Marble Race: Marble Survival 100 - Race 75
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- Опубліковано 26 вер 2024
- Marble Race: Marble Survival 100 - Race 75 with a course full of traps!
Now we are on 3/4 of the Marble Survival 100, with our top 12 marbles reaching this point, who will make it's way to the finish at first? Let's find out!
#marbleracing #marbleworld #marbleruns #jellesmarbles
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I am genuinely going to miss this series when it ends.
Same here.
I actually kind of prefer it to Marbula One (and I like M1). I haven't done the math (which I do want to go back and look at at some point - wonder if someone's done the analysis already) but M1, for the most part, feels... predictable. You start in the back, you end near the back. You start in the front, you end near the front. Every once in a while someone goes up or down a bunch of places but for the most part it feels static.
I like the chaos of these survival races, although it will be interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks as the number of marbles goes down and there is less potential for racers to collide.
Hopefully M1 begins right after this atarts
@@douglashudson4706 I'm wondering how difficult or chaotic it would be to add small obstacles to the race tracks in M1? Fidget spinners constantly spinning powered by a battery or the swatter forcing them to take a longer portion of the track to a shorter one? Would really mix up the races.
so true
I've been pulling for the ghost marble, since the ducks lost. At least I know the ghost marble will make the next round lol.
o'rangers for me but each week i feel like i will be moving on to the ghost marble. 😂
Hey, I like your thinking. I may use that after the O'rangers stop giving me mini heart attacks. Hope you don't mind. Thanks. 👍
Sad quacks
I’m rooting for my mom’s favorite, the Purple Rockets
You sure? The ghost marble did have that one DNF...
*FUN FACT:*
Racers that reach 50 total points after tomorrow’s race will be absolutely 100% safe from elimination. The racers currently in 2nd and 4th place need only 49 points to be absolutely safe.
So, by that math, the Oceanics would need a top three finish to be safe, while the Raspberry Racers need a top two finish to be safe.
@@cabutler1 To be absolutely 100% safe; no matter the results of the other racers in the next two races; then you are 100% correct. 👍
Here's the reasoning: there are currently 4 racers with 22 to 25 points. If they were to all come 1st to 4th in reverse order, then the bottom of the board would be 37-36-35-34 ; meaning anybody with 50 points will be safe. If any of those bottom 4 do worse, then the safe threshold is even lower: potentially as low as 39. Right now nobody is confirmed 100% safe, but realistically everyone from the Razzies up is in a really strong spot
@@vexfidel4127 The other way to math it is thusly: 6th place is worth 7 points this round. If you score 49 points, then you've by definition scored "above average", which means *someone* has to be below you.
@@vexfidel4127 The way I figured it out was similar.
First, racers need to have more points than 11th place to be safe. Since 12th place doesn’t matter, let’s just say the Indigo Stars get zeroes in the next two races.
Second, the top three point amounts racers can win in each race have a two point differential, 15, 13 & 11 points. Since the current 9th, 10th and 11th place racers only have a one point difference between them, the best they can do collectively (as a whole) would be for them to finish the next race 3rd-2nd-1st, and then 1st-2nd-3rd in the final race. This would give each racer an additional 26 points.
Finally, add 26 points to the racer currently in 11th place’s score, and you get 49. Which means that 50 points would be safe.
But… if you were to look at position count-back using the best possible future outcome as described above, the 9th-11th place racers’ best two finishes would be 15 & 11 points, 13 & 13 points, and 11 & 15 points. Team Primary and the Purple Rockets already have 15 & 13 point finishes. If either of them were to tie in points with any of the current 9th-11th place racers, they would be ranked ahead them. Therefore, Team Primary and the Purple Rockets only need 49 points to be safe.
I know I didn’t need to type this all out. I did it as a brain exercise. 🧠 🙂
When Greg has to mention the fact that you hadn’t been hit by an obstacle
This spoiler barrier is brought to you by a twelve minute delay to increase tension.
Lol
Brandon "The AK Guy" Herrera just presented his AK-50.
🤣✅
Monty Carlo Simulations:
Probability of advancing: [~100% means the sim recorded the team advanced in 100% of sims. But the team hasn't mathematically clinched yet, 100,000 simulations]
CHOC: ~100%
PRIM: ~100%
THUN: ~100%
PR: 99.99%
MY: ~100%
OCE: 99.96%
RR: 99.82%
O'RANG: 92.03%
JJ: 64.91%
LIME: 56.25%
BUMB: 47.52%
IS: 39.52%
Probability of clinching advancement next race:
CHOC: 97.88%
PRIM: 95.31%
THUN: 86.39%
PR: 71.13%
MY: 71.78%
OCE: 59.37%
RR: 53.4%
O'RANG: 13.02%
JJ: 0.06%
LIME: 0%
BUMB: 0%
IS: 0%
Does your simulation assume that each Marble will randomly finish in any given place, or are you using a strength formula?
@@thanetweyman8563 the former.
Notice Mandarin slightly slowing at the finish to give the limers and extra position. Risky move but if the fruit alliance sticks together I think it will pay off. Smart move looking out for his teammate
Nice gesture, Mandarin knows for sure how it is to struggle into the last few races. Lets hope they both make it into the top 10 🙏
🍊🍋🍈🔴
Aw man, I flinched at the site of Rezzy getting SMASHED by the ball bearing! Let's get back up to the top! Go Raspberry Racers!
Also way to go BonBon! You've been super consistent for pretty much all races!!!
A lot of marbles at the bottom of the standings WITH a podium finish. One good performance doesn't punch your ticket anymore, you have to gut out every race.
Slimelime was doing well last race and then suddenly disappeared and was in last
Exactly!!
Ay to be fair Slimelimes been swung by the battering ram 3 times this week to dead last
Diego pretty much needs two second place finishes at this point just to stay in the competition. Two third place finishes may not be enough if some combination of Jump, Slimelime, and Swax finish high enough in the last two races.
@@vamoscruceros I need slimelime to do well
Great job Shock! Keep up the momentum! ⚡️⚡️⚡️
huge race for my Mellow Yellow!!!
Almost a perfect race by them. MELLOW!
Really dominant display today at a critical time.
OUR BOY YELLAH DASHES THROUGH THE OBSTACLES LIKE THE DESERT WIND!
#Keepitmellow
I pull for what I call the the JSA (Jelle Space Alliance) comprised of Team Galactic, Purple Rockets, and Indigo Stars.
Don't forget the Solar Flares!
Jump is having a difficult week! Fingers crossed they get another win tomorrow to boost them up the order a bit.
Proud of how Sea's kept going, really hope they can be safe soon! #TidePride
Great to see Bonbon on top of the points for the first time.
And a great middle-of-the-pack finish. Keep it up, Bonbon!!!!!!
BonBon hasn’t finished outside the top half for this track
Consistency is key 😎
Spoiler brought to you by the bean counters, here's where we stand . . .
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Total needed to auto-qualify is 54 points after today's race. The top 6 teams have control of their own destiny and can qualify tomorrow with a good showing; the Raspberry Rangers, O'rangers, Jungle Jumpers, and Limers can also qualify depending how they finish, who they're ahead of, and by how much. Bumblebees and Indigo Stars are needing to have a good showing tomorrow. See you all tomorrow for the penultimate race before the cut.
Sometime in the 90’s:
Fortune Teller: As you approach middle age, you will find great joy in rooting for teams of marbles.
Me: Teams.
FT: Yes.
Me: Of marbles. Inanimate objects.
FT: Well they get pretty animated if you give them a push.
Me: You know what I mean. Why would I care about marbles?
FT: Teams of marbles.
Me: Get on with it.
FT: Well, they’re going to be in all these events, like their own Olympics and a Formula 1 race, but for marbles.
Me: What? “Marbula Racing?”
FT: Exactly!
Me: You HAVE to be kidding.
FT: No! There will be all these events, and marble crowds chanting for their favorites like “LIMETIME!” and “RO-HO ROLL-ERS!” Oh yeah, and there will be a marble commentator, this marble superfan named Rollo or something that will attend all the events and like hundreds of thousands of people will get into it…”
Me: I assume Rollo made his fortune in a marble quarry to afford the travel to all the events?
FT: Unclear. You start getting interested in these cobalt-colored ones first, but they don’t do so hot so it’s hard to build an attachment. But these raspberry-colored ones do much better so you start following them instead.
Me: So the entertainment I get as a middle aged man is going to consist of watching marbles go around a track and do “events” somehow and this is going to be interesting to me.
FT: Yes!
Me: …
FT: 🤗
Me: I want my money back.
totally expected mellow to go out week 1 after the recent form but so glad to see them almost into the final 10
#keepitmellow
Thank You Fidget Spinner and a little bit of Ricochet to bounce Second in this Race and Second In the Weekly Standing.
Good Job Aryp
❤️💛💙
Probabilities that teams will be eliminated after round 77:
== SPOILERS BELOW ==
Chocolatiers: 1 in 30 million
Team Primary: 1 in 4 million
Thunderbolts: 0.001%
Purple Rockets: 0.02%
Mellow Yellow: 0.02%
Oceanics: 0.1%
Raspberry Racers: 0.4%
O'rangers: 8.8%
Jungle Jumpers: 35.2%
Limers: 44.4%
Bumblebees: 52.7%
Indigo Stars: 58.3%
This is from simulating 500,000 races.
The chance of a DNF is estimated by the number of DNFs on the current track, as long as it falls into the range from 1% to 8%. After race 75, that's 2 in 60, or 3.3%.
Probabilities smaller than 1 in 100,000 (0.001%) are not estimated directly from the simulation, but are extrapolated using a best-fit function. Those are only approximate.
C'mon Swax! Just need to pull off two good runs, we know you've got it in you!
CHOCS IN FIRST?! OH BABY!!!
It's interesting because the farther along we get, the more the extra points for getting top 3 do for you percentage wise. Like back near the beginning, geting 1st with 45 points was not too different from 4th with 39 points. But now, the 1st getting 15 and 4th getting 9 is like 1st is 2/3rds again as much as 4th place. In a couple weeks (assuming the scoring pattern continues) 1st place will be getting more than double the points of 4th.
Shock has really had a chaotic week, scoring high points, just before scoring really low. Consistency is key, dont get sloppy now!
Shock's strategy seems to have been taking it easy one race to going full out in the next. So far it's paying off with the Thunderbolts almost safe for the next round. But that tactic becomes increasingly risky and won't work as the field shrinks.
Every day the Limers scare the life out of me. We can bring this back yet! Avoid elimination as best we can! #Slimelime #GoLimers
You know, considering we spent most of the race in dead last, by a long shot, I'll take 7th.
@@scdwolfboy Disastrous start out of the blocks.
@@scdwolfboy honestly yeah that was heartbreaking but I will take one above elimination any day
@@scdwolfboyit has been the other way round for quite some races now, so i rather prefer it this way 😅
Jump got through all the obstacles and went "somethings not right. Hold on, let me hang out for a second-"
I adopted the purple rockets as my secondary team
Me too 😊
@@bellaususfitzpinguidpalate3194 cool
M-Tron 2000 has the following elimination odds after the next two events...
Indigo Stars: 56%
Bumblebees: 49%
Limers: 46%
Jungle Jumpers: 38%
O'rangers: 11%
Raspberry Racers: 0.24%
The "M" stands for "Marble"!
After what chance do you concider it too unlikely and not even mention teams that aren't technically save yet?
@@tundcwe123 < 0.1% Maybe not "statistically" safe, but "probablistically" safe
What’s the lowest chance that a team has been eliminated
@@Someguy2446 you mean what lowest chance team had to be eliminated that got eliminated or what is the lowest chance ever? If it's the second, than 0% for save teams
Red. YELLOW. Blue.
WHAT A MOVE BY TEAM PRIMARY AT 1:36
Finally, a stress free week for team primary!! Let's goooo
Don’t jinx it haha ❤️💛💙
My favorite team is the Green Ducks. My third favorite team is the Orangers. All other teams are my second favorite.
I am also a Green Ducks fan, but after their elimination I had to chose what I consider now as my second team, the O'rangers
Since CCE are out, I cheer for the teams that are the favorites of my friends. =)
Way To go Yellah!
Let's go Mellow, let's go!
This track is both brutal and so much fun.
Crazy to see how a team as consistent as the bees is struggling this week... scary
I stand with the Fruit Salad
This spoiler barrier is broken to you by the Jungle Jumpers
I'm going to need the Bumblebees get it together for the final two races. I need my remaining three teams of Raspberry Racers, Bumblebees, and Thunderbolts to race another week.
WHAT A BUMP AT THE END BY SHOCK!!!
OMG it's anyone's guess who will win this week, and we are already at Friday!!!
Come on Aryp! Let's go!
Mandarin always makes things interesting. Every race gives me nervous nuggets.
Why does Mandy have to stop at every obstacle and have a look-around? He picked a good line through the course, but it seems every bump took two or three steps to get through, while others just whizzed on by.
Sweet run, yellow! Just what the doctor ordered! 🎉
Let's go #CLUTCHBOLTS!!!⚡⚡⚡
Let’s go Team Primary! 🎉
Thunderbolts learned from living on the edge the first weeks and are now allowing us to chill! Nice job shock!
It's honestly a miracle lmao
I just have to say that I can't believe the effort that is put into making these intricate courses. Absolutely stellar! So happy my team is still hanging in there (even though he has a lot of demons).
My team Pinkies then Snowballs, Orangers. If Orangers fall then I'm backing the Mellow Yellows. After that, to hell with it 🥴
It occurs to me that the only solid color teams left are Mellow Yellow and the O'Rangers. Here's hoping one of them (hopefully O'Rangers) can win it all in the end. 'Plain' marbles need love too
Chocolatiers and RR too
Rezzy is on autopilot this week. He thinks that he is safe and I wouldn't argue with him.
Rezzy has been giving me mini heart attacks this week!
@@--Tia-- Every freaking day this week, Rezzy has started off great and flies past the initial obstacles. Then he gets to those yellow curve pieces before the ball bearing magnets and proceeds to let darn near every single marble go first before finally going himself. My heart can't take much more of that!
I've only just realised that my two favourite teams' fans are next to each other in the stands.
Let’s go oooooooooooooorangers
This week is so tense!
This is not a spoiler barrier. Sorry to get your hopes up. GO O'RANGERS!
Being a fan of Raspberry Racers is like being ona Roler Coaster ride. One day they are in top three, the other they are at the tail end only to be in top three again at day three and so on 😀
1st, Eliminated in Race 63, and 2nd, extremely happy for both teams today.
And for the classification, 5th, Eliminated in Race 63, and 2nd, happy for one team, and very happy for one team.
The spoiler barrier is brought to you by the Raspberry Racers and the Purple Rockets. I hope one, or both teams, makes it to the finals.
This spoiler barrier is brought to you by everyone cheering for the contraptions
Go spinners! #SpinForTheWin
Mandarin really needs to get it together, that was good enough for now but it's leaving it to just the last few runs.
Amazing job by Mandarin of getting through those ball bearings. Wish the rest of the run was as impressive....
Bumblebees, you've run out of buzz it appears 😭
Come on Swax! You've had such a good run up until this course. Get it together!
Mandarin needing the ball bearing to show him how to push through the pack.
Mandarin released the ball bearing, then let it do the work instead! Mandarin doing Mandarin things. 🍊🧡
I started rooting for CCE at the start of last season. When they got pushed out, I started jumping around to other teams. I am on my 4th team now. I would say who but, at this point, my support might be seen as a bad omen.
Samee, went from cce to rojo rollers, and they got obliterated. Now, primary last week made me go crazy, but this week they are doing nicely
This spoiler barrier is brought to you by the marbles of the chaos tubes
Spoiler…
Best race at the best time for Yellah! Nice to be able to relax a bit going into the weekend! #keepitmellow
Spoiler
That extra wait was worth it, #KeepItMellow!
YEEEAAAHH!!! Congratulations Yellah!!! Finally a P1!! Such a clean race!! Great start, avoiding every obstacle... Sooo happy for the Yellows! AWESOME race!!
#KeepItMellow
#GoMellowYellow
@@tinchoideramosalso that 1:25 was perfect, I thought it is impossible to gain speed and not lose it by hitting another marble or going on the other slide and back several times, but Yellah proved otherwise.
@@tundcwe123 absolutely agree!! That was a Master move!!
Poor Rezzy, I hope she does better next race! #RaspberryRobust
We have now reached a point where no one is truly safe. Seems as though they can't just take it easy. They need to race hard if they want to keep going 😊
< the little voice from the back of the room > "bon bon"
Swax you got to step it up these last two races
I scared my cats when Jump got stuck.
Absolutely beatiful Yellah! Its been a while since you last won
MARBLE SURVIVAL 100 FORM SHEET THROUGH DAY 75
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Legend- Team; Final positions by week; Total podiums (1st, 2nd, 3rd); [DNF's]
(Teams competing by week: 32, 30, 28, 26, 24, 22, 20, 18, 16, 14)
+Denotes last surviving team that week+
Bumblebees: 20th, 18th, 9th, 15th, 5th, 2nd, 2nd, 6th, 5th, 2nd (1, 6, 5) [1 DNF]
Chocolatiers: 8th, 11th, 19th, 14th, 11th, 4th, 6th, 12th, 11th, 3rd (3, 5, 4) [1 DNF]
Indigo Stars: 21st, 3rd, 10th, 6th, 14th, 10th, 11th, 7th, 2nd, 7th (3, 5, 6) [2 DNF's]
Jungle Jumpers: 2nd, 9th, 21st, 13th, 7th, 17th, 15th, 4th, +14th+, 6th (4, 3, 2) [5 DNF's]
Limers: 13th, 19th, 4th, 16th, +22nd+, 12th, +18th+, 9th, 3rd, 5th (5, 2, 6) [2 DNF's]
Mellow Yellow: 27th, +28th+, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 19th, 13th, 11th, 12th, 4th (4, 3, 4) [4 DNF's)
O'rangers: 3rd, 20th, 12th, 21st, 16th, 14th, 8th, +16th+, 13th, 10th (4, 6, 1) [2 DNF's]
Oceanics: 29th, 2nd, 17th, 2nd, 9th, 8th, 14th, 3rd, 1st, 9th (5, 5, 1) [0 DNF's]
Purple Rockets: 24th, 10th, 13th, 12th, 17th, +20th+, 9th, 1st, 9th, 8th (5, 3, 3) [3 DNF's]
Raspberry Racers: 14th, 4th, 15th, 18th, 12th, 9th, 7th, 8th, 8th, 11th (3, 0, 5) [2 DNF's]
Team Primary: 12th, 16th, 11th, 19th, 21st, 3rd, 5th, 13th, 6th, +12th+ (6, 3, 2) [0 DNF's]
Thunderbolts: 26th, 24th, 25th, 8th, 8th, 11th, 17th, 14th, 4th, 1st (5, 4, 4) [4 DNF's]
ELIMINATED:
13th: Snowballs: 18th, 13th, 14th, 11th, 18th, 7th, 16th, 10th, 10th, 13th (3, 2, 4) [3 DNF's]
14th: Minty Maniacs: 28th, 6th, 6th, +24th+, 13th, 18th, 12th, 15th, 7th, 14th (3, 3, 2) [5 DNF's]
15th: Team Momo: +30th+, 21st, 16th, 3rd, 15th, 13th, 1st, 5th, 15th (1, 6, 3) [3 DNF's]
16th: Savage Speeders: 25th, 25th, 23rd, 10th, 6th, 16th, 4th, 2nd, 16th (0, 4, 5) [2 DNF's]
17th: Pinkies: 23rd, 5th, +26th+, 9th, 20th, 15th, 10th, 17th (2, 2, 1) [1 DNF]
18th: Team Galactic: 19th, 23rd, 5th, 23rd, 10th, 5th, 3rd, 18th (3, 2, 2) [1 DNF]
19th: Gliding Glaciers: 10th, 22nd, 1st, 5th, 4th, 6th, 19th (4, 2, 1) [1 DNF]
20th: Rojo Rollers: 11th, 1st, 7th, 17th, 3rd, 1st, 20th (4, 2, 4) [2 DNF's]
21st: Green Ducks: 17th, 15th, 2nd, 7th, 1st, 21st (4, 3, 0) [2 DNF's]
22nd: Black Jacks: 1st, 27th, 8th, 22nd, 19th, 22nd (0, 0, 2) [1 DNF]
23rd: Shining Swarm: 9th, 7th, 22nd, 4th, 23rd (1, 1, 0) [1 DNF]
24th: Wolfpack: 15th, 12th, 20th, 20th, 24th (1, 1, 0) [1 DNF]
25th: Hazers: 5th, 17th, 24th, 25th (0, 1, 1) [1 DNF]
26th: Crazy Cat's Eyes: 7th, 26th, 18th, 26th (0, 0, 0) [0 DNF's]
27th: Balls of Chaos: 16th, 8th, 27th (0, 1, 2) [0 DNF's]
28th: Turtle Sliders: 4th, 14th, 28th (1, 0, 2) [1 DNF]
29th: Team Plasma: 22nd, 29th (0, 0, 1) [1 DNF]
30th: Solar Flares: 6th, 30th (0, 0, 1) [1 DNF]
31st: Midnight Wisps: 31st (0, 0, 0) [1 DNF]
32nd: Kobalts: 32nd (0, 0, 0) [1 DNF]
This is a harsh week for the Limers. I hope they come in the next round. 💪🏼💚
Spoilers....
Mellow Yellow sure dominated this race, huh?
This track is WILD!
1:36 O'rangers disappear AGAIN
I've been pleasantly surprised by the performance of my Limers in this competition but this week has me worried. Need a pair of good finishes this weekend!!
I’m so happy to see the chocolatiers to be in first, been waiting for a win for a while. #raisethebar
Fun fact (instead of a spoiler barrier....we couldn't find a sponsor for today): FYI, Greg. As a fan of Team Momo, I'm rooting for the Bell Carousel this week. Bang!!! Zoom!!! To the Moon, Alice!!!
I would like to see the disk traps more activated, maybe putting at 70°?
The three teams that I want to win are primary or indigo stars or the jungle jumpers I hope one of those teams wins
I read about you on SBAC. That's crazy
As a Team Momo fan I’m putting my support to Team Primary
ORangers for life
Where do I sit in that debate? I’m still calling shenanigans on the DNF that knocked out the Green Ducks
With both of my teams (Momo and the Green Ducks) out, I’m rooting for Primary because they helped Momo out after the bobsled incident. And they’re doing pretty well this track.
For Greg's question, if my team (O'Rangers) can't pull it off...and Mandarin is determined to make it as interesting as possible...I root for an underdog team that hasn't won much of anything. I couldn't root for teams like CCE or the Speeders. I am like that with all sports.
Mandarin with EIGTH???? Sure looked like a higher finish than that.
Mandarin has got to fight for better starting position. Every week we're losing valuable time on the snowplows. We can't keep trying to make up for it down the course. #homeontheorangers
Wow, I tell yall, these racers are showing the resiliency that will bring all manners of Spherical Athletes to the fore front of Geometrical Sports!! I may be biased a bit, but... GO BLUE!!
I'm trying to figure out what to do if (when) my team gets eliminated. I think I'll have to just enjoy the creativity of the race designers.
A huge win for mellow yellow
Never before in Jelle´s Marble Runs have I felt so stressed out because of an orange marble ´underperforming´ against all logic! Btw, the Oceanics and Thunderbolts must be scratching their heads how they can suddenly perform so consistently. Good job teams!
This spoiler barrier brought to you by, why do we have a spoiler barrier in the first place? Cheering for my rivals' rival.
I'm Citrus Team aka Limers and Orangers
OK, Mandarin, I'll take it. Not as bead as I feared. Show up strong tomorrow.
At least Slimelime is off the chopping block, but still really close, need some double digits the next 2 races