Redfin CEO Issues Bizarre 2024 Market Warning

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  • Опубліковано 15 жов 2024
  • Brand new data from Redfin shows a significant spike in inventory and price cuts this spring, hinting at a potential surprise for the 2024 US real estate market. According to Redfin, the median sale price of a single-family home in the United States has reached an all-time high. Their latest report indicates that a typical buyer is now paying $433,558. This is a 75% increase from prices in 2017, highlighting the dramatic run housing has been on over the past 7 years. According to a lot of experts because of these recent inventory developments, we could see these record-high prices drop off a cliff in certain areas around the United States.
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    • Redfin CEO Says Gen Z ...

КОМЕНТАРІ • 211

  • @Helen-n8j
    @Helen-n8j 2 місяці тому +679

    The problem is that in order to have "permanent roof" with amenities like electricity, gas and water, either the tenant or the owner must somehow pay insurance and property taxes. As a result, a lot of people live in tents, at least in California, where I presently dwell. Not a single mortgage, tax, rent, or insurance. It amazes me how many folks I meet who tell me they live in their cars. This place is insane!

    • @berniceburgos-
      @berniceburgos- 2 місяці тому +8

      It's becoming more and more insane by the day. Mortgage rates have been rising steadily (already over 7%). I often wonder if I should put my extra money into the stock market and wait for a housing crash, or if I should just buy a house regardless.

    • @Kin-28-8
      @Kin-28-8 2 місяці тому +7

      Such concerns also come to me. After 50, I'm retiring early. I'm already concerned about the direction the future is taking, particularly with regard to finances and making ends meet. I'm thinking about investing in the stock market for the first time as well, but how can I accomplish so considering that the market has been in disarray for much of the year?

    • @Theodorebarba
      @Theodorebarba 2 місяці тому +7

      For my part, I can relate to that. My benefits were clear when I started working with a fiduciary financial counsellor. I would always suggest seeking expert assistance in these situations so they can guide you through bumpy markets and simply provide you with indicators and tactics for knowing when to enter and exit the market.

    • @Lewistonwilliams-f5i
      @Lewistonwilliams-f5i 2 місяці тому +6

      hi, I have actually thought about this but the risks have always put me off. please, who is your adviser?? like a really good one

    • @Theodorebarba
      @Theodorebarba 2 місяці тому +4

      Her name is “Jessica Lee Horst” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like

  • @austinbar
    @austinbar 4 місяці тому +409

    I’m in Ohio and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quite mediocre neighborhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighborhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.

    • @rogerwheelers4322
      @rogerwheelers4322 4 місяці тому +6

      Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.

    • @joshbarney114
      @joshbarney114 4 місяці тому +4

      I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.

    • @FabioOdelega876
      @FabioOdelega876 4 місяці тому +2

      I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.

    • @joshbarney114
      @joshbarney114 4 місяці тому +5

      I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like Marisa Breton Dollard who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.

    • @FabioOdelega876
      @FabioOdelega876 4 місяці тому +3

      Marisa has the appearance of being a great authority in her profession. I looked her up online and found her website, which I reviewed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and employment. She has a fiduciary duty to protect my best interests. I sent her an email outlining my objectives and also booked a session with her; thanks for sharing.

  • @1138prometheus
    @1138prometheus 4 місяці тому +23

    That is incorrect. You can have a crash without having a huge increase in supply because the crash happens when their RATIO of sellers to buyers is extremely high. That can occur when a large number of potential buyers become unqualified. For example, they have credit cards maxed out. They have automobile repos. They're late on student loans. They have recent layoffs and other credit problems. So if you think those things are happening in the economy today and you can assume that the number of qualified buyers is being rapidly reduced at the same time, if inventory stays exactly the same but you, cut the number of qualified buyers in half you can absolutely have your crash without significantly increasing inventory

    • @danielgrubb9668
      @danielgrubb9668 4 місяці тому +1

      It’s the same thing. Anything that decreases demand increases inventory.

  • @filgaia1
    @filgaia1 4 місяці тому +75

    People are selling their homes now because PROPERTY TAXES are so high that people can’t afford their own home anymore! I just looked at a 4br home on .29 of an acre and the taxes were $19,000 a year!! The house was $700k! Who can afford 19k a year especially when it’s only ever going to go up!

    • @danielmarks5133
      @danielmarks5133 4 місяці тому +15

      Nobody is saying how this is sustainable! At this rate in 30 years you will need a full time job just to pay the taxes on a 3/2.

    • @scottalvarez8870
      @scottalvarez8870 4 місяці тому

      💯

    • @Omnipresentz
      @Omnipresentz 4 місяці тому +12

      U must live in Texas lol

    • @williamjohnson9815
      @williamjohnson9815 4 місяці тому +8

      My house in coastal SC Zillows for $1,004,000 and the property taxes are $1,500 a year.

    • @Jay_dey
      @Jay_dey 4 місяці тому +2

      @@williamjohnson9815 ok, so is tax based on what you bought if for in your state? Or what it’s valued at? It’s dynamic in some states?

  • @CrashBr0
    @CrashBr0 4 місяці тому +48

    If the job market gets bad, you'll have your inventory real fast and in a hurry.

    • @deseosuho
      @deseosuho 4 місяці тому +6

      100%. A bit over half of all outstanding single family home mortgages are below 4% rates, from FHFA. Most homeowners are totally unaffected by this record high price-to-median-income, and they're sitting pretty. If they lose their ability to make payments...

    • @EJleon96
      @EJleon96 4 місяці тому

      @@deseosuhoplenty of them over 4% out there as well. Those are the people that will for sure be affected. Lots of people bought homes that are way over 25% of their monthly take home pay. They will learn

    • @CrashBr0
      @CrashBr0 4 місяці тому

      @@deseosuho I agree. Another point, only 3.5% to 4.5% of mortgages completed the foreclosure process, during the worst years of the Great Recession.

    • @thesoccertrotter1
      @thesoccertrotter1 4 місяці тому

      It does not matter what rate they have, if they lose their job they can't afford the payment regardless​@@deseosuho

    • @RichardBurke-qd7vi
      @RichardBurke-qd7vi 4 місяці тому +1

      Agreed. He forgets that the issue is likely to be people unable to afford their current mortgages.
      Buy a new house, higher interest rate, lose your cushy tech job or whatever. BAM. Foreclosures on the rise. Nobody else wants to pay the crazy payments (from high appreciation and high interest rates) and wammo. Prices start to come down.

  • @micheal_mills
    @micheal_mills 4 місяці тому +224

    I’m a new dad, I moved to the Bay Area a few years ago and I’m thinking of purchasing a single family home, but with real estate prices currently through the roof, is it still a good idea to buy a home or should I invest in stocks for now and just wait for a housing market correction? I heard Nvidia and AMD are strong buys.

    • @donna_martins
      @donna_martins 4 місяці тому +3

      it’s a personal decision, but according to Forbes, housing activities will remain stagnant for the most part of the year, so maybe hold off a little.

    • @Walter_hill_
      @Walter_hill_ 4 місяці тому +4

      well you could put a downpayment on a home and as well diversify as much as you can into Ai and pharm. stocks like Pfizer and JnJ.

    • @Robert_Seaman
      @Robert_Seaman 4 місяці тому +6

      Certain Ai companies are rumoured to be overvalued and might cause a market correction, I’d suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I.

    • @ilyaveysman.
      @ilyaveysman. 4 місяці тому +3

      this is all new to me, where do I find a fiduciary, can you recommend any?

    • @Robert_Seaman
      @Robert_Seaman 4 місяці тому +3

      vivian jean wilhelm’’ is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment

  • @jonathantaylor6926
    @jonathantaylor6926 4 місяці тому +33

    Ultimately its *** investors selling *** that will make or break housing. A normal person selling their primary residences doesn't increase supply because they buy a different house so those two transactions cancel out. But an investor can sell one house, or 10 or even 1,000 with zero corresponding demand. This will make inventory explode as the smart money starts to dump creating a negative feedback loop as that dumping increases inventory, lowers prices and encourages even more investor selling... It would be interesting to see the data on Austin and what percentage of homes for sale were prior investment properties vs primary residence.

    • @toinengwyn3935
      @toinengwyn3935 4 місяці тому +2

      Organic selling due to the inevitable recession will increase supply as well. As in the last downturn, financial distress will encourage more selling and less buying from homeowners. Their finances will most likely force them to rent.

    • @dgaunn4114
      @dgaunn4114 4 місяці тому +1

      Good point, but a lot of institutional investors (blackrock, zillow, etc.) sell homes in bulk to other institutional investors often at a discount. It's not worth their time to piece them out.

    • @auggieoutdoors3325
      @auggieoutdoors3325 4 місяці тому +2

      Yep, millions of residential properties are owned by investors largely for the tax benefits of depreciation. If congress got its act together, and reduced/eliminated the tax giveaway (for say the next 5 years), they could help ease the supply crunch.

    • @kristine7304
      @kristine7304 4 місяці тому +2

      ​@dgaunn4114 Institutions are not the only investors. Plenty of regular people have one or two investment properties in their portfolio. They can't exactly lump them together to sell them. There are also people with vacation homes that may want to take their profits and let go of their summer destination. Plus, you will have people that can't afford their mortgage or a new purchase either and are forced into renting. There are also elders that die. Two homeowners get married and sell one of the homes. Or divorce and they both become renters again. Expats that leave the county for retirement. All these situations will add to supply.

    • @jonathantaylor6926
      @jonathantaylor6926 4 місяці тому

      @@auggieoutdoors3325 Or Congress could eliminate capital gains on real estate for a year.... probably 500K homes would hit the market tomorrow.

  • @nickvin7447
    @nickvin7447 4 місяці тому +50

    Homes are literally sitting for months not moving.

    • @johnbeckman492
      @johnbeckman492 4 місяці тому +13

      In glad they're literally not moving

    • @kalef1234
      @kalef1234 4 місяці тому +5

      We are in the cope stage, this stage could last years

    • @1ruzzzz1
      @1ruzzzz1 4 місяці тому +1

      😂

    • @ohiasdxfcghbljokasdjhnfvaw4ehr
      @ohiasdxfcghbljokasdjhnfvaw4ehr 4 місяці тому +2

      yet not being sold at a lower price, because supply and demand is imaginary

    • @nickvin7447
      @nickvin7447 4 місяці тому

      @@ohiasdxfcghbljokasdjhnfvaw4ehr 87 out of the top 100 markets are flat or declining year over year. Tells you everything you need to know.

  • @nickvin7447
    @nickvin7447 4 місяці тому +45

    We already have downward pressure on pricing with lower supply, imagine what happens when supply balloons.

    • @scottalvarez8870
      @scottalvarez8870 4 місяці тому +1

      Depends on where you are looking. Supply is booming in Florida with 135k listings and rising.

    • @nickvin7447
      @nickvin7447 4 місяці тому

      @@scottalvarez8870 Yes, the real estate market is local. That is why FL has the second highest price cuts of any state in the country.

    • @nickvin7447
      @nickvin7447 4 місяці тому +1

      @@Peakshots You realize if unemployment rises even 1% point we are going to have a serious problem right?

    • @Jon-rz2nn
      @Jon-rz2nn 4 місяці тому

      Population dynamics do not support a supply balloon anytime soon.

    • @nickvin7447
      @nickvin7447 4 місяці тому

      @@Jon-rz2nn Population dynamics in certain regions maybe, not overall.

  • @bloxrocks
    @bloxrocks 4 місяці тому +10

    Type of inventory available is a factor rarely discussed. For example, in Utah builders are only building multifamily town homes or apartment complexes. Yes, they're more affordable and decent starter homes but not what most people actually want.

    • @red5standingby419
      @red5standingby419 4 місяці тому +3

      "more affordable" "starter homes" , yeah and still no one that would be in the market for something like that can afford those at the price points they're at and what wages and cost of living (inflation) is at today. There are tons of young people looking to get started and move out but can't because they can't afford rent in a crappy apartment and all the bills let alone a "starter home".

  • @Acc0rd79
    @Acc0rd79 4 місяці тому +11

    Where I live there are far more homes for sale than there ever was before 2020. Everywhere you drive there are homes for sale, I never saw anything like it. With the high interest rates and ridiculous Florida insurance rates I see prices definitely coming down in my section of the country. The poor younger people at my job have no chance of buying a home and they know it, they just know they will always rent. It's over for them.

    • @os2958
      @os2958 4 місяці тому +2

      Hopefully it's not over for them. However government intervention will probably be required to fix the problem. That means careful voting, run for office.

    • @dr.eldontyrell-rosen926
      @dr.eldontyrell-rosen926 4 місяці тому +1

      @@os2958 No, it is over for them. Their children and grandkids may have a chance IF we work on fixing things now.

    • @cat143143
      @cat143143 4 місяці тому

      ​@@os2958government intervention got us in this mess. What are you a Democratic party bot?

    • @lv4077
      @lv4077 4 місяці тому

      Yet millions will vote for more restrictive government policies

    • @dr.eldontyrell-rosen926
      @dr.eldontyrell-rosen926 4 місяці тому +1

      Interest rates are not "high" they are closer to normal. The market is used to near zero which is in no way sustainable.

  • @profitmix441
    @profitmix441 4 місяці тому +7

    not only inventory is up but a lots of people put their 2nd 3rd home on the market and it’s not moving.. we are seeing price cut and we haven’t had a recession yet. It’s a middle class crash that the housing will follow along. Cause none of this is supportable

  • @Peterl4290
    @Peterl4290 4 місяці тому +84

    In 2024, Don't set new year financial goals without consulting a financial adviser. Their expertise ensures a solid plan for success. Building wealth involves developing good habits like regularly putting money away in intervals for solid investments.

    • @larrypaul-cw9nk
      @larrypaul-cw9nk 4 місяці тому +2

      Thanks for the advice! I'm new to financial planning and wasn't sure where to start. Any tips on finding a reliable financial adviser or resources to guide beginners?

    • @Mrshuster
      @Mrshuster 4 місяці тому +1

      I completely understand the impact of the new year on financial decisions-it's transformative. While I've found success in investing, especially with the guidance of my advisor, Vivian Carol Gioia, I still appreciate the solid foundation i had. This principles align with the core values of financial discipline.

    • @sabastinenoah
      @sabastinenoah 4 місяці тому +1

      my partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you.

    • @Mrshuster
      @Mrshuster 4 місяці тому

      Her name is “Vivian Carol Gioia” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like

    • @sabastinenoah
      @sabastinenoah 4 місяці тому

      She has the appearance of being a great authority in her profession. I looked her up online and found her website, which I reviewed and went through to learn more about her credentials, academic background, and employment. She has a fiduciary duty to protect my best interests. I sent her an email outlining my objectives and also booked a session with her; thanks for sharing.

  • @jessicahayes9788
    @jessicahayes9788 4 місяці тому +20

    I'm a Texan and one thing people especially those coming from CA, NY, OR, WA, etc need to understand, Texas housing prices were significantly lower than the prices y'all paid starting around 2015.
    That one house shown here for $299K and still not moving, that home was worth about $80K in 2019. All y'all started bidding wars when it wasn't necessary.
    The builders & sellers saw y'all coming 10 miles away and they know they can take advantage of the opportunity to inflate the home prices. And as always, y'all didn't do your research especially on property tax.
    Bunch of fools.

    • @Triangletox
      @Triangletox 4 місяці тому +1

      I agree. Saw the same in durham NC when pandemic started. By 2021 New Yorkers flooded Raleigh/durham and prices went up 4 fold easy. All due to dumb dumbs coming down in droves with more money than sense bidding up prices.
      Prices are coming down and NYC real estate has dropped by 21% in 2 years.
      This housing inflation will drop in many many places around the US.

    • @dancox3251
      @dancox3251 4 місяці тому +3

      That's because Texas runs non-stop ads for years in those states - ads you'll never see if you are already in Texas - and these ads basically dupe people into moving here or relocating their company (which then relocates their workforce along with it). As a native Texan who has lived in these other states and seen these ads I practically spit out my beer laughing whenever I saw them as they are so misleading.

    • @gary9080
      @gary9080 4 місяці тому +1

      Sheep following sheep

    • @TravisPluss
      @TravisPluss 4 місяці тому +1

      Californian here who isn't a fool and staying put. Thank you for this comment, because I literally have no idea what the Texan Real Estate market was like pre-pandemic. 299k is CHEAP to us because of how inflated we are compared to you.

    • @wacokid6588
      @wacokid6588 4 місяці тому +1

      Thanks … y’all.

  • @bpbpbpbpbpbp
    @bpbpbpbpbpbp 4 місяці тому +5

    “Down 20%” is hardly a crash in any practical terms when we’re still nowhere near affordability for damn near the *entirety* of the hardest working, best educated generation in the history of our country. Prices are obscene and I hope they plummet.

    • @solrubrum
      @solrubrum 3 місяці тому

      They won't. Not until the government stops printing money like crazy. They will only continue to increase. Even if there is a crash, they will remain high.

  • @FranklinGray
    @FranklinGray 4 місяці тому +2

    It's supply AND demand. They only talked about supply. That is like talking about a team getting a new QB but ignoring that all the defensive starters retired and expecting the team to improve.

  • @atenas80525
    @atenas80525 4 місяці тому

    QUESTION - looking at just residential RE, there may or may not be issues, but if commercial real estate enters into a crash, how does that impact residential RE?

  • @Sonofawildanimal4241
    @Sonofawildanimal4241 4 місяці тому +7

    Homes are still selling for over asking in desirable locations with limited inventory

    • @comment_deleted
      @comment_deleted 4 місяці тому +2

      First post I’ve seen saying the same thing I’ve been saying. I live in one of those areas and houses don’t stay on the market for more than a week or two before selling.
      These are home that were 200k 5 yrs ago. Now selling for 500-700k

    • @patty109109
      @patty109109 4 місяці тому +1

      Yep, I am in New York State and housing. Here is doing very well. Very limited inventory and houses sell immediately.

  • @lv4077
    @lv4077 4 місяці тому +7

    This sounds like something, a real estate agent would post. Any mention of totally unimportant, economic activities, such as outrageous, inflation, and extremely weak economy wouldn’t even come into the equation would it. It’s just how many are for sale and how many buyers are out there not why they’re there not why things are the way they are just that it occurs

    • @kidbogle
      @kidbogle 4 місяці тому +2

      “Outrageous inflation and extremely weak economy” - political much?? 😂

    • @lv4077
      @lv4077 4 місяці тому

      @@kidbogle Funny,I assume the fed raising rates is a solid indicator of deflation,think much?

    • @kidbogle
      @kidbogle 4 місяці тому +1

      @@lv4077 The Fed hasn’t raised rates a single basis point since July 2023 and has been projecting cuts. And the economy is humming with strong job creation and historically low unemployment. But you don’t react to facts.

    • @lv4077
      @lv4077 4 місяці тому +1

      @@kidbogle Ludicrous response as I expected.A “job” doesn’t mean anything and jobless rates , as determined by the bureaucracy completely controlled by the party in charge in an election year are not only irrelevant, but erroneous. Part time ,seasonal and low paying service jobs are jobs and their reporting is a complete joke.
      Anyone who believes the fed is independent, must have suffered a severe head injury. Nothing could be further from the truth. I must admit Powell is doing his best in an impossible situation but he can only do so much. I suppose you’re a big believer in the administrations inflation numbers also. I suppose if you live in DC and all you see are the trillions being dolled out In a ridiculous attempt at maintaining power you might get the impression that everything’s great in the Homeland but you’re just way too far from reality to get a very good view.

    • @scottstempmail9045
      @scottstempmail9045 4 місяці тому

      @@lv4077 You do know that ADP, the payroll company, also reports employment data; right?

  • @misterlunity9649
    @misterlunity9649 4 місяці тому +6

    Most people who don’t own a home want the market to crash, and that’s most people these days, so let the market crash

    • @Dreamalittle1
      @Dreamalittle1 4 місяці тому

      Yeah, let the market crash. You will most likely lose your job or not be able to afford rent or food if you do have one. Expect a much lower standard of living when it happens.

  • @aaronlawonn392
    @aaronlawonn392 4 місяці тому +2

    I’m not sure why everyone evaluates housing in a silo rather than considering the rest of the macroeconomic environment. In this case, the unemployment rate. Yes, at the current rate of change, it would take years to have inventory levels well above 2019 levels; however, that assumes that people will have a choice about selling. If you look at the last crash, unemployment went from 4% to 10% in less than a year during 2009 and prices subsequently nose dived as people were forced to sell as they lost jobs. If you listen to earnings calls and recent comments from CEOs in various industries, those job losses are spreading and increasing which could cut a significant amount of time out of inventory levels correcting upwards.

  • @kayomichael
    @kayomichael 4 місяці тому +1

    home inventory per stlouisfed is already at 2019 levels in my area. Multiple price cuts and long days on market but like the video said, it's not a crash but more of a slow glide down on prices. It will be an interesting home buying season this summer.

  • @podocrypto6072
    @podocrypto6072 4 місяці тому +3

    Florida and Calif is dumping! But what is worse is the rest of the country! Hopefully, it will all go back to 2018!!!

  • @joechang8696
    @joechang8696 4 місяці тому +1

    Does average home price include both new and existing? if it includes new, then it reflects that many new houses tend to be higher end, larger square footage than existing, more luxury amenities etc

  • @scottalvarez8870
    @scottalvarez8870 4 місяці тому +2

    This channel is getting better

  • @jeanmetcalf1263
    @jeanmetcalf1263 4 місяці тому +4

    Not in California because we have prop 13

    • @Cyrus992
      @Cyrus992 4 місяці тому +1

      No wonder prices are high

  • @julzee111
    @julzee111 4 місяці тому

    I think you're forgetting one variable. And that is the potential for inventories to increase dramatically if and when the banks begin for closing on peoples homes. Just because there's not inventory today doesn't mean that there won't be inventory tomorrow.

  • @buffaloman5042
    @buffaloman5042 4 місяці тому +3

    Southwest Fl is loaded with houses for sale and crazy high insurance

    • @nomzChompa
      @nomzChompa 4 місяці тому

      And highish tax once the previous owner is out and their "Save Our Homes" exemptions expire.

  • @BillyCarsley
    @BillyCarsley 4 місяці тому

    What's affecting me as a home buyer and seller is very local... incredibly low inventory in my area.

  • @mylesgray3470
    @mylesgray3470 4 місяці тому +1

    Seeing prices dip here in Seattle right now during peak season. Also, the 2nd hand Tesla market is being flooded with used cars and I’m noticing way less of them on the road than a year ago, as if people got in over their heads financially.

    • @scottstempmail9045
      @scottstempmail9045 4 місяці тому

      " Also, the 2nd hand Tesla market is being flooded with used cars "
      ...or the public has grown weary of Elon's bullshit.

  • @joelsnyder8177
    @joelsnyder8177 4 місяці тому

    The rate of inventory going up is what matter the most not just the inventory level but good data thank you

  • @pristinedetailing5171
    @pristinedetailing5171 4 місяці тому +1

    Looking at your graph it looks like Jan. 2023 and 2024 it was neck and neck. To see that gap widen significantly in 5 months, definitely raises some red flags. It is also trending upward at a more significant degree. This should be interesting.

  • @FranklinGray
    @FranklinGray 4 місяці тому +2

    Fact is, house prices are way overvalued due to extreme low interest rates over the years. Now that interest rates are getting back to normal, people can't pay the interest rate and the high cost of the home. Home owners, sellers, are going to have to drop their prices but many can't as they are underwater as they overpaid for their house. People are going to be moving less in the coming years and the biggest losers in this is real-estate agents. If you are an agent then you need to find a new career.

    • @Jon-rz2nn
      @Jon-rz2nn 4 місяці тому

      The biggest losers are in fact, the taxpayers since the banks will again be bailed out of the mess they helped create.

  • @consciouscrypto3090
    @consciouscrypto3090 4 місяці тому

    I did the math and see that I am better off continuing to rent the house I'm in than buying. It will take a big crash to change that. I invest the difference in what I would pay and earn return instead of paying out interest. Really I just invest all disposable income, but that income wouldn't be disposable if I owned a home. I can't get a home in this neighborhood for PITI equal to what I pay in rent, not even close.

  • @wolf-yw9wk
    @wolf-yw9wk 4 місяці тому +1

    when you treat housing like a stock you get moves that are similar to them.

  • @itamarperez
    @itamarperez 4 місяці тому +1

    Inventory of real estate as an investment product was low; one day, people will wake up to understand that

  • @nisaxaxa123
    @nisaxaxa123 4 місяці тому

    Kudos to you for changing your mind with data, and stating saying what needs to be said.

    • @scottstempmail9045
      @scottstempmail9045 4 місяці тому

      Perhaps he is simply pandering to his audience?

    • @nisaxaxa123
      @nisaxaxa123 4 місяці тому

      @scottstempmail9045 most of his audience are the one he gathered with his housing crash videos, one way to look for crash is to look at data from stlouis fred and redfin market update for your locality, and with most places where people are , there isn't a crash

  • @marvinmakarwichrealtor
    @marvinmakarwichrealtor 4 місяці тому

    I disagree with Redfin CEO that home affordability is at an all-time low. The reason I say this is because home prices are still too inflated and rate buyers income isn’t sufficient enough to keep up with the massive home price increase set on by the pandemic. It’s trying to correct by homes staying on market longer and price decreases, but we aren’t there yet.

  • @dennisleise5393
    @dennisleise5393 4 місяці тому

    More of the same--corporations buying houses keeping prices artificially high. When it all crashes, they will get a bailout.

  • @BangMaster96
    @BangMaster96 4 місяці тому +2

    Real Estate is never a National phenomenon. It was, and will always be LOCAL, LOCAL, LOCAL.
    If you are happy in the City/State you live in, and you like your Job, and you can afford the monthly payments, then you can buy the House you want. Otherwise, figure out where you want to live, a way to raise your income, and buy a Home at that time.
    Trying to time and predict the Market is IMPOSSIBLE.

  • @micker9830
    @micker9830 4 місяці тому

    That house in Austin for $300k is a trailer lol. That's pretty crazy

  • @CaptainCaveman1170
    @CaptainCaveman1170 4 місяці тому

    Prices went down significantly on 2022 - without supply ever reaching "normal" levels - meaning that a collapse in demand can also have the same result as spiking supply. That said, supply WILL go back to pre pandemic levels.

  • @marcuscook5145
    @marcuscook5145 4 місяці тому +1

    All it takes is a recession and then inventory can spike in short order.

  • @cterry7777
    @cterry7777 4 місяці тому +1

    I know one thing for certain. The Red Fin CEO has a terrible track record of forecasting.

  • @1apilot2
    @1apilot2 3 місяці тому

    While I think you are right about supply being a key factor in prices, I don't think it is the only factor. During the pandemic, when prices increases tremendously, there were very low interest rates as well as government money placed in the pockets of everyday Americans. Another important elements was a kind of emotionalism among buyers. IE there was a frenzy of buyers not wanting to "miss out", which produced bidding wars that drove prices of the roof. I think this sentiment, this emotionalism, is now going the opposite direction, where people are becoming far more cautious, even worried, about their home purchase. Finally, there was a more stable incomes among buyers during the pandemic buying boom, something in the current economy that is beginning show some cracks. All this to say, that supply is one indicator, not the only indicator of where prices will go.

  • @williamjohnson9815
    @williamjohnson9815 4 місяці тому +1

    I have never seen more wishful thinking than this site. Inventory is about half of what it was before the pandemic. There is a labor shortage in the US, due to retiring baby boomers (3.6 million a year are retiring). Months inventory is about 3.5. It takes about 6 to get into a buyers market. Finally, interest rates are considered high. If they decline (with or without a recession), it will set off another housing price boom. This problem has been festering for over a decade (the shortage of building single family detached homes). What we are about to see, I believe, is the "Chinafication" of America, where everyone except the wealthy lives in a multifamily project (either owning or renting).

  • @JK-ks3xq
    @JK-ks3xq 4 місяці тому +4

    Yikes! creepydude from redfin!

  • @cybermuse6917
    @cybermuse6917 4 місяці тому

    Prices wont go further than their peak now due to ZIRP and will be directly influenced by interest rates further.

  • @jayadams3339
    @jayadams3339 4 місяці тому

    Everybody is still looking at it wrong. This isnt the mortgage crash of 2008. It's not that people are buying homes they can't afford.
    Blackstone and other Trillion Dollar investment companies are buying as many single family rentals as they can, and dropping $20k extra on the asking price. That guarantees THEM the house which they turn into a rental that costs as much as the mortgage. So citizens can't afford the houses and they have to rent so high they can never afford them.
    It should be criminal and some legislation is being worked on in some areas to control the % of the market invesment companies can own BUT they will have 10 years to sell off the houses.
    If their pocket books are looking good they can quickly pay off houses and sell them at that time to get full equity. That could cause prices to drop but I don't think the prices will ever return to where they should be.
    These companies have Trillions backing up the mortgages and renters stuck paying full value of the mortgage. On top of that every house they get turns into more equity. They own half the country now. They started this during the pandemic and that's why house prices everywhere spiked all at once.
    On top of that everyone and their mother these days is trying to buy properties to rent and AirB&B.

  • @donnicholson3170
    @donnicholson3170 4 місяці тому

    There can be a price crash based on higher interest rates alone. Add in people being tapped out with too much debt and boom! You have a housing price crash.

  • @ihtfp004
    @ihtfp004 4 місяці тому

    Higher prices of everything are essentially creating an ARM loan for everyone. Things are great until they aren’t and the average person is getting squeezed. Interesting times are coming folks.

  • @iidawgg
    @iidawgg 4 місяці тому

    Home prices literally went up 6%

  • @lk29392
    @lk29392 4 місяці тому

    Where are sellers sitting on 2-3% mortgages going to go if they sell? Rent luxury apartments at exorbitant rates or buy something much smaller at a higher interest rate so their payment is the same? There is basically a ZERO percent chance the market gets flooded with inventory because of this. If prices drop some you will get that investment $ coming in when they see enough of a drop to be deemed a good investment - this will prevent a true bottoming out like 15 years ago. IF we go into a real deep recession and a ton of people lose jobs then yeah there could be some panic selling as the jobless try to cash out on home equity before they lose it but even then that is probably going to affect more retirement type areas like Florida. Florida condos already getting hit by new law of having to fund condo improvements and much higher insurance rates. I do see Florida going on quite a roller coasters but Florida is and will always be boom/bust in real estate.

  • @co7314
    @co7314 3 місяці тому

    I am sitting here waiting for the market to crash hard.
    I refuse to buy a home that it 200%+ of what it was 5 yrs ago.

  • @sanguineel
    @sanguineel 4 місяці тому +2

    The comments section is infested with scams.

  • @levratalex4929
    @levratalex4929 4 місяці тому

    Great content

  • @russmitchellmovement
    @russmitchellmovement 4 місяці тому

    I don't understand how anybody could look at 10%+ YOY shelter inflation and see a rise in inventory with anything other than hopeful relief. Think demographics are bad now? Watch what happens if this trend doesn't get reversed, hard, and soon.

  • @marymcgovern3462
    @marymcgovern3462 3 місяці тому

    Austin may also be suffering because potential buyers may not want to live in a state that doesn’t value or care for women. I would never move to a state where I could die from a miscarriage……

  • @cjenkins79
    @cjenkins79 4 місяці тому

    lol at you saying the variable you missed was supply. Folks like me were here in the comments section to tell you how wrong you were and you didn’t listen

  • @Eugen963
    @Eugen963 4 місяці тому +1

    Trillions of printed money are still in circulation

    • @patty109109
      @patty109109 4 місяці тому +3

      Those Covid stimmies coming back to bite us.

  • @timothygibney159
    @timothygibney159 4 місяці тому +2

    We need higher rates asap! Investors look at rentals because it always grows 6% year over year. Once interest rates rise above 6% blackrock will stop buying. Simple

  • @danman1287
    @danman1287 4 місяці тому

    Buyers determine the price not the seller. If u buy a home now u own it more than renting the same home. The vlogger doesn't know what he is talking about.

  • @RustyAwalt
    @RustyAwalt 4 місяці тому

    Nailed it

  • @REWatchman
    @REWatchman 4 місяці тому

    I enjoy your content. I’m on the ground in San Antonio posting content about dons big warning signs if you ever want to collaborate

  • @hillpunk92
    @hillpunk92 3 місяці тому +1

    Vampires everyone complains about house prices but anyone who gets there hands on a cheap house the flip it for 3 times as much. Greed is the real problem people just continue to ignore. We hate our fellow man so much that we would rather watch them fall apart mentally and physically from living outside while your "flipper" home sits empty waiting for the best market price you know the family buying can not afford you may get to sell it again. I have herd people say happily "that property was great I sold it three times!" And laugh. Real estate doesn't make you smart or savvy it makes you a greedy goon worse than any drug dealer I've ever met.

  • @eye2eye949
    @eye2eye949 4 місяці тому

    What goes up must come down don't be duped into the FOMO ill wait on the sideline and buy for pennies on the dollar

  • @JonSmith531
    @JonSmith531 4 місяці тому

    Lol. This guy is desperate to cheer the market up. Everyone can see the price cuts. Even ALTOS has admitted price cuts are at record levels across the country.

  • @stockdetective4396
    @stockdetective4396 4 місяці тому

    What happened to Texas??? Are they now moving to New Mexico 😂

  • @urbexandbrokenthings4806
    @urbexandbrokenthings4806 4 місяці тому

    color me "surprised" lol

  • @avenger1212
    @avenger1212 4 місяці тому +1

    Before we call you a permabull? You've been a bull for about 3 weeks lol. The whole Texas market and maybe a couple other overheated markets are seeing declines, but the rest of the country is stubbornly holding or going up. Honestly, I'm ready to move on from using Texas for every video on the housing market. Every real estate UA-camr wanting to describe a bear case uses Texas to make their case, and have been for a year now. Let's all just agree Texas is in its own personal buyers market and start looking elsewhere in the country where buyers are still eating wood chips and cardboard boxes and praying for a massive recession for a glimmer of hope.

    • @Sonofawildanimal4241
      @Sonofawildanimal4241 4 місяці тому

      True

    • @dancox3251
      @dancox3251 4 місяці тому

      During the GFC, initially only a small number of areas saw large price declines which were also the ones that had gone up the most. The government ignored it since it was a 'local' issue. Then the contagion spread...

  • @dennett9
    @dennett9 4 місяці тому

    When the Boomers start selling the market will change quickly

  • @RobertGotschall-y2f
    @RobertGotschall-y2f 4 місяці тому

    Surprise?

  • @gregdecker4741
    @gregdecker4741 4 місяці тому

    all of this guy's videos follow the same script: hey guys here's a video that begins by teasing that there will be a correction in real estate prices because i know that's what you guys will click. whoops lol nope number is going up forever and you're all screwed.

  • @craiggoldstein5699
    @craiggoldstein5699 4 місяці тому

    REDFIN KMA

  • @dmytrorider
    @dmytrorider 4 місяці тому

    2025 -2008

  • @weyantpc
    @weyantpc 4 місяці тому

    How come MHFIN won’t reveal his identity?
    I like his content, but how do we know we can trust him without some professional credentials?

    • @MHFIN
      @MHFIN  4 місяці тому

      I have no professional finance credentials

  • @nickyb-ff6me
    @nickyb-ff6me 4 місяці тому

    Flippy flop… you must be heading to the beach

    • @Triangletox
      @Triangletox 4 місяці тому

      That’s what I started saying about this channel weeks ago. The content creator has a thesis that sways with the wind.

    • @fpanadero2626
      @fpanadero2626 4 місяці тому +2

      I remember he was bullish a couple years ago, then bearish, and now bullish again!

  • @Joe-nj8py
    @Joe-nj8py 4 місяці тому

    Bidenomics 😂😂😂

  • @jasonneugebauer5310
    @jasonneugebauer5310 4 місяці тому

    I think housing inventory is directly proportional to crime in many liberal cities.
    If the city will not arest and prosecuted on crime, law-abiding citizens will not want to live or shop there, and businesses will move away or close.
    As with most situations, you get what you pay for.

  • @AmberEyedVirgo
    @AmberEyedVirgo 4 місяці тому

    Thanks for all ur valuable info! I'm currently looking in the Spring TX/Woodlands Areas. The prices are going down sporadically and there seems to be a growing selection. When do you think would be a good time to buy? I'm using my VA and I want to get the best interest rate available.

    • @hamburger512
      @hamburger512 4 місяці тому +3

      I would wait until next year personally. It’s an election year, interest rates are high with no relief any time soon, gold and silver are skyrocketing, and the big boys are stock piling cash. My personal belief is that things are being held together by a shoe string until after November and things will start getting shaken up after.