Perhaps not in your wheelhouse but I am thinking there may be some opportunity in the recreational property market. People whom have bought that lake front cottage on Pitt lake or Harrison using the crazy low interest rates we enjoyed for so long may now find the second property unaffordable? P.S. I was around in 1981 so I have seen 17+% rates and what that did to people when they went to renew their mortgage. Hold on to your hats folks, it may get rough.
I'm wondering how significant the real estate price drops within the next year will really be, given that the sales will be so thin. Interest rates will come down sooner or later, and when they do, real estate prices will move right back up. By the time the interest rates go down, the supply of homes will be desperately low.
YES! Born in raised around the mega-mansion-suburbs of Surrey all my life and now I FINALLY might have a chance actually being able to be a homeowner one day!
Man, your videos are great. Prices in Vancouver are unbelievable, so expensive! I'd like to live there, but everything in life has the right moment. Future belongs to GOD!
The fact that you and everyone were wrong about how aggressive rate hikes would be also shows that you're likely wrong about the fact that the worst price declines are behind and yes the market can easily drop 50% from here
The higher the rates the faster new supply goes to 0, which means down the road will result an even larger spike up as housing becomes even worse shortage situations. Houses in middle of nowhere will take a very long time to recover, houses near jobs will recover quickly. Condos are still up on the year since Jan1 (at least in GTA) and up y/y.....the affordability crunch is pushing everyone downhill.
I understand your theory, but if it was true there would be evidence of massive building and new houses having been released into the market over the last decade as prices have increased. So it is actually the government which has prevented most building VIA zoning, high development fees and the long red-tape processes to get anything approved or built. Also the government allowing foreigners and corporations to buy up real-estate has added to the competition. You change that and you change the housing market, much more would get built and faster. What we now see is provincial and national governments realizing that the feeding frenzy on the average person wanting to buy must end and they are now changing the municipal power structure to be void of housing decisions, allowing the province to dictate the zoning and fee structures that have previously lined the pockets of local governments.
Great news though I feel sorry for all the imbeciles who calculated never ending profits by flipping shacks that were worthless now they have to go out and get a real job and stop playing the public for fools although anyone who bought a house at 10 times its value should be considered one of the suckers born every minute.
Yes u can but the debt will ruin your credit. U could stay here and ruin your credit too. 7 years to clean it up. Also u will have to build a credit rating in the other country, probably take you 5 years. Also if you have any equity u may have will be gone.
They could, but would they walk away from the property and what is most likely their life savings? Or weather the storm and wait for the market to come back?
With the market spike/crash a lot of people saw it coming, the amount of money that was handed out to people during cavid + and the amount of money that was poorly mishandled + money sent to Ukraine + during low interests everyone went out and bought property while biting off more than they could chew. It would not suprise me if all of this was intentional 🤔
So I think it’s hard for anyone to make predictions, you are making many based on previous trends, which I don’t necessarily believe are going to repeat themselves. The only thing propping up the market, besides foreigners and corporations, which shouldn’t be allowed, is inventory. Inventory is being addressed nationally and this alone could help tame prices over the long term, as well sooner or later baby boomers are going to sell and it’s not going to be too much later based on their age. Not everyone has to return to the office anymore, and remote work could continue to effect the demographics of where people need to live. Big cities are expensive and mostly suck so few really want to be there if they don’t need to be. However inflation is a world wide problem that we will not solve here in our small country so you can expect interest rates as high as 8 % or higher. Keep in mind that mostly everything is still going up in cost, it’s only been fuel that has come down recently. Anyway how a $300,000 house can be worth $1 million a decade later is way too much of a head scratcher and I don’t expect that can last. Housing will need to eventually rebalance with incomes and that will make the 1 million dollar house worth $500,000 within 1-2 years
Some of the baby boomers will need to sell since they co-signed their kids mortgages and if the kids can’t handle their payments next year or the year after and need to foreclose, the banks/mortgage companies will be asking the parents to cover the financial loss causing the parents to sell much sooner than they’d expect
Inventory will get better with a lot of AIrBNB going into the market ,because no one will be travelling as much with cost of living going higher and higher by the hour !
Really appreciate your videos. I want to buy a small condo eventually so I'm ok to wait for a while. Trying to make sure I don't lose my job and keep savings/down payment growing.
Downsizing? I have a question. Why is a bad idea to downsize in this market? If u have a paid off property and are buy-in a smaller property cash, , how are u losing? U are selling low but alsombuying low. Net zero?
20% off of $1,000,000 is worse than 20% off of $500,000. And really detached is down almost 30% from the peak while strata is maybe -15%, so downsizers are losing equity faster.
@@SteveKarrasch I still don't get the downside inntge property immbying is discounted too? Say my 1.4mkillion house is now with 1 million but I downsize to a 700k townhouse I still net a 300k profit. When my house was worth 1.4k then that row house was worth 1million?
your out of the loop.. I knew prices would drop... should of dropped last year and feds should of started raising rates last oct..... and mortgage fraud is krazy in vancouver/fraser valley.. either your lying not knowing about it.. or completely out of it.... anyways... when this bottoms out.. buy in... long term.. real estate always goes up....
Great video and advice. Only one comment regarding the bottom of the markets.: I recently read that in US previous market crash started in 2007 and the bottom was reached in 2012. Right now we have a low inventory on market, after 6 months of decline, if will continue like that, probably the bottom will be 2-3 years from now
@@SteveKarrasch On average, detached went up 800K and TH went up 400K in 2 years. It definitely was neither supply issue nor immigration for this steep rise, both these have existed in Canada for ever. A further 300K fall in houses and 200K in THs to erase all 2020 gains is easy if rates remain elevated for another 1 year. Sad part is, even then it won't be possible for majority to buy, as monthly payment won't be any different from Feb 2022. Banks and Govt. have screwed the future of Canadians forever by their stupid policy of distributing free money and keeping low rates forever.
Perhaps not in your wheelhouse but I am thinking there may be some opportunity in the recreational property market. People whom have bought that lake front cottage on Pitt lake or Harrison using the crazy low interest rates we enjoyed for so long may now find the second property unaffordable?
P.S. I was around in 1981 so I have seen 17+% rates and what that did to people when they went to renew their mortgage. Hold on to your hats folks, it may get rough.
I'm wondering how significant the real estate price drops within the next year will really be, given that the sales will be so thin. Interest rates will come down sooner or later, and when they do, real estate prices will move right back up. By the time the interest rates go down, the supply of homes will be desperately low.
Yes.
20years ago immigrants working for Mac Donald could have their own “house”
Now even medical doctors cannot afford
Situations extremely far different
I sure like this fellow. Just tells it like it is. Honest and fair.
Thanks. I try!
Excellent video, nice work!
Thank you very much!
Great information. Finally, someone gives an honest opinion..!!!
Thanks! But not finally, a good couple years now on this channel.
YES! Born in raised around the mega-mansion-suburbs of Surrey all my life and now I FINALLY might have a chance actually being able to be a homeowner one day!
Might
Man, your videos are great. Prices in Vancouver are unbelievable, so expensive! I'd like to live there, but everything in life has the right moment. Future belongs to GOD!
Vancouver is barely dropping.
The fact that you and everyone were wrong about how aggressive rate hikes would be also shows that you're likely wrong about the fact that the worst price declines are behind and yes the market can easily drop 50% from here
What about all of the things I was right about? Do they count?
@@SteveKarrasch
Just wait until rent prices start dropping
50 % in nominal terms
But in real terms they can drop by another 95% or more
195% drop?
@@SteveKarrasch
Once this hyper inflationary depression is over
No one will want to rent from government and call it ownership
Karrasch predicts crash! Sorry, couldn't resist. It's Bad Joke Monday here.
All dad jokes welcome.
The higher the rates the faster new supply goes to 0, which means down the road will result an even larger spike up as housing becomes even worse shortage situations.
Houses in middle of nowhere will take a very long time to recover, houses near jobs will recover quickly. Condos are still up on the year since Jan1 (at least in GTA) and up y/y.....the affordability crunch is pushing everyone downhill.
I agree.
I understand your theory, but if it was true there would be evidence of massive building and new houses having been released into the market over the last decade as prices have increased. So it is actually the government which has prevented most building VIA zoning, high development fees and the long red-tape processes to get anything approved or built. Also the government allowing foreigners and corporations to buy up real-estate has added to the competition. You change that and you change the housing market, much more would get built and faster. What we now see is provincial and national governments realizing that the feeding frenzy on the average person wanting to buy must end and they are now changing the municipal power structure to be void of housing decisions, allowing the province to dictate the zoning and fee structures that have previously lined the pockets of local governments.
@@Dwayne_the_Fitness_Guy Changing the status quo is easier said than done.
buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own and I'm bleeding out right now.
Meta looks like a deal today.
Go story I don’t think your right I believe money more costly for 25 years
Great news though I feel sorry for all the imbeciles who calculated never ending profits by flipping shacks that were worthless now they have to go out and get a real job and stop playing the public for fools although anyone who bought a house at 10 times its value should be considered one of the suckers born every minute.
While you own nothing and rent a basement suite . Bet the chicks are lining up …
To be fair who wants to live in surrey ?
only me, and about 700,000 other people.
I have a question for everyone: Can someone who's underwater in their mortgage, and has 2 passports, can simply bail and leave the country?
Yes u can but the debt will ruin your credit. U could stay here and ruin your credit too. 7 years to clean it up. Also u will have to build a credit rating in the other country, probably take you 5 years. Also if you have any equity u may have will be gone.
@@shannonbarthelette4749 Thanks. For some immigrants, the calculus will be interesting.
They could, but would they walk away from the property and what is most likely their life savings? Or weather the storm and wait for the market to come back?
@@SteveKarrasch It'll probably be a case by case issue. Depends on the country of origin too. Someone from Ukraine won't go back for sure.
It will get even worse, MAYBE I'll be able to afford a home for my wife and I instead of paying someone else's mortgage
not if it gets worse.
Money is getting worthless everyday. Get a mortgage for as much as you can, buy the biggest property in 5 yesrs.
Some truth to that argument.
With the market spike/crash a lot of people saw it coming, the amount of money that was handed out to people during cavid + and the amount of money that was poorly mishandled + money sent to Ukraine + during low interests everyone went out and bought property while biting off more than they could chew. It would not suprise me if all of this was intentional 🤔
it will drop a 200% next jk hahha
I'm not buying til it drops 400%
Thanks for update. No relief until next year I feel.
Probably true.
So I think it’s hard for anyone to make predictions, you are making many based on previous trends, which I don’t necessarily believe are going to repeat themselves. The only thing propping up the market, besides foreigners and corporations, which shouldn’t be allowed, is inventory. Inventory is being addressed nationally and this alone could help tame prices over the long term, as well sooner or later baby boomers are going to sell and it’s not going to be too much later based on their age. Not everyone has to return to the office anymore, and remote work could continue to effect the demographics of where people need to live. Big cities are expensive and mostly suck so few really want to be there if they don’t need to be. However inflation is a world wide problem that we will not solve here in our small country so you can expect interest rates as high as 8 % or higher. Keep in mind that mostly everything is still going up in cost, it’s only been fuel that has come down recently. Anyway how a $300,000 house can be worth $1 million a decade later is way too much of a head scratcher and I don’t expect that can last. Housing will need to eventually rebalance with incomes and that will make the 1 million dollar house worth $500,000 within 1-2 years
Some of the baby boomers will need to sell since they co-signed their kids mortgages and if the kids can’t handle their payments next year or the year after and need to foreclose, the banks/mortgage companies will be asking the parents to cover the financial loss causing the parents to sell much sooner than they’d expect
Inventory will get better with a lot of AIrBNB going into the market ,because no one will be travelling as much with cost of living going higher and higher by the hour !
Really appreciate your videos. I want to buy a small condo eventually so I'm ok to wait for a while. Trying to make sure I don't lose my job and keep savings/down payment growing.
You can do it!
Downsizing? I have a question. Why is a bad idea to downsize in this market? If u have a paid off property and are buy-in a smaller property cash, , how are u losing? U are selling low but alsombuying low. Net zero?
20% off of $1,000,000 is worse than 20% off of $500,000. And really detached is down almost 30% from the peak while strata is maybe -15%, so downsizers are losing equity faster.
@@SteveKarrasch I still don't get the downside inntge property immbying is discounted too? Say my 1.4mkillion house is now with 1 million but I downsize to a 700k townhouse I still net a 300k profit. When my house was worth 1.4k then that row house was worth 1million?
your out of the loop.. I knew prices would drop... should of dropped last year and feds should of started raising rates last oct..... and mortgage fraud is krazy in vancouver/fraser valley.. either your lying not knowing about it.. or completely out of it.... anyways... when this bottoms out.. buy in... long term.. real estate always goes up....
You should apply for Tiff's job.
Great video and advice.
Only one comment regarding the bottom of the markets.: I recently read that in US previous market crash started in 2007 and the bottom was reached in 2012.
Right now we have a low inventory on market, after 6 months of decline, if will continue like that, probably the bottom will be 2-3 years from now
Could be.
What's in it for new home buyers
$500K off?
You predicting bottom timing sometime in q3 2023. How about the price bottom ball park price? Early 2021, pre pandemic or something else?
Bottom could be a year ya. We could lose 2020 prices if rates keep going.
@@SteveKarrasch It should go up a couple times more though at a smaller pace before a pause.
@@cricketlovervaruns likely.
@@SteveKarrasch On average, detached went up 800K and TH went up 400K in 2 years. It definitely was neither supply issue nor immigration for this steep rise, both these have existed in Canada for ever.
A further 300K fall in houses and 200K in THs to erase all 2020 gains is easy if rates remain elevated for another 1 year.
Sad part is, even then it won't be possible for majority to buy, as monthly payment won't be any different from Feb 2022.
Banks and Govt. have screwed the future of Canadians forever by their stupid policy of distributing free money and keeping low rates forever.
Qa
Quality assurance?