Hurricane Beryl Scatters Shipping Across the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico | Impact on the Supplychain?
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- Опубліковано 1 лип 2024
- Beryl Scatters Shipping
What's Going on With Shipping?
July 2, 2024
In this episode, Sal Mercogliano - a maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner - discusses the impact of Category 5 Hurricane Beryl on shipping in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean and on the global supply chain.
#supplychain #berylhurricane #beryl
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Marine Traffic
www.marinetraffic.com
Weather Channel
weather.com
National Hurricane Center
www.nhc.noaa.gov
EIA All Energy Infrastructure
atlas.eia.gov/apps/all-energy...
🚨I should note that the pipeline map I used did show lines in Florida, but those are for natural gas. To see the diesel and gasoline pipelines, check out this map from EIA. www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=15651 🚨
That is one crazy tree in the background. I love your 'dad sign on the bookcase' too.
1st channel to mention this. This is the main reason I subbed when I first discovered this channel...info that matters 👍🏽👍🏽👍🏽👍🏽
he’s the only guy who talks about the stuff that matters !
I appreciate that
Sal, shoud we start a media storm by forwarding this to news outlets??
Steven Fletcher has good show on it, astrology, biblical
Hey, Sal. I just wanted to let you know that you have made shipping an interesting addition to my almost daily routine. Thanks for being so thorough and entertaining! Keep it up, brother.
this is sooo true
the analysis sal brings is truly great
By the way, I found Sal's channel through Ward Carroll's channel. Both are absolutely great channels. Ward keeps you up to date on military aviation, and other military odds and ends.
Yes yes daily for me also
I never considered this, Sal, thanks for highlighting the effect of hurricanes on shipping.
I used to get furious with newsrooms and forecasters when they said ' Hurricane X has passed safely out to sea' ????????????
Riiiight!!!
I mean... a vast majority of people don't live on the ocean, and ships - especially nowadays - can do a lot to avoid hurricanes. Your average New Orleans struggles a lot more to move out of the path of a big storm.
as a west coast florida resident i’ve been waiting for a good video like this one! thanks sal !
yah pretty cool. If Sal has any knowledge on history of how all this and hurricane evasion tactics evolved. Would be nice watc.
Around 2000, the rule was fog in the Houston Ship canal for a week meant gas prices went up by 5 cents a gallon. So there's a time factor on the disruptions. And that was just a reduction in transits due to the fog, not damage.
Very interesting. Had never thought about the composite impact of these diversionary tactics. I guess no ship's master wants to imitate El Faro with a Category 5!
Just watched an interview with the UK Met Office's hurricane expert who sends their data to the US National Hurricane Center. He showed a graph of seasonal sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic this year compared with the average. They are way, way higher. No overlap at all. This looks like being a very taxing year for shipping and small flat islands.
Wonder what the old like old old Mariners would think about our capacity to receive and send information with the details and convince the modern day provides...
Even the not so old mainers are pretty impressed! For anyone at sea more than 50 years ago it would seem magical! More than a hundred and fifty and it would appear supernatural!
I have been regularly watching this channel since the Ever Given in the Suez.
Me too!
Pretty much lived my whole life here in SE Texas around Houston. Interesting perspective on things man I appreciate the random knowledge I never knew I'd like. I don't even own a boat or work around them but this channel is always a fun watch. Thanks dude
Glad you enjoyed it
What I hated is being in a storm and the vessel is rolling back and forth, back and forth, and then it gets to the top of a roll, pauses, and keeps going another degree or three before falling back. 51 degree roll. Glad I missed out on that.
Great content/info 👍 Following Paisano Sal since the beginning (COVID) when he started his channel
Blessings n prayers for the merchant mariners
🙏
Dali sails out of Baltimore. Sea "Oh no you dont"
Sal you can't leave us hanging about what ship you were on with a 51* roll, where you on watch, which ocean? Having done a few hurricane sorties, been old DESRON level who could and could not get U/W, where to berth them (Charleston SC when still USN, so your video of 15Kt speedie trip Cooper River was interesting), did avoidance, do we cross the T or go under in the Atlantic. Worst roll was northern VACAPES, had green water over bow in IO, lost ship's bell off of NC. Keep up the great video's, a friend works for a US Flag shipping company, she has been able to use them for the betterment of the company service. So you're making a real difference for the nation.
On board USNS Neosho and heading south behind Hurrican Hugo in 89. I was on watch and I had called the captain that the course we were on, we were heading to the Caribbean with Desron 2, was killing us and even worse for the destroyers. But we were trying to cross behind Hugo and in front of a tropical storm that was in its wake and the sea was as confused as anything I had ever seen.
The captain called me before we took the roll and I said it was a bad course and we should alter but he said to follow the Commodore. It was about 15 minutes later we took the roll and he came up to the bridge and we changed course.
I once worked with someone who'd been a chief petty office one of the big American carriers when it got caught in a typhoon. To reduce its windage, they pumped sea water into every possible space and headed directly into the wind. I asked him if the ship had fallen even a few degrees off the wind, would the ship's powerful nuclear engines have been able to steer it back? He said no. Here is a short video of the USS Kitty Hawk under those conditions. Waves were breaking over the flight deck. ua-cam.com/video/Z0Jzb8dfcC4/v-deo.html
THANKS for this updste. Many of us get caught up in legacy headlines, and give no thought to the vital shipping industry. GREAT SHIRT by-the-way !!!
I have been in a bulkhead walking roll in a guided missile destroyer during a typhoon while trapped among the many islands of PI. It is the #1 reason i left the US Navy the following year.
Love the red dot tracker of the hurricane on the Lego world. Makes it easy to follow. :)
This is very interesting, the media up here in Canada never talks about infrastructure. You'd think they would want to inform the public, but no.
Hurricane Fifi followed a similar path in 1974. We were coming back from the West Coast of South America and waited for it to pass by, and went around the back side, 85 miles from the eye at one point. No 51° rolls, but almost! Baloney sandwiches for several days, wearing life jackets 24/7. It was an interesting ride, for sure.
Thanks for the update Sal!...more informative then the Weather Channel. The Colonial Pipeline is a major coronary artery for the east coast. If that shuts down..it's akin to a "widowmaker". That said, it's amazing how reliable that conduit is.
I've been here watching from 🇯🇲 since the evergreen ❤ one LOVE mon
Things are bad when it's your turn in the Beryl.
Facts. BERYL don't play.
I think ctrm is going to buy 5 million bucks worth of its common stock
Thanks Sal for your incite on all things shipping. This hurricane reminds me Admiral Halsey and Typhoon Cobra with the obvious difference current ships have up to the minute weather news to avoid it.
Love your channel, you know you're business
We lived in Fla. for 15 years, never panicked despite the media’s attempt to worry people. In fact with the constant panicc drumbeat people end up ignoring them
If you're prepared. There is no reason to panic.
This is a fast moving storm and while it will still be a major hurricane for Jamaca, it very likely won't be much more than a Cat 1 by the time it gets to the Yucatan, and when it enters Campeche it'll be a TS. Beryl has already peaked in intensity and SSTs are lower from here on out. There will be delays but the overall impacts probably won't be extreme.
I love that you always update the globe 🤣🤣
The Professor definitely has his finger on the pulse of international shipping. Thanks for the upload. Most just think about what happens on the land during these events.
Theres all kinds of interesting things happening because of the nature of the sector theres piracy conflicts storms its wild
To add to shipping problems in the Red Sea there is now hurricane problems in the Caribbean which could be the first of many.
Sal, I subscribed because I live near Baltimore and I was interested in the Dali situation. But I keep looking at your videos on other topics because these are things that I have never considered, and I like to educate myself. I find the shipping maps fascinating, and now this pipeline map is amazing to me! There are so many pieces that support our “way of life” and sometimes those pieces are fragile or endangered. Thanks for these informative videos.
Sal is the Man!
Can't help thinking of the story of the El Faro.... Good luck to anyone on a ship near the hurricane.
Great episode thanks for the update
Thanks!
Thanks Don!
Thanks Sal. I just sent this video to a friend that has family in Jamaica. I've been waiting for you to cover this. Mainstream media does a 💩job for coverage. Been praying for this friend who is one of the best ladies I have ever met. You really came through. God bless you❤
JUST BOUGHT EVERY JERRY CAN IN HOME DEPO , cheers for the heads up
Great report. Physics and sailors. What could go wrong? Category 5 caught my attention. Yikes.
I think the Yucatán is so flat and wet that it almost counts as sea for a big storm. I don't think it will lose power if it goes straight across the thin end of the peninsula as predicted
Great info. I learn something new with every video, tho just tuning in to see your shirts is almost as entertaining! Thanks Sal
Super interesting practical look at logistical dynamics being poked with a cat 5 hurricane sized stick. I love this s__t 😊
Whoa! Thanks Sal.
Interesting discussion as always. Thanks Sal.
Sal if you did not know the sea temperature broke all records in the last two years and in a few spots in the world we almost had a total die-off event due to the water getting too warm.
Thus I am surprised hurricane season has not been more active than it has been
I believe Sal is aware of sea temperature changes.
Thanks for the update.
Professor you need to do a video on the heroic British logistical Merchant Mariners serving during Falklands war. Up the Red Ensign! Cheers.
I suggest reading “No Sea Too Rough” by Geoff Puddefoot, the Royal Fleet Auxiliary in the Falklands War. God Rest their lost and bless their survivors.
Great great presentation!! they just keep getting better and better
Please keep up the effort !! Love it… learning much… or at least being more aware and better informed thanks
Don't forget. Port Everglades floods even with a heavy Florida afternoon downpour. They're busy right now.
What does that even mean? How is that related to this specific information?
Beryl became a hurricane closer to 50W, pretty far from Africa. Yes, it was farther East, but not that far yet. The farther East they form, generally they track northerly sooner. Love the NHC forecasts and discussion pages!
Glad I caught your channel. I've been interested in shipping since covid. It's interesting to me. So is the truth. ☮️
Have you covered the story of El Faro trying to outrun a storm a few years back? I've seen the investigation covered on another channel. Really sad story. Seems timely to remember how bad things can get at sea...
Texas and Louisiana refineries are hugely critical. In the last few years, we've closed down major refineries in both Philadelphia and the US Virgin Islands. No one is building new ones. Those North Jersey refineries carry a good chunk of East Coast Supply. Speaking of Pipelines? Are they still vulnerable to cyber attacks like we saw a few years ago?
Great 😃👍 channel 👌💯 I enjoyed the commentary and breakdown of how it would impact/not impact the pipeline stateside. Watching from San Diego, CA USA❤🤍💙 GOD bless America
A silver lining in this dark cloud is rain for deep South Texas. They need the moisture in the worst way possible. Thanks for the update.
Thanks Sal God bless!!✌️🇺🇲
Thank you for the info.
Don’t worry if there’s any disruption in the delivery of gas the oil companies will jack up the prices.
this would greatly impact the USA and other oil production and thus the share index
Great news show. As always.🌎
Remembering the crew of El Faro. Thank you for mentioning them.
There might very well be many happy skippers who now won't have to anchor for days before passing through the Panama Canal. Always with the negative waves, Moriarty(?).
I just watched a detailed video of Hurricane Beryl’s forecast on the channel “Mr. Weatherman” - It is very interesting to see the perspective of the meteorology and impacts on land and then come over and see how it impacts vessels out on the ocean.
Thank you
Pray that the crews of any vessels in the region don't repeat the mistakes made on EL FARO.
Always appreciate your perspective free of politics & spin.
Super insightful
On today's episode of What's going on with shipping: I just left Punta Cana, before the eye of the storm.
Thank you! Love the shirt.
This had not crossed my mind...
Sprinting across the hurricane freeway.
Thanks Sal
Thanks for the Info !
Never Considered The Shipping In This Severe Weather, Food Delivery Will Be Slow Not To Mention The Safety Of The Crews On These Ships!
Thanks
Great explanation Sal
Thank you kindly
Before this channel I never thought of Natural Disasters and Current Trade Events
So cool
Thanks, Sal. You educated.
The OTHER GULF !
This is the Other gulf from which millions of gallons of oil flow . This one is also a closed gulf with no way out but the direction from hence you came . The Countries bordering this Gulf , while unstable ( that includes you America) at least aren't shooting at each other ( not yet anyway) .
That said , Hurricanes pose the biggest threat . And very few storms take a track straight down the Gulfs throat like this one ! Currents and Water temperature are going to make a huge difference in the flow of shipping because one quick change in dynamics and direction can trap a hundreds of vessels with no where to go. Best to go to port and not ride this one out .
This is great info. Look at all those f'in ships!
Very informative report.
Thank you!
THANKS..........FOR THE UPDATE...........LETS PRAY FOR THOSE HURTING IN THE ISLANDS PAUL JOHN OTTAWA ONTARIO CANADA
I live in south Louisiana, I am NOT looking forward to this hurricane season. Last year we didn't even get the hint of a big storm, this year we're not going to be so lucky.
It's interesting how big data supports shipping now, and how everyone learned (hopefully) from El Faro just a few short years ago.
Great stuff!!!! Never knew this information !!! Its incredible the amount of SHIPPING
9:10 hurricanes are bad. The less populated of a spot where they land, the better. The Yucatán has a relatively low population density for this part of the world.
Thank you Brother, you made me just a little bit smarter!
Glad to hear it!
We need the president to draw a new trajectory for Beryl with a sharpie. Maybe it works this time... ☝️
Thanks! I wish I could send you more.
No worries!
Sal, I enjoy this channel since discovering it. There's one point I want to make here. Beryl has already likely reached peak intensity. By the time it reaches the Yucatan, the NHC says it will barely be a category 1 (See the discussion section for each storm on the NHC website). They are keeping it a tropical storm through Sunday with a Monday landfall on Mexico. We could almost say that the "worst" of the storm is "behind" us (but not for the people in Jamaica and points west). This is a detailed explanations on what happens with shipping during Hurricanes. I would say that you should do more of these as each storm starts to have impacts on shipping. If it is as busy as the experts say, it is going to be four months of constant chaos and that is going to be of great impact to the supply chain.
Thanks for the clarification. I was going to follow up in two days to see what ships are doing as it approaches the Yucatan. Thanks!
@@wgowshipping As of 5 pm, NHS has it moving towards Galveston. May be a hurricane.
I saw it went to cat 5 and 😳 well cr@p!! Prayers for all caught in Beryl's path 🥺💔
i may be moving some money stocks in shipping costs around some
Yes jet fuel is a big one, because aircraft do not take a small amount of fuel per flight, and each flight has many tons of fuel on board. Easily 30 tons per flight, and with 5 flights a day per aircraft, that is 150 tons of fuel a day, now multiply by the thousands of flights a day, and you see a 6 day disruption will make for many cancelled flights, and the remaining ones being full to capacity. Then also all rental companies will be out of vehicles as well, from people renting a car to drive, probably a single occupant per vehicle in most cases, making it worse when normal fuel deliveries start and there are no rental cars at airports, or they all are at far flung points and not at hubs.
Consumers need to watch this. We are already expecting higher prices because of tornadoes and flooding. Another disaster that will ultimately affect millions. South Texas, not a stranger to hurricanes but this is a stark notice of how far reaching the affects are.
Learned a lot of new things with this one. Glad I subscribed to your channel. :)
Awesome, thank you!
@@wgowshipping Thank you for providing a lot of good information. Not only helps me know what's going on, but also helps me understand more about how shipping actually works. I'm a writer and one of the genres I like to write (and read) is science fiction. It's good know how this stuff works so you don't look like a complete idiot when you put it in a story. :)
Someone should mention to Halsey that one should avoid hurricanes
I accidentally ran into that marine real time map. It is fascinating to see it. It’s a little misleading though because it maintains an icon of a ship that reported over 1h ago, without any indication of where it could be now. Otherwise it’s neat to see it.
Pipelines in the water? You mention no pipelines in FLA but map showed blue lines. Nice info Sal.
Those are natural gas. I should have edited the map to just show gasoline and diesel.
www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=15651
I was thinking about you Sal when I heard this thing went from a tropical storm with in 24 hrs to a cat 5... All the islands need supplies and some need help. What scary is seeing all them ships burning fuel what happens when we run out.. I'm stocking up on sailing magazines and how to cook fish & lure willing women to sail...
Dr. Mercogliano - I found your most interesting "chanel" during the recent Baltimore embroglio. Would appreciate hearing you discuss the fuel costs for a larger ship at sea, the logistic considerations of keeping the shipping fleet fueled, and keeping ship fuel at locations which have no oil (e.g. the Azores, Hawaii, &c.) Really enjoy your "chanel." Greetings from Pennsylvania, the land of corn fields and Amish buggies. ☺
The lady at the perfume counter has a sample for you.
Yep!