Randomness is Random - Numberphile

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  • Опубліковано 30 вер 2024
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КОМЕНТАРІ • 1,3 тис.

  • @sharkinahat
    @sharkinahat 5 років тому +4208

    Never bet money against a mathematician, especially if he gets to set the rules.

    • @Fudmottin
      @Fudmottin 5 років тому +159

      Casinos are the mathematicians.

    • @nathanbrown8680
      @nathanbrown8680 5 років тому +174

      Never bet money against anyone who gets to set the rules. Mathemeticians might stack the deck more subtly, but letting the other guy set the rules is just begging to have the deck stacked one way or another.

    • @Schoko4craft
      @Schoko4craft 5 років тому +131

      escpecially when he bets 99.99$ more than you exspected

    • @ClovisChitwood
      @ClovisChitwood 5 років тому +50

      @@nathanbrown8680 Lee Trevino put it very eloquently. if someone bets you the ace of spades will jump out of a deck of cards and spit cider in your ear. Dont take the bet unless you want an ear full of cider.

    • @Grubiantoll
      @Grubiantoll 5 років тому +14

      I wouldn''t be surprised if most of casinos automatically blacklists all the better known mathematicians and people who has math degrees

  • @kauefr
    @kauefr 5 років тому +3295

    "Half is pretty significant when we're talking about probabilities, right? It's like... half."
    Get this man the Nobel of Mathematics.

    • @deanwinchest3906
      @deanwinchest3906 5 років тому +7

      It's like half skill but only 50 percent luck... Or 51/49‽ 48/52.. 53/47 maybe😧 It might vary dependant on the cola-

    • @Rekko82
      @Rekko82 5 років тому +39

      He would be the first to get it. You know like like first then. LOL

    • @JimmyLundberg
      @JimmyLundberg 5 років тому +26

      @@Rekko82 And the second year, if he didn't win it again by saying something even more profound, he'd have won it 50% of the time. That's like... half.

    • @chamranknebter
      @chamranknebter 5 років тому +5

      From my experience in gambling, 50:50 are the WORST odds.

    • @dasaggropop1244
      @dasaggropop1244 5 років тому +6

      but is it the bigger half, or the smaller half?

  • @SignalsMusicStudio
    @SignalsMusicStudio 5 років тому +407

    Excellent video once again, Simon's enthusiasm is contagious

  • @Kapin05
    @Kapin05 5 років тому +2675

    "Randomness is Random"
    "Half is Half"
    Next up on Numberphile:
    "One is Not Two"

    • @grieferjones2237
      @grieferjones2237 5 років тому +90

      “An integer is an integer, you can’t just say it’s a half!”

    • @Marre2795
      @Marre2795 5 років тому +24

      "1 is not a Prime"

    • @xhourglazzezx
      @xhourglazzezx 5 років тому +55

      Pi is 3, e is 3, Infinity is -1/12

    • @voltagedrop
      @voltagedrop 5 років тому +31

      What's done is done. It is what it is, but a man's got to do what a man's got to do.

    • @munjee2
      @munjee2 5 років тому +3

      They actually did that already in dividing by zero video

  • @samishah6710
    @samishah6710 5 років тому +472

    The fallacy would actually take 10% Luck
    20% Skill
    15% Concentrated power of will
    5% Pleasure
    50% Pain
    And a 100% Reason to Remember the Name

  • @willful759
    @willful759 5 років тому +515

    Brady just got *SCAMMED*

  • @TapadeepChakraborty
    @TapadeepChakraborty 5 років тому +584

    Thanks man...can't wait to bankrupt my friends

    • @gyh123
      @gyh123 5 років тому +38

      (Gets bankrupted.)

    • @Lattamonsteri
      @Lattamonsteri 5 років тому +16

      Think of all the kids that Simon has bankrupted xD

    • @Theo_Caro
      @Theo_Caro 5 років тому +11

      (Doesn't have friends.)

    • @unounk9415
      @unounk9415 5 років тому +1

      So just because the guest is a J e w, the episode had to be about coins?

    • @timothygerke6982
      @timothygerke6982 5 років тому

      Hopefully your friends don't watch Numberphile

  • @alejondelacruz5096
    @alejondelacruz5096 5 років тому +114

    Just bankrupted my siblings. more of these pls. i need money.

  • @thebreakfast8055
    @thebreakfast8055 5 років тому +194

    This is like when my brother said to pick up a random card of the deck, I picked the very top one and he said to me that I have to be serious.

  • @Triumvirate888
    @Triumvirate888 5 років тому +1085

    Do the REVERSE GAMBLER'S FALLACY next time, please! It will blow people's minds.

    • @xyzct
      @xyzct 5 років тому +98

      Yeah, thanks for that. I was just reading up on it on Wikipedia. Interesting. So is this related to people thinking that if some other fool has played a slot machine for some time and left it, that it is now "primed" to pay out? Or similarly, that if a person feeds a slot machine all day, goes to get more quarters, and comes back only to find some other slob put in one quarter and hit that jackpot, that the first guy's quarters "primed" the machine?

    • @lindhe
      @lindhe 5 років тому +15

      I have not heard of this! Cool. Now I don't know if I want to read about it, or wait with the spoilers until he makes a video about it...

    • @klaxoncow
      @klaxoncow 5 років тому +158

      @@xyzct Well, a slot machine is a poor example, in that those things are not actually random.
      Indeed, inside many machines, there's actually a "payout" dial. You can set the machine to return, say, 5% or 10% or 15% of its takings.
      And this will modify the machine's behaviour to pay out, if it hasn't paid out in a while, and has dropped below the "payout" dial's percentage value, and in the other direction, it'll hold onto the money and not pay out when paid out too much.
      So, in fact, gamblers talking about "primed" machines are not wrong, but only because these machines are, in fact, not truly random.
      As I like to point out, look at Las Vegas. The most extravagant city on the planet. You really think that its owners are fairly gambling its continued existence on the back of a genuinely random process every single night?
      All these games are rigged. It's just easier to spot with some of them than others.
      The easiest to see how this "rigging of the game" works is Roulette, because it lays out the arithmetic right in front of you. Just compare the odds against the payouts.
      Odds of a single number: 35 to 1 (or 2.85%) versus payout on a single number: 2.7% (European) or 2.6% (American).
      And the more the game is played - by ANY player, as this is irrelevant to the house, as long as they're always players playing - then the closer the actual outcome gets to the theoretical results and that 0.15% or 0.25% difference guarantees the house an overall victory.
      Let's create a similar game. You ante up a pound and we roll a dice. If you guess the number on the dice, then you win £5. If you get it wrong, then I keep the pound.
      The more we play, the closer to theoretical odds the actual results will tend towards. So, at that limit, what's really going on here is that you're giving me £6 for every £5 I give you, and I'm up a pound.
      As long as people keep playing my game - and, from my perspective, it's perfectly irrelevant whether it's one person playing over and over again, or a different person each time - I'm slowly racking up all those £1 profits into a very sizeable "college fund" for the kids.
      None of these games are actually truly random. They're just rigged to give off the appearance of such.
      But, if you think about it, of course these businesses are not playing fair - as they'd be intrinsically risking their ability to pay rent, feed the family and continue to exist every single night.
      And that's no way to run a business. You wouldn't remain in business long, if that were truly your business strategy.
      Of course it's totally rigged. Just look at the mansions that the casino owners live in, compared to the shitholes that addicted problem gamblers can't afford to pay the rent on.

    • @xyzct
      @xyzct 5 років тому +7

      @@klaxoncow Thanks for the reply. Yes, I understand everything you said here. So let me modify my examples to include fictional random slot machines. Are those examples then manifestations of the Reverse Gambler's Fallacy?

    • @volbla
      @volbla 5 років тому +48

      Everything i find about "reverse gambler's fallacy" is exactly the same principle as the gambler's fallacy. The notion that past events influence future ones in random sequences. Protip: they don't (ツ)

  • @JJ-kl7eq
    @JJ-kl7eq 5 років тому +272

    I would have wagered the mortgage on the house on the last bet. I read about this in a book.
    Published by Random House.

    • @AMR-555
      @AMR-555 5 років тому +3

      How did you know?

    • @CandidDate
      @CandidDate 4 роки тому +1

      Is that some kind of double pun?

  • @bradburyrobinson
    @bradburyrobinson 5 років тому +505

    Today I learnt:
    Random is Random
    Half is Half

    • @SakosTechSpot
      @SakosTechSpot 5 років тому +5

      But did you learn why?

    • @bradburyrobinson
      @bradburyrobinson 5 років тому +2

      @@possibilityspace - Close enough!

    • @bradburyrobinson
      @bradburyrobinson 5 років тому +2

      @@SakosTechSpot - I'm happy with just learning 'something', most of the videos I'm just confused.

    • @Chris-bm5qd
      @Chris-bm5qd 5 років тому

      Half of what is half?

    • @randompersson4924
      @randompersson4924 4 роки тому

      Can confirm.
      Am random.

  • @MagnusSkiptonLLC
    @MagnusSkiptonLLC 5 років тому +784

    I flipped a coin 20 times and got HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH.
    In retrospect, I probably shouldn't have used a trick double-headed coin.

    • @medexamtoolscom
      @medexamtoolscom 5 років тому +36

      It wouldn't need to be a trick double-headed coin to get that result with me, all it would require is that there be incredibly dire consequences for me if tails doesn't come up once.

    • @Tedmusic16
      @Tedmusic16 5 років тому +33

      Damn, you got a lot of head

    • @dollarking9641
      @dollarking9641 5 років тому +2

      Give me a head

    • @Sylocat
      @Sylocat 5 років тому +1

      Edgar, is that you?

    • @dqrksun
      @dqrksun 3 роки тому +2

      Got us the first half, not gonna lie

  • @ilmalocchio
    @ilmalocchio 5 років тому +89

    Starts off with a big action sequence and then becomes formulaic.
    ”A bit like this video."
    lol

  • @felipereigosa96
    @felipereigosa96 5 років тому +59

    His laughter, especially after he wins the 100 is brilliant.

  • @haipengli4769
    @haipengli4769 5 років тому +334

    random is not mixed up. Good point

    • @nameforcomments4092
      @nameforcomments4092 5 років тому +24

      I also loved "randomness is lumpy" and plan to use that whenever possible.

    • @vivekmathur3514
      @vivekmathur3514 5 років тому

      Whod'a thunk

    • @iidtxbc
      @iidtxbc 4 роки тому +1

      I didn't quite get the meaning of "random is not mixed up", if you see my comment, please drop your comment.

    • @kyo1546
      @kyo1546 4 роки тому +12

      @@iidtxbc they're saying that just because something is random doesn't mean its jumbled. Like if you have to randomize a sequence consisting of A, B, and C the sequence will not always lack repeats. We fall into the trap of think that random means the next result needs to be different from the previous result but thats hardly ever true.

    • @imadetheuniverse4fun
      @imadetheuniverse4fun 4 роки тому +2

      random need not be mixed up* maybe?

  • @naikrovek
    @naikrovek 5 років тому +944

    If Thanos really wiped out half the universe, chosen randomly, there would be planets where no one died, leaving an untouched planet, and planets where every last living being died, leaving an abandoned planet.

    • @albericponcedeleon2696
      @albericponcedeleon2696 5 років тому +176

      Depends on how he chose who died and who lived. He could've pooled all living beings in the universe like you suggested or he could've chosen randomly within each planet or even within species. There are a few ways to get to that 50% dusting.

    • @wurttmapper2200
      @wurttmapper2200 5 років тому +63

      Alberic Ponce de Leon That wouldn't be random then.

    • @sajukkhar
      @sajukkhar 5 років тому +46

      If the population of the entire universe is in the quadrillions then the chance of you knowing someone that died is infinitesimal.

    • @albericponcedeleon2696
      @albericponcedeleon2696 5 років тому +128

      @@wurttmapper2200 true, the method would most likely be pseudo-random but the other theme of Thanos' plan was balance. If a planet is unaffected by the snap, then his rebalancing would have failed. If a planet is left devoid of life, then his plan also failed because the intent was to preserve life for a longer period of time not end it completely.

    • @ethancheung1676
      @ethancheung1676 5 років тому +40

      Wurtt Mapper Thanos has always go to a planet and wipe half of that planet. So it would be innate to his wish that, he would wipe half of each planet randomly.

  • @MrProgrammerX
    @MrProgrammerX 5 років тому +403

    Randomness is random
    Infinity is infinite
    Two plus two is four minus one that's three quick mafs
    - numberphiles

    • @diegosanchez894
      @diegosanchez894 5 років тому +16

      50% is like, half.

    • @omri9325
      @omri9325 5 років тому +6

      Roses are roses

    • @OrangeC7
      @OrangeC7 5 років тому +6

      Violets are violets

    • @K1lostream
      @K1lostream 5 років тому +6

      Diego Sanchez - Wow, fifty percent?! That's almost fifty-one percent!!!

    • @idontevenknow3707
      @idontevenknow3707 5 років тому +4

      Lol! Its MAFS!!

  • @ObjectsInMotion
    @ObjectsInMotion 5 років тому +36

    In case you're wondering, the expected value for the length of the longest streak in 20 flips is in fact 3.65, so having a run of 4 in a row every time, while not random, is still expected. If you had to bet on a longest length, that's what you should bet on.

  • @rusiano-kq9ws
    @rusiano-kq9ws 3 роки тому +19

    To me, one of the best videos ever on numberphile. Randomness is random by definition yet we cannot really understand it nor accept it. Beautiful.

  • @fishingtrippy
    @fishingtrippy 5 років тому +63

    I love his laugh.. and the fact that he's laughing so hard about something like this!

  • @eyevenear
    @eyevenear 3 роки тому +62

    it's called "Memorylessness". in a true random system, every single result doesn't care about all the previous ones, so it can potentially give the same result forever

    • @farrel_ra
      @farrel_ra 2 роки тому +3

      Indeed, but if we somehow has a magic ability to suddenly conjure a string of 20 coin flip results, it would also work the same without talking about memory.
      If only.

    • @tomr6955
      @tomr6955 10 місяців тому

      But it doesn't.

  • @rafaellisboa8493
    @rafaellisboa8493 5 років тому +51

    very good video lollllll love this guy and the way he laughs cheers me up

  • @SaudBako
    @SaudBako 5 років тому +38

    The point is that randomness is not anti pattern.
    In other words, just because a process is random doesn't mean it would exclude oganization.

    • @otakarbeinhauer
      @otakarbeinhauer 3 роки тому +1

      but randomness is anti pattern.

    • @SaudBako
      @SaudBako 3 роки тому +7

      @@otakarbeinhauer Last year I meant to say: patterns do have a place and a probability in random sequences.

    • @brendawilliams8062
      @brendawilliams8062 3 роки тому

      @@SaudBako I agree

    • @anoirbentanfous
      @anoirbentanfous 2 роки тому

      @@SaudBako cannot be as it is a fallacy, with some hindsight bias we can see pattern of course, and we can even sort of try to predict it and get confident about it, but it is just randomness, and it behaves the way that is opposite to patterns...

    • @dark6.63E-34
      @dark6.63E-34 2 роки тому +1

      @@anoirbentanfous
      Organization is a subset in randomness

  • @RichMitch
    @RichMitch 5 років тому +261

    Bob Ross looks well

    • @andie_pants
      @andie_pants 5 років тому +37

      Happy little probabilities!

    • @123coolmik
      @123coolmik 5 років тому +4

      I scrolled through the comments just to see if someone had mentioned Bob Ross.

    • @RichMitch
      @RichMitch 5 років тому +2

      @@123coolmik And here we are! Nice to meet you 👍

    • @ashuthoshbharadwaj6703
      @ashuthoshbharadwaj6703 5 років тому +10

      @@andie_pants you mean happy little probabilitrees

    • @alexandrecolautoneto7374
      @alexandrecolautoneto7374 5 років тому +1

      Showing some love to you guys

  • @ruby8372
    @ruby8372 5 років тому +56

    And randomness is very LUMPY!

    • @xl000
      @xl000 5 років тому +5

      like semen

    • @donfox1036
      @donfox1036 5 років тому +2

      So is quantum theory: that's its nature, besides jitteriness of course

  • @laradimello5791
    @laradimello5791 5 років тому +16

    I really like Simon, he explains perfectly what he was talking about and was pretty funny

  • @mickyr171
    @mickyr171 5 років тому +73

    By merely informing people of this you'll inevitably change the patterns of choice yeah?

    • @ddp9381
      @ddp9381 5 років тому +10

      MickyR absolutely, so reinforcing the point that humans are so far from random it’s silly.

    • @ProfessorPolitics
      @ProfessorPolitics 5 років тому +2

      But they'll still be patterns.

    • @ObjectsInMotion
      @ObjectsInMotion 5 років тому +17

      You think the gamblers fallacy is new? People have been trying to inform the public on this for centuries one youtube videos going to change nothing.

    • @chillinchum
      @chillinchum 5 років тому +6

      @@ObjectsInMotion So how come I always hear about it *outside* of schooling and such?
      Seriously, whoever has been trying to do that for centuries, like the school cirriculum creators? They've been doing a *horrible* job of it. (Imo, would be nice to see what a proper cirriculum looks like.)

    • @futurestoryteller
      @futurestoryteller 5 років тому

      No.

  • @EleetCanoe
    @EleetCanoe 5 років тому +3

    Don’t gamble, kids.

  • @BluecoreG
    @BluecoreG 5 років тому +71

    I always set the seed to 638474946383 because having the seed the same everytime is just as random as having any other seed.

    • @kuro13wolf
      @kuro13wolf 5 років тому +15

      I know you're joking but this goes completely against what was said in the video and I wonder what prompted you to say it.

    • @BluecoreG
      @BluecoreG 5 років тому +5

      @@kuro13wolf Leaving clued for the ARG.

  • @desromic
    @desromic 5 років тому +8

    Imagine if this guy was significantly less smart, that's what ALL of my friends are like.

  • @Ecl1psed276
    @Ecl1psed276 5 років тому +107

    What the actual heck, I made a computer program to do 20 flips for me, and it came up with
    "HTHTHHTHHTHTHHTHTHTT"
    THERE'S NOT EVEN A SINGLE STREAK OF 3, LET ALONE 4 LMAO
    what are the chances of that lol
    EDIT: the fourth time I ran it, it came up with a streak of seven tails in a row lol
    EDIT 2: the seventh time I ran it, it came up with TEN tails in a row. Nice

    • @MyCatFooed
      @MyCatFooed 5 років тому +8

      Well done!! Thanks for setting it up, running it, & sharing those results!

    • @tiikoni8742
      @tiikoni8742 5 років тому +4

      I'd say around 2,1%

    • @thatoneguy9582
      @thatoneguy9582 5 років тому +1

      Ecl1psed276
      I checked, about 0.7% if I actually did it right

    • @OriginalPiMan
      @OriginalPiMan 5 років тому +15

      @Alexander
      Their pseudo-randomness is still more random than people would usually come up with unassisted.

    • @stevieinselby
      @stevieinselby 5 років тому +2

      I did 20 runs of 20 flips. Of those, only 3 had a maximum run of 3 or shorter, and 10 had a maximum run of 4 or shorter - the longest run was 8.
      Also only 8 had a split of 10/10 or 11/9, with 7 having a split of 13/7 or wider, up to 15/5.

  • @voltagedrop
    @voltagedrop 5 років тому +47

    Poker players, who can gain an advantage if they can be unpredictable, use lots of tricks to try to generate randomness free of this kind of bias. Tricks include things like the position of the seconds hand of a clock, or color of the cards that have been dealt.

    • @wingracer1614
      @wingracer1614 5 років тому +5

      Yep. My watch comes in handy when I'm looking to mix up my play.

    • @Johnny-cz2wv
      @Johnny-cz2wv 5 років тому +3

      I think that’s bs, better to just choose the slightly better option. I’m never in a spot where I truly feel both options are exactly the same value. So why give up ev for the sake of balance?

    • @IgnisDomini97
      @IgnisDomini97 5 років тому +16

      This is literally how computers generate "random" numbers too, except they use the number of milliseconds since January 1st, 1970.
      Basically, you just described pseudorandom generation from a seed value.

    • @voltagedrop
      @voltagedrop 5 років тому +4

      @@Johnny-cz2wv How do you decide when to bluff?

    • @consciouspiedy5909
      @consciouspiedy5909 5 років тому

      I did a card experiment regarding allowing dealers to split cards or not. I found I won most if I don't allow.

  • @zblouite3336
    @zblouite3336 5 років тому +4

    And this, is why you better choose a long and easy memorable password than a short and complicated one.

  • @arcanics1971
    @arcanics1971 5 років тому +9

    "Half is pretty significant: it's like... half."
    Mathematical quote of 2018?

    • @JonCombo
      @JonCombo 5 років тому

      Random is random.

  • @Schlynn
    @Schlynn 5 років тому +52

    I love this guy.

  • @clarahowson2911
    @clarahowson2911 5 років тому +25

    What is it about mathematicians and sharpies?

    • @heyandy889
      @heyandy889 5 років тому +10

      in the beginning of numberphile around 2014(?) they used the brown paper just because it was spacious, and the marker just because it shows up really well on camera. over time the brown paper became somewhat of a symbol for the channel because they always use it.

    • @xl000
      @xl000 5 років тому +1

      They imitate Trump..

    • @MrCmon113
      @MrCmon113 5 років тому

      Nothing. It's just this channel.
      Mathematicians usually use computers or chalk.

  • @davidjohnson5635
    @davidjohnson5635 5 років тому +41

    I love how he nonchalantly admits to hustling small children XD

  • @christianp7200
    @christianp7200 5 років тому +9

    when i have to come up with a sequence of coin tosses in my head, sometimes it happens that a coin lands on its edge!

  • @davejacob5208
    @davejacob5208 5 років тому +68

    the statement "that sequence is not random" is a bit strange, since a random generator CAN produce any sequence with the same likelyhood. it is just that this KIND of sequence is less likely than others.

    • @Swarm_
      @Swarm_ 5 років тому +9

      Yes it could be random, but the fact that he could predict it this well means that he either got lucky or that there's a pattern.

    • @davejacob5208
      @davejacob5208 5 років тому +14

      @@Swarm_ i know. my point is basically that every pattern can be the product of a random "mechanism" (guess a mechanism i per se not random, but you probably get what i mean - a random "cause" ? )
      would be nice to have a more detailed explanation / definition of what it means to be random in maths

    • @Rithmy
      @Rithmy 5 років тому +4

      @@davejacob5208
      randomness is if you cant predict it. With that said the definition depends on our knowledge. The question is if there even is somethin like true randomness. What would an omniscient person say?

    • @cryme5
      @cryme5 5 років тому +7

      I think he means that this sequence doesn't seem to be generated from a uniform random process

    • @davejacob5208
      @davejacob5208 5 років тому +3

      @@Rithmy that is most likely not the definition IN MATHS. since there are no causes to describe in maths. nothing to "predict".

  • @diezgp
    @diezgp 5 років тому +8

    This reminds me of the time Apple had to change the "randomness" of the shuffle function that iPods had. The people felt that it wasn't "random" enough because of the streaks that made them listen to some songs many times. Funny.

    • @d95mback
      @d95mback 4 роки тому +1

      Well, shuffle means a permutation of the songs, so you'd probably want to listen to them all, not just in the original order.

  • @CanadianLoveKnot
    @CanadianLoveKnot 5 років тому +5

    When he asked me to flip a coin in my head 20 times, I immediately thought, 20 heads.

  • @HeavyboxesDIYMaster
    @HeavyboxesDIYMaster 5 років тому +58

    All the coin flips I did in my head were heads. That's weird.

    • @futurestoryteller
      @futurestoryteller 5 років тому +8

      All the coin flips I did in my head landed on their sides. That's weird.

    • @TruthNerds
      @TruthNerds 5 років тому

      @@futurestoryteller "SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS" - caller always loses if he says head or tail! XD

    • @VanessaMagick
      @VanessaMagick 5 років тому +1

      Please trade in your brain for one with real coins

    • @The9thDoctor
      @The9thDoctor 5 років тому

      @@VanessaMagick only $599.99 for replacement brain coins sold separately

    • @vekyll
      @vekyll 5 років тому +2

      Maybe if you did them in your tail, they'd be tails.

  • @Yakoable
    @Yakoable 5 років тому +6

    Randomness is amazing. On this topic, I recently read up on kolmogorov complexity and I loved it. I'm pretty sure it would make a great numberphile video too!
    Keep up the good work Brady, cheers from France.

  • @JoshuaZamrycki
    @JoshuaZamrycki 5 років тому +3

    But... what ALGORITHM is Simon using in his head to determine when he should raise the stakes and by how much? In this example, he went to $20 on the fourth guess. If he had lost that individual wager, what would he have done next and why? He seemed pretty confident that he would walk away the winner by the end, so I'm sure he has some sort of methodology. I need to know!

    • @dekippiesip
      @dekippiesip 2 роки тому

      This has to be based on psychology and empirical studies rather than pure mathematics or pattern recognition. Humans generally have a certain tendency to simulate randomness, and if you know what it is you can exploit it.

  • @johnchessant3012
    @johnchessant3012 5 років тому +23

    13:20 Brady steals the $120

    • @abbiking3910
      @abbiking3910 6 місяців тому

      Congrats, you're one of the few commenters that noticed that! Most of the others seem to have missed that part...

  • @gressorialNanites
    @gressorialNanites 5 років тому +4

    Wow. I played along, and out of my 20 imaginary coin tosses, the first 10 go EXACTLY like Brady's ones. How??
    (I also have 2 more streaks of 3, but not any longer ones. It is an interesting topic :) )

  • @KRYPTOS_K5
    @KRYPTOS_K5 4 роки тому +1

    Very bright explanation especially on the ontology (not the calculation which remains implicit). Now I ask about DNA and the all "ballpark" where we let to live be in... Where is the ultimate non randomness in the universe as a whole? Is it In the nature or in the mind only?

  • @Veptis
    @Veptis 5 років тому +16

    So 20 is like 2^4.33? So the most likely longer streak is between 5 and 4 in a 20 Laplace set?

  • @usmh
    @usmh 5 років тому +1

    For anyone interested, the designers of Winamp or Windows Media Player or some such software had to deal with this when the e-mails criticizing the shuffle function of their player just kept coming in. People would complain about how the player played songs that were right next to each other ALL THE TIME!!1 In reality, it was coded to perfect randomness but what people really wanted with shuffle was to get songs far away from each other, so eventually they actually coded a "controlled random" kind of shuffle, which did exactly that.

  • @IlHansenIl
    @IlHansenIl 4 роки тому +4

    Simon seems like such a nice guy and these two really make some entertaining videos!

  • @nicholas3354
    @nicholas3354 Рік тому +1

    What would be incredibly unlikely, is if someone went through life without witnessing anything incredibly unlikely happening.

  • @twistedsim
    @twistedsim 5 років тому +12

    Wait, brady sequence is a random sequence, just not an uniformly distributed one.

    • @jonathanguthrie9368
      @jonathanguthrie9368 5 років тому +3

      Any sequence that you can name is potentially a random sequence. The randomness of a sequence is a property of how it is generated, not what it is.
      Some sequences are more likely than others. Simon was playing the odds in his betting because Brady's sequence is unlikely, but that doesn't mean it's impossible for that sequence to be generated randomly. In fact, one of the higher-order tests of random sequences is that they sometimes fail lower-order tests of randomness.
      When I was generating the random sequence for my WEP key (112 random bits) I got a run of 13 zeroes in a row, and I almost couldn't bear to use it because it doesn't "look random" enough but I was flipping four fair coins, so I managed to overcome my prejudices.

    • @twistedsim
      @twistedsim 5 років тому +1

      @@jonathanguthrie9368 So you are saying to me that you can precisely guess which side Brady gonna choose for the 21th coin? :)

    • @twistedsim
      @twistedsim 5 років тому +1

      @@jonathanguthrie9368 But i understand your point ! Don't get me wrong, we are just arguing on word definition. I know I do follow your definition of randomness.
      I have a question for you, Would you classify the pi digit of random, Even if we can generated them from a known algorithm ?

    • @jonathanguthrie9368
      @jonathanguthrie9368 5 років тому +2

      @@twistedsim Random means unpredictable. If you can predict the next digit by some means, then it is (by definition) not random.
      The thing is, I don't think our positions are that far apart. If I am understanding the way that Simon is betting, he's looking for a run of two and betting that the next one will break the streak. So, the 21st "coin flip" is hard to predict in this case, but the ends of runs of two are not.
      As far as your question about the digits of pi, that is a very interesting question. I thought I knew what answer to give, and then I thought about it and I wasn't sure. The other day I was watching a video that touched on randomness. I don't remember the details, but the point was that some sequences can be treated as random from one perspective when they are perfectly deterministic from another. I had to stop and think about what that implied, and I'm not sure it's helpful.
      Your question led me to think about the book of random digits that Rand put out a while back. Is it random? I mean it says so on the label, but I bet you can always predict the next one given a long enough sequence of digits from the book. If you have the book, that is.
      How about this: If you list all the digits of pi that sequence is not random because you can always "predict" the next one, but if you have a list of some of the digits of pi, they are random because I would expect that every finite sequence of digits would appear infinite times in pi. Of course, that's a conjecture. Proving it is well beyond my ability.

    • @GummieI
      @GummieI 5 років тому +1

      The digit sequence of pi can be generated randomly, used to purposely do math involving pi, no ofc its is not random, but if you ran a (pseudo)random-generator(since we can't actually make a true random generator) enough times eventually at some point it will generate the sequence of pi (within the amount of digit we make it generate ofc), this could happen on the first run, or it could happen after a million runs, or ever later, and when that does happen then yes the pi like sequence would be random, it is ALL about the context, not the sequence itself

  • @2k10clarky
    @2k10clarky 9 місяців тому +1

    When I first intuited the gamblers fallacy it was by realising that 5 heads in a row is exactly the same chance as HTHTH or THTHT its just one permutation and not special in any way

  • @BrendanGuildea
    @BrendanGuildea 5 років тому +3

    LOVE IT!!!!! Great laugh at the end! Well done! My favourite numberphile contributor!

  • @indef2def
    @indef2def Рік тому +1

    My instinct was to create a sequence based upon the odd/even position in the alphabet of each letter in the caption at the moment when you asked for it. A moment later, I realized for the first time in my life that all of the vowels are odd. Zoinks!

  • @Sylocat
    @Sylocat 5 років тому +3

    That bit at 7:04 is only telling part of the story. To me, the more fascinating thing is, that if you flip a coin 4 times, all 16 of those outcome patterns are equally likely. There are way more ways to get two heads and two tails than there are to get four of a kind, but only one way to get them in a specific order.
    Once you understand that, a lot of things about randomness make more sense.

  • @sams68456
    @sams68456 5 років тому +2

    A tip for creating random sequences from Marcus du Sautoy is to use the digits of 'pi' or 'e' to make your choice

  • @santiagosanz4157
    @santiagosanz4157 5 років тому +4

    1:52 when do you achieve that laughter

  • @chesh1re_cat
    @chesh1re_cat 5 років тому +2

    Simon is such a a jolly fellow, really proves that even for complicated math you can still have fun with it.
    (Also: Kinda surprised not a single school kid picked like only tails because you know: kids)

  • @gayatrimandhane3087
    @gayatrimandhane3087 5 років тому +4

    I tried it and this was the result !!! Very surprised
    TTTTHHTHHHTHHTHT *HHHHHHHHHH* THHTTTTTT

  • @tomr6955
    @tomr6955 10 місяців тому +1

    Gambler's fallacy while betting big on the guy not giving many streaks ha ha

  • @atallsteve
    @atallsteve 5 років тому +3

    I didn't know that randomness is random. I've learned something new today.

  • @nop434
    @nop434 5 років тому +1

    I work as a game developer. I've learned that players are complaining that the game is cheating when you use real randomness. So I used permutations instead to make them happy.

    • @The9thDoctor
      @The9thDoctor 5 років тому

      What kind of thing do you need randomness for that you could say is cheating...??

  • @victorpessanha2500
    @victorpessanha2500 5 років тому +4

    Could someone explain to me how did he get to that number at 6:18, plz? I'm not that great at combinatorics, even though it doesn't seem to be that hard to calculate this one...

    • @janus11
      @janus11 5 років тому +1

      Victor Pessanha all also thought it would be easy at first glance, but it’s not. Untill someone can prove me wrong

    • @victorpessanha2500
      @victorpessanha2500 5 років тому +1

      Janus 1305 indeed! This counting part of combinatorics can be pretty frustating sometimes as well. I mean, since there can be so many possible outcomes it's quite easy to eventually get lost/tired if you're not 100% as to how to properly even begin the counting

    • @TheLoraymond1993
      @TheLoraymond1993 5 років тому

      For a start, for a seq of 20 coin tosses, write 0 if two consecutive tosses are equal, and 1 otherwise.
      So you get a string of 19 bits.
      Now the question becomes: how many 19 bit seq such that there are no 3 consecutive 0

    • @TheLoraymond1993
      @TheLoraymond1993 5 років тому

      Such seq would need at least 6 1s. First you fix the number of 1s in the seq, then you count how many ways to allocate the 1s to prevent a streak of 3 0s.

    • @100najaja
      @100najaja 5 років тому

      2**20 is pretty small, could've easily calculated it on a computer

  • @alspezial2747
    @alspezial2747 5 років тому +1

    T T H T T T H H T T H T T T T H T H H H
    so the first 20 digits of pi are about 50% random.

  • @nadirbaitsaleem7270
    @nadirbaitsaleem7270 5 років тому +54

    This is actually an interesting thought.
    This is what separates* theoretical probability from experimental probability.

    • @RBuckminsterFuller
      @RBuckminsterFuller 5 років тому +7

      sepArate

    • @Ogrecrusher
      @Ogrecrusher 5 років тому +42

      In theory there's no difference between theory and practice, but in practice there is.

    • @nicfink5310
      @nicfink5310 5 років тому +18

      @@Ogrecrusher I prefer this one: "The difference between theory and practise is significantly bigger in practise than in theory."

    • @nadirbaitsaleem7270
      @nadirbaitsaleem7270 5 років тому +2

      @@RBuckminsterFuller Thanks, I was wondering why spell check highlighted that.

    • @TednTin
      @TednTin 5 років тому

      @@nicfink5310 I think this is much better "There is no difference between theory and practise but the difference is more apparent in practice than in theory."

  • @dzarko55
    @dzarko55 3 роки тому +1

    I think a decent way to generate random numbers in your head is to do just a little bit of math. Like here, it's either 1 or 2, so a quick way would be to pick a "random" 3-digit number, and seeing if the sum of the digits is even or not. Its not random, but it's *more* random

  • @FourTwentyMagic
    @FourTwentyMagic 5 років тому +3

    I came up with an interesting problem a while ago that I think relates to the topic in this video. Since I am not a mathematician, I have no idea how to approach it. Maybe someone could enlighten me? Anyways here's the problem:
    A string of 1s and 0s can be generated in two ways. One way is to choose either a 0 or 1 for the next character of the string. The other is to decide how many times you want to put a 0 or 1, depending on which one you start with, and then alternating between 0 and 1, each time choosing how many times you want to repeat that number. An example:
    Method 1:
    Choose 1 Choose 0 Choose 0 Choose 1 Choose 0 Choose 1 Choose 1 Result: 1001011
    Method 2: 1x 1, 2x 0, 1x 1, 1x 0, 2x 1 Result: 1001011
    As you can see, the resulting string is the same.
    Now suppose, using method 1, we generate strings in which each character has a 50/50 chance of being a 1 or 0. How would you use method 2 to generate strings that are statistically indistinguishable from those generated by method 1?
    I suppose you need to randomly choose the first digit in method 2 and also have the condition that you can’t write a digit 0 times.
    Thank you for your input!

    • @KohuGaly
      @KohuGaly 5 років тому +7

      In random binary sequence A streak of N has the probability of occurring proportional to 1/2^N. To make the second method have the same distribution as the first one, you pick streak of 1 with probability 1/2, streak of 2 with probability 1/4, 3->1/8,4->1/16. etc.

    • @Rithmy
      @Rithmy 5 років тому

      You basically have to use method 1 to generate the length of the streaks to make method 2 the same as method one. This would result in those streak probabilitys mentioned above. (1/2^streak_counter) . It would be the same as method one, because method one also alternates between 0 and 1 after ending a streak with a random length.

    • @LokiClock
      @LokiClock 5 років тому

      In method 2, do you have to alternate H & T, or can you roll 3xH, 2xH, 1xT for HHHHHT?

  • @IkeFoxbrush
    @IkeFoxbrush 4 роки тому +2

    Casinos: make millions and cost gamblers a fortune
    No gambling person ever: "I'm starting to see a pattern here..."

  • @emersoncpp
    @emersoncpp 5 років тому +8

    Easy money!

  • @fyukfy2366
    @fyukfy2366 5 років тому +2

    I have no doubt that he's right, but if the flip that happened before doesn't matter, why does it matter how many flips there were before? (AKA the amount of flips total)

  • @AstroTibs
    @AstroTibs 5 років тому +6

    "I'm gonna try and make money...."
    >Gives money
    >Can only break even in best-case scenario

  • @Yerrik
    @Yerrik 3 роки тому +2

    I think this is my favorite Numberphile video ever. I love Simon Pampena's personality so much.

  • @lukasegeling5205
    @lukasegeling5205 5 років тому +6

    Title: Randomness is random.
    Yes, the floor here is made out of floor.

  • @metadaat5791
    @metadaat5791 5 років тому +2

    "... the DNA sequence contains so much information, it actually -- in a way -- contains lots of patents."
    I know it's just Simon's accent, but still eerily accurate ;-)

  • @potassiumpermangante
    @potassiumpermangante 5 років тому +5

    Great video

  • @ProfessorPolitics
    @ProfessorPolitics 5 років тому +1

    So you're telling me that the people who go "I'm so random RAWR XD" are, in fact, not random?

  • @VanVlearMusic
    @VanVlearMusic 5 років тому +3

    I love Simon

  • @camerongray7767
    @camerongray7767 4 роки тому +1

    Ok before you click read more you need to guess heads or tails then tell me if you get it right.
    Heads

  • @raj.qwerty
    @raj.qwerty 5 років тому +6

    Mr. Pampena's laugh is delightful! Also, wonderful Numberphile video!

  • @malcolmthebear
    @malcolmthebear 5 років тому +1

    This dude looks like a cross between Doc Oc in the Tobey Maguire Spiderman and the chemist from Inception.

  • @NFSHeld
    @NFSHeld 5 років тому +5

    function randomNumber() {
    return 4; // chosen by fair dice roll
    }

  • @Jaylooker
    @Jaylooker 4 роки тому +1

    Randomness is all possible patterns. This just explores a subset of them

  • @oanes8447
    @oanes8447 5 років тому +15

    "you owe me 20 bucks" reminded me of Django unchained when he kills the sheriff

  • @SquirrelASMR
    @SquirrelASMR 2 роки тому +1

    And this was the last time he was featured in a numberphile video

  • @kimschroder9354
    @kimschroder9354 5 років тому +5

    He looks a bit unhealthy. Like swelled in comparison to before...

  • @algumnomeaihehe
    @algumnomeaihehe 2 роки тому +1

    this title and thumbnail gives off major tim and eric vibes

  • @dipaksapkota9612
    @dipaksapkota9612 5 років тому +27

    I was born random.

    • @Rekko82
      @Rekko82 5 років тому +1

      You don't know who is your father then.

    • @murrfeeling
      @murrfeeling 5 років тому +3

      Not exactly born, but...
      -shuffles a deck of 150,288,120 sperm cells-

    • @ClovisChitwood
      @ClovisChitwood 5 років тому +1

      All hail the king of amber

  • @sarthakvarshney7784
    @sarthakvarshney7784 5 років тому +2

    "...you start with a big action sequence and then it becomes formulaic"
    "Bit like this video"
    That was genius!

  • @matthiashannesson7239
    @matthiashannesson7239 5 років тому +7

    Finally! Early for a numberphile video!

  • @L0j1k
    @L0j1k 4 роки тому +4

    WE WANT MORE SIMON!

  • @peppybocan
    @peppybocan 5 років тому +21

    2^20 = mebibyte -megabyte- ;) :D

    • @Caraxian
      @Caraxian 5 років тому +6

      technically 2^20 bytes is a mebibyte
      megabyte is a million bytes exactly

    • @peppybocan
      @peppybocan 5 років тому +2

      @@Caraxian yup, my bad, actually.

  • @rkpetry
    @rkpetry 5 років тому +2

    *_...there are practical uses for knowing what randomness can-mean, e.g. in data reduction signal processing-representing codes as hyperdimensional polyhedra vs mere spheres..._*

  • @evaristegalois6282
    @evaristegalois6282 5 років тому +16

    Randomness in random?
    *RANDOMCEPTION*

  • @SirLightfire
    @SirLightfire 4 роки тому +1

    10:06 - 10:59, this sounds a lot like using a bunch of sine waves to generate a square wave. And now I'm wondering if you could use a method of summing bit patterns into each other as a PRNG (perhaps using the system millis time as a "pattern weight", ergo the seed)

  • @AlexiLaiho227
    @AlexiLaiho227 5 років тому +5

    yay! I love Simon!

  • @roverknight2502
    @roverknight2502 5 років тому +1

    Simon Pampena is my favorite Numbertitian

  • @paintingjo6842
    @paintingjo6842 5 років тому +8

    *FACT*
    Children are more random than adults

  • @Pheonix1328
    @Pheonix1328 5 років тому +1

    I still don't really understand the gambler's fallacy. Previous events don't influence new ones but flip a coin one hundred times and you'll almost never find heads or tails one hundred times in a row.

    • @charlesrv7
      @charlesrv7 5 років тому

      You are correct in "not understanding it". The "gambler's fallacy" makes no sense. See my comment to this video.