MILLIONS of US Corn/Soybean Bushels Lost in Flood: Why Don't Traders Care??
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- Опубліковано 1 лип 2024
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0:00 Flooding and Rain Totals
3:31 US Weather Forecast
6:13 USDA Preview
7:28 Russia Wheat Update
8:45 Export Sales
9:56 Home Prices Hit Record
11:26 Cattle on Feed
🌾📈 Agricultural Update: Weather Impacts, Crop Reports, and Market Dynamics 🌦️📉
Welcome back to our channel for a detailed analysis of recent developments in the agricultural sector. Let's dive into the impacts of weather conditions, upcoming USDA reports, and changes in market dynamics affecting US agriculture.
Severe Weather and Flooding Impact
Parts of South Dakota, Iowa, and Minnesota experienced heavy rainfall, resulting in significant flooding. In Minnesota, a peacetime emergency was declared with the National Guard activated to manage floodwaters. Northwest Iowa saw over 250 water rescues and considerable property damage, with ongoing concerns about flooding along the Missouri River and its tributaries. These conditions could affect crop health and delay farming activities in these crucial agricultural zones.
Corn Belt Weather Forecast
The US Corn Belt is expected to receive scattered rainfall over the next five days, with more widespread precipitation predicted in the 5-10 day period. Despite above-normal temperatures persisting, moisture levels are currently sufficient as the corn crop approaches pollination-a critical phase for determining yield outcomes.
USDA Reports Preview
The agricultural community is anticipating the USDA's Planted Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks report due this Friday. Expectations are set for a modest increase in US corn and soybean acreage from March intentions. June 1st stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat are projected to be significantly higher than last year, which could influence market prices and trading strategies.
Russian Crop Reseeding and Forecast
In Russia, despite early May frosts, the agriculture minister reported that most affected grain crops were successfully reseeded, maintaining the forecast for robust grain production this year. Adjustments in crop estimates by Russian consultancies and the USDA reflect ongoing adjustments to global supply expectations based on the latest agricultural data.
US Crop Sales and Home Market Trends
Corn export sales were notably weak last week, with Japan being the primary buyer. Conversely, soybean sales saw a significant uptick, led by purchases from China. In the real estate sector, US home prices reached a new record high in May, though high mortgage rates continue to suppress home sales, affecting broader economic sentiment.
Market Impact on Cattle
The latest Cattle on Feed report suggests a slightly bearish to neutral outlook for the cattle market, with placements exceeding expectations. This data is crucial for livestock producers and investors, indicating potential shifts in supply and pricing in the coming months.
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Good morning! What are your thoughts? Should the market have reacted to the flood situation?
I still think outside farm forces at work.
50% of the corn will not be knee high by the 4th of July. To much rain and cloudy days central mn.
Because farmers own majority of bushels yet, once traders own 70% they can double their money in a week.
No rain here in South Central pa. The threat of rain looked really promising yesterday but the rain passed to the north again
Rain makes grain theory is the strategy.
Dry year will scare you to death wet year will starve you to death grandpa always said it took me years to realize he was very right
Market isn't reacting cause flooding didn't happen in Chicago
Obviously the farmers must be the only ones that would profit from a market rally right now so that’s why the market doesn’t care. We could all go out and plow the crops under at this point and the traders still wouldn’t care.
Usda manipulates markets and reports so they can continue insider trading
Southern Minnesota has been hit over and over again. We have drown out acres.
Drove around 200 miles threw nd and sd this last weekend. Only saw one good field of corn around Aberdeen sd. The rest of the fields are full of sloughs and very behind from all the cold and rain.
Southwest Minnesota farmer here (Nobles County). Had over 13 inches of rain last week. Nearly all gravel roads were inaccessible Friday/Saturday. Likely had 20-30% of my crop under water for 24 hours.
Nw iowa is not any different. Only thing I would add was the soil profile was already full (10ish inches) before this We just had over a full profile dumped on a full profile in roughly 36 hours I saw full 80’s still flooded today. Bottom line it’s just like 93. They are going to lie and bs until the end users can’t find supply. Hoping by then the farmers have sold because they didn’t get a crop and needed the money. I contend the effects of 93 didn’t show up until mid late 94 was the same bs then rain makes grain there’s no problem here.
Same agruments the trade made in 2010 corn fell just below 3. By that fall the market jumped and went from 7 to 8 by the following spring.
Faribault county MN, i own about 100 acres of water at the moment. Anyone interested in some lake front property?
Is jet skiing allowed? Sorry for your flooding.
More like 10 to 17 inches of rain
I must be getting old because time sure flies, lately! Seems like not too long ago, the rivers were going dry. Good show...🇺🇸 👍☕
More rain over the weekend. Hard to get 28% N on most fields. Still impossible to make dry hay. Some fields still unplanted. NE WI.
North West Ind : "opinion" Flash drought with 1980's like Temps. Soar thumbs in fields popped. Very grateful for 1.3 inches of rain and cooler temps.
1988 and 2012 heat will return . I was 21 in 88 and remembered that was the hottest of any year since.
Central Ohio here, starting wheat today. Been hot and dry but now we're getting into wheat then straw here comes rain chances all week, you're welcome fellow Ohioans 😂
Meanwhile USDA map showing my area of New England in drought. Nevermind our soil moisture is so high our roads are sloughing.....
SC WI lots of water standing in places I haven’t seen before with more coming. The faster I drive past fields the better they look.
10-day forecast for Marshall Minnesota looks cold. Highs of only 70° lows of 50
As an outsider looking in your housing market is being manipulated, unregulated immigration so more people need housing and then not keeping pace with existing housing needs.
No shortage of land in the US for building homes so why is it not being done?
Supply and demand is a basic, it's obvious the demand is there, so not to build enough is a deliberate decision.
I think you can mark 10% of 30 million acres in MN, East SD, and North Iowa as a ZERO. Drove a large loop through that region late last week. Minnesota will NOT have huge yields like the last couple of years.
Maybe not enough for much of a rally in this market but I had hoped for some support at the very least.
nw central ohio, started srw wheat on friday and saturday , we're about half done. harvest is about 30 bushels less than last year. vom is super high. not going to double crop beans, going to take the extra time to cut back fencelines and haul manure on it. then a late summer chisel plowing. to get it ready for corn in 25.
ohio is in a drought, maybe close to being considered severe.
the uneducated economist says lumber futures are plummeting below the cost of production and to expect mill slow downs or closures.
Looking to start SRW wheat this week - NW Ohio. Finally got some rain on Sunday morning. .3 inches. Over the last 3 weeks that’s the total we had gotten previously. Corn and soybeans look good still even after the heatwave. Very little rolling going on in corn. But our later planted corn really needed that shot of moisture to get going.
I have a question about planted acres anyway..... Government takes at least half a month to count acres so this "report" would be based on June 1 estimates. Yes estimates.🤨 Cause that's ALL IT CAN BE. Why? Because us farmers have until July 15th "certify" what we planted this year.😏
Rain makes grain, your traders are like children these days.
The bushels will not be there this fall in MN
Or a large part of nw iowa
And It already was too wet well before this happened...
Could the poor economic conditions in China (massive Re problem) be an influencing factor on low demand?
Yes. Huge Brazilian crop are probably the bigger issue, however.
Ai running trades
Crops look awful in southern mn its not good
How close to report release date will USDA include latest (weather /trade) info?
Last year's report - see page 45: downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/j098zb09z/hh63v8465/zg64w269x/acrg0623.pdf
Market control
Think these latest big weather events are unusual ? A book published in 2023 called The Parrot and the Igloo says different.
India -Centre Imposes Stockholding Limit On Wheat To Check Hoarding, Ensure Price Stability
They will be up tomorrow! Famous last words.
Seriously. I think corn should be 4.70 now at least and soybeans 12.70.
West under water while Eastern cooks. Remember planting intension report? And we can't find how many millions of acres? Guess what we found end of June.😮 So uncle Sam can reduce yield now. But extra acres will make up for that. We're good shape.
What are ABCD trading? Is it important what they do?
If I use the view from my yard system of national yields corn should be $3.50 and beans $9.00. Have not ran a pivot yet.
You just solved in part the answer to the question of flooding and traders don't care.There are millions of acres of land that need irrigation and don't have it.Wet years produce above yields on this land.
Starting to see phytophthora in soybeans