Impact of Electric Cars on Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

#energytransition #climatechange #electriccars #science #electricvehicles
What is the current share of electric cars in the global car fleet? How much oil consumption have electric cars reduced in recent years? How much greenhouse gas emissions were avoided by use of electric cars in the year 2023? What is the maximum possible greenhouse gas emission reduction possible if all cars are replaced by electric cars today?
Energy expert, Dr Tushar Choudhary will address these questions and more in this episode.
References & Notes
• IEA Global EV Outlook (2023). Investment section.
• IEA Electric Vehicles (2023). Overview.
• IEA Global EV outlook 2023. Trends in electric light-duty vehicles.
• International organization of motor vehicle operators. Vehicles in use.
• IEA Electric Vehicles (2023). Tracking Report. Energy- electric vehicles avoid oil consumption.
• U.S. EIA (2023). Global Oil markets.
• IEA. Oil demand by sector and scenario to 2030.
• IEA Electric Vehicles (2023). Tracking Report. Energy- electric vehicles avoid oil consumption.
• 1 gallon gasoline releases 8887 grams of greenhouse gases (GHG).
• The average carbon intensity of electrical grid was 480 grams of GHG per kWh in 2022. This was used to estimate the GHG produced from the 70 TWh electricity consumed by the electric cars.
• EDGAR: GHG emissions of all world countries.
• According to IEA, the electric car sales in 2023 are estimated to be 14 million. This would increase the global fleet of electric cars from 26 million to 40 million. This number can be used to estimate the net GHG reduction for the year 2023 based on data from the previous year.
• Relative to coal power, low carbon power emits 95% lower GHG emissions per kWh of electricity generated. The global coal power plants emit 10.5 billion tons of GHG per year. This means that replacing 0.5% coal power with low carbon power will reduce GHG emisions by about 50 (10500*0.005*0.95) million tons per year.
• IEA. Cars and Vans. CO2 Emissions section.
• IEA Analysis. Comparative life cycle GHG emissions from a midsize BEV and ICE vehicle.
• IEA Analysis. Comparative life cycle GHG emissions from a midsize BEV and ICE vehicle. This analysis does not consider the impact of marginal intensity of electricity. It uses average intensity of the electrical grid. The correct use of marginal intensity will lower the positive impact from electric cars in many regions.
• The 50% reduction is too optimistic based on recent studies. Prior studies used the average carbon intensity of the grid. The carbon intensity of the marginal electricity used by electric cars is more relevant. The marginal electricity is typically provided by coal power or natural gas. So, the carbon intensity of the marginal electricity is typically higher. This translates to a lower benefit from electric cars.
• EDGAR. Electricity data explorer.
• IEA: Comparative life cycle GHG emissions from a midsize BEV and ICE vehicle (Updated October 2022).
• Electric cars emit 50% fewer greenhouse gases compared to conventional cars when considering global average carbon intensity.

[@shirishwaghode5419]

Good information shared.

[@KeyEnergyFacts-TC]

Thanks! Glad it was helpful!

[@user-jb2om7cm8m]

Nicely made video. Though estimates like 'can reduce the global greenhouse gas emissions by 3.5%' could also mention that this is only human sources of emissions. Which are a small fraction of total emissions, about 97% of which are from natural sources like respiration. So forcing everyone to go back to EVs, if viable, could theoretically achieve a maximum of 3% of 3.5% or about .1% of total emissions..

[@KeyEnergyFacts-TC]

Thanks for the comment.

[@quintonmillett5149]

Electric Vehicles put a strain on the power grid they use a lot of electricity, if the number of EV keeps increasing well need more natural gas power plants because the wind isnt always blowing and the sun isnt always shinning, increasing the number of EVs will increase greenhouse gas emissions

[@KeyEnergyFacts-TC]

Absolutely, we need to prioritize cleaning up the grid and reliability. EVs when using low carbon electricity such as nuclear power along with solar, wind and storage can decrease emissions significantly from today. But the way we approach must be smart not like headless chicken as it seems to be today.

[@michaelmueller9635]

It's a little bit missleading to set the global emissions of CO2, which can be saved by using EVs, is set into relation to the EVs market share.
0. The sales of EVs is an exponential curve. Thus EVs will take over the whole sales market (~100%) before 2030 and safe the amount of fuel Russia and Iran combined are exporting. So a status quo report, like done in the video, is not accurate. The current point in time is just a very special one, which doesn't tell anything.
1. The global emissions do not tell much, if they are not split up into sectors. The whole transport sector is going to be electrified and EVs are just a part of it.
Funny enough, this got mentioned (7%); but to set it right there into the relation of the EVs market share would make sense.
So the video is just twisting, one-sided and misinforming at this point.
PS.: Little bet, that 2023 was the peak of fossil fuel production ever. There will be no grow and ever shrinking market for fossils ...forever.

[@KeyEnergyFacts-TC]

Thank you for your comment. The video was about electric cars specifically. It discussed the current impact of electric cars on emissions and maximum possible impact. 7% when the electricity is zero carbon and 3.5% today if the whole fleet was switched over. Also when current impact was shared , so was the current share of total global cars. In summary, the episode covers the whole range. No speculation or predictions, just all the relevant facts. Not sure how this can be considered twisted or biased.