@william manket Norpoth made his prediction too early, and now he realizes he's likely in trouble. He may have let his personal political feelings get in the way of his analysis. The "Trump by a landslide" prediction indicates a preference on his part. I have no idea what Licthman's politics are, but he waited a lot closer to the election before making his prediction. The Australian statistician Bela Stantic also made a Trump win prediction a while back, but he says he will make a final prediction just before the election and reveal it the following day. Curious to see if he switches to Biden or not. One of these guys is going to have his streak broken, though. That's a given.
@william manket Well, this could be a flaw in his model then... predicting things too early. That's like trying to predict the hurricane season in March - all it takes is one big sandstorm in the Sahara and you're completely wrong. There's still a chance he could turn out right... but man, I wouldn't like to put any money down on it.
@william manket I don't know about Russians. Even if the Russians did do something, they can't make people vote one way or the other in the voting booth. I don't know about voter suppression either, but turn out is a key factor. I don't think it's wrong to assume a bigger voter turnout is likely to favor Biden over Trump. For instance, in Florida, Trump may do fairly well with Latinos, but the large number of Northerners coming down to Florida (due to COVID-19) and the large number of Puerto Ricans (due to the hurricanes) may under cut this. The governor of Puerto Rico did endorsed Trump, but she isn't that popular and isn't staying after 2020. Many people from NY and NJ aren't very likely Trump voters. There is no way Norpoth could have known back in March about the older people from New York and New Jersey coming down to Florida and deciding to make their move permanent. He made the prediction too soon... I think anyway.
@william manket If Norpoth does get it wrong this time, though, I think he would have to acknowledge either a flaw in his model or a flaw in the date of his predictions. Litchman would have it worse if he was wrong, actually, because he had the benefit the extra few months of observation. That would indicate a flaw in his model for sure. Norpoth at least has the fall back option of saying he was correct at the time and his model is still better.
@KT Chong He got cocky and overconfident with his model, and it's going to cost him this time. The lesson is don't make your predictions in March, eight months before the election. I don't care how good your model is. A lot can happen in that amount of time, and this year something did. Even if Trump does eke out a win, there ain't gonna be no landslide for him. As a matter of fact, there's a real danger the exact OPPOSITE of what he predicted may happen.
Helmut is the man! He has the right prediction model. It’s objective based on actual performance and results of candidates. He will be right when trump wins re-election
william manket - The thing is, Covid changes things like voter interest in voting etc esp now that postal ballots are being encouraged. The fact that his model can’t accommodate a black swan event like this( no model can, so can’t blame Mr Helmut here who is awesome) makes this election a little difficult to predict
@@DanielOkulitch lol that’s the thing. In general Helmut’s model is right. But Covid and Trump’s response to it was a once in a century kind of event. If it wasn’t for that, I think Trump would’ve won. But this event and Helmut’s model’s inability to accommodate it made me a little sceptical.
How is Professor Norpoth's model affected by the cancellation of the Republicans SC's primary? Not much data there to compare anything to now is there?
Lichtman vs. Norpoth is the only real discussion worth having.
@william manket Norpoth made his prediction too early, and now he realizes he's likely in trouble. He may have let his personal political feelings get in the way of his analysis. The "Trump by a landslide" prediction indicates a preference on his part. I have no idea what Licthman's politics are, but he waited a lot closer to the election before making his prediction. The Australian statistician Bela Stantic also made a Trump win prediction a while back, but he says he will make a final prediction just before the election and reveal it the following day. Curious to see if he switches to Biden or not. One of these guys is going to have his streak broken, though. That's a given.
@william manket Well, this could be a flaw in his model then... predicting things too early. That's like trying to predict the hurricane season in March - all it takes is one big sandstorm in the Sahara and you're completely wrong. There's still a chance he could turn out right... but man, I wouldn't like to put any money down on it.
@william manket I don't know about Russians. Even if the Russians did do something, they can't make people vote one way or the other in the voting booth. I don't know about voter suppression either, but turn out is a key factor. I don't think it's wrong to assume a bigger voter turnout is likely to favor Biden over Trump. For instance, in Florida, Trump may do fairly well with Latinos, but the large number of Northerners coming down to Florida (due to COVID-19) and the large number of Puerto Ricans (due to the hurricanes) may under cut this. The governor of Puerto Rico did endorsed Trump, but she isn't that popular and isn't staying after 2020. Many people from NY and NJ aren't very likely Trump voters. There is no way Norpoth could have known back in March about the older people from New York and New Jersey coming down to Florida and deciding to make their move permanent. He made the prediction too soon... I think anyway.
@william manket If Norpoth does get it wrong this time, though, I think he would have to acknowledge either a flaw in his model or a flaw in the date of his predictions. Litchman would have it worse if he was wrong, actually, because he had the benefit the extra few months of observation. That would indicate a flaw in his model for sure. Norpoth at least has the fall back option of saying he was correct at the time and his model is still better.
@KT Chong He got cocky and overconfident with his model, and it's going to cost him this time. The lesson is don't make your predictions in March, eight months before the election. I don't care how good your model is. A lot can happen in that amount of time, and this year something did. Even if Trump does eke out a win, there ain't gonna be no landslide for him. As a matter of fact, there's a real danger the exact OPPOSITE of what he predicted may happen.
Helmut is the man! He has the right prediction model. It’s objective based on actual performance and results of candidates. He will be right when trump wins re-election
william manket - The thing is, Covid changes things like voter interest in voting etc esp now that postal ballots are being encouraged.
The fact that his model can’t accommodate a black swan event like this( no model can, so can’t blame Mr Helmut here who is awesome) makes this election a little difficult to predict
vbshane things being based more on mail ballots helps republicans they will be the ones more likely to vote and go to the polls
@@mikeimpressionsreviews Go to the polls I agree. But how will it help in mailing ballots
This aged well.
@@DanielOkulitch lol that’s the thing. In general Helmut’s model is right. But Covid and Trump’s response to it was a once in a century kind of event.
If it wasn’t for that, I think Trump would’ve won. But this event and Helmut’s model’s inability to accommodate it made me a little sceptical.
Helmut is the man of the hour! Don't bother to watch past him!
How is Professor Norpoth's model affected by the cancellation of the Republicans SC's primary? Not much data there to compare anything to now is there?
Helmut is the best
Apparently not.
@@DanielOkulitch election is not over. Read the constitution
Before you watch this know that Leonie Huddy, Stanley Feldman, and Yanna Krupnikov, are all Trump haters.
Trump 2020 🇺🇸 Get the tissues ready lefties 😂
Trump trump forever 🙏🙏🙏👍👍👍👍🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏