The subsides given to US auto companies over the years far outweigh those given by the Chinese government to it's car companies. And of course, the US has a raft of subsidies, tariffs and quotas for other industries.
@@Storm4155 absolutely false. Stop lying please
@@valetudo1569 GM and Chrysler never paid back all the money they got, about $12 billion was never paid back. I believe Tesla and Ford took loans but have paid back the money. The US energy department announced subsidies and loans last year totalling $12 billion, and The Biden administration has announced a $174 billion package to aid EV production. Maybe "far outweigh" was an exaggeration, but Chinese auto companies have received $5.6 billlion(2022 figures) in comparison.
@@Storm4155 Pales in comparison the direct and indirect subsidies these cars get. Ford and GM aren't exporting to the world at below market value, smart guy. Subsidizing for green energy for domestic market is not the same as subsidizing to dominate global markets and destroy global competition. You have no clue what you're talking about.
You also don't know what indirect subsidies are, do you? Such as - cheap land, cheap electricity, etc. Lets see what the EU findings are about their subsidies
@@Storm4155 China has spent at least $230.8 billion over the past decade to develop its electric vehicle (EV) industry. Lol I like how you cherry pick 2022 randomly, as if the previous decade doesn't matter. You're a disingenuous, bad faith actor
Asking CCP to be transparent, good luck with that....🤣🤣🤣
要求西方保持透明？祝你好运
CPC don't go around the world steal people hard earn money like the west does.
This person presents a thoughtful view but she loses points with me on suggesting the west is not showing enough restraint while not addressing Chinese lack of restraint by ramming Filipino boats and flying daily threatening sorties over Taiwan. Look at yourself and not just the complaints about others.
Bong Bong, the President of Philippines, is the most unintelligent leader among the ASEAN!
Chinese 🇨🇳 property sector, which accounts for 30% of GDP, is crashing.
- Exports and imports, accounting for 37% GDP, are down.
- Foreign investment (FDI) is falling over 90%, lowest in 3 decades.
- Foreign visitors are down 96% compared to the pre-pandemic level in 2019.
- Consumer prices are experiencing deflation.
- Youth unemployment hits over 21%, a record.
- Its fast-shrinking workforce is 10 years older than neighboring countries.
*Still, China keeps reporting outrageous GDP numbers.* Lol
Where does the growth come from?
Easy, they just fake the numbers 😅. Lies is the mantra of the regime
From the exact opposite of what has been naively stated by your good self! Chinanomics is not for the tunnel visioned ! Search for Keyu Jin's last few talks, not gordon chang's exploitation of -ve ideologues since 25 yrs ago! He's not complaining! His China Doomsday books of lies sell in the Anglo-Saxon sphere! LOL !😂
Debt and creative accounting. Just at a much more intense pace than the last 20 years.
Everything she said make sense. But if China want free access to the world market, then China must allowed free access into Chinese market. No more joined venture with Chinese owned companies.
Keyu Jin looks delicious also intelligence
No need to follow rules when dealing with the CCP.
所以你们别要求中国遵守规则
@@jackychen5578 中国人就像他们的非洲祖先一样，从一开始就从不遵守规则。
That makes you no better than any ones....so up you ( fingers up you)😂😂
Ah yes, so say a lapdog of the "rules-based" order" whose mantra is MY way or the Highway. Brilliant🤮🤮🤮
The only CCP spokesperson who is good to look at and has a soft touch.
HUBBA HUBBA !!! If only I can remember WHAT she said huh ! But it is fine I feel good already YES !
Is Miss Jin in a relationship? 🎉
Already married to a British man and has a kid.
fully?😂😂😂 barely 😅😅😅! Absolutely …………impossible😊😊
it's always funny to hear CNA's anchors speak in standard Mandarin when it comes to Chinese names