Global Battery Supply Forecast to 2030 // Lithium & Sodium Ion // Part 4
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- Опубліковано 28 чер 2024
- Before we can understand Tesla's battery supply, we first need a forecast in hand for total global battery supply to 2030 that includes both lithium and sodium ion batteries. Today, I'll walk you through that forecast, along with the caveats, and in the next video we'll look at what all that means for Tesla.
This is Part 4 of the global lithium supply chain video.
Part 1: • Will Refining be the B...
Part 2: • Are Global Lithium Sup...
Part 3: • Lithium Supply by Coun...
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Timeline
00:00 Introduction
01:02 Thanks, Credits, and Sources
04:33 Global Lithium Supply Forecast
09:30 The Forecast for Sodium Ion Batteries
13:33 Combining the Li & Na Battery Forecasts
15:55 Closing Credits
Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said - Наука та технологія
Note: A lot of people are bringing up the 'Volcano' in the U.S. that contains a huge amount of lithium. This has no impact on the forecast...
It's the McDermitt Caldera and it's been known about for decades. Thacker Pass project run by Lithium Americas is at the Southern End of the Caldera, which I used as an example in the last video. That is, the extra potential lithium supply is already baked into my forecast.
Why is it in the news? It looks like they're doing further exploration and finding it's larger than expected. But, we already knew there's enough lithium there to meet all of the lithium needs of the U.S. So, what's lacking is investment.
Even if that investment does come, as I covered in the previous vidoes, it takes a long time to bring any new resource/reserve to production.
That is, I encourage those who are just watching this video to watch the other videos.
FYI DOE is set to provide low interest loan for LAC to finance Thacker Pass and the project is already under construction, first phase of 40,000 tpa is expected to be online in the second half of 2026. Agree that Thacker Pass production is baked into forecasts.
Would you expect the Lithium Americas mining operations to become quite large over the next twenty years, eventually taking full advantage of the scale of this deposit to become a global supplier? Or, is that unlikely, and they will remain a regionally interesting U.S. supplier?
@@colinkeizer7353Thacker Pass has the potential to join Greenbushes and the Atacama as one of the most significant sources of lithium globally. CEO talks of 4 phases. First phase is 40k tpa LCE.
@@danielgraham8559 Great! It will be fun watching this development happen. We don't often get to see mining companies scoop the ore off the surface of the ground with front-end loaders.
Phenomenally concise, objective, insightful, and informative work, as always!
Thanks for the kind words!
This, exactly.
It’s weird that you earn so less from UA-cam videos. These are really good quality contents. Maybe in few years when EVs are more prevalent people will check these videos to see what really goes into driving EVs!
I hope the advertising revenue accumulates over time. With each new, in-depth report perhaps TLF will eventually become a juggernaut of revenue generation. It seems to me something like that ought to happen, all this great work deserves a generous return.
YT is incredibly unjust for content creators. For exemple, when they demonitize one video, it keeps showing ads, so YT earns from it but do not repay the channel owner!
This is a really good series. Since my forced retirement due to Covid and long Covid (sucks to be me but middle of the pack for long Covid sufferers) I don't have a lot of spare change, so I am careful to choose nearly free forms of "entertainment". I appreciate the people who CAN afford to support channels like this; I suspect that this is the real future of journalism and also a voice for freedom (even without a political agenda, an educated country is a free country).
Kudos to TLF for great work! (Even if I don't always agree).
Thanks man!
THANKS JORDAN 🤗 FOR SHARING THIS FOURTH PART, AND GIVING CREDIT,WHERE DUE 👍💚💚💚
Once again, excellent work Jordon!
Thanks man!
Thanks!
Thx for your hard work!
Brilliant content! 👌
Awesome work!
Thank you!
I'm guessing the Li industry doesn't want the Na battery to succeed, so they will ramp up their efforts to mine/refine Li to meet demand, and they will reduce cost/prices to stay competitive. The fly in the ointment seems to be permitting. I really don't see a way around that.
They don't care really.
That's because they've been very cautious about opening mines and made sure demand is locked in for decades.
Lithium is fundamentally a better material for some applications, and demand will continue to grow in absolute terms, even if market share decreases
Yeah Im not sure sodium will have any impact on lithium demand just because the industies that *cannot* go to sodium-ion like aeronautics also happen to have more money to invest in more expensive materials. But we definitely need sodium-ion (or another equivalent) to succeed in order to meet demand at the lower end of the market. Im actually thinking advanced LiFePo formulations may take up much of the market currently held by high-nickel chemistries, and sodium-ion will take up where LiFePo currently is. With lithium-metal batteries taking over in aeronautics. With that trajectory, we may see a precipitous drop in demand for nickel and cobalt as we switch away almost completely from the "old" formulations of lithium ion cells. And a 4th technology (or some modified version of sodium chemistry) I suspect will take over for stable-storage/grid balancing. Of course that may take a decade or more, but IMO it is the only path forward that makes sense: purpose-specific chemistries that reduce costs and material demand for those specific use-cases.
@@patreekotime4578 I think you are being too ambitious for Sodium. A few Chinese companies are pushing it now in automotive primarily as a way to depress the lithium spot prices and gain more leverage with the lithium producers. Sodium will be a slow ramp (it now costs MORE than lithium to produce an actual sodium battery due to the low scale and development costs). Eventually it will likely make large inroads into stationary storage, and in a few decades if something else doesn't come along it could be the choice for things like international ocean shipping. But the BEV market is going to remain largely split between the nickel based high end lithium cells and the lower end iron based lithium cells.
And, of course low end scooters and mini cars primarily in China could go sodium too, think applications where cost is more important than utility.
good stuff thanks
Thanks
Amazing video. Something I've been wondering is if Tesla will make use of Sodium Ion Iron Phosphate. Not for cars but for stationary energy storage such as Tesla Power walls and MegaBatteries. Pethaps that could help save lithium for cars and make things less hard, specially when it comes to resource allocation. I just saw some news on X that a new Lithium reserve (about as large as the existing in the Bolivian salt flats) was found in a volcano in USA. The more we seek, the more we find. Now that sounds promising, but as you already explained in other videos, it takes years to break ground and start mining, so I guess sodium could provide some relief. Tesla has already gone into Lithium refining, but not into lithium mining yet. Do you think with all this they will have to do it eventually? After all, they were all into vertical integration, perhaps they alongside Boring Company can bring some innovation in mining?
Yup! Eventually I think.
As for the "new" lithium reserve...it's not. Just the media digging up an old story and pumping it.
So, it's already included in this forecast.
GM already has dibs on that site.
IMO there will definitely be a transition to a different chemistry for stable storage. It makes no sense to use expensive cells with characteristics good for automotive in a format that doesnt have requirements like energy density or certain charge/discharge curves. In fact, the requirements for stable storage are so different than those for automotive that I suspect we will see a novel chemistry emerge just for that. Or at least a version of sodium-ion with different characteristics from that used for automobiles. Tesla will still be ahead of other companies on the stable-storage market just because they have been building the rest of the systems for so long now.
Tack!
Thanks for the support!
Hello, i enjoyed your video / I think it will be even more complete if you elaborate your views on the demand
Awesome as always. What does the lithium supply thought to be found in the volcano change
Hi Chris! Thanks for the support.
The news about the volcano isn't really news. It's a well known reserve that's just getting explored further.
That is, it's already included in the forecast here - Thacker Pass is at the southern end of McDermitt Caldera. That's a mine run by Lithium Americas that's going live in 2026-2027.
Comprehensive, thorough, and very well done buddy. As a Patron living the #DadLife, I prefer these more bite sized videos.
Glad it's useful! 🤠
5:55. I am a little confused about how you place countries lithium production, since Australian mines supplied 43% of the worlds lithium in 2022, and are the largest single producer in the world. While very little refining is done in Australia at this point, there is strong interest in changing that.
See the last video of the series
How will the price of lithium change over time?
9:00 Now I have the tools to make my own stone tablets. Woo-hoo!!
LOL
This is wonderfully helpful! Did you also happen to analyze the lithium mining equipment manufacturer's to see if that could have any potential impact on the supply growth?
Thanks!
It shouldn't have any positive or negative impacts that would significantly impact what I've laid out here
It's funny how audio-only changes your perception of things. I was gettingbready to leave as this video was ending, and I heard Jordan thank his "exsubscribers". I had to chuckle at that. 😏
😂💯
How does the recent announcement of massive lithium deposits in Nevada affect the midterm forecast?
Wouldn't that need a decade to end in actual production?
See previous videos about lithium clay deposits. No one is currently producing from those sources at scale. Lots of promise, though.
That deposit is well known and it was just the media digging up old story to get some clicks
It will take around 15 years to develop
@@thelimitingfactor Thank you for your insight, and additional clarification.
Well done. Thank you. Electric cars are disrupting many established interests and it is not surprising that many things will slow it down. So, people will have to transition to thinking about Tesla producing 20M cars in 2035 instead of 2030.
Hi!!
How can I get these data ?
Depends on which data you mean.
The best way to keep up with this stuff is to subscribe to benchmark.
Not cheap, but if you're serious about tracking the data, they have it
Valeu!
🤜🤛
Battery deep dive details
I love that this drops the same day I hear about the world's largest lithium reserve found in America. It really shows there must be vast amounts of unfound lithium out there.
It's one of the most common elements. And we're literally just scratching the surface of the Earth... And that's just the surface that's not covered in water or ice. The modern search is just getting started. This is like going from when we found oil shooting out of the ground in the desert, and starting on the long path to shale oil and fracking.
Yup, covered in the last couple of videos.
Also: Note that's already covered by this forecast. It's old news that's getting re-hyped
Great video! My question is if other types of batteries could add to the chart? I would like to mention liquid metal batteries, compressed air batteries, and gravitational batteries for example. These types of batteries don't use lithium and sodium. Perhaps around 2030 they contribute significantly in the 7,6 TWatt that is needed. I hope somebody could help me with this.
I'll be covering those in my grid storage series 🤠
Liquid metal batteries, despite their marketing, won't be cost effective. Compressed air is useful. Outside of pumped hydro, gravitation batteries are dumb.
The place where capacity really needs to grow in the next 6 years is for sub-4 hour duration, so that'll be filled by lithium ion/sodium ion because it's suited to that use case
Does this demand forecast include meaningful demand from stationary energy storage systems in 2030? Rodney Hooper at RK Equity says that many analysts & pundits are underestimating demand from that segment. Thanks! Great job.
Yup! It does. 🤠
you should give out high school level battery chemistry kits for holiday gifts
Please do an analysis of where the electricity is coming from to charge all of these lithium batteries. Electricity may be the limiting factor.
Plenty of capacity (flatt the duck curve), it's a matter of grid infrastructure.
@@thelimitingfactor Yes, the electricity infrastructure is a major problem that will take time, big bucks and political will to solve. Electricity generation in California is also a major problem with annual rolling blackouts in the summer.
@@RandyLunnThe two things arent mutually exclusive. But also GENERATION isnt so much the issue. Cheaper batteries means utilities WILL be installing increased grid storage capacity. Even using a "dirty" grid, increased use of large battery arrays for load-balancing and off-peak storage means that there will be greater efficiency in the system and far reduced black/brown-outs. It also means that solar and wind projects wont have to be curtailed when they over generate at off-peak hours. Which is a serious problem now facing much of our installed capacity. Microgrids and local generation also means that California wouldnt have to use as many of those long-distance cross-country distribution lines that keep causing wildfires. The solutions exist. But there needs to pressure from the public to get utilities to make these investments. Or we need more interest in community/cooperative wind or solar projects so that small isolated communities can generate their own power and not have to worry about waiting for the utilities to catch up.
@@patreekotime4578 Thank you. It will be great when it gets here.
@@RandyLunnthe simple fix for this is rooftop solar and home batteries. If these were mandated, the infrastructure problem would be minimised to beefing up local networks to handle peak flows.
What happens to raw resources mining when battery recycling starts to pick up in scale? Is anyone doing any kind of projections for 2035 - 2040?
This forecast includes recycling.
Jordon, Elon says there are lithium rich clays in Nevada which can mined and the lithium depleted clay returned. I understand from your work this permitting will take years - right? Could the permitting be bypassed by initially using The Boring Company doing "utility" work to extract the clay? In this crazy idea once the permitting is in place then go back, dig up the rest of the materials while remove the tunnels and back fill with lithium depleted clay to restore the original contours.
Yep, covered in the last video.
No, the boring company wouldn't be useful. Just need off the shelf dumptrucks, etc
What about recycled Lithium ？
That's included
Who are the idiots that aren't including recycled material in their forecast?
Not this guy
It's interesting how everyone talks about electric cars, and that's fine, I like electric cars. But nobody talks about electric trains. In Europe and especially Russia, most train tracks are electrified
That's because it's a boring topic.
Na-Ion is the battery of choice...perfect for mass production, mass energy storage and mass usage........Lithium is going to be fazed out, its too dangerous, short life span and expensive.. Invest in Sodium Ion Energy Storage Cells....CATL is..
I'd disagree. This'll be covered in my next video
Fair enough...the reasoning is cost, safety , lifespan and volumetric size, but totally agree range/energy density is around half so Lithium has it place but only until sodium is 75% of the energy density@@thelimitingfactor
I am a sodium fan because of safety.
Lithium-metal batteries appear to be the only path to electrifying flight that makes any sense. It'll take tons of lithium to do that. If sodium-ion pans out like it sounds, it will be a perfect drop-in replacement for everywhere that LFP is currently in-use or being considered. In the world of LFP however, there are indications that it could get to similar energy densities as current high-nickel chemistries. If/when that happens I expect LFP to almost completely replace current high-nickel use cases. Since we dont expect to ever see sodium batteries approaching those energy densities, I think it is safe to assume that lithium batteries will always be an important part of the mix. But sodium is absolutely required to get us to stop buring fossil fuels for transport. And may also be the key to getting stable-storage adopted enmasse. There is no one chemistry to rule them all. The logical assumption is that batteries will become more and more industry-specific to meet those industry-specific demands.
@@patreekotime4578Don't forget Ambri liquid metal (high temperature) batteries for stationary, load levelling use. They are coming online as we speak and have an almost unlimited cycle life and reasonably good round trip efficiency, VERY well suited to renewable generation smoothing!
4th! :)
Thanks!
Thanks!
Thanks!
Thanks!
Thanks!
You're most welcome!
Thanks!
You're most welcome!