Why Most People Are Wrong About This…
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- Опубліковано 28 чер 2024
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Email: Arete@Aretetrading.net
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Indexes
4:56 - Inverted Yield Curve + JPY
11:30 - Tech Inflows
23:40 - Quad Witching Strategy
37:06 - NVDA Trade Walkthrough
43:25 - AAPL
43:12 - Semiconductors
49:00 - Sector Analysis - Розваги
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my thought is that this year only unimantic will show itself, it's capitalization has grown a lot this year,
so it's going to keep going up.
To me, the fact that the DXY and SPY are disconnected for the first time ever means that one of the figures has lost meaning. I don't believe that "this time is different" because of AI. I train AI, and trust me those LLMs won't be doing anything important for at least 5 years. Anyways... I'm bullish because I realize that math doesn't currently matter.
I think the negative effect of DXY still exists; you just don't see it on S&P for the following reason:
DXY is negatively correlated to XLI, XLB and XLF.
TNX is negatively correlated to XLK, XLC, and XLY.
As SPY is now dominated by XLK and XLC, and TNX has been dropping, SPY is still going up.
BTW, I fully agree with what you're saying about AI.
@Agooo13431 that's a solid observation! AI is far overhyped in the short term, underhyped in the long term. It will keep rising though because it is the narrative being used to continue the stock rally during a time when we have the most incompetent leadership ever in America.
@@jshatfield115fully agree with that last statement as well
Agree
Lol first time ever? You know how wrong that is with 2 min of charting right?
Guys don’t worry, we have this new tech that will save us! It’s brand new it’s only been around for….60+ years. Oh wait…have we been sold a smoke show filled and promoted by Wall Street greed? It’s been fun, just get out before the music stops!
AT: I have a slightly different take on DXY.
First of all, there is a lot more to DXY than the $/¥. The biggest component of DXY is the $/£. The thing is, with all major central banks except the Fed cutting or staying at zero, DXY is very bullish.
DXY is negatively correlated to XLI, XLB, XLE and XLF.
TNX is negatively correlated to XLK, XLC, and XLY.
As SPY is now dominated by XLK and XLC, and TNX has been dropping, SPY is still going up.
Practically to me, this means being now bullish on XLK, XLC, and some XLY names, while being, for now, bearish on commodities, crypto, copper and some industrial names.
I know it’s a subtle thing but putting the actual book cover is helpful, also love the book suggestions, keep em coming
Really appreciated the options explanation and how the MM’s manipulate the pricing on quad witching. Would really like to see more options tutorials. Great work as always!
The breadth discussion was interesting, is there a way to view a market-cap adjusted new highs/new lows? Equal weight for all may be losing some information, as it over-weights the contribution of a small stocks.
Your channel is the best. thanks for the Quad Witching lesson!
Really useful ep on Greeks, yes, more please, with real world examples. Thanks, subbed
RSP looks like attempt to hold and base demark count 4 to the upside. I dont think reason to panic. we have correctly pretty frequently in 2024 with about 8 2-3% drawdowns on IXIC regularly to correct. 8% in April, another 3% in may everytime you've made a new high after 1-2 weeks and it looks pretty stable in structure. typically in a regular market you will get 7 to 8 3% corrections in a year on average 1 10% correction we've already done that in 2024. Maybe they got it out of the way. Sometimes if u look at the gaps for example the gap above 540 you often dont fill those for at least a couple months. SPX doesn't have parabolic structure yet looks like a way to work off each new high so it doesnt go parabolic.
I'm with Anthony on this one. Mid-caps inflow can offset mega cap drawdown with rotation you can also see rotation into AMZN and GOOG as they haven't had parabolic runs yet. All very structured climbs. Doesn't look washed out just yet
Thank you, very informative. You are inspiring me to want to learn more about options and option writing. I traded options years ago just for leverage, not for hedging like you're doing. Selling puts to buy calls is an interesting idea, I need to think about that some more. I'd love a video about why someone should bother to augment their trading with options rather than sticking with etfs and stocks, but that may be too basic for this channel.
I think you section on the yield curve is an important one, I do think it holds significance though when it uninverts, not saying I’ll immediately sell everything, but I’ll be very vigilant
Nobody is saying don't buy equities now, the real pain doesn't come until after the re inversion....everytime.
Great video. I really enjoyed the advanced tips on options. I always look forward to your videos. I appreciate how real you are.
You're the best! Thank you so much! Finished the HF Edge. Read chapter 2 10 times you're right its not an easy read at all!
Anyone has some possible "predictions" where IWM (small caps- Russel 2000) will bounce? Looks like a descending trend, but how low? I heard (youtube ) FED is still going to look for more economic data before interest rate cuts, which IWM will probably not getting an uptrend till then?
I didn’t think the submarine beeps were too loud. The graphics were cool! Looking forward to the next one. ❤
Really appreciate the time you put into making this amazing content and keep the advanced options strategies coming.
Informative, useful and excellent video as always!
I suspect that the XLK rebalancing is a nothing burger because the prices that matter for the underlying sector index they use for their ETF are last Friday's and last Friday's prices have NVDA still in 3rd place for market cap, with MSFT in no1 and AAPL in no2. Not sure where we go next week but I suspect it won't be nearly as bad as the doomsayers say.
Thanks for this video and all the streams and videos you make. You are a gem and I am so grateful that you do this. Trade to win!
Thank you for making this kind of educational video. Very useful!
Glad to see some discussion on options. I find being a net seller of premium really fits my trading psychology.
I want to have more than premium selling in my toolkit, butI haven't really given day trading a serious try, just occasionally on days when the market overreacts.
There is always more to learn, which is why I really enjoy your analysis. Is is great that you explain your work, not just handing out conclusions.
great content on more advance concepts on options! keep them coming.
Amzn rebasing between 191-170 ish…buy point $191.80 ish long and $169 short…adbe worth a look too
Great video. Tons of very insightful information 🙏
Great education. Thanks
I had to look that one up "three black crows" is a bearish candlestick pattern that can indicate a market downturn and a potential reversal in an uptrend.
If gold is setting up for a slingshot move within anytime from imminently to the next 2 months, but markets are correcting by up to 10% from this Monday onwards, with a brief uptrend before a larger step down in the autumn, and considering gold goes down with markets, how does one read this? Can gold slingshot whilst the rest declines by 10%. I did not think that was a pattern/normal. Is it even possible? OR with a 10% correction, does any set-up sling-shot move just get delayed until the correction in the wider market has bottomed? Someone help me with this!
It's when the yield curve un-inverts. And look at the 3M/10Y, not the 2Y/10Y. 3M/10Y has never failed.
Thanks. very helpful concepts. I trade a lot of credit spreads having a smaller account with long positions Like ENPH that are down alot so i hold them for the future trying to earn cash while waiting. Its hard when the long positions get hammered then killing my buying power but Ive diversified more to help lessen the swings.
Very good for the free advanced lesson ! Enjoy your weekend !
Thanks for all the work you put into the vids . So much VALUE! I like the deeper dives .
Great video! I enjoy how you explain your logic.
This is your best video all year. I really like how you explained the Greeks for options. I'd like you to dive deeper into multiple leg options strategies. Keep bringing on these advanced concepts! ty
Thanks for great video , loved that You included books.
Nice video. Thanks. Will mark out the last hour of the stocks I'll be trading the the next day. Heard it before but never implemented it. As far as NVDA goes, I'll be patient for now. My initial target down was 126 because of the intraday MA cross overs that I identified yesterday. while trading it. But I see other chartists saying it's going lower. to 115. So I'll wait.
Awesome video. Appreciate the work. Hope you keep them coming.
Everything will go down end of the year 2023 levels and one more rally for lower high and crash by end of this year
bonds up and yield down or price of bonds down and yields up.
Thank you for these videos; I find them extremely helpful and am learning alot!
Thank you so much!
Excellent review of FACTS versus "popular narratives"... 👏
If I were trading options on quad witching, I would be selling iron condors on SPY, but I don't daytrade, and especially not on quad witching
They were buying NVDA at the price it was a couple of months ago. Is it still
cheap🤔
light bulb just turned on....completely understand my Friday now. appreciate
I agree with what you said about fear mongering and clickbait. I do want to say though that while 30 datapoints is good, 5 or so is not insignificant. I’d say it’s more likely than not that a recession will occur given that data.
Great and extremely helpful information!Appreciate the time and effort you spend on this content. Thanks
Excellent analysis.🔥🔥🔥
Thanks Mate, the sad truth is that no one has a clue, we all react to what happens as it happens and try to analyse it but can’t predict an iota of what is going to unfold in the markets… content creators are like amplifiers, when times are good they affirm it and try to tell you why it’s good and that it’s looking bullish but then all of a sudden the market turns bearish and everyone affirms it again and try to analyse why… it’s so sad that many are so powerless and it's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 19Bitcoin in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Kerrie Farrell, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape...
I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Kerrie’s trade signal service...
As a beginner, it's essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable...
Kerrie Farrell program is widely available online..
Investing with an expert is the best strategy for beginners and busy investors, as most failures and losses in investment usually happen when you invest without proper guidance. I'm speaking from experience....
The fact that i got to learn and earn from her program is everything to me think about it, it's a win win for both ways...
we're about to CRASH up hard... SPX 6k by end of July easy
Bullish all the way
It's not when we are inverted but rather when we come out of inversion.
I enjoy the mix of basic and advanced, don’t be afraid to get really advanced. It’s difficult but the world of trading is difficult
thank you
Interesting: "even if it drops 5% it allows to buy stocks lower" everyone is so bulled up it's a guarantee that we are going higher...
I find the equal weighted Nasdaq very interesting. It’s forming a MASSIVE bullish wedge
Read a Benzinga analyst saying NVDA would have broken down without the "Momo crowd aggressively buying the dips"!
No one that’s smart listens to Benzinga. They’re wrong most of the time.
@@prettybrwneyez7757 "Smart"?🤣🤣🤣
@@ik-hi7ywDid I stutter? I don’t think so. Comprehension issues, perhaps?
@@prettybrwneyez7757 😅😅😅😅😅
My man is worth his weight in gold. love your analysis
Equal weight S&P and Nas 100 were both up on Friday and on the week. Maybe this impending downturn is a bit exaggerated. 🤷♂️
Price action for MU, if we open above highs from Friday, My target for earnings will be around 164 !!!!
I actually loved the Thursday lecturing video, it was something u offered to us and that was classich
Why did most traders flip how they felt about a Fed cut. Ever since the Fed paused, most traders seemed bullish about a Fed cut coming. But now they are bearish about a Fed cut coming?
How do you fight inflation? Raise Rates. What does that do? It creates a tightening of financial conditions. What does that do in a prolonged period? It normally causes a what?
@@hunterjager9538 oh oh I know! A recession!!
Curious about the CDK hack on day 4 maybe 5 now....how this will effect the numbers on new/used car sales... manheim... Did hacker hack at a perfect time on the charts 😎😆 Also, if they pay hackers.... what does that mean? 😂 just thinking out loud. Great weekend video. Options education & how to tie market data all together. Will listen a few more times, that is for sure ♥️🔥 also shared.
You are also suppose to be concerned that the dollar will be worthless. It never ends the fear mongering. It sells and that is the number 1 thing you have to learn as a trader.
Also you can make the videos as long as you want.
The dollar is rapidly losing value; it is just not losing value against euro or yen, but against bread and milk.
@@Agooo13431The real question is, do you know why?
@@cerichson yes. How about you?
@Agooo13431 There are about 7 different factors but de-globalization is making supply chains less effective and appears to be causing most issues globally. It's why you are seeing it in every country at the same time.
@@cerichson it's an interesting idea. To me, it's the cycle of deficit spending, debt, inflation, which leads to more deficit spending to finance the debt, and so on ...
Inflation is not a new phenomenon; it is just hidden under a mountain of lies.
DXY is rising because the global West (Japan included) hooked its wagon to the dollar, so the US is the least dirty shirt in the laundry
Great video, but I'm not buying anything until I see the elevator coming down. "Way down". We have a big buying opportunity coming. Maybe not this year but it's coming and its coming big. Deep breaths 😊
You’re gen X if you’re 40 something…. Not a boomer. Right?
Right
lol. Yeah he’s way off. Boomer = 1946 to 1964
Awesome!
Cheers!😁
15:00 We can't go back too far. That would lead us into the anomalies.🤔 What happened back then.🥃🥃
Now THIS was good sh!t! ❤❤❤
The voice of REASON.....
Cranky AT: get off my options lawwwn. 😂
Awesome content as always. Comment section is full of people telling me what the market will do. Joke is on them, I don't care what it will do.
U do sound a little bit cranky tbh
I kind of like it
I'm always cranky
LOL I do right?
Doesn't really sound cranky to me. It boggles my mind how easy going most youtubers are, like they are not even buying stocks or tradind at all.
Excellent again
Just a thought. Our parents are boomers. We are not boomers. I'm in my late forties to 😊
With this dudes tone you would think we are coming out of a crash lmfao The S&P hasn't even dropped .5 percent. Good lord
Outstanding ❤❤❤❤ frist time listener
"If you are not willing to risk the usual you will have to settle for the ordinary." --Jim Rohn
Looked up US Investing Championship. Dont see the name Arete there.
do you turn into the premkt live show ?
They will only list people who have their results submitted for the timeframe reported on the website. Someone who hasn't submitted by a monthly deadline will fall off the published leader board until next time, provided they've submitted their info by the next time's deadline. Doesn't mean their performance isn't still high enough to be there. You could stay a month behind on reporting all year and never show up publicly, then at the end of the year be fully reported and will show in the final result list if its high enough to be there, and even be the winner.
Example, Arete was in top 15 or so, when the website was reporting thru March. Was up around 35%. The public list is everyone above 0% performance. Do we think he dropped off because he imploded and dropped to 0% YTD? I'm pretty sure that didn't happen.
@@AreteTrading Yes but I never heard you say your name.
@@AreteTrading Never mind. Saw todays video. Thanks. (Maffaei from Billionaire show?
Iam a boomer 😂 thanks Anthony very nice vid!
BOOMERS RULE !
It seems Arete uses information that is readily available and finds edge regardless. how?
experience, making good entries and exits I would suppose.
Bullish all the way to 7000
If your win rate is less than your loss rate wouldn't an easy way to turn that upside down is just do the opposite of what you think is going to happen?
That’s a paradox because then you would have to do the opposite of that😅
Depends on ur average win and loss
noooooooooooooooooooooooooo lol
@AreteTrading
Not a fan of the Costanza method?
🙃
It’s knowing how to SIZE your positions based on potential r/r, and how quickly you cut losses. W/L % is important, but not critical to be right 90%.
Good stuff, thanks. Btw, if you're in your 40s, than you're not a boomer. Too young for that.
gen x!
Gen X or Millenial if you’re early 40s
Top is in. I wouldn’t advise anyone to be buying here.
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Thanks for sharing, I just did a web check with her full names mentioned
It's unexpected to come across her name here. She understands every beginner’s intention and fix you to a trading course that matches your capacity, she knows her stuff! Her advice has been invaluable to my trading journey. Definitely worth giving a shot!
It's truly refreshing to see a comment about Jane Nina Pickett. I've also had the pleasure of working with her for several months after discovering more about her online. She has a knack for simplifying complex issues, whether it's a market surge or decline. Her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the curve. I'd call her a guru, for sure.
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Nice to see this here, Jane's understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. her siignals are top notch
Thanks for Options book recc. YES, you are getting cranky. I've been watching your channel since Covid shutdowns.... many of us traders have xxxxxs accounts, so when you share a strat or opinion the condescending comments don't help. When we say NVDA is expensive it's because maybe we only have $50-100 to trade a day something (options or equity).
🍎
Can anybody tell me what his username is on tradingview. Thanks.
Arete20706
Bang on