We Are Going Into A Recession, Predictions And What To Do Now
Вставка
- Опубліковано 26 вер 2024
- We Are Going Into A Recession, Predictions And What To Do Now. Is there going to be a recession in 2024 or 2025? There is a high likelihood of a recession starting in 2025 which is mild to average in severity. When Is The Next Recession? Are we already in the start of a recession? Is A Recession About To Start In The US? What should I do? Now what? What is going to happen in a 2025 recession.
How to make an extra $1,000 per month part time:
Crazy odd ways people make an extra $1000 per month: • Crazy odd ways people ...
How to Make Extra Money with Side Hustles: • How to Make Extra Mone...
Source information:
www.forbes.com...
www.weforum.or...
www.bls.gov/cps/
www.bls.gov/cpi/
fred.stlouisfe...
fred.stlouisfe...
www.whitehouse...
www.morningsta...
www.cnbc.com/2...
www.investoped....
www.investoped....
www.cnbc.com/2...
www.whitehouse...
Disclaimer and safe Harbor statement:
Topics discussed may include predictions, estimates or other information that might be considered forward-looking and results are not guaranteed. Prior performance does not guarantee future performance. This is not individual investment, legal, or tax advice. Investments carry risk and can lose value. Make sure to complete your own due diligence and work with licensed investment, tax, and accountant professionals when making financial decisions. Topics discussed and opinions provided do not represent any current or past employers of Financial Freedom 101 staff and are given as personal opinions. Financial Freedom 101 is not responsible for any of the financial decisions that you make. Financial Freedom 101 typically has investments including, but not limited to positions in diversified ETFs and mutual funds such as SPY, VOO, SWPPX, FXAIX and others which may contain holdings in the companies discussed. The content of this video is for entertainment purposes only.
![[UA] Eternal Fire проти NAVI | EPL Season 20 Malta](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/chvlsDygrZM/mqdefault.jpg)
this is the type of videos i want on here. no BS, stats on the board, logically based thinking without background music and emotional doomer speak.
Thank you for the feedback. Usually emotions and investing do not work out well so I try to stick to data.
+1M/B/T to exactly that. Great content, plain, simple, digestible, to the point and great work Dude.
@@financial_freedom101can u do another video on the uninverted yield curve even if it has similar info to this
Thank you for the video suggestion. It will be very similar as the curve uninverts closer to the start of a recession. So I think we are still a few months away from seeing any negative real GDP and it may be hidden by the lower but still ongoing inflation.
I love how the US can randomly review its figures by nearly a million, and this is not even big news. It means the economy was already way weaker in 2023 than claimed at the time. Yet nobody bats an eyelid and media say these revisions are meaningless, even as wrong data guided key decisions around interest rates. Same media that will bleat endlessly about China or some other "non-friendly" country not being transparent with their economic data, but the USA gets to shift the goalposts around what transparent data is.
Not really surprising they have been doing that for nearly a century now. However, it does seem to be getting worse as the model hastens its collapse (and media has sped up ofc). Pointing a finger to others has always been a very easy solution to structural problems.
The problem is where the blame lies. Was it the US government claiming jobs existed that didn't to show a stronger-than-reality Economy, or was it US-based corporations lying about their recruitment/openings to show their investors growth where it doesn't exist? For example, when I apply for Microsoft, they have my job listing, but it's posted for every single major city in the country as unique postings. Do they report they have 30 open job postings, or do they actually tell the government "oh technically it's just 1 job, it's just been posted 29 other times so don't count them" Something makes me lean towards the first
Media is owned by power. It's all about power trying to maintain power.
No clickbait shocked face? No nuclear explosion graphic in the background? No bold font saying some 💩 like “the end is near”?
Subscribed 👍🏼
Sorry, I focus on data driven discussions and do not bother with all the other tricks I am just not that interesting and do not like to waste anyone's time.
@@financial_freedom101 and that is exactly why I subscribed to the channel! Thank you!
Exactly
u mean the kind of youtubers that scream crash every 1 5 downmove??
I have been job hunting for 12 months. My emergency fund is almost gone and now the recession is hitting. Lol.
Spent 4 years crawling out of homelessness. Time to go back!
Sorry to hear that.
Would it be possible to get a job that you would normally consider yourself overqualified for, and then continue job hunting for a more suitable job after that?
Yes, any income will help. If you have a car: DoorDash, Uber eats. Otherwise: fast food, retail, slaughterhouse, whatever it takes.
If you’ve spent over 1% of expected lifetime job hunting, it might be time to switch things up! The jobs you are hunting for might not be sustainable or a good fit at the moment. It will be much easier to search when you can at least pay some bills.
This is not an easy journey! Best of luck. May you thrive soon and look back at these times knowing that good times came right after.
I know it sounds shitty, but if you can land a barista gig at a trendy coffee shop in your area they can pay decently well. The tips can be very good
Same and I’m so scared
This video is amazing. I often find that many videos on economic issues are emotionally driven instead of data but this was the complete opposite, keep up the good work. Definitely subscribing
Glad you enjoyed it!
I love the no BS content. Videos are typically dragged out, and you have to search for the value. But i have a suggestion: The grafs and stuff covers the part you are talking about in some of the cases:)
Yes, the graphs are the publicly available information and I was attempting to make them large enough to read. I try not to cover up the area where I am talking about unless the graph includes the actual data that I am reviewing.
Does the yield curve "9 out of 10 times" statistic include the current failure to predict a recession within 6-12 months?
Is it closer to "9 out of 11 times" by now?
Thank you for getting straight to the point.
Yeah it's coming for sure. My guess was most likely 2025. It could be early 2025. It sucks that we essentially have to dismantle the economy to fix it.
I agree that it is likely to be in 2025.
Love that there's no fluff here. Keep being you! Subbed.
Thank you! Will do!
After all these furus i've been through. You're a godsend. Thank you for these videos.
Glad you like them! Don't panic things will work out over time and generally 90+% will keep their jobs.
Dude! Yesss!!! This is wtf I’m talking about!!!! All data driven, straight to the point with no fear mongering. SUBSCRIBED!
Thank you for subscribing. I also have a discord channel that I go on a few nights a week. discord.gg/TpcxEGVrY3
This man recorded this message in 2004, speaking about 2024. Truly a prophet.
And stonx have only been going up
Im terrified man, my current job is tied to my college status and I graduate in December. I already struggle with not making enough money to eat
I graduated in the Great Recession in 2009 so I understand. Don't panic, you will be okay and this is not likely to happen for a few more months. These are leading indicators. The economy is slow moving more on the scale of 6-12 months for things to change most of the time.
Really like your content. One suggestion, maybe use a dedicated microphone, a bit hard to hear you.
Thank you for the suggestion, I need to by a new camera as the dedicated microphones do not work with the current one.
@@financial_freedom101 You can connect a dedicated Bluetooth microphone to your phones/computer to record high-quality audio and then overlay that audio file onto your video.
With a good investment plan that ensures steady income without any doubts I am prepared for a well organized retirement. I started investing in stocks 3 years ago and so far, I am making a good yield on my dividend.
Not everyone is as lucky as you are you know. How are you doing it?
Luck is way off the picture. Jonas Herman, a licensed fiduciary is the brain behind my success. I've gotten into a plethora of assets with $16k spread across stocks (options and futures) for the short term and Roth IRA, index funds, cryptocurrency and ETFs, for the long term. Now with over 91k in roi, I sit back and just reinvest at intervals while I handle my other businesses.
To me, investing is not worth it and I know that's the same mindset holding me back from taking a step forward in my finances. It’s all gambling.
I’ll be clocking 47 soon and I want to put my finances in order and make better investment decisions. How can I get through to him?
Hermanw jonas that’s his gmail okay
I appreciate all the stats you displayed. Thanks for the straightforward video!!
Glad you enjoyed!
I like to think of investing like a decade of Saturday night parties going around in a feedback loop except generally 2 of those 10 years you end up breaking the algorithm and waking up on a Sunday morning with a big hangover, and you’ve got to go back to work for 12 months until you get back to Saturday lol You can’t keep enjoying the party if you decide to quit and pull your money out
Yes, that is a good way to think about it.
I already feel like I am in a recession since March.
this is why i am filing bankruptcy instead of paying off my debts, i feel that accepting my past financial mistakes and buying this upcoming sale will pay off for me in the long run
A word of caution would be that most times when someone files bankruptcy they are not able to buy a house for at least 7 years as it stays on the credit report for that long. It also makes credit and loans more expensive from the higher interest rates. Bad credit can also prevent people from getting certain high paying jobs. I wish you good luck and do not know the overall details so I cannot say if it is a good or bad decision.
@@financial_freedom101 that's not a big deal. I'll just steal one
love the simple straight to the point content
We have been in a recession.
Wow this guy was on the money about the federal interest rate
Thanks for noticing. The FOMC has also provided dot plots for the next few months and it looks like they will continue to reduce rates a little each meeting. The next are in Nov and Dec.
its also an election year, will that have any effect and/or mitigate any recessionary headwinds?
I need this crash in order to hit my 100k. Will never reach it with this overvalued prices, can't pump in my cash here. Hope for a fast drop to go all in
I use dollar cost averaging to invest as it is hard to pick the bottom and when things recover the market tends to move fast on positive information in most situations. Over 90% of people who try to actively trade and hedge funds do not outperform the SP500 over a 20 year period so why try. I just invest in the index.
All investments carry risk and can lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
Thank you for this no nonsense video. Much appreciated.
No problem!
Thank you for a straightforward breakdown without any sensationalized BS
Glad you liked it
Thank you for this analysis. To the point no BS - claps! I
Awesome video... simple, to the point, great summary
Glad you liked it!
what a great guy - thanks for the video
Thank you for the compliment.
This is a ridiculously good video I'm surprised you dont have more views and subscribers. Great video !!!
Thank you, I am working on it. I have added 4,900 in the last 9 months and look to earn more views and subscribers with each upload.
You say in the video that you're expecting an average recession. Given the length of yield curve inversion, and the fact that the business cycle wave length has been getting longer over time as well as the fact that I see a broad asset bubble in pretty much all markets, I tend to disagree. I think personally that this recession will be about as deep if not deeper than the 2008 financial crisis. The fed doesn't have as many tools at it's disposal except interest rate cuts and QE. Excessive QE runs the risk of causing runaway inflation when combined with a zero interest rate policy which I'm sure the Fed will go back to.
The government is also hard pressed to borrow more money until interest rates are near zero again, because debt servicing costs are becoming an extreme proportion of revenue. This debt burden has the effect of slowing GDP growth as the gov is required to tax consumers and businesses at a higher rate in the future. With debt to GDP at 120%, the world bank estimates that for every percentage point over 77% of Debt to GDP, real GDP growth slows by 0.017%. Assuming debt to GDP stays at 120%, we can expect real GDP growth to slow by 43x0.017%=0.73%, a quite significant portion of the 2-3% real GDP growth that America has averaged in good times in recent history.
With that being said, I think it's fair to say that debt to GDP is unlikely to decline, because the government seems so incapable of being fiscally responsible, and I'm sure they will respond to another crisis by borrowing trillions more. In which case the can will be kicked further down the road for future generations to suffer with. Unfortunately, the debt burden is already causing significant problems, and so we may not have as long as we think to get our act together fiscally. I don't think the government can bail us out of the incoming recession (in time), because we know fiscal policy operates with a significant lag. The significant pain of the 2008 financial crisis, for example, happened after the government injected trillions into the banking system. The economy was certainly not bailed out by the government response.
I expect more quantitative easing and more inflation.
There will likely be a lot of QE / money printing / low interest / cheap money which will help to prop up the economy, but will be late. The QE will then cause inflation in a few years and then go through tightening again and repeat the cycle over again.
Yield curve normalized and investors have been saying that the market will remain upward trend until at least the end of the year. I also do think that there will be a very mild recession some time in early 2025 however
Wow this was a truly excellent video. Clear and concise explanation. Thank you, earned a sub!
Awesome, thank you!
How can I take advantage of this?
I'm studying for my financial license and let me tell y'all, what he has written there are called coincident and leading indicators and he is accounting for everything! Amazing and insightful video!!
Thank you for the feedback.
The belief that the Federal Reserve would stop raising interest rates was the driving force behind the entire economic chaos. What should we do now that we have a situation where interest rates are crashing? At this point, how would you suggest that I safely allocate $300k?
Although the market is currently volatile, aren't the current valuations a result of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and low interest rates? Therefore, my recommendation is that you consult a financial advisor who can give you entry and exit points for the shares that you are interested in.
Agreed, my portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% from early last year to date. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take another year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors.
How can I participate in this? I aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
Vivian Jean Wilhelm is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
She appears to be a true authority in her profession with over two decades of experience. I looked her up on the internet and skimmed through her site, very professional. already sent her an inquiry hoping for a response soon.
Not financial advice, but would you be looking at some safer put options on the s&p500?
At the September 2024 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered interest rates by 50 basis points, easing monetary policy for the first time in four years due to progress on the Fed's dual mandate. This lowers the interest rate target to a range of 4.75% to 5%.
One thing I haven’t seen mentioned here is the staggering amount of debt the US carries. Does that not matter at all in the way the US’s ability to try to tackle the effects of the future recession? What are your thoughts? Thanks!
The economy will need to out grow the debt to manage it, which has not worked well for other countries throughout history. One thing on the US side is that the debt is in US dollars and not a foreign currently and the US can increase the supply of US dollars (print money) which also reduces the value of the US dollar and increases inflation. Too much inflation for too long could cause issues with the US dollar being seen as a reserve currency which is a much bigger problem.
@@financial_freedom101 Hello, very good remarks to which one needs to add: over the past few years, US debt is already growing at a much faster pace that the rate of economic growth. It's not a scenario for the future: it's already happening. The pace of GDP growth isn't keeping up with the pace of growing debt.
Not if you’re on top of the world
Thanks for echoing my thoughts
holy moly good advice already at 10 seconds good desu subscribed 😮😮🎉🎉
Thank you for joining!
Will this be globally or just US? I’m in England and wonder how much of this applies to me
The US is slowing down, China is slowing down, ... When the largest economies in the world are slowing down it is usually followed by the rest of the world. England will be impacted to some degree especially in industries that sell to the US as we are all connected.
S&P about to make a new high
Yes, I am not surprised as this could happen for several more months as interest rates are reduced. Hopefully it is a very mild recession / soft landing, but will more likely be average. These data I shared will likely result in a 2025 recession.
All investments carry risk and can lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
i will heed your wisdom
Love it! Thanks
Glad you like it!
Everything is different now. Few of the old indicators remain applicable.
I am curious if the inflation rate is already increasing the GDP decline in real value as inflation has been higher than the GDP growth rate. Why is it every time this happens people say, "but this time is different." We will have to wait and see what unfolds over the next 6-18 months.
Excellent 👏🏾
Thanks for listening
This recession may mess things up for me.
I hope you and your family are not effected and this is likely not to occur until 2025. Here is a video on signs of a layoff to look out for: ua-cam.com/video/uBBSg8Hfk1M/v-deo.html
i love how he actually goes into the video, he doesnt talk for 7 minutes about what hes gonna talk about
Thank you, I try to answer specific questions and make it easy to search for so I want to make the title match the video topic. I think of my family when I make these videos so that they can understand them and they can use these even after I am gone.
@@financial_freedom101 jesus christ bro keep it to yourself man i didnt ask for your life story lol
We're not going into a recession, and we won't be for a very long time. Recessions only happen if the government lets them happen.
Any thought's on the severity of the recession? Any way to guage how much the market will drop (20-30-40-50%?) And time it takes the major indexes to go back to their all-time high after a recession? Obviously no one can predict that exactly but curious to get your thoughts based on past trends & current economic conditions.
Thx for sharing. Just FYI, yield curve uninverted itself today.
I saw that today. That tends to happen just prior to a recession in most cases.
@@financial_freedom101 So the waves are progressing... now it's just a matter how far the waves crash onto the beach (soft or hard landing). Today's job report did not help either case.
@@financial_freedom101
Been in a depression, going into a great depression
Just relocated to a new area and got a good job, when’s a good time to buy a house or piece of land to build on? Should I wait until the recession happens?
Houses have always felt expensive. If you find a good home in a nice area that you and your family like and can see living there for 7 or more years then buying makes sense in most cases, but if you are planning to move in less than 5 years it usually makes more financial sense to rent in most cases. Real estate is local and varies block to block in some areas.
Great job BRO
Thanks
Habibi we are already in a recession
thankx bro
No problem, thanks for watching and leaving a comment.
It says on your board A recession = 2 quarters of negative GDP growth but in the top left on your board it says the shortest recession is 2 months. How could the shortest recession be 2 months if it is defined by 2 quarters (6 months) of negative GDP growth? Doesn't make sense.
Good question. Q1 is Jan through Mar, Q2 is April through June, Q3 is July through Sep, and Q4 is Oct through Dec. In 2020 the US shutdown started in mid Mar (Q1) and did not start reopening until Apr (Q2). The overall GDP was reduced for Mar and April which also brought down total GDP in Q1 and Q2, hence the shortest recession on record across two consecutive quarters, but in reality only for 2 months before growing again.
Thx
I love the way you format your videos ! Straight to the point and amazing analysis!
Thank you, I do not want to waste people's time and I like to use data to guide decisions.
It’s literally a whiteboard. Are you a bot?
The "do not panic sell" advice should really be stressed more with all the snake oil salesmen trying to fool people into "timing the crash/markets". The fire sale from the Covid Crash put me in a much better spot compared to before.
I will keep letting people know not to panic. I have a video on why people lose money in the stock market and it is usually from panic selling and then waiting for everything to go back up to buy. ua-cam.com/video/STMIOzJFj5U/v-deo.html
We've been in a recession for a while now they changed the definition of recession for God's sakes
A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The GDP has been positive since 2020, and the past two years have actually seen the highest GDP since the late 1970s.
Now if by recession you mean, "An increase in the cost of living, lack of job security, and poor personal financial well-being" then that's a different story. But by definition, we are not in a recession, and haven't been since a few quarters in 2020 due to the pandemic.
@@abluelark they literally changed the definition 3 years ago that's what I said so what you're reading right now is not what it's been for hundreds of years
So what is it
@@mad-meh2719 you mean what was it
This is wrong. US gdp was negative the first two quarters of 2022 which is when they changed the definition bc "employment was strong"
We've been in a silent recession, if not a depression for 2+ years as the stock market has been falsely inflated.
I'm looking to buy a 4plex but don't make enough to buy even a small single family home -I'm 44 with ~$61k in roth retirement funds and am thinking about withdrawing my roth funds and bitcoin (fraction of one) and combining those with my $42k in hysa funds, before the stock market and bitcoin both crash.
Is that a wise idea? I want funds available if housing prices crash as well.
Except during the 2007-2009 recession housing prices did not dramatically decrease when looking at data. The lending practices helped cause the issue with people getting loans they could never afford to pay with ARMs and interest only payments and balloon payments in that time period. The market may already be shifting with all the negative news. I am not a licensed financial advisor so I am not providing personal advice here. Personally I do not have cryptocurrencies and will not buy them. I invest in hard assets (businesses / real estate) and the S&P500 with small amounts of CDs and bonds. I only buy what I understand and what produces income. Cryptocurrencies do not produce anything. I hold very few precious and base metals for their physical / chemical uses (gold, silver, copper, aluminum, etc.), but only a little as they also do not produce anything. I stay invested and remove my emotions and will continue to dollar cost average to buy more stock and will continue doing so even as it goes up. People trying to time the market tend to sell low and buy high and lose money when they get emotional compared to people who use dollar cost averaging.
@@financial_freedom101 someone just told me self-funded retirement plans are ponzi schemes (our taxes on the funds are why corporations don't pay taxes, and fees absorb all interest gains. Real Estate, precious metals are the truest retirement plans, besides HSA.
Great video, curious though why you’re expecting a moderate recession with what’s happening in the Chinese/ Japanese economies and with how overvalued almost all asset values are compared to the historical norms?
Average happens more often than not. We have a tendency to almost always think this time is significantly different and panic. When fiscal policy changes it takes around 12 months to change the direction of the economy. The average recession is 10 months which is close to the 12 months it takes between policy change to impact the economy.
@@financial_freedom101 fair enough, however if you look back to what happened in the 08 recession. Indicators like the Buffett indicator and Case-Shiller index returned to to their historic norms or slightly below. If the same were to happen in this recession that alone would be crippling to the US economy given how overvalued those markets currently are.
Just my opinion.
The pain is effectively the area under the curve. The intensity may be higher to get back to normal over a short time (2020), the issue could be drawn out longer with a lower intensity (2007-2009), or somewhere in the middle depending on how quickly policy is enacted and resources (people / capital / etc.) get reallocated.
I loved the content, I only wish you mentioned gold and silver as I feel theyre good indicators/investments in these times.
Is it the longer the inversion curve the harder the crash?
I have heard some people elude to that. I think the depth will depend more on what and how fast fiscal policy changes to boost the economy to potentially provide a milder recession and reduce overall pain. The average recession lasted 8 months since post WWII, so I would expect the average to occur more often than not.
0:50 the unemployment rate target is NOT typically 4%. 4% is pretty much the best labour market the US has ever seen.
4% is around maximum employment historically and sometimes only reached 5-6% during the expansion of the economy looking at 1988 and 2007. US had near 4% in 2000 and 2019 as well. The issue is the direction of unemployment which is headed in the wrong direction and increasing each month as it was 3.4% several months ago.
What time frame for CDs would you purchase personally & why? Not financial advice of course..
For me personally I find that 10 to 12 months CDs have been around 5% to 5.5% and have used them for most of my emergency money over the last 2 years. Any money I need in the next 5 years I put in CDs or high yield savings. Most of my money is invested in the SP500 and real estate and I continue to invest using dollar cost averaging. I plan on investing most of my money from the CDs back into the stock market once the CDs mature next year or when the recovery phase begins. I think current CD rates will start to drop now and if I wanted to go out to 5 years with CDs I would do it now in 1 year increments with multiple CDs per year. I just do not like tying up my funds for more than a year. I do however carry some treasury bonds that are series I and pay interest plus inflation that have been nice the last few years.
All investments carry risk and can lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The toilet paper analogy was clutch.
I am glad that you liked it.
Hi from India. Great explanation. Please upgrade your audio gear if possible.
it adds to the charm
I have about 30k saved rn should I be worried? I work at a factory and want to leave as soon as I hit 100k.
As long as you have in demand skills that can be used at multiple employers over 90% are typically still during most recessions. It is good to have 6 months of emergency money to carry anyone through to the next job in case of layoffs.
@@financial_freedom101 ok thank you. Yeah I just don’t want to get laid off winging a year or two of working here I’ll be able to achieve my goal if we don’t hit a recession.
Subscribed
Thank you, I hope you find the information useful.
Phenomenal video
Thank you.
2020: we are going into a recession.
2021: we are going into a recession.
2022: we are going into a recession.
2023: we are going into a recession.
2024: we are going into a recession.
2025 = recession ?
In 2019 I predicted a recession in 2020 and I predicted a boom following that.
Now I am predicting a mild to average recession to start in the next few months likely in 2025.
@@financial_freedom101 you didnt predict the affects of corona so that predicition was pointless.
And now stock market at record highs since this video was posted
we're all crabs in a bucket and the man is looking down at us, laughing as we try to crawl out of it
You do realize that this is a 6-18 month warning. The economy is like a slow moving train. Even the rate cuts will take 12-18 months to effect job rates and capital investment in businesses. They are trying to stop a trainwreck 2 miles away but need 5 miles to stop.
Should I keep investing then? Or save my cash for a large purchase in the future
which one should i trust after i watch this video, the macro bros or memecoiner who still think dogecoin will go to $1 in next 8 months?
I do not and will not invest in crypto. Mining has become very unprofitable (many miners are filing for bankruptcy or switching to AI) and without miners there are no transactions and without transactions it becomes useless. Holding assets that produce something such as the 500 largest US companies or owning real estate make more sense to me over the long run.
All investments carry risk and can lose value.
What a great trading teacher with just 20years old
we already did one
IBs are buying while individual traders sell smh
I’m focusing on diversifying my investments and creating multiple income streams
Smart move! Diversification can help reduces risk and increase potential returns.
What types of investments are you considering? Stocks, real estate or something else?
I’m looking at a mix of low cost index funds, dividend paying stocks and a small allocation to cryptocurrencies.
Cryptocurrencies can be volatile. Are you sure comfortable with that level of risk?
I’m also exploring alternative income streams
If you combine this with the fact that AI is going to be taking over most of the jobs in the coming years and we might have a recession we never recover from. Would love to see how world governments are going to handle this situation
Every time a new technology comes along people have had the same argument. Cars, internet, robots, and now AI. When new disruptive technology comes it will remove some jobs while creating other jobs and yet there are more jobs available today then there are people that want to work. Cars replaced horses. Internet and online information replaced brick and mortar stores (malls and Blockbuster) and were replaced with online stores (Amazon and Netflix). People that use the new technology make more money and those that do not change have less income.
@@financial_freedom101 Right but I believe this is unlike anything we've seen before. AI will soon be able to produce both physical and mental labor way more efficiently than humans.
Mental labor that (thinking) is already being outmatched in many ways by OpenAI's new O1 Preview model which can literally think before performing actions. I work in the AI space and build agents that can communicate with people via calls, texts, emails, and social media. Soon I'll be able to pair these "thinking" models with my current bots which already think but at more of a surface level.
Physical labor: The biggest companies in the world are investing into creating humanoid robots. These robots are being trained in Nvidia's real world simulation (video game with real world physics). They can run millions of instances simultaneously to train these robots at incredible speeds in the video game environment. Then they take that training and upload it to the real world humanoid robot and now you have a surgeon, plumber, electrician, you name it...
This is happening and it's happening fast. I'm not even talking about a "forever recession" or trying to fear monger. But the world may have to switch to a new way of living where "money" and "economies" are a thing of the past and honestly, that might be a good thing...
What this video teaches me, is to start intelligently saving. The technology behind recessions, or monetary depressions, is way beyond me. Although, some things are within my control...!
great video
Glad you enjoyed it
Any chance you offer an investing consult or interested in it?
I am on discord a few nights a week usually from 8-11 pm eastern US time if you want to talk I do not charge anything to talk at this time, but if you want feel free to send a supper chat if you want. Discord link: discord.gg/T4KXrwghMg Disclosure: I am not a licensed financial advisor.
Great video, no BS. Are you trying to time the market at all? Seems like pretty good odds if one sells about half their stocks and waits for the dip.
I do not try to time the market. I stay invested in mostly the SP500. I will keep a larger amount of emergency savings in multiple high interest 6-12 month CDs to lock in the 5% interest rate and once the recovery phase starts I will put that into the SP500 once I know my other income is safe.
This timing nonsense is why the average investor makes no money.
Buy and hold an index fund. It’s the only way to go. Been doing it myself for years, and well on my way to retiring with a few million before 60. No tricks: just year after year of buying. Never selling.
@@patty109109 even of the Shiller PE gets close to 44x again, you wont take any profits at all? Don’t you worry about losing half of your portfolios value in a matter of weeks?
Genuine question from a dummy… I weirdly think we’ll never see a big crash. Too many new investors have been made and continue to be made and taught to buy the dip. Am I crazy for thinking this?
I am a buy and hold investor mostly in the S&P500. There may be a -30% one year but on average it has returned ~10.5% on average per year over the last 30 years. As long as companies continue to increase productivity and innovate their profits will likely grow for the highest performing companies and will replace those of underperforming companies. Also inflation will reduce the value of money which it then makes buying everything including stocks more expensive which helps to increase the dollar amount even if the underlying value is not increasing as much.
All investments carry risk and can lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
how are investments supposed to grow when the federal reserve is going to keep printing money? adding to the debt that is basically impossible to repay at this point? everything is going downhill fast
Look at history and see that when dollars went from $20 / gold ounce to $35 / gold ounce stocks went up significantly which was the similar as printing money / devaluing currency. Businesses ended up charging more for the same items and then made a higher dollar profit. Also, led to a high inflation rate.
All investments carry risk and can lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
"We're 10 months into a recession" fixed that for ya.
Yes, some sectors of the economy have been shrinking for several months already. Now it looks like the overall GDP numbers will be impacted across even more sectors.
In the next couple of months, ill be coming into some money (300k) that I'm planning to invest. Should I wait until there is an upswing before I put it in the market?
You have no business managing 300k on your own if you’re here asking these types of questions. Go get a financial advisor. If not, go start reading some Graham for starters. The market is not a game, it’s serious thing for serious people.
"I'll be coming into some money..." is a scary phrase as won / unearned money is usually lost very quickly. I am not a licensed financial advisor and this is not personal advice. If I never invested in anything I would seek licensed fiduciary financial advisors and sit down and have a discussion and get multiple opinions first and pay per hour not percentage. I would not ever try to time the market and I currently invest using dollar cost averaging in the S&P500 and low cost funds the have assets that I understand and realize that all investments carry risk and can lose value. I would first put most of the money in FDIC accounts that earn ~5% interest while I learn more about investing (up to the FDIC limit currently $250,000 per bank and account type). There are so many details to understand there is no single quick answer to that question as time horizon and risk tolerance will vary person to person. Money that I do not have a use / need for in the next 10 years I invest in the S&P500 If I need it in 1-5 years it is in high yield CDs and savings. I also own businesses and real estate that I understand. If you want to talk I am in the discord channel listed in the contact / links on the main channel page from 8-11pm a few nights per week.
I probably used a poor choice of wording in my post - the money is from what I have saved over the years and invested into a house, which I am now selling. It's not an inheritance or winnings. I was thinking along the lines of investing it into 70% VGT/30% VXUS, long term so that sounds like it aligns with what you're recommending. But it may be a bad idea to wait and just invest when I have the money.
Also makes sense what you guys are saying about a financial advisor, I'll see if I can talk with someone about it before I do it. Thanks for the advice!
Buy RecycLiCo
If we are only going into recession now, what was happening in the past 3-4 years? Some prices have doubled, no jobs, people ran out of money
i can't believed they missed by 800k.
no matter who wins after the election the market will go up for a long time till may at least
The stock market tends to like when at least the president, house, and senate are not all controlled by the same party. It keeps laws from drastically changing and adds stability. Stocks are likely to go up for a while until reported profits decline, which are reported retrospectively every 3 months.
All investments carry risk and can lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
Hey what are your Opinions About Indian Economy??
Bruh we been in a recession.
Where would you suggest keeping cash with all the talks of big banks going down?
I would only keep ~6-12 months worth of cash and it would be in high interest CDs and high interest savings, but only up to the FDIC limit currently $250,000. I currently hold multiple 5% 12 month CDs.
@@financial_freedom101 are cds better than savings accounts? I have mine in a high interest savings account at a rare of 5.25%.
Savings interest rate is not locked and will drop over the next few weeks. CDs have locked interest rates that don't change over the term.
Subbed for more hot rolled up sleeves please
Is this a bad time to look for a new job? or 3 months from now?
If you have in demand skills then it is always fine. It will likely become more difficult / competitive in the next 6 months or so. I was hired by my current employer in 2009 during the Great Recession and have been working there for almost 15 years. I did apply to around 200 different roles and only had a handful of interviews before accepting that position. I have businesses reaching out to me a few times a month still asking me if I am interested in specific roles currently.
Thanks that’s super helpful (and encouraging)!
Rip new grads
But we are already in recession from last 1.5 years.
Do we really think we’re in a recession? Feels like we are in very different times… sure NFP got revised down by about 800k but those are still strong job gains (not as strong as we’d expected earlier). Unemployment went up current at 4.2% but we have a huge labor supply and while demand is falling it’s still historically high. And to GDP 3% gdp by no means feels recessionary.
We are currently not in a recession. This is showing evidence that a recession is likely in 2025 as everything is moving in the wrong direction although is still okay for the moment.