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the first time i read your comment, I missed the colon.I thought it was a comma. I was about to start fuming because I thought you were telling me that I could use quadratic programming to solve for it, and I was like I JUST SAID THAT. Then I saw the colon instead of a comma lol
@@intothecryptoverse Do you also have a stock portfolio? Is it possible to run portfolio theory combining BTC, ETH, and stocks like Apple or Google, or even ETFs? It seems to me that it would make more sense to get rid of a decent chunk of BTC during parts of the cycle and buy stocks, but does the math have a good way of predicting the top of the cycle and measuring the risk of losing out on more upside when you try to sell BTC at the peak and buy back in during crypto winter? In recent years, the stock market has also had the volatile gains that crypto traders love, so I would guess that the optimal risk averse strategy is more about timing jumps between stocks and crypto instead of jumps between BTC and altcoins. Thanks for everything you do.
Thanks for the video Ben! Would love to see the same modern portfolio theory stratified by the halving/pre-halving/post-halving years. Kinda defeats the purpose of holding a long position, but would be curious to see
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great content, Shows us what is needed for a long term perspective to stay in the market and to be on the top according to each ones risk taking capacities
Ben, your video’s are gems and your view on Bitcoin dominance has proven to be very accurate. Taking all information into account, the ETH/BTC sharpe ration should also take the market phase into account. Knowing the market phase, the perfect sharpe ratio could be different.
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Very cool Ben. I've played around with these for stocks in other broker software and it is helpful for setting up a long term portfolio. Usually I just eye it, but hey 80/20 is what I would guess on BTC/ETH. 😂
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I’m assuming not enough data. SOL has only been available for just over 4 years, which really isn’t that long for MPT purposes. This theory is really meant to be used to support long term investing decisions (5+ years at minimum, more helpful at 10+ years)
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Could you use only data from post-halving years to identify the portfolio with the best risk-adjusted performance for 2025... that would an interesting video.
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It sounds like a great video. I wish i would understand this. one of the reasons i don't get the paid (standard) account) is that i doubt i would even know how to use it and have a return.... still hope to understand some by listening to you long enough
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These past years have been the most alpha filled years of my crypto journey, Have started selling off some of my btc to have funds for a home soon and these videos helped a lot in my reasoning through the market.
This guy is so fucking right, wicked content, unlike other youtubers that add ramdon lines on the charts and keep saying that they predicted the move. Ben is real content like a lesson. Thanks a lot Ben, you are so fucking good, hugs from Brazil
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Well, of its similar to XRP doesn't mean it will pump like XRP. 2 different coins and narratives. The chart does look kind of ok but its hard to tell. Its already 9 bil. At the best it can go to 30 bil. For 3 x you are risking a lot. I think there are better alternatives (pyth, sei, even cardano).
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@@kevinhuddleston6438 I’m just a newbie but doesn’t SOL generate by far the most revenue out of all L1s + it has the most amount of devs and new devs.. definitely worth some analysis imo
Thank you very much for your video.. The question, considering that President Trump has announced BTC as a strategic reserve, if that happens and if other countries join in buying BTC, is it possible that we will no longer have a BTC cycle and that this could be the last alt coin cycle ? Thanks in advance.
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Ben, your simulation ignores the fact that a portfolio which contains ethereum benefits from staking eth so the opportunity cost of holding eth over btc is actually lower than what you are suggesting in the video.
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Fyi⏱Timestamps are created for videos that are an hour or longer-also for Ben’s NFA Live show, the Collaboration Series videos and the weekly ITC Premium AMA livestreams-Enjoy👍
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why doge? its a pos meme coin. meme coins are a cancer i wish people just stopped investing in them and started funding projects that actually progress and innovate on crypto tech
Well, no wonder why 75 % of retailers lose with crypto😅😅😅😅. I give you an advice, don't merry any coin, not even BTC. We are here to make money in a clever and responsible way. No one cares about ada, sol, eth, dodge, etc. holding these coins won't solve my issues, but fiat currency can. So....do research, see opportunities, buy a coin and when its time, sell it.
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Loving your approach to everyone else's alt coins 😂 thanks for covering the btc pairs. Meanwhile the gold/bitcoin pair since inception looks like a dying altcoin gradually approaching 0, can we have your thoughts on interpreting that?
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Ben, since this is all based on historical data do you think this is skewed away from ETH (assuming the best ETH year of the cycle is about to start) and that this is likely to look significantly different by the end of 2025?
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I'm not Ben, but I'd say it would be so little it wouldn't matter. It's going back ten years during a time when ETH was young with a small market cap and producing the most gains against the much larger and more mature Bitcoin. Maybe you throw an extra percent in if you want. But your question is a little odd as these are smoothed averages meant for very long time frame portfolio investment, 5-10 years+, so what happened last year or next means little in yhe long run, you just adjust the portfolio as it goes along. If you're looking for short term, one-two year cycle type stuff that really supercharges gains at opportune times and would demolish a long term portfolio, then none of this has any value imo.
Yay! A LTC mention. Everyone dumps on it. It's the only altcoin I could buy besides eth where I live and I bought when Ben said it made sense to diversify once BTC dominance reached 60%. Haven't been sorry and hopeful for xrp like returns to come. (also bought eth and hopeful for that as well)
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79 percent in btc, 21 percent in eth - in the long term they win. If you want to make massive gain in a short term period though , this is not your channel as Benjamin is not a moon boy
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A static portfolio is not the best answer. You don't have to time the tops and bottoms to make general repositionings over a 4 year cycle, which are more beneficial.
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"... my issue is Sharpe ratio punishes positive volatility..." Oh Ben, you must love MPT then ; ) With it's gaussian distribution model when stocks ain't gaussian and MPTs portfolios going through zero but still being counted as winning portfolios 😅
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Every time ben mentions bitcoin dominance, a drone over new jersey gets its wings.
😂😂😂
😂😂😂😂
Oh gawd 💀
Operation Zuzu's petals
Lmao
Ben: You don't need to use all these Monte Carlo simulations, you can just use quadratic programming.
*Me nodding along like I'm following*
the first time i read your comment, I missed the colon.I thought it was a comma. I was about to start fuming because I thought you were telling me that I could use quadratic programming to solve for it, and I was like I JUST SAID THAT. Then I saw the colon instead of a comma lol
@@intothecryptoverse understandable
I really like how Ben teaches us the practical uses for calculus.
@@intothecryptoverse Ben, you're gonna single-handedly get a whole generation of young bros to pay attention in their college math classes.
@@intothecryptoverse Do you also have a stock portfolio? Is it possible to run portfolio theory combining BTC, ETH, and stocks like Apple or Google, or even ETFs? It seems to me that it would make more sense to get rid of a decent chunk of BTC during parts of the cycle and buy stocks, but does the math have a good way of predicting the top of the cycle and measuring the risk of losing out on more upside when you try to sell BTC at the peak and buy back in during crypto winter? In recent years, the stock market has also had the volatile gains that crypto traders love, so I would guess that the optimal risk averse strategy is more about timing jumps between stocks and crypto instead of jumps between BTC and altcoins. Thanks for everything you do.
Impressive video, you are the best crypto youtuber
"it is what it is. I don't control what it is" 🤣 Ben is a legend!!!!
"What does litecoin do best? Bleed against the KING!!!" hahahaha, that is funny Ben!!!
I'm a simple man. Ben say DUBIOUS, I hit Like.
Mmyes quadratic programming, indeed exactly what I was thinking 🧐🤔
😭
No one:
Ben: That's a fair question and you can solve that using quadratic programming.
😅
Very bold and incredibly useful piece of research-thank you, Ben!
Thanks for the video Ben! Would love to see the same modern portfolio theory stratified by the halving/pre-halving/post-halving years. Kinda defeats the purpose of holding a long position, but would be curious to see
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Appreciate topics like this. Don't often see investing youtubers talk about Modern portfoliio theory. Will you also talk about omega ratio?
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great content, Shows us what is needed for a long term perspective to stay in the market and to be on the top according to each ones risk taking capacities
Great video, looking forward to experimenting this tool! Merry Christmas!
Love the tool, Ben! Would be great to be able to add other assets / indices as well, such as SPX / NDX / Gold.
Ben, your video’s are gems and your view on Bitcoin dominance has proven to be very accurate. Taking all information into account, the ETH/BTC sharpe ration should also take the market phase into account. Knowing the market phase, the perfect sharpe ratio could be different.
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Chainlink update is due my man. Triple bottoms LINK ETH LINK BTC
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Very cool Ben. I've played around with these for stocks in other broker software and it is helpful for setting up a long term portfolio. Usually I just eye it, but hey 80/20 is what I would guess on BTC/ETH. 😂
70/30 here. 😂
I love you man but why pick to crap alts? Why not try it with Solana?
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I’m assuming not enough data. SOL has only been available for just over 4 years, which really isn’t that long for MPT purposes. This theory is really meant to be used to support long term investing decisions (5+ years at minimum, more helpful at 10+ years)
thank you very much Ben
I've been waiting for this stuff, thank you!
@11:51 - This basically says no Alt season till 2026. Thats a very scary thought
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This is Scooby Dubious. Love it.
Would love to see you do another video on chainlnk. It’s been a long time
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Chain who?
@@yz125rider2006 My link bag looking pretty nice rn
The one that does +30% in one day occasionally
Could you use only data from post-halving years to identify the portfolio with the best risk-adjusted performance for 2025... that would an interesting video.
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It sounds like a great video. I wish i would understand this. one of the reasons i don't get the paid (standard) account) is that i doubt i would even know how to use it and have a return.... still hope to understand some by listening to you long enough
To make it short, to maximize the return, it should be 82% BTC, 18% ETH & 0% of LTC or XRP!!! or if u have cash, 53% BTC, 14% ETH & 33% USD
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cash to buy the low or just as emergency fund or to invest it in other asset when presented the opportunity?
These past years have been the most alpha filled years of my crypto journey, Have started selling off some of my btc to have funds for a home soon and these videos helped a lot in my reasoning through the market.
You the man Ben
This guy is so fucking right, wicked content, unlike other youtubers that add ramdon lines on the charts and keep saying that they predicted the move. Ben is real content like a lesson. Thanks a lot Ben, you are so fucking good, hugs from Brazil
Very very good video. Thanks for your sage insights.
Can confirm, I do like the content.
Thank you, Ben. Please Include Solana next.
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Hey @Benjamin Cowen: Could you disclose your views on how high ETH/BTC ratio could go this cycle? Thanks!
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When Ben showed that Litecoin chart looks similar to XRP but LTC hasn't pumped...did anyone else wonder if we should be buying LTC now?!
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Well, of its similar to XRP doesn't mean it will pump like XRP. 2 different coins and narratives. The chart does look kind of ok but its hard to tell. Its already 9 bil. At the best it can go to 30 bil. For 3 x you are risking a lot. I think there are better alternatives (pyth, sei, even cardano).
Ben the og of crypto
Thanks Ben. Always thankful for a video from you. Are you guys working on SOL as an asset in your MPT simulation?
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33 years after passing Calc 2: After watching this video I now feel like I need to go back to school...
I would like to See the same calculations with Solana
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Why? Solana has no security...
@@kevinhuddleston6438 I’m just a newbie but doesn’t SOL generate by far the most revenue out of all L1s + it has the most amount of devs and new devs.. definitely worth some analysis imo
Ask again in 10 years. Sol hasn't been around long enough
So amazing i learned a lot!
Thank you very much for your video..
The question, considering that President Trump has announced BTC as a strategic reserve,
if that happens and if other countries join in buying BTC, is it possible that we will no longer have a BTC cycle and that this could be the last alt coin cycle ?
Thanks in advance.
Can you use options or some other strategy/tool/resource and add to the calculation to minimize risk, maximize return in high volatility?
And it returns the sharpe/sortino ration you desire
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Great video. If you decide for e.g. the 0.7 volatility (btc / eth), do you swap constantly to maintain the ratio of 93 / 7 ?
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Ben is superb a very clever trader.
Ben, your simulation ignores the fact that a portfolio which contains ethereum benefits from staking eth so the opportunity cost of holding eth over btc is actually lower than what you are suggesting in the video.
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time stamps
Fyi⏱Timestamps are created for videos that are an hour or longer-also for Ben’s NFA Live show, the Collaboration Series videos and the weekly ITC Premium AMA livestreams-Enjoy👍
I'm curious what Bens 3rd favorite crypto is. He mostly talks about BTC and ETH.
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Hey Ben. Why not use a smaller historical timeframe in order to include Solano.
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What if we put SOL or DOGE into the equation ...
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why doge? its a pos meme coin. meme coins are a cancer i wish people just stopped investing in them and started funding projects that actually progress and innovate on crypto tech
1000 in DOGE we already know😂😂😂
Honestly would have seen a dramatic difference with using Doge as the 3rd… look at DOGEBTC
Well, no wonder why 75 % of retailers lose with crypto😅😅😅😅. I give you an advice, don't merry any coin, not even BTC. We are here to make money in a clever and responsible way. No one cares about ada, sol, eth, dodge, etc. holding these coins won't solve my issues, but fiat currency can. So....do research, see opportunities, buy a coin and when its time, sell it.
When in 2025 will we see the famed ETH Tsunami?
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Jan
@ 😊I can’t wait😊
If you are a subscriber, can you modify this to include any crypto or equity?
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no only the ones you could see in the video
But does ETH-BTC ever get back to .06?
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Doge as the 3rd!
13:52 - Star Trek Communicator anyone? Surly Ben is a fellow trekky
Cheers Ben
Do you use elliott wave theory for altcoins short term?
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my favorite series of yours. just dont like it doesnt take in sec manipulation granting btc/ethgate a freepass lol
Loving your approach to everyone else's alt coins 😂 thanks for covering the btc pairs. Meanwhile the gold/bitcoin pair since inception looks like a dying altcoin gradually approaching 0, can we have your thoughts on interpreting that?
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Good day Sir!
thanks Ben
Little bit sus that you don’t show that the ideal ratio gives around 10 percent doge
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Nice
Ben, since this is all based on historical data do you think this is skewed away from ETH (assuming the best ETH year of the cycle is about to start) and that this is likely to look significantly different by the end of 2025?
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I'm not Ben, but I'd say it would be so little it wouldn't matter. It's going back ten years during a time when ETH was young with a small market cap and producing the most gains against the much larger and more mature Bitcoin. Maybe you throw an extra percent in if you want.
But your question is a little odd as these are smoothed averages meant for very long time frame portfolio investment, 5-10 years+, so what happened last year or next means little in yhe long run, you just adjust the portfolio as it goes along. If you're looking for short term, one-two year cycle type stuff that really supercharges gains at opportune times and would demolish a long term portfolio, then none of this has any value imo.
Yay! A LTC mention. Everyone dumps on it. It's the only altcoin I could buy besides eth where I live and I bought when Ben said it made sense to diversify once BTC dominance reached 60%. Haven't been sorry and hopeful for xrp like returns to come. (also bought eth and hopeful for that as well)
Better change the video title to 'Maximize your risk-adjusted-returns.' Was expecting a whole other video. :-S
Someone simplify this advanced knowledge for me please, so what do I do with the $1,000?
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79 percent in btc, 21 percent in eth - in the long term they win.
If you want to make massive gain in a short term period though , this is not your channel as Benjamin is not a moon boy
Awww I want to see Solana in the chart. 😅
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A static portfolio is not the best answer. You don't have to time the tops and bottoms to make general repositionings over a 4 year cycle, which are more beneficial.
wondering how the result will be if you overlay newer alts into the analysis : $VIRTUAL $HYPE $SUI
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THX BEN
Litecoin is going to set new all time high against BTC and ETH
subtitles closed??!!!! plz On
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@@ITC_Adminхорошо, что есть Алиса 😊
Xrp is not a scares asset
it's a fixed asset. There will only ever be 100 billion.
Every transaction burns xrp. Billions of transactions will change the supply.
@@jaydee8864what do you mean ..every transactions burns?
@@jaydee8864If they ever happen 😂
"... my issue is Sharpe ratio punishes positive volatility..."
Oh Ben, you must love MPT then ; )
With it's gaussian distribution model when stocks ain't gaussian and MPTs portfolios going through zero but still being counted as winning portfolios 😅
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Do this for $ADA, Ben
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Litecoin could blast.
?
BOOM 💥 BOOM 💥
Ben, I had Stu Meyers as my prof and he had nothing on you!
BREAKING: Ben will be featured in Kendrick Lamar's Superbowl halftime performance, rapping a diss against LTC/BTC pair
Ben, are u planning to add other coins inside the modern portfolio theory tool? Right now there's only 6 coins
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,, dont marry a coin" remember kids!
tHANK U BEN
probably BNB or Link would have different outcomes
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Video on MSTR, MSTY, etc… ? Is it worth having some?
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If you think MSTR being added to qqq is bullish, then yes, definitely
We already drew the house at 100. How high we drawing the drone 😂
🎉🎉
A++
DOGE would have been interesting
OMEGA RATIO
love u
In the long term everything is going to zero against bitcoin
Solana did much better than btc and eth tho
❤
Didn't listen, put life savings in meme coins (plz don't do this)
🖖
😊
xrp vs btc 😂
Nice