EV sales jumped in December to 33% of total new car sales. Here's why I think there's trouble ahead
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- Опубліковано 11 січ 2023
- Electric car sales in the UK jumped in December 2022 to 33% of the total car sales. In this video I explain why this happened and why I think this rate of increase is unsustainable.
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We need more videos like this, super useful and backed up by real data and examples. Keep going Harry's garage, I hope more social media producers can project the same honesty and solid advice. Maybe more people will start to wake up to the reality of this situation.
I've no particular problem with electric cars (there are clearly pros and cons, environmentally), but I do have a problem with the way they're being introduced in the UK: less wealthy people are being shafted. Not only are they going to have to pay more for their vehicles, but those with less money are less likely to have driveways where you can charge your car. So, they pay more for charging, plus they have to spend an hour or more a week charging their car. Do you have that free time?
Forcing us into electric cars is only reasonable if the government invests so that there are chargers on the street outside flats so that these people can charge their car overnight too. But hey, that's capitalism: the wealthy will be fine and that's all that matters. Regular people can just lose even more of their time - as if we don’t spend enough time working.
Plus, if you buy a new car every - let's say - 50,000 miles, you're not being environmentally friendly, no matter how it is powered. The biggest problem - as with all consumption - is buying new things.
I know it's an alien concept to many - because we’re incessantly told that this is not the case - but the government actually exists to serve us, not to tell us what to do.
@@julianevans9548
Totally agree with that.
@@julianevans9548 very well said. Why don’t the car makers work on kits to convert cars we have now before forcing us to purchase new ones, I don’t particularly like the “life span” of the battery either might be fine where I am in a stable environment but what about cold places? Extreme heat? My last car I bought new in 2007 and traded it on a family car in 2021 and it had done 220,000kms and I only had to put a radiator and front struts in it other then serving. I particularly like how they’re forcing us into it but not one of the governments is standing up and asking any questions about how are the materials being obtained. EVs are becoming as you said a wealthy persons deal.
No one's forcing me. If you feel pressured then I'm sorry but more fool you. A car is a big investment for anyone. I've never ever bought a "new to me" car without doing my homework and being what I would call an intelligent customer. Why anyone would not take a keen interest beforehand beats me. 🤔No car salesman sells me a car he thinks I should buy. In fact I've pulled salesmen up on factually incorrect information in the past.
I couldn't agree more with Harry on this. There should be more videos like this educating the population. As for the diesel BMW 3 series; 320d all day long for me. Keep it simple, keep the weight down and resist the 4wd option, less unsprung weight on the front axle and you don't really need it anyway.
@@mikeroz6549 with the ulez changes and widening of where it applies, that is forcing me to change my particularly fine (but old) diesel to avoid incurring fines, so I am being forced to change (perhaps not to electric but it doesn’t make you think if I have to make a change then shall I make the jump to electric now given the direction of travel and to avoid having to change my “new” diesel car again should the ulez requirements change )
Couldn’t agree more. Drive less. Buying or leasing new cars every 3 years is horrendous for the environment when you look at the CO2 output of manufacturing a new vehicle.
Agreed. I'll keep my classics and a late diesel Range Range. EVs need to move on a generation or two. We should be allowed freedom of choice anyway. When EVs are better. People will buy them. I hate the whole big state rules, typical of the EU. Got knows why we're still following them.
Could you please provide me with some information on why this would be factually right.
Depending on the source a car will generate between 10-15 percent of the life time CO2 being built. The rest will be during operation. That means only a small reduction in fuel consumption will offset the production emissions.
Furthermore, any new car added to a system will end up replacing a old car in the bottom of the car hierarchy. So when someone buys a new 95 gram CO2 car a 280 gram car will most likely end up at the scrapyard.
@@arvidjohansson3120 Google the report Volvo released comparing electric and ICE cars. The electric car doesn’t become green till after 70,000 miles compared to petrol.
Its combined with greedy EU politicians + overlay exaggerated climate change + trying to hide EV dirty impact on environment.
EV definitely has way more CO2 than hybrid. EV are like electronics you have to replace battery or buy new car every 3-5 years because lithium battery can deteriorate much quicker than combustion engines. And EV manufacturing process is way more polluting
why, so they all get crushed after 3 years or filter through the used market removing ICE cars from the road eventually?
Watching a Harrys Garage video is like spending an evening with Grandad- absolute comfort. 😊 But he’s not racist, doesn’t read the Daily Mail and knows what he’s talking about.
I've had 13 years in the motor industry (94- 07) having worked for Mercedes, Fiat and Toyota (had to work on residual values for the first ever Prius...which was 'interesting'!) ; am familiar with the regulatory (and volume) pressures on manufacturers and the SMMT stats - and this video is spot on, Harry. The only thing not mentioned is synthetic fuels which we know are way too expensive at the moment, but if you have any information about further developments (as well carrying on updates about solid state batteries) that would be interesting too. After a recent tour of Gaydon, Aston Martin claim to be the most efficient auto maker on the planet - because of how long their cars have lasted since Aston Martin existed with I think only 5% having gone to the scrap yard - which backs up your point about the BMW M3 or similar. Longevity surely needs to be part of the solution.
If synthetic fuels can be part of the solution - then everyone can hold on to their cars for longer - and surely - that is part of the answer?
The challenge is we have psychologically got 'used' to upgrading - due partly to built in obsolescence in eg white goods and the constant marketing barrage to upgrade your phone; iPad; laptop; telly etc. Gone are our parents' days where they used to darn socks to keep them lasting longer. It has (we have) become a 'throwaway' society, and then we look behind us and wonder why we have such issues to resolve.
Congrats on the measures you have taken, and are taking, regarding sustainability. The calm, balanced, mixture of sensible solutions approach seems way more sensible than the somewhat polarised; binary 'you must buy electric' approach, which encourages people to go into one of two (pro or anti EV) camps, rather than realising that a blend is most likely best.
Ironic about lithium prices, but we'll leave that there.
Thank you for an interesting piece based on facts. Next thing - speak to your MP, Harry, and get this information up there and out there! ;)
Harry had a video about synthetic fuels he uses it for his older cars
Thank you for your interesting comment, I appreciate you taking the time to write it here.
agree - electric owner - experience good and bad ....
Completely agree. It would be amazing if you got a tax write-off for keeping a car longer at the end of finance or motor plan versus buying a new one😂
Don't worry, you vill own nuzing and you vill be happy
@@WiseGuy02 you will own a zonda 760 and you will be happy
Dream on 😂
The best summary of the challenges we all face with electrification, neatly wrapped up in 15 minutes. Thanks Harry
When something cannot be questioned you know the masses will suffer but NOT the elites. Welcome to the 2020's
In a nutshell please please Stop buying expensive electric ⚡️ car made with dirty energy instead just keep your current car 🚙 on the road with correct and reasonable maintenance in this process you are also supporting your local businesses and global environment.
Worthless pander.
@@ts6070 I think the problem is the current big debate is gas vs electric. The conversation should change to drive what one has. Going out and buying a brand new gas or electric car every few years isn’t good for the environment and not good for one’s wallet.
Great video. A lot of sense spoken by Harry.
Our politicians are letting us down so badly by pursuing headlines, yet without putting any thought to the real impact of what they are going and the changes they are forcing on us.
I love driving and maintaining older cars from the 80's and 90's for daily use. The trick is to buy the best example you can find, and maintain it. Once sorted - very economical to run...and you've got something a bit special that brings a smile to your and others faces.
Except for the occasions when you'll drive into a Clean Air Charging zone......then you may not feel like smiling.
@@Brian-om2hh yep. because briefly inconveniencing the very small percentage of people on the road who drive a car from before 2005 is going to make ALL the difference to pollution levels
This is true. A classic car, or a car that is a throwback still doing its thing, will always bring a smile to our faces. Keep up the good work (literally).
Really enjoyed this style of video Harry, I think it compliments your regular content very well, keep them coming
Just do the opposite of what the politicians & MSM say…& u won’t go far wrong 👍
Get a big V8👍😎
Now that's a very smart comment! 👍🏻😎
Lots of Ev's will be on the SH market soon as their owners fell for the 'Safe & Effective' sales pitch! 😕
Great video as always. I really enjoy your articulate, intelligent and thoughtful videos. Almost as much as the mad road tests and trips!
Good honest, well thought out and well researched content; it's why I love Harry's videos.
I absolutely adore your road trip videos - but this is one of the best videos you’ve done and you hit the nail on the head in so many areas. Bravo
Totally agree with your point regarding insulation of new build homes, much cheaper to do it at the time of build rather than retrofitted later. Same goes for solar and storage batteries.
Isn't that nice.
Suggest you read the 2022 edition of building regulations part L
New build homes are well insulated - but carbon reduction is urgent, and the vast majority of the homes that will exist in 2050 already exist today, so new build is only a small part of the problem. And if you adopt Scandinavian insulation levels in the UK you end up with overheating in summer, which is counter productive because people then start buying air-conditioners...
@@stuartbrown9439 why would you overheat if you keep the heat out? Insulation works both ways.
@@jerehada Took the words out of my head! Doors and windows open with air circulation in the evening, doors and windows closed during the hottest hours of the day, rinse repeat. If the night become too hot, then cool off with A/C. It's a big sadness I have that if only homes where just a bit more thought out in positioning and design perhaps we'd all get on with far less?
Excellent video, Harry. Well researched - more of these please. It also asked tough questions, such as the crazy tax benefits of these vehicles.
Well done for speaking out Harry. Appreciate it.
The voice of reason! Thank you Harry!! A question.....those December sales......are they really sales, or are they registrations? If they are sales, how are manufacturers suddenly able to get the public to buy in the last month of the year, but struggle for the other 11? It sounds like it would actually be cheaper for a manufacturer to buy their own cars to get the sales figures up, than pay the massive EU fines!!!
I was wondering the same thing. Who is buying these "December" vehicles?
My guess would be a large discounted fleet sale to certain fleet customers. Look at the number of used low mileage BMW selling outlets there are on every street corner.
@@tckcumming An example: Tesla were offering a few grand off and 6000m of free supercharging on a Y - if you were thinking of buying a good deal
Well said..
@@tckcumming Fleet sales, lease trade ups, and employee lot/test vehicles for dealerships. At least that's how it was 15 years ago at the dealership I worked at. Dealerships still had to make quotas then so they'd get the special allotment prices and just general allotment of special vehicles such as Corvette Z06, Cadillac STS, etc.
Harry, you got that spot on!👏
This is probably the most honest review of the situation we’re in with EVs at this moment in time in the UK.
We’re being ‘persuaded’ to buy EVs when the infrastructure just isn’t there to cope with it in the UK.
(Ill be sticking with hybrid and diesels for the time being.)
'Forced'?? You could buy a diesel tomorrow and run it for years to come you drama queen
@@Matty_D my mate went to the dealer to buy a diesel, they held a gun to his head and forced him to buy an EV
@@mbal4052 My brothers cousin tried buying a 4 cylinder gas saver and was locked in a room with Miley Cyrus turned up to 11. Forced him to sign for the EV and the extended warranty.
@@Matty_D and how much would it cost to drive into londons ulez … and do you really think there will not be more punitive measures against ice vehicles around the world.
@@Fireballsocal My uncle's friend's cousin's wife went to buy a 1L 3cyl, she was forced to watch TikTok videos until she signed for an EV.
Poor lady didn't even last a minute.
Absolutely brilliant Harry (as always!). Your videos are always an enjoyable and informative watch - honest opinions that everyone can understand and appreciate. Keep up the great work - we could do with you running the country at the moment!
Great format. We need more big picture holistic discussions like this. Right or wrong, debating the many and varied interrelated issues will help us get to the desired state faster and more effectively. Please keep up the great work.
That was brilliant, Harry! The passion, the info and the felling it was all true is exactly what we need. Well done!
Love these more industry news related videos. So interesting to get info from someone who really understands the industry and has well thought out and researched information to share. Absolutely fantastic
I'm an huge EV advocate (I own a TM3 P) and you're absolutely right about the efficiency. It's almost more important than range. We NEED efficient EVs with sleek aeordynamics, good power electronics (SiC based for better efficiency like Tesla) and very efficient powertrains.
This SUV trend must stop with EVs. We need estates and saloons. These cars NEEDs the smallest frontal area possible.
The BMW iX, Tesla X, Hummer EV or Rivian R1T, these 3 tons EVs are the exact things to avoid.
I really hope this series gets a high number of views as it’s super important we get unbiased information on the “push” to electric cars and as someone who currently considering changing my perfectly fine diesel (due to the ulez expansion) this video was extremely informative, thank you. I look forward to watching the next one in this series.
it is a sign of demand for EVs, that gets revealed the moment prices become more affordable. People are not buying EVs just because there is nothing else in the showroom
I'm in the fortunate position of being able to avoid going into any ULEZ zones, and thus not spending within them. One can only hope that enough people in my position do so, and the businesses that lose out campaign for the removal of the ULEZ zones.
ULEZ is one thing but the main benefit of electric cars do not take up any space on road! That is why you don't have to pay the congestion charge! What when we are nearly all electric? Will there be a No Emission Zone? Will the congestion zone be abolished?
@@USUG0 People are buying EVs because they are cheaper to run than paying for fuel and 'I smoked that Lambo, bro!' factor with some EV.
Great video and I feel your rant. I've found my head in my hands on this very topic many times. That said, ANOTHER aspect of this issue is the labor force used to mine the materials for all these batteries. A very dark business that the media and our governments are not speaking of. Thanks for sharing this topic. Best -
Congolese Cobalt mining is a shameful reality, but it's worth pointing out 2 points:
-Not all EV batteries use Cobalt (standard range Tesla model 3 and Y have none and they are roughly 1/2 of total Tesla production).
-The quantity of cobalt used in a 500kg luxury EV battery pack is less than 25 kg and it is 100% recyclable at end of life.
@@richhr89 your recyclability numbers are incorrect, not to mention that we are at the very front end of the EV battery lifecycle.
Once these cells are no longer fit for automotive use they don't go into the junkyard. They move into applications where their power density are far less critical like grid tied storage.
We shouldn't even be considering activity recycling these cells today when they've got another 10 or 15 year life ahead of them.
Every part of capitalism is a dark business
Edward, if you do a bit of research, you'd quickly discover that the largest users of mined minerals on the planet are the oil industry......
@@otm646 Of which good examples might be the huge sports stadium in Utrecht in Holland, powered by 200 old Nissan Leaf batteries, charged via solar. Or the wind farm in Wales, which uses a considerable number of older BMW i3 batteries for energy storage..... As you rightly state, not all older EV batteries will need to be recycled. They may no longer be capable of use in a vehicle, but are more than adequate for energy storage.....
Very informative, Harry. Thank you. This kind of proper look behind what really drives the sales numbers just doesn't get reported in the mainstream media!
Great vid Harry and really interesting points. I especially like the industry and legislation information used to back up your thoughts and arguments.
Thank goodness,someone with real authority has spoken up about this ridiculous situation.
Long journeys=Diesel/Petrol
Short journeys=Non I/C power.
Respect to you Harry's Garage.
Thank you Harry for, yet again, providing an educated voice of reason into this, it is balanced and informative.
Cobalt and lithium costs are rising for sure. I've got a 10 year old DS3 and don't do much mileage currently. It's still fine, no rust and the THP155 still has a nice buzz. Am I being more environmentally friendly by keeping my old car for longer? I can't consider an EV, because I don't want to spend £25K+ for a crap EV, let alone £40k+ for a semi-decent one.
By far the most EF thing to do is not to buy a new car.
No but you can buy a top hybrid which will still be on the streets for a long time.
@@giuistefanjr72 doesn't have to be even new ~2-3year and if it's a taxi/uber/lyft (battery continuosly "regened") even 5+
The most environmentally friendly thing, after not driving at all, is to stick it out with the car you have (as long as it has reasonable fuel economy) or buy a used hybrid if your existing car doesn't do what you need it to.
Volvo calculated that full electric is only better for the environment after the vehicle has 150k miles
Great video Harry. I owned an EV for five months in Canada. I can tell you the tech is not ready for our cold winter weather.
I think you pretty much nailed it. The greenest solution would be to reduce overall passenger vehicle miles and simultaneously incentivise prolonged car ownership and most of all lighter new vehicles.
I live outside Charlotte North Carolina. A few weeks back we had a run of very very cold weather (at or below 0 degrees F). The grid required rolling blackouts to keep from losing electricity to a wider extent. How on earth does the government think the grid could handle a significant percentage of the population having electric vehicles. The infrastructure is nowhere near ready to handle even 5% of the population having electric vehicles.
Harry, please keep doing videos on this subject. Very interesting to hear information on this part of the industry.
All valid points and I totally agree that buying used is the best way to protect the environment. Just want to add: the dirtiness of EV depends on the power mix of that area, but also heavily, heavily depends on when do you charge the car. In the VW ID. series there is a mode called "charge to departure time". I set it to 6am. So the car usually starts charging after 2am which is when wind energy is contributing heavily into the grid and no enough people are using them. UK has an abundance of off-shore wind farms and a lot more planned. Charge you car after midnight and you can dramatically reduce the dirtiness.
Couldn’t agree more. We’ve had a Skoda Enyaq for 6 months, brilliant for local drives under 50 miles but trip from Kent to North Wales was super stressful and we needed 3 stops which meant the journey took a whole day. Also, service station chargers aren’t much different to petrol cost plus you spend an extra £20-£30 on drinks and food for the family whilst you wait. I don’t regret the purchase but it does feel like we were a bit early. One more thing - the ride is super smooth on decent roads but it’s so heavy that it’s pretty rough on our rural potholed lanes, perhaps worth trying a few if anyone does a test drive.
Thanks Harry, fascinating video. It makes me realise just how shambolic and rushed the whole switch to electric has been so far. It really frustrates me. Short sighted governments too afraid to make real changes for the fear of losing votes 🥺
I really appreciate these type of videos as much as the road trips, restorations and tests. More please Harry. Thanks.
Thanks Harry, very good analysis well articulated......looking forward to your next video.
Great video Harry! It’s so good to hear an insight in to what is actually going on in the industry
Electricity is not the future for the car industry.
What type of 'fuel' are you thinking?
1. The amount of horrific cobalt mines with children hand mining is sickening to support this new electric craze.
2. The earth warms up and cools down it’s normal and has seen fluctuations over the last 100,000 years. We are but a spec in history.
3. There infrastructure is no where near and a much greater monopoly can be used in electric grid facilities.
Thanks for reading
1: This is a myth. Lithium is used in many things, not just EV's. e.g. the phone, laptop, and any other battery powered device you've been using since 30+ years. Also the EV sector is actively moving away from using cobalt in batteries.e.g. The Tesla SR+ now using LFP batteries which are Cobalt free.
2: Yep we get it. What about removing tail pipe pollution away from the streets !
3: Yes again correct. The EV charging infrastructure is probably similar to what re-fueling stations looked like in the early 1900's - few and far between. Change takes time !
You've just spoken more sense than any politician can understand.
Terrific, clear and insightful info Harry. I really support many of your ideas and am saddened that the battery costs are going up. I think your experience with your Plugin hybrid removing range anxiety is great, and like you I applaud folks for keeping cars long term.
Very insightful, Harry, thank you.
My daily driver is 30 years old this year and still going very strong with over 280,000 miles on the clock and I will be keeping it for a few more years.
Fuel cars are not profiting for companies now anymore as they would last longer. Buying expensive electric and replacing them every few years is more profitable. It's not all about CC.
Honda or Toyota?
@@ln5747 Toyota. 🚙
@@MrMayabeach false, I'm afraid. Most manufacturers struggle to build EVs profitably. Only Tesla make good profit margins on them.
Also, longevity is looking to be better on modern EVs than modern ICE vehicles.
@@richhr89 really, please tell us how long those batteries last. The range of evs is laughable with new batteries, uselessly pathetic after 10, 20% degradation
Excellent rant Harry- 100% with what you are saying….It must be better for the planet to keep hold of cars longer rather than ‘churning’ them…..excellent content as ever, please keep it coming!
Thanks Harry.Very informative and helpful on many fronts.Keep up the good work...
Agree completely. The 2-3 year lease deals have a negative impact not just on green credentials but they allow consumers to drive cars that they can’t really afford, which in the current climate might put a strain on them. I hope these vids are beemed into the House of Commons.
Informative video Harry, thank you. I am moving to this way of thinking as I didn't change my three year old M4 at the end of last year which is the first time I haven't updated in nearly 20 years. As you say the best thing for the environment is to use the cars we have, rather than swapping regularly. On the tax advantages they are huge, but the revenue they will lose out on (fuel, RFL, VAT on servicing etc) will surely mean parity will return sooner than forecast.
People with common sense will always struggle to understand government decisions.
Exactly. Unfortunately for us, the vast majority of the population have an IQ under 80, and subcontract their critical thinking to the WEF and the BBC.
Politicians make poor decisions because they know nothing about their brief. For example the current Health Secretary trained as a solicitor. The Shadow Health Secretary has a degree in History.
Common sense isn't always as sensible as it seems though. If we followed "common sense" we'd have made no scientific progress throughout history and we'd still be living in mud huts. But government decisions do certainly often lack any form of sense at all.
I have never before heard such sense on UA-cam. Exceptional Harry!
Thank you Harry. I learned a lot in this video. Im in America, have an EV, sold my 3 series BMW wagon as I go less than 200 miles per week. My wife still has her petrol civic si in a manual. Appreciate your openness and candor on a difficult subject. We will all have to work together and not vilify each other.
During a recent cold snap in the US, the charging Network did not work, leaving people stranded in their cars to die in the freezing cold. The Chargers simply would not charge in the cold.
Surprised by this as stuck petrol vehicles are a real hazard in snow fall, people die all the time from carbon monoxide poisoning. A stuck EV can run the cabin heater for hours, but if you just go yolo it to a charger with 0% battery left and then get stuck there well you’re not making very sensible life choices.
@@edc1569 I'd like to see the number of people who "die all the time from carbon monoxide poisoning".
A really interesting and thought-provoking video Harry. I’m not quite there on electric cars due to my fairly extensive business travel, but would consider one for runabout use if I didn’t already have a small, highly efficient supermini for that. Looking forward to more words of wisdom from the next episode in this series.
Nice work Harry. Nice to hear your big picture view on these issues. Its very easy to miss the larger impacts of government initiatives and manufacturing targets, initiatives etc....My local short distance vehicle is a 1956 2CV.... just puts a huge smile on my face every time i get out in it. Its garaged so that helps ;) Long distance is generally in a 90's Saab, or if I'm lucky the porsche 914 is up for an adventure.
Please keep going with this new batch of investigative video's that you're doing... this is what we need to discuss the issues with family, friends and colleagues. Also looking forward to the next batch of Countach and Espada vids,
Thanks Harry, brilliant, more of this please.
Love these videos, thoroughly informative and interesting to listen to.
Well said Harry. It would be interesting to see how long people kept their cars in the 80’s or 90’s compared to now.
In the 80s, any old car in the UK was full of rust. It got better throughout the 90s, so you now still see lots of cars from the early 2000s on the road.
More of this please, Harry. Your commentary is just as valuable as the drives.
Hello have you been listed On my Inventory?
Good insight into the numbers and the media will always put a spin on the high-level numbers. Agree with every point in this video, especially with the efficiency of the car itself. I felt my EV in 2019 was an expensive car to do local runs and rely on the woeful charge network with countless apps or minimum credit for long journeys. Switched to PHEV with a 30-mile range and it suits me perfectly, I can't see myself going back to EV anytime soon.
Well Harry you’ve made me feel better about going HP with my finance agreement over PCP. I love my car, so I’ll be glad to own it outright when the deal lapses and it will probably have about 25,000 miles on it max.
I bought a 'December car'! and got a great deal. But that was 10 years ago. Diesel, now with 180K+ miles on it, well maintained and much more environmentally sound than a new car every few years. Great video, lots of good info here.
Of course, your 10 year old diesel is a bit of a pollutor, isn't it?
@@stevemawer848 as is the production of the new car he'd have to buy without it
@@stevemawer848 mines a 10yr diesel and it’s still euro 5 has a dpf and doesn’t stink or smoke….it also flys and uses very little fuel, I’ll be keeping it for a long time yet (repair and maintain is the winner for the wallet and the environment imo)
@@stevemawer848 all 10 year old diesels have a DPF which reduces pollution to virtual nothing, similar to coal fired power stations. So how is it a polluter exactly? Because someone told you so?
I just love it when someone actually talks a bit of good old fashioned common sense, thanks Harry.
REALLY interesting video. Please keep them coming Harry
Enjoyed this style of video, bringing facts into the mix. Looking forward to more like this.
I wondered if you could get chance to go and see the people at Warwick university. They were instrumental in the battery make up we have in the cars now.
What they have in the pipe line and testing of future idea's, could make for an interesting video.
Another aspect of increasing the average weight of vehicles that I haven’t heard discussed much here in the states (perhaps likewise elsewhere) is the additional damage to roads this will cause.
Damage to roadways from weight increases to the sixth power. That means that most vehicles do essentially no damage. It's extremely heavy trucks that do nearly all of the damage. A 4,500lb EV6 in not going to have a significantly greater impact on road wear compared to a 3,500lb ICE vehicle.
Agreed, and in the UK "road tax" is supposed to pay for the upkeep of the roads, so how is an overweight EV going to do zero damage to the roads?
@@bearclaw5115A 6th power function has a very severe “knee”. If the relationship between vehicle weight and road damage is truly a 6th power function, the position of that “knee” as determined by other factors (road construction, for instance) would have to be considered before declaring this a non-issue.
This shouldn't be much of an issue, since roads are designed for trucks - which are more or less a order of magnitude heavier. Even a heavy SUV will be well below the design load.
@@stevemawer848 fake news. Local councils pay for repair of roads, and no it's not from road tax monies.
Firstly thanks for a very well put together video Harry.
Also rant alert (-; Yes, it is clear that the current switch to electric vehicles is not going to run to the current timetables. The numbers do not add up as regards generating capacity feeding the grid etc. Even rudimentary load calculations indicate that if all UK private motor vehicles were to go electric that the generating capacity would need to increase to at least 170% of existing levels. That’s before the impact on the power distribution network is considered. Upgrades of this magnitude will take decades, probably in the 30 to 50 year timescale depending on investment levels. Recall that it’s not just new capacity that’s required, the existing generating fleet will also need to be replaced at the same time!
Reading the comments below, I think there is an assumption that electric vehicle = BEV !! Electric motors / machines are actually excellent at converting stored energy into kinetic energy and back into electrical energy (regen breaking). The primary issue with electric vehicles is and always has been the batteries (going back to the late 1890’s). Batteries are absolutely terrible at storing electrical energy from an energy density perspective. I think there is a little too much effort going into battery development which is now subject to diminishing returns.
I also don't have great confidence that solid state batteries will ever come to much (I will however admit I was wrong if the technology is ever mastered!). More likely, If the technology were feasible, first production generation versions would already be on the road. I suggest that there is not enough going into alternatives (synthetic fuels and yes hydrogen).
The above being said, there is certainly a market for the 100 mile range Nissan Leaf type BEV, however that is not a large percentage of the market. For family vehicles, BEV tech is more or less heading for a dead end.
Harry mentions Mr. Toyoda in the video, I suspect Toyota will be one of the car companies that will do well over the next two decades. They are taking the long term view and are working to the reality rather than the politics in their vehicle development.
In short change is coming, but it will not run as currently envisaged, it almost certainly can’t.
A few notes:
I am a Chartered Electrical Engineer. I was working on motor drive tech 17 years ago (nowadays I do emergency power supplies and DC systems). A former colleague of mine worked on BEVs back in the 1980’s with GM. He has always dispelled the myth that it was the “big bad oil and auto-companies” that killed off the electric vehicle back then, it wasn’t, it was the batteries. Not much has changed.
How refreshing to watch a comprehensive straight forward video about EV cars. Thank you 🙂
Really interesting and informative video Harry, more like this please. Totally agree with your views on new builds, insulation and solar panels. Think we should also go down the route France have taken with solar panels being added to all car parks of a certain size in next 3-5 years.
We need to face the reality that taxpayers, including low income earners, have effectively been forced to subsidise luxury EVs. All under the guise of ideological fanaticism.
It's actually quite insidious and disgusting when you stop to think about it.
Excellent Harry. 1st class analysis and genuinely informative.
Excellent Harry. Completely agree with your points and logic
Interesting update thanks Harry. We've had a Renault Zoe for a couple of years which on a run does ~3.75mi/kW in the winter and ~4.25mi/kW in the summer, more if you sit at 60mph on the motorway. It's charged at home and is a great run around and commuter car (60miles each way twice a week). There's a year left on the lease, and with the cost of cars, interest rates and electricity prices all so much higher than when we got it I suspect that it won't stack up to replace it with another EV.
It's funny because I see a Zoë parked nearby that has been there for years and is daily driven, while a house close to it bought a Mercedes EQS and also installed a wall charger for it. It was gone after less than a year and got replaced by a regular petrol car. It doesn't surprise me that the small Renault is a better car for its purpose!
(1) The surge or spike in December could likely relate to registrations i.e. pre-registrations just to manipulate data, those cars will then need to be sold to customers as demo or nearly new.
Dealers are often doing pre-reg when they need to massage data to hit targets.
Substantially valid points raised Harry. I have a 7yr old 1.6L turbo diesel with a 60L tank that delivers 1300kms at an average speed of 100kmph country driving and it takes mere minutes to refuel. I've travelled 72k since new and it's greatest expense was 4 new tyres. An electric powered equivalent sized vehicle delivers [allegedly] 400-430kms distance and takes a month of Sundays to recharge x 3 times over the equivalent distance of my diesel car. I have no inclination to buy an electric car at today's inflated vehicle prices with sub-standard distance between recharging, on the basis of saving incomprehensible fleet penalties imposed by governments on car manufacturers. Please continue these consumer informative videos Harry. It's a 👍 from me😎👍🇦🇺
Thoughtful analysis and commentary. Thank you Harry.
There's also the problem of the electricity prices going up
The elephant in the room here being why those prices are going up so fast here in the EU.
If you can believe it, the price for energy in the EU market is indexed on German Gas (which is most expensive and particularly now with the Nordstream pipeline sabotage).
Italy and Spain got out of this stupid EU system earlier but not us here in France...and our businesses are now paying the price for this madness.
The plebs will not be able to own a private car in the future once the ice is no more
@@Berry-fr5wjlook no further than hydrogen. The next big thing in around 5-10 years time. See you then!!
@@itechtalk03 Hydrogen it is then
@@itechtalk03 where do you get the hydrogen from?
Agree, bought a used Skoda Superb Diesel 7 years ago with then 30k miles. It's now covered close to 170k miles, is dead cheap in maintenance and running costs, it drives perfectly fine and does all I need from my daily workhorse at an average of 55mpg. I do have solar panels on the roof, so i could easily provide the electricity for an EV, I just don't see any reason to get rid of a perfectly fine car.
And will stink and pollute everyone but why would you care if you get 55mog what a joke
Solar panels on a roof don't "easily provide the electricity for an EV." Where do you get that idea?
WELL SAID
@@johnsmith1474 might be a misunderstanding, but I meant that I have solar panels on the roof of my house. I monitor how much they produce each day and how much I'm actually using. Right now, I'm selling the excess, but it would be easily sufficient to charge and run an EV for my daily use.
@@eiwiss "I do have solar panels on the roof, so i could easily provide the electricity for an EV"
How? Do you have solar batteries? Or work on night shifts?
This video alone is THE BEST UK automotive content produced in a year to date
Well done for your theses. From an owner of a 17 year old X5 (best car I've ever had) Peter J.
If it were not for government mandates , subsidies and threats of massive fines , EV's and renewables would be economically unviable.
Great video and a hot topic it's usually not been properly discussed, so thank you for that! Apart from the drivetrain energy vector or technology, there is another sustainability-related trend I found really interesting (especially as an owner two pretty old cars which perfectly do their function and also make me smile when I drive them): remanufacturing/renewing used cars to keep them up to date, like Renault is doing with their Circular Economy goals; I would love a video of you talking about this. Personally I believe it could persuade car manufacturers to built better quality vehicles (for example if they can keep leasing them to customers beyond the usual 3/4 years) without the pressure to sell more cars to stay afloat (because they would get a revenue stream from the cars for longer), which should mean cutting down emissions and saving precious ressources
Great video as usual, working in automotive and specifically on the launch of the brand new smart #1 I completely agree. While there are positives to EVs the legislative ‘push’ to go electric is going to create problems. Keep up the great work Harry!
Excellent information and thank you Harry.
EV’s are shiny new toys that currently have no mass practical application.
Thank you so much Harry. Really enjoy these discussions. Sorry we can't get diesel cars in the US anymore. Would've been interesting to learn about them first hand and experience them. Btw, you had a picture of a Lucid in the video. Have you tried them out? What are your thoughts?
There are several reasons that passenger vehicles aren’t available in the USA as diesel. A lot of it has to do with emissions standards in the US - which are much more stringent than in Europe/UK. The US has clamped down on types of diesel that are less clean and that’s one reason that the price of diesel is so much higher at the pump than petroleum (regular gasoline). In addition, this higher cost has mean that car manufacturers are far less likely to sell diesel passenger cars over other fuel passenger cars.
Excellent video Harry - thank you for sharing your carefully considered experiences with EVs and your forecast for what might transpire between now and 2030. The whole issue of EV sales, EV infrastructure, etc. is confusing and those of us who buy our own vehicles lack the confidence to make a huge investment into what could end up as the automotive industry's version of Betamax. You have left me in a lot more confident mood to continue to drive my fully paid for, reliable and very comfortable eight year old diesel Mercedes rather than re-enter the car buying market unnecessarily over the next few years.
Harry nailed it
As well as " the system" trying to get us to buy a new electric car every 3 years we have phone manufacturers trying to get us to buy a new phone every year.
Which a bit more lithium.
I'd like to see Harry on Hydrogen. Even the name sounds funky !
I too drive a diesel Mercedes. I’ll be keeping it for a while yet!
This video has helped me too, to decide to continue with the economical mercedes. We have to swap our 2020 model in for a SUV as mobility for one of us prevents getting into a low estate vehicle, but this video, and indeed your comment, assures us we should just get a used Mercedes that is higher off the ground, and carry on as happily as ever.
We were very tempted by the electric SUVs at Brooklands, but maybe we will wait for solid state batteries or whatever emerges. We are getting a big betamax vibe from the industry as a whole. We are excited to see what Mercedes will be able to deliver in the coming years, they are launching hybrid, wall chargeable, petrol cars at the moment. Or perhaps they are launching plans, as you can't get one, you can only order it.
Wow. You nailed 👏 those issues. Many I share but not been able to pinpoint the detail and overview. Everyone needs to hear these concerns...Govts for too long have just been 'singing the polemic electric'.
Thank you Harry. Very informative. The price of electric cars is completely prohibitive for me at the moment. I have a C class which is £20 to tax, surely that has to be the better option.
Another interesting point to consider in order to make sense of the current, somewhat confusing state of the EV market - is that at a recent WEF meeting in Davos, Klaus Swabb called for the end of private car ownership.
Horrible prospect for us petrolheads but probably true if autonomous robotaxis could make regular travel dirt cheap (and far less Carbon intensive as cars wouldn't be parked for 95% of their lives we wouldn't need to make as many of them).
We could have our toys for the weekend 😏
Love the pun Harry! ‘Insulation on buildings is LAGGING behind” 😂
Excellent as always. Thank you.
Absolutely hit the nail on the head on finance agreements with balloon’s forcing the churn and a new habbit of buying cars more often than is actually needed.
Nailed it again Harry, we could all see the flaws in rushing EV's to market with the charging network still lagging way behind. We are sticking with our petrol 1.4 Audi A1 bopping about returning 48 mpg! Very interesting video again 👍
I always loved the A2, personally🙂
Just worth considering, if you feel like using this:
48mpg of petrol means using 56.44kwh of fossil energy to drive 100km. My 492bhp Tesla model 3 has averaged 18.2 kWh per 100km of grid electricity (I am not a particularly economical driver🙄)
Your A1 uses over 3 times the energy of my 1.8 tonne, sub 4s to 60mph saloon.
Both figures are at the car so there is the petrol extraction, refinement and transport to add (equivalent to around 20% more on top) and small charging and distribution losses for the battery car. All calculable and even with the huge production footprint of any car (40% more again for the EV) there is really no comparison, even in the UK.
Carbon emissions per kWh and per litre of fuel are easily available - that of car production more difficult to find, but also available if you want to make the calculation for yourself.
Sadly Harry hasn't done his sums on lifetime carbon emissions (I have, and got rid of my 270,000 mile Volvo as soon as I could afterwards). He does make great points about on street charging and rapid charger infrastructure for travelling in the UK, though.
@@abcxyz2927 all true, but 90% + of miles driven in EVs is slow charged over night on off peak electricity....
@@abcxyz2927 I agree that home or on street charging availability is critical. Annoyingly, this doesn't require upgrading the grid, but it does need plug availability.
Around town? Even just charging slowly at home I have a real 300 mile range. We've covered 65,000 miles with our 2 EVs over less than 3 years mostly charging from a single 32Amp plug. Around 5,000 miles of that from rapid chargers on holiday road trips.
We're not a low mileage family...
@@abcxyz2927 there's something strange about UA-cam comments
@@abcxyz2927 You do realise that the cost of public charging can be reduced by subscribing to the charge network you anticipate using. Depending on the network, Subscribing can bring discounts of up to 50%. Not many people - journalists in particular - seem to know that........ Of course non-subscribers will pay full price.....
Thank you SO MUCH! My only problem was that I could not put a “double thumbs up”!Politicians need to wake up.
I noticed that in the last 2-3 weeks a lot of car manufacturers have come out of the woodwork to say that 100% EV won’t work (it only took Toyota to say it first).
One of the best (if not the best) videos explaining the EV situation at the moment. Thank you for clearing the air (pun intended 😊) on EV's vs ICE's. You gave me knowledge I was missing on this topic. Please keep making these kind of videos.
Europe switching to EVs will have a minuscule impact on global co2 emissions tho. I feel like this whole change is just happening way too quickly. It’s like they want cars to be even more out of reach for poorer people.
Yep, that's it. They just don't want the small people to own a car. Period.
They forced change towards EV is way too soon. It will be too soon until the range of the EV equals the ICE cars AND the electricity charge takes the same time as a petrol fill up AND the number of charging station equals the number of petrol station.
But all that won't happen soon.
'You'll own nothing and you'll be happy' (unless you work for the WEF, then you'll commute to work in your private jet)
I would love to see a Harry's special featuring the "Lightyear One" when it comes to efficiency they are absolute in front of the market... What there's also getting interesting when looking for milage per kWh is electric flying without tire friction one really got better on. Thank your for sharing your content! It's always a pleasure to watch.
What are you on about?
Sadly, the lift required to fly causes huge drag and needs much more energy than tyre rolling resistance. Flying will always be more energy intensive than driving on the ground.
Can’t argue with any of that Harry. Very well put. I don’t quite understand the huge push to EVs either, particularly when the U.K. charging network was and remains absolute landfill.
You clearly havent used it recently have you? Its actually pretty good.
Absolutely agree with everything you’ve said Harry … running a slightly older but still efficient internal combustion vehicle and keeping it well maintained is surely better for the planet & environmental in general! Keep up the excellent work 👍🏼