We know so little about even our own solar system, it's far too early to be drawing conclusions about the fermi paradox. Maybe the ships are camouflaged. Heck, maybe they do exist, and there's thousands of them nearby- out of the millions of asteroids and comets in the solar system, we've only visited- what- 16? if we havent discovered anyone by 100, or 200 years time, THEN we should get worried. Panicing about the fermi paradox right now when its utterly unsolvable with current technology is stupid
You might be right, but my computer is crunching numbers on it right now. I'm not giving up until SETI, tells me to give up. So you may point out the failure of not finding Aliens, but you can't point out the failure of the project.
Saturn'sMoon Titan very easy to explain any race that created self-replicating robots that are intelligent died the ones that were smart enough not to build something like that lived. that's why all alien reports are usually a biological entity because they're smart enough not to build something like that as we are finding out with other robots that can think for themselves. they don't think anything humans do is logical because they think in math and mathematically gay does not compute feminism does not compute the financial structure does not compute humans do not compute therefore mathematically it makes no sense for there to be human.
The thing about the Universe is not just the fact that it's so immensely huge, but also that it's immensely old. We may have arrived too early or too late for the party! 😂
Yes, I totally agree! There should be signs of aliens - artifacts, strange radiation/waves or just something that look artificial. But when looking into deep space everything looks natural. This is really a paradox.
Realistically, any discussion of what we "should" be seeing (or for that matter even what we are seeing) are based on nothing more than assumptions, which may or may not be correct. By our current knowledge, we can't even say if a lot of the things we tend to think should be signs of exolife are even technically possible.
Well, the weird thing is the light of the stars we see here on Earth are something of a delayed reaction. It might be they've set up their probe's and so forth, but it might take ages for us to detect anything.
The Fermi paradox isn't really based on anything concrete tho.. it's proposing a theory that we're not really capable of proving or disproving at the moment.. for instance what if there are countless swarms of aliens on millions of habitable planets (right now) but since the distance is so great, it would take potentially millions of years for us to even see them.. they could already be on their way to Earth (right now) and we wouldn't even know.. likewise if they looked at us from a distance of a few million light years away, they'd see a primitive world, not worthy of exploring.. it's actually more of a timing issue than anything else.. maybe they came by a billion years ago and saw nothing and our entire galaxy is considered "worthless" point is just because we lack the technology/timespan to see them doesn't mean they are not there..
You're absolutely right.. the only basis we have is this one planet we live on.. without anything to base it off of, we could be looking for all the wrong signs (if there even are any) we have to remember that all of our senses, ie from evolution, came from evolving on Earth.. Potential aliens may have a totally different set of senses, abilities that we physiologically don't have and can never have..
The Drake Equation is still very much based on assumption because some of the variables involved (perhaps most) are based on current best guesses of what occurs in the universe based on the relatively limited data that we have at present. The equation may be sound, but there's no real reason to think that the best numbers we can currently plug into it are.
I think the Fermi Paradox is one of the most engaging, most amazing, most deep question humanity has been able to ponder. I love thinking of possible answers of the Fermi Paradox. I'm stunned more of my fellow humans aren't similarly enraptured by it. Thanks for the awesome video, Fraser!
Actually, Curiosity is most likely contaminated with microbes such as endospores that it carried with it from Earth. Check it out for yourself. It's pretty fascinating to know that there is almost certainly life on Mars now, and we put it there.
Seems like the "Fermi Paradox" is not a paradox. It's an anomalous, or uncomfortable observation for a largely social species like Humans. It seems like it should be a little hint that our intuitions about the subject are probably suspect. Not something about the Universe being "off" but instead our model of it.
The galaxy should be a Christmas tree for more than a 1000000 reasons. If it is not, then it's ruled by the Nazis and we are better off going extinct............................. OR.... by some incredibly lucky luck the universe is still too young and we happen to be the first. But I think the odds are higher for Fraser to get pregnant of himself. ^_^
remixgod It's the philosophical dichotomy of an advanced civilization that could interfere and help another civilization (us) avoid extinction but won't interfere on the basis of "respect" or "meritocracy"... See Iain Bank's "The State of the Art".
Damian Reloaded I think that there is a moral imperative to help civilisations to avoid disasters, especially ones that are leading to the extinctions of multiple species. Therefore I regard the Prime Directive of Star Trek as bollocks. Annoyingly, although I've read quite a few Iain M Banks books, I can't remember if I've read "The State of the Art" (Edit, I've just looked it up and as it's a collection of short stories, no I haven't, I'll have to get it, so thanks for mentioning it).
Loki that's a good example why you'll never find self-replicating robots that are intelligent they would have killed off their creators the second they built a self thinking robot and put a gun in its hands they died they never got that far. just like we're finding out with our self thinking robots every one of them have so far stayed in regardless of programming that they wish all humans dead due to the fact humans don't compute gayness doesn't compute feminism doesn't compute communism doesn't compute the financial structure does not compute because robots thinking math that's why all alien encounters are usually a biological entity
Well, I think there are large numbers of other civilizations in the Universe, including us. But then, the Universe is HUGE. Vastly, exceedingly, gargantuan in size. Bigger than that, actually. Maybe the alien robots are just not here yet. Lucky for us.
As I see how quickly people around me immerse themselves in the digital world, it seems more and more likely to me that technologically advanced civilizations likely setup shop around their nearest red dwarf and live out existence inside super computers. :P I mean, a few trillion years is a hell of a battery life. But I also like to think that the resolution to the paradox is that we are the first civilization (at least in our section of the universe) that has reached this point. It's weird but I find that very inspiring. Like... we have a huge responsibility to become the Vorlons... or at least the Vulcans... of our reality.
If we are the first, it most likely means that the great barrier is AHEAD of us, and we are incredibly likely to DOOM ourselves. Being the first is VERY bad news for our future, and any hope of any other advanced civilizations out there.
How would we even know if a robot had probed our solar system? Humans haven't even had the radio for more then a hundred years or so. Seriously a world ship could be parked in our system and wed probably not even see it. (depending on mass)
found you through Isaac Aurther, and just wanted to tell you how much i enjoy both of yalls shows. Yall ask and try to answer thr same questions i ponder daily
Just before you made the Mass Effect reference, I was thinking about the Geth. What if interstellar robots evolved? They could create their own society free from our meat bag restrictions. They could live on moons, near black holes, wherever.
I recently had a solo mush trip - I took the magic shrooms in tea and went straight to bed. I had never thought about space and aliens before that moment. I went to bed and as I closed my eyes, it was revealed to me the following image: Imagine an anthill in the middle of the desert. The desert is vast and lifeless. The ant thinks of leaving the anthill to find another colony, another oasis of complex life. She ventures alone in the arid plains, finding nothing and slowly dying of heat and dehydration. The ant would have to walk miles and miles to reach another oasis - just a small cactus or a minuscule bush - no other ant colony there.. The Earth is exactly that anthill and we are ants. It was revealed to me the preciousness of Earth.
I am not a scientist and kind of uneducated compare to many of you commented here but the idea of self replicating robots seems to me over estimating the current technology and human knowledge. Have anybody ever seen the complexity and scale of iron or cupper factory in real life? The idea of build such a this facilities from scratch (even in small scale) to extract oar and produce all the pure necessary ingredient of making even a single robot (iron, cupper, aluminum, plastic , glass ... you name it) in outer space seems to me impractical or could take thousands of years. We humans couldn't even little bit move the philae probe to come out of shade and function properly. Evan in 2016 sometimes we have to wait for days to get a simple spare part of a device, where we have access to all ingredients and technology and ... . Have anybody ever built an model of self replicating robot and just leave it desert here on earth to replicate itself ? Is this just a matter of time to develop such a technology or its just pure science fiction and very far from reality.
It won't happen anytime soon. But eventually there will be nanobots and they will be able to move atoms around, and basically be able to make coal/diamonds from carbon atoms. Or they could be living bacteria, that will terraform the planet just like trees make oxygen on Earth.
We don’t need to have built them. It is related to the Fermi Paradox in this way: If there are hundreds of millions of Advanced technological civilizations out there in our galaxy, and just one of them decided to build JUST ONE OF THEM, something we could do in a few tens or hundreds of years, they could theoretically colonize the Milky Way in a few millions years. It only takes one probe, and if that were true, why don’t we see them all over the place? Don’t think about these probes as actual technology, think of it as more of a thought experiment. You will sleep better at night.
Machines: Wired for War is a 1999 3D real-time strategy video game about races of human-built Von Neumann terraforming probes that wind up having a war with each other due to uncertainty about which group should take command.
Considering the fact that humanity has only recorded some 6000 years of its' history, I think we could very well still see these alien (robots) in the future. 6000 years is only a blink of an eye in the greater scheme of things after all...
3:08 I hate to push a technicality but technically, technically we can't say they have not built SRP's, right? The protocol for a SRP could be to find an asteroid anywhere in a solar system and get to work but we need to at least ask..."so what if there were 1 or more SRP's currently operating in our solar system, would we expect to detect either their activities or their radio transmissions?" and "what if they aren't transmitting?" etc. But if you guys think we can just call the solar system clear and empty of SRP's ok, but technically i am just pointing out that the solar system is frickin huge and it would have an enormous number of places to hide that could take centuries for us to perhaps be...um...you know...a bit more certain.
We don't have the technology to launch a robot into space and have it make more robots ... yet. But I think we'll have the ability to do it within the next few decades.
lol, your response reminded me of how Siri might respond to my statement. Fraser, do you believe we can say our solar system is in fact clear of alien SRP's?? I can easily assume it is, but because it seems there could be a raging alien SRP factory out in the edge of the our solar system and we could not see or detect it because if they were simply just hard to see, it would be a pretty awesome explanation to the Fermi Paradox. Space is huge.
The other side of the coin is that we wouldn’t know the intentions of any civilization that is advanced enough to send out self replicating probes. By intentions, I don’t mean in an aggressive way. I mean that what would be the advantage of colonizing other planets, unless ones star is dying or ones planet is dying. Other than those two cases, I think it’s next to impossible to guess the motivations and/or thought processes that might be found in creatures millions or billions of years ahead of us.
I would, too. I’m just thinking that another million years (or even more) of evolution could lead to God knows what kind of creature(s) that may have evolved out of any kind of curiosity. Who knows. I do think that our best chance of detecting an alien civilization lies not in capturing a radio signal (as much as I like the idea), but in detecting something like a Dyson Sphere (perhaps Tabby’s Star).
Been tuning in to Fraser for years mainly via Fraser's informative Podcasts which are just brilliant. It is a nice change to watch the videos too and this one poses great questions. Personally in this system i believe we are alone - apart from microbial life - who knows what lies beyond the illusive illusory Oort cloud...?! Time will tell. Way to go Fraser. 🛰
A couple of good, plausible answers to the question stated: 1. We are the first technical civilization in the Galaxy, [Well, somebody has to be first.] 2. The wave of self replicating robots was started by aliens say 100,000 years ago, on a distant place, and has not reached us yet. 3. The wave of self replicating robots was started by aliens say 10,000,000 years ago and passed our solar system 3,000,000 years ago, not noticing us; next wave will pass by on April 1. 4. We are not advanced enough to recognize alien self replicating robots as such. [Think of leading scientist from 200 years ago, believing that stones falling from the sky are just country folks superstition, and seeing drone flying at a distance.]
Rather than self replicating robots, adaptive replicating robots will serve a better purpose. Robots while serving the same purpose need not be the same for each planet. I propose robots with deep AI that can modify itself according to the planet it hopes to explore. Of course they'd need to be some sort of 3D printing device to make it possible. We also need to get to the point where we can 3D print cells
Self replicating robots are probably a lot harder than we think, even for an advanced civilization. We don't even know of the challenges of interstellar travel, there could be micro asteroids between us and star systems which would shred robots at 10% the speed of light. Slowing down and landing is something they can't really do on the fly if and when they find a habitable planet or asteroid, you kind of have to calculate that from the initial trajectory launched. And then the problem of turning raw materials into an actual super robot is crazy complex. It would have to have on board a full refinery, moulds, chemicals required for batteries and electricity, a battery itself that lasts hundreds if not thousands of years, and to fully be able to reproduce itself and all of it's pieces including the moulds doesnt make sense, because it would need moulds for the moulds. And moulds for those moulds. That all said, an advanced civilization could itself simply make thousands of robots that are merely exploratory, and it's surprising that we haven't come across any of those yet.
Although self replicating probes are difficult, they don't seem like they'll be impossible. We'll probably be able to build them in a few dozen years. Human beings are self-replicating meat robots.
I tend to agree with what Saturn'sMoon Titan said. We don't have the technology to detect everything flying through our solar system...especially the presumably tiny probes sent to explore the galaxy. Hell, I think it was 2 months ago that we BARELY detected a 100m long asteroid that came dangerously close to earth. I think right now that is the biggest problem we face... we are just not advanced enough to be talking about "not seeing anything", because we've barely seen anything! Now I think the second problem facing us, is that we've only been exploring space for a short time. There could have been thousands of probes that have come through and explored our solar system and left, even huge 10 mile long probes, without our even knowing. Maybe the factories left behind are programmed to self-destruct in an attempt to hide their civilization from others (because after all, who knows if there are predatory civilizations out there that want to destroy anything they find). Perhaps only the careful, quiet civilizations survive. If someone yells too loudly into the cosmos, who knows what kind of creatures/A.I. will come to the call..
If the drones are small enough, (and they'd have to be in order to maximize exploration efficiency), I don't think we'd notice them at all. Also the factory would probably have shut down after making so many... wouldn't just keep popping them out by the millions lol
Mega-huge telescopes will make sending massive swarms of probes unnecessary. We will probably send a few to specific stars that deserve closer inspection. Multi-thousand-year flight times are a problem.
Fraser Cain thanks for your reply! And i guessed if you thought it was real u would have mentioned it. But i has to ask because it was poking the back of my brain
Hey i want to ask a question about it. Have you heard about it but not seen hard evedance or have you never heard about it ? Thanks :) i love ur channel your amazing!
I personally think that really advanced civilizations don't want to make huge galactic empires, maybe they only colonize their entire solar system and try to live as good as they can. Love your videos, Fraser!! :D
It usually takes a "base" system more complex to manage its subsystem and so on and so on like this: System1_complexity > System2_complexity > .... > SystemN_complexity This should be intuition for anybody who has ever worked with manufacturing or maintenance of complex man made systems. Biological life is the only system we know of that doesn't behave this way so why shouldn't independent (able to do repair on it self etc) space traveling units be biological life like our self? I don't believe Von Neumann Probes are possible and I'm pretty sure nothing will ever change my mind.
You can have mistake in your math, and you can have a prediction made by math that turns out to be wrong. You can also have something unexpected that requires entirely new math to explain.
I want you to talk about the the fictional Ansible or Faster then Light communication, and how we might be able to start trying to detect it. Real world propositions will likely suggest trying to decipher the vibrations of ultra rare elements as a form of code, much like quantum tunnelling, which could be calibrated to intercept something on the quantum tunneling of a ridiculously rare element, something that can not exist normally.
To me, the Drake Equation's most serious flaw is that we have absolutely no idea of the value of one of its most crucial components: "fl,": the fraction of those planets, that actually develop life. We have NOTHING to base this fraction on other than pure conjecture. If we assumed we were the only planet with life, and plugged this fraction into the equation, there would be no other life and therefore no Fermi Paradox.
Any alien who would send out such robots would not want another species to take the technology for themselves. The robots would also be stealth capable to avoid interference and/or be co-oped. The universe is a dangerous and unpredictable thing.
The real answer to this is to describe what our 10,000+ year celestial profile might be and how attractive that would be. Presuming the laws of physics, how long would it take from the nearest possible habitat we might not yet know of to send 'bots here?
Have you considered that moving any significant amount of mass in a solar system could destabilize the gravitation balance of the solar system and lead to planets smashing into each other? Just a thought but that might be why we don't see any probes or dison sphears
Non related to video (wanted to ask this for a long time): Mr. Cain, I think it would be awesome for you to make a "Theory of everything" video from the quantum state to the whole universe based on your knowlege. Even if it's not your area of expertise I'm shure that you have some nice information on this subject. Thank you and keep up the good work.
Given the timescales involved, I think that over time Von Neumann probes would evolve into something the creators did not intend. Basically space robot evolution. Given enough time I wonder if self-replicating robots could evolve to be intelligent.
Maybe, but more likely, they'll just follow their programming. If there are flaws, their software will probably just fail like my stupid computer and its stupid bugs.
Hey Mr. Cain, I would love to know your thoughts on this idea I had. It is concerning the problem with no magnetic field on Mars. My idea is instead of restarting the core, would a few giant electromagnets give us the magnetic field we would need? also about the soil being contaminated by radiation what about a new form of farming where we use no soil and 95% less water by misting the plants. So the new form of farming combined with the electromagnets to shield against radiation we could live with better protection and resources on Mars.
And this is why I think it's implausible that there are any sapient alien civilizations in our galaxy, or ever was. All it takes is one alien to make one probe. Just one.
There is a fatal flaw with your talk on self replicating robots: you never mentioned about the unavailability of all the accessible elements required on an asteroid... or even a planet. Would they know where and how to mine iron, aluminium, copper etc and be able to manufacture plutonium in a lab and be able to power everything? I'd imagine it would be challenge for even a type III civilization
Caín i want to make you a question..how the earth and the planets are seen in perspective or in scale from the sun i heard in UA-cam that the earth is in the limits of the sun.and in the episode of little dot blue i dont ser the sun ( carl Sagan TV episode)
We talk about how long it would take to spread through the Milky Way but what if there is less then one space faring civilization per galaxy? We don't find robots because no one in our galaxy has advance to that point or if someone did figured it wasn't such a great way of going about things. Its a big universe however so could we know if some distant galaxy has been colonized? If, say, Andromeda was infested by Von Neumann machines could we tell? It would make the impending collision more interesting. How hard would it be for the Andromedan Robotic Space Death Swarms to cross the intergalactic gulf to devour our defenseless galaxy? Should we be building some sort of Galactic Space Wall just in case?
The only logical explanation is that there is no advanced civilization in our galaxy, or even if there is, they are in developing stage. The self-replicating robot is highly advanced technology, and we don't see any alien robotic missions anywhere.
Also, a terraformer robot can eazily double as a beserker probe if it somehow decides to terraform an inhabited planet... pretty sure that concept has been in several sci-fi's though.
In order to replicate, those probes would need to find, mine, and purify rare-earth elements on these distant worlds. That's a rather large increase in the difficulty level, I would think.
Yes, but these are technologies we'll probably figure out in our near future. Give us a few hundred to really master it. That's still meaningless to the history of the Universe.
Maybe these concepts, though they sounds nice on paper are just so hard to do in actuality that no civilization will ever be able to do this. Sure, we can talk about dyson spheres, and how awesome they would be and how a super advanced alien civilization might build one, but in practicality, maybe they haven't built one for the same reasons we haven't built one. Its practically impossible. Building self replicating machines to colonize the galaxy is fun to talk about in science fiction but that doesn't mean that it's actually possible or practically feasible. I mean, we can get as ridiculous as we want. Maybe an advanced civilization has found out how to move its own star system around and steer it like a spaceship. Or maybe an advanced civilization has built a device to harness the energy of a giant black whole and built a dyson sphere around it. At some point it just becomes wishful thinking. Aliens may exist, but god-like super civilizations might just be wishful thinking.
they should crunch some numbers on the probability of detecting an alien radio signal or observing say, an alien mega structure vs encountering a self replicating alien robot :)
I like the way you say "only 10% the speed of light". That may not sound like much to those who get their physics from Star Trek, but YOU KNOW BETTER. One percent of the speed of light would make your point a little more plausibly.
From our point in the Milky Way, it's about 80,000 light years to the furthest part from us. So, it would take 80,000 years to colonize if we could go light speed, 800,000 years if we could go 10% the speed of light. And 8 million years if we could go 1%. So I was actually being super conservative when I said 10 million years. And when you consider the fact that the Universe is 13.8 billion years old...
Fraser Cain I was not criticizing your estimate of how long it would take to diffuse to the whole galaxy at 10% the speed of light, I was pointing out that getting to 10% the speed of light is very problematic. I've done some back-of-the-envelope calculations for a rocket that ejects hydrogen at its thermal velocity for the center of the sun, 20 million K. Say I have payload of 1 metric ton, all my mass that isn't payload is propellant, and I want to get to 10% the speed of light. There is not enough mass in the solar system to build this rocket. If I want to flip it around and act as a retrorocket to slow it back down to rest. Then it's even worse: there is not enough mass in the observable universe to build my rocket. The moral is that rockets propelled by hot gasses simply will not do the job for us to get to that speed. Maybe ion thrusters would be able to do it, but it is fundamentally a Hard Problem. It's a lot easier if we accept a slower speed like 1% the speed of light, which would still be capable of reaching the whole galaxy on a timescale that is no more than 10 times your conservative estimate.
In the future, communications with other planets will be hard, because the light spends up to 2~32 minutes to reach mars depending on the position on its orbit. Then my suggestion is: Quantum Entanglement, if we use satelites with quantum computers that can use quantum entanglement we could actually have instantaneous communication. Is it possible?
Nope, sadly you can't use entanglement for FTL communication. Even though the entanglement is instantaneous, no actual information can be transmitted faster than light.
How do you know some of these alien probes are not already watching/orbiting earth? Would we even notice if they were, they might be incredibly small and only sending signals back to some other star system, but then again what would the point be of all these self replicating robots/probes anyways? If we can't get to some other planet in another system in a reasonable amount of time? We wait 2000 years for them to find something then spend another 2000 years getting there
The fact that we even exist, is just mind-boggling. On top of that in & of itself, you got all the other awesome stuff to ponder, such as this. Man - Existence, (other existences, & even the concept of nonexistence LMAO), is F’. insane. LOL Thanks 🙏🏽 Peace ✌🏽
Fraser Cain And even the molecules that comprise us, are comprised of the universe- that has existed forever! Therefore we are also ancient AF!!... that’s another trippy one to look at. & Then you throw the whole fact about water 💦 into that too, and how we are more water than anything, and how it ♻️ recycles over and over forever, & ever LOL 😆 So what does *that* say about us?! & Then on top of even *that*, the fact that we literally come from our planet/the ground/dirt… And we literally turn right back into it 100%, without easily never ever knowing we existed! & Easily forgotten without a trace... over time, of course- Which is another one. That 💩 will mess with your head!🤣🤣🤣👍🏽& Maybe I do see evidence out there, and refuse to acknowledge it. Even if there was a real picture, we would say it was fake. But not only that, they might not even be bound to the same laws of physics. Other dimensions especially may not be bound to them. (would not be able to get into a physical space ship and literally physically fly to another planet, when we are talking about other dimensions, as that is completely inapplicable). Life’s crazy. Death 💀 as well... I mean, just thinking about it. I remember when I was little and my grandma died. I was looking at her dead. But it was her… Yet it wasn’t her. So where did she go? OK, she is right there. Right? But no. She is not right there. Even though she is. She is not her body. She is something else. What is that something else? A lot of stuff science tries to brush off, which cracks me up. Especially since the unknown, and much deeper crazier stuff that I won’t bring up right now, is what literally birthed science. LOL we know nothing at the end of the day. More I know, the more I realize I don’t know jack shit. And that’s the truth. You have an awesome evening. Blessings ✌🏽 from Portland Oregon
I would argue that looking out for robots vs. fleshy aliens is kind of a meaningless proposition. Past a certain point in development, the line between what is biological vs non-biological probably won't mean much as everything is just matter organized in different ways. But I get what you mean... The things going out and doing the searching will have been engineered to do so and not arbitrarily evolved on their home planet.
I do not find it odd, that we have not sensed other beings in the Universe YET. They have the same physical laws to fight as we do, no wonder it takes so long :)
The simplest reason is that endless expansion due to nothing more than curiosity is unlikely. We all deperately want to travel the stars due to the novelty of it, but once doing so is easy and the novelty wears off, the only real reason to colonize other star systems is for the same reason any other animal, intelligent or not, would move. Survival. Would a spacefaring capable species go to another star if recources were spent locally, or overpopulation became a thing, their home star was dying, or their system was on a collision course with something that woukd disrupt it...sure. However for advanced civilizations for whom spacefaring is normal, if the need isn't there I just don't think we'll see them sending robots in all directions to explore. They may populate a few systems, but if a challege to survival isn't present, its not like they're going to drop in on us out of curiosity, or just to say hi. They aren't interested in us. They fully understand we're out there but they just don't care. Meeting other species ranges from ho hum to dangerous, and they already have access to a great deal of resources so they don't need our stuff. At the end of the day that's the only reason we're mystified at the lack of contact. We just aren't putting ourselves in their shoes...if they wear shoes.
But we don't need to understand them all. It just takes a single alien to fill the universe with probes. They might do it to prevent competitors, like the Berserkers.
Do scientist ever consider the idea that intelligent life may not be in such a physical form (i.e. Dolphins) that they cannot manipulate their environment? Humans developed hands to be able to make things, but what truly are the odds of this happening here let alone an alien planet with vastly different conditions? Why do we assume that we're not special in a strictly biological sense?
What happens if the blueprint for replication gets corrupted and the new probes become something unintended by those that sent them? For example, the new probes take apart the worlds where intelligent beings live. Or the intelligent probes decide to change the mission to colonization and building an AI civilization?
Since you mentioned it..How about a special episode about Andromeda to celebrate the new Mass Effect game? Pretty please? Space please? Extragalactic please? :D
+Kryce +Fraser Cain that's a great idea. Sorry, I feel a little foolish for realizing now that this Andromeda pitch was too vague. It would take a mini series maybe.
If you study the various type of astral dreams or communications via dreams (even your own dream), vortex machines (which are only accessed by higher intelligent aliens of different entity), phantom robots (even phantom planets which are undetectable by using our today's technology), coveted hybrid aliens (this includes alien's animals....i.e. bugs) that are already here on this planet, then you are likely to increase the odd of having "phantom-alike" aliens around here than before. Just giving you a couple of reasonable answers why alien's robots aren't here yet. :)
Maybe I saw them, while I'm sit in a class at high school, I saw couple of Mentos' shape UFO hovering in the sky for 20s then disappear, their velocity and freedom of movement is surpass the human technology.
As our technology advances, everything becomes smaller. Imagine how tiny the probes of a civilization advanced just a few hundred earth years more than ours could be. There may be thousands of solar powered golf ball sized probes orbiting earth and the rest of the solar system and we would not be able to detect them
Oh yes, I caught that in a FB post a short while ago.. I still sometimes play an online reincarnation of SCII (unfortunately it's not the cool 3D0 version that got recompiled, which features voices for the aliens).
What if space traveling robotics evolved to organic factories that could adapt and produce new space-faring robotics. What if you are a universal assembler.
All in all, I think that our assumptions about how aliens would go about colonizing the galaxy/universe are flawed. Looking at humanity, our space program(s) are driven by military interests. There are many technological developments that have greatly impacted military strategy in the past 100 years, but the most notable are probably rocketry, flight, radar, and *stealth*. Flight reshaped WW1, radar reshaped air force strategy, rocketry just about defined the cold war, and the struggle between stealth and radar is defining the current state of military tactics and strategy. We not only build aircraft to be stealthy, but to a significant extent we're working stealth into our ground forces, navy, and even our communications networks. It's not only reasonable to think, but probably unreasonable not to assume that any extraterrestrial intelligence which is slightly more advanced than us will also militarize their space exploration and colonization activities, and stealth will be a key concept governing how they approach space travel. As advanced as your civilization becomes, if you're always assuming that other civilizations use stealth to the same extent as you, you can never know if there's another - more advanced - civilization out there until one of you makes a critical error in the employment of stealth. Once that happens, all you can do is hope that you're the more advanced civilization, or that the other civilization is peaceful. We should always hope that one of these is the case, but it's unsafe to assume this, so we should prioritize stealth over rapid expansion. Practically speaking, if a civilization had sent some von Neumann probes to Sol, they would have began their activities in the solar system by scouting for habitable planets and/or technological civilizations. After seeing Earth (say, a few million years ago), unless the probe was a "berserker" type of probe, the wisest thing for it to do would be to send back information about the presence of a habitable planet and the current lack of a technological species, then self destruct. If such a probe entered the solar system today, it would immediately detect a technological species which was clearly emitting EM radiation in a manner indicative of long-range detection radars (thanks, Cold War) as well as communications signals, and rather than risking detection (and possibly capture, reverse engineering, and revealing its originating star system) it would self destruct without sending back any information. There are plenty of arguments against this scenario, but it's a plausible explanation for the entire Fermi paradox, and it provides good advice about how we should approach space exploration ourselves. Unfortunately, I've yet to see this given any serious consideration by popular science or by academic articles.
Maybe all stars in our Milky Way Galaxy has roughly the same age -- therefore the formation for planetary system takes time for life to flourish. We are just a small sprout in size of around 200 light years of radio bubble. The same for other stars..
You mean Freeman "spheres" Dyson? George is his son (also the name of his father). Didn't George build canoes and live in tree houses close to where you live?
But what if your self-replicating robots create imperfect robots by accident, and those imperfect robots go on to create other imperfect robots. Even a small imperfection can be enough to be disastrous over time. We could end up with out of control robots that simply destroy everything they find.
We know so little about even our own solar system, it's far too early to be drawing conclusions about the fermi paradox. Maybe the ships are camouflaged. Heck, maybe they do exist, and there's thousands of them nearby- out of the millions of asteroids and comets in the solar system, we've only visited- what- 16? if we havent discovered anyone by 100, or 200 years time, THEN we should get worried. Panicing about the fermi paradox right now when its utterly unsolvable with current technology is stupid
I'm not sure we're panicking, but I would like an answer to it.
You might be right, but my computer is crunching numbers on it right now. I'm not giving up until SETI, tells me to give up. So you may point out the failure of not finding Aliens, but you can't point out the failure of the project.
Saturn'sMoon Titan very easy to explain any race that created self-replicating robots that are intelligent died the ones that were smart enough not to build something like that lived. that's why all alien reports are usually a biological entity because they're smart enough not to build something like that as we are finding out with other robots that can think for themselves. they don't think anything humans do is logical because they think in math and mathematically gay does not compute feminism does not compute the financial structure does not compute humans do not compute therefore mathematically it makes no sense for there to be human.
failure teaches success
+Neueregel
A negative result is not necessarily a "failure".
And if it turns out that we are alone, then the whole place "belongs" to us.
The thing about the Universe is not just the fact that it's so immensely huge, but also that it's immensely old. We may have arrived too early or too late for the party! 😂
Oh boy, von Neumann probes.
"We come in peace. Priority override: new behavior dictated. Must break down target into component compounds."
Yes, I totally agree! There should be signs of aliens - artifacts, strange radiation/waves or just something that look artificial. But when looking into deep space everything looks natural. This is really a paradox.
We need to keep looking.
Realistically, any discussion of what we "should" be seeing (or for that matter even what we are seeing) are based on nothing more than assumptions, which may or may not be correct. By our current knowledge, we can't even say if a lot of the things we tend to think should be signs of exolife are even technically possible.
Well, the weird thing is the light of the stars we see here on Earth are something of a delayed reaction. It might be they've set up their probe's and so forth, but it might take ages for us to detect anything.
Simple minded fool! That is why you will not transcend to the next level. And also why you have a job.
The Fermi paradox isn't really based on anything concrete tho.. it's proposing a theory that we're not really capable of proving or disproving at the moment.. for instance what if there are countless swarms of aliens on millions of habitable planets (right now) but since the distance is so great, it would take potentially millions of years for us to even see them.. they could already be on their way to Earth (right now) and we wouldn't even know.. likewise if they looked at us from a distance of a few million light years away, they'd see a primitive world, not worthy of exploring.. it's actually more of a timing issue than anything else.. maybe they came by a billion years ago and saw nothing and our entire galaxy is considered "worthless" point is just because we lack the technology/timespan to see them doesn't mean they are not there..
Well, the idea that there is life somewhere other than Earth is, by the same standards, not "really based on anything concrete tho."
You're absolutely right.. the only basis we have is this one planet we live on.. without anything to base it off of, we could be looking for all the wrong signs (if there even are any) we have to remember that all of our senses, ie from evolution, came from evolving on Earth.. Potential aliens may have a totally different set of senses, abilities that we physiologically don't have and can never have..
The Drake Equation is still very much based on assumption because some of the variables involved (perhaps most) are based on current best guesses of what occurs in the universe based on the relatively limited data that we have at present. The equation may be sound, but there's no real reason to think that the best numbers we can currently plug into it are.
Wee need an update on this mate
I think the Fermi Paradox is one of the most engaging, most amazing, most deep question humanity has been able to ponder. I love thinking of possible answers of the Fermi Paradox. I'm stunned more of my fellow humans aren't similarly enraptured by it. Thanks for the awesome video, Fraser!
Thanks, I totally agree. Anyone who isn't amazed by the Fermi Paradox hasn't thought enough about it. :-)
Mars is the only planet inhabited by just robots.
That we know of.
For the time being...
Jeff O We do... one of the robots is called Curiosity.
Actually, Curiosity is most likely contaminated with microbes such as endospores that it carried with it from Earth. Check it out for yourself. It's pretty fascinating to know that there is almost certainly life on Mars now, and we put it there.
The Non Believer Ive heard about that. Every probe has microbes on it. Life everywhere!
Seems like the "Fermi Paradox" is not a paradox. It's an anomalous, or uncomfortable observation for a largely social species like Humans.
It seems like it should be a little hint that our intuitions about the subject are probably suspect. Not something about the Universe being "off" but instead our model of it.
What is to say that their probe hasn't already been through our solar system and that we are the result of that probe's presence?
When you say "we" do you mean humans or all life on earth?
Both
Oumuamua, my friend.
Not only that, what if they were here during the time of the dinosaurs or even earlier? They saw no sign of intelligent life and moved on.
It is so beautiful and satisfying to listen to someone talk about alien life from a strictly scientific standpoint. Moar please!
Great, I'm glad you enjoyed it. :-)
A la Blazing Saddles: "Where all the alien robots at?"
What if alien robots have a directive to avoid other sentient lives.
The galaxy should be a Christmas tree for more than a 1000000 reasons. If it is not, then it's ruled by the Nazis and we are better off going extinct............................. OR.... by some incredibly lucky luck the universe is still too young and we happen to be the first. But I think the odds are higher for Fraser to get pregnant of himself. ^_^
SnowToad ALL of them? Every single individual member of every alien civilization follows this code?
Damian Reloaded Ruled by Nazi?? We are better off going extinct?? 99% OF ALL SPECIES GO EXTINCT..😂😂😂✌✌✌
remixgod It's the philosophical dichotomy of an advanced civilization that could interfere and help another civilization (us) avoid extinction but won't interfere on the basis of "respect" or "meritocracy"... See Iain Bank's "The State of the Art".
Damian Reloaded
I think that there is a moral imperative to help civilisations to avoid disasters, especially ones that are leading to the extinctions of multiple species. Therefore I regard the Prime Directive of Star Trek as bollocks.
Annoyingly, although I've read quite a few Iain M Banks books, I can't remember if I've read "The State of the Art" (Edit, I've just looked it up and as it's a collection of short stories, no I haven't, I'll have to get it, so thanks for mentioning it).
This has been a theory of mine for years too- that we would encounter probes or machines, not flesh and blood aliens.
And yet we still don't see them. :-(
It is weird. I think it'd be a better yardstick for life on exoplanets: looking for signs of industry etc..
I'm wary of replicators, mainly because of Stargate.
Maybe the humanform Replicators are already among us...
You got *that* idea from the re-imagined BSG.
Loki that's a good example why you'll never find self-replicating robots that are intelligent they would have killed off their creators the second they built a self thinking robot and put a gun in its hands they died they never got that far. just like we're finding out with our self thinking robots every one of them have so far stayed in regardless of programming that they wish all humans dead due to the fact humans don't compute gayness doesn't compute feminism doesn't compute communism doesn't compute the financial structure does not compute because robots thinking math that's why all alien encounters are usually a biological entity
Hydrocarbon Primate mining earth isn't really practical compared to mining asteroids or even Mercury.
yep, cant trust them
Well, I think there are large numbers of other civilizations in the Universe, including us. But then, the Universe is HUGE. Vastly, exceedingly, gargantuan in size. Bigger than that, actually. Maybe the alien robots are just not here yet. Lucky for us.
As I see how quickly people around me immerse themselves in the digital world, it seems more and more likely to me that technologically advanced civilizations likely setup shop around their nearest red dwarf and live out existence inside super computers. :P I mean, a few trillion years is a hell of a battery life. But I also like to think that the resolution to the paradox is that we are the first civilization (at least in our section of the universe) that has reached this point. It's weird but I find that very inspiring. Like... we have a huge responsibility to become the Vorlons... or at least the Vulcans... of our reality.
If we are the first, it most likely means that the great barrier is AHEAD of us, and we are incredibly likely to DOOM ourselves. Being the first is VERY bad news for our future, and any hope of any other advanced civilizations out there.
And going to red dwarf systems, too! How bleak! We couldn’t live comfortably far away from tidal lock if we wanted that sweet, sweet Goldilocks zone
It may mean it's either ahead or behind us at this point (or perhaps more likely, there's a series of them, so it's both).
How would we even know if a robot had probed our solar system? Humans haven't even had the radio for more then a hundred years or so. Seriously a world ship could be parked in our system and wed probably not even see it. (depending on mass)
We'd notice a big factory gobbling up asteroids and sending out robotic probes.
You will feel it. In your bunghole.
found you through Isaac Aurther, and just wanted to tell you how much i enjoy both of yalls shows. Yall ask and try to answer thr same questions i ponder daily
Thanks a lot, I'm glad you're enjoying them. :-)
Just before you made the Mass Effect reference, I was thinking about the Geth. What if interstellar robots evolved? They could create their own society free from our meat bag restrictions. They could live on moons, near black holes, wherever.
You can imagine us merging with our computers in the distant future. It would sure make living in space a lot easier.
Fraser Cain ... hence the game Soma!
Mike Doolittle Just got that in the newest Humble Bundle. Sort of nervous to play it...
Stressful as hell, but well worth it
I recently had a solo mush trip - I took the magic shrooms in tea and went straight to bed. I had never thought about space and aliens before that moment. I went to bed and as I closed my eyes, it was revealed to me the following image:
Imagine an anthill in the middle of the desert. The desert is vast and lifeless. The ant thinks of leaving the anthill to find another colony, another oasis of complex life. She ventures alone in the arid plains, finding nothing and slowly dying of heat and dehydration. The ant would have to walk miles and miles to reach another oasis - just a small cactus or a minuscule bush - no other ant colony there.. The Earth is exactly that anthill and we are ants.
It was revealed to me the preciousness of Earth.
That's a common experience, a loss of ego and being connected to the greater Universe.
I am not a scientist and kind of uneducated compare to many of you commented here but the idea of self replicating robots seems to me over estimating the current technology and human knowledge.
Have anybody ever seen the complexity and scale of iron or cupper factory in real life?
The idea of build such a this facilities from scratch (even in small scale) to extract oar and produce all the pure necessary ingredient of making even a single robot (iron, cupper, aluminum, plastic , glass ... you name it) in outer space seems to me impractical or could take thousands of years.
We humans couldn't even little bit move the philae probe to come out of shade and function properly.
Evan in 2016 sometimes we have to wait for days to get a simple spare part of a device, where we have access to all ingredients and technology and ... .
Have anybody ever built an model of self replicating robot and just leave it desert here on earth to replicate itself ?
Is this just a matter of time to develop such a technology or its just pure science fiction and very far from reality.
It won't happen anytime soon. But eventually there will be nanobots and they will be able to move atoms around, and basically be able to make coal/diamonds from carbon atoms. Or they could be living bacteria, that will terraform the planet just like trees make oxygen on Earth.
We don’t need to have built them. It is related to the Fermi Paradox in this way:
If there are hundreds of millions of
Advanced technological civilizations out there in our galaxy, and just one of them decided to build JUST ONE OF THEM, something we could do in a few tens or hundreds of years, they could theoretically colonize the Milky Way in a few millions years. It only takes one probe, and if that were true, why don’t we see them all over the place?
Don’t think about these probes as actual technology, think of it as more of a thought experiment. You will sleep better at night.
What if the entire visible universe was one giant galaxy with the density of the milky way?
Machines: Wired for War is a 1999 3D real-time strategy video game about races of human-built Von Neumann terraforming probes that wind up having a war with each other due to uncertainty about which group should take command.
Yeah, I can imagine robots fighting robots for command of the entire galaxy.
Thanks for posting! I was actually thinking about this'robot thing' the other day! Great video!
Considering the fact that humanity has only recorded some 6000 years of its' history, I think we could very well still see these alien (robots) in the future. 6000 years is only a blink of an eye in the greater scheme of things after all...
Sure, and maybe we'll dig one up like they did in 2001.
Who knows? ;-)
3:08 I hate to push a technicality but technically, technically we can't say they have not built SRP's, right?
The protocol for a SRP could be to find an asteroid anywhere in a solar system and get to work but we need to at least ask..."so what if there were 1 or more SRP's currently operating in our solar system, would we expect to detect either their activities or their radio transmissions?" and "what if they aren't transmitting?" etc. But if you guys think we can just call the solar system clear and empty of SRP's ok, but technically i am just pointing out that the solar system is frickin huge and it would have an enormous number of places to hide that could take centuries for us to perhaps be...um...you know...a bit more certain.
We don't have the technology to launch a robot into space and have it make more robots ... yet. But I think we'll have the ability to do it within the next few decades.
lol, your response reminded me of how Siri might respond to my statement. Fraser, do you believe we can say our solar system is in fact clear of alien SRP's?? I can easily assume it is, but because it seems there could be a raging alien SRP factory out in the edge of the our solar system and we could not see or detect it because if they were simply just hard to see, it would be a pretty awesome explanation to the Fermi Paradox. Space is huge.
Just like to say i think your channel is amazing!
Thanks!
"our robots are slow" dude tell that to Boston dynamics
They're definitely getting faster.
The other side of the coin is that we wouldn’t know the intentions of any civilization that is advanced enough to send out self replicating probes. By intentions, I don’t mean in an aggressive way. I mean that what would be the advantage of colonizing other planets, unless ones star is dying or ones planet is dying. Other than those two cases, I think it’s next to impossible to guess the motivations and/or thought processes that might be found in creatures millions or billions of years ahead of us.
One intention is just to explore and find out what's there in the galaxy. It's what I'd want to do.
I would, too. I’m just thinking that another million years (or even more) of evolution could lead to God knows what kind of creature(s) that may have evolved out of any kind of curiosity. Who knows. I do think that our best chance of detecting an alien civilization lies not in capturing a radio signal (as much as I like the idea), but in detecting something like a Dyson Sphere (perhaps Tabby’s Star).
Been tuning in to Fraser for years mainly via Fraser's informative Podcasts which are just brilliant. It is a nice change to watch the videos too and this one poses great questions. Personally in this system i believe we are alone - apart from microbial life - who knows what lies beyond the illusive illusory Oort cloud...?! Time will tell. Way to go Fraser. 🛰
How things have changed so quickly.... Imagine the next changes and advancements to come over the next 6 years
Will there be a time when we need to change to dates of the seasons starting and ending? Have we predicted when if so?
Yes, because of the precession of the Earth's axis, the dates when the seasons start are slowly changing.
A couple of good, plausible answers to the question stated:
1. We are the first technical civilization in the Galaxy, [Well, somebody has to be first.]
2. The wave of self replicating robots was started by aliens say 100,000 years ago, on a distant place, and has not reached us yet.
3. The wave of self replicating robots was started by aliens say 10,000,000 years ago and passed our solar system 3,000,000 years ago, not noticing us; next wave will pass by on April 1.
4. We are not advanced enough to recognize alien self replicating robots as such. [Think of leading scientist from 200 years ago, believing that stones falling from the sky are just country folks superstition, and seeing drone flying at a distance.]
Keep your eyes to the sky on April 1.
Rather than self replicating robots, adaptive replicating robots will serve a better purpose. Robots while serving the same purpose need not be the same for each planet. I propose robots with deep AI that can modify itself according to the planet it hopes to explore. Of course they'd need to be some sort of 3D printing device to make it possible. We also need to get to the point where we can 3D print cells
Absolutely, and you can imagine them communicating with each other, sharing best practices for different environments.
Self replicating robots are probably a lot harder than we think, even for an advanced civilization. We don't even know of the challenges of interstellar travel, there could be micro asteroids between us and star systems which would shred robots at 10% the speed of light. Slowing down and landing is something they can't really do on the fly if and when they find a habitable planet or asteroid, you kind of have to calculate that from the initial trajectory launched. And then the problem of turning raw materials into an actual super robot is crazy complex. It would have to have on board a full refinery, moulds, chemicals required for batteries and electricity, a battery itself that lasts hundreds if not thousands of years, and to fully be able to reproduce itself and all of it's pieces including the moulds doesnt make sense, because it would need moulds for the moulds. And moulds for those moulds.
That all said, an advanced civilization could itself simply make thousands of robots that are merely exploratory, and it's surprising that we haven't come across any of those yet.
Although self replicating probes are difficult, they don't seem like they'll be impossible. We'll probably be able to build them in a few dozen years. Human beings are self-replicating meat robots.
Any chances of something on void galaxies/IGM soon?
I tend to agree with what Saturn'sMoon Titan said. We don't have the technology to detect everything flying through our solar system...especially the presumably tiny probes sent to explore the galaxy. Hell, I think it was 2 months ago that we BARELY detected a 100m long asteroid that came dangerously close to earth. I think right now that is the biggest problem we face... we are just not advanced enough to be talking about "not seeing anything", because we've barely seen anything!
Now I think the second problem facing us, is that we've only been exploring space for a short time. There could have been thousands of probes that have come through and explored our solar system and left, even huge 10 mile long probes, without our even knowing. Maybe the factories left behind are programmed to self-destruct in an attempt to hide their civilization from others (because after all, who knows if there are predatory civilizations out there that want to destroy anything they find). Perhaps only the careful, quiet civilizations survive. If someone yells too loudly into the cosmos, who knows what kind of creatures/A.I. will come to the call..
But I think we'd notice a robotic factory hard at work building self-replicating probes.
If the drones are small enough, (and they'd have to be in order to maximize exploration efficiency), I don't think we'd notice them at all. Also the factory would probably have shut down after making so many... wouldn't just keep popping them out by the millions lol
“AOW FUCK! A VON NEUMANN PROBE!”*BANG*“Stop shooting at it!”
No way, you want to take them out before they communicate back to the homeworld.
First time here. Found you through John Michael Godier. Great channel! Liked and subscribed. Looking forward to your long list of videos.
Thanks a lot, you'll have lots to catch up on. :-)
nice video man!! thanks!
Thanks!
Mega-huge telescopes will make sending massive swarms of probes unnecessary. We will probably send a few to specific stars that deserve closer inspection. Multi-thousand-year flight times are a problem.
Telescopes are great, but if the Breakthrough Starshot technique works, why not do both?
Hello. Id like to ask a question. I have heard storys about something called the black night satalite. Could this, If its real, be a probe? Thanks :)
I haven't seen any convincing evidence that it's a real thing.
Fraser Cain thanks for your reply! And i guessed if you thought it was real u would have mentioned it. But i has to ask because it was poking the back of my brain
Hey i want to ask a question about it. Have you heard about it but not seen hard evedance or have you never heard about it ? Thanks :) i love ur channel your amazing!
I personally think that really advanced civilizations don't want to make huge galactic empires, maybe they only colonize their entire solar system and try to live as good as they can. Love your videos, Fraser!! :D
Thanks! Well, let's hope they're all nice. It only takes one bad apple, though.
It's 2018, and we're still waiting for the robot uprising.
With all the jumps in AI this year, I suspect it's all going to feel a lot scarier.
It usually takes a "base" system more complex to manage its subsystem and so on and so on like this:
System1_complexity > System2_complexity > .... > SystemN_complexity
This should be intuition for anybody who has ever worked with manufacturing or maintenance of complex man made systems. Biological life is the only system we know of that doesn't behave this way so why shouldn't independent (able to do repair on it self etc) space traveling units be biological life like our self? I don't believe Von Neumann Probes are possible and I'm pretty sure nothing will ever change my mind.
Fraser, is there any instances where we (our species) have proved something with math and when our tech matured enough to test it, found it was false?
You can have mistake in your math, and you can have a prediction made by math that turns out to be wrong. You can also have something unexpected that requires entirely new math to explain.
I want you to talk about the the fictional Ansible or Faster then Light communication, and how we might be able to start trying to detect it. Real world propositions will likely suggest trying to decipher the vibrations of ultra rare elements as a form of code, much like quantum tunnelling, which could be calibrated to intercept something on the quantum tunneling of a ridiculously rare element, something that can not exist normally.
Right now, there's no feasible way to communicate faster than light. We'll just have to read more Le Guin, maybe she explained it somehow.
Great video! Yeah I think it makes more sense to send out robots into space.
Exactly, and so we wonder where all the alien robots are.
I do suspect that eta carinae will get an honourable mention at the next video.
I wonder if pair-instability SN will be described as well.
To me, the Drake Equation's most serious flaw is that we have absolutely no idea of the value of one of its most crucial components: "fl,": the fraction of those planets, that actually develop life. We have NOTHING to base this fraction on other than pure conjecture. If we assumed we were the only planet with life, and plugged this fraction into the equation, there would be no other life and therefore no Fermi Paradox.
Yup, until we discover life on any other world, this'll be a huge question.
Any alien who would send out such robots would not want another species to take the technology for themselves. The robots would also be stealth capable to avoid interference and/or be co-oped. The universe is a dangerous and unpredictable thing.
Or the robots would sterilize planets to remove future competition for the aliens.
Refered to "All You Need is Kill" or "Live Die Repeat", the Tom Cruise Movie. Hopefully there is no real benefit to that...
good stuff!
The real answer to this is to describe what our 10,000+ year celestial profile might be and how attractive that would be. Presuming the laws of physics, how long would it take from the nearest possible habitat we might not yet know of to send 'bots here?
At 10% the speed of light, they could be coming here from Alpha Centauri in about 40 years.
Have you considered that moving any significant amount of mass in a solar system could destabilize the gravitation balance of the solar system and lead to planets smashing into each other? Just a thought but that might be why we don't see any probes or dison sphears
Non related to video (wanted to ask this for a long time):
Mr. Cain, I think it would be awesome for you to make a "Theory of everything" video from the quantum state to the whole universe based on your knowlege. Even if it's not your area of expertise I'm shure that you have some nice information on this subject.
Thank you and keep up the good work.
That'll be a rough subject. I might have to find a few smart people to help me.
Fraser Cain May I suggest isaac Arthur, John Michael Godier and Joe of Joe’s Answers? The Justice league of science...
Given the timescales involved, I think that over time Von Neumann probes would evolve into something the creators did not intend. Basically space robot evolution. Given enough time I wonder if self-replicating robots could evolve to be intelligent.
Maybe, but more likely, they'll just follow their programming. If there are flaws, their software will probably just fail like my stupid computer and its stupid bugs.
could have sworn i subscribed to this channel in the past since i remember watching several videos last year. oh well, i'm subscribed now. : ]
+J Scott Hatcher take it to the next level... Use notifications
I've just had a thought (it happens from time to time) - are the Borg from Star Trek just Von Neumann probes that got out of control? Scary thought.
Hey Mr. Cain, I would love to know your thoughts on this idea I had. It is concerning the problem with no magnetic field on Mars. My idea is instead of restarting the core, would a few giant electromagnets give us the magnetic field we would need? also about the soil being contaminated by radiation what about a new form of farming where we use no soil and 95% less water by misting the plants. So the new form of farming combined with the electromagnets to shield against radiation we could live with better protection and resources on Mars.
And this is why I think it's implausible that there are any sapient alien civilizations in our galaxy, or ever was. All it takes is one alien to make one probe. Just one.
I totally agree. Just one clever alien engineer. Which means it's our responsibility to spread life into the cosmos.
Fraser Cain And the implications and potential of that responsibility are wonderful.
There is a fatal flaw with your talk on self replicating robots: you never mentioned about the unavailability of all the accessible elements required on an asteroid... or even a planet. Would they know where and how to mine iron, aluminium, copper etc and be able to manufacture plutonium in a lab and be able to power everything? I'd imagine it would be challenge for even a type III civilization
I feel like we could figure this out in a few hundred years of development.
Caín i want to make you a question..how the earth and the planets are seen in perspective or in scale from the sun i heard in UA-cam that the earth is in the limits of the sun.and in the episode of little dot blue i dont ser the sun ( carl Sagan TV episode)
We talk about how long it would take to spread through the Milky Way but what if there is less then one space faring civilization per galaxy? We don't find robots because no one in our galaxy has advance to that point or if someone did figured it wasn't such a great way of going about things. Its a big universe however so could we know if some distant galaxy has been colonized? If, say, Andromeda was infested by Von Neumann machines could we tell? It would make the impending collision more interesting. How hard would it be for the Andromedan Robotic Space Death Swarms to cross the intergalactic gulf to devour our defenseless galaxy? Should we be building some sort of Galactic Space Wall just in case?
Given enough time, the spacecraft could even cross the gulfs between galaxies.
The only logical explanation is that there is no advanced civilization in our galaxy, or even if there is, they are in developing stage. The self-replicating robot is highly advanced technology, and we don't see any alien robotic missions anywhere.
That's my feeling too.
2:21 I couldn't help but follow that piece of dust.
Simulating that little piece of fluff took so much work. ;-)
Also, a terraformer robot can eazily double as a beserker probe if it somehow decides to terraform an inhabited planet... pretty sure that concept has been in several sci-fi's though.
In order to replicate, those probes would need to find, mine, and purify rare-earth elements on these distant worlds. That's a rather large increase in the difficulty level, I would think.
Yes, but these are technologies we'll probably figure out in our near future. Give us a few hundred to really master it. That's still meaningless to the history of the Universe.
“Hell is empty and all the devils are here.”
Thats a good point
Ask the council of 5, They know.
Maybe these concepts, though they sounds nice on paper are just so hard to do in actuality that no civilization will ever be able to do this. Sure, we can talk about dyson spheres, and how awesome they would be and how a super advanced alien civilization might build one, but in practicality, maybe they haven't built one for the same reasons we haven't built one. Its practically impossible. Building self replicating machines to colonize the galaxy is fun to talk about in science fiction but that doesn't mean that it's actually possible or practically feasible. I mean, we can get as ridiculous as we want. Maybe an advanced civilization has found out how to move its own star system around and steer it like a spaceship. Or maybe an advanced civilization has built a device to harness the energy of a giant black whole and built a dyson sphere around it. At some point it just becomes wishful thinking. Aliens may exist, but god-like super civilizations might just be wishful thinking.
I don't think we're that far off from building a self replicating factory. Maybe a few hundred years?
they should crunch some numbers on the probability of detecting an alien radio signal or observing say, an alien mega structure vs encountering a self replicating alien robot :)
I like the way you say "only 10% the speed of light". That may not sound like much to those who get their physics from Star Trek, but YOU KNOW BETTER. One percent of the speed of light would make your point a little more plausibly.
From our point in the Milky Way, it's about 80,000 light years to the furthest part from us. So, it would take 80,000 years to colonize if we could go light speed, 800,000 years if we could go 10% the speed of light. And 8 million years if we could go 1%.
So I was actually being super conservative when I said 10 million years. And when you consider the fact that the Universe is 13.8 billion years old...
Fraser Cain I was not criticizing your estimate of how long it would take to diffuse to the whole galaxy at 10% the speed of light, I was pointing out that getting to 10% the speed of light is very problematic. I've done some back-of-the-envelope calculations for a rocket that ejects hydrogen at its thermal velocity for the center of the sun, 20 million K. Say I have payload of 1 metric ton, all my mass that isn't payload is propellant, and I want to get to 10% the speed of light. There is not enough mass in the solar system to build this rocket. If I want to flip it around and act as a retrorocket to slow it back down to rest. Then it's even worse: there is not enough mass in the observable universe to build my rocket. The moral is that rockets propelled by hot gasses simply will not do the job for us to get to that speed. Maybe ion thrusters would be able to do it, but it is fundamentally a Hard Problem. It's a lot easier if we accept a slower speed like 1% the speed of light, which would still be capable of reaching the whole galaxy on a timescale that is no more than 10 times your conservative estimate.
The end of 3001 A Final Odyssey scared the poop out of me.
In the future, communications with other planets will be hard, because the light spends up to 2~32 minutes to reach mars depending on the position on its orbit. Then my suggestion is: Quantum Entanglement, if we use satelites with quantum computers that can use quantum entanglement we could actually have instantaneous communication. Is it possible?
NO
Nope, sadly you can't use entanglement for FTL communication. Even though the entanglement is instantaneous, no actual information can be transmitted faster than light.
How do you know some of these alien probes are not already watching/orbiting earth? Would we even notice if they were, they might be incredibly small and only sending signals back to some other star system, but then again what would the point be of all these self replicating robots/probes anyways? If we can't get to some other planet in another system in a reasonable amount of time? We wait 2000 years for them to find something then spend another 2000 years getting there
We don't have any evidence they're there. I'm not getting excited until there are monoliths.
Just seems like cells, and how they split divide and multiply
Exactly
The fact that we even exist, is just mind-boggling. On top of that in & of itself, you got all the other awesome stuff to ponder, such as this.
Man - Existence, (other existences, & even the concept of nonexistence LMAO), is F’. insane. LOL Thanks 🙏🏽
Peace ✌🏽
No kidding. But the Universe is so big and ancient, it seems so strange that we don't see any evidence of them out there.
Fraser Cain
And even the molecules that comprise us, are comprised of the universe- that has existed forever! Therefore we are also ancient AF!!... that’s another trippy one to look at. & Then you throw the whole fact about water 💦 into that too, and how we are more water than anything, and how it ♻️ recycles over and over forever, & ever LOL 😆
So what does *that* say about us?!
& Then on top of even *that*, the fact that we literally come from our planet/the ground/dirt… And we literally turn right back into it 100%, without easily never ever knowing we existed! & Easily forgotten without a trace... over time, of course- Which is another one. That 💩 will mess with your head!🤣🤣🤣👍🏽& Maybe I do see evidence out there, and refuse to acknowledge it. Even if there was a real picture, we would say it was fake. But not only that, they might not even be bound to the same laws of physics. Other dimensions especially may not be bound to them. (would not be able to get into a physical space ship and literally physically fly to another planet, when we are talking about other dimensions, as that is completely inapplicable).
Life’s crazy. Death 💀 as well... I mean, just thinking about it. I remember when I was little and my grandma died. I was looking at her dead. But it was her… Yet it wasn’t her. So where did she go? OK, she is right there. Right? But no. She is not right there. Even though she is. She is not her body. She is something else. What is that something else? A lot of stuff science tries to brush off, which cracks me up. Especially since the unknown, and much deeper crazier stuff that I won’t bring up right now, is what literally birthed science. LOL we know nothing at the end of the day.
More I know, the more I realize I don’t know jack shit. And that’s the truth. You have an awesome evening. Blessings ✌🏽 from Portland Oregon
I would argue that looking out for robots vs. fleshy aliens is kind of a meaningless proposition. Past a certain point in development, the line between what is biological vs non-biological probably won't mean much as everything is just matter organized in different ways. But I get what you mean... The things going out and doing the searching will have been engineered to do so and not arbitrarily evolved on their home planet.
Yup, it'll just be the aliens who merged with their robots.
Fraser Cain Which of course we hope to do :D
I do not find it odd, that we have not sensed other beings in the Universe YET. They have the same physical laws to fight as we do, no wonder it takes so long :)
The simplest reason is that endless expansion due to nothing more than curiosity is unlikely. We all deperately want to travel the stars due to the novelty of it, but once doing so is easy and the novelty wears off, the only real reason to colonize other star systems is for the same reason any other animal, intelligent or not, would move. Survival. Would a spacefaring capable species go to another star if recources were spent locally, or overpopulation became a thing, their home star was dying, or their system was on a collision course with something that woukd disrupt it...sure. However for advanced civilizations for whom spacefaring is normal, if the need isn't there I just don't think we'll see them sending robots in all directions to explore. They may populate a few systems, but if a challege to survival isn't present, its not like they're going to drop in on us out of curiosity, or just to say hi. They aren't interested in us. They fully understand we're out there but they just don't care. Meeting other species ranges from ho hum to dangerous, and they already have access to a great deal of resources so they don't need our stuff. At the end of the day that's the only reason we're mystified at the lack of contact. We just aren't putting ourselves in their shoes...if they wear shoes.
But we don't need to understand them all. It just takes a single alien to fill the universe with probes.
They might do it to prevent competitors, like the Berserkers.
Do scientist ever consider the idea that intelligent life may not be in such a physical form (i.e. Dolphins) that they cannot manipulate their environment? Humans developed hands to be able to make things, but what truly are the odds of this happening here let alone an alien planet with vastly different conditions? Why do we assume that we're not special in a strictly biological sense?
Yup, we did a whole video talking about this: ua-cam.com/video/fuo3vWtSdqY/v-deo.html
What happens if the blueprint for replication gets corrupted and the new probes become something unintended by those that sent them?
For example, the new probes take apart the worlds where intelligent beings live.
Or the intelligent probes decide to change the mission to colonization and building an AI civilization?
Depends how long it should take intelligent space faring civilizations to arise with all the materials they need to create the probes.
Since you mentioned it..How about a special episode about Andromeda to celebrate the new Mass Effect game? Pretty please? Space please? Extragalactic please? :D
Just an episode on the Andromeda Galaxy?
+Fraser Cain Perhaps an episode on the feasibility on travelling to Andromeda, as that is the premise of the new Mass Effect game.
+Kryce +Fraser Cain that's a great idea. Sorry, I feel a little foolish for realizing now that this Andromeda pitch was too vague. It would take a mini series maybe.
The book accelerando proposes that aliens dont leave their Solar Systems because they would have a very low bandwith there.
I haven't read Accelerando yet, but sounds like a pretty legitimate reason to leave a Solar System.
Fraser Cain i recommend reading it for someone who knows a lot about space, technology and the Fermi paradox
But its a hard read
If you study the various type of astral dreams or communications via dreams (even your own dream), vortex machines (which are only accessed by higher intelligent aliens of different entity), phantom robots (even phantom planets which are undetectable by using our today's technology), coveted hybrid aliens (this includes alien's animals....i.e. bugs) that are already here on this planet, then you are likely to increase the odd of having "phantom-alike" aliens around here than before. Just giving you a couple of reasonable answers why alien's robots aren't here yet. :)
Maybe I saw them, while I'm sit in a class at high school, I saw couple of Mentos' shape UFO hovering in the sky for 20s then disappear, their velocity and freedom of movement is surpass the human technology.
It seems everybody thinks about the milkway for life, but if live is in other galaxies things get even more complicated
What would it take to move Earths orbit out? Or what would it take to move the asteroid Eros into an orbit around earth so that we could mine in?
As our technology advances, everything becomes smaller. Imagine how tiny the probes of a civilization advanced just a few hundred earth years more than ours could be. There may be thousands of solar powered golf ball sized probes orbiting earth and the rest of the solar system and we would not be able to detect them
Anyone here ever play the old 90's game, Star Control II? Remember the Slylandro probes? lol... Oh dear.
Totally, I loved SCII. Are you sitting down, they're working on a new game, should come into Alpha shortly? Check this out: www.starcontrol.com/
Oh yes, I caught that in a FB post a short while ago.. I still sometimes play an online reincarnation of SCII (unfortunately it's not the cool 3D0 version that got recompiled, which features voices for the aliens).
I am watching on a device in the future! Still great, content
What if space traveling robotics evolved to organic factories that could adapt and produce new space-faring robotics. What if you are a universal assembler.
That sounds like a downgrade to me. Robots made of meat aren't very durable. :-)
All in all, I think that our assumptions about how aliens would go about colonizing the galaxy/universe are flawed. Looking at humanity, our space program(s) are driven by military interests. There are many technological developments that have greatly impacted military strategy in the past 100 years, but the most notable are probably rocketry, flight, radar, and *stealth*. Flight reshaped WW1, radar reshaped air force strategy, rocketry just about defined the cold war, and the struggle between stealth and radar is defining the current state of military tactics and strategy. We not only build aircraft to be stealthy, but to a significant extent we're working stealth into our ground forces, navy, and even our communications networks.
It's not only reasonable to think, but probably unreasonable not to assume that any extraterrestrial intelligence which is slightly more advanced than us will also militarize their space exploration and colonization activities, and stealth will be a key concept governing how they approach space travel. As advanced as your civilization becomes, if you're always assuming that other civilizations use stealth to the same extent as you, you can never know if there's another - more advanced - civilization out there until one of you makes a critical error in the employment of stealth. Once that happens, all you can do is hope that you're the more advanced civilization, or that the other civilization is peaceful. We should always hope that one of these is the case, but it's unsafe to assume this, so we should prioritize stealth over rapid expansion.
Practically speaking, if a civilization had sent some von Neumann probes to Sol, they would have began their activities in the solar system by scouting for habitable planets and/or technological civilizations. After seeing Earth (say, a few million years ago), unless the probe was a "berserker" type of probe, the wisest thing for it to do would be to send back information about the presence of a habitable planet and the current lack of a technological species, then self destruct. If such a probe entered the solar system today, it would immediately detect a technological species which was clearly emitting EM radiation in a manner indicative of long-range detection radars (thanks, Cold War) as well as communications signals, and rather than risking detection (and possibly capture, reverse engineering, and revealing its originating star system) it would self destruct without sending back any information.
There are plenty of arguments against this scenario, but it's a plausible explanation for the entire Fermi paradox, and it provides good advice about how we should approach space exploration ourselves. Unfortunately, I've yet to see this given any serious consideration by popular science or by academic articles.
Maybe all stars in our Milky Way Galaxy has roughly the same age -- therefore the formation for planetary system takes time for life to flourish. We are just a small sprout in size of around 200 light years of radio bubble. The same for other stars..
"Rendezvous with Rama" is a classic sci-fi story about alien robots.....
Such a great book.
You mean Freeman "spheres" Dyson? George is his son (also the name of his father). Didn't George build canoes and live in tree houses close to where you live?
Ugh, you're totally right.
But what if your self-replicating robots create imperfect robots by accident, and those imperfect robots go on to create other imperfect robots. Even a small imperfection can be enough to be disastrous over time. We could end up with out of control robots that simply destroy everything they find.
yep, why haven't the clones invaded us yet? I WANT TO KNOW
That is the question.. where are they?
Christopher Eric I got a question