Realtor.com July 2024 Housing Market Update
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- Опубліковано 11 лип 2024
- The data is in and this video covers the first US housing market report I’ve seen that covers the entire month of June 2024. I share news regarding home price, price reductions, home sales, housing inventory and more.
For example, there’s a staggering 403k fewer homes for sale this June compared to the average June in 2017 through 2019 (down 32% but this gap has been narrowing as of late). However, housing inventory has grown by 26% year-to-date (i.e. June compared to January this year). For the same time period, this is far higher than the change last year (0%) and the average January to June in 2017-2019 (+13%) but only half the growth rate of 2022 (+52%).
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Compilation of Housing Market Forecast videos:
• Housing Market Predict...
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The reports I covered in today’s video:
www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-...
www.realtor.com/research/june...
www.cmegroup.com/markets/inte...
www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mor...
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To give you a quick mortgage interest rates update, according to the Mortgage News Daily the average 30 yr fixed rate mortgage is around 7% for the current mortgage rates (at the time of filming this video for those with excellent credit).
Comment below: what’s your housing market forecast? Do you think a housing crash will happen or are your housing market predictions that the real estate market and home prices will continue to surge?
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Jason Walter, CPA (inactive CPA lic 103885)
Sacramento real estate agent and native (DRE 01923240)
Mortgage Loan Officer, NMLS 2566691
Revest Homes (DRE 02174879, NMLS 2362319)
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Jason Walter is not a practicing tax accountant or a licensed attorney or financial adviser. Therefore, the information in these videos shall not be relied upon as tax, legal, or financial advice from a qualified perspective. If you need such advice, please contact a qualified tax accountant, attorney, or financial adviser. We have taken reasonable steps to check that the information in this video is accurate but we cannot represent that it is free from errors. You expressly agree not to rely upon any information contained in this video - it is for entertainment purposes only.
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I have been seeing g housed with sold signs but these are sitting g with sold signs for weeks if not months. What’s up with that? Also, empty homes. Lots of empty homes.
I have noticed a lot of pending sales. Yet a lot of these sales don't happen. Is there a data point showing the pending vs. final sales? Thanks
Seeing that also pending to contingent to back on market cycle.
Lol, pending sales of people making $55k who tried getting $325k loans at 7%. Like the other 15 million people who did that during 2021-2023. Unemployment in 2024-2026 is going to make 2008 look like a mild correction.
Same. Plenty of pendings but few completed sales when I search by recently sold.
Everyone who’s making an offer on a home can’t sell their existing one, then it ruins the sale on both ends
How are home prices going to increase when 95% of people can’t afford homes now? I think realtor, Zillow, etc. have it all wrong. I think personally that there is going to be a major downturn.
Not 95%. More like 30%. Get a better job.
@@user-dn5ud1cr3b if you say so.
@@user-dn5ud1cr3b so I guess millions of Americans just need to get better jobs 😄 need a better answer than that.
@@user-dn5ud1cr3b LOL man are you going to be disappointed. Better get a better economics lesson. Right now, zero homes are selling for under $500k, thus skewing the "rising value of homes" even though they're tanking nationally by 30+%.
It's happening in real time. The answer is because .0001% still are paying cash for $10m+ homes, but anything cheaper is tanking in value and STILL not selling. By October, that picture will be crystal clear. Follow the math, nothing else.
The data is in and it’s absolutely bonkers
Good morning to you!
@@MavRick69 ABSOLUTELY BONKERS 🤣😂
🤓
well, actually, datum is the singular.
The data *are* in.
🤓👨🏻🔬
Grammar is out, and it’s absolutely bonkers!
Bonkers!
Great stuff again Jason and happy Friday. The active listing count graph showing 2017 - 2024 continues to highlight what an outlier 2024 has become. Where it might be in the last quarter I dare not guess.
Thank you for watching, J!
We are screwed. Homes are unaffordable and the ruling class will not allow to correct. God bless America
There really are a lot of borderline malicious “solutions” out there.
Such as down payment assistance programs. Responding to low supply by increasing demand is misguided at best. It mostly bolsters profits of those who already have assets. The lenders and the sellers.
Remember to fight for your metro to enact actual solutions. That is, solutions that give incentives to bring more supply to market.
Vacancy taxes. Builder subsidies. Reduced regulation maybe? I don’t know what regulations there are that might not be important.
Great video, thanks.
I am curious: I have owned a “starter” home for 10 years. If I sold my home and used it as a (minimum 20%) down payment on another house I would barely be able to afford an “upgrade” in my area. Yet, I have always been in the 90th percentile for median household income in my county. If I can’t afford to sell and purchase, then who is buying all the houses in my area? In addition, how is a first time home buyer going to buy a house, if they can’t even afford to buy my “starter” home?
I love the spreadsheet. Which website would you recommend to follow the housing market nationwide?
Glad you liked it. I use a mix. Hard to know what’s best.
Tyvm
A 250 basis point rate cut would be wild. I think 50 to 100 is much more likely in September.
Did I say 250? If so, that was a mistake.
@@JasonWalter1 Just went back and checked, I had misheard it. You definitely said 25 basis points. Don't know where I got 250 basis points from.
Inland Empire area of Southern Ca. here. Inventory is ticking up slightly in the valleys, more so in the mountains. Prices are still elevated. Some homes are showing asking price cuts of $10K. In an older are of Rancho Cucamonga around me, an area of modest 1200-1800 sq/ft homes from the sixties, there is only 1 house under $600K. There is very little industry here. Warehousing, service, and professional jobs dominate.
Even if they lower rates 2 times this year by .25 each time that will only lower your payment by a few hundred and thats definitely not enough to bring buyers back but it will bring more inventory because i know a lot of people waiting to list after a cut so idk whats really going to happen
Thank you for sharing your predictions!
Thanks for your update Jason. We get it. Now go away.
Congrats on almost 100k subs Jason, you're the most objective data provider I follow, but I have to say it's refreshing that the data is finally leaning toward the inevitable recession in home values, which was always a mathematical inevitability dating back to 2021 when congress' irresponsible socialist spending decisions caused TX, TN and FL home values to rise 100-130% in only 20 months starting at the top of the 2019 10-year economic cycle peak, leading to objectionably the largest bubble in US history. 2024-2028 WILL be worse than 2008-2011.
You’re neglecting Law of Large numbers. Yeah inventory of 22’ increased percentage wise double that of YTD this year but the delta is only 22,257 homes.
If we consider the number (not the percentage) of homes added to the market this selling season vs. 2022, it’s roughly the same. This may lead to prices easing on par with 2022.
Yup I just noted that too. Delta only 22k
Welcome back Jason the Spreadsheet king 🤴 👍Let’s get nerdy!!!!
Always a good day to get nerdy! Good morning Steve!
Houses are selling in Long Beach area
So roughly another 380k homes and we'll be back to pre-covid inventory levels or roughly 45% more growth on the 840k active listings from June 24. It's still depressing that as inventory is rising we're not seeing house pricing fall that much if any at all. I'm worried we'll eventually get back to pre-covid levels and pricing wont fall that much and this market will just be the new norm which would really suck.
I'm hoping housing will become more affordable but I'm also very doubtful a crash will happen.
It sure looks like current prices are going to be the new norm. Record home prices, record stock market, and inflation still nearly 1.5 times Fed's desired level, yet they believe they are so "restrictive" its time to cut rates. I don't understand.
Check out lumber prices.
Builders have healthy margins and will continue bringing supply at a faster rate than prepandemic
Prices are dropping in several markets. Have patience. In Texas I’m almost able to buy a 40% larger house than I sold in 2022 at close to the same price. Sold at $150 a Square ft and shopping at $110 sq ft. I’ll be buying next year hopefully at $100 a Sq ft
@@seestuff09 oh I agree some markets are better than others, and I do see some price drops....just not as significant as I hoped for. Hope the trend continues though. I'm in the Dallas market so I do see some price drops....just need it to drop more lol. I'm worried what will happen though when interest rates go down....if prices will rise on demand that's been pent up.
Thank you for the update Jason
My pleasure!
@13:22 - I do not understand why the Fed would cut rates. Evidence that current rates are restrictive is what? Home prices at record levels? Stock market at record levels? Inflation still nearly 1.5 times desired 2% level? Anyone who has owed assets over the last 5 years has enjoyed an unprecedented increase in net worth. Interesting times.
Yes. Rates are right at historic norms. They just want to keep inflating things. What really scares me is when trump wins and demands rates to be cut (remember he wanted negative rates in 2018) as well as imposes tariffs things are going to be out of control. Why no one discusses this is beyond me.
More tariffs more inflation
Fed care most about inflation not housing prices.
I’d say new listings slowed because builders slowed down on production
Just wait until the July/Aug inventory numbers come out! 🚀
"Just wait" for next month. Just wait for next year. Just wait for next decade.
Waiting makes your landlord rich.
I currently have my Dad’s house up for sale in Sun City (Roseville CA). It’s been on the market for 26 days. No offers. As of this morning, we are dropping the price by $45k to $550k. Hoping to attract offers.
Wow that's a big price reduction for that asking price. Hope you get a buyer. I've sold a home there before - nice retirement community.
@@JasonWalter1 Yes, we were probably overly-optimistic when we listed, and this new price is definitely a risky under-pricing but it seems the market is about to really tank and we hope to attract offers and SELL this week.
Good morning
Good morning Debbie!
U should try new styles of videos. Been watching for 4 years and it’s still the same format.
Hello Jason, Nice video!!! I was wondering if i could hhelp you edit your vidoes which will help you save your time as well as focus on creating content??
I already have an editor
@@JasonWalter1 ok np, TY
Technically, you would be correct “Supply and Demand.” Although, it’s been more like a pyramid scheme between huge investors & banks incorporating at least by loans. To increase “taxes”, etc.
So people not selling much from 2016 to 2020 (pre covid), thing were stable, after 2020 until today everybody is selling, rough times need cash, it has to be with Governments terms??? which one was better? obviously..............
2008 here we come!
1😊
Good morning!
I've noticed 2x to 3x the amount of homes being listed. Far more price drops then ecer before.
Time will tell.
We still are no where near prepandemic levels. Which were low already. Unless you are getting half a million new listing coming in the mls monthly and nothing is selling not much will change
Still not news as long as the burn rate /months inventory has a 2 or 3 in front of it.
Rate cuts will lead to inflation surging to double digits once again. This fed chairman is absolutely spineless.
Let’s not forget that lower rates is also going to spur home selling activity. Not just home buying activity. In fact, I believe there’s more pent up selling demand than there is buying demand. If the fed raising rates ended up increasing home prices, why would the fed lowering rates have the exact same effect? Does not compute. Lower prices coming in the next 1-2 years.
Given rate cuts,
The logic for why prices would go up: monthly payments are often what matters; buyers spending less on interest would be willing to spend more on principle
The logic for why this 👆is likely wrong: not only are potential sellers aware of the above logic, they have it routinely drilled into their heads by realtors that rate cuts will send prices soaring any month now. And so they are making the classic market participant mistake of behaving in the same way as too many others. It may well be that there are loads of sellers who think they’re waiting for this price surge when in fact they’re actually waiting to all dump supply onto the market simultaneously
As usual the line-always-go-up crowd is the one relying on more simplistic reasoning.
But often the simple reasoning is correct?🤷🏼♂️
Me no know
There is no such thing as "pent up selling". Stop getting real estate insights from forever renting crash bros on UA-cam.
@@jacinedelarosa6302 there absolutely is. Did you even watch this exact video? What’s happening to listings and supply? 🧐
Didn't buyers want a higher inventory?
Yes absolutely.
Was it implied somewhere that they don’t?
Of course buyers want more inventory…
@@SigFigNewton just sarcasm
they want affordable & desireable inventory which is something that does not exist anymore, at least not in AZ
Lol. 2022-2023 was what's referred to as a bull trap. Without unemployment rising, people with zero economic knowledge started buying homes again without understanding that ALL the math inevitably indicates a worse housing crash than 2008, which is just now starting. Folks, the money is gone. People are the most overleveraged in US history while 10 million people signed up for loans they couldn't afford that would make 2007 peak bubble look mild by comparison.
I agree with what you're saying but as long as there are no consequences it is business as usual.