What are current Russian military options in Ukraine?
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- Опубліковано 12 кві 2022
- This video, another in our series of video covering various aspects of the war in Ukraine, talks about the military possibilities Russian forces might try to take on the front line in eastern Ukraine. What sort of forces might they have, and what sort of resistance might Ukraine offer? Watch the video to find out.
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It's so weird seeing a Binkov video end without the usual "While Binkov may talk about hypothetical war, real peace is what brings everyone together."
Thanks to the psychopath Putin.
And have reason
Been doing that since the war started
Glen Chen.Binkov is no longer talking about a Hypothetical war, its very much happening real time and plenty unfortunate
Sad, isn’t it.?
"And remember, while Binkov may talk about real war, only hypothetical peace can bring us all together."
Nice one.
"And remember, while Binkov may talk about hypothetical peace, only a real war can tear us all apart."
Damn true xD
I really hate this war. Every single shot fired, every single bridge destroyed, ever single person killed, every single building levelled is all for the cause of absolutely nothing. An utterly destructive, pointless waste of life.
Maybe after this war Ukraine's Bloody History fighting Russia can finally come to an end.
Just like the American involvement in the world wars.
@@jasonbuford496 how does ending the third Reich and the holocaust have the same meaning as putin having a big ego
Thats the point, if nothing else.
It will take Ukraine a century or more to rebuild . Plus it owes the west for those weapons. Ukraine certainly wont be thinking about anymore war with Russia in its future
@@alejandropelayo9288 Look at it this way, if America hadn't entered World War One, it's highly unlikely that there would ever have been a Third Reich or a Holocaust.
Can we just take a minute to realize how crazy it is that Russia has struggled so terribly with logistics? Literally Russia is right next to Ukraine and they still can't keep their logistics up to par.
@@PROLIFIC_TRAVELSI'm pretty sure you don't even know what logistics are, bud. Nice try.
@@PROLIFIC_TRAVELS sure buddy, nice losses. Make sure to get more copium
especially when u compare it to the iraq war, the US literally beeing on the other side of the world with no supply issues
@@PROLIFIC_TRAVELS source: trust me bro
@@PROLIFIC_TRAVELSthe Russian military is weak and incompetent as fuck. I had dealings with them in Kosovo when they showed up uninvited. The Russian troops had awful equipment from what I saw . Zero moral. They were often drunk and their leaders were corrupt. The Russian officers would trade for American boots by giving us brand new Russian uniforms that were meant for their troops and then the Russian officers would then sell the us army boots to their soldiers for a profit. Pathetic. We the Nato forces in Kosovo used to laugh at the Russians.
I used to enjoy Binkov’s videos because they were informative and entertaining. Part of the appeal was that all these matchups were purely hypothetical and that large scale war in the 21st century was unthinkable. I still look forward to these videos, with no small sense of guilt because of my previous enthusiasm, but now I view them from a much different perspective.
i feel you on the later points
"Large scale war was unthinkable..." due to 70 years of peace mostly achieved by economic warfare(people still can starve due to that shit, it's just warfare by another name) and threats of mass world destruction(MAD)? How does someone like you get so naive?
One thing to consider is that the spring thaw and rain is going to turn the open fields of eastern Ukraine into mud. Making it significantly more difficult to properly use tanks. Same shit happened in WW2 in Ukraine.
It's already happening. So much for the sweeping land battles when everything is stuck in mud.
And just as importantly making it even more impassable for logistics vehicles (of which they likely don't have enough of).
So God decided to side with the right country yet again
Our 1991 Gulf War is largely forgotten, but Russia's invasion really helps show how awesome Operation DS was. The US invaded a nation literally on the other side of the world with 700,000 troops where they previously had no real logistic hubs, and maintained an extremely fast offensive with extremely low losses alongside coalition forces. Meanwhile, Russia can't even get basic supplies to units only 50 miles away from their border.
You seem to forget it took the US a month and a half to take over a city 3x smaller than Mariupol in a month and a half, while employing shock and awe tactics. Its taken the Russians the same time to capture a city 3x greater than what the US did. If that isn't screaming success then you are truly lost.
True about the logistic and the US was a lot better organized but you cant compare Iraq with ukraine, Irraq is mostly desert. And once the US started to shoot they surrendered in large numbers. Ukraine get help from the NATO, they are real proud fighters that fight till they die and Ukraine is a total different terrain, and a lot more populated.
The US has based it's entire doctrine and organization on Expeditionary type warfare, as despite the fact that America has fought wars overseas for well over 100 years now
Russia, on the other hand, has typically been a mostly defensive force, as the vastness of the country allows for a land for time trade, wearing down opponents
Also, during much of the Cold War, the USSR incorporated tactical nuclear weapons into it's doctrine, along with mass armor waves, and it's likely that (as has been the case with the US for a long long time), the Russian Army top brass is full of old guard generals who still employ the Soviet doctrine (minus nukes), and are failing to adapt to the fact that the Russian Army has come a long way since then.
Russia has never really been an "offensive country" (contrary to years of Red Scare "Russia taking over the world" propaganda), whereas America has always fought on the otherside of the world and used it's technological and numerical advantages in open warfare as a crutch, evidenced by it's ability to curbstomp Iraq, but inability to defeat the Taliban or Viet Cong
@@SlavGod47 the Viet Kong ceased to be a fighting force in 1969 following the Tet Offensive where they were quite soundly defeated in fighting around Saigon. You seem to have them confused with the NVA, who didn't invade South Vietnam until 2 years after US forces had withdrawn.
@@cyberwar4111 says the guy who didn't know the NVA was a thing.
You are also assuming that the Russian Army stops being totally incompetent
They learned some basic things. Before, vehichels in russian convoys where chunked one next to another, now they hold distance about 15-20 meters. Also they stoped going ahead before they set up airdefence because of ukrainian drones. Russian army is less trained and it is worse than some western army, but russians are learning some things quickly, some basic things, but there is some improvement,
He has already talked about Russia's unwillingness to fight in previous videos.
I miss the "Binkov may talk about hypothetical wars" sign off
Me too
Thanks for the great new video!
Rusky botters drank a big cup of coffee before hitting the comment section here
russian bots and western brainwashed zombies, pick your side
Nothing we have seen from Russia so far indicates they are capable of this scenario.
Like what exactly?
I tend to differ. Even with all their obvious struggling, they were able to control (and still do) a huge chunk of Ukranian territory. They have shown they are perfectly capable of doing that. What they have been proven unable so far, is to take large cities. In Donbass region they will not fight a urban, asymetrical war, they will fight a conventional war in the open field, with few cities and little cover, where taking advantage of tanks, aviation and specially artillery is much easier.
Slovakia has pledged to become Ukraine's repair shop for heavy vehicles & the United States has just voted to restore the WW2 Lend Lease Program. Now Ukraine must spare men for training in US/ NATO non-Warsaw pact equipment. It will bolster both their quality and quantity of newer military vehicles & air defenses.
The USA will need 2 weeks for the House to come back from holidays before it becomes law
@@chrisb9143 thanks for the update. I doubt the answer will be no.
@@williamleadbetter9686 I agree it probably won’t be a no but it should be
@@chrisb9143 that IF the house goes for it and not give Biden the finger (which is a possibility) as anyone who votes for a "lend lease" act while ignoring the domestic issues is getting voted out this mid term. So unless Biden starts ACTUALLY helping the US and not destroy it (incompetence goes only so far, at this point it is beyond a doubt malice) with anti-constitutional executive orders and bureaucratic policie changes. So far as I see, the Former VP has little chance of passing it, IF the hypothetical Russian offensive doesn't take place. If it does and goes to Russias way, then the act is already effectively dead.
Maybe Germany gets its act together and sends its Leo1 and Marder to Ukraine (currently in storage, ready in about a couple of weeks according to Rheinmetall). Czechs are already sending tanks (t72).
Certainly appreciate skipping the normal outro for these videos.
he should permanently remove that dumb outro from his videos
*The terrain in the east isn't what most envision* - it isn't Kansas or Nebraska - if you check Google Maps satellite, the fields are all surrounded with several rows of densely planted trees, providing cover and obstacles, and rains will likely make traversing fields difficult. The area is also crisscrossed with tree lined streams, creeks and rivers.
This is similar to the territory to the east of Kiev, where Ukraine was able to push back the Russian offensive prior to the pullout, and Russia had difficulty establishing and protecting supply routes.
Good point, though in the east of Kyiv the Russian supply lines ran hundreds of miles through Ukranian territory and alongside a lot of bypassed cities which acted as bases for raiding of the Russian supply lines, the forces that reached the east side of Kyiv were cronicly starved of supplies for a long time. Ukraine will need to infiltrate into the Russian rear to do the same now, but it looks like they are doing so. Forces pushing eastward from Kharkiv will start to impinge on the roads running from Belgorad down to Izyum. Also it looks like Ukraine sent special forces teams to take out a rail bridge in Russia itself, again trying to cut the supplyline coming south from Belgorod.
every village is an ambush site
@@kennethferland5579 The front east of Kiev wasn't hundreds of miles from the Russia border, the shorter path through the friendly territory of Belarus was available, Russia controlled the cities along their supply route, their supply lines if they achieved their objectives in the southeast would be longer, and it wouldn't be rational to believe that Russia has developed and can implement large scale supply logistics in the span of a few weeks.
A 2nd bonus in striking targets inside Russia is defending them and securing the Russian side of the border pulls away Russian forces from elsewhere.
Well, Binkov is Russian, so draw conclusions from that
@@MrRandomSuperhero _Well,_ I haven't seen a source that doesn't mischaracterize the territory or compare it to previous Ukraine battlefields, _so draw conclusions from that_
And Sweden and Finland are now close to joining NATO, both technologically advanced militaries. Well played Vladimir.
They were already as good as members of NATO already. Formal membership would just be making it official. So nothing new there.
@@view1st
They should join in May, to make it more humiliating for Putler.
@@view1st No, they were not 'as good as members of NATO already'. Much of Finland and Sweden's populous were previously opposed to ratified NATO membership, however now it has became a hotly debated issue. Finland and Sweden were also not subject to Article 5, the main principle of NATO as an organisation which protects members from invasion.
@@doogus8728 they practice what is called benevolent neutrality. Officially they are neutral but in reality they support the US and its organisation NATO. They have always been opposed to Russia, the Soviet Union, communism and have whenever possible supported the EU and the United States.
@@view1st Complete bollocks. If that was the case, then why didn't they join at the height of the cold war?
Average Russian bot: Russia did not retreat! We just lost thousands of soldiers and billions of dollars of military equipment in the biggest feint in history. Hah, we fooled you!
You forgot about beeing isolated for decades, both economically and culturally and beeing sent to XIX century with standard of living.
>Thousands of soldiers
According to?
@@redaerf2b414 according to every news outlet and statistical analysis done on the matter, including Kremlin spokesperson and diplomat Dimitri Peskov who was cited saying that Russia has sustained considerable casualties in an interview.
@@AngryCheezburger303 16k causulties, yikes that's like 6k deaths
@@redaerf2b414 according to pro Ukraine propaganda agencies. 🤷♂️
Im just here to laugh at the Russians in the comments. Glorious victory comrades, day 44 of 3 day operation going as planned.
year 3 of the 15 days to slow the spread. checkmate westoid.
Weld a bedframe to your tank roof. All will be fine.
Russia can turn Maidan Square into a dirty road again any time it wants Russia has been following a plan and its being very cautious to avoid civilian casualties.
@kira the former where confirmed military targets.
The Bucha case is disputed.
Russia has inflicted very small number of civilian casualties by Russian standerds.
@@command_unit7792 they had a plan. It failed. Now they are trying the plan b to save face. And they didn't plan to save civilians, Sputnik published automatically the annexion of Ukraine and ethnic cleansing (they called it purging) thinking that they would take kiev. When they learned that their troops got roasted they deleted the article and pretended it was a hack. And their article proved to be exactly what they tried to do. Russians are the New nazis
It's just like in that joke from month ago (just multiply the numbers):
"According to Putin the special military operation is really a conflict btw Russia and NATO about World dominance.
Whats the situation now? Russia has lost 15000 troops, 6 generals, 500 tanks, 3 ships, 100 planes and 1000 trucks.
NATO hasn't arrived yet."
Well, in Russia people wouldn't accept the war against Ukrainians, that's why they have to portray it as a proxy war vs NATO. Poland would wipe Russian military. I won't even talk to how superior NATO is vs Russia. I have travelled Russia, I was born in Soviet Union and hell, I know mentality of Russian people. Russia is just a number, not quality. The same was during WW2, same is today. Like Stalin said, Russian people are just statistics.
This feels like it could be on a WWI/II slogan on a poster
@@ubemcgrebbiii1923 could be, I'm not that old :D
Yeap, 50 generals, 100 admirals, and all Black sea fleet)
Sourse: trust me dude
You just forgot those 150+ billion $ spent/trashed on Ukraine in the last 8 years
Cost of T90 = $4.5 Million, T80 = $3 Million and T72 = $0.5 - 1.2 Million. Meanwhile cost of Javelin = $0.18 Million and NLAW = $0.03 Million. Accountants in the Pentagon must be laughing their heads off. This is proving to be one of the most cost effective wars that NATO has ever fought and not a single NATO soldier has been killed or injured. The Pentagon must be hoping this conflict grinds on for years to come.
T90=0.45 Million dollars for Russia. Remember, things are only more expensive in US.
Why do Westerners think that their Saint Javelin is the one that helped Ukraine to destoy Russian tanks?? I have only seen one video of Javelin attack so far, most of confirmed kills are with Stugna P, Ukranian ATGM
That´s why US bought Ukraine´s corrupt Government.
That's only assuming the news isn't lying and it's not harder to get kills then you think
Good luck with floating immigrants into your country, I’m sure that won’t complicate things.
Blinkov's: Sweden today announced it would be pursuing NATO membership and Finland as its historical ally will likely join as well. Can we get a reboot of the NATO vs. Russia standoff considering not only NATO's likely new membership and its much longer border with Russian but also its new BIG spender in Germany, etc.?
Germany might need a little bit of time to re arm, Might be difficult to assess their overall impact before that build up truly gets into action but I agree
From the geopolitical perspective, Russia really dropped the ball by invading Ukraine to keep it from joining NATO. Not only did it convince Europe to boost its defense spending but now NATO might get two new members in the near future. Russia did this to itself.
Not true!!
@@bongo351 Yes we shall kick those teutonic sons of guns into finally kicking in the NATO share. It will be tough but we will do it. Edit: I love Germans. :)
@@googleyoutubechannel8554 Hitler thought the same way. Got his ass handed to him.
An offensive running South or SW from Izyum would be very vulnerable to counterattack. From the pocket to the east and from the new forces brought down from Kiev to the west. If the Russians once again commit their best troops as a spearhead they might themselves be cut off from supply.
I also believe that even a Donbas encirclement of Ukrainian forces is unlikely to cause their destruction. These are the toughest units Ukraine fields. If their situation becomes untenable, they will simply drive to the west, thereby evacuating the pocket and destroying the Russians forming that side of the pocket.
Nothing I've seen so far leads me to believe the Russian Army can sustain a drive through open country and achieve an encirclement. Especially with the units available to them after the debacle at Kiev.
True, but if the Ukrainian units in Donbass were to be encircled, how would they break out and with what forces do they to accomplish that?
Any such pincer attack would be highly risky. By this point only a wide front attack policy seems practicable. But how, in numerical inferiority? It would require half a million men, not 150 thousands or so. And good old infantry should open the way, not armor, which proved extremely vulnerable.
@@stefanodadamo6809 well, the southeast of Ukraine is pretty flat, suitable for tank warfare. A pincer move is the most logical thing to do, but since it is absolutely no surprise due to 100% satellite coverage, it will be very hard to pull off for the Russians. Anyway, the next attack could be decisive for both sides. Let’s hope that Ukraine continues to kick asses and take names.
@@robberbarron7602 Mobile units can break out of encirclement. So they use the forces in the pocket and head west.
You have to keep in mind that a very large proportion of Russian soliders arent willing to die in that shithole, plus they have a lot less experience than their ukrainian counterparts. A counter offensive by Ukraine would absolutely melt through the Russian offense and probably cause heavy damage on the Russian side. I dunno what idiot in Russia thinks this is a good idea. Probably someone who lied to Putin again as usual.
But at the moment it doesnt even seem like they are able to encircle the Ukrainian army.
I've been a follower since you started. It is wonderful and much appreciated to see you dealing with the current realities in Ukraine, and the - to most - surprising lack of depth in Russian military ability, across all the forces, ground, naval and air. As a military historian, I would be interested in seeing you do a video on why the same cities important in the current conflict are mirrored by the German advance in WWII. Although the names are now Ukrainian and not Russian, the same cities vital in tactical and minor strategic combat are the ones fought over between the Soviets and the Wehrmacht. (The "Cherson Pocket", for instance...) I'll have to get one of your mugs soon!
I expected the Russians to draw a line to the Dnieper through Poltava. That gives them two river systems to protect their gains and control traffic, and Poltava was a famous victory for Peter the Great in his battle against another Westerner, Charles the XII. Such a plan also gives the Russians a small enough population for effective pacification. Instead, they went berserk way North. I think Field Marshall Smirnoff must have formulated their actual plan.
Russian military ability is far from lacking. They are a fighting force of 190 thousand going up against 600 thousand Ukrainians. To even begin to think that they would just 'rush in' and risk being surrounded is ridiculous. Of course they are playing this out slowly, and that starts with the encirclement of the Donbas army, with some 100 thousand Ukrainian men, the best trained out of the Ukes. This is going to be a very slow war, and until the odds are more in their favour they are going to continue to play it safe and put pressure on Kiev in order to keep the units stationed there from reinforcing the Donbas army. For someone who claims to be a military historian, you lack many sources and seem to be quite gullible. I suggest you actually look at the footage being posted by the Russians so that you can get a second opinion, like any so called 'military historian' should be doing. If anything this showcases the brilliance of the Russian military, and according to analysts like Scott Ritter, it will go down as one of the most impressive offensives in modern history. Would you also argue that operation desert storm was a failure? Because that took the Americans almost a year to complete, even while utilizing shock and awe tactics, which the Russians have restrained themselves from doing. Electricity is working, the water is running, and the internet is working. I can tell you with 110% certainty that none of those would still be on had this been an American offensive.
There are so many bots in the comments. It was a good video.
Russia is fighting an info war as well. Though, this isn't new.
They were before
Russia has a great army on paper but that’s it . Poorly trained commanders and lack of allowing field officers to make decisions is what’s causing Russia to lose
Not to mention corruption so bad you wouldn't believe it.
Then why is ukraine losing?
Yepper, I agree. That's what separates them from most modern western powers. They lack ability to be flexible and make tactical decisions in the moment. Not to mention the lack of communication between their branches of military. A large number of their top command are more party members than they are soldiers.
@@CosmicValkyrie but it’s not losing. Too early to count Russia out, but the fact that Ukraine still exists is a victory by itself.
@@CosmicValkyrie ah yeah that's why Russia Purposely pulled out of Northern Ukraine, like if Germans failed to capture Moscow in Putin's logic the Germans aren't losing, it's just a "strategic retreat"
Russian copium in the comments is hilarious
Rusaboos on suicide watch
It’s sad how deluded they are. 😅
still less embarrassing than US-Afghanistan war
@@rodm8113 cope moar
@@rodm8113 US lost 2000 KIA in more than 20 years, not 15,000 in a month
The Russians expected that advancing on Kyiv would cause the government to collapse. When that didn’t happen, their presence in the north became a waste. The cities and woodlands of the region also give an advantage to the defender that they don’t have in the open plains of the south. So for the purpose of destroying Ukrainian combat power, the Russians are better off using their armor in the south.
russians are de-militarizing themselves , they started the war with 2800 active tanks and lost 700 . another year of fighting they could be out of tanks which they only can produce around 150 a year
Do think? Planned?
It's still covered in hills for large portions meaning javelin ambush squads would still ruin a t90 crews day.
"Those that plan to win a short, quick war usually end up losing a long one." -- Clauswitz
It's a cinch, comrade. We'll be home by E̶a̶s̶t̶e̶r̶ M̶a̶y̶ ̶D̶a̶y̶ Christmas!
The real question is just how offensively capable Russia actually is offensively. The first few days of offensive warfare we saw have happened partly because Ukraine was taken by surprise, but also because the Ukrainian army fell back into more defensible positions. Once their army reorganized, the front effectively stopped moving. With Ukraine this time fully expecting these attacks (like, cmon, anyone who has a basic understanding of warfare could see that pincer attack coming from miles away), they're probably doing a lot of rearguard action such as digging out defensive positions along their likely routes of advance to maybe not blunt their attack, but at least stall it long enough to pull as many troops as possible out of there. But even if Russia somehow manages to encircle that entire section of the front and cut it off completely, that at best secures them the east of the Dneper river, which barely does anything to offset the security problems they already caused themselves (such as Finland and Sweden considering joining Nato and Germany rearming, not to mention the fact that the renown of the unbeatable russian army is gone)
The fact that russia even with surprise only took two cities so far, Kherson and Melitopol shows that they are in really bad shape. And those cities were taken in the first 2 days without resistance. The Battle groups from Kyiv Region are almost useless, they lost 30 % of manpower and maybe even more gear. You can not just fill this up and Russia does not even have the manpower for this. It is not cold war where they had 2 million people ready, they just don't have it. Their contract soldiers who serve for 3 years are around 250k, 200k are already in Ukraine and bad trained conscripts won't really help, and they are legaly not allowed to be send abroad. In terms of logistics, have you seen any gear to move palets? In fact they don't have pallets at all, they move everything with hands, like it were 1940. And all their vehicles in those warhouses were not maintained and most of them are trash. I honestly can't see how Russia wants to achieve any of those goals. That is also why they just destroy civilian areas, because thats the most they can do right now.
@@3komma141592653 This tbh. Hard to say in how bad of a shape the troops from the north really are, but even if you did a Wehrmacht and recombined the remnants into more powerful units, they just simply lack the numbers. Offensive warfare ALWAYS comes with high losses. This is especially true for maneuver warfare, especially when the enemy expects you to do it and prepared accordingly. Not to mention that maneuver warfare is, above all, logistics warfare, and i think everyone remembers what happened last time the russians attempted to supply a fast advance across a long distance.
@@Chrischi3TutorialLPs Not to mention this entire time sanctions are continuously bleeding the russian economy of resources and money. A lot of the factories that produced the more fine-tuned components of their war machine (microchip factories, radars, smart munitions etc.) have shut down which means the more the precision strike operations by the Ukrainians using switchblade loitering munitions and TB2 drones will only become more crippling to the backbone of the Russian offensive.
Haha... I find this comment section hilarious, especially when people who don't understand how war works talk about how well or how badly this war is going. It took the US almost a whole year to beat a bunch of camel riding sandal wearing ninjas with AKs in Iraq, which is similar to Ukraine in size, and much much flatter. It also took them a month and a half to capture a city 3x smaller than Mariupol, The Russians have in a practical sense done that 3x faster than the Americans have. What I'm trying to say is that MSM is not a reliable source of gathering information on ground troop movements, logistics and other factors in warfare. And by no means am I saying that the Russian army is unbeatable, after all it was Stalin that said 'History has proven time and time again that there are no invincible armies'. But please stop talking about this hogwash, it takes a lot of time to encircle 60-100 thousand people, especially when the army you have deployed is only around 150-200k. From the Russian perspective they have the ability to play this out slowly now, the Ukes have no more petrol, or at least not enough to make any meaningful difference, and they can slowly achieve their goals. With speed comes risk, and that risk is losing equipment and men, of which the Russians do not have a lot of, so obviously they're going to play this out slowly, just like the US did in Iraq. You must also bear in mind that the Donbas army is the best trained in Ukraine, the rest of those men sitting in Kiev are reserves and conscripts, or foreign mercs.
@@centurionoomae1543 I think you're forgetting the fact the same thing happened when Russia invaded Afghanistan. It was flat, supplied by American missiles like the stingers and the soviet union went bankrupt. Sound Familiar?
Also to note, compare the initial bombardment of Ukraine with Operation Desert Storm.
The former was heavily inaccurate, didn't take out Ukrainian intelligence/communication systems and a lot of the missiles ended up straight up killing civilians with the notorious image of a Russian missile slamming into an apartment complex. Desert storm was surgical, nearly crippled the Iraqi defense/communication entirely and did something the Russians today still fail to do even now: GROUND THE ENEMY AIR FORCE.
You're claiming superiority with thinking that no one knows what they're talking about sincerely I think you're downright wrong.
Russia has learned nothing from neither Afghanistan nor Chechnya while Ukraine took as many lessons from 2014 as the US did from Vietnam. They're outdated, funded by greedy oligarchs and stopped being a global superpower ever since Putin came to power.
keep coping.
I don't think Russia will be able to make any big encirclements.
Remember, the big problem Russia ran into at the start of the conflict is that their trucking capability places a hard limit on how far they can advance from a supply dump to I think it was 15 miles? Not more than 20 at least.
So to make an encirclement Russia has to have areas on the flanks secure enough to establish those bases and then the gap has to be 30-40 miles wide (+-their weapon ranges).
This is 1: obvious and 2: much slower than the Ukranians can retreat.
So with mobile warfare mostly out of the picture this will become attrition warfare and the victor of that goes to the side with the most morale, manpower, and economic reserves. And as long as the west is willing to suport Ukraine that is not to Russia's advantage and frankly without western support Ukraine would still make finishing this campaign painful for Russia.
Granted, attrition warfare means that Ukraine will be in ruins when this is all over no matter how it ends but eh, they have to suvive as a nation first before they can worry about that.
Russians had problems with logistics in the start of war, at now RU don't have problems with logistics
@@arty5876 I admit that I don't follow the conflict all that closely but unless Russia has managed to magic up several thousand more trucks that cap more or less still goes.
Although I suppose that they could move some forces to the rear to free up more trucks.
Logistics! Good point!
@@arty5876 «Russia had problems with logistics at the beginning when they had all the advantages and before they had any major losses, but now after a month and a half of a war, after losing close to 20k soldiers and thousands of vehicles, and after beating beaten and stopped pretty much everywhere they don’t have problems with logistics anymore”
Yeah right
@@SquattingSamurai You will be having a ride awakening soon, keep watching your fantasy source.
Binkov keeping analysis real instead of the hysterical media
The really bad thing for the Russian atm is that they are begun to rely on cevillian trucks for supply task. They cannot drive offroad like the millitary trucks.
I really can't see how they are going to supply all these troops in the east without these trucks. The offensive will most likely stop really quickly if they do not solve this issue. Then they can have 10000 tanks and so on but if they can't bring them fuel ammo or food it dose not matter.
The Russian have already shown that they are not cable of suppling thier troops on all fronts so putting more forces in the same arear were they already suffer supply issues is kind of strange.
At the beginning of this offensive Russia's 130ish battalion tactical groups had on average one company of 10 tanks each. That's about 1300 tanks. Verified numbers lost which have been photographed are approaching 500, unverified claims add another 250 on top of that. Now some of the crews will have survived (mainly those that ran away) but these aren't M1's or Merkava's, they aren't built with crew survival in mind, if the tank gets hit crew members die. So that means that half of Russia's original tanks are out of the battle (and a high proportion of their crews), and they need those tanks to spearhead any forward movement.
I find it difficult to expect the Russian's having much success in advancing in the east of Ukraine unless they pound the ground with artillery and airpower for weeks first and I'm really not sure that they have the ammunition supplies to do that.
I give the Russian army in Ukraine till the end of May at best before they are retreating back to their start lines everywhere, just because they have no armour or infantry left to keep the artillery and AA units safe.
In your story it's as if the Ukrainians have lost nothing. Ever try to look into their losses?
i don't want to sound evil but i am also wondering if part of nato doesn't want this to be over very fast. Because as long as ukraine doesn't fall at the end and the longer this goes, the more depleted and weakened RU will become. So if this lasts a year or more at the current intensity, (and provided that ukraine moral and supply can be kept up), RU will pretty much has most of their tanks get destroyed. Which would render nato with much more decisive edge once RU has to finally give up
@@mingming9604 This can't last for a year at current intensity. Ukraine will be depleted of money, food, and soldiers before then.
@@MikeBrown-go1pc It would still be negligible even if you took it into account. Ukraine can replace its lost vehicles and weapons with western aid while russia is tied down with sanctions. China can at best give small support without western sanctions being imposed on them too. So yes, it's fair to assume
@@Jake-rs9nq maybe not but the point is that the longer this stretches out, the more weakened RU will be. And obviously that does come at heavy ukraine expense also.
If you know the Russians are going east, the ukranians knew weeks ago with western intel, I wouldn't not be surprised if they sent half the Uniformed Ukranian army defending Kyiv east to shadow Russian movements. Leaving behind enough TDF and well dug in uniformed forces in Kyiv to deal with any surprise advances.
Thanks for the great video, always good to get a tactical run down with one of your videos in the morning!
Always good to see a sober, neutral analysis of what's going on strategically. A breath of fresh air in a sea of emotionally manipulative propaganda.
Its hard to say how Russian is Binkov.
Yeap
You say that with the refusal to fight or to tolerate any further war as if the Russians were free to express their opinion. Mark my words, soon they'll have Gulags again.
Yeah dude. I am writing to you from the Gulag. I do not have access to the Internet and a computer, so my letter is printed with a nail on the bark of a tree. I was surrounded by bears, they soon woke up from their winter sleep and are therefore very hungry. I will probably live another 2-3 minutes and they will eat me. Reprint my letter and send it to the free Western media, tell me that there are no people left in the cities of Russia, everyone was sent to the Gulag or to Ukraine. I can no longer write, the evil guards came, they kicked the bears away with the kicks of their boots, and now they will send me to work in a uranium mine. GOODBYE!!
Gotta say it’s a impressive fight back from Ukraine tho
It's more that Russia is overrated and more of a regional power if it weren't for nukes
@@yourstruly4817 Also that;)
@@yourstruly4817 and the mental strength of the Ukrainians
@@yourstruly4817 that's not true. They messed up. But, They still have good military and equipment.
Also, the Ukrainians put up a hell of a fight.
@@yayayayya4731 the planes are litteraly falling from the skies without having been hit
I don't call that good equipment
All countries that have Russian weapons are doing just about anything to get rid of them
Good analysis! 👏👏👏
The lack of "all this talk about hypothetical war ..." Really hit home.
ooof
Donbas is currently a mirror image of the Battle of Kursk (1943). If the expected Russian offensive to encircle the JFO fails, Russia will have an exhausted army wide open to counter-attack.
I dunno what idiot thinks this is a good idea. The Russian army is heavily demoralized and a lot of them arent willing to die in Ukraine. I think this will go really badly if there is a Ukrainian counterattack and I predict that the Ukrainians will be able to cut through the russian encirclement. Let alone the lack of experience on the Russian side. Also how do they save their back from the possible counterattack. Theyd already need thousands of soldiers to secure their encirclement from behind. Do they have these troops? I assume Putin is being lied to again and the Russian generals are set up for another failure.
Russians know that. They know their history very well.
And Kyiv was something like battle of Moscow. Mariupol is Stalingrad
@@scaras323 - they don’t seem to remember it at all. Afghanistan. The first Chechen wars. The Crimean war (in the 19th century). Russia was badly lead and suffered due to poor planning, inflexible command, bad logistics, and poor discipline - in all of them. The Soviets only beat Germany because of equipment from the US and NKVD troops killing anyone who retreated. Russia has a great track record of only have the very worst people as leaders.
@@NapoleonGelignite >Afganistan
Russians technically won. When they left, pro-soviet government was stable enough to fight for itself and outlasted soviet union. If gorbachov wasnt cucold asshole we might already have forgotten about afgan-islamists.
Scroll down to see Russians trying to cope
Russia cannot replaced experienced troops with callups. One needs exp. troops when doing offensive ops.
Truth.
Garrison troops, reservists, and raw recruits cannot fill the boots of well trained young professional soldiers in their prime. Russia is facing a serious problem. This war was a major miscalculation.
@@maxkronader5225 Constantly talk about the losses of Russia. But only in Mariupol, Ukraine lost 20k fighters.
@@TheAlexRastr
No, they're down to less than 2500 from 14000.
More than 1000 ukrainian marines surrendered yesterday and Azov made a salty ex-gf video about it.
@@TheAlexRastr at the start of the battle Ukraine had about 4k and Russia had 14k troops. All these Russians say Ukraine has lost 4 to 10 times the number of Ukrainian forces had in any given battle. The positives have been exaggerated and negatives played down by both sides in the war. The battle for Mariupol isn’t even over yet.
Russia still has generals left for Putin to send to the front, to be shot like the others. Maybe when Putin runs out of generals, he can go to Ukraine himself and try to sort out his flagging army.
Goodness, the comments here are awful.
"successful retreat" 😂😂😂😂😂
Inspirational!!
@@asterion3291, I think he would have described it as a “brilliant strategic withdrawal” if he was on Vlad’s payroll.
@@asterion3291 I have watched his videos for years, he really drank the Russian Kool-Aid. For instance saying that Russia can afford losses to their weapon systems. They are already scraping the barrel.
Russia withdrew in the north without taking any losses during the retreatment in order to deploy the same troops somewhere else, where they could be more effective
Ever read about the Korean War? Vietnam? Afghanistan? America has had it's share of failures, it's just part of war.
Option: they could all go home, I think everyone would like that
Go home and liberate their home republics from the oppression of Russia, you mean
I'm sure the US troops that were in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Yemen etc would agree.
Russia can't allow possibly NATO alligned Ukraine with nuclear weapon and risk on the pro russian population on dombass. War is unpopular and terrible but they think it's the only way
option: the ukrainians could stop attacking civilians in donbass.
@@nemanja162 Considering the reported numbers of civilian causalities for the last years (below 20), it has happened already. But what about the attacks on pro Ukrainian civilians in that regions? Reports of torture are legion. Not to mention Crimea, where again the culture of the Crimea Tatars is destroyed.
This just shows that the world has been much better off with Pax Americana, the period where the US has been the most powerful nation in the world. Imagine if China or Russia had been the most powerful nation in the world. The world would be a lot more violent and liberal democracies would be much weaker and less prominent on the world stage
It's true that the American hegemony is likely more benign than the alternatives (or than previous superpowers), but there is a reason why it's so hated in some parts of the world. The lesson of Russia's illegal war in Ukraine shouldn't be that because Russia and China are worse, all of America's own wars are justified. Rather, it should be a learning experience on how ruinous military adventurism can be, both for the invader and the invaded.
Yea, just like america lost in korea, vietnam, lost 20 years after fighting small terrorists(taliban). Nice superpower USA is!
@@user-fd4il6pi9i Learn some history dude.
He didn't say, only true peace will bring us together.
Its a fake Binkov !
Am I the only one that's going to state the fact that one of the main problems Russia has fighting Ukraine is that Russia's fighting doctrine or style hasn't really changed in the last 25-35 years? Ukraine was once a fully funded and Russian trained military with many who likely served in Russian militaries back during the cold war. So, basically what I'm trying to say is that the Russians are fighting themselves. Not much that they're doing now that Ukrainian forces aren't somewhat...or even intimately familiar with. So when Russia fakes, Ukraine calls it. When Russia shifts, so do they.
Lol 25 to 35 years? Try 50 plus they do the same thing they did since WW2 which is just throw as many men out there, and overwhelm the enemy with firepower without regard for their own comrades lives, add in horrible logistics and poor communication and this current Russian Army ain’t no different than their World war 2 counterpart just with way better technology and other slight differences. I believe this is why in the event of an actual conventional war Russia would get absolutely slaughtered by the much better trained US military and really even any first world major military
Was "once". It has been trained by UK, USA, Lithuanian and other officers and soldiers for last 8 years, highly modernizing it and making it not ruSSian anymore.
We've had some stories from our officers that trained ukrainian soldiers about them. Good soldiers, learn quickly, older ones are stubborn to re-learn things but new ones are excellent at learning western doctrine and ways.
ты не понимаешь то, что это не война, а гражданская война между русскими. войска россии попытались наскоком занять территории где население более 50% симпатизирующие россии. поэтому шли колоннами без входа в города, чтобы уменьшить гибель мирных людей, т.к. считают их своими. тоже самое происходило в крыму 2014 года
@@JohnWick-qr4yc ты знаешь соотношение потерь германии и ссср во второй мировой войне , чтоб утверждать такой бред?
@@tellder1 that is the point, 'trained by UK, US...', get it
They should start paying these russian bots in sugar cubes... probably more worth while than paying in RUB
Didnt ruble recover?
@@karlyo6937 Yeah back to prewar levels but thats due to alot of measures by the state which will definitely chafe industries, businesses, and the economy in general so i think its temporary
Not to mention its still forbidden for ordinary russian to exchange RUB for any foreign currency so they have to do it in the back alleys for less than what its actually worth compared to foreign currency
In my opinion, its a very precarious artificial stabilization where youd be able to get more on the black market for a cube of sugar than its equivalent amount worth of RUB
True .
I liked when he said;
"After Russia successful retreat from Kyiv "
Good grief.
Retreat hell, we're advancing to the rear!
Tactical withdrawal that achieved its goal - to tie down the bulk of Ukropistan's reserve while the Ukrops in Donbas are destroyed.
If the Russian army was as effective as its bots in this channel, the war would be over. Comment section is full of them.
They're not bots, they're low life scum, *using war as the basis to troll for entertainment,* with so many other options available. *Use YTs new block function* - it appears to take out their associated accounts as well, you won't see most of their comments, they won't see most of yours. By the time you block 25, almost all of their comments will disappear.
Shows how little you know then does it not!
Why do you thinl that? Coz the media told you it would last 2 weeks? Ukraine is a country of 40mil people and has been armed by the west since 2014. Mariupol will fall within a few months. Took the coalition 10 months to take Mosul.
"THE RUSSIAN ARMY IS THE BEST IN THE WORLD AND IS UNSTOPPABLE, UKRAINE WILL FALL IN MERE HOURS WE SWEAR!"
This is some real 2+2=5 shit, but I imagine 1984 is banned in Russia because it hits too close to home.
@@serbomatic5682 whole Irak was taken in 2 months with less than 200 dead, buddy
You don't take into account that those forces on the Kiev Frontline are exhausted, to a certain extent. They are not robots that you can fix in 1 week and send off to another battle.
same goes for both sides tho
@@DiegoALexis2079 yes but Ukraine has over 600k defenders. Russia doesn't even have 1/3 of that. Ukraine can send troops that aren't diminished.
@@user-ov5nd1fb7s and they’re fighting for their homeland so it adds some fuel to the fire while Russian soldiers aren’t fighting with any conviction this helps Ukraine a lot but for how long is the question
Ukraine has 40 million defenders, so to speak, but exhausted in the front line, limited to defending and unable to attack. Attackers always make easy targets, and Russia owns the sky, therefore Ukraine cannot have large numbers of troops attacking or they would be stopped on the ground and annihilated in air strikes. It will not be easy even if Ukraine dominates in numbers of infantry
@@DiegoALexis2079 Yeah but no Ukrainian units have taken catastrophic losses, especially in the north. Most Ukrainian losses were in the Donbas region so many of the units being sent there from the north are mostly undamaged. On the other hands the Russians took some of their heaviest loses in those region and the units they're redeploying are basically completely combat ineffective. At the same time Ukraine seems to be doing the smart thing and is leaving all of the militia behind and only sending the regular army units south but keeping the militias under arms so they can train and be more prepared if Russia attempts a second invasion in the north.
And Russia does not have air superiority whatsoever, they might have the advantage but they don't control the skies yet. Ukrainian air defense remains intact and the Ukrainian Air Force is still making regular sorties every day, about a 100 last I heard. Russia is generally not able to utilize it's air force because the Ukrainian long range air defense are forcing them low to the ground where they're weak to MANPADs. If this situation continued then eventually Russia might achieve air superiority but at great cost but now NATO has made it clear that Ukraine is going to be receiving planes and air defense systems so it won't and with the seeming inability of the Russian Air Force to really conduct large scale operations over time this balance will swing in favor of Ukraine. Just like how the ground weapon balance is now mostly equal and turning in the favor of Ukraine.
The amount of war experts and specifically logistics experts in the comments is funny.
Thank you for an apolitical military outlook.
Excellent analysis. I learned some things. The puppet is cool, too 😉
We from Czech Republic just sent T-72 tanks for Ukraine 🙂😉 We will not let Ukraine bleed out.
Buy iodine tablets and seal your bedroom and bathroom in Prague.
Make sure to have at least 20 days supply of fresh water and some non perishable food.
Also remember that every action invites a reaction.
@@sargon4451 if Russia does that it will be nuked right back
@@sargon4451 Russian's wont do shit, they are incapable of conquering all of Ukraine and you think they will escalate with NATO :)))
@@sargon4451 So sending weapons to another country will be answered by Putin by commiting mass genocide against civilians, is that what you say?
A HUGE THANKS TO THE CZECH REPUBLIC!!! Ukraine needs every bit of help it can get
I think Binkov is forgetting that Russia is still not fighting in a modern way. Ukraines tactics are superior making great use of drones, artillery fire, anti air, anti tank weapons, and most importantly intelligence.
you are totaly right.
This new war in the Donbas area is both easier to plan for, its open flat ground so less concealment options, its closer to the Russian border and resupplies, its closer to air and naval assets to assist. There is some (some) Russian locals who do not hate them and just want peace in Donbas. Then again, every new bit of Russian army war crime will drive every troop to want to kill with a fervour that no Russians has experience in. You can imagine the west knows this stage of the war must be won or Ukraine is split like west-east germany and Putin thinks I can try again some years later somewhere else and still claim a fallback victory. Therefore its just a matter of moving as much hardware as fast as possible and turning the battle into a bloody stalemate ideally with some heavy Russian losses (even if the Ukrainian ones are hidden). Meanwhile Russian export sanctions will tighten further as you cannot be delivering weapons to one party and paying the other for fuel. Even the Indians/Chinese might stall the more war crimes are on TV/Social media
@@stephendoherty8291 long way still baby . ask the real nazis from 1942
@@letsmakemoney938 For both sides but ukraine has less rope
There's a lot of dead Ukrainians on the ground ,I guess y'all get your Intel from the fake news
I wonder what current ammo expenditure is and what are there stocks of artillery and rockets are? The expenditure has been massive.
Great video yet again
Large Putko bot activity detected, it seems that they have increased their "funding" by giving them 3 slices of bread instead of the usual two at the local public kitchen...
I'm still not convinced Russia can successfully pull off a new offensive given its failures so far, let alone a massive encirclement. Maybe Russia can recruit an invincible army of the dead, like in Lord of the Rings.
I mean, they learned some hard lessons now and have superior firepower. Russia can pull off new offensives, but they will be verry slow, otherwise their casualties will rise too high.
I agree because Russia logistically has proven to be seriously unprepared. It baffles me that Ukraine is literally right next to Russia and they struggled so badly with logistics.
Russia can successfully rape and kill massive numbers of civilians. The Russian army has proven to be good at that.
Great analysis 👍
Brilliant video thank you
Those 14,000 Russian soldiers are probably pretty badly beat up. I'd be surprised if they are in shape to contribute much to the Eastern offensive.
Ever heard or reinforcements ?
Putin made NATO relevant again
NATO made Putin relevant.
@@blackguard2247 Now Finland and Sweden will join NATO whose relevant now.
@@blackguard2247 nato is not an offensive alliance. Eastern Europe joined nato to protect themselves from Russia, they know Russian ambition from experience
@@endo4137 tell that to Serbians.
@@blackguard2247 no, putin would have expanded anyways
1st class ...thanks for sharing
Very good analysis.
Russian options: become fertilizer
The battle for Kyiv is over. The battle for Ukraine is about to begin.
The battle of Kyiv was the battle for Ukraine....
the whole war is battle for Ukraine
I see what you did there, but in the historical context for that remark, wasn't the first battle _won_ by the invaders? I don't recall Herr Hit1er bragging about his completely successful and strategically brilliant retreat from Paris...
This is the BBC Home Service.
“War without logistics is just a riot.”
Voice of Binkov sums up the story.
Absolutely astounded by Ukraine's preformence, whoever wins this Ukraine has fought with a bang not a whimper.
I think Zelenski could send re-enforcements to Mariupol but he doesn't. Hit and runs are visually stirring but not going to win the war. Ukraine looks to me like they're hoarding weapons instead of trying to evict the Russian Army.
If Russia could surround the forces in the east could they hold that siege?
How long would fighting go on in that pocket if Mariupol has held for so long?
If Russia had supply issues in the north how well would those supply lines hold up that deep into Ukraine?
All questions I just think about.
You compare city to mostly flat land. Outside the city russia can use anything up to tactical nuke without any "war crime" aftermath.
@@redaerf2b414 true, still I believe if they could have seriously pulled off a pincer manouver in the Donbass they would have done it already while their troops still controlled territories in the north, now it would stretch their numbers too thin and expose them to a counterattack from the hinterlands
@@redaerf2b414 I agree it’s not a 1 to 1 comparison, but there are cities in the east, and I’m sure the UA forces have defensive structures.
If Russia wants to just surround them and pound them they could, but that could also lead to issues in their rear.
I just don’t think it would be as simple as Russia surrounds some of Ukraine’s best units and they just give up, unless they just drop a tactical nuke it could take months to starve out or uproot the forces.
@@62shayne Pound them with artillery and height alt bombing as long as necessary. It is what russia cant do in a city, but perfectly capable of in a field.
Over and over again, the old adage that "amateurs talk tactics while professionals discuss logistics" is shown to be correct.
Apparently there is a dearth of professionals in Mr. Putin's army.
A really good analysis.
Today's US package contains among other things: 10 counter artillery radar, 200 m113 apcs, 100 up armored humvees, 11 Mi17s, unnamed coastal defense vessels.
ED: There is some sort of artillery discussion going on between US and Ukraine too. Maybe M109s ?
I understand that US is trying to write off those assets but still. How are those coastal defense vessels are going to get to Ukraine? Teleportation?
@@bg315 airdropped using skycranes like battlefield 2042
@@elmohead is that how they do it? I’m curious
@@bg315 maybe small enough to take apart to fit on a train? It could mean a lot of things, could be some sort of small craft for night raids or something.
More targets.
0ption 1: defeat.
Option 2: withdrawal.
2:49 I'm surprised there are only 15k troops shown in the Chernobyl region. Wasn't that the site of the 64km traffic jam with about 3k trucks/ tanks. I'd heard that alone had about 15k troops and not every single soldier coming from that direction was in that traffic jam.
One thing I don't understand. The push from Crimea has been successful but there are only 3 artificial bridges (all close to each other) and 1 narrow land bridge connecting them. One would think the bridges would have been rigged to blow or had artillery aimed at them leaving just one easily defended chokepoint but the Russians walked right in.
It wasn't a truly traffic jam, it was some parts of the force advancing too quickly and getting cut off from supplies, establishing perimeters around the major roads and roadside towns while waiting for supplies. The momentum was lost, wasted, so in order to not be perceived as having lost, pooting needed to reorient these forces towards an objectives we can possibly take.
as usual the best review
Over time Ukraine needs to be trained with modern Nato (western) equipment and then supplied with it.
My thougts exactly. It is not problem to deliver new weapon systems there, but train personel win new sofisticated equipment takes moths, at best.
They need to be armed with everything NATO has.
@@JohnSmith-gu6hf If only it was that simple.
The battalion groups that retreated form Kyiv and Sumy are badly battered, so it's not like all of them are just joining the fight in the east of Ukraine as if they have been there from the start. It's a big question which part of those is still able to fight.
People still continue to underestimate Ukraine. The problems with Russia's army are built in. There is still the strict "top down" command structure and the lower ranking officers and NCOs have no concept of taking the initiative. The Russian morale is also very low with few having any idea what they are fighting for vs the Ukraine forces who are about as motivated as an army can be. New heavier weapons are arriving every day from NATO. There is no way to know how this will turn out but I doubt Ukraine intends to lose and I doubt Russian forces really care either way.
US has send 7000 Javelins. UK 10000 NLAWs. Those weapons will totally disintegrate Russian tanks.
You are right, nobody knows. Particularly since Ukraine is getting weapons help and Russian economy is being punished.
However, the taking of Kyiv was just straight up stupid and coincidentally is where the majority of casualties were. There are also soldiers near Kyiv that are staying there.
There are indications that US special forces are running the ukrainean military. I suppose this isn’t surprising, but this is beginning to be more like an effort to hurt Russia and elongate the war.
You're relying too much on western media for information. The war is done. Ukraine surrounded in the east.
@@mikakorhonen5715 on defense, but not on offense unless they can mount on the newly arriving M113s, however that will take weeks.
@Ze TheGame yeah that's going to be an issue but it's an issue for later, though yes for the next 20+ years EU and member state have to prevent these weapons from getting into the wrong hands, Ukraine still remains also a very corrupt nation and after the war they need funds to rebuild, if European nations don't buy them off Ukranian army/citizens they will find their way to the black market.
Thank you for being amazing
Off to read the comments to see what the armchair generals think!
It‘s armchair field marshal for you!
Props to our guy Binkov. We know he gets it right by how many Russian trolls and wumaos we have in this comment section.
Lmao yup
Weirdly enough he isn't like, super critical of Russia or anything. Literally just... describing what has happened and what could develop
I like how what one group has in abundance the other is struggling to get enough of it.
Seems like Eastern Europe is already sending tanks and heavy artillery pieces to Ukraine, hope it helps
well Slovakia sent their S300 missile system and it survived 2 days after passing the border. It was a destroyed before even reaching its final destination. A convoy of heavy military equipment is kind of easy to hit as Russia control the skies.
The more the West sends help, the more it enables the most fanatic nationalists to continue this terrible war, only delaying the inevitable.
During this time, more people die and infrastructure gets destroyed.
At one point it would be more humane to stop using the poor Ukrainians in a proxy conflict between Nato and Russia, and accept the reality: Ukraine can not win this war, if Russia hasn't won yet, the Ukrainians have certainly lost. Lost their lives, their homes, their jobs, lost Crimea, and Kherson, and Donbass almost completely.
Mariupol is metaphore of the whole conflict: countless times Russia has offered them to surrender and safe passage to evacuate. Ukrainians refused. Now the city is destroyed, the Ukrainian army has lost the city anyway, so thousands have died for nothing. Just so Zelensky could save face.
Nato wants to fight the Russians until the last Ukrainian. And when they are done they will focus on a new war somewhere else. They don't care about Ukrainians at all.
@@MrPloopi Slovak S-300 being destroyed was a hoax, Russian video showing it's destruction was a patchwork of older footage of S-300s being destroyed. You have to understand the Ukraine is fighting for survival as a nation state and people's hatered for Russia runs deep and grows deeper still with every atrocity inflicted upon them. Maybe they can't win in the conventional way, but with the Western support they can make Russia take a Pyrhic victory and be the lord of rubble and ash while sacrificing a good portion of its military capabilities, not to mention it's international capital. In the end of the day the Ukrainians decided to fight an invading force and it is our moral duty to support them.
@@Warpcaller no it's our moral duty to stop this, if Nato wants war with Russia let it do it in Alaska where nobody lives.
Europe has been in enough bloody wars.
Half of Ukraine doesn't want to be Ukrainian if that means being ruled by ultra nationalists who hate them, and want them to die.
Nato is using Ukrainians.
@@MrPloopi I don't agree with the premise here. Let me preface this by saying that I would prefer if this war never happened and if it ended today it would be about 6 weeks too late as the scale of this tragedy is just mind boggling. That said the fact is Russia invaded a sovereign country under with reasons that are flimsy at best an laughable at worst. Who is Russia to dictate to another sovereign country what deals and pacts can it form or join? From the captured intel and the initial deployment of Russians we can safely assume they thought they can just roll into Kyjev, local government flees west, army folds in a couple days, we'll take some nice propaganda footage with our tank columns being hailed as liberators and go home while installing a pro-russian apparatus. This clearly did not work and Ukrainian people chose to resist the invasion. Should we have just let them be crushed in a couple weeks and people who resisted purged?
@@Warpcaller The USA dictates to other countries constantly and invade whatever country they want for very flimsy reasons as well, so why couldn't Russia do it when Nato is buiding bases at their borders? On what ground did they obliterate Libya, and was it really worth it? Libyans aren't free and many have died for nothing but Nato's will of destroying any third country who refuses to submit to them. And I don't remember any set of sanctions after Libya or Iraq or Afghanistan...
the defeat of Ukraine is inevitable, so why not cut short and let Ukraine have at least a semblance of ground to negociate on, some cities still standing, and some survivors. It's easy to sacrifice them from our comfortable armchairs for vague ideals we only care about when it's our interest.
After Mariupol fallen, and the massive offensive looming, I'm afraid Ukraine won't have anything to bargain with.
They block the civilians from escaping from Kharkov now, like they did in Mariupol. Showing how little they care for the eastern Ukrainians.
For the sake of the civilians, it think they will be safer under Pax Russianica than under Zlensky regime in total war mode. But if you want to fight the Russians go there instead of pushing the others to do it for you. It's the proxy conflict that makes me mad; Ukrinians are dying because of Nato/Russia feud and I'm not sure they really understand that. It's not about their national aspirations at all but a global chess game.
But we all have our opinions, I don't think Ukraine is worth dying for or even risking our whole economy, it was only a puppet regime from one side or the other.
Only the high command in Moscow knows what the Kiev operation was all about, the rest is only theories based on very biased information we have.
It appears heavy equipment transfers have now been approved for Ukraine. So it is a race to see how fast they can receive it.
Or how long it takes for Russia to strike rail hubs and highways
@@davidconnellan6875 They can't. They should have been doing that for a month and they haven't. Conclusion is they aren't capable enough.
@@user-mw2vn7pv8n Maybe the Russians don't know where the railheads are?
If Russia can break Kharkiv and the surrounding towns, they will have an open field for advance without ending up in another Mariupol/Kiev situation of long sieges. Knowing this, Ukraine likely will prepare for this, which ironically makes the southern front from Crimea the most efficient candidate for reinforcement and advance
Mariupol has fallen.
@@colonelangus8247 It did not. Russia captured port, because UA Marines breach to Azov unit abandoning it.
Those fake hostages clearly have unmarked Russian green cheap uniforms, instead more desert and modern ones used by Ukraine.
Mariupol was a 450 000 city, surrounded from all sides, yet hasn't been conquered up to this day. Kharkiv is a 1 400 000 - 2 000 000 city, surrounded from 2 sides. Lets do quick maths and calculate how many forces and time will Russia need to take Kharkiv and be able to advance afterwards.
Russias cyber warfare and propaganda capabilities are in full display in the comments below
We get it you're on the Ukrainian side, and you don't like people rooting for Russia. Also Russian propaganda is pretty meager compared to the Western one in general, but especially surrounding this conflict.
@@Niitroxyde lmao u jsut proved there point
Funny, considering that every Western media outlet and politician is on the side of Jewkraine (just like prior to Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya).
Should tell you all you need to know about whom to support.
Yeah, I heard that they increased rations for their bots from 2 slices of bread per day to 3 in the local public kitchen, big influx of Russian bot comments...
@@armija shet with a third world country like Russia I wouldn’t be surprised that they get payed in bread
I live in Germany and I'm not afraid at all of World War 3. The Russian army is so slow, they cannot arrive here before World War 6.
Germany alone could end the war within a week. There are so many stationary Russian convoys that the Bundeswehr would easily destroy
Did you ever hear about hypersonic missiles?
Russia has 1,200 hypersonic missiles and it takes on average 49 seconds to reach Berlin.
@@sargon4451 they cant even hit ukraine with those
but Russian nukes will arrive to you in 5 min 😃😃 ... so you probably should back down a bit 😆
@@sargon4451 hypersonics weapons are not real. supersonic yeah
The US passed a law restarting the Lend/Lease Act for Ukraine while waiving the 5 year limit. Ukraine will be getting its supply of tanks, heavy offensive equipment, and possibly aircraft. If the war stretches out for another year, Ukraine may be pitting F-16s and A-10s against the Russians.
Beautiful! I’d love to see some A-10 action on the invaders
This is absolutely not going to happen. It's probably gonna be M113s, MTVRs and the like.
@@greygray6230 it seems the russians want to see a-10 in action too! they make their Collums extra inviting
It would take months for Ukrainians to effectively use and maintain western aircraft and tanks. I don't know how useful that would be.
F-16s are probably more realistic if the fight is prolonged into months, A-10s are definitely a no. US hasn’t sold or given them to an outside country once
ukraine needs to take advantage of their ability to use "defense in depth" . they don't have enough force to directly confront RU head-on. If they use defense in depth, they can try to stretch out RU supply line again and take advantage of what happened in the north and have a chance to mount counteroffensive later after those RU units are thinned out with weakened supply lines as they move further west. Yes, initially, that might look like a retreat but it's better than doing a head on confrontation and losing a lot of units
You mean they should give up the ground and fight guerilla.
Well I have no idea what options they believe they have but their best one is this.... GO HOME!!!!!
Binkov, could you make a video on the Moskva ship?
promoted to submarine
@@pixelchrome2 🤣🤣🤣
🤣
@Alan Lewis ey, that's my joke, i stole it first, fair and square!
I love the way he is so impartial with everything he says. He does not take sides, but rather explains in detail both sides. Respect for you sir. #freeUkraine 🇺🇦
He is not impartial when he says that Russia intended to take Kiev when what Russia did was a military feint. That is spewing western propaganda. Like so many military experts, he either does not know what a military feint is or he intentionally refuses to acknowledge it.
@@davidgmillsatty1900 Russia, did intend to take Kiev, but they failed, if you look at his past videos, he even predicted it
@@johnlewington5841 No they didn't. Ritter's point is that the military math of taking a city that large would have required 200,000 troops for Kiev alone and that is all they had for the entire campaign. It was a military feint that held the troops in Kiev and gave the Russians time to destroy any chance the Ukrainians had of resupply to the eastern Ukrainian army. Military feints are well known to military historians and so is military math.
Taking Kiev is just propaganda.
@@davidgmillsatty1900 You don't lose that amount of equipment and manpower for a feint, and you sure as hell don't try to capture an airfield, fail (losing plenty of elite airborne infantry in the process), try again, take it after substantial losses, then give it up during a general retreat for a feint. It was obviously not a feint.
@@jonathanpfeffer3716 That is absolutely wrong. In order to fool the opposition you have to do everything possible to sell the feint, sometimes to the point of it being a suicide mission. And sometimes you are going to often have to use your best specialized troops to pull it off. And then the losses were highly exaggerated. Also part of the feint was the convoy. It sat out there for two weeks and the Ukrainians did not know what they were going to do. The convoy would have been a turkey shoot if the Ukrainians had any air power, but the convoy had little happen to it.
Russian offensives are basically impossible, the units withdrawn from the north are all badly damaged and would need months of rebuilding to be combat effective once again and Russia is not taking the time to do that and instead just consolidating random units and then throwing them back into the grinder. They are not gonna add any actual combat power to the Russian army in the South East and will be attacking into the most heavily fortified areas of Ukraine making them as good as dead. Russia also seems to be trying to replace losses with recruits and reservists but again those won't actually be effective, the territorial defense units of Ukraine worked because they were defensive in nature and often just tasked with keeping the peace but you can't do this for an offensive war. Which is why Ukraine is leaving those units behind but under arms, likely to now give them time to train and drill so if Russia does invade again in the north they'll be faced with a much stronger force.
Also what you said about heavy weapon systems have become wrong since you wrote that script. Many NATO countries are now starting to send heavy equipment and Germany has for example agreed to send about 300 BMP-1s and a few hundred modern artillery systems are also being sent and just an hour ago Biden announced 800 million USD in military aid mostly focused on artillery system, APCs and helicopters. At the same time there are now programs underway to train Ukrainian soldiers in NATO system so that they'll be able to be sent in the future. NATO is clearly ready to supply Ukraine with the equipment needed to make a major offensive in the future and both Ukraine and NATO seem to be taking this as a pause where they can focus on preparing for the future. Ukraine shouldn't have a hard time holding the current line with what's already there and in a few months time they'll be able to strike back with very modern systems.
At the same time Russia is absolutely running out of equipment, they're mostly out of cruise missiles already and while they do have vast inventories on paper they are mostly so old as to be useless. The modern systems are all quickly running out and Russia can't replace them with the sanctions, many military factory have had to completely shutter production at time due to a lack of supplies. It also seems like even the majority of the modern stuff was not in fighting condition and hasn't really helped Russia.
Ukraine would still need to hold on for AT LEAST half a year before a good portion of their army transitions to Western standard. problem here is even though 2-3 months can get couple units capable of operating Western vehicles on a basic level, they are not as trained or familiar as they are with Soviet-style weapons. Additionally, it is doubtful Ukraine would send Western-equipped units immediately mixed in with a mostly Soviet-style army because that complicates logistics. Unless they absolutely need them right this instant, Westernized units would have to wait until there is enough of them to operate independently and thus can justify the extra logistical challenge. A long war definitely benefit the Ukrainian militarily but I'm not sure if they want a long war given the suffering associated with such a war.
As for the Russian reinforcements from the north, they will likely have fairly poor cohesion and are exhausted, but would also be fairly experienced. 50,000 is still a lot and Russia don't have time to reconstitute their forces when sanction are in play. And giving Ukraine breathing room means letting them transition to NATO standard making Western supply even easier. They don't have any other option but to send them in. And all they really have to do is breakout from their bridgehead at Izyum go crazy at the open plains, which would still allow them to accomplish a lot of their objectives. Such as create a buffer for Donbas, secure fresh water supply for Crimea, doom Mariupol, and capture the oil field in east Ukraine. Throwing in remnants from the north will lead to a lot of casualties but if that is enough to breakout from Izyum, then they can claim some sort of victory. Although doubtful Ukriane would negotiate a ceasefire or peace deal without regaining that territory back. It is also why they probably wanted to go after Kyiv, so they can pressure such a peace deal.
the thing is russia is still using ww2 wave tactics but this time the factories arent pushing out ammo and equpiment, meanwhile ua gets pumped full of soldiers and all kids of goodies, so its gonna probably end in some sort of russian collapse
agreed, almost on all points. Take Kalibr missiles, for example - there was only about 100 in inventory at start of war. Now? Barely few dozen left, at best. Kremlin is taking missiles back from IRAN!!! lol And returning tanks from IRAQ lolol Volunteer force is refusing to go into Ukraine, in mass! Kremlin is simply out of cannon fodder and resources to continue this. Seriously - a month at best, and they will be completely out, of everything.
@@neurofiedyamato8763 2-3 months is more than enough time to train soldiers up to NATO standards. That is about the length of any US military training course I can think of, from learning how to operate tanks/artillery/IFVs/APCs to anything else. The only thing I can think of that would take longer is learning how to operate modern fighters or attack helicopters, which aren't being sent.
After this war i finally understood how casual ur actually are.
Where are von Manstein and Grudarian? What happened to the Army Groups North, Central and South?