Why Postwar matters
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- Опубліковано 12 чер 2024
- The Postwar matters. In the bleakness and horrors of the war we are currently witnessing in Europe, it is important to remind ourselves that this war will also end. This matters. It is upon us who believe in a free and democratic Europe to support our ukrainian brothers and sisters in their striving for victory. BUT it is also upon us all to imagine a world after the war. Many of my videos since the brutal Russian invasion of 2022 have focuse heavily on what the world will be like after the war, and I have noticed criticisms directed at this approach of mine. I therefore wish to defend myself briefly and explain why the Postwar matters so much, not just to me, but also to you.
Postwar by Tony Judt: www.amazon.com/Postwar-Histor...
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You might be interested in this video too: • What even is Europe?
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The book I recommend for 2024. Postwar by Tony Judt: www.amazon.com/Postwar-History-Europe-Since-1945/dp/1441778225
The issue is that it’s really uncertain how it will end exactly. To many things are up in the air. So planning for a future that won’t be as optimistic…. It could turn into a Korea of sorts. Could be anything.
Yes. Yes I can. The hell do you mean the Cold War was stable. The institutions might not have changed but still so much fear and bad luck could have ended so much of humanity.
I am curious, as someone who is from former Yugoslavia, why you don't refer to this era as a "post-war". Sure, a simple gaze at it may appear as "oh its just some regional war", but I'd argue the Yugoslav Wars showed a very key problem with how Europe reacted to conflicts without the US guiding it and resulted in an ever growing dependence on the United States in regards to foreign policy and disputes within our continent.
I think a key example of this is the lack of European action up until Srebrenica went public, resulting in the United States finally going full force into the conflict. The narrative of Europe possibly "going its own way" may have ended far before February of 2022.
English isn't my first language, and I'm passing this through google translate so I apologize if this isn't clear or I may have misunderstood a point or two. I appreciate your content and vigor nonetheless.
Excellent book. When I was an undergraduate studying international relations, Judt was required reading in many IR and European history curricula.
No, Communism did NOT lose the peace and Liberalism certainly did NOT win the peace. Russia lost the peace by falling out with their biggest ally fellow Communist China. The Liberal West won the peace by cooperating with Communist China against Communist Russia. So, no. Red China won the war and the peace.
"A bad post-war agreement can lead right into the next conflict"
Truer words cannot be said enough
In other words, what Peaceniks don't realize they're actually advocating for.
Yep. It's the biggest contributor to why we had a second world war.
Israel Palestine moment
Oh hello WW2
Treaty of Versailles moment
Planning for the post-war is very important. If you don't think so, just look at what happen after the Iraq, Afghan and Lybian wars. If you are not ready for what comes after, then you are just creating a problem for the future.
None of those wars should have happened if not for NATO war machine and calls for democracy and peace as they ravage countries worldwide
This planning for the post-war sounds like planning for revenge war against Russia
Surprisingly many wars have no clearly defined goals or even inklin of an exit strategy when they start.
Always ask yourself when your governement sends people out to kill and die : have the powers that be told you for what concrete aim they do the killing, and under what conditions it will end? Its flabberghasting how often neither applies.
I dont think the US ever had something like that in the recent 50 years and wars.
Can you correct Irak into Iraq please and yeah I agree
Or take a look at Versailles or the treaty that was signed after the First Balkan war.
Why are there some people who don’t like when Kraut talks about the Post-War? It’s extremely vital to talk about because if we don’t then we’ll get another Treaty of Versailles.
And wee all know that this peac treaty just the fiul vohr the next war was PS sorry i vor bad Englisch im a German and still learning english
The treaty of versailles didnt go far enough clearly. The peace treaty after ww2 was far worse for the germans but it stopped them.
@@lordmiraak8991What do you even mean? The Treaty of Paris did not settle, acquit Germany's situation, Western powers and the Soviet Union could not reach a compromise. An armistice was all they got, which did not shove Germany into a decade-long economic depression, unlike how you think and state.
@@Tovalokodonc i mean that germany was able to get its stuff together for round 2 quickly after ww1, in ww2 there was no such posibility since germany literally stopped existing. The german people had it worse after ww2 then after ww1. After ww1 the german people had democracy for the first time. One of the most progressive states around at the time.
@@Tovalokodonc also if im not mistaken the treaty of paris wasnt a peace treaty for ww2 but was a treaty establishing the cooperation between western states
To say that liberal democracy defeated comunism without firing a single shot, seems to me like a bit of an overstatement.
Also seemed like a huge gloss over to claim the Post-War period after WWII didn’t irrevocably change with the end of the Cold War. Post 1989-1992 is its own Post-War period, with its own new consensus.
Kraut has a habit of those
korea vietnam and all the other proxy wars aswell as the soviet invasion of afganistan
It's called a metaphor, guys.
Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, Afghanistan… There were definitely shots involved.
Something I don't understand is when people don't understand we can have multiple conversations at the same time. Talking about post-war doesn't negate conversations about the current war
Is whataboutism. They don't want to talk about post-war. Especially pro-russians, who don't have a realistic plan, which they know.
This is one of the most generally accurate statements you can make about humans' chronic struggle to solve problems. Thank you for bringing it into focus.
I would say it's even necessary.
Discussing post-war scenarios helps us understand why we can't let Russia get away with this shit.
The consequences of a post-war scenario where Russia controls the Black Sea for example. People should consider that, if they defend Ukraine should let Crimea go (they shouldn't).
Oh, I just live in a country where everyone is making plans for what will happen when the current "president" is gone for over 20 years. (and soon he will hold "elections" for another 6 years, where he will be able to elect himself) During this time, this "president" has managed to destroy the entire opposition, shut everyone's mouths and start a war with a neighboring country. In general, the problem with building such scenarios is that many people start looking for an alternative reality in them, which will never happen if the current problems are not solved.
Post-war agreements that were made _during_ the war:
- Atlantic Charter (August 1941) US and UK set post-war goals, including self-determination for peoples, free trade, and disarmament.
- Moscow Conference (October 1943) US, UK, and USSR agreed to recognize each other's sovereignty after the war and create the UN.
- Tehran Conference (November 1943) Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin agreed to post-war occupation of Germany.
- Bretton Woods Conference (July 1944) Established the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
- Dumbarton Oaks Conference (August-October 1944) Groundwork for the United Nations, including the composition and voting structure of the Security Council.
literally wrote this down as I'm studying for my political science degree thank u !!
Yes.
Was yalta post war?
@ethanwatt-dz3xq these people are only concerned with Europe.
self determination for peoples didnt really work out now, did it lol
Kraut, when you talk about interbellum Poland, dont go easy on Józef Beck.
He was not a good Foreign Minister.
Even his last name is spelled in English/German instead of Polish for some reason, booo, boooo!
Yeah, Poles often forget about this but their foreign policy towards Germany was just as appeasement-like as Britain's or France's.
Had they stood up for Czechoslovakia instead of using the Munich agreement to snatch some territory for themselves, much could have been different.
Poland was pro-intervention into Germany in the early 30s before Munich, but France and others were unwilling to engage in this. So no, they were not 'just as appeasement-like as Britain or France,' but I agree the decision to re-annex Cziesyn was foolish. Separately, I do not believe "Poles often forget" this, but rather certain people like to lecture as if Poles do to demean or denigrate them.@@filipmihalovic2822
I raise you Edvard Beneš.
@@filipmihalovic2822At that time, Poland occupied the territories conquered by force by Czechoslovakia during the Polish-Bolshevik war. Territories which, according to the plebiscites and the League of Nations were Polish. I'm not making excuses for anyone here. I'm just emphasizing that it's not that simple.
I'd argue that it wasn't post war agreements after WW2 that left us with 70 years of relative peace, but that the fear of nuclear weapons is what made large scale war too dangerous.
This is exactly the reason why warfare between developed nations turned into proxy wars in "disputed" territory. The nations who are capable of nuclear war aren't going to engage with each other on the fields. Instead, they loan their weapons and training to desperate factions in civil wars, hoping their chicken wins the fight. The modern world runs off of the Spanish Civil War's experience. It's better to fight your enemy with foreign troops than your own people, lest it is your own testing out new toys on some peasant guerillas
Hmm I think that this is a case of several things can be true at once. Fear of Nuclear weapons definitely played a large part, but I do not think it was the only large player. Especially in the early post-ww2 period.
yeah
The greatest post-war effect in Ukraine will depend on how much it integrates into the European Union, it could be a fundamental pillar or what ends up defining its failure, we will see what happens
Aka it could become Poland, or it could become Hungary.
Ukraine won't be integrated into the EU for decades even after the war ends. Corrupt with billions in debt is not a good look. NATO definitely as an emergency measure, to stop further Russian agression
@@Jaxck77 im from Ukraine and I can honestly say we are much worse than Hungary. We are fighting against none other than ruzzia and our government keeps stealing money instead of giving the maximum for the army. This is just unbelievable. We dont want to fight for this. And Ukraine was always like this. And now I doubt EU will exist to the time when Ukraine will be ready to join it
@@Jaxck77Both are the same, is that the joke?
Or Ukraine will never join the EU at all and Russia will not go for any other war, at least not in foreseeable future.
I fully agree Kraut. The Post war is so important, to much so to be left to “after x side has won”. Lest we forget the numerous conferences that the allies held before Germany and Japan’s surrender.
Totally agree on this - and frankly surprised you'd be criticised! When the Cold War ended, policy makers in the US (and other countries I suspect) were unprepared for the post-Soviet world that emerged. That failure of planning, and failure of imagination, has played a part in the situation we have today. It's impossible to predict exactly what will happen after the war, but there's no excuse for being surprised, and certainly no harm in avoiding surprise through public discourse.
@@cya1noand then we hear from the Russian troll bot, lol.
@@cya1no You Russians are really hung up on feeling "humiliated", aren't you? It's not real.
@@garyk4013 with a mindset like that, you're going to repeat the history and suffer the consequences.
@@kormannn1 what mindset are you referring to?
@@garyk4013 Mindset of the simpleton.
I’ve spent most of this war as a US Army veteran of a very different sort of era of wars discussing day to day survival with my good friend in Ukraine, but this argument was Ciceronian in its elegance.
I don’t believe he’ll be able to think too much about the peace as he struggles to survive on the ground being attacked by the Russians daily, but this has certainly changed the degree of thought I will be giving the sustainability of the peace itself for the sake of the rest of Eastern Europe.
Quite strongly disagree that the west "won against the SU without firing a single shot" Kraut.
I would agree with you because that was the first thought I had, but then I started to think about the fact that the Vietnam and Korean wars didn't really have any vital part of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union dissolved because of how poorly it performed on internal politics, not because it wasn't a formidable opponent in war. So while there were shots fired in the name of ending the Soviet Union, I don't think they had any real part in ending the Soviet Union. (And also It is a figure of speech and not the main point of his video, but I can see where your coming from)
@@eeee3029 while I see your point as well, the resources that proxy wars drained from the SU are significant and definitely played a role. Mujaheddin in Afghanistan, mostly.
@@WombatOfDisaster These wars certainly drained the Soviet unions resources, however I still believe that wether these wars happened or not would only have had the effect of speeding up the dissolution, instead of being a cause of it. Basically, the wars helped to increase the speed with which the Soviet Union dissolved, and were not a driving force of that dissolution. At least to my knowledge, I don't pretend to be an expert on Soviet era politics.
@@eeee3029 it just didn't become money spent on the planned social policies, improving living situations, i guess
Alongside this, the US and USSR continuously had sword measuring contests that would eventually bankrupt the USSR.
Without firing a single shot?
Vietnam, Cambodia, Korea, Central America, South America, a lot of Africa
Better phrasing would’ve been “without direct conflict”
This vid is about Europe so I could give the benefit of the doubt that the statement applies to Europe only
Kraut should probably indicate in the title when his videos are off-the-cuff opinion pieces rather than researched and higher quality essays. That comment and the Lenin tangent made me double take which channel I was on.
We have to prepare for the post war or else Lenin will sneak into your country and join an ongoing anti-war, anti-imperial revolution might not be the takeaway he was aiming for.
@@MisterFoxton You guys should be legit stupid to assume watchers did not understand Kraut's point (that the smartest of the commies are being pragmatic and seeking their time as they did in WW1), otherwise you would not try to sell your own distorted message in his mouth with such a blatant insolence.
He was talkin about Eastern Europe. Berlin Wall fell without any invasion or warfare.
I don’t really see how those conflicts directly had anything to do with the collapse of the USSR
"GIVE WAR A CHANCE" - Sundowner
You are going to need to make a longer version of this explaining what your suggestion is for a Post War Agreement
Yes I agree
You don’t need to defend yourself on this Kraut, thinking about the future and planning ahead is always important, especially if it’s as something big as the war in Ukraine. Being prepared for that eventuality will help everyone both today and when the war ends.
Yeah no fuck that, a good idea like this can stand up to scrutiny, it doesn’t need to accepted as a platitude
Plans heavily depend on outcome of the war however.
It liked it that there was a defense to watch. I agree with it,...
...except the anti-commie stuff, mostly because of the tone it didnt add much substance to anything, but there was spewing a lot of ideological vile there.
The post war after WWII was not as stable as you claim it to be. The breakup of Yugoslavia, the Arab-Israeli wars and the korean war are just some of the several major conflicts during the period you described. Also Russia does not have monopoly on imperialism. The US has been creating conflicts and destabilising nations all over the world for its own gain. Those things are talked about in the very book you cited at the end of the video.
He was referring to stability in Europe after the war specifically in the context of Germany, not sure where it is claimed Russia has "monopoly" on imperialism
Post war europe
Thank you for raising this very important issue of a post-war order in Europe. Your channel is one of the most thought-provoking I know. Keep up the good work!
Yeah I don't see Ukraine winning
I'm sure russia will get around to it..eventually.
Did the Ukrainian conflict not start in 2014 in Crimea/Krim? Also, despite the stability and peace in western Europe, there were many conflict globally involving the NATO and also Russia (i.e. Middle East, Russian Chechen war). Thus, there being a Post-War state in Europe seems not quite true, only that the wars that did happen were not fought on European soil.
Very interesting discourse, however the argument relies on the fact that Russia wants to move on to another war because they "talked about it openly", I have never heard of that. Did I miss an episode ? I can't find what he is refering about on google, could someone tell me ?
You just check internal russian news, obviously in russian.
Just general rule when dealing with russia, go and see what they talk about among themselves, not what they want to show you.
The West did not "win the peace without firing a single shot." Korea, Vietnam, Yugoslavia, do I have to continue?
Pretty much none of those things have anything to do with the Soviet collapse, so...yes because you didn't make your point
@@samwill7259 Yes, these were proxy wars fought by the USA, USSR and their respective allies. Just because the Cold War didn't turn hot doesn't mean these proxy wars are irrelevant.
I really wouldn't count Yugoslavia, the USSR was dead at that point for 4 years and Yugoslavia was well... that's why NATO walked in. Yugoslavia also wasn't really part of the Cold War considering they were Non-aligned anyway despite being a communist state.
@@aircraft2His focus seems to be lore on the divide of Western and Eastern Europe. Because as soon as the Eastern Bloc and the Soviet Union collapsed, most of thsoe nations turned into liberal democracies similsr to their neighboring states in Western Europe. The reunification of Germany resulted into a democratic state, similar to Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, etc. Why? They lived to tell that full communism and socialism that was forced upon them never worked out for them and abandoned it.
Heck those can be applied to Korea, Yugoslavia and Vietnam too.
South Korea is literally outdoing North Korea. If not for the nukes of the latter, the reunification of Korea would have already happened a long time ago
Most current states of the former Yugoslavia are now members of NATO and some of them are members of the EU.
Vietnam? Well, they saw full communism and socialism didnt exactly work out so they adopted bits of free market economics and normalized relations with the US again.
@@memecliparchives2254"if not for the nukes of the latter"
Don't forget their biggest backer, who could have easily went "Il-Sung, that was the bed you made. Go lie in it." but chose to prop up a shambling corpse of a regime out of an outdated view of buffer states way beyond the point where it would have been logical.
I often have to explain to people that one of the big factors on why Imperial Japan took such an aggressive stance leading up to WWII was because of their treatment at the end of WWI.
Post-war agreements are so very important when looking towards the long-term.
I don't believe the post-WWII agreement was that good. Britain and France declared war because of their commitments to Poland, but having defeated one of the threats to Eastern Europe, they fed Eastern Europe to another. 1945-1991 were the times of peace and prosperity for Western Europe while being the times of slavery for Eastern Europe
True. Western Europe just paid the price by feeding other countries to USSR.
This is hilarious because the West had actual colonies while Eastern Europe had no underclass to make cheap garbage that the West had.
Bullshit
They declared war due to a rabbid hatred of Germany, had it been due to commitments to Poland (false promises and kindly waiting for most of the German army to finish up and return to the west) else they would've responded to the Soviet invasion of Poland in kind
And what were the alternatives? Operation Unthinkable or what? Soviet's weren't going to relinquish control of Eastern Europe.
@@m1nekji165
Ally the schnatzees against the Soviets as they begged from the 1930s?
Would've found out about those camps earlier, exhausted them
Plenty of alternatives at the time friend, just because we decided to throw our lot in with a genocidal warmonger over another doesn't mean it was the right choice
Neither does a century of unbelievable propaganda but that's neither here nor there
Even if Post-War debates and arguments don’t stop wars from happening, they continually give us more and more insight as to why and how specific wars began. That we might be able to prevent as many conflicts from happening in the future as possible. Reminds me of the Imperial Japan: The Fall Of Democracy video. By the way when are you going to do the next part of that series? We’ve been waiting five years.
"such a stable political order that it lasted until 2021."
Ehhhh... The main reasons for this apparent stability are:
1. European colonial powers began to collapse. Trying to maintain control of a collapsing colonial empire or navigate a post-colonial world order is not as likely to cause war as imperial expansion and imbalance of power caused by it.
2. Europe was divided between larger powers, namely, what would become NATO and the Warsaw Pact. Infighting, rebellion, or fighting the other side without orders would not be tolerated in this environment.
3. Nuclear weapons increase the chance that conflict is all or nothing. We ended up with nothing.
4. If it were not the case, most people in Europe or the US would simply be dead or never born, and perhaps 60-96% of the population of these regions would not be there to ask the question of what went wrong. Every timeline where billions of Europeans and North Americans are reflecting on their own history is one where the European postwar situation prevented a massive nuclear exchange.
Honestly the issue that arises from a post-war Europe is the fact that realistically no one outside of Ukraine can realistically decide how post-war Russia will be structured, and even Ukraine can't really do much.
What if Russia will be a pro-european? Will they be neutral? revanchist?
Will Russia plunge in a second russian civil war? Or will have the same end of the Soviet Union?
No one has really any idea it will happend.
Sure, we have Duntsova and Navalny, but isn't much more probable people like Shoigu or a Prigozhin-2.0 will raise up after Putin?
Also consider Ukraine's objectives to achieve peace: what they want is to ensure that Russia will not be a problem in the long term, if not even cancel the concept of Russia as a nation. Which is in stark contrast to what western europeans want, which is pretty much just a regime change.
You could think that it may just pragmatism in the face of the war, but a russian collapse would also be a jackpot of Ukraine.
Is it right for both parties to interfiere? Are our peace plans at odds with Ukraine?
Simply said, there are too much variables that we can't realistically plan anything about Russia, our best hopes is to plan fo Europe, which is much more stable and predictable.
can't agree more. It is also indeed true that the main interest of Ukraine is vastly different from the main interest of Europe or the US. I'm not particularly sure why nobody seems to understand that.
Demographically, both of these countries are already dead. This war, no matter its outcome, will only intensify that. So there is no "long term" for these countries.
If there is a Russian collapse... who will get to keep the thousands of nuclear missiles across the country...?
the vitriol on both sides at a grass roots will be so great that rapprochement will be neigh impossible for generations.
Especially if ukraine wins, Russian pride and Western triumphalism would irreconcilable and guarantee far right Russian candidates win elections in Russia after Putin is gone.
How was the peace won with the Axis powers in WW2? It took foreign occupation and a program of re-radicalization imposed on them by their occupiers. Russia having the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, would sooner end all life on earth before they let that happen to them.
How tf is Ukraine going to do anything with Russia itself? It's laughable even hearing that Ukraine could anything about concept of Russian nation. Those matters are entirely within Russia to decide and within its many peoples.
The west defeated communism without firing a single shot *IN EUROPE*. That's very important to remember in the context of Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Afghanistan and even many places in Latin America.
Thank you Kraut for raising such an important issue
I would love to see you do a video on why imperial Japan is seen in a more sympathetic light than Nazi Germnay. I have noticed online of people comparing the two as if they are the same “evil.” I really like your video on “Imperal japan: The Fall of Democracy” and I would like to see more videos about that. I also saw a video on the Golden Age of Japanese Cinema that was fascinating. It showed the historical context of that time period and portrayed Japan in a sympathetic light. I love Japan, but Should post war japan be seen this way?
I think one of the biggest problems for westerners imagining a post war Europe is they think it looks like a pre war Europe. They can’t understand yet that it VERY MUCH does not. It’s like the pandemic where so many institutions are trying to return to the pre war status quo but they have entirely papered over how the world changed during the pandemic, and not just because of the pandemic.
Example: it’s gone barely noticed that in America, 2022 was the year that the majority of baby boomers finally retired. That’s America’s largest demographic generation is now retired. But in the face of what is a chronic labor shortage so many businesses are still trying to get workers to return to offices. They need to be casting a nationwide net for talent and the only way they can get that is remote work but despite the efficacy of remote work they’ve even commissioned studies pretending the productivity growth is the pandemic era did not happen.
They want the status quo they had. But the conditions that made that status quo possible no longer exist.
Same to people who are struggling to imagine a post war Europe. Sweden and Finland are now in NATO and Russian natural gas is GONE. German chemical companies have been dismantling their operations in Germany and shipping them to the American Gulf Coast. Europe will not look the way it did prior to the war, irregardless of how the war ends.
Those of us who aren’t fighting need to do those who are fighting the service of having a world for them to come back to.
MOM GET IN HERE THERES A NEW KRAUT GEOPOLITICS VIDEO !
Another reason I don't like the concepts of "guilt" and "revenge". The postwar talks after World War I had a slight chance to treat Germany and Austria-Hungary as equals when they engaged in peace talks, but the allied nations were fervently against this. "Let's build a peaceful Europe," was curb stomped into "Germany must pay for what they did to us." Even if anger is justified, it has no place at peace talks. Are you there to talk peace or are you there to wave your justice boner around? You can only pick one.
when he say " without a single shot " i knew its a waste of time 3:16
I can absolutely understand that people are upset when we are already talking about the post-war period.
I have the feeling that many people and governments are already acting as if the invasion of Ukraine is already over
as if it's a lost cause or as if it doesn't matter anymore
and yeah, maybe one of the reasons for the hesitant support is that nobody knows what to do after the war
the usual "I'm taking care of the problem just enough so that it doesn't escalate, but solving it is up to my successor"
Just keep in mind the profit interests of multinational corporations (rubbing their hands already) as we prognosticate about the post-war era. We're talking as if they aren't part of the conversation. Not smart.
@@juniorjames7076good point but what do we do about that?
Very well-formulated video. I was skeptical about the post-war topic, but this has definitely made me understand the importance of talking about it!
Great one mate and I hope that people with power will take notice!
Lenin: 'Chaos is a ladder'
100% agree to all points. Post-war (peace) agreement is as important as the war itself. Winning both = long lasting peace.
I'm going to be honest, the beginning was my opinion... "It's too early to think about of what comes next when the war isn't even over yet".
However, I can also leave my biases aside, and say that people like you are very much needed to brainstorm the ideas of longer lasting peace... My mind is hellbent on Russia, and that's because it's next door of me, or rather us Finns. I can fully admit that you're thought process on the war exceeds mine in terms of long term thinking for how we acquire and restore the peace for generations to come.
Thank you for the insightful videos, you have been great source of temper when it comes to cooling down and looking at the picture at broad.
kraut my beloved
When video about Brazil?
When no one is talking about what comes after, someone has to. These are things that need to be talked about and discussed- not shut down.
I would definitely be interested in your thoughts on the works of Johan Galtung, particularly how they might be applied to understanding what a positive peace for Ukraine would be.
"Where is the horse and the rider? Where is the horn that was blowing? They have passed like rain on the mountain, like wind in the meadow. The days have gone down in the West behind the hills into shadow. How did it come to this?"
Theoden's words resonate so much now, knowing that some people in Europe are willing to give Putin everything he wants. Europe needs to rise and prepare for all eventualities!
Not first time when some people in Europe give everything he wants to some fascist and then cry in their turn as they were left for dessert.
The reason why I'm against the EU is that it's no longer about co-operation but of integration. The idea of the EU as a trading block is a great idea, however the current EU is closer to a United States of Europe which is not an antidote to spheres of influence, it IS a sphere of influence. The biggest thing that turned EU into another quasi-Empire was the introduction of the Euro which basically crippled economies that worked better with a weaker currency (i.e. countries with high tourism and net exporters) and only really benefited Germany and France.
To win the peace, Europe must co-operate in ways that respect the different realities of sovereign nations. Europe should go back to nation state currencies and foster stronger economic ties through trade rather than regulation. The EU needs no involvement for things like Defence because that's what NATO is for. That is how you become an antidote to spheres influence instead of becoming one yourself.
I think people are saying that right now, we don't even know how the war might end - so planning and discussing a post-war with no end in sight is like putting the cart before the horse. That's what the criticisms about you are what I believe. When things are clear, we should definitely plan post-war. People were hoighty toity claiming TOTAL UKRAINIAN VICTORY but the situation changed and all those plans and discussions became wasted. For you, as an armchair analyst, maybe it's OK for you at your leisure. But for the politicians with limited timetables to make decisions and options - they need to fit that somewhere neatly in their schedule when they can.
Happy New-year Kraut, and I'll read the book!
Happy new year Kraut. Wishing for a lasting week in Ukraine.
All of the failed peace agreements you cited have one thing in common - they all depended on a balance of power within Europe. The group of equals within Europe have proven it can't regulate peaceful co-existence without outside powers forcing peace. No matter how well planned and written the peace settlement is, Europe will fall back into slap fighting and flinging pooh at each other. Don't delude yourself that you have a plan to maintain lasting peace in Europe.
it will have to when the threat of external forces will become more important than internal ego-disputes, which will happen, given the demographic and natality trends.
afd
"far-right"
ok im done with this channel.
don't complain about the seating order. The more conservative and nationalistic you are the further right you sit in the Bundestag. That's just how that convention works.
Words are useful because they mean specific things. An Alt Right person might not want to call themselves that but if they believe in those things the average alt right person believes they should be called alt right. That's just being honest.
@@speckbacon9881 some of us actually like our country and heritage. unfortunately y ou lil snotts are removing our voice. almost as if y ou are the very thing y ou accuse us of being.
Both of the projects you’re working on now made my youtube-addicted noggin start salivating
I love how you speak of the agreements we will need to make as if any of us are actually gonna make any of them.
"defeated communism without firing a single shot" are you insane?
I love kraut videos but those types of statements are what make me disagree with him sometimes. The Cold War was won by a combination of diplomacy, economic strength, proxy wars in Africa and Central Asia, a superhuman effort to make increasingly sophisticated weapons and having the good fortune that the Soviet leadership was increasingly incompetent.
Actually "communism" was so kind as to defeat itself.
Should have worded it better, but yeah communism did collapse in Central and Eastern Europe almost without a direct war with Western Europe.
The Central and Eastern European states just stopped being communist states by the 90s.
There were no wars in europe between the eastern and western bloc. This is historically quite unprecedented. Do you see now what he meant?
@@Silver_Prussiansorry... what?!
Without discussion about 'post-war' , how are we supposed to end it?
With overwhelming victory. Period.
Govermments and people are acting like if there was no ziggers in Ukraine already or some bs. That lack of commitment will cost NATO, the US and the EU a lot. Anything worse than a minor victory means, for example, that when Xi launches an invasion of Taiwan nobody will give two fucks about the gringos because it's commitment to help ANY ally is next to zero.
What Ukraine needs is TZD and nothing less.
Thank you for your thoughs and recomended book.
It is, as always, very inspiring.
Keep up good work!
I’m not convinced anyone would ever consider this a “post-war” era following this conflict. It’s a regional conflict. It’s not like we considered the 2000s to be a “post-war” era following the fall of Yugoslavia.
“A regional conflict”. Lmao. Bringing examples like Yougoslavia is only shows your lack of understanding what’s going on. Whenever you’re located, for your own well being, it’s better to not be too far behind events that are happening. Because at some point you’re going to catch up. And it might be very stressful at that exact moment.
But I hope neither you or anyone else is going to experience that.
I'm really not sure it's true to say that the post-war peace after WWII lasted until 2021 (I assume you mean 2022). Does this not ignore the Yugoslav wars? Do internal conflicts not count even when their casualties are over 10x that of Ukraine?
Today in UA-nazi war even the military casualties alone are at least over 5x of all Yugoslav wars combined. Add to that yet-unknown numbers of civilians, and all the prisoners/captives currently in ruski camps - many of those will not see freedom again.
I don’t understand why people are complaining about postwar, for me treaties and postwar diplomacy is a fascinating part of history
People are complaining because we still don't know how this war will end. In early 2022, everything pointed to Russia losing. After 2023, everything points to Russia winning a war of attrition - certainly keeping the land they stole.
These videos about "what will we do once Ukraine finishes curbstompting Russia?" seem extremely out of touch and delusional when you take into account that the outcome of this war is still very much undecided.
@@cinatiropel the outcome of the war directly depends on Western support of war efforts in Ukraine. It's not a friendly match you can watch on you TV. Kraut said what will happen if russia takes over Ukraine and I as Ukrainian agree with him. If the West continues applying half meaures, arguing about military supplies and playing their voting games by suspending finantial support because it doesn't have a vision of post war Europe with Ukraine and without today's russia Ukraine absolutely WILL fall. And then Western people will have to face not far-reaching discussions about what to do in a postwar world but the continuation of war with russia that trained itself in Ukraine, accured a lot of new logistical routes and drafted new cannon fodder on newly occupied vast territories.
@@olgatrotsenko2153 The West already has been supporting Ukraine. It's failing badly.
Kraut, talking about the next series of steps before we arrive at the task of solving the peace needs to happen. It's like shopping for groceries. Do you leave the house when you ONLY need eggs?
No you write it down and start a shopping list. Once the list is of sufficient size or you run out of a desired resource then you leave for the market.
This exercise is us writing the shopping list for peace. It will change once we get into the "store " or "post war"
Until then let's keep adding to the shopping list of winning the peace and communicating our needs and insecurities as simple people who happen to live in separate sovereign nations.
Me personally, the peace will not be won until we arm the peoples of these regimes with information and support. We all also need to face the reality that the Axis of the 21st century is gearing up its ability to manufacture for war as much of Europe and the US of A are still sleeping at the wheel.
The fact that there are no free people in Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and thier allies means the cycle of "wrong thought" will continue much like how the Hitler youth were corrupted by propaganda.
The people of these nations are emotionally and mentally ill. Because of the environment thier governments force them to live within.
Be well Krout, The only awkward conversation is one that doesn't take place.
-Craig
Thanks for the book, that topic is my favorite of all your videos!
People online talk much about how socialism has failed, but what we are seeing now in the world is how neo-liberalism has failed. Socialism is surging among gen z and milennials in the so called 'west' and feel like the system has failed them and their future prospects. The Soviet Union collapsing was not the ultimate testament to an end of Socialism, it was merely the end of the Soviet branch of it.
Socialism in the west? Which countries?
Soviets were not really socialism but a totalitarian empire that calls itself socialist. Just like the "democratic republic" of North Korea.
Nothing really bad in true socialism, except that it never happened to work on practice.
Fighting a war without thinking about what comes next is like using three starting pitchers in a single ballgame.
yugoslavia was never part of SSSR, your map is wrong
Imagine thinking that Russia would attack a NATO country after stucking in Ukraine for 2 years
If won't as long it believes that the USA would strike back. Take the US Army out of equation and you will see that NATO is seriously lacking in both personnel and a willingness to take a fight. The second-strongest army in NATO is Turkish. But Turkey is an opportunistic autocracy and can not be relied upon. This is why the addition of Sweden and Finland is a huge boon to NATO. These people are armed and ready to defend Europe, unlike the Germans and the French. When the war breaks out, it would be the Scandinavians, the Poles, the Baltic States and the UK who would stand up to the challenge. The others would run away and talk themselves out.
Great video. I really think we should talk more about what to do after the war because the west showed that not having a plan really backfires. Looking at what happend in the balkans and afghanistan, we really should think about the "and then" more.
Post war after ww2 fuelled proxy wars all over the globe, brought both nations on the edge of nuclear war, caused countless deaths, soldiers killed on both sides where the superpowers were belligerent but somehow the post war after WW2 was most peaceful. 😂😂😂😂😂
Ngl if you make a history of us forign policy youll forever be my favorite youtuber, especially since there arent really any other really good videos on the topic that are on your level of quality
Both East and West fired a lot of shots during the Cold War.
These shots weren't directly fired at eachother, but instead at the allies and associates of each respective power. Millions of lives were lost in the wars fought and/or supported by the US and USSR. The fates of entire countries changed dramatically in that period.
Vietnam, Korea and Afghanistan are only the tip of the iceberg. Civil wars, revolutions, military coups, you name it. Conflicts supported and enabled by the superpowers to advance their position in the Cold War. In Latin America, it was mostly the US. Whereas in Africa, there was significant Soviet influence.
The US alone spent trillions of dollars fighting in these conflicts.
Shots were fired. They were just fired indirectly.
I'd argue that it is the existence of nuclear weapons that "kept the peace" between major powers post war, there was no peace in places like the middle east Africa Sth America and east Asia.
You had convinced me with all those other videos. Talking about the post-war is important.
There are little postwar peace wins in history but many war gains in history without lasting peace. Very important video.
What happened to the video about Netherlands?
Having a good, well thought out plan for the post war is what prevents the next war
prevent the next war? naive people.
Just ordered Post War on Audible -looking forward to it.
Thankyou for the vid
Tony Judt’s book is introduced to me when I took a university course on Postwar European history, and I can positively say it’s absolutely worth the read( and the price).
The post war agreements between nations has caused recent wars such as the Israeli Palestinian conflict. This has been a re accruing issue that is causing more problems and suffering towards the people of those nation states
The post war arc is bussin
I have not thought about it this way. These Videos need more attention!
"when trade does not cross borders, armies will".
Kraut, your essays inspire me to make my own, more than any other youtuber on this site, excluding Brain4Breakfast, PhilosophyTube, Ravignon, and a few select others I won't list for the sake of the point of this comment.
Do you have any advice for starting a channel based around qualitative essays on aspects of (Geo-)Politics? I chose my degree at uni in large part because of your video on China; "Trump's Biggest Failure" and ever since then you've essentially been my biggest inspiration. Please, if you can, lend me some tips for how to get my head in the right gear to begin to follow this passion.
It is very important to think about what comes after a war ends - no matter how long a conflict lasts, there will usually be an end at some point and it is better to be prepared for that end. Failure to prepare is preparing for failure.
Both the allies and the axis were talking about a post war world by 1943. It is a necessary discussion. Don't wait for it to end and then try to decide on a plan.
Like any topic, you are bound to get criticism, and that criticism can or may be valid in the topics you discuss. However anyone saying that it’s ghoulish to talk about the future once conflict is over is deluding themselves. You’re doing a very thankless job by discussing what frameworks and agreements we as a world should take part in to create a better future for everyone, and that’s incredibly important
The postwar political system after the Second World War led to the Cold War which ended in 1991, which means that there was another postwar afterwards which led to the Ukraine war
I think it's never too soon to plan what you're going to do with your victory; indeed that sort of planning can shape the strategies used to attain victory, so as to best position yourself to meet those post-war goals. I'm baffled that some would think otherwise.
That was an excellent autapology; I'm convinced. You show a seemingly unusual foresight.
"without firing a single shot" are you sure about that
apparently Korea and Vietnam and all the other wars were all just a collective hallucination
Kraut does not understand communism or cold war alot beyond 'imperial realism,' 'spheres of influence' and 'criptocratic disfunctional commie societies.'
There are other sources for that. This video, however, is not about communism and cold war, so i just dont mind it all that much. It is however indeed a grave corner cutting simplifcition.
@@jaka2274 remember someone calling his channel liberal pragerU lol
@@dyst0pi465 I had not heard of this pragerU before. I looked it up. You ruined my day. haha thanks
He meant in Europe, not a single shot was fired for Berlin wall to fall.
3:15 First seeing how USA, UK is falling a part I wouldn't praise the neo-liberal systems...
Second in the Cold War there were many proxy wars like Korea, Vietnam, Afganistan. So there were many shotts fired!
Very convincing presentation. Thank you for your thoughtful contribution
Thanks for the book recommendation, it's in the bucket list 📚
if kraut is a bird parrot, then he just pooped all over his own feet. that rant was wack
In what way exactly? Do elaborate.
this video has aged like milk
3:15 maybe Austria didn't bother to fire a single shot but we fought hard.
Hey Kraut, how do you feel about Slavoj Zisjek (sorry I butchered his name…)? I’d really like to know what perspectives are most valuable to you outside your own.
Love your content. Never stop doing what you’re doing ❤
I find it hard to believe that people criticized your previous videos about post war! You did something rare these days: you brought “new” information for a lot of people who, like me, struggle to understand the tiny strategic details that make the difference in the long term.
So, whatever these folks criticized, I want rather thank you for taking your time, intelligence and expertise and share it with us.
Your points and analysis are very well presented and present an excellent starting point for anyone who wants to have serious conversations about European future.
Thank you very much!
Slava Ukraini
you shouldn't assume that russia will attack the czech republic, romania and poland after they win ukraine. these countries are in NATO and benefit from its collective defense so it is unlikely that russia attacks them
If NATO fails to defend Ukraine then Russia will have proven, at least to itself, that NATO is unable to defend its own democratic worldview and as such will become no obstacle to further expansion. The scary part is that if they win in Ukraine they're probably right.
@@samwill7259nato is a pact around a feeble promise that can imply whatever you want it to. so nato should speak with actions whether it is weak or strong
@@NeoZondix NATO is an ideological organization. If it fails to defend western style liberal democracy than it ceases to exist.
With a Donald Trump presidency and his proposal to pull the US out of NATO, Putin could use the resulting chaos to launch an attack. The irony is that Trumps butthurt over NATO is mainly over European countries 'not paying their way' whereas the first to be attacked will be the ones who have always kept military spending above the agreed threshold.
But then we couldn't fearmonger about a puppet state being invaded after trying to break free under false promises they'd get aid