What level to overcall with ♠KQJT876? - with Curt Soloff

Our hand is a shapely ♠KQJT876 ♥K9 ♦3 ♣Q75. After our left-hand opponent opens 1♦ and our right-hand opponent responds, 1♥, we must choose what to overcall. Would you bid a simple 1♠ or can you do something else to make things even more difficult for your opponents? Leave a comment with your vote about what to bid: • What level to overcall...
Curt Soloff asks us to consider which bid thrusts the "last guess" onto the opponents.
In competitive auctions, it often pays to make a bigger bid than necessary (especially when the vulnerability makes it safe to do so) so that the opponents cannot exchange information about their hands easily and are put to the test at a high level: bid on, pass, or double for penalty?
This concept, by the way, is addressed in great detail in Kit Woolsey's well-known book 'Matchpoints' in which one of the chapters is entitled 'The Last Guess'.
Keep learning with more free bridge lessons with Curt Soloff: learnbridgeonl...
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[@pw2783]

Both teachers led us through this brilliantly

[@pauln7869]

Thanks for this - it all makes sense! One interesting feature of the hand is that, as you have so many high spades yourself, it doesn't really make a lot of difference whether partner has a lot of spades or not (other than whether they have the ace, which of course makes a big difference!) So even if you are asking partner to respond they are not likely to give a helpful answer.

[@peterrobinson1957]

Thanks Antara. A good discussion and something I am also always struggling with. The decision to go straight to 4S rather than 3S is an interesting one. If the opps go 4H, then we still have the option of going 4S, but I guess by that time opps will have a bit more information to work on and maybe go to a makable 5H. If we go to 5S, then we risk going down 3, possibly doubled which would be -500. On the other hand we may frighten the opps off further bidding by only bidding 3S and make a better score. So, it's all a bit of a game of risk and chance. I tend to be less aggressive in my bidding so would probably go to 3S, but now I am going to have to rethink...

[@marciaking7235]

Thanks Antara and Curt! Makes sense. I’d love a hand like that!

[@jwy4264]

Three cases.
1. They have a game. 4 S is the right contract on that case.
2. You have a game. 4 S is the right contract in that case
3. Part score battle, this is unlikely.
This is why 4S.

[@jrbos]

Why didn’t you let us see the hand play out?

[@curtsoloff4519]

On this particular deal, the limit of the hand for N/S ended up being 10 tricks in hearts and 9 tricks in spades for E/W, so 4S doubled is a good sacrifice; however, the play of the hand is irrelevant because the point of this exercise is to make the best tactical decision. I always remind students, DO NOT PLAY RESULTS. An aggressive (but well justified) decision may not work out for you this time, but on the next hand it will.

[@alanhe4476]

my rule of thumb would be 3s at equal vulnerability, 4s at favorable, 1s unfavorable
would lean towards 4s more at no one vul at imps, since this hand struggles to go down more than 3 in 4s doubled barring some freak distributions, but -3 doubled vulnerable stings if the opponents don't actually have a game
the risk of going 4s off the bat at equal vulnerability is that you give the opponents a very easy and obvious out of doubling your 4s for penalty, which, sure, you win in the case where they make 5d/h and you scared them out of bidding it or if your partner is holding a monster distributed hand, but what if they don't have a game because you have a second round ruff in diamonds defending hearts? what if your partner is void in spades and the opponents have no source of discards to pitch losing spades, so they lose 2 spades no matter how much they struggle?
bidding 4s unilaterally removes all decision-making and leaves the hand up to chance: how likely the opponents actually make 4h as opposed to 3h or 5h/d vs how likely you are to go down 2/3 in 4s. without any confirmation that the opponents have a good fit (sure they might have a fit in diamonds, but unless (or even if) your partner has actually 0 points and no length in diamonds, they still might not make 5D) or game
by bidding 3s, you also give the opponents lots of opportunities to make mistakes, such as trying for game in 3NT due to fear of a poor heart fit (if LHO has 3 hearts and RHO has 5, 3S makes finding that fit much riskier, similarly if LHO has 2 and RHO has 6, RHO would have to just bid game in hearts on her own without knowing whether her partner has 0, 1, or 2 card support)
all this while also succeeding in your goal of restricting their communication and bidding space, for example if LHO has a powerful running diamond suit but no spade stopper, she either needs to risk going to 3NT with no information or hope a double gets the point across
it might be obvious to you that the opponents have 4H, but that doesn't mean it's going to be obvious to them. sometimes you do what you can to make their bidding more difficult, but they still find the right place to be. that doesn't mean you should have been more aggressive

[@user-mike1719]

Seems obvious! Our side could have as little as my 11 HCP; opponents could easily make game and possibly even Slam. A game in 4H (them also NV) would get them 420, and 620 if V. As we are NV, down four doubled is a clear winner: bid 4S

[@armantookmanian1938]

Down 4 doubled NV is 800 - only a good sac vs a makeable slam

[@user-vw6jw8cw6n]

I would bid 2s

[@zeitgeist8167]

Rule of 2,3,4??