👉 Get Steve Merril's Picks: wt.buzz/sm 🏈 Live NFL Odds: wt.buzz/nfl-odds 📺 Rest of NFL Week 9 Videos: wt.buzz/2024nfl9 🏈 More Free NFL Picks: www.wagertalk.com/free-sports-picks/NFL 🤷♂ What is your BEST BET for NFL Week 9? Let us know in the comments below 👇
Steve i’ve been seeing some negative comments on your videos recently. i wanted to say that so many of us always appreciate your insight and the time/research you put in. ignore the haters!
Use eye test ( assuming u watch LOTS of NCAA & NFL) & like SM says use the free cappers info picks stats trends metrics as a filter - btw Steve gave out a flawless jets gem on TNF
Thanks Steve. Keep doing the Thursday night analysis. Like you say, “use this as a filter”. I don’t always go exactly what you say, but appreciate the analysis.
Nice vintage Joe Gibbs hat, my play is -.4.5 first half kansas city, Kareem hunt over 50+ rushing yards, alt props, Cade otten over 50.5 receiving yards, lost on colts game, had +5.5 last. Nite, and Jonathan Taylor rushing prop didn't hit at 71.5 yards, only got Baltimore first half -5.5 , great video. Breakdown. Good luck. B.daddy
Love the videos! It’s always nice to get confirmation to my angles from a pro like yourself. Trying to convince myself to get the year package to make my life easier but I’m a proud bettor who likes to make his own picks! Keep up the good work brother!
If the public was consistently making money, book would go out of business. Your comment is just silly, the public loses more often than they win in the long run..
@@jewmaster5000tbf it's practically 50/50 personally id like to hear top 5 public & top 5 sharp plays - but IMHO the whole public vs sharp schtick is Kabuki theatre
Just my 2 cents. The best NFL over prop bets left after the NYJ game are TB White Rec's, NYG Nabers REC Yards, LAR Mathews 1.5tds, DAL Lamb Rec yards. Then second tier maybe ATL rec yards London/Mooney, ATL Robinson Combo, Det Gibbs combo, LAR Williams combo. Third teir MIN Hockinson rec yards, BAL Henry over Rushing, BUF Allen 1.5tds, Buff Cook combo, WAS Daniels 1.5 tds, WAS McLaurin rec yards. Atl: Cousins if you want to do 3+ tds.
BM O 1.5TD, Dobbins O 66.5, Nix U 5.5 rushing attempts, Kennan Allen U 46.5, Minshew U 223.5, Walkers U 15.5 attempts, Ray Davis U 19.5 Rushing yards, Achane U 4.5 receptions, Achane U 40.5 Receiving yds.
I took and recommended the Bills -5.5 on Sunday, and fully expected the public to be all over Buffalo this week as well. I also took and recommended the Buccaneers +9 on Sunday. Not only did we catch a bad number, with clean +9.5s now available, but to say that I'm shocked to see the public on Tampa over the Chiefs would be an understatement.
Yes reminds me of the saints chiefs Monday night game where public liked saints and chiefs cover I love chiefs -9 at home and I hate laying a big number
Losing both games by a combined three points is something else. I think I just have finally realized football might be my favorite sport, but it’s my least favorite sport to bet on. Can’t blame you, Steve. Looking forward to NBA.
I like the under for wash/ny. also like a sprinkle on colts ML - vikings are hurt and colts have covered in 6 straight. and vikings are averaging less than 20 offensive points the last three games.
I would take TB +9.5. KC always seems to play close games. KC has only beat the injury riddled Saints team and an injury riddled 49ers on back to back weeks. Other than that, all their games were within 7.5 pts.
I think the public is just better than they used to be at betting these numbers with all the information that is out there right now and "losing line value" isn't really what it used to be. That's just my opinion. We have 50x more people betting on sports these days, and they are all mostly watching shows like this early on in the week, thus you will have way more drastic line moves that are actually correct than ever before. These folks can pick up a scent on some of these lines earlier in the week and with the volume of action across all the major sportsbooks the lines move quicker. Just my 3 cents. Appreciate the content and dialogue, Steve!
^ Yes 100% agree this is what I have been trying to preach. These days the information you can obtain is widely more accessible... just not the same and people are getting smarter, which means the public is getting “sharper”.
Thanks for taking the time to do the details and all your games. This is called gambling so if anyone thinks you can win every game, they have a real problem.
Steve, thanks for all that you do. I appreciate your insight. I have a serious question. What unit size is needed to make enough profit to cover the cost of your $2000 full year package and then some? Thanks in advance for answering.
All-Sports is currently up +165 units this year (10 months), so $12 unit would be break even. However, I would personally recommend playing much more than that to make a subscription worthwhile.
Dallas +3 Chi/Ari over 44.5. They are 4-1 to the over last 5 times they have played. Chicago is 6-1 to the over vs NFC West Division. Arizona is 9-3 to the over last 12 home games. They are 7-3 to the over as favorites.
Call me a square, but I like Denver. Dave Sharapan (sp?) shared something interesting on Wager Talk Today this week...Baltimore - with Lamar as their starting QB - is 2-11-1 as a favorite of 7 or more. This could be a letdown spot for Denver, but I'll take my chances at +9.
Like the passing props on Joe Flacco's yardage ...he is usually good for close to or over 300 yards passing..I will bet him on all the yardage totals that are positive money here..cashed a few times with him
I like the cowboys outright I think the flavons are overvalued I liked them last week but I mean come on Cowboys aren't good but there stock is so low its an automatic buy
I like taking home division dogs so the Giants and Dolphins are in play but it's hard to back the G Men who can't score at home and who wants to stand in Buffalo's way?....Colts are 7-1 ATS but they are only +1 1/2 points on average over the spread...they have been really lucky. Minny is probably very angry after B/B losses, but I'm a Vikings fan so I'm biased...Jags are looking improved but Eagles even more but that line looks like a setup from Vegas, a real teaser killer...I've been getting the Ravens right and the Chiefs wrong all year. Even without Evans and Goodwin Bucs QB Baker Mayfield still threw 3 TD passes last week, that's 21 on the season...only 5 rushing TD's for Tampa all year and Baker has two of them so take him OVER TD passes. Good job, Steve.
Seriously. We are not better at this than Steve. This isn’t (set/forget passive investing). Exhaustive research & constant analysis needed to beat LV! It requires lead blocking of experts like SM. To me, doing this like a biz, not a hobby is right.
Facts. The goal is always to win, but we can’t win them all or else we would all be rich. Thats why it’s called gambling..if you can’t take your wins like your losses then get out, quit, retire, find something else to do
Sharp money usually moves the line on less ticket count, whereas public money only moves the line when it's a high volume of one-sided ticket count, especially at select books. Sharp money moves usually occur across the screen at the same time.
"Second time around for JDaniels" = very good analysis. If I may add, Sam Darnold/Minn are going to have less and less success. His problems as a QB are becoming more and more pronounced. Holding the ball too long and bad under pressure. Fade Minny as a favorite.
All-Sports is up +165 units first 10 months this year, so $12/unit would be break even already, however I recommend playing much more to make the investment worthwhile.
Vikings fan here- I’m not going to bet because I don’t bet Vikes games, but I would absolutely take the colts at that number. I think Vikes win, colts cover
In general, yes, especially since the Betty market's over adjust, but in this situation Minnesota is actually the public side, which means the Colts line adjustment maybe has not occurred yet.
Hold on. I've been tuning in 3 weeks straight. It is always, "2 red flags!" Is it sometimes 1 ? Sometimes 3 ? Do you whittle the red flags (home dogs?) down to 2? I'm still a fan, but my math mind is saying, "why dat?".
I’m not sure tua is ready to compete with the bills and Josh Allen. Usually when a quarterback comes back off an injury it takes time to adjust. I like the bills in this spot Steve.
Dolphin fan here ,the dolphins have zero pass rush ,linebackers are atrocious ,Holland is not playing ,the coach is a joke,..I would be shocked if the bills don't win by at least 21 points. That's correct.
I ordered some Washington Redskin Shirts --- you can get them on-line and just think I'm an old Cowboy fan who now hates Jerry Jones. Phuck dat Commanders name. Remember, out of dozens of Indian Tribes, only 1 said they were offended and the rest said the name Redskins symbolizes a great warrior --- So tired of all the political correctness BS.
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🤷♂ What is your BEST BET for NFL Week 9? Let us know in the comments below 👇
Smash that LIKE 👍 button!
Steve i’ve been seeing some negative comments on your videos recently. i wanted to say that so many of us always appreciate your insight and the time/research you put in. ignore the haters!
Bet your own money never listen to someone else man. You have to believe in yourself brother
When you lose your bankroll and pay someone in doing so, this is what happens.
@@optimusgrine2362 i’m not sure why you signed up for a gambling service and expected to always be up.
Here here 👏🏻
Use eye test ( assuming u watch LOTS of NCAA & NFL) & like SM says use the free cappers info picks stats trends metrics as a filter - btw Steve gave out a flawless jets gem on TNF
Thanks for watching, best of luck on Sunday everyone! 👍🏈💲
Hey Steve thanks hit
Thanks 2Rs1L
Thanks Steve!
Boom! Keep gettin’ it brother Steve!💪🔥🎥 -Chad J. Merrill
Thanks Chad... us Merrils / Merrills have to stick together! 😉
Thanks for ALL of your Sports insight❗❗❗ Keep it coming..
Thanks for watching!
Thanks Steve. Keep doing the Thursday night analysis. Like you say, “use this as a filter”. I don’t always go exactly what you say, but appreciate the analysis.
Thanks James, always appreciate having intelligent followers like you 👍
Love and appreciate these videos Steve thank you!
Thanks for watching and commenting Joseph
Nice vintage Joe Gibbs hat, my play is -.4.5 first half kansas city, Kareem hunt over 50+ rushing yards, alt props, Cade otten over 50.5 receiving yards, lost on colts game, had +5.5 last. Nite, and Jonathan Taylor rushing prop didn't hit at 71.5 yards, only got Baltimore first half -5.5 , great video. Breakdown. Good luck. B.daddy
Always nice to hear from you Big Daddy!
I like fading WAS and DEN this week. I agree with the public for BUF and MIN.
Got a 6 point Seahawks +8,eagles -1.5, bills pick em +150 teaser. The bright spot as packers and giants were a total
dud.
Love the videos! It’s always nice to get confirmation to my angles from a pro like yourself. Trying to convince myself to get the year package to make my life easier but I’m a proud bettor who likes to make his own picks! Keep up the good work brother!
When you're ready I'll be here, looking forward to having you on board!
Bro good looking out on that -8.5. Free picks doubled me up
Steve thanks for your insight on these games we really appreciate it every week.
Thanks Bobby!
Just like last year public kicking sharps ass in nfl.. change the video to fade the sharps so we can actually start making some money .
If the public was consistently making money, book would go out of business. Your comment is just silly, the public loses more often than they win in the long run..
@@jewmaster5000tbf it's practically 50/50 personally id like to hear top 5 public & top 5 sharp plays - but IMHO the whole public vs sharp schtick is Kabuki theatre
Keep in mind, the sharps are not necessarily on the other side of the public, sometimes they agree with them.
No they wouldn't. They always make money off the vig
New series: Tail the public
Steve I love the videos, listen most weeks and have made money following you in NFL and NBA.
Great to have you on board! Thanks for watching!
Thank you as always Steve for your time and insight
Thanks Robert
Just my 2 cents. The best NFL over prop bets left after the NYJ game are TB White Rec's, NYG Nabers REC Yards, LAR Mathews 1.5tds, DAL Lamb Rec yards. Then second tier maybe ATL rec yards London/Mooney, ATL Robinson Combo, Det Gibbs combo, LAR Williams combo. Third teir MIN Hockinson rec yards, BAL Henry over Rushing, BUF Allen 1.5tds, Buff Cook combo, WAS Daniels 1.5 tds, WAS McLaurin rec yards.
Atl: Cousins if you want to do 3+ tds.
BM O 1.5TD, Dobbins O 66.5, Nix U 5.5 rushing attempts, Kennan Allen U 46.5, Minshew U 223.5, Walkers U 15.5 attempts, Ray Davis U 19.5 Rushing yards, Achane U 4.5 receptions, Achane U 40.5 Receiving yds.
Awesome show thanks!!
Thanks for watching George!
I have a 3 team 6-and-a-half-point tease that is plus money. It is Philly -1 and Cincy - 1/2 with K.C - 2 1/2. Now I'm excited so let's get started.
Thanks Steve. Your the best in the business.
This guy is pretty good. It is called gambling not winning for a reason
Exactly Raymond, most people get it, but there's always a few newbies that do not.
Thanks for the insight as always
Thanks for watching Kevin
I took and recommended the Bills -5.5 on Sunday, and fully expected the public to be all over Buffalo this week as well. I also took and recommended the Buccaneers +9 on Sunday. Not only did we catch a bad number, with clean +9.5s now available, but to say that I'm shocked to see the public on Tampa over the Chiefs would be an understatement.
Yes reminds me of the saints chiefs Monday night game where public liked saints and chiefs cover I love chiefs -9 at home and I hate laying a big number
Losing both games by a combined three points is something else. I think I just have finally realized football might be my favorite sport, but it’s my least favorite sport to bet on. Can’t blame you, Steve. Looking forward to NBA.
Couple points away from 2-0 sweep, that's how close it can be sometimes.
Great work Steve! Thank you.
Thanks for watching Jaclyn
I like the under for wash/ny. also like a sprinkle on colts ML - vikings are hurt and colts have covered in 6 straight. and vikings are averaging less than 20 offensive points the last three games.
I am very grateful Steve!! I am happy paid client.
Thanks Tim, great to have you on board! 👍
Thanks for the Washington Huskie pick last night in college football
It was a solid spot
Love your work bro appreciate you
Thank you!
Damn I took Denver 😤
Hope for the best now haha ..
let’s go
Public dogs sometimes cash 😉
Broncos can still get it done, Ravens 1H could be an out and still give an opportunity to cover both. Ravens strong 1H performers.
Great videos Steve!
Thanks Lucas!
I would take TB +9.5. KC always seems to play close games. KC has only beat the injury riddled Saints team and an injury riddled 49ers on back to back weeks. Other than that, all their games were within 7.5 pts.
Don't sleep on the Eagles D vastly improved in a few short games
I think the public is just better than they used to be at betting these numbers with all the information that is out there right now and "losing line value" isn't really what it used to be. That's just my opinion. We have 50x more people betting on sports these days, and they are all mostly watching shows like this early on in the week, thus you will have way more drastic line moves that are actually correct than ever before. These folks can pick up a scent on some of these lines earlier in the week and with the volume of action across all the major sportsbooks the lines move quicker. Just my 3 cents. Appreciate the content and dialogue, Steve!
^ Yes 100% agree this is what I have been trying to preach. These days the information you can obtain is widely more accessible... just not the same and people are getting smarter, which means the public is getting “sharper”.
Dang … 3 cents ? That’s a 50 % increase . It’s not like we have a money tree in the back yard .
Very true. There’s tons of apps to give you all the info you need.
love these analysis. ty steve
Thank you for watching!
Thanks for taking the time to do the details and all your games. This is called gambling so if anyone thinks you can win every game, they have a real problem.
Those taking a realistic long-term investment approach, such as you, do quite well, can't do much about these short-term random thinkers.
Your Commanders for the win
It's been an incredible season in DC so far
Steve, thanks for all that you do. I appreciate your insight. I have a serious question. What unit size is needed to make enough profit to cover the cost of your $2000 full year package and then some? Thanks in advance for answering.
All-Sports is currently up +165 units this year (10 months), so $12 unit would be break even. However, I would personally recommend playing much more than that to make a subscription worthwhile.
Parlayed the lions and rams in a nail biter rams and me got dam lucky today rams can’t stop nothing all thanks to Geno we won
Dallas +3
Chi/Ari over 44.5. They are 4-1 to the over last 5 times they have played. Chicago is 6-1 to the over vs NFC West Division. Arizona is 9-3 to the over last 12 home games. They are 7-3 to the over as favorites.
Steve is the 🐐
Thanks for watching, always appreciate the support! 👍
MIN new LT, Cashman out will make things a lot easier for Flacco. Consider picking up MIN for next week at Jax.
Call me a square, but I like Denver. Dave Sharapan (sp?) shared something interesting on Wager Talk Today this week...Baltimore - with Lamar as their starting QB - is 2-11-1 as a favorite of 7 or more. This could be a letdown spot for Denver, but I'll take my chances at +9.
Denver is very over rated
Also Lamar is historically great 1H ATS
Denver seems due to get blown out. Nix in a tough spot this week. I'll take the Ravens but 9 is a lot no doubt.
Love Bmore!
Easy win!
Like the passing props on Joe Flacco's yardage ...he is usually good for close to or over 300 yards passing..I will bet him on all the yardage totals that are positive money here..cashed a few times with him
"C'mon Man!" If you join a league you gotta at least set your lineup. Don't be THAT guy. 😂
Great stuff as always. GL.
I reluctantly joined, LoL 😂
I'm like 7up and most nuns on this one, never have never will
I like Dallas outright. They are due for a win.
Hunter Henry Anytime TD +350
What's up my guy Steve, cant belive its week 9 already 😮! Under dog parlay..(Jags +7.5/Falcons -3.5/Giants +4.5)
I like the cowboys outright I think the flavons are overvalued I liked them last week but I mean come on Cowboys aren't good but there stock is so low its an automatic buy
Always great to hear from you KJ... the football season has been flying by fast this year!
Great Job Steve!
Thank you!
Thank you for the videos.
You're welcome.
Thank you for watching!
I'm with the public and Bills -6
Can the yearly subscription be paid in monthly installments like automatic type payments on a CC?
Contact WT Customer Support and ask if this is available.
Keep up the excellent work Double R One L 💯✌🏾
Thanks Garrick!
Do you think the ravens might be looking ahead to the bengals game on Thursday?
is it just me, or are the bengals complete trash lol
In general, I do not worry much about look-aheads, especially when a team lost the previous game.
I even heard one of the coaches was trying to call time out I don't know how true it was why make it up
LOVE THE PICKS 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Thanks for watching Travis!
Great show
Thank you Dennis!
Jags 1qtr spread …. Eagles 0-8 1qtr spread
At DK I got the Vikings U 12.5 teams wins when they were 5-0.
Appreciate you
Thank you for watching!
I like Giants Miami and Rams
Good luck Thomas!
Commanders, Bills, Rams
I like taking home division dogs so the Giants and Dolphins are in play but it's hard to back the G Men who can't score at home and who wants to stand in Buffalo's way?....Colts are 7-1 ATS but they are only +1 1/2 points on average over the spread...they have been really lucky. Minny is probably very angry after B/B losses, but I'm a Vikings fan so I'm biased...Jags are looking improved but Eagles even more but that line looks like a setup from Vegas, a real teaser killer...I've been getting the Ravens right and the Chiefs wrong all year. Even without Evans and Goodwin Bucs QB Baker Mayfield still threw 3 TD passes last week, that's 21 on the season...only 5 rushing TD's for Tampa all year and Baker has two of them so take him OVER TD passes. Good job, Steve.
I agree hard to make a case of the Giants, although I think the second time against the Commanders will be beneficial for them.
My gut says bills are going to have a very tough time their next 4 games
I started off thinking WAs would win, now probably NYG. Guess it has to be a no touch.
Need an empty stomach to bet Miami. I’d rather take Bills 1st half and reevaluate at HT or make a move live betting.
I agreed with the giants
What's the play for tomorrow
Always enjoy these videos
Thank you for watching!
Just curious what’s your personal unit size
Best Bets are rated as 4% of bankroll.
The Chiefs will have a perfect regular season record.
If they catch a few breaks along the way, it is definitely possible.
Colts vs Minneapolis game last year made me sick #fixed
I'd forgotten about that crazy Saturday game.
@stevemerril1485 I still don't believe that, I also needed that Colts game to win a big parlay, so it stung extra, but I feel that game was a sham
What's the record with fade the public thus far this year?
1st 4 wks 9-15 / L4 wks 18-6
Ravens 1H -5.5💰
I took giants game under
Dolphins, Patriots and still looking
Seriously. We are not better at this than Steve. This isn’t (set/forget passive investing). Exhaustive research & constant analysis needed to beat LV! It requires lead blocking of experts like SM. To me, doing this like a biz, not a hobby is right.
Facts. The goal is always to win, but we can’t win them all or else we would all be rich. Thats why it’s called gambling..if you can’t take your wins like your losses then get out, quit, retire, find something else to do
Thanks John 👍
Bucs have no Godwin or Evan’s , still 9 points is a lot
Steve loves taking the Giants spread and they keep losing by at least a TD
I hate public. I’m on rams -1.5 lol😊
So am I.. big..nice pick..🎉
@@EricLussier-no5no facts
How can you tell if it's public money? How can you tell if it's sharpe money?
Sharp money usually moves the line on less ticket count, whereas public money only moves the line when it's a high volume of one-sided ticket count, especially at select books. Sharp money moves usually occur across the screen at the same time.
LFG SM!
Yes Joey ... always great to hear from you my friend!
"Second time around for JDaniels" = very good analysis.
If I may add, Sam Darnold/Minn are going to have less and less success. His problems as a QB are becoming more and more pronounced. Holding the ball too long and bad under pressure. Fade Minny as a favorite.
Let’s go commanders‼️ hail Maryland ✅
#HTTR
What does the unit size need to be in order to pay off your $2k full year package and make some profit?
$1,100 🤣
All-Sports is up +165 units first 10 months this year, so $12/unit would be break even already, however I recommend playing much more to make the investment worthwhile.
Steve, What do you make of Daniel Jones at home numbers vs. his road performances? Statistical anomaly or real issue?
I like Indy+5.5 .Viking De overrated
Vikings fan here- I’m not going to bet because I don’t bet Vikes games, but I would absolutely take the colts at that number. I think Vikes win, colts cover
Viking should be focused after back-to-back losses, but I do think the cults are better with Flacco at QB.
Vikes defence have been phenomenal this season hardly an overrated team imo
Agree to both but not having Blake Cashman is a game changer for our defense
Why NOT fade a team that is 7-1 against the spread? Shouldn't they revert to the mean and the books should start giving them fewer points?
In general, yes, especially since the Betty market's over adjust, but in this situation Minnesota is actually the public side, which means the Colts line adjustment maybe has not occurred yet.
15:00 Tampa has scored on everyone except Denver....
Hold on. I've been tuning in 3 weeks straight. It is always, "2 red flags!" Is it sometimes 1 ? Sometimes 3 ? Do you whittle the red flags (home dogs?) down to 2? I'm still a fan, but my math mind is saying, "why dat?".
Red Flag Alert is my catch phrase for public underdogs, since public normally plays favorites.
I’m not sure tua is ready to compete with the bills and Josh Allen. Usually when a quarterback comes back off an injury it takes time to adjust. I like the bills in this spot Steve.
It will certainly be interesting to see how Tua performs!
Dolphin fan here ,the dolphins have zero pass rush ,linebackers are atrocious ,Holland is not playing ,the coach is a joke,..I would be shocked if the bills don't win by at least 21 points. That's correct.
First!
Winner! 🏁
I ordered some Washington Redskin Shirts --- you can get them on-line and just think I'm an old Cowboy fan who now hates Jerry Jones. Phuck dat Commanders name. Remember, out of dozens of Indian Tribes, only 1 said they were offended and the rest said the name Redskins symbolizes a great warrior --- So tired of all the political correctness BS.
Redskins are looking good this year!
BO NIX IS NO JOKE THANKS STEVE FOR THE INFO
Thanks for watching!
Giving you likes and thumps up is the least we can do.
Thank you 👍👍
This guy HATES Buffalo 😅
Not really, I went to school with their head coach.
Cash em...Dont trash em
💯👍🤑
Steve, aren’t the G-man a “bad team”?
Exactly what angle/data convince you here?
I made a big mistake I took Florida A&M I forgot how good the crowd is in South Carolina😢😮😅 Buffalo Bills big time
I'm against the public this week and on JAX and I got 7.5 -- Let's go