I know what matt here means to say , but never go mainstream. What actually works for channels like this one is being able to pick your own topics , ElNino, sometimes Ecology , Geoengineering if you feel like it , all very important, and I even hope you touch on the politically correct boundaries even more in the future. Mainstream media , most certainly follow agendas , I know enough European state sponsored tv and newspaper outlets, all the same woke agendas en the great green economy revolution etc. Climate and ecology is too important to ever go woke on , or stay within lanes . Keep going where the truth will go. My heroes , among others , were Hardin and Ehrlich, actually scientifically explaining stuff like overpopulation . Science needs bravery again
national tv shouldn't be as corrupt as it is and there wouldn't even be a reason for this thought to exist. the "news" networks only care about money and the best way to generate money is with drama. factual information doesn't cause drama and so it isn't shown as much as it should be. the rare times it is shown is because it will create drama.
I was in high school when the El Niño the Philippines in 1997. Our cereal production engagements were totally halted as our fields were crack-opening due to extreme dryness. That was a hard year for us! If we did not store cereals for ourselves prior to El Niño, we would have starved. Now, we're preparing again for this incoming El Niño. I pray that we'll survive this again. Lots'a love, cheers, & Mabuhay, from tropical Philippines!
It's bull - really? Were you in the same region of the Philippines as Yeng, @@crisdeugzman3711? Was it in reality a year of average rainfall, and normal crop yields?
@@crisdeugzman3711 You seem to be presenting yourself as a disrespectful jerk. You weren't there. Consider also the effect of communication with ESL. Your nit-picking is misplaced.
@@crisdeugzman3711 pag mainit at tuyo boss, natutuyo rin ang palay. Ginagawa talaga yan ng mga magsasaka, nagiistore sila ng harvested na palay during dry seasons para may makain sila. Lakas mo magcall nang-BS palibasa di mo naranasan.
That's tremendous, I have always felt compelled to pursue knowledge and power in order to contribute to the betterment of humanity. Been seeking a means to be influential and find out more knowledge about the human race and about the things not everyone is destined to know. I wish to fulfill the goal of enlightenment passed down by our forebears.
I can totally relate to your passion, if all that is what you desire then i think it's achievable. Joining the Illuminatus Brotherhood can lead to the enlightenment you seek and more. I am well aware that the idea of this group may sound mythical but it is possible to join.
@@Margart526 Yeah I acknowledge that misunderstanding can occur when people encounter what they don't fully grasp, especially in this internet era. The Illuminatus advocates for the acceptance of all religions. You can look up "Anthony Szymon". Will give you clarity and answers to any questions you might have.
Welcome to weather modification geoengineering, n military industrial complex. La Nino, ElNino has been a climate cycle from the beginning of time. Humanity has an emissions issue and those linguine lines coming out of the jets in the past 1.5 decades are holding in outgoing radiation.
What would it take to alarm you? This is a disaster and will impact crop production badly. I hope humanity responds to the increasing food shortages in a way they never have before....calmly and sharing what is left
@@PatriciaLucious-ll2vm saying there will be either an El Niño or La Niña could be called prophecy, or prediction, but explanation of how they happen is just an explanation
@@PatriciaLucious-ll2vm Ah, yes - because you're a scientist and can understand and interpret the data. Or - you just listened to some fruitloop on the 'net somewhere and have come away 'convinced'.....
It's more important that individuals offer ways to create the wealth to manufacture and install the required infrastructure for the ones that wish to change. The solution is enable desert land to Flow with Milk and Honey!
@@cruxer666 I ate some sandwiches for breakfast with a papier rice wrap with vegetables and ham. If you are eating bugs, maybe you should just stop? You don't have to force yourself. And where are you getting your insects from? They don't sell them anywhere I am shopping.
I'm in Malaysia and we've had a mix of extremely hot weather (so that the jungle is drooping) with afternoons of relieving rain. However, some days the extreme winds keeps the rain clouds from moving out of the mountains or onto the land from the South China Sea (I'm on the east coast) so that the rain cannot cool the land or give the jungle the water it needs. This is only May so I expect temps to get higher in May, June, July. However, it's already extremely hot in the house, on some days, even under a fan. It causes us to sweat while sitting. My Malay husband asked me if I thought Kuala Terengganu would flood in the next 10 years. I said, yes based on the info in your videos. I think it will be sooner than later and we have talked of selling our home but my husband suggested building a houseboat since we live adjacent to the river.😂
Same thing happened here in Jakarta around April. Hot weather since the morning and suddenly it started to rain around 4PM until 7PM We are gonna facing very long dry and hot season this year I guess 😂
I live in Peru, and can say that the 1997/98 El Niño was catastrophic. Now we are in late autumn, and the weather is unusually warm. Thanks for the clearly explained video 😊
Same here on the east coast of Australia. We're now well into "winter" and we're still wearing T-shirts during the day, it's very warm for the time of year. I'm not complaining as I'm not a fan of cold weather, but I fully realise this isn't normal.
You are being lied to. They take the temperatures by airport runways as planes are taking off. Look at Al Gores “An inconvenient truth” It was so compelling and could scare the life out of anybody who was easily scared. Didn’t happen though did it?
@@Vile_Entity_3545 What didn't happen? Average temperatures didn't trend upward and extreme weather events didn't become more frequent? Well no those things did happen. It's been a while since i watched that movie. Was there some very specific prediction, that keep in mind any of us could look up and verify, that hasn't happened and was terribly inaccurate?
RE: strongest El Nino on record. It was so hot, my elementary school teacher was able to use her outdoor unheated pool for Christmas in Edmonton Alberta Canada.
And what is the temperature there right now? Short term weather variability has nothing to do with climate change which by completely arbitrary definition is defined as the 30 year average of weather. You can hopefully see what complete bullshit this is?
@@JonathanBarnes you missed the point. It’s not stable up here anymore, you could put skates on in December and play on the lake till March. You can’t do that anymore. Temperature not stable, it has changed here in the north, and the fish and whales are going more north because the plankton can’t survive in warmer temperatures. Come up and see for yourself. Don’t care if it’s man made or not. Btw, enjoy the millions of refugees migrating onto your border in the coming years
All I know is that here in the North Island of New Zealand it hasn't stopped raining since about October 2022. There's some local meteorologists that speculate that the Tongan volcanoe has had an impact due the expelling so much vapor into the atmosphere.
I'm from the Philippines and I've noticed that during an El niño event typhoons tend to form near the central pacific ocean which gives them more chance to intensify and hit Japan and Korean Peninsula. During a La niña event, on the other hand, typhoons tend to form near the Philippines which gives them very little time to intensify because they tend to land immediately on land upon forming.
Yeah right. Typhoon Rai (odette) hit the Philippines in La niña. Typhoon Olanda hit Philippines in El niño. Which means nothing. Philippines typhoons are primarily caused by Coriolis (i.e earths rotation). Which is why Northern Philippines get hit more often than the south.
@@jeremyhorne52522012 is srill the record this year will probably see the least amount of melt since 2009 and maybe it could even beat 2006 but lets not go nuts your religion of climate change is no different from burning witches 400 plus years ago
Yes and all the Ocean heat wave action (21.6deg ) already , spells doom for glaciers around the globe, and what is especially bad is how this effects the pine island Glacier in Antartica, enough water to raise ocean levels by 7 meters (21 Feet) , all on its little lonesome ! ( if my memory serves me correctly ?), that's why they call it the doomsday Glacier !.
I'm Peruvian and I've lived through these phenomenon a lot across the years. I was born in 2002 so I can't say how strong the 1997-1998 Niño was, but the 2015-2016 one was big enough to call off schools and cause landslides that left thousands without a home not only in the coast but also in the andes. This summer was also one of the hottest in years, Lima usually doesn't reach temperatures of 33°C or higher, but this summer which kept going for months until late April which is extremely late since Autumn starts in late march. Summer 2023 reached a peak temp of 37°C in some areas in the capital and it was something else. A lot of people suffered from it and to add even more catastrophe, the summer cyclone Yaku was the first of its type in more than 50 years. Lima which is usually a humid but not a rainy city, had 10 times more rain in a week than what it receives in a year, also this winter was expected to be felt more like permanent autumn that a winter as a whole which raises some alarms most certainly. The ENSO System is nothing to joke around, and this one is going to be harsher than we expect.
I live in Guadalajara Mexico and this is by far the hottest summer ever recorded. We are 1550 m high and we are reaching 37 degrees for two weeks already. When in a normal year we would have had refreshing rains already by June. This is scary. It's like 10 degrees above normal.
One of the best descriptions of what's potentially ahead. Wonderful job! Thank you and I agree, you should be nationally recognized and aired!! Well deserved kudos!🙏🙏
I live in Northern Wisconsin, and it is not hot! We got so much snow over the winter that we still have piles of snow melting! Tomorrow is May 1, 2023, and we can expect rain and snow mix for the morning! A high of 44 degrees Fahrenheit! Normally we can start planting gardens by May 15 - 20. This year I recommend waiting until June 1 and I wouldn't be surprised if we still got hit with frost! Maybe it will warm up, someday, but it will just mean a warmer than normal Fall.
In Northern Wisconsin in USA we just had the worst winter in my lifetime. Not the coldest, but record snowfall, freezing rain, and accreting freezing snow that broke, bent or split countless trees. It was INSANE and there was just more snow yesterday 30 April.
I've lived in Southern California for almost 60 years and it's easy to see the three-year back and forth in weather patterns since the early 80s and if we went one more year of drought God only knows. Finally this year as you shown on your map we got plenty of rain and finally some snowpack in the mountains. Sadly we lost a lot of very old oak trees that just couldn't make it.
We actually got a half an inch of snow in Southern California in one go this year and I'm talking snow in the southern most valleys (the Inland Empire). Don't know if you got any where you live but I bet you probably did.
@@dicktracy7393 There are tons of trees being planted. Unless you don't count them because they're new growth and don't have the supernatural powers of old growth, which so many seem to do. I like to imagine them having a fit a thousand years ago as the acorns sprouted in a now ancient wood, screaming about how their pristine ecosystem is being usurped. I'm saddened myself at the disappearing ashes of the east but neither they nor the beetles care about how I feel.
Thank you for the well composed information, even though walking away from this, I was still thinking man that’s depressing. Could be a rough year, everyone be sure to take care of, and help as many people as you can
Interestingly borh those years you refer to 1997 and 2016 were pretty cool summers in North of Norway. 1997 we had extreme winter with accumulated 9 meters of snow. In 2016 the summer were cold and wet. No warming in this region of the world.
No criticism of the video whatsoever, as always very professionally and clearly presented. But, it’s very difficult to not be extremely despondent when faced with predictions like these? 😢 What are we doing as a species? What breaks my heart is that other species always pay the prices for this, whether it’s koalas being burnt alive in forest fires, or sea life being simply unable to cope with their environment. Heartbreaking.
We need to move as fast as we did with the ozone layer in the past. Back then we acted as a world community and managed to get things done. But back then there were no special groups that had skin in the game with their interest in the idea of continued ozone depletion. This time however, we have too many people with too much skin the game that want the status quo of using carbon based products so they can continue to make profit. In the end it will be the want of money over life itself that will be our ultimate downfall.
the other species? have u not seen the current sitatuation world wide? we are fucking our own self to death, to give u and idea, if u see the chart where he shows the rised ytemperatures on red, one of the zones is Pakistan,.. they are already on a really dreadfull situation, this year wont be different
Three years of heat absorbing La Nina to be released by this El Nino, with a starting point higher than the peak of 2016 - we could be in for a rough ride!
We should be for a very rough ride. Writing from Spain, whose southern parts are being devastated by the drought and eco-mismanagement aggravation, I preach almost every day in facebook to climate change denialists demanding repentance... with relevant news about extreme weather and such, including this video.
@MrSpectre287 - Probably the carebear god of warmth went overdrive with his bear hug. Just saying. It's the problem with letting them reaching their own conclusions: "it's not human made, blah blah, Milankovich cycles, blah, blah, blah, there was one day in 1953 when it was even worst in some place or another, blah blah blah, it's been demonstrated that CO2 and climate change are not related, blah, blah, blah". In reality is: "don't touch my car, don't you ever dare".
@@scottslotterbeck3796 - Repent from being affluent and wasting too many resources, else the end is very very near and that's the problem. Because there's no afterlife but there is legacy.
I live in Arizona and this has me a little worried. I point to the Great California flood of 1862 as to why! Prior to that they had been in 20 years of drought! Sound familiar! This last monsoon season and winter was above average wet. Here is the kicker though the thing that really busted the drought back then was the switch to El Nino! Every great flood in California history has occurred during an El Nino. We now have a situation where in California particularly it's probably going to be a pretty long snow melt season. That means less ground absorption. Throw in heavy rains and we could get into another great flood scenario. That would be bad for Arizona and Nevada also. All three states suffered severe damage during the great flood year. Throw in all the population increases and it could get real ugly if it happens! In 1862 over 100 inches of rain fell in a month!!! The history shows it can happen again! Myself I am going to prep for in case it happens. That doesn't mean live in fear! It just means making sure in case it happens I have on hand what I need to get through it!
@@Knifymoloko During extreme weather events like the Great California flood certainly! The town of Gila got washed away then! Read up about your local weather history! If it happened once it can happen again.
Great summary of what the Enso is. This is very hard to explain but you managed to convey the essential in a comprehensive and comprehensible way. Great job.
Terrible news but excellent coverage. As someone writing from Fiji, 2016 was a tragic year and one we have still not fully recovered from. TC Winston gave us a national PTSD. Your video is an anxiety inducing heads-up.
Record breaking temperatures??? Utter bullshit- I'll show you ground truthed temperatures from the 1930's that will be WAY higher. You have been lead like a dog on a lead to believe complete and utter nonsense. NONE of the so called recent hot years were anywhere as near as hot as the 1930's. I can get you proof no problem?
Australia has had a continuous rainy season for 3 years. It is usually wet in Summer, but we had a warm winter 3 years in a row. The Indian Ocean vortex, with the Southern Ocean warning, combined with El Nino gave us floods and tempests.
It was La Nina causing the floods, at least in eastern Australia. El Nino tends to cause heatwaves and droughts in Australia. The last one Australia had was during the fires and heatwaves right before Covid hit.
The Tonga eruption was responsible for locking in Eastern Australian weather patterns. The massive amount of water it pushed into the atmosphere was directly observable via satellite forming a barrier that prevented normal movement of air currents.
@@brynphillips9957I think the fires and heatwave of 2019 took place in a neutral phase actually. He mentioned in this video that the last strong El Niño pattern was in 2016. Though, it might demonstrate the lasting effect of an El Niño event. Looking forward to the next 3 years of drought and extreme heat.
I live in a Northern country and no one had air conditioning when I was young - and few did even in the 90's. Now, everyone has it. Back in the 70's, a hot summer day, really hot, we hit 28-30c. Now, we have major humidity and the temp can reach 44-45c in the heat wave. The land bakes. Winter is milder, less snow. We can discuss and disagree on the causes, but the climate HAS CHANGED and very rapidly.
el Nino our normal summer heat wave creeps north to the pacific northwest... we will still have our hot August heat waves but we will have typically less multi-day cook outs, due to the lack of hurricanes in the gulf giving us high pressure... instead the the high atmospheric pressure creeps north and the east! Bad news even though they don't get hurricanes the pack ice in the north doesn't form which when Florida experiences their king tide more water not trapped in Ice means more flooding.... the butterfly effect in the greatest sense!
@@hoopslaa5235 cooking, in the other hand, will be easy. Just put your pot outside on a black metal sheet, and things will be done in an hour, nice n easy. Though, you might want salads, this summer 😀
Thank you, Richard. El Nino is so complex, and a really good stab at an explanation! And some of the results of the current event could be totally unexpected ones.
It is WAY more complex than what is presented here and the causes and triggers are basically unknown. All we have are hand-waving explanations about water "piling up" and pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo to make it sound like "settled science".
@@tuberroot1112 I agree for the most part. That said, it appears it is getting warmer faster than scientists thought. I'm not convinced, the reason given makes any sense, but I don't believe for a minute human beings can stop it. Also, not convinced human beings caused it. I am convinced it is happening.
@@patrickvanmeter2922 Thanks Patrick. I'm not sure where the "faster than" comes from. The average warming of all climate models since 1990 is about twice the actual measured rate. IIRC, only one run of one of the models gets it roughly right. Logically we should be paying more attention to that model and looking at why it works better. Sadly IPCC wants a wide range of results so that it can maintain the "may be as much as ..." narrative , despite observations disproving it. Once we realise that the rate of warming is in the more beneficial than harmful range we can stop arguing about what causes it.
@@tuberroot1112 I meant they continue to change their predictions. I hope you're correct about rate of warming is more beneficial than harmful. I think it depends on your location. It seems to me the oceans temperatures are unable to recover due to the intense warming. We're about to find out. I live in Baja and the water in the Sea of Cortez is warmer than my shower is.
@@patrickvanmeter2922 Yes, location matters. "global" warming affects winter minima more that summer maxima. In general something like 5x more people die of cold each year than die of heat. On the basis that all lives have equal value, mild warming is net positive. 4-6deg C incr on the mean would be a problem. But that kind of projection is not tenable scientifically.
If a MEGA El Niño brings rain back to Chile for a couple of years it would be great to end the worst mega drought in a millenium... the problem WILL obviously be that usually el niño brings stupid fast downpours of water that are literal atmospheric tsunamis, and flash flood will become an issue, a big one.
It's difficult when the Andes rise steep from the ocean and squeeze all the moisture out of the air. Narrow, with little coastal plain there's little room for that rain to fall.
I live in the southern united states and I thank you for this video. You didn't present it as a alarm bell situation like most news channels tend to do (which is part of the problem imo) and you informed everything very calmly and factually. While I don't understand some of the lingo, it still helped me understand what is going on for the most part. I was mainly curious what it would do to temperatures for the south of the US and I thought it would make things a lot warmer here, but I'm glad to see that is not the case.
Its funny, people always think it won't happen to them until it does. "Oh my house wont be hit by flooding." "Oh the tornadoes are a town over, its fine." Until they've lost everything and have to wade through the hellscape that is our insurance system to get back even part of what you lost... My point is, I'd rather be informed, no matter how "scary / alarming" the news sounds, and be mindful of what that means for me and my own. I also live in the Southern US. With a BIG El Nino like this one - Its the wetter part that will be a problem. Its going to be *alot* wetter. When the low pressure of the Pacific meets the high pressure of the top of north america, that band (where the southern US is) between them is a massive storm generator. The chaos of the two types of pressure meeting creates storms, and we're all under the gun for it. The most chilling part, for me, is that the last La Nina lasted 3 YEARS. Usually 1 season of El Nino is devastating enough in regards to storms and droughts... How would we deal with 3 YEARS of it?
I just came across your video and found it very informative yet easy to listen to. I am very interested on the effects this might have, I moved to Ecuador a couple of years ago and already noticed the increased temperatures in the day time and far more electrical storms and torrential rain here. There has been a few incidents of flooding and terrible mudslides in some areas. I can’t help but wonder how things will develop from now. I am very fortunate to be high enough not to be affected directly by floods nor in a landslide threatened zone. I will make sure to keep an eye out for your updates on the weather situation. Thank you 😊
The global warming pause will come back after each el nino, it's more worrying that we are having such a long period of no global warming, first was in 1998-2013 and now 2016-2023, damn cold world even the date 30th of april has cooled 3c in the last 23 years.
Some day the El Nino will never leave as we keep increasing our emissions every year and there is still no practical way to remove them. Hope has burned off, embrace Extinction.
Just wanted to say hello and sorry I missed you at the Farnborough show on Friday! Next year I'll stay all 3 days! 😂 Had a great time... Smiled so much that my face still hurts.
Good info, but you've forgotten to mention Australia. We have been beaten to death by these weather systems over the past couple of decades so would be good to hear how the El Nino will affect us next summer. Appreciate the info you did provide though...
A great overview of the historical facts together with the current sea temps and the predicted weather trends this year. Quite a lot for a Monday morning! Thanks for the video.
The worst part about ever worsening climate is the realization that the weird miserable weather we are having this year will be some of the nicest weather we will have in the coming decades. We want a better future for our children. We can't continue messing things up.
@@SpeedyCorky Who is going to wipe your butt when you are too old and frail to do it yourself? Or shelve the supermarket, or staff the fire department, or a million other things. As a species we can't simply stop having children.
One thing not mentioned was the global temperature patterns associated with the last two big El Niño events. In bothe 1997/8 and 2015/6 the temperature rose significantly in the event but didn’t drop off much, even during a La Niña. It was basically a new plateau. I suspect this one will take us up to a new level again.
I remember that, wanted to travel to Eugene at turn off century, to pick up one those great Bike Friday folding bikes. But they said wait a bit into things cool down, which it didn't. Had the bike delivered at home instead :)
I'm still wondering if our existence has made any impact, or how much. I know we have polluted the world terribly, but I'm skeptical that the Earth is in danger "because" of us.
Thanks Dave. Here in Panama we're experiencing very different weather from the last few years. Still extremely dry when we would normally expect the first heavy downpour of rainy season at least a week ago and the forcast is for this to continue for perhaps another month. Drinking water supply is starting to be affected and of course the canal, which depends on rainfall to keep the water level high enough to allow the world's shipping to pass, is also feeling the pressure.
@@bobmitchell8012 humans are so irrational,they are always falling for doomsday cults 😂. Paying the government to clean the air of plant food,hilarious 😂😂😂😂😂
Weirdly the effect of that triple dip where I live (Manitoba Canada) was that the jet stream got way off course and we didn't crack the zero C mark for the entire month of March. That hasn't happened in over 130 years. we had a brutally cold, long winter.
Do you mean 130 years ago, long before our polluting carbon dioxide reached its current crisis levels, there was a climate crisis that has taken 130 years more polluting carbon dioxide to match?
@@reuireuiop0 i am happy to do so, just for your personal entertainment😄 have your already removed all electrical installations from your house to really celebrate carbon neutrality? I give you a hint what you have forgotten: that box called a PC!
These presentations are fantastic. It may sound callous, but perhaps a year of catastrophic events driven by El Niño is just what we need. Who knows, if it’s bad enough it may convince humanity to take serious steps to avert an even more catastrophic series of events. Tough love.
@@faarsight I believe it is equally as important to debate/counter-argue/educate such comments as it is with climate denier comments This attitude is subjective because you are not psychic, you cannot know the future, you have no idea if humanity is going to reach a positive compounding feedback loop to make enough of a positive change in time, or not. If i am correct, to have closed your mind off from the possibility of positive change is a cognitive distortion that encourages inaction, often recognisable within the habit of procrastination, which is a form of self-sabotage. (COGNITIVE DOSTORTIONS; All or nothing thinking, Over generalisation, Mental filtering, Disqualifying the positive, Jumping to conclusions, Maximising/minimising, Catastrophising, Emotional reasoning, Personalisation, Blaming) You have made a judgement, based on information you have CHOSEN to believe is correct and allowed it to depress and kill your hope. I DO understand this, i have been there and it's THE most unhelpful way of thinking, if you want positive changes to occur. Hopefully, you are simply experiencing one of the 7 stages of grief and you will pass through them all. I am glad someone mentioned this to me as i found it a helpful reminder, having previously only associated the 7 stages with a loved one's death. You have phrased your words in a similar vein to how a bully would, to induce shame (in those who do still hold out some hope). Was that your intention? Or were you trying to be witty? Possibly boosting yourself by feeling superior, witty &/or wiser for a few minutes? I say this to educate. Words have power, words influence other's and our own actions/inactions/belief structures. Arguably, because of the way you phrased your words (shame inducing) they are thus advocating for a world-view which promotes inaction, pushing for an even worse future than if you'd said 'i wish i shared/i do not have even this small amount of hope' Instead, easily influenced people, (including teens and children) read these types of comments all the time and it stops them from making a positive difference in the world. They then stop others, so on and so forth. The butterfly effect springs to mind. Although not your responsibility, you maybe unaware of the new and booming phenomena of eco-related suicides and eco-anxiety to the degree that therapy and medication is required. I hope you read my message in the vein intended
No we don't. We had that just before the pandemic. Here in Australia, the fires burned a LOT of wildlife. Yes, we're a land of droughts and flooding rains, but we'd like a year or two without either. A bit of variety would be nice.
I have always been fascinated by the weather, even when I was a kid. I love thunderstorms greatly, and keep close tabs on what is forecast by The Farmer’s Almanac and NOAA. some of our weather has been very much affected. We live about 40 miles west of Manhattan and our weather comes directly from the west in the summer (mostly) and from north northwest in the winter. Not lately, however. Hurricane Gloria came up here when I was a kid (I’m 55 now, so this was in the 1980s). Since then, we had no hurricanes until 1999, when Hurricane Floyd did incredible damage to northern New Jersey. But the biggest were Tropical Storm Irene (2011), Hurricane Sandy (2012 - we were lucky- we lost power for 12 seconds. But the Foodtown across the street and friends of ours were unable to live in their house, the store was closed for many weeks, and others we knew deserted their destroyed homes. Lake Hiawatha has a history of flooding), remnants of Hurricane Patricia (2015), remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy and Hurricane Harvey (2017), Tropical Storm Isaias and Post-tropical Storm Zeta (2020), and Hurricane Ida and Tropical Storm Fred (2021). Fred was notable as that storm knocked out out power for two and a half days in August. My husband went to work, I stayed at my father’s house. Our house was hot as blazes and everything in the refrigerator and freezer was thrown out. Now, many, many storms have remnants or full hurricanes that make it up here, but typically affect the coastal areas. But we are far inland and are not affected by them. Last year, one made it to Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island suffered incredible damage. The Atlantic Ocean this far north usually does not warm enough in the typically high-intensity months for big storms. But in October, the ocean water can be quite warm - in the sixties. By then, the air is usually in the sixties, so it is too cold to swim in, but is workable to keep big storms ticking along nicely. Even so, few make it inland, but we’ve gone to very, very few to far too many. An El Niño will bring some change after three years of La Niña, so it will be interesting to see what’s coming. I do well recall the huge El Niño of 1997! It’s funny that others might, as well. I don’t know many people who follow the weather with the interest I do. Thank you!
Another enlightening podcast. I learned many new things I was not previously aware of, with regard to heating of the ocean layers, and it’s devastating impact on global weather patterns and anomalies. I hope that those making government policies are as well informed about this as you clearly seem to be, but I have my doubts about that! Your podcasts are providing the viewing audience with an important resource, about these critical issues. Keep up the good work!
The worst El Nino ive ever exerienced was when i lived near Ft Lauderdale in 2005. After Katrina (Louisiana has gone down in history as suffering a nightmare after that storm) i was without power for a week or so, 12,000$ and of pocket house damage. Not long after hurricane Wilma blew through. No power after that for over 10-14 days, boil water alert for weeks….. no land line, cell service, or power. It gave us a feel for armageddon!
I applaud your ability to present these scientific facts without conveying panic, Dave. Sorry to say, however, that they do invoke a growing sense of panic in me. 😦
Why? Droughts happen everywhere and have been since the beggining of time. Instead of crying about stuff we cant control how about fix what we can? We have so much technology nowadays to where less people suffer from climate problems then ever in history. So since that has improved dramactically everyone acts like thats a bad thing. More people still die from the cold then the heat each year. If are planet were to get colder it would be much worse. Also, he mentioned more wildfires from the heat? The heat has very little to do with fires. Us humans put fires out much faster then ever before so it creates more fuel. Also we have built in places that never had people before and it creates more problems. With power lines and other things humans do to make fires.
Panic is a natural and rational response given what we are all shortly about to experience as the interrupted weather patterns greatly disrupt crop production.
Every area is affected differently by these weather patterns. Where I live, the last few years have had much milder winters and summers - rarely getting cold enough for snow and rarely unbearably hot. This change means we're probably going to have some rougher winter and summer weather!
Very well explanation of difficult interrelated concepts. I have recently sat through lectures on these topics and must say you did a great job keeping it concise and relating back to everyday people. I would have liked to see the SAM (southern annular mode), despite being only south hemisphere located, the el-nino/la nina do interact with this system from an entropic perspective (called teleconnections), which in turn change the local climates (some times makes them colder as this 'polar vortex' is sucked northwards (equal opposite reaction to the northward northern hemisphere movement you showed in the video!) My professor who is an IPCC author (James Renwick) said that if the ocean hadn't absorb the majority of the energy from global warming, atmosphere would already be 50degree hotter! The key tipping points are the west Antarctic icea sheet ~+50m sea level rise (not floating ice, so does raise sealevels), the greenland sheet ~25m and the key one, the ocean's ability to absorb heat is reducing and as a concequece of being hotter, can hold less oxygen!!
I got some inspirations: 1. Techno-optimist geoengineering: rise Polynesia into a new continent and stop El Niño from ever happening again. 2. Warmonger lebensraum survivalist: let's conquer Greenland now, it's prime real state once all the ice is gone. 3. Realistic: let's replace all fossil fuels by solar+hydrogen this very year, we will be back to normal before 2040 if we do so. Which would you prefer?
I'm really glad I came across this, the events happening here in NZ have been ridiculously bad, some elderly say it's the worst they've ever witnessed. I appreciate your explanations, it gives good insight. Wish our Metservice gave better explanations like this.
I really enjoy your channel. Thanks for the excellent content you provide. This was one of the concise and clearest explanations that I have seen on ENSO. I have followed the effects of El Niño since the early ‘80’s. I have lived my entire life in Southern California and know that a very strong El Niño means excellent fishing off the coast, lots of rain and now lots of flowers for my bees. Thanks again for this great coverage. I am glad I discovered your channel this past year.
The fact that it's already been 15 to 30 degrees F above normal in my neck of the woods for most of this year so far, and it normally pushes into "dangerous for humans" in July & August without extreme events...
@@RobinCrusoe1952 Near Washington D.C. Funny enough, right around the time I wrote my comment, temps fell back to seasonally appropriate levels, or close to. But we had a VERY unseasonably warm Dec-April. Still makes me very nervous about high summer, which is brutal here in a normal year.
I live in Northern California in the Sierra Foothills... Last summer the town I live in hit just over 46° C... that's 115°F. It was a little bit scary. I'm going to go work on my swamp cooler now... Damn it.
@@scottslotterbeck3796 i don't know about myself... but there are definitely some people around here that seem that way... parts of them any way, and they do know it... I think that's part of a problem. Think of it this way- the fires took a lot of people's lives... Then the mandatory FEMA "cleanup" took a lot of people's souls. Absolute violation. Theft and destruction of anything that remained. Heavy equipment, cargo containers full of tools, boats, cars, buildings... Even those untouched by the fires- if you were not there to stop them, they literally stole it all. To the ground. It was absolutely bizarre, infuriating, frustrating, spooky... Scary and twisted. Under the circumstances it would be fair to say quite cruel. In a way it was worse than the fire. I do not exaggerate or use hyperbole... It was unfucking real, but all too real, and drawn-out over weeks and months peace.
I hope we gonna have a break in Quebec this summer. Weather have been crazy hot the last couple summers. Having a somewhat colder summer than usual with a normal fall would be really welcome.
There’s only one “weather modification program” on this planet and it’s called greenhouse gases that each and every one of us in the developed world has contributed to.
It was so hot, I took off all my clothes and opened the windows. I felt better, but the other passengers on the bus looked shocked.
The world is full of prudes.
Heat shock probably.
Im just in the back of the bus, enjoying the show, and giving a new meaning to "Heat Stroke"
Fortunately you weren't travelling by plane 😂
😅😅😅 sicko!!!
You really should be on national TV, the way you present this information is brilliant, thanks for all you do 👍
So right. A natural in front of the camera.
Thank you Matt. Much appreciated :-)
I know what matt here means to say , but never go mainstream. What actually works for channels like this one is being able to pick your own topics , ElNino, sometimes Ecology , Geoengineering if you feel like it , all very important, and I even hope you touch on the politically correct boundaries even more in the future. Mainstream media , most certainly follow agendas , I know enough European state sponsored tv and newspaper outlets, all the same woke agendas en the great green economy revolution etc.
Climate and ecology is too important to ever go woke on , or stay within lanes . Keep going where the truth will go.
My heroes , among others , were Hardin and Ehrlich, actually scientifically explaining stuff like overpopulation . Science needs bravery again
@@mickeymrinlandrabbit9297 Misuse of the word "woke" again!
It means aware and reactive to reality, not the derogative which it has been used as.
national tv shouldn't be as corrupt as it is and there wouldn't even be a reason for this thought to exist.
the "news" networks only care about money and the best way to generate money is with drama. factual information doesn't cause drama and so it isn't shown as much as it should be. the rare times it is shown is because it will create drama.
I was in high school when the El Niño the Philippines in 1997. Our cereal production engagements were totally halted as our fields were crack-opening due to extreme dryness. That was a hard year for us! If we did not store cereals for ourselves prior to El Niño, we would have starved.
Now, we're preparing again for this incoming El Niño. I pray that we'll survive this again.
Lots'a love, cheers, & Mabuhay, from tropical Philippines!
It's bull - really? Were you in the same region of the Philippines as Yeng, @@crisdeugzman3711? Was it in reality a year of average rainfall, and normal crop yields?
@@crisdeugzman3711
You seem to be presenting yourself as a disrespectful jerk.
You weren't there.
Consider also the effect of communication with ESL. Your nit-picking is misplaced.
@@crisdeugzman3711 pag mainit at tuyo boss, natutuyo rin ang palay. Ginagawa talaga yan ng mga magsasaka, nagiistore sila ng harvested na palay during dry seasons para may makain sila. Lakas mo magcall nang-BS palibasa di mo naranasan.
@@JeffMountainPicker Chris correctly pointed that the person was parroting terminology present in modern white supremacist scare propaganda.
last la niña, I think 2019, the Philippines was so dry we got water crisis. Then El niño hit us with wet veryyyy high humidity and very hot this year.
That's tremendous, I have always felt compelled to pursue knowledge and power in order to contribute to the betterment of humanity. Been seeking a means to be influential and find out more knowledge about the human race and about the things not everyone is destined to know. I wish to fulfill the goal of enlightenment passed down by our forebears.
I can totally relate to your passion, if all that is what you desire then i think it's achievable. Joining the Illuminatus Brotherhood can lead to the enlightenment you seek and more. I am well aware that the idea of this group may sound mythical but it is possible to join.
@@ddirtdid Hi, isn't the brotherhood a myth? I mean sometimes i just feel like it's all just a conspiracy theory.
@@Margart526 Yeah I acknowledge that misunderstanding can occur when people encounter what they don't fully grasp, especially in this internet era. The Illuminatus advocates for the acceptance of all religions. You can look up "Anthony Szymon". Will give you clarity and answers to any questions you might have.
@@ddirtdid oh really, i just saw his website, which is interesting. I will leave him a message.
Read the Bible
really appreciate how this channel avoids presenting this in an Alarmist fashion but is still very serious about the data
gotta save the alarm for when half of india dies from wet bulb temps
it's time to fight
@@assemblywizard8 ?
Welcome to weather modification geoengineering, n military industrial complex. La Nino, ElNino has been a climate cycle from the beginning of time. Humanity has an emissions issue and those linguine lines coming out of the jets in the past 1.5 decades are holding in outgoing radiation.
What would it take to alarm you? This is a disaster and will impact crop production badly.
I hope humanity responds to the increasing food shortages in a way they never have before....calmly and sharing what is left
This was one of the best, most comprehensive, explanations of the ENSO phenomenon I’ve seen…well done, and thanks!
No it's not. It's prophecy.
@@PatriciaLucious-ll2vm saying there will be either an El Niño or La Niña could be called prophecy, or prediction, but explanation of how they happen is just an explanation
Except ENSO is an effect, not a cause
W
Yes. But I accept the theologian The Mutant Greta Thunberg's dictat.
Ive struggled for years to get my head round El nino and la nina for years but you make it all so simple at last !
People like you still exist you’re proof that informative content is still a real importance to us all
Since he talkin bout climate change, or man made, he's wrong abt that.
Climate change doesnt exist, god didnt create it
@@PatriciaLucious-ll2vm Ah, yes - because you're a scientist and can understand and interpret the data. Or - you just listened to some fruitloop on the 'net somewhere and have come away 'convinced'.....
@@danguee1 nope the 400 yrs r just up that's all.
@@danguee1I believe its just that the sun is near or far from the earth that makes the changes in temperature.
La Nina was around so long I bought her a rocking chair and called her La Abuela.
😂😂😂
Never stop making these. We need more easy to understand climate reporting like this.
Cheers. I will certainly keep going.
Awww no lets eat grass and insects because we started recording temperature few decades ago...
He won't. He thrives on clickbait
It's more important that individuals offer ways to create the wealth to manufacture and install the required infrastructure for the ones that wish to change. The solution is enable desert land to Flow with Milk and Honey!
@@cruxer666 I ate some sandwiches for breakfast with a papier rice wrap with vegetables and ham. If you are eating bugs, maybe you should just stop? You don't have to force yourself. And where are you getting your insects from? They don't sell them anywhere I am shopping.
I'm in Malaysia and we've had a mix of extremely hot weather (so that the jungle is drooping) with afternoons of relieving rain. However, some days the extreme winds keeps the rain clouds from moving out of the mountains or onto the land from the South China Sea (I'm on the east coast) so that the rain cannot cool the land or give the jungle the water it needs. This is only May so I expect temps to get higher in May, June, July. However, it's already extremely hot in the house, on some days, even under a fan. It causes us to sweat while sitting. My Malay husband asked me if I thought Kuala Terengganu would flood in the next 10 years. I said, yes based on the info in your videos. I think it will be sooner than later and we have talked of selling our home but my husband suggested building a houseboat since we live adjacent to the river.😂
Same thing happened here in Jakarta around April. Hot weather since the morning and suddenly it started to rain around 4PM until 7PM
We are gonna facing very long dry and hot season this year I guess 😂
I live in Peru, and can say that the 1997/98 El Niño was catastrophic. Now we are in late autumn, and the weather is unusually warm. Thanks for the clearly explained video 😊
❤I GREW UP IN WARM WEATHER...LOVE THE HEAT...BUT THIS SOUNDS SO EXTREME...❤ HOPEFULLY WE WILL B FIBE.
Same here on the east coast of Australia. We're now well into "winter" and we're still wearing T-shirts during the day, it's very warm for the time of year. I'm not complaining as I'm not a fan of cold weather, but I fully realise this isn't normal.
Last 8 years warmest on record with La Niña, El Niño does not bode well!
You are being lied to. They take the temperatures by airport runways as planes are taking off. Look at Al Gores “An inconvenient truth”
It was so compelling and could scare the life out of anybody who was easily scared.
Didn’t happen though did it?
Fake news.
@@Vile_Entity_3545 What didn't happen? Average temperatures didn't trend upward and extreme weather events didn't become more frequent? Well no those things did happen.
It's been a while since i watched that movie. Was there some very specific prediction, that keep in mind any of us could look up and verify, that hasn't happened and was terribly inaccurate?
@@joemccarthy7120Fake account
@@joemccarthy7120 Stop botting here, mate.
RE: strongest El Nino on record.
It was so hot, my elementary school teacher was able to use her outdoor unheated pool for Christmas in Edmonton Alberta Canada.
Another one of those crazy Canadians diving into ice water? :p
@@madcow3417 it didn't even snow or anything!!! I promise!!! It was like +15%C or something 😭😭😭😭
And what is the temperature there right now? Short term weather variability has nothing to do with climate change which by completely arbitrary definition is defined as the 30 year average of weather. You can hopefully see what complete bullshit this is?
@@JonathanBarnes It's 69F, which is 11 degrees above average. You could have looked this up yourself.
@@JonathanBarnes you missed the point. It’s not stable up here anymore, you could put skates on in December and play on the lake till March. You can’t do that anymore.
Temperature not stable, it has changed here in the north, and the fish and whales are going more north because the plankton can’t survive in warmer temperatures. Come up and see for yourself. Don’t care if it’s man made or not.
Btw, enjoy the millions of refugees migrating onto your border in the coming years
Cheers pal, as a scientifically literate australian who went through 2019/20 east coast bushfires, this is a cheery old video to watch.
All I know is that here in the North Island of New Zealand it hasn't stopped raining since about October 2022. There's some local meteorologists that speculate that the Tongan volcanoe has had an impact due the expelling so much vapor into the atmosphere.
I'm from the Philippines and I've noticed that during an El niño event typhoons tend to form near the central pacific ocean which gives them more chance to intensify and hit Japan and Korean Peninsula. During a La niña event, on the other hand, typhoons tend to form near the Philippines which gives them very little time to intensify because they tend to land immediately on land upon forming.
Think. It’s not illegal yet.
@@colmcillegardner2144 Think. It’s not illegal yet.
Yeah right. Typhoon Rai (odette) hit the Philippines in La niña. Typhoon Olanda hit Philippines in El niño.
Which means nothing. Philippines typhoons are primarily caused by Coriolis (i.e earths rotation). Which is why Northern Philippines get hit more often than the south.
@@valiantvanadium6996 Ya Odette intensified so quickly though right off of Leyte to Pr!n$ point though, I was in Bohol when it happened.
Have you paid attention to the typhoons the past 3 years?
It's worth mentioning that significantly warmer temperatures in the north means far more snowmelt, which means increased flooding around river basins.
Doing some light reading on it, there are so many effects to be spoken about, the video could take hours.
... to say nothing about exacerbating Arctic icecap melting.
@@jeremyhorne52522012 is srill the record this year will probably see the least amount of melt since 2009 and maybe it could even beat 2006 but lets not go nuts your religion of climate change is no different from burning witches 400 plus years ago
Yes and all the Ocean heat wave action (21.6deg ) already , spells doom for glaciers around the globe, and what is especially bad is how this effects the pine island Glacier in Antartica, enough water to raise ocean levels by 7 meters (21 Feet) , all on its little lonesome ! ( if my memory serves me correctly ?), that's why they call it the doomsday Glacier !.
Or above even !!! LOL!
I'm Peruvian and I've lived through these phenomenon a lot across the years. I was born in 2002 so I can't say how strong the 1997-1998 Niño was, but the 2015-2016 one was big enough to call off schools and cause landslides that left thousands without a home not only in the coast but also in the andes.
This summer was also one of the hottest in years, Lima usually doesn't reach temperatures of 33°C or higher, but this summer which kept going for months until late April which is extremely late since Autumn starts in late march. Summer 2023 reached a peak temp of 37°C in some areas in the capital and it was something else. A lot of people suffered from it and to add even more catastrophe, the summer cyclone Yaku was the first of its type in more than 50 years. Lima which is usually a humid but not a rainy city, had 10 times more rain in a week than what it receives in a year, also this winter was expected to be felt more like permanent autumn that a winter as a whole which raises some alarms most certainly.
The ENSO System is nothing to joke around, and this one is going to be harsher than we expect.
❤ ALL THE BEST TO YOU ALL..BE PREPARE.😂😢😅
I live in Guadalajara Mexico and this is by far the hottest summer ever recorded. We are 1550 m high and we are reaching 37 degrees for two weeks already. When in a normal year we would have had refreshing rains already by June. This is scary. It's like 10 degrees above normal.
One of the best descriptions of what's potentially ahead. Wonderful job! Thank you and I agree, you should be nationally recognized and aired!! Well deserved kudos!🙏🙏
I live in Northern Wisconsin, and it is not hot! We got so much snow over the winter that we still have piles of snow melting! Tomorrow is May 1, 2023, and we can expect rain and snow mix for the morning! A high of 44 degrees Fahrenheit! Normally we can start planting gardens by May 15 - 20. This year I recommend waiting until June 1 and I wouldn't be surprised if we still got hit with frost! Maybe it will warm up, someday, but it will just mean a warmer than normal Fall.
As always you bring us great insights that are well researched. Many thanks!
Thanks Glenn. Much appreciated. Sorry its not better news!
Such a British way of presenting calm and so none alarming. Brilliant!
In Northern Wisconsin in USA we just had the worst winter in my lifetime. Not the coldest, but record snowfall, freezing rain, and accreting freezing snow that broke, bent or split countless trees. It was INSANE and there was just more snow yesterday 30 April.
I commend you for the reporting and the hard work you did on this subject. Thanks.
Thank you. I appreciate your feedback :-)
It is a shame it was just dribble.
I've lived in Southern California for almost 60 years and it's easy to see the three-year back and forth in weather patterns since the early 80s and if we went one more year of drought God only knows.
Finally this year as you shown on your map we got plenty of rain and finally some snowpack in the mountains.
Sadly we lost a lot of very old oak trees that just couldn't make it.
We actually got a half an inch of snow in Southern California in one go this year and I'm talking snow in the southern most valleys (the Inland Empire). Don't know if you got any where you live but I bet you probably did.
Unfortunately this means fire season this or next year will be expensive like none other ever recorded.
Yeah, another year of record rainfall in LA/SD means more potholes than you can ever can imagine.
I always worry we don't plant enough trees. I've seen a lot of old growth die and it makes my heart ache
@@dicktracy7393 There are tons of trees being planted. Unless you don't count them because they're new growth and don't have the supernatural powers of old growth, which so many seem to do. I like to imagine them having a fit a thousand years ago as the acorns sprouted in a now ancient wood, screaming about how their pristine ecosystem is being usurped. I'm saddened myself at the disappearing ashes of the east but neither they nor the beetles care about how I feel.
Thank you for the well composed information, even though walking away from this, I was still thinking man that’s depressing. Could be a rough year, everyone be sure to take care of, and help as many people as you can
Our house was about 3 inches from flooding in the 90s. At school, I was 5 and the water was up to my ankles.
Thank you for your always excellent research and presentation!
My pleasure
Great reporting, as always.
Ignores the science to make money.
Well...at least I have the chill running up my spine to keep me cool
Interestingly borh those years you refer to 1997 and 2016 were pretty cool summers in North of Norway. 1997 we had extreme winter with accumulated 9 meters of snow. In 2016 the summer were cold and wet. No warming in this region of the world.
No criticism of the video whatsoever, as always very professionally and clearly presented.
But, it’s very difficult to not be extremely despondent when faced with predictions like these? 😢
What are we doing as a species? What breaks my heart is that other species always pay the prices for this, whether it’s koalas being burnt alive in forest fires, or sea life being simply unable to cope with their environment. Heartbreaking.
We need to move as fast as we did with the ozone layer in the past. Back then we acted as a world community and managed to get things done. But back then there were no special groups that had skin in the game with their interest in the idea of continued ozone depletion. This time however, we have too many people with too much skin the game that want the status quo of using carbon based products so they can continue to make profit. In the end it will be the want of money over life itself that will be our ultimate downfall.
Decolonize 🙏🏽🌿🥺
#landback
the other species? have u not seen the current sitatuation world wide? we are fucking our own self to death, to give u and idea, if u see the chart where he shows the rised ytemperatures on red, one of the zones is Pakistan,.. they are already on a really dreadfull situation, this year wont be different
Three years of heat absorbing La Nina to be released by this El Nino, with a starting point higher than the peak of 2016 - we could be in for a rough ride!
Won't be boring for sure.
We should be for a very rough ride. Writing from Spain, whose southern parts are being devastated by the drought and eco-mismanagement aggravation, I preach almost every day in facebook to climate change denialists demanding repentance... with relevant news about extreme weather and such, including this video.
@MrSpectre287 - Probably the carebear god of warmth went overdrive with his bear hug.
Just saying. It's the problem with letting them reaching their own conclusions: "it's not human made, blah blah, Milankovich cycles, blah, blah, blah, there was one day in 1953 when it was even worst in some place or another, blah blah blah, it's been demonstrated that CO2 and climate change are not related, blah, blah, blah".
In reality is: "don't touch my car, don't you ever dare".
THE END IS NEAR!!! REPENT!!!
@@scottslotterbeck3796 - Repent from being affluent and wasting too many resources, else the end is very very near and that's the problem. Because there's no afterlife but there is legacy.
New York for all its problems has been enjoying a long run of mild weather in all seasons. Any extremes are usually very short lived.
Congrats on reaching 500k subscribers! I've been following you for a while now. You're really helping educate me. Thank you for all you do!
It is going to be one hell of a summer. Fingers crossed we can produce enough food to prevent large scale starvation.
Great to meet you at Fully Charged Live this weekend. I always look forward to your well researched presentations each week.
Every year there's a temperature record, that is no longer a record. The real record will be a year were the temperature doesn't increase.
Congrats on reaching 500K...you've certainly earned it. Keep up the great work!
*Constant LIES!!! Never Comes Through!!!!*
The first 6 months of 2023 in Southern California has been the coldest I can remember in 38 years of living here…
I live in Arizona and this has me a little worried. I point to the Great California flood of 1862 as to why! Prior to that they had been in 20 years of drought! Sound familiar! This last monsoon season and winter was above average wet. Here is the kicker though the thing that really busted the drought back then was the switch to El Nino! Every great flood in California history has occurred during an El Nino.
We now have a situation where in California particularly it's probably going to be a pretty long snow melt season. That means less ground absorption. Throw in heavy rains and we could get into another great flood scenario. That would be bad for Arizona and Nevada also. All three states suffered severe damage during the great flood year. Throw in all the population increases and it could get real ugly if it happens! In 1862 over 100 inches of rain fell in a month!!! The history shows it can happen again!
Myself I am going to prep for in case it happens. That doesn't mean live in fear! It just means making sure in case it happens I have on hand what I need to get through it!
I'm situated in Yuma near the Colorado River. And yourself? Do you reckon flooding can get pretty bad in the desert southwest region?
@@Knifymoloko During extreme weather events like the Great California flood certainly! The town of Gila got washed away then! Read up about your local weather history! If it happened once it can happen again.
@@lisam4503 There were no dams back then. Now we can control the water release.
Thanks, Dave. This should prepare me for what may come during this summer here on the Pacific's trops of cancer.
Excellent! Thank you! 👏
Great summary of what the Enso is.
This is very hard to explain but you managed to convey the essential in a comprehensive and comprehensible way.
Great job.
to quote Private Fraser: "Doomed, we're all doomed". Thanks Dave
Yes, sadly, we are.
Cheers Neil. Sorry its not better news!
Terrible news but excellent coverage.
As someone writing from Fiji, 2016 was a tragic year and one we have still not fully recovered from. TC Winston gave us a national PTSD. Your video is an anxiety inducing heads-up.
Great video. Finally someone presenting facts and creating awareness instead of panic. We need more of this!
It's interesting that the possibility of record breaking temperatures this summer is such chilling news.
Ba dum tsss
History tells us that next year will probably be worse.
*frying news
I wonder what the climate alarmists will say about this? And how might they use it to further their restictive agenda?
Record breaking temperatures??? Utter bullshit- I'll show you ground truthed temperatures from the 1930's that will be WAY higher. You have been lead like a dog on a lead to believe complete and utter nonsense. NONE of the so called recent hot years were anywhere as near as hot as the 1930's. I can get you proof no problem?
Australia has had a continuous rainy season for 3 years. It is usually wet in Summer, but we had a warm winter 3 years in a row. The Indian Ocean vortex, with the Southern Ocean warning, combined with El Nino gave us floods and tempests.
It was La Nina causing the floods, at least in eastern Australia. El Nino tends to cause heatwaves and droughts in Australia. The last one Australia had was during the fires and heatwaves right before Covid hit.
The Tonga eruption was responsible for locking in Eastern Australian weather patterns. The massive amount of water it pushed into the atmosphere was directly observable via satellite forming a barrier that prevented normal movement of air currents.
The dams will never fill again. Tim flannery 2007
Three years predicts the next 1 million years!!! It's OVER!!!
@@brynphillips9957I think the fires and heatwave of 2019 took place in a neutral phase actually. He mentioned in this video that the last strong El Niño pattern was in 2016. Though, it might demonstrate the lasting effect of an El Niño event. Looking forward to the next 3 years of drought and extreme heat.
The greenhouse effect really doesn’t affect me as I don’t have a greenhouse.
I live in a Northern country and no one had air conditioning when I was young - and few did even in the 90's. Now, everyone has it. Back in the 70's, a hot summer day, really hot, we hit 28-30c. Now, we have major humidity and the temp can reach 44-45c in the heat wave. The land bakes. Winter is milder, less snow. We can discuss and disagree on the causes, but the climate HAS CHANGED and very rapidly.
I have lived in SoCal since 1976. Easily the best explanation I have had the pleasure to listen to.
Thank you very much for your feedback. Much appreciated.
so were gonna get cooked this summer huh? haha
el Nino our normal summer heat wave creeps north to the pacific northwest... we will still have our hot August heat waves but we will have typically less multi-day cook outs, due to the lack of hurricanes in the gulf giving us high pressure... instead the the high atmospheric pressure creeps north and the east! Bad news even though they don't get hurricanes the pack ice in the north doesn't form which when Florida experiences their king tide more water not trapped in Ice means more flooding.... the butterfly effect in the greatest sense!
Try actual science.
@@hoopslaa5235 cooking, in the other hand, will be easy. Just put your pot outside on a black metal sheet, and things will be done in an hour, nice n easy. Though, you might want salads, this summer 😀
As always you did justice to the topic. Very Informative.
Bullshit it's media indoctrination and lies.
Thank you. Much appreciated :-)
I put as always a "thumbs up", not for seriousness of the information, but for the presentation. Thank you for doing these videos!
Thank you, Richard. El Nino is so complex, and a really good stab at an explanation! And some of the results of the current event could be totally unexpected ones.
It is WAY more complex than what is presented here and the causes and triggers are basically unknown. All we have are hand-waving explanations about water "piling up" and pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo to make it sound like "settled science".
@@tuberroot1112 I agree for the most part. That said, it appears it is getting warmer faster than scientists thought. I'm not convinced, the reason given makes any sense, but I don't believe for a minute human beings can stop it. Also, not convinced human beings caused it. I am convinced it is happening.
@@patrickvanmeter2922 Thanks Patrick. I'm not sure where the "faster than" comes from. The average warming of all climate models since 1990 is about twice the actual measured rate. IIRC, only one run of one of the models gets it roughly right. Logically we should be paying more attention to that model and looking at why it works better. Sadly IPCC wants a wide range of results so that it can maintain the "may be as much as ..." narrative , despite observations disproving it. Once we realise that the rate of warming is in the more beneficial than harmful range we can stop arguing about what causes it.
@@tuberroot1112 I meant they continue to change their predictions. I hope you're correct about rate of warming is more beneficial than harmful. I think it depends on your location. It seems to me the oceans temperatures are unable to recover due to the intense warming. We're about to find out. I live in Baja and the water in the Sea of Cortez is warmer than my shower is.
@@patrickvanmeter2922 Yes, location matters. "global" warming affects winter minima more that summer maxima. In general something like 5x more people die of cold each year than die of heat. On the basis that all lives have equal value, mild warming is net positive. 4-6deg C incr on the mean would be a problem. But that kind of projection is not tenable scientifically.
If a MEGA El Niño brings rain back to Chile for a couple of years it would be great to end the worst mega drought in a millenium... the problem WILL obviously be that usually el niño brings stupid fast downpours of water that are literal atmospheric tsunamis, and flash flood will become an issue, a big one.
It's difficult when the Andes rise steep from the ocean and squeeze all the moisture out of the air.
Narrow, with little coastal plain there's little room for that rain to fall.
I live in the southern united states and I thank you for this video. You didn't present it as a alarm bell situation like most news channels tend to do (which is part of the problem imo) and you informed everything very calmly and factually. While I don't understand some of the lingo, it still helped me understand what is going on for the most part. I was mainly curious what it would do to temperatures for the south of the US and I thought it would make things a lot warmer here, but I'm glad to see that is not the case.
Its funny, people always think it won't happen to them until it does. "Oh my house wont be hit by flooding." "Oh the tornadoes are a town over, its fine." Until they've lost everything and have to wade through the hellscape that is our insurance system to get back even part of what you lost... My point is, I'd rather be informed, no matter how "scary / alarming" the news sounds, and be mindful of what that means for me and my own.
I also live in the Southern US. With a BIG El Nino like this one - Its the wetter part that will be a problem. Its going to be *alot* wetter. When the low pressure of the Pacific meets the high pressure of the top of north america, that band (where the southern US is) between them is a massive storm generator. The chaos of the two types of pressure meeting creates storms, and we're all under the gun for it.
The most chilling part, for me, is that the last La Nina lasted 3 YEARS. Usually 1 season of El Nino is devastating enough in regards to storms and droughts... How would we deal with 3 YEARS of it?
I mean it certainly not something you should just brush off
@@alexandergustafson599 Well it's not like I can control anything... Just can only prepare.
I just came across your video and found it very informative yet easy to listen to. I am very interested on the effects this might have, I moved to Ecuador a couple of years ago and already noticed the increased temperatures in the day time and far more electrical storms and torrential rain here. There has been a few incidents of flooding and terrible mudslides in some areas. I can’t help but wonder how things will develop from now. I am very fortunate to be high enough not to be affected directly by floods nor in a landslide threatened zone.
I will make sure to keep an eye out for your updates on the weather situation.
Thank you 😊
And most of the places effected by the last strong El nino are no more prepared now then they were then. 😥
I expect a strong El Nino to convert a lot of doubters and drive the corporatocracy completely insane.
The global warming pause will come back after each el nino, it's more worrying that we are having such a long period of no global warming, first was in 1998-2013 and now 2016-2023, damn cold world even the date 30th of april has cooled 3c in the last 23 years.
Some day the El Nino will never leave as we keep increasing our emissions every year and there is still no practical way to remove them. Hope has burned off, embrace Extinction.
Just wanted to say hello and sorry I missed you at the Farnborough show on Friday! Next year I'll stay all 3 days! 😂
Had a great time... Smiled so much that my face still hurts.
Good info, but you've forgotten to mention Australia. We have been beaten to death by these weather systems over the past couple of decades so would be good to hear how the El Nino will affect us next summer. Appreciate the info you did provide though...
A great overview of the historical facts together with the current sea temps and the predicted weather trends this year. Quite a lot for a Monday morning! Thanks for the video.
For TLDR, summary: We are screwed
What’s great video, you sir need a stand ovation. Well done on your presentation thoroughly enjoyable
Great info update. The 3d software you use works really well. Thumbs up👍
The worst part about ever worsening climate is the realization that the weird miserable weather we are having this year will be some of the nicest weather we will have in the coming decades. We want a better future for our children. We can't continue messing things up.
THEN STOP HAVING CHILDREN lolz like seriously
@@SpeedyCorky Who is going to wipe your butt when you are too old and frail to do it yourself? Or shelve the supermarket, or staff the fire department, or a million other things. As a species we can't simply stop having children.
One thing not mentioned was the global temperature patterns associated with the last two big El Niño events. In bothe 1997/8 and 2015/6 the temperature rose significantly in the event but didn’t drop off much, even during a La Niña. It was basically a new plateau. I suspect this one will take us up to a new level again.
I remember that, wanted to travel to Eugene at turn off century, to pick up one those great Bike Friday folding bikes. But they said wait a bit into things cool down, which it didn't.
Had the bike delivered at home instead :)
I'm still wondering if our existence has made any impact, or how much. I know we have polluted the world terribly, but I'm skeptical that the Earth is in danger "because" of us.
@@thatswhatisaidCA As they say, the earth will be fine. It's us and other existing life forms that are in trouble.
@@thatswhatisaidCAthe earth isn't in danger because of us, quite the contrary...
Thanks for explaining it in a way that is perfectly easy for a meteorologist to grab
Very calmly, lucidly and succinctly explained. Thank you. We all need to be prepared for a bumpy ride, weatherwise, this year.
Thanks Dave. Here in Panama we're experiencing very different weather from the last few years. Still extremely dry when we would normally expect the first heavy downpour of rainy season at least a week ago and the forcast is for this to continue for perhaps another month. Drinking water supply is starting to be affected and of course the canal, which depends on rainfall to keep the water level high enough to allow the world's shipping to pass, is also feeling the pressure.
And so you think the Weather Patterns stay the same forever..........The Earths Climate has Changed continually ever since the Good Lord created it !!
@@bobmitchell8012 During the whole six thousand years?
@@bobmitchell8012 humans are so irrational,they are always falling for doomsday cults 😂. Paying the government to clean the air of plant food,hilarious 😂😂😂😂😂
👍
If the dry spell continues ships could sail the Northwest passage as the ice will thaw with the jet stream further North.
Weirdly the effect of that triple dip where I live (Manitoba Canada) was that the jet stream got way off course and we didn't crack the zero C mark for the entire month of March. That hasn't happened in over 130 years. we had a brutally cold, long winter.
Do you mean 130 years ago, long before our polluting carbon dioxide reached its current crisis levels, there was a climate crisis that has taken 130 years more polluting carbon dioxide to match?
Not too many cars, jets, or patio heaters 130 years ago
Nutting to see here for deniers, move on people, get on yer gas guzzlers and go !
@@reuireuiop0 i am happy to do so, just for your personal entertainment😄 have your already removed all electrical installations from your house to really celebrate carbon neutrality? I give you a hint what you have forgotten: that box called a PC!
the sophistication of graphic visualizations is extraordinary now.
Keep up the good work - Good reporting and rational approach
These presentations are fantastic. It may sound callous, but perhaps a year of catastrophic events driven by El Niño is just what we need. Who knows, if it’s bad enough it may convince humanity to take serious steps to avert an even more catastrophic series of events. Tough love.
Hope its not too late though. Getting to that point by the sounds of it.
Lol, optimism, how cute
@@elsonck2523 Yes it is too late. We need to cull the population. Top down.
@@faarsight I believe it is equally as important to debate/counter-argue/educate such comments as it is with climate denier comments
This attitude is subjective because you are not psychic, you cannot know the future, you have no idea if humanity is going to reach a positive compounding feedback loop to make enough of a positive change in time, or not.
If i am correct, to have closed your mind off from the possibility of positive change is a cognitive distortion that encourages inaction, often recognisable within the habit of procrastination, which is a form of self-sabotage.
(COGNITIVE DOSTORTIONS; All or nothing thinking, Over generalisation, Mental filtering, Disqualifying the positive, Jumping to conclusions, Maximising/minimising, Catastrophising, Emotional reasoning, Personalisation, Blaming)
You have made a judgement, based on information you have CHOSEN to believe is correct and allowed it to depress and kill your hope. I DO understand this, i have been there and it's THE most unhelpful way of thinking, if you want positive changes to occur.
Hopefully, you are simply experiencing one of the 7 stages of grief and you will pass through them all. I am glad someone mentioned this to me as i found it a helpful reminder, having previously only associated the 7 stages with a loved one's death.
You have phrased your words in a similar vein to how a bully would, to induce shame (in those who do still hold out some hope). Was that your intention? Or were you trying to be witty? Possibly boosting yourself by feeling superior, witty &/or wiser for a few minutes?
I say this to educate. Words have power, words influence other's and our own actions/inactions/belief structures.
Arguably, because of the way you phrased your words (shame inducing) they are thus advocating for a world-view which promotes inaction, pushing for an even worse future than if you'd said 'i wish i shared/i do not have even this small amount of hope'
Instead, easily influenced people, (including teens and children) read these types of comments all the time and it stops them from making a positive difference in the world. They then stop others, so on and so forth. The butterfly effect springs to mind.
Although not your responsibility, you maybe unaware of the new and booming phenomena of eco-related suicides and eco-anxiety to the degree that therapy and medication is required.
I hope you read my message in the vein intended
No we don't. We had that just before the pandemic. Here in Australia, the fires burned a LOT of wildlife. Yes, we're a land of droughts and flooding rains, but we'd like a year or two without either. A bit of variety would be nice.
I have always been fascinated by the weather, even when I was a kid. I love thunderstorms greatly, and keep close tabs on what is forecast by The Farmer’s Almanac and NOAA. some of our weather has been very much affected. We live about 40 miles west of Manhattan and our weather comes directly from the west in the summer (mostly) and from north northwest in the winter. Not lately, however.
Hurricane Gloria came up here when I was a kid (I’m 55 now, so this was in the 1980s). Since then, we had no hurricanes until 1999, when Hurricane Floyd did incredible damage to northern New Jersey. But the biggest were Tropical Storm Irene (2011), Hurricane Sandy (2012 - we were lucky- we lost power for 12 seconds. But the Foodtown across the street and friends of ours were unable to live in their house, the store was closed for many weeks, and others we knew deserted their destroyed homes. Lake Hiawatha has a history of flooding), remnants of Hurricane Patricia (2015), remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy and Hurricane Harvey (2017), Tropical Storm Isaias and Post-tropical Storm Zeta (2020), and Hurricane Ida and Tropical Storm Fred (2021). Fred was notable as that storm knocked out out power for two and a half days in August. My husband went to work, I stayed at my father’s house. Our house was hot as blazes and everything in the refrigerator and freezer was thrown out. Now, many, many storms have remnants or full hurricanes that make it up here, but typically affect the coastal areas. But we are far inland and are not affected by them. Last year, one made it to Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island suffered incredible damage.
The Atlantic Ocean this far north usually does not warm enough in the typically high-intensity months for big storms. But in October, the ocean water can be quite warm - in the sixties. By then, the air is usually in the sixties, so it is too cold to swim in, but is workable to keep big storms ticking along nicely. Even so, few make it inland, but we’ve gone to very, very few to far too many. An El Niño will bring some change after three years of La Niña, so it will be interesting to see what’s coming.
I do well recall the huge El Niño of 1997! It’s funny that others might, as well. I don’t know many people who follow the weather with the interest I do. Thank you!
Nice comment
Another enlightening podcast. I learned many new things I was not previously aware of, with regard to
heating of the ocean layers, and it’s devastating
impact on global weather patterns and anomalies.
I hope that those making government policies
are as well informed about this as you clearly
seem to be, but I have my doubts about that!
Your podcasts are providing the viewing audience
with an important resource, about these
critical issues. Keep up the good work!
Congrats on passing the 500k subscribers !
oh super, 2022 in the UK we had a summer that matched the predicted 2050 forecasts, I'm not looking forward what this year brings.
As an Australian can we just keep La Niña, I’ve been enjoying the wet weather
Must be better than smelling burning koala fur and hearing them scream as they burn.
Not me.. we had a record flood!!
@@johnshaw8327 we build way too much housing in flood zones
The worst El Nino ive ever exerienced was when i lived near Ft Lauderdale in 2005. After Katrina (Louisiana has gone down in history as suffering a nightmare after that storm) i was without power for a week or so, 12,000$ and of pocket house damage. Not long after hurricane Wilma blew through. No power after that for over 10-14 days, boil water alert for weeks….. no land line, cell service, or power. It gave us a feel for armageddon!
Great video, thanks! Could you please do more updates on this as we head towards summer and have more data? ❤
I applaud your ability to present these scientific facts without conveying panic, Dave. Sorry to say, however, that they do invoke a growing sense of panic in me. 😦
Why? Droughts happen everywhere and have been since the beggining of time. Instead of crying about stuff we cant control how about fix what we can? We have so much technology nowadays to where less people suffer from climate problems then ever in history. So since that has improved dramactically everyone acts like thats a bad thing. More people still die from the cold then the heat each year. If are planet were to get colder it would be much worse. Also, he mentioned more wildfires from the heat? The heat has very little to do with fires. Us humans put fires out much faster then ever before so it creates more fuel. Also we have built in places that never had people before and it creates more problems. With power lines and other things humans do to make fires.
Well it should. It's terrifying
@@atticustay1 at least people could be prewarned now they might be able to mitigate some of the effects
The more of us little people are in panic, the less politicians will be able to ignore this.
Panic is a natural and rational response given what we are all shortly about to experience as the interrupted weather patterns greatly disrupt crop production.
Apparently it's a 60% chance of El Niño for may-june-july and 80% for august-september-october.
It's a prediction like long term weather otherwise known as gambling or a guess.
Where I lived it hit a record high 40+ Celsius last summer for over a week, can't imagine what's gonna happen this year.
Every area is affected differently by these weather patterns. Where I live, the last few years have had much milder winters and summers - rarely getting cold enough for snow and rarely unbearably hot. This change means we're probably going to have some rougher winter and summer weather!
Where do you live?
Very well explanation of difficult interrelated concepts. I have recently sat through lectures on these topics and must say you did a great job keeping it concise and relating back to everyday people. I would have liked to see the SAM (southern annular mode), despite being only south hemisphere located, the el-nino/la nina do interact with this system from an entropic perspective (called teleconnections), which in turn change the local climates (some times makes them colder as this 'polar vortex' is sucked northwards (equal opposite reaction to the northward northern hemisphere movement you showed in the video!) My professor who is an IPCC author (James Renwick) said that if the ocean hadn't absorb the majority of the energy from global warming, atmosphere would already be 50degree hotter! The key tipping points are the west Antarctic icea sheet ~+50m sea level rise (not floating ice, so does raise sealevels), the greenland sheet ~25m and the key one, the ocean's ability to absorb heat is reducing and as a concequece of being hotter, can hold less oxygen!!
Did you know the Earth has cooled over the last five years???
So in short
Everything we've experienced so far was easy mode
And now we'll see the worst of it
How inspiring
No no, there is also next decade...
Don't worry it is gonna be a lot worse!
I got some inspirations:
1. Techno-optimist geoengineering: rise Polynesia into a new continent and stop El Niño from ever happening again.
2. Warmonger lebensraum survivalist: let's conquer Greenland now, it's prime real state once all the ice is gone.
3. Realistic: let's replace all fossil fuels by solar+hydrogen this very year, we will be back to normal before 2040 if we do so.
Which would you prefer?
Love this, the gent has the same friendly voice of the weather folk on the 80s BBC weather after the news.
Fascinating 😎
I'm really glad I came across this, the events happening here in NZ have been ridiculously bad, some elderly say it's the worst they've ever witnessed.
I appreciate your explanations, it gives good insight. Wish our Metservice gave better explanations like this.
Re metservice try weather watch nz
I really enjoy your channel. Thanks for the excellent content you provide. This was one of the concise and clearest explanations that I have seen on ENSO. I have followed the effects of El Niño since the early ‘80’s. I have lived my entire life in Southern California and know that a very strong El Niño means excellent fishing off the coast, lots of rain and now lots of flowers for my bees. Thanks again for this great coverage. I am glad I discovered your channel this past year.
The fact that it's already been 15 to 30 degrees F above normal in my neck of the woods for most of this year so far, and it normally pushes into "dangerous for humans" in July & August without extreme events...
😮What neck of the woods is that Mate?
@@RobinCrusoe1952 Near Washington D.C.
Funny enough, right around the time I wrote my comment, temps fell back to seasonally appropriate levels, or close to. But we had a VERY unseasonably warm Dec-April.
Still makes me very nervous about high summer, which is brutal here in a normal year.
@@matthewconstantine5015 Thanks for replying.
Here, West Yorkshire, its been a cold, miserable spring. Here in the UK every sunny day is a bonus.
@@RobinCrusoe1952 If you don't want rain, send it to WV10 - 20 mins from Brum ☔️☔️☔️☔️☔️
Thanks! You do a great job with relevant info
Thanks for your support Curt. Much appreciated 😀👍
So cold means bad weather and warm means good weather. History concurs!
I live in Northern California in the Sierra Foothills... Last summer the town I live in hit just over 46° C... that's 115°F. It was a little bit scary. I'm going to go work on my swamp cooler now... Damn it.
You're already dead, you just don't know it.
@@scottslotterbeck3796 i don't know about myself... but there are definitely some people around here that seem that way... parts of them any way, and they do know it... I think that's part of a problem.
Think of it this way- the fires took a lot of people's lives... Then the mandatory FEMA "cleanup" took a lot of people's souls. Absolute violation. Theft and destruction of anything that remained. Heavy equipment, cargo containers full of tools, boats, cars, buildings... Even those untouched by the fires- if you were not there to stop them, they literally stole it all. To the ground.
It was absolutely bizarre, infuriating, frustrating, spooky... Scary and twisted. Under the circumstances it would be fair to say quite cruel. In a way it was worse than the fire. I do not exaggerate or use hyperbole... It was unfucking real, but all too real, and drawn-out over weeks and months
peace.
I hope we gonna have a break in Quebec this summer. Weather have been crazy hot the last couple summers. Having a somewhat colder summer than usual with a normal fall would be really welcome.
No. The Earth will catch on fire this year.
@@scottslotterbeck3796 fool!
Thank You, very interesting and you did a great job relating the information.
Gratz on 500.000 Dave!
1 minute thing and already thinking "OH BOI"
Id love to see you produce an episode covering the numerous weather modification programs being conducted around the our Planet.
There’s only one “weather modification program” on this planet and it’s called greenhouse gases that each and every one of us in the developed world has contributed to.
THOSE CHEM TRAILS ARE KILLING UUUSSSS!!!!
Yes that would be helpful, as many don’t know about it.