Re: Ariana Grande.... people keep saying well this is her first acting role, so she won't win her first movie. You guys at least acknowledged she has TV acting experience (people often forget that) but she was also on Broadway. She has a lot of theatre experience that gets overlooked because of her pop star status. If you watch her on SNL you can see she's talented, her comedic timing is impeccable. I think she's proved herself in this role to be taken seriously.... not saying she'll win, but don't underestimate her chances on the incorrect perception that she's a newbie who got lucky with a good role.
Ariana has this nomination in the bag. 1. She killed it acting wis. 2. She killed it singing and dancing wise. 3. Her movie will earn over a billion. 4. She's campaigning in supporting, which is a lot less competitive. Case closed. Also, I'm not an Ariana fan (more Lana fan), so this is completely objective.
She was in 1 broadway show, 2 years before starring in a nickelodeon tv show Nene leakes from real housewives of atlanta starred in 1 musical being chicago, that doesn’t make her a broadway actress
Yall are literally looking for things to get mad at. They're not even close to dismissing her. They're literally going off their vast knowledge from following the awards season each year. And they're right. This IS Arianas first big movie role. She is very unproven. This is literally comparable to Butler v Fraser and we know how that turned out. And please STOP bringing up her work in 13. She wasn't even lead. No one in the film industry cares about that role for her. Just stop.
I really wanna Fernanda Torres to be nominated for best actress. I just watch the I'm Still Here and I'm obsessed with her and found out her mother was Fernanda Montenegro who's the first (and the only one) brazilian actress to ever be nomitated in the oscar and i think this so cool because her movie is literally my favorite brazilian movie i've watched and would be such a interesting narrative.
I still think Zoe's career and connections within the industry will make her win in the end. She's worked with so many Academy members, and she's very talented and overdue. This is their opportunity to award her after being involved in so many blockbusters and films the industry loved, such as Avatar. I think she will win.
BEST ACTRESS 1. Mikey Madison (Anora) 2. Angelina Jolie (Maria) 3. Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) 4. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) 5. Demi Moore (The Substance) BEST ACTOR 1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) 2. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) 3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) 4. Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) 5. Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 1. Ariana Grande (Wicked) 2. Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez) 3. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) 4. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) 5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) 2. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) 3. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) 4. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) 5. Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
@@blackforest825 With new the National Board of Review winners, Nicole Kidman may take Demi Moore's spot and Daniel Craig may take that Jesse Eisenberg spot. Everything is changing with the new nominations coming out.
MTE, the movie will probably be in BP, it will get a Screenplay nomination, Culkin is maybe winning SA, and all the other contenders for the 5th place are very weak, so he's my 5th place.
Ngl I thought a bit and I think Grande and Saldana will have like a Butler vs Fraser where you don’t know who’s gonna win till they do. I honestly don’t know who will take it
I feel like Saldoña’s narrative is going to come in handy. Plus Grande’s role is more dramatic in the second half. I wonder if people will go, “I can vote for her next year.”
Keep an eye out for Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor. If NICKEL BOYS wins an Oscar in any category, Supporting Actress is the most obvious place to reward the movie.
I really like the idea of her winning for Part 1 and Cynthia winning for Part 2, it would feel... poetic. And apparently that’s what’s more likely according to people who’ve seen Wicked on stage. I dunno if Ariana would if she’s already won but maybe Cynthia could be nominated twice for the same role? I’m not sure whether that’s happened before.
@@rocco3605 This has happened only 6 times so far (same actor getting 2 nominations for same role). Bing Crosby (for playing Father O'Malley in GOING MY WAY and THE BELLS OF ST. MARY'S), Peter O'Toole (King Henry II in BECKET and THE LION IN WINTER), Al Pacino (Michael Corleone in THE GODFATHER and THE GODFATHER PART 2), Cate Blanchett (Queen Elizabeth I in ELIZABETH and ELIZABETH THE GOLDEN AGE), Paul Newman (Fast Eddie Felson in THE HUSTLER and THE COLOR OF MONEY) and Sylvester Stallone (Rocky Balboa in ROCKY and CREED). Only Crosby and Newman have won any of their nominations (Crosby for GOING MY WAY and Newman for THE COLOR OF MONEY).
I actually think the person to at least watch out for is Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, especially since it looks like NICKEL BOYS is a contender and her category could be an ideal place to reward the film. Besides, she was snubbed for ORIGIN, so has an IOU factor as well. It also helps that she is a recent previous nominee too (she was nominated for KING RICHARD).
An Adrien Brody / Chalamet showdown would be also cool because Chalamet is gonna be 29. The same age Brody was when he won as the youngest actor to win to date. Chalamet will beat him by a few months.
@@singstreetcar5881 I still think she could get in for blitz if globes and Bafta bring her back into the convo. I haven’t seen it yet but just seems too early to call anything
@@bradysmith4405 Bliz seems like it's completely off the radar though, and the Outrun isn't seen by anyone. They still love her though and maybe they'll throw her one of the two nods. But that's a big maybe in a year with Kidman, Jolie, Grande, Erivo, etc.
@ If you take out Zoe, it has a direct award for Grande. For me, I would eliminate Emilia Perez from all the categories, but Zoe deserves it even if I don't like the movie.
As a horror fan, I would like to see Demi Moore getting a nomination. However, I would freak out if Fernanda Torres makes it. I know that things are more difficult for her considering she is Brazilian and she's part of a Portuguese speaking film. But, she truly deserves it. So, fingers crossed.
The last NYFCC Best Actress winner to win the Lead Actress Oscar was Cate Blanchett for "Blue Jasmine." Marianne Jean-Baptiste's performance has been compared to Blanchett's. That's something to consider.
@@davidpunzalan7354 Thanks! Blue Jasmine is from 2013, people should really remember. But no, I have seen Baptiste's performance is nothing like Blanchett's. It won't get a nomination.
I think Cynthia Erivo will get the Oscar nom, I really think if Wicked is top 3 to win picture idk how they would snub one of the two actresses that are the reason that the movie works so well
Agreed. The screen actors guild voters, critics Choice voters and Academy voters already gave the film a standing ovation and that's enough for them to be cemented as full front and runners even this late in the race. Watch Wicked dominate the Oscars and the precursors. The Academy likes show-stopping and crowd pleasing musicals that do get nominated. Wicked is set for almost 14 nominations including best picture director and screenplay. All the acting performances specifically, the two leads are the ones that carry the film so much that it will be enough to push it over to the finish line of screen actors guild cast win. It's chances are getting stronger by the month.
@dahomey2001 I knew that. None of them were like this though. It was the best turnout that they had since Oppenheimer. That'll give you an indication, but we'll see what happens. Come Oscar night.
@@AntsTheaterCorner2698 14? No way, only three films had that many. Maybe 10, and I loved the movie. But yeah, I think BP, Erivo and Grande are all guaranteed a nod. For best actress, I think it's going to be Kidman (veteran), Erivo (box office darling), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (indie pick), Mikey Madison (newbie nod), and Jolie (the obligatory biopic choice) or Torres (the obligatory foreigner).
I think Tilda Swinton is a good contender. Rooting for Fernanda, but I know how hard this is. I watched Emília Perez and it’s really strange the hype on this film. Karla and Zoe are the best pieces of it. My prefictions for actress: 1. Mikey Madison 2. Marianne Jean Baptiste 3. Angelina Jolie 4. Nicole Kidman 5. Cynthia Erivo
Literally just wrote this in the comment. It's shaping up to be this. I don't think Jolie, Ronan, More, Swinton and others are gaining as much traction. I still don't think Madison will win though, but I haven't seen the film yet.
I'm getting nervous about Karla Sofia Gascon. She's good in the film, but compared to the wattage of (arguably her co-lead) Zoe Saldana and in a race this tight, I close my eyes and can absolutely see her as one of the faces in the collage of those "Biggest Snubs" article come Oscar morning.
There is no hostility or at least there shouldn’t be about Ariana Grande getting an Oscar. She used to do Broadway. It’s very similar to Barbra Streisand winning best actress for Funny Girl. Great video as always!
She was on one broadway show back when she was a child, before becoming a Nickelodeon girl Barbra won as a tie, with a different voting body at that time, and with the most succesful movie of that particular yeae
@@NerdyFilmGirlthe issue here is yall keep bringing up her theater background like she's Ariana Debose or something, like that makes her a veteran actor. You can promote her and say she should win without constantly dipping into that well. Also, having theater experience means nothing in regards to the Oscar's.
I am very much in support of an Arianna Grande win. I say this as someone who’s not really a fan of her music career. Nor do I have any nostalgia for her time on nickelodeon. I think, the thing most important to mention about Grande is how she has for decades been one of the most outspoken fans and supporters of Wicked the broadway show. Arianna largely attributes Wicked to be the thing that encouraged her the most to pursue a legitimate career in music and acting. She’s been life-long friends with the two leads of the broadway show and knows the show like it’s practically the bible. For her, the opportunity to be in Wicked was one that she put her entire career on hold for 5 years despite being one of the biggest pop stars in the world. That takes a lot of guts and sacrifice to do. Despite being a lifelong fan, she didn’t cave or crumble in the role which very easily could have happened given her status in the music industry. It’s clear she put in the research, she put in the effort to tap into a character she idolized only to become them, and she knocked it out of the park. When I watched Wicked, I didn’t see the popstar that she is. I saw Glinda. I saw the character. I saw a character who was incredibly funny, but also reserved especially during the opening number in the film. You could see a character that wants to shout at the rooftops how an entire village is wrong and misguided and hand to hold back under pressure. What was clear to me is that Arianna had landed her dream role of her career. One that she had been waiting for, for two decades. And she again didn’t crumble under the pressure, she thrived. She was the best part about the entire film and it showed. … Long story short. There is a very clear and compelling narrative that Arianna can tell to awards bodies. To me, I think it’s clear how she is more than worthy of a win. A deserving one at that. She should not be overlooked because she’s “just a popstar”.
I would love to see Demi Moore nominated but the movie being horror does bring her chances down, especially in an already packed category, Toni Collette's monumental snub for Hereditary wasn't that long ago
True but Moore being in comedy at globes almost guarantees she’ll at least get a nom there. Collette didn’t get a globe nom or sag. Just seems like Moore will get more televised precursor attention. Plus Hereditary wasn’t contending in many other categories
Really? I love the film but I don't think Demi Moore brought anything extraordinary there, nothing any other actresses couldn't have done. She also shares the screen with Qually pretty equally. Don't get the hype.
ya'll really need to be reminded that Grande is a trained theater actoress. like she literally is a musical theater kid at heart. she just segwayed into pop star moment (guessing due to her agents/marketing thinking she'll be huge there). so it's no surprise that she killed Glinda - something she poured her heart and soul into for like 2 years. she will win.
Nobody sees her as that besides her stans. I would vote for her to win, but these guys are just stating what voters might think and it’s not an unreasonable take
Breaks my heart that Joan Chen doesn’t have a hope. My favourite supporting performance of the year by a million miles. Left me thinking about my own mother so much 🥰
@@dahomey2001 I don't think Rossellini will get the nomination but even if Focus campaigned harder for Chen I don't think she'd receive a nom, the role isn't meaty enough and the movie is just a decent coming of age.
@@martin3980 agree campaign wouldn’t have made a difference, the genre definitely doesn’t make it possible really. But don’t think it is down to lack of meat in the performance- what I appreciate is that it is a supporting story bubbling towards a big scene. It is a whole arc! Despite less screen time I’d argue more meat than the supporting favs 😅
Are there any Brazilians here in this comment section? We have to mount an unprecedented social media campaign to get Fernanda nominated. I’m very confident that brazilians can actually unite to annoy and harass the academy enough to actually nominate her lol
I don’t know guys…you’re reeeeeeeeeeeeally making me want to hit that subscribe button…& I don’t do that often. Very much enjoying your conversations about this season!
I feel like Kate Winslet could pull an Annette Benning I feel Angelina Jolie is this year's Lady Gaga in House of Gucci Also, if nominated, Demi Moore could garner enough support to win (like Jamie Lee Curtis)
@@kayliahferrero To me, Castellitto's performance was very interesting because he played so much into the character's sincerity and candid nature. Unlike the other characters, his motives are completely undisguised, which makes his appearances oddly refreshing.
Best Actress: 1. Madison (newbie narrative, Best Picture nominee (if not win), Palm Springs WIN, Santa Barbara Film Festival WIN, Savannah Film Festival WIN, Virginia Film Festival WIN, Mill Valley WIN, Elle Women in Hollywood WIN) 2. Kidman (veteran narrative, career-best performance reviews, Volpi Cup WIN, National Board of Review WIN, Palm Springs WIN, fresh off AFI Lifetime Achievement WIN), 3. Erivo (smash hit narrative, Best Picture nominee (if not win), Critics Choice Win) 3. Marianne Jean-Baptiste (indie pick narrative, clear British favorite, Denver Film Festival WIN, NYFCC WIN), 5. Jolie (biopic narrative, showy role, star factor, kinda hanging by a thread in terms of actual nominations/wins, but Lorrain's leading ladies have a history of getting in) Torres, Ronan, Gascon, Swinton, Moore, Adams, Saldana, Anderson and the others don't have narratives that are as strong as the actresses above, nor the nominations (Gascon excluded). Not sure why anyone would even think that Winslet or Zendaya are in the running at this point? Challengers fizzled out a long time ago, and it was never an Oscar-friendly film to begin with. Winslet in particular has zero traction.
I haven't seen The Brutalist but it seems like you guys are massively downplaying Guy Pearce. The man is one of the best actors in the world and has given many Oscar worthy performances, and the critics are saying this is his best work yet.
I'm curious, why do you two think that the BAFTAs will not go for Ariana Grande? I remember when there was doubt that Emma Stone would win at the BAFTAs for La La Land because of the stiff competition from British actresses at the time, but she still won nonetheless.
La la land won best picture there, and almost everywhere else Also emma’s only competition was snubbed at the baftas that year Baftas favor british actresses 90% of the times
@@user-jq4pk4kf4s It looks like the only English actress in the top 5 for supporting actress is Felicity Jones. So she's going to be Ariana's major competitor at BAFTAs.
Denzel got nominated for some random ass boring drama in 2018 I think he's gonna get nominated for one of the most buzzed about and successful movies of the year.
Yeah I don't like the term but that was straight up copium from Oscar Expert, he doesn't like the movie and he can't get it in his head that Denzel is beloved by most people as, at the very least, the best of part of it
I haven't the slightest clue how Madison is still the leader after Cynthia's performance came out. That's insane. Yelling and cussing the whole movie versus what Cynthia does is just an insanely lesser performance.
Questioning Jolie's nomination over Gascon's is wild to me. She's a veteran in the industry and pretty much a lock, probably the only real contender for the win next to Madison.. now that's sth a lot of people don't want to admit. I'd say Madison and Jolie are the only locks, the rest is up for grabs. I hope Erivo, Jean-Baptiste and Moore take the other nominations, but Demi will probably get snubbed for Kidman or Torres
Demi will definitely get snubbed for Kidman. Nicole just snatched the National Board of Review. Demi is out. In fact, I'd say Kidman is the strongest right now, with the AFI Lifetime Achievement Award, the Volpi Cup, International Palm Springs Film Festival, and National Board of Review. The twins are off.
I‘m so excited for the Goldderby Poll, I don’t know how and especially when I did it, but I have Adrien Brody with 100/1 locked in and double points active… That’s going to be a massive amount of Points haha
Ariana Grande... I will say I have to call you crazy. I think she's #2, but it's coming off Thanksgiving weekend where hype is still in it's peak. Golden Globes will not give Wicked an award outside of Cinematic Achievement (which is what they did for Barbie, song too I guess). They have no reason to. This new globes leans international voting and decisions. Bodes well for Emilia Perez. And they have been had a strong campaign. Grande is higher than Gomez, but Gomez has a lot of connections that Grande doesn't have. Gomez is able to have a screening hosted by Meryl Streep. Perez has yet to fail despite the negative user reviews, it keeps getting noms
I think Wicked can win everything! But… It’s a Part One and for that, I’m hesitant on those acting wins. It feels weird not just being nominated but maybe winning again for Part Two a year later. I can see them splitting it with Ariana winning this year and Cynthia wins next year? I dunno?
My 5 for leading actress at the Oscars are in order: 1. Mikey Madison 2. Cynthia Erivo 3. Karla Sofia Gáscon 4. Demi Moore 5. Fernanda Torres but in the moment the only one I'm feeling 100% confident will get the nom is Madison. The other 4 are really close to Kidman, Ronan, Jolie and Marianne Jean-Baptiste
My current predictions on the app (as of 6.12): *Best Lead Actress:* 25. Jessica Lange (Long Day's Journey into Night) 24. Saoirse Ronan (Blitz) 23. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) 22. Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) 21. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) 20. Sohelia Golestani (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) 19. Tilda Swinton (The End) 18. Emma Stone (Kinds of Kindness) 17. Ryan Destiny (The Fire Inside) 16. June Squibb (Thelma) 15. Kate Winslet (Lee) 14. Florence Pugh (We Live in Time) 13. Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) 12. Zendaya (Challengers) 11. Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) 10. Amy Adams (Nightbitch) 9. Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) 8. Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) 7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) 6. Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Demi Moore (The Substance) 4. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) 3. Angelina Jolie (Maria) 2. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) 1. Mikey Madison (Anora) *Best Lead Actor:* 27. Tom Hiddlestone (The Life of Chuck) 26. Paul Bettany (The Collaboration) 25. Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine) 24. Timothée Chalamet (Dune: Part Two) 23. Sebastian Stan (A Different Man) 22. Misgah Zare (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) 21. Hugh Grant (Heretic) 20. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker: Folie à Deux) 19. Keith Kupferer (Ghostlight) 18. Ethan Herisse (Nickel Boys) 17. Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness) 16. Kingsley Ben Adir (Bob Marley: One Love) 15. Glen Powell (Hit Man) 14. Cillian Murphy (Small Things Like These) 13. Jharrel Jerome (Unstoppable) 12. Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time) 11. Nicholas Hoult (Juror No. 2) 10. Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night) 9. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson) 8. Paul Mescal (Gladiator II) 7. Daniel Craig (Queer) 6. Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) 4. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) 3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) 2. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) 1. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) *Best Supporting Actress:* 26. Karen Gillan (The Life of Chuck) 25. Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) 24. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) 23. Michele Austin (Hard Truths) 22. Rebecca Ferguson (Dune: Part Two) 21. Fernanda Montenegro (I'm Still Here) 20. Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) 19. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) 18. Rachel Sennott (Saturday Night) 17. Jennifer Lopez (Unstoppable) 16. Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown) 15. Lesley Manville (Queer) 14. Joan Chan (Didi) 13. Toni Collette (Juror No. 2) 12. Leonie Benesch (September 5) 11. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) 10. Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) 9. Maria Bakalova (The Apprentice) 8. Margaret Qualley (The Substance) 7. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) 6. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Saoirse Ronan (Blitz) 4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) 3. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) 2. Ariana Grande (Wicked) 1. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) *Best Supporting Actor:* 26. Mark Hamill (The Life of Chuck) 25. Jeremy Pope (The Collaboration) 24. Harris Dickinson (Blitz) 23. Josh O'Connor (Challengers) 22. Javier Bardem (Dune: Part Two) 21. Dennis Quaid (The Substance) 20. John Lithgow (Conclave) 19. J.K. Simmons (Juror No. 2) 18. Austin Butler (Dune: Part Two) 17. Drew Starkey (Queer) 16. Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) 15. Adam Pearson (A Different Man) 14. Harris Dickinson (Babygirl) 13. Jonathan Bailey (Wicked) 12. Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora) 11. John Magaro (September 5) 10. Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside) 9. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) 8. Peter Sarsgaard (September 5) 7. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) 6. Stanley Tucci (Conclave) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Yura Borisov (Anora) 4. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) 3. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) 2. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) 1. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) P.S. look me up on The Awards Expert app @poihpio98 for more wrong predictions and even wronger favourites!
I think you guys might be severely underestimating Sebastian Stan for.. A Different Man. The path is right there. It’s a super SAG friendly performance, playing an actor, it’s partially paired transformative makeup work that def also can get nominated, he’s actually just as likely to win the Globe in Comedy if not moreso than Glen Powell, the film is gonna start gaining solid precursor support, the film is being campaigned well, and it’s more awards friendly than Craig for A24 to push. Of course coating all of that is the publicity around Stan being ignored for The Apprentice. Hell, I wouldn’t shrug off a dark horse Screenplay nomination.
If A24 starts pushing him… it feels like they’ve got their hands full right now. But I’m rooting for him! Hope he gets a win at GG. That would really boost him. Would love to see him get the 5th slot now that Craig seems like a distant dream by the second. 😢
Denzel has ALWAYS gotten the Oscar nomination whenever he gets the Globe nomination. The only exception is 2007 American Gangster and that's the year Gosling, Depp, Tommy Lee Jones were ALL over the place. And Ruby Dee stole the highlight from Denzel especially in SAG. DENZEL HAS NEVER GOTTEN THE BAFTA NOM If he gets the globe he's getting the Oscar nomination. He has 10 globe noms and 9 Oscar noms. Even Daniel Day Lesis has multiple globe noms that didn't translate to Oscar nom. Denzel is still top #2 You're reasoning is WILD
I think Zoe Saldana deserves the supporting actress award. What I don't like, is that if Zoe wins, I know the internet will be unfair to her and hate on her even though she was amazing in Emilia Perez
Fernanda Torres should be definitely nominated first of all because of her outstanding and flawless performance in I’m still here, 2nd because it’s time for the academy to includes other nations (specially non English speakers) for the Oscar’s main categories. 3rd, it would be amazing to her in the same category as her mother Fernanda Montenegro was nominated in 1999’s Central station , til this day, she was the only Brazilian artist to be nominated on the Oscar’s. EVER. Would be amazing to see her finally even winning the category for her mother and herself 26 later. Historic!
Thanks Brother Bro for bringing up the racism in constant over criticism of Washington’s speech. There were Africans as part of the Roman Empire. 😡 Also Washington is playing the fun villain so I am saying he gets in.
Ariana is a lock on supporting actress with high chances of winning so snubbing Cynthia would be way more uncomfortable/ugly than a regular snub, I think it's safe to assume they wouldn't
I have a feeling that Karla Sofia will get snubbed at the end. 😏 And you guys ranking way too high ? WOW ! Prepare to be shock on the nomination day, guys. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
I’m most looking forward to Best Actress noms. It’s such a competitive year I’m interested in who gets those spots after Madison and Gascón. I agree if Cynthia gets the nod she is a potential spoiler for Madison. I’d argue Moore and Kidman are battling it out for 5
I think that Karla Sofia Gascon is getting snubbed on Oscar nominations morning. I think Nicole Kidman is going to come in and crash this awards season. We are not talking about how she could win for Babygirl.
I’m really on the edge of taking out Daniel Craig. As much as I want him to get nominated I get a feeling that the film is too divisive and he just isn’t that strong. Also usually the comedy golden globe winner gets in so maybe Powell or Eisenberg?
If demi moore get a nomination, margret qualley is getting one too Remember resse winterspoon in wild? Laura dern came along for best supporting actress This was such a left feild nomination nobody expected it
I have a strong feeling Nicole Kidman is going to break in, either Karla, Cynthia is totally not going to be in there, and Demi may be replaced by Kidman
This year could play out just like 2013. Sandra Bullock was the main focal point of Gravity, but Cate Blanchett was just undeniable. Mikey Madison could be Sandra Bullock, while Marianne Jean-Baptiste could be Cate Blanchett. Plus, Hard Truths could also get a Supporting Actress and Screenplay nods just like Blue Jasmine.
There's a lot of buzz around Kidman's performance already. Hoping the late Christmas release will give her the final boost she needs to make it into the top 5. Karla feels more and more likely for a snub right now. Emilia Perez was already released, it's already on Netflix and NO ONE is talking about her. And as much as I would love to see a trans woman being nominated, the actual performance is nothing special. Zaldaña steals the show. Even though I don't think she's Oscar-worthy, I would love to see Moore nominated. And a lot of people are wanting that, too. So, we'll see if the love is enough. Not many people talking about Jolie, but she does seem likely and it is a Netflix movie, so most voters will probably see it and vote for it. Really hope Erivo is snubbed. Wouldn't mind Grande making it, though. Jean-Baptiste and Torres seem to be fighting over that fifth slot right now. That surprise nomination a la Yalitza Aparicio perhaps.
I don't want to use that word, but it's still microaggresive how you guys say zoe saldana was the frontrunner because there was no competition. That’s absolutely a lie. Independently how you feel about her movie, she’s been the frontrunner for so long because her performance is incredible
I agree with Oscar Expert that Denzel is being overhyped for an Oscar based on his performance in Gladiator II. Just look at Washington’s amazing body of work, and this performance isn’t even in his Top 20.
Idk why but I feel like Lily Rose-Depp in Supporting Actress for Nosferatu could be a real thing. I could see that picking up steam by the time the film actually comes out in theaters, every single review for the film raves her to an ungodly degree
So so scary that we're even considering the possibility of Gascon and Erivo getting in over the likes of Swinton, Baptiste, Kidman, Torres. A terrible state of affairs.
I agree, I watched the movie and at the end I was like wait, what was THE scene everyone keeps talking about. It was whole lot of nothing, but never underestimate the power of nepotism.
Two videos in one day ugh we are blessed, thank you guys
3 for members
Re: Ariana Grande.... people keep saying well this is her first acting role, so she won't win her first movie. You guys at least acknowledged she has TV acting experience (people often forget that) but she was also on Broadway. She has a lot of theatre experience that gets overlooked because of her pop star status. If you watch her on SNL you can see she's talented, her comedic timing is impeccable. I think she's proved herself in this role to be taken seriously.... not saying she'll win, but don't underestimate her chances on the incorrect perception that she's a newbie who got lucky with a good role.
Ariana has this nomination in the bag. 1. She killed it acting wis. 2. She killed it singing and dancing wise. 3. Her movie will earn over a billion. 4. She's campaigning in supporting, which is a lot less competitive. Case closed. Also, I'm not an Ariana fan (more Lana fan), so this is completely objective.
Chalamet in his 1st nomination same thing Broadway & TV
Won cast GG Acclaimed performance CMBYN didn’t win.
She was also in an Oscar nominated movie already (Don’t Look Up).
She was in 1 broadway show, 2 years before starring in a nickelodeon tv show
Nene leakes from real housewives of atlanta starred in 1 musical being chicago, that doesn’t make her a broadway actress
Yall are literally looking for things to get mad at. They're not even close to dismissing her. They're literally going off their vast knowledge from following the awards season each year. And they're right. This IS Arianas first big movie role. She is very unproven. This is literally comparable to Butler v Fraser and we know how that turned out. And please STOP bringing up her work in 13. She wasn't even lead. No one in the film industry cares about that role for her. Just stop.
I really wanna Fernanda Torres to be nominated for best actress. I just watch the I'm Still Here and I'm obsessed with her and found out her mother was Fernanda Montenegro who's the first (and the only one) brazilian actress to ever be nomitated in the oscar and i think this so cool because her movie is literally my favorite brazilian movie i've watched and would be such a interesting narrative.
Fernanda Torres deserve the nominee to the Oscar! Had a amazing performance in the movie.
I still think Zoe's career and connections within the industry will make her win in the end. She's worked with so many Academy members, and she's very talented and overdue. This is their opportunity to award her after being involved in so many blockbusters and films the industry loved, such as Avatar. I think she will win.
Her performance during “El Mal” was a showstopper.
BEST ACTRESS
1. Mikey Madison (Anora)
2. Angelina Jolie (Maria)
3. Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)
4. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
5. Demi Moore (The Substance)
BEST ACTOR
1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
2. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
4. Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
5. Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Ariana Grande (Wicked)
2. Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)
3. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
4. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
2. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
3. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
4. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
5. Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
great picks, the only ones I really don't see happening are Barbaro and Torres
Denzel is getting nominated lol
Kidman's Volpi Cup and National Board of Review Best Actress award would like a word with you. Also, Jesse Eisenberg? Be fr.
@@blackforest825 With new the National Board of Review winners, Nicole Kidman may take Demi Moore's spot and Daniel Craig may take that Jesse Eisenberg spot. Everything is changing with the new nominations coming out.
i agree w this generally except for demi moore getting a nom
Don't be surprised if Jesse Eisenberg gets the #5 actor slot. I think his chances will build as the season goes on.
I hope so.
not happening
MTE, the movie will probably be in BP, it will get a Screenplay nomination, Culkin is maybe winning SA, and all the other contenders for the 5th place are very weak, so he's my 5th place.
terrible actor
He could be this year’s Paul Mescal or Colman Domingo last year, but Real Pain is definitely a strong film.
Fernanda Torres is Sony’s best shot
Ngl I thought a bit and I think Grande and Saldana will have like a Butler vs Fraser where you don’t know who’s gonna win till they do. I honestly don’t know who will take it
I feel like Saldoña’s narrative is going to come in handy. Plus Grande’s role is more dramatic in the second half. I wonder if people will go, “I can vote for her next year.”
@@Sharpe1502tho i believe ariana will be for best actress next year
@@erenhypen4718she won’t
Keep an eye out for Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor. If NICKEL BOYS wins an Oscar in any category, Supporting Actress is the most obvious place to reward the movie.
One thing against Grande is voters will know they have another chance to reward her next year
I really like the idea of her winning for Part 1 and Cynthia winning for Part 2, it would feel... poetic. And apparently that’s what’s more likely according to people who’ve seen Wicked on stage.
I dunno if Ariana would if she’s already won but maybe Cynthia could be nominated twice for the same role? I’m not sure whether that’s happened before.
@@rocco3605 This has happened only 6 times so far (same actor getting 2 nominations for same role). Bing Crosby (for playing Father O'Malley in GOING MY WAY and THE BELLS OF ST. MARY'S), Peter O'Toole (King Henry II in BECKET and THE LION IN WINTER), Al Pacino (Michael Corleone in THE GODFATHER and THE GODFATHER PART 2), Cate Blanchett (Queen Elizabeth I in ELIZABETH and ELIZABETH THE GOLDEN AGE), Paul Newman (Fast Eddie Felson in THE HUSTLER and THE COLOR OF MONEY) and Sylvester Stallone (Rocky Balboa in ROCKY and CREED).
Only Crosby and Newman have won any of their nominations (Crosby for GOING MY WAY and Newman for THE COLOR OF MONEY).
Right I think Zoe should win
I actually think the person to at least watch out for is Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, especially since it looks like NICKEL BOYS is a contender and her category could be an ideal place to reward the film. Besides, she was snubbed for ORIGIN, so has an IOU factor as well. It also helps that she is a recent previous nominee too (she was nominated for KING RICHARD).
An Adrien Brody / Chalamet showdown would be also cool because Chalamet is gonna be 29. The same age Brody was when he won as the youngest actor to win to date.
Chalamet will beat him by a few months.
Remember when u guys were predicting 2 nominations for Saoirse ronan in best lead and best supporting
@@singstreetcar5881 I still think she could get in for blitz if globes and Bafta bring her back into the convo. I haven’t seen it yet but just seems too early to call anything
She's still part of my top 5. I really think her performance in The Outrun is one of her best.
@@bradysmith4405 Bliz seems like it's completely off the radar though, and the Outrun isn't seen by anyone. They still love her though and maybe they'll throw her one of the two nods. But that's a big maybe in a year with Kidman, Jolie, Grande, Erivo, etc.
Karla Gascon is the vulnerable of a snub. That movie is very divisive. Nicole could take her place.
I hope she left out
@@Igor1234-r1d I've been saying this since day one. No one wanted to hear it. The movie is DOA
@@luismiguelcuervo8885same I could see that
She and Zoe Saldaña are good in the movie but the movie itself is absolute trash, it will definitely bring them down.
@ If you take out Zoe, it has a direct award for Grande. For me, I would eliminate Emilia Perez from all the categories, but Zoe deserves it even if I don't like the movie.
As a horror fan, I would like to see Demi Moore getting a nomination. However, I would freak out if Fernanda Torres makes it. I know that things are more difficult for her considering she is Brazilian and she's part of a Portuguese speaking film. But, she truly deserves it. So, fingers crossed.
Marianne Jean-Baptiste has just won the NYFCC Award
Yes she did I think it’s still possible she makes it into the top five and I’ll watch the film when it comes out.
NYFCC is not a good predictor for the oscars
The last NYFCC Best Actress winner to win the Lead Actress Oscar was Cate Blanchett for "Blue Jasmine." Marianne Jean-Baptiste's performance has been compared to Blanchett's. That's something to consider.
@@jonathanbarchiesi2853 She's getting nominated, she's almost a lock
@@davidpunzalan7354 Thanks! Blue Jasmine is from 2013, people should really remember. But no, I have seen Baptiste's performance is nothing like Blanchett's. It won't get a nomination.
I think Cynthia Erivo will get the Oscar nom, I really think if Wicked is top 3 to win picture idk how they would snub one of the two actresses that are the reason that the movie works so well
Agreed. The screen actors guild voters, critics Choice voters and Academy voters already gave the film a standing ovation and that's enough for them to be cemented as full front and runners even this late in the race. Watch Wicked dominate the Oscars and the precursors. The Academy likes show-stopping and crowd pleasing musicals that do get nominated. Wicked is set for almost 14 nominations including best picture director and screenplay. All the acting performances specifically, the two leads are the ones that carry the film so much that it will be enough to push it over to the finish line of screen actors guild cast win. It's chances are getting stronger by the month.
@@AntsTheaterCorner2698 who’s gonna tell you they make standing ovations for every film show at their screenings?
@dahomey2001 I knew that. None of them were like this though. It was the best turnout that they had since Oppenheimer. That'll give you an indication, but we'll see what happens. Come Oscar night.
lol
@@AntsTheaterCorner2698 14? No way, only three films had that many. Maybe 10, and I loved the movie. But yeah, I think BP, Erivo and Grande are all guaranteed a nod. For best actress, I think it's going to be Kidman (veteran), Erivo (box office darling), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (indie pick), Mikey Madison (newbie nod), and Jolie (the obligatory biopic choice) or Torres (the obligatory foreigner).
Would love to see Fernanda Torres in Best Actress Lead, it would be nice to se such a subtle performance recognized
I think Tilda Swinton is a good contender. Rooting for Fernanda, but I know how hard this is. I watched Emília Perez and it’s really strange the hype on this film. Karla and Zoe are the best pieces of it. My prefictions for actress:
1. Mikey Madison
2. Marianne Jean Baptiste
3. Angelina Jolie
4. Nicole Kidman
5. Cynthia Erivo
Literally just wrote this in the comment. It's shaping up to be this. I don't think Jolie, Ronan, More, Swinton and others are gaining as much traction. I still don't think Madison will win though, but I haven't seen the film yet.
Fernanda Torres deserves that spot! Brazil is rooting for her!
glad to see you included Yura Borisov here. He hit the exactly correct tone for a pivotal part
I'm getting nervous about Karla Sofia Gascon. She's good in the film, but compared to the wattage of (arguably her co-lead) Zoe Saldana and in a race this tight, I close my eyes and can absolutely see her as one of the faces in the collage of those "Biggest Snubs" article come Oscar morning.
Excited to see Fernanda Torres on the Golden Globe's list to get started this awards season!
There is no hostility or at least there shouldn’t be about Ariana Grande getting an Oscar. She used to do Broadway. It’s very similar to Barbra Streisand winning best actress for Funny Girl. Great video as always!
She was on one broadway show back when she was a child, before becoming a Nickelodeon girl
Barbra won as a tie, with a different voting body at that time, and with the most succesful movie of that particular yeae
@ right I get that. Not really sure what you are trying to say though. You think she shouldn’t receive a nom/win or you do?
@@NerdyFilmGirlthe issue here is yall keep bringing up her theater background like she's Ariana Debose or something, like that makes her a veteran actor. You can promote her and say she should win without constantly dipping into that well. Also, having theater experience means nothing in regards to the Oscar's.
@ I think it just drives people crazy when they say the only thing she has ever done is Nickelodeon. That’s why they bring it up.
@ and Oscar’s should be based off of specific performances not career (even though I know that factors into things sometimes)
I am very much in support of an Arianna Grande win.
I say this as someone who’s not really a fan of her music career. Nor do I have any nostalgia for her time on nickelodeon.
I think, the thing most important to mention about Grande is how she has for decades been one of the most outspoken fans and supporters of Wicked the broadway show.
Arianna largely attributes Wicked to be the thing that encouraged her the most to pursue a legitimate career in music and acting.
She’s been life-long friends with the two leads of the broadway show and knows the show like it’s practically the bible.
For her, the opportunity to be in Wicked was one that she put her entire career on hold for 5 years despite being one of the biggest pop stars in the world. That takes a lot of guts and sacrifice to do.
Despite being a lifelong fan, she didn’t cave or crumble in the role which very easily could have happened given her status in the music industry. It’s clear she put in the research, she put in the effort to tap into a character she idolized only to become them, and she knocked it out of the park.
When I watched Wicked, I didn’t see the popstar that she is. I saw Glinda. I saw the character. I saw a character who was incredibly funny, but also reserved especially during the opening number in the film. You could see a character that wants to shout at the rooftops how an entire village is wrong and misguided and hand to hold back under pressure.
What was clear to me is that Arianna had landed her dream role of her career. One that she had been waiting for, for two decades. And she again didn’t crumble under the pressure, she thrived.
She was the best part about the entire film and it showed.
…
Long story short. There is a very clear and compelling narrative that Arianna can tell to awards bodies.
To me, I think it’s clear how she is more than worthy of a win. A deserving one at that.
She should not be overlooked because she’s “just a popstar”.
🎉🎉🎉
Edit your post to end with “She should not be overlooked only because she’s “Popular”” PLEASE
I would love to see Demi Moore nominated but the movie being horror does bring her chances down, especially in an already packed category, Toni Collette's monumental snub for Hereditary wasn't that long ago
True but Moore being in comedy at globes almost guarantees she’ll at least get a nom there. Collette didn’t get a globe nom or sag. Just seems like Moore will get more televised precursor attention. Plus Hereditary wasn’t contending in many other categories
Love this discussion, i get exited for awards season !!! Great video as always!!!
I’ll say this again, Margaret Qualley I think will show up in a percursor or two (Golden Globes, CC) and then miss the Oscar
Isabella's mom won the same award for a really short screen time in Murder on the Orient Express, possibly an interesting narrative.
FERNANDA TORRES S2
Hopefully
We all know and admit it, The Substance movie will still be remembered and Demi Moore's performance for the coming years and decades
Really? I love the film but I don't think Demi Moore brought anything extraordinary there, nothing any other actresses couldn't have done. She also shares the screen with Qually pretty equally. Don't get the hype.
In best actress, I just really want Marianne Jean-Baptiste to happen
The Saoirse Ronan buzz kinda died lol
ya'll really need to be reminded that Grande is a trained theater actoress. like she literally is a musical theater kid at heart. she just segwayed into pop star moment (guessing due to her agents/marketing thinking she'll be huge there). so it's no surprise that she killed Glinda - something she poured her heart and soul into for like 2 years. she will win.
no.
@@originalsainthood yes
Nobody sees her as that besides her stans. I would vote for her to win, but these guys are just stating what voters might think and it’s not an unreasonable take
I have not heard a single positive thing about Emilia Perez outside of this channel.
At least they aknowledge it’s controversial and might end up slipping. I’ve seen other revienta and awards people completely drool over it
You're not listening in very many places.
Breaks my heart that Joan Chen doesn’t have a hope. My favourite supporting performance of the year by a million miles. Left me thinking about my own mother so much 🥰
she was devastatingly amazing, I'm keeping her at #5 as my hopediction...also june squibb in leading
Well blame that on focus features
Isabella rossellini and her 6 minutes are being prioritized
@@dahomey2001 I don't think Rossellini will get the nomination but even if Focus campaigned harder for Chen I don't think she'd receive a nom, the role isn't meaty enough and the movie is just a decent coming of age.
@@martin3980 agree campaign wouldn’t have made a difference, the genre definitely doesn’t make it possible really. But don’t think it is down to lack of meat in the performance- what I appreciate is that it is a supporting story bubbling towards a big scene. It is a whole arc! Despite less screen time I’d argue more meat than the supporting favs 😅
Hi you’re both great
Will you make a GG noms predictions video?
Adrien Brody could pull out some "Hilary Swank" situation!!!
Are there any Brazilians here in this comment section? We have to mount an unprecedented social media campaign to get Fernanda nominated. I’m very confident that brazilians can actually unite to annoy and harass the academy enough to actually nominate her lol
Eu to fazendo a minha parte comentando que Ainda Estou Aqui é melhor que Emilia Perez (fato) em TODO post da Academia KKKKKKK
😂 yeah dont mess with our Brazilian rage lol
am i the only one who thinks Ariana Grande wins the Oscar and people don’t see it because she’s a huge pop star
id love to come back to this comment in 3 months time
no.
Nope, we're all thinking it. She better snatch that award, she f-ing worked her ass off.
CLOCK IT
@@itzlikesupernatrual clocked.
I don’t know guys…you’re reeeeeeeeeeeeally making me want to hit that subscribe button…& I don’t do that often. Very much enjoying your conversations about this season!
Fernanda torres has to bo there. She is the best performance of the year
I feel like Kate Winslet could pull an Annette Benning
I feel Angelina Jolie is this year's Lady Gaga in House of Gucci
Also, if nominated, Demi Moore could garner enough support to win (like Jamie Lee Curtis)
lady gaga’s performance was mocked and caricaturized for its unseriousness
@dahomey2001 yes but i'm predicting how it's gonna perform in the awards season
I'm disappointed that we aren't talking about Sergio Castellitto's performance as "Cardinal Tedesco" in Conclave!
He was best in show imo!
i liked when he hit his lil vape
He did nothing much....ralph fiennes and rossellinni had more scene chewy scenes and the black pastor.
@@kayliahferrero To me, Castellitto's performance was very interesting because he played so much into the character's sincerity and candid nature. Unlike the other characters, his motives are completely undisguised, which makes his appearances oddly refreshing.
Best Actress:
1. Madison (newbie narrative, Best Picture nominee (if not win), Palm Springs WIN, Santa Barbara Film Festival WIN, Savannah Film Festival WIN, Virginia Film Festival WIN, Mill Valley WIN, Elle Women in Hollywood WIN)
2. Kidman (veteran narrative, career-best performance reviews, Volpi Cup WIN, National Board of Review WIN, Palm Springs WIN, fresh off AFI Lifetime Achievement WIN),
3. Erivo (smash hit narrative, Best Picture nominee (if not win), Critics Choice Win)
3. Marianne Jean-Baptiste (indie pick narrative, clear British favorite, Denver Film Festival WIN, NYFCC WIN),
5. Jolie (biopic narrative, showy role, star factor, kinda hanging by a thread in terms of actual nominations/wins, but Lorrain's leading ladies have a history of getting in)
Torres, Ronan, Gascon, Swinton, Moore, Adams, Saldana, Anderson and the others don't have narratives that are as strong as the actresses above, nor the nominations (Gascon excluded). Not sure why anyone would even think that Winslet or Zendaya are in the running at this point? Challengers fizzled out a long time ago, and it was never an Oscar-friendly film to begin with. Winslet in particular has zero traction.
I haven't seen The Brutalist but it seems like you guys are massively downplaying Guy Pearce. The man is one of the best actors in the world and has given many Oscar worthy performances, and the critics are saying this is his best work yet.
Kind of hilarious how every person currently contending to win the Supporting categories is straight up a Lead.
I'm curious, why do you two think that the BAFTAs will not go for Ariana Grande? I remember when there was doubt that Emma Stone would win at the BAFTAs for La La Land because of the stiff competition from British actresses at the time, but she still won nonetheless.
La la land won best picture there, and almost everywhere else
Also emma’s only competition was snubbed at the baftas that year
Baftas favor british actresses 90% of the times
@@user-jq4pk4kf4s It looks like the only English actress in the top 5 for supporting actress is Felicity Jones. So she's going to be Ariana's major competitor at BAFTAs.
Denzel got nominated for some random ass boring drama in 2018 I think he's gonna get nominated for one of the most buzzed about and successful movies of the year.
winslet has been doing a LOT of celebrity screenings... id watch out for her
Fernanda Torres >>>> all
Really hope saoirse ronan and jesse plemons get nominated
Denzel Washington is definitely getting his 10th Oscar nomination. I can't see it not happening
Yeah I don't like the term but that was straight up copium from Oscar Expert, he doesn't like the movie and he can't get it in his head that Denzel is beloved by most people as, at the very least, the best of part of it
@@davidmitchell-baker1701just because he is loved doesn't mean he will get nominated.
I haven't the slightest clue how Madison is still the leader after Cynthia's performance came out. That's insane. Yelling and cussing the whole movie versus what Cynthia does is just an insanely lesser performance.
Rossellini- career nomination/never had one- best picture tie in. Lock
Questioning Jolie's nomination over Gascon's is wild to me. She's a veteran in the industry and pretty much a lock, probably the only real contender for the win next to Madison.. now that's sth a lot of people don't want to admit. I'd say Madison and Jolie are the only locks, the rest is up for grabs. I hope Erivo, Jean-Baptiste and Moore take the other nominations, but Demi will probably get snubbed for Kidman or Torres
Demi will definitely get snubbed for Kidman. Nicole just snatched the National Board of Review. Demi is out. In fact, I'd say Kidman is the strongest right now, with the AFI Lifetime Achievement Award, the Volpi Cup, International Palm Springs Film Festival, and National Board of Review. The twins are off.
Demi should definitely be nominated, erivo shouldnt be nominated, mikey should definitely win
I think Glen Powell has a great chance at SAG due to the performance AND the fact it’s a Netflix movie which they show out for
But people won't remember that movie when voting begins.
Post-NYFCC, Marianne Jean-Baptiste and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor are coming for their Oscar nominations.
Yeah, nothing of significance will happen between now and Oscar nominations at all. NYFCC the ultimate predictor
I‘m so excited for the Goldderby Poll, I don’t know how and especially when I did it, but I have Adrien Brody with 100/1 locked in and double points active… That’s going to be a massive amount of Points haha
LOOOOL. Haters are going to meltdown when Ariana Grande wins. She's coming!
9:44
"So what the fuck is the number 5?"
Ad break: "So what is ClickUp?"
Ariana Grande... I will say I have to call you crazy. I think she's #2, but it's coming off Thanksgiving weekend where hype is still in it's peak. Golden Globes will not give Wicked an award outside of Cinematic Achievement (which is what they did for Barbie, song too I guess). They have no reason to. This new globes leans international voting and decisions. Bodes well for Emilia Perez. And they have been had a strong campaign. Grande is higher than Gomez, but Gomez has a lot of connections that Grande doesn't have. Gomez is able to have a screening hosted by Meryl Streep. Perez has yet to fail despite the negative user reviews, it keeps getting noms
wicked is so overrated and you guys will see in the future how much this hysteria doesn't make any sense
I think Wicked can win everything! But… It’s a Part One and for that, I’m hesitant on those acting wins. It feels weird not just being nominated but maybe winning again for Part Two a year later. I can see them splitting it with Ariana winning this year and Cynthia wins next year? I dunno?
My 5 for leading actress at the Oscars are in order:
1. Mikey Madison
2. Cynthia Erivo
3. Karla Sofia Gáscon
4. Demi Moore
5. Fernanda Torres
but in the moment the only one I'm feeling 100% confident will get the nom is Madison. The other 4 are really close to Kidman, Ronan, Jolie and Marianne Jean-Baptiste
Stop with the delulu. Karla Sofia Gascon did not give an awards-caliber performance
yess
My current predictions on the app (as of 6.12):
*Best Lead Actress:*
25. Jessica Lange (Long Day's Journey into Night)
24. Saoirse Ronan (Blitz)
23. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux)
22. Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door)
21. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters)
20. Sohelia Golestani (The Seed of the Sacred Fig)
19. Tilda Swinton (The End)
18. Emma Stone (Kinds of Kindness)
17. Ryan Destiny (The Fire Inside)
16. June Squibb (Thelma)
15. Kate Winslet (Lee)
14. Florence Pugh (We Live in Time)
13. Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door)
12. Zendaya (Challengers)
11. Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl)
10. Amy Adams (Nightbitch)
9. Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)
8. Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)
6. Nicole Kidman (Babygirl)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Demi Moore (The Substance)
4. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
3. Angelina Jolie (Maria)
2. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
1. Mikey Madison (Anora)
*Best Lead Actor:*
27. Tom Hiddlestone (The Life of Chuck)
26. Paul Bettany (The Collaboration)
25. Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine)
24. Timothée Chalamet (Dune: Part Two)
23. Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)
22. Misgah Zare (The Seed of the Sacred Fig)
21. Hugh Grant (Heretic)
20. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker: Folie à Deux)
19. Keith Kupferer (Ghostlight)
18. Ethan Herisse (Nickel Boys)
17. Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness)
16. Kingsley Ben Adir (Bob Marley: One Love)
15. Glen Powell (Hit Man)
14. Cillian Murphy (Small Things Like These)
13. Jharrel Jerome (Unstoppable)
12. Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time)
11. Nicholas Hoult (Juror No. 2)
10. Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night)
9. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson)
8. Paul Mescal (Gladiator II)
7. Daniel Craig (Queer)
6. Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
4. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
2. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
1. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
*Best Supporting Actress:*
26. Karen Gillan (The Life of Chuck)
25. Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door)
24. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux)
23. Michele Austin (Hard Truths)
22. Rebecca Ferguson (Dune: Part Two)
21. Fernanda Montenegro (I'm Still Here)
20. Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door)
19. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters)
18. Rachel Sennott (Saturday Night)
17. Jennifer Lopez (Unstoppable)
16. Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown)
15. Lesley Manville (Queer)
14. Joan Chan (Didi)
13. Toni Collette (Juror No. 2)
12. Leonie Benesch (September 5)
11. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
10. Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez)
9. Maria Bakalova (The Apprentice)
8. Margaret Qualley (The Substance)
7. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
6. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Saoirse Ronan (Blitz)
4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys)
3. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson)
2. Ariana Grande (Wicked)
1. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
*Best Supporting Actor:*
26. Mark Hamill (The Life of Chuck)
25. Jeremy Pope (The Collaboration)
24. Harris Dickinson (Blitz)
23. Josh O'Connor (Challengers)
22. Javier Bardem (Dune: Part Two)
21. Dennis Quaid (The Substance)
20. John Lithgow (Conclave)
19. J.K. Simmons (Juror No. 2)
18. Austin Butler (Dune: Part Two)
17. Drew Starkey (Queer)
16. Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson)
15. Adam Pearson (A Different Man)
14. Harris Dickinson (Babygirl)
13. Jonathan Bailey (Wicked)
12. Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora)
11. John Magaro (September 5)
10. Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside)
9. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
8. Peter Sarsgaard (September 5)
7. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
6. Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Yura Borisov (Anora)
4. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
3. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
2. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
1. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
P.S. look me up on The Awards Expert app @poihpio98 for more wrong predictions and even wronger favourites!
I think you guys might be severely underestimating Sebastian Stan for.. A Different Man. The path is right there. It’s a super SAG friendly performance, playing an actor, it’s partially paired transformative makeup work that def also can get nominated, he’s actually just as likely to win the Globe in Comedy if not moreso than Glen Powell, the film is gonna start gaining solid precursor support, the film is being campaigned well, and it’s more awards friendly than Craig for A24 to push. Of course coating all of that is the publicity around Stan being ignored for The Apprentice. Hell, I wouldn’t shrug off a dark horse Screenplay nomination.
Plus, its recent win at Gotham will help his chances tremendously.
It will make 5 Dollars at the box office. Calm down.
If A24 starts pushing him… it feels like they’ve got their hands full right now. But I’m rooting for him! Hope he gets a win at GG. That would really boost him. Would love to see him get the 5th slot now that Craig seems like a distant dream by the second. 😢
Denzel has ALWAYS gotten the Oscar nomination whenever he gets the Globe nomination. The only exception is 2007 American Gangster and that's the year Gosling, Depp, Tommy Lee Jones were ALL over the place. And Ruby Dee stole the highlight from Denzel especially in SAG.
DENZEL HAS NEVER GOTTEN THE BAFTA NOM
If he gets the globe he's getting the Oscar nomination. He has 10 globe noms and 9 Oscar noms. Even Daniel Day Lesis has multiple globe noms that didn't translate to Oscar nom.
Denzel is still top #2
You're reasoning is WILD
I feel like you guys made a more compelling case for Eisenberg being 6th than Powell.
Whiplash from how fast this came out
I think Zoe Saldana deserves the supporting actress award. What I don't like, is that if Zoe wins, I know the internet will be unfair to her and hate on her even though she was amazing in Emilia Perez
She’s like the lead in the movie
Fernanda Torres should be definitely nominated first of all because of her outstanding and flawless performance in I’m still here, 2nd because it’s time for the academy to includes other nations (specially non English speakers) for the Oscar’s main categories. 3rd, it would be amazing to her in the same category as her mother Fernanda Montenegro was nominated in 1999’s Central station , til this day, she was the only Brazilian artist to be nominated on the Oscar’s. EVER. Would be amazing to see her finally even winning the category for her mother and herself 26 later. Historic!
Jamie Lee Curtis campaign was praising Michelle Yeoh so I can see how praising Kieran Culkin can be a winning strategy.
Thanks Brother Bro for bringing up the racism in constant over criticism of Washington’s speech. There were Africans as part of the Roman Empire. 😡
Also Washington is playing the fun villain so I am saying he gets in.
Ariana is a lock on supporting actress with high chances of winning so snubbing Cynthia would be way more uncomfortable/ugly than a regular snub, I think it's safe to assume they wouldn't
i dont think voters really vote on identity politics, they vote for the shit they like
@@robertsaner8766 What the hell does my comment has to do with identity politics?
Margot Robbie got snubbed last year.
Yup. I think Cynthia misses just barely which may push Ariana over the line to win.
Saying Borisov is the heart and soul of Anora is a big reach imo
I agree, that's one insane take, especially when you have the actress who's pouring her heart, the whole body and soul in that role...
Both have been amazing
I am OVERJOYED to finally see Cynthia in the lineup. You can check the comments, I’ve been advocating for her all year 😊
Whether or not he gets Best Actor, Jesse Eisenberg is easily getting two nominations this year, for producing and writing A Real Pain.
I have a feeling that Karla Sofia will get snubbed at the end. 😏
And you guys ranking way too high ? WOW ! Prepare to be shock on the nomination day, guys. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Am I the only one who was much more impressed by Paul Mescal in Gladiator than Denzel Washington?
i thought both were fantastic
I’m most looking forward to Best Actress noms. It’s such a competitive year I’m interested in who gets those spots after Madison and Gascón. I agree if Cynthia gets the nod she is a potential spoiler for Madison. I’d argue Moore and Kidman are battling it out for 5
Gascon is not a lock
I think that Karla Sofia Gascon is getting snubbed on Oscar nominations morning.
I think Nicole Kidman is going to come in and crash this awards season. We are not talking about how she could win for Babygirl.
Fernanda is coming...
I’m really on the edge of taking out Daniel Craig. As much as I want him to get nominated I get a feeling that the film is too divisive and he just isn’t that strong. Also usually the comedy golden globe winner gets in so maybe Powell or Eisenberg?
If demi moore get a nomination, margret qualley is getting one too
Remember resse winterspoon in wild? Laura dern came along for best supporting actress
This was such a left feild nomination nobody expected it
I myself as a brazillian love Fernanda's job. But i think the nominees are going to be:
1. Cynthia
2. Mikey
3. Nicole
4. Angelina
5. Tilda
3.
4.
5.
thought that was austin butler in the thumbnail and almost got a heart attack
I have a strong feeling Nicole Kidman is going to break in, either Karla, Cynthia is totally not going to be in there, and Demi may be replaced by Kidman
I’m not budging on Cynthia. I’d put Jean Baptiste over her
Demi honestly
Have you seen the Baptiste performance? That will help your judgement
@@pb.j.1753I haven’t but I’ve heard amazing things, and she just took the NY critics award
This year could play out just like 2013. Sandra Bullock was the main focal point of Gravity, but Cate Blanchett was just undeniable. Mikey Madison could be Sandra Bullock, while Marianne Jean-Baptiste could be Cate Blanchett. Plus, Hard Truths could also get a Supporting Actress and Screenplay nods just like Blue Jasmine.
There's a lot of buzz around Kidman's performance already. Hoping the late Christmas release will give her the final boost she needs to make it into the top 5.
Karla feels more and more likely for a snub right now. Emilia Perez was already released, it's already on Netflix and NO ONE is talking about her. And as much as I would love to see a trans woman being nominated, the actual performance is nothing special. Zaldaña steals the show.
Even though I don't think she's Oscar-worthy, I would love to see Moore nominated. And a lot of people are wanting that, too. So, we'll see if the love is enough.
Not many people talking about Jolie, but she does seem likely and it is a Netflix movie, so most voters will probably see it and vote for it.
Really hope Erivo is snubbed. Wouldn't mind Grande making it, though.
Jean-Baptiste and Torres seem to be fighting over that fifth slot right now. That surprise nomination a la Yalitza Aparicio perhaps.
Why would you want Erivo to be snubbed?! She’s incredible
I don't want to use that word, but it's still microaggresive how you guys say zoe saldana was the frontrunner because there was no competition. That’s absolutely a lie. Independently how you feel about her movie, she’s been the frontrunner for so long because her performance is incredible
lol 'microaggresive''
I agree with Oscar Expert that Denzel is being overhyped for an Oscar based on his performance in Gladiator II. Just look at Washington’s amazing body of work, and this performance isn’t even in his Top 20.
Idk why but I feel like Lily Rose-Depp in Supporting Actress for Nosferatu could be a real thing. I could see that picking up steam by the time the film actually comes out in theaters, every single review for the film raves her to an ungodly degree
I like the film and her performance but Nosferatu is way too violent, scary and gory to get noms beyond some tech categories
@ that’s my suspicion as well
9:44 Keith Kupferer will be this year's Andrea Riseborough.
Why? He's not campaigning at all. He's also not Andrea level at all (status wise)
I like Cynthia Erivo but I’m reluctant to take out Nicole Kidman.
So so scary that we're even considering the possibility of Gascon and Erivo getting in over the likes of Swinton, Baptiste, Kidman, Torres. A terrible state of affairs.
Kieran going supporting is ridiculous and as much as I like the movie and his performance, I’m hoping a real supporting actor prevails
Is it too crazy to swap Karla and Angie with Marianne and Nicole?
Marianne-Jean Baptiste gave a phenomenal performance in Hard Truths. She could pull it off to win for best actress.
Why is Rossellini even a mention? She's barely in Conclave & does nothing of note really. anybody could've played that role.
I agree, I watched the movie and at the end I was like wait, what was THE scene everyone keeps talking about. It was whole lot of nothing, but never underestimate the power of nepotism.
Yeah, I feel like that category has gotten a bit competitive for her name to be near the top 5. Her big scene is not even THAT big.
I thought she was the best thing in that film. Anybody could have played what Ralph Fiennes did