Last week, a realtor from the MNL / Makati / BGC Group Real Estate site posted a listing on a Facebook group featuring hundreds of bank-owned foreclosed properties throughout Metro Manila. This indicates that, with POGO renters gone, many condos are now sitting empty. I also looked at listings for condos available for rent, and although there were many "For Rent" signs, the asking prices were excessively high. For instance, there was a three-bedroom, three-bath condo for sale in BGC with an asking price of 200 million pesos. The place was bare, with hardly any furniture, and overall, it lacked appeal. To put that into perspective, 200 million pesos is equivalent to approximately $3,398,000. In San Francisco, you could buy a condo at that price and enjoy a spectacular view of the Golden Gate Bridge, the ocean, and downtown San Francisco, complete with first-class amenities. I believe that condo is significantly overpriced. It seems as though they set the price out of thin air, hoping for an easy payday without putting in the effort. It's just too unrealistic.
You could also buy many homes in San Francisco, Phoenix, Tucson , Santa Bsrbara, San Diego as well. BGC is a total joke. Maybe it's worth 12 million pesos.
What I was told by an old timer is during real estate crashes, the condo prices crash the hardest. A house could crash in 10% or 20% in price but a condo will crash 25%.
You are correct. It’s the unregulated greed of the developers is to blame. Before, the preselling properties are cheaper and the secondary properties are expensive. Now it’s the other way around. Secondary properties are cheaper while the preselling properties are much much more expensive and the completion time is longer than before. It’s the developers who’s to blame for this.
Unregulated greed? There's no such thing. You have the option not to buy. That's the regulation part. Either you buy it, or you don't. You regulate their greed by not buying.
Me and my husband are both retired in the US but getting a condo in the Philippines may not happen as they are too expensive. We might end up constructing a house in the province where I have land that I got from my parent. Buying too expensive properties could limit us to travel in any different places. We are not investing for Airbnb anymore as we are already old. Traveling around the country and around could make our life fulfilling.
Yup good idea not to buy a condo. I quit the rat race when I was 53. I worked in 🇨🇦 and 🇺🇸 also citizens. I moved here in 🇵🇭 and bought an empty lot and had my house built in 2018 for way less than these expensive condos. I have a minimalist house with a touch of Western style concept. I could’ve built on my family’s property but decided not to because of future siblings drama. I only spend on utilities every month and have no mortgage payment . I didn’t buy a brand new vehicle because imo it’s a waste. My money goes further living here especially the $1 at 58 right now. I live a healthier lifestyle so I do my grocery shopping at S&R, Landers, Shopwise etc. They carry imported products and organic veggies.
Sold my Rockwell and BGC condos two years ago. I already knew then that the yield on my investments was decreasing due to continued over construction of condominium buildings. I already knew a bubble existed then, it just got worse now because of the POGOs’ exit. The absurd lack of transparency in the Philippine property market borders on Criminal. The Philippine Congress needs to pass laws that improve transparency in such a critical market.
I migrated to the US in 2009 (I work in health care). Back in 2021, I was planning to invest in real estate (rental property), I checked prices in Manila (San Juan, Mandaluyong, Makati etc). I was surprised that it was actually cheaper to buy here in North California. I ended up buying a 3 bedroom home here (20% down payment) and it was easy to get tenants. Worked out well as the rent pays for the mortgage +extra passive income. I do miss Manila though so me and my wife may still end up retiring back home in Ph so keeping my eyes open if there is a market correction.
You should have gone ahead and bought a lot (not a condo) back in 2021 anyways. Lots in reputable developments like Ayala sell really fast, and with appreciation, you could sell it for a nice profit if that’s your thing. I’ve experienced it. I wish I had more 😂.
@ I actually bought a house and lot, 3 BR 2 bath, 6100 sqft. Just needed to pay the 20% downpayment. The rent paid by the tenants cover for the mortgage. Interest rates (2.8%) were low back in 2021 too.
i suggest you retire in Mindanao,like Davao and Polomolok,Tupi,and nearby town, it's really amazing place with no traffic. adding to that,are the fresh fish and vegetables 😊.
This is probably the most honest video I’ve seen on Philippine realestate market. Another factor that will force a drop is when AI technology starts affecting Call center employment in the Philippines. This will start happening in the next 2 years
I doubt it. I had a talk with a friend of mine that currently works in the BPO and she said that their CEO wouldn't expect much out of AI and WOULD still be hiring humans since the scope and limitations of AI are still not comparable to a human (in terms of call center problems, such as small nuances, wrong information given to the AI model, etc.) Also, I am a CS degree holder with a background in AI/ML (Artificial Intelligence/ Machine Learning). AI is good at PREDICTIVE messages, but isn't that good (compared to a human) at identifying social cues (YET). Maybe around 5 to 10 years, but 2 years is too small of a time frame (even though AI technology is advancing at a logarithmic pace)
@@plumeater1i guess you’re still young and have a technical knowledge on AI. Look at it from a macroeconomics perspective, also, what kind of CEO would say that he will layoff people in the next couple of years for profit? AI in the short term will not directly replace people, for example, instead of having 10 people supporting, i can kick out 8 of them and have AI supplement the work and the remaining 2 people to handle complex cases. This is not even a ‘secret’ anymore since this has been happening for quite some time already. People with routinary tasks usually are deemed redundant, less cashiers, less customer service agents, automation has kicked off many people from their jobs already, let alone AI in the next few years.
@@javier.alvarez764 You should see what amazon already did then. They cut half of offshore call center because now their AI chat assistance does majority of returns and refunds. Is already started and other companies will follow suit. Target is already starting it too.
I got sacked due to AI. We are creatives too. I thought we would be the last to get replaced but nope, we are the first to go. Nothing is guaranteed. Learned the hard way
This is what I had been thinking all along! PH is still a developing country and most Filipinos aren't earning big enough rent these condos! Thank you for these developers who are making Metro Manila similar to Hong Kong where the rents are so high and the units are so small.
Before we met, my wife bought a preselling condo in 2012 for herself. We then got married and she moved with me to California. The unit turnover was mid 2014 when she was already here so we rented it out. Being a long-distance landlord is a pain. We used two different rental agents/property managers, and they were basically useless. They did not vet the renters well and really only cared about their commissions. By 2019 we had had enough and decided to sell. We had a really hard really time finding a buyer and it took almost a year to sell. Not a lot of locals can afford a condo, and banks are leery of giving out loans for used units (I don't blame them, my brother-in-law said the quality was horrible and materials used were obviously cheap. Why would they risk their money on something that might not be in sellable condition in a few years). And again, our agent was useless, and we eventually found a buyer ourselves here in Cali. We breathed a huge sigh of relief once that sale closed.
Overseas Filipino Workers is a large group of buyers for Filipino condos, that is why many condo units are vacant. They buy for retirement and as investment. These overseas buyers also is the reason that Philippine condos are of poor quality, as these owners do not monitor the maintenance of their properties, and do not participate in owners associations, allowing developers to keep control of the property admin offices, and milk it for profit. When you see agents offering condo units with no downpayment required, run. The developer behind that mode of selling is also the largest developer in BGC, and if you check the quality of the property admin, you will know what I mean. Maintenance is minimal, and lifts are left to rot. Meanwhile, there is a huge amount of delinquency in the condo's association dues collection, most probably because the developer still owns units in the condo, but does have to pay the dues because they control the property admin office.
Name one developer that does not require a down payment. Most developers at pre-selling will offer an installment payment schedule of the down payment, maybe 20 payments for example, to make it less painful for the buyer. But no down payment? You're mistaken.
you've made a big point. it is inevitable since the Philippines doesn't have regulations when it comes to condos. they should have at least a minimum size. my G! i saw one selling 15sqm eh paano pa ito matitirhan , just for greed they will squeeze and put you to a smallest cage conditioning your mind that it is a " affordable condo" without thinking na re-sellable pa ba ito?
The Philippines have a building code with minimum area requirement per part of a dwelling unit. The lowest I've seen is around 18sqm studio. Provide the 15sqm listing link or you're just simply lying.
As a designer and architect, I've witnessed so many empty condos using the same technique: looking for lights in apartments to confirm if condos where occupied.. and it's not only in manila but in Cebu and Davao too. i would also add that in the Philippines, theres also the developers poor work quality, adds to the risk of a bad investment. They are cheap.. the layout.design choices with doors that don't fully open, terrible ventilation that breeds mold, structural cracks appearing way too soon, and leaks everywhere limited amount of evacuation stair case - these are common problems in newly completed builds. Those are going to affect the property's value, making it an even more risky investment. and these issues are just going to get worse with time - if you can't afford a real architect that will guarantee their work.. i really feel that land is the only reliable asset in the Philippines.
Meh. I bought condos at One Shangri-La Place in 2012. The development was completed in 2015. The place is in great shape, still feels new. So stop generalizing as you're obviously not an experienced property investor or condo owner
That's very true. Build quality is bad here compared to Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia. All of our good and skilled workers, engineers, etc have gone abroad to work.
@@robocop581 what? Lol I work in the construction industry, as an engineer, like the guy in the main comment here and we both have the same sentiments. Even reputable developers like SMDC, DMCI, etc. have questionable quality of work. You will know, if you work in property management. The problem of (hairline) cracks appearing and water seepage, are too common even in newly built condos and that shouldn't be the case since they're newly built. That's already a red flag for your investment.
I agree with you, you made some good points here. There are good reputable developers of condo residences in the Philippines. I think we know who the top dog is, and I only buy from the top dog. But there are only a handful, maybe less, of the good ones. You're referring to the unknown and lesser known ones who build tiny units in lousy locations. Their target market usually are OFWs and small families who are starting out, or for investments. I can name a few here, but I'd rather not.
Key term… artificially inflated… I have seen a couple of condos in Metro Manila and I would consider them…. At one third the asking price. I don’t think the realtor was prepared for that level of honesty. The prices do not reflect the product. Nor does the product reflect the price.
China said that 5 years ago too. Look what happened now. Ever heard of evergrande group? how about the megaworld group? Pretty similar business practice eh? Connect the dot and you'll know what the future holds.
I'm a multiple condo owner and after the POGO ban, I started selling a unit and try to diversify my investment,, Vacancy now are high it's really different here in Pinas how pricing is being set. Sad for investors,,,
Thank you for your insightful analysis. There is also the cultural aspect that wealthy Filipinos have been conditioned to buy real estate. The great fortunes of the Philippines are founded on wealth from large tracts of lands since the Spanish era. When I moved back to the Philippines after 50 years in 2018, it puzzled me that I could rent a million dollar apartment in makati or BGC for the equivalent of less than $1500USD per month. To me, the rental yields did not make sense to buy. They still don’t. In 2024, my rent is even lower for a luxury 3 bedroom apartment in BGC with views all the way to Bataan and Cavite. Most apartments in the rental market are owned by wealthy individuals who own multiple units that are unencumbered by leverage, the pressure for a decent ROI seems unimportant compared to the idea of owning real property. I don’t think we will see a big correction however. This mindset in ingrained to the culture and I believe is the reason why we don’t see huge corrections in the purchase markets. But I tend to agree, that the current conditions might be a perfect storm that could in fact drive prices down.
That’s because the wealthy owners are mostly corrupt government officials and rich criminals esp. drug dealers who just want to launder money and just want to park their ill-gotten wealth in physical assets. These people don’t care about ROI, only the opportunity to steal money and hide them by investing in physical assets like real estate using dummies. Get it? That’s what corrupt Chinese CCP officials are doing here in the U.S. esp. in California and New York. They buy properties here using cash and they don’t care if the mark up on the property is so high. They only care about parking their stolen money.
Your mindsets are the reason you cant excel in most things. Country full of backward thinking loosers, who only real accomplishment is to find a foreigner, mix their children, bleach their skin, assimilate cultures, tik toc, wish for a pointy nose, gossip, crab mentality, scamming , lady bugs😉 etc, etc,etc😮
i am into real estate.. naging part time agent din ako at buyer.. I just sold my condo just this year, grabe sobrang hirap ebenta. There are a lot of owners selling their unit and too few buyers. I've been telling this to my friends that the condo bubble already begun. Condo prices in Ph per sqm is way expensive than Singapore.
Lesson learned. Only buy a condo if you intend to live in it. There are many greedy people who wants to turn everything they touch to cash. But its never gonna happen for real estate. No never. Stop the greed mentality.
the collapse has already begun; in cebu brand new towers with amazing corner penthouse 2/2 80sqm developer price 16m; assume price 9m Loads of unsold units
I would not worry so much about cebu since it has become the preferred city of tourists as their pad to go to other islands. You can ask foreigners except for BGC which is quite far- they dont like Manila. Also many flights from japan and korea direct to Cebu.
Thank you. Finally someone got this one right. Why would the real estate in the Philippines be so freaking expensive as if the country is a hub for technological, commercial, scientific employment opportunities. It's far from it. Yes, the country is beautiful with all the beaches and the people are friendly but that's all. Economically speaking though real estate is way too expensive.
I live in the Seattle area and own a condo in the Ortigas/ Greenfield area as a vacation residence. I bought it for 3M 5 years ago and it has probably doubled in value. Every time I'm there, I can tell that some units have been vacant ever since (no AC units installed and no lights at night). I do think a correction will happen sooner or later....
This is best video I’ve seen on Philippines real estate. You hit the nail on the head their needs to be an MLS here in the Philippines so people can see what the actually comparable sales are here not just what the sales agent tells them it’s worth.
Excellent video, right on spot. This problem is exactly what we were also talking about. Problem is there really is no transparency regarding real estate here.
you should search evergrande group in China and how theys ell real estate condo. Now look at megaworld group in Philippines. Once you connect the dot, you have your answer.
@@broadcast_mode950 -50% in china? All the big developers are going bankrupt. Lost 10000 Euro recently for trusting a real estate company in Germany. Even it's not a real bubble market it was enough to go belly under. The sorry comes long after the adrenaline pump of the first profits. Seen so many smart people in 2008 learning it the hard way
I’ve been thinking the condo market is going to crash horribly for some people. Many of the units shouldn’t be more than 3-4 million max, and they are being listed for 6-12 million. Meanwhile, rental prices are too low to pay for the units. Make it make sense.
@ I’ve noticed pre sale prices go from 2.7 to 3.4 after a few sales on some new developments. This seems to be a common strategy. 100% developer markup is a real possibility.
The rent might not be officially going down, but one can usually get a steep discount on the posted price. A DMCI 2-bedroom unit near BGC is usually renting at 30K bare including dues. I chatted with the owner and he is willing to take 25K. We ended up settling at 22K dues included provided that we pay 6 months in advance with the rest in PDCs. The key here is to haggle and negotiate wisely. If you have ready cash you can make it work for you.
its not only the condo market but the real estate market in general. In Cebu there are subdivisions from the far areas who are sold for ridiculous prices because it had an existing subdivision of the same name in another far area that sold like hot cakes 5 years ago.
POGOs were also deteriorating property value. True they created some rental income for some, but the risks and reputation it created devalued a lot of property development
Great point! I also believe PH condo market are way overpriced with very little demand. It seems as these condos were built not for Filipinos but for foreigners. I believe there's indeed an oversupply and yet there's a lot of new condos being built. Do you have data on permits? It would be great to know how many units are in the pipeline to see if in fact we're about to see a correction.
There is data on current and incoming supply. A real estate research firm estimated a 2-year supply on the market. There is local demand for safe and decent housing especially in the main cities. It depends on the project and developer. Some developers tout their projects as rental investments but rentals are taking some hit. On the other hand, the DMCI projects near me are virtually sold out so there is clear demand for those kinds of units. Those are targeted mainly for middle-class families. Lots of the buyers use the units as starter homes or 2nd homes in the cities. The Philippines still has a housing backlog in the millions. Personally, I find most of the new condos overpriced so I expect price adjustments but developers and owners are stubborn.
An average 2br condo in Metro Manila is NOT 12 million pesos. That is the cost of a larger LUXURY condo in a great area like BGC. There are plenty of 2br DMCI condos all over metro Manila selling for half of that, although they are smaller, 48 sqm minus the balcony.
You are right. 2BRs (45 Sqm with extra storage) from old DMCI projects are 4-5 Million. Newer and larger ones (50-60+ sqm) are 6-7 Million. It still makes sense to buy if you're going to live in it. Rentals are lower compared to Makati/BGC condo units because many of the DMCI projects are outside the CBDs.
I rented a condo built. by Robinson Land. on Mactan island. I was not impressed by the built quality. I also was not impressed with the property management, in the club house the roof was leaking for years no one fixed it.
It will take more than a decade before the price of condos declines because they are still in high demand, particularly in Metro Manila. Most pre-selling condominiums no longer have any available units for purchase.
this is a GREAT opportunity.. markets are ALWAYS either sellers market,,, or buyers market... its a BUYERS MARKET.. easy to do CREATIVE deals with secondary owners, large developers selling their foreclosures, maybe.
Totally correct This was always my analysis on the condo unit market in the Phil. Lots of people i know have condo units that they want to unload but with out any buyers Not even an offer And i am talking about at least 1 year in the market.
CBD condos like BGC, Makati, Ortigas or the upcoming Arca South are still less expensive than CBD condos in America like New York, Washington DC or in downtown Los Angeles or San Francisco. Comparing CBD condos in the PH vs. suburban condos in the US will have large disparities and is pointless. A CBD to CBD condo comparison between the PH and the US would still make PH condos more affordable, and more spacious compared to some condos in New York in a similar price point.
I'm an SPA of a Century Property condo unit in P'que (near BGC). It was meant to be rented, now it's for sale. It was never occupied since it was turned over more than 5 years ago.
The real estate market in Baguio City is unique due to its popularity as a tourist destination. Many individuals seek to own vacation properties or provide educational opportunities for their children in the city. However, the recent surge in pre-selling condominiums has led to a significant increase in prices, with average studio units now ranging from 3.5 to 4 million Philippine pesos for a mere 25 square meters that is even less sometimes... 😂. While there is a possibility of a market correction in saturated areas like NCR, certain locations like Baguio may exhibit resilience, although this remains uncertain and a maybe.
In preparation for retiring in the Philippines end of 2026, my wife & I acquired a 1BR condo in BGC (Avida Turf BGC) & a 1BR condo (Sapphire Bloc) in Pasig/Ortigas CBD mid 2020. We plan to live in one of the condo's (BGC preferably) & rent out the other for passive income. We currently have tenants in our Avida Turf BGC condo since November 2023 @ P45K/month locked in for 2025. So, our goal was mainly for a place to live as well as having a passive income stream on top of whatever we have coming in from retirement income, SSA, & 401Ks. Make retirement preparations early!!!
I am a 33 year old single guy here in the US, I recently bought a 1 BR deluxe condo near an up and coming CBD. In the future I want to go back home to the PH for good to find a wife and raise a family haha and this condo will be one of my multiple income generating assets providing me with passive income stream. No investment is perfect and bullet proof. For me its about mitigating as much risk as you can to increase the chances of turning your condo rental investment into a success. For example I chose a condo that is in very close proximity to a central business district, the condo is being built by a developer that has a very strong track record and reputation, I bought it while preselling and while the CBD and area is still in its early phase, being strategic with the position on the building of the unit I purchased, and paying it in full before I go home for good. While there are a lot of things I cannot control, I am controlling all the controllables to make this a success. Whatever happens, I will have a solid condo unit in a prime location that is built properly using good materials and is well thoughout and it is already fully paid so whatever happens, my condo unit doesn't have a mortgage anymore. Also I think that the vacancy and oversupply is a temporary issue. The Philippines has a rapidly growing young population and people choosing the PH as a retirement destination is increasing because imagine retiring and having a monthly social security payout of 2k USD per month. In the US that would only cover the rent and nothing else. In the PH, that is 100K+ pesos which will make anyone live like a king because the average salary in the PH is 20k to 30k pesos per month. A retiree can afford to pay rent say at 20k to 40k pesos per month and still has 60k pesos to spend on whatever for the rest of the month, still way more money than what the average filipino employee in the PH earns in a month.
@ you stated here what a lot of people in your situation feel but couldn’t articulate. Investments have risks, some more than others. You obviously acquired the necessary knowledge and took the big jump into buying a condo in the Philippines, and in cash fully paid. Those who say they will never ever buy real estate in the Philippines may be missing out, or have done so and got burned, or listened to non-investors. Furthermore, you went with a reputable developer, good move. I’m guessing Ayala or Alveo (same company), but I digress. Be patient and stay away from the naysayers. Sana makahanap ka ng mabuting tao para pakasalan. God willing. 🫡
Ummm you should be having children now. Who wants to be raising child in thier 70"s's. And you will not live like a king on $2000 month. @Anonymous-xq3cd
@@Anonymous-xq3cd Yeah, until you get sick and go to the hospital and you’ll go bankrupt because they have no health insurance as good as we have it here in the U. S. At least here in America, you only have to pay the maximum out of pocket payment and not the full amount of the hospital bills. You can have a million dollar surgery here and just pay like $3,000 (for individual) or $6,000 (for family) for out of pocket maximum payment. I know that doesn’t include the monthly premium that we pay but at the end of the year, the total cost can only be around $18,000 to $20,000 (deductible, out of pocket maximum and monthly premium included). In the Philippines, healthcare costs are astronomic and if you are in and out of the hospital, your one million dollars will not last long. And if you go broke, they don’t have Medicaid/Medicare and the government doesn’t have a good Social Service program so you will be left to your own devices.
What should I do? Should I proceed with bank financing for my preselling condo ? its going to turnover in 2026 but im afraid about the real estate market here in PH. I have been paying monthly for downpayment for 2yrs now.
If you're going to use the unit personally, it still makes sense because decent, safe housing is scarce especially in Metro Manila. The Philippines has a housing backlog of 5 million units. If you bought for rentals and flipping, the yield and capital gains can go lower than was presented to you by your agent. Some owners find it difficult to sell their units at the prices they want at this time. Chinese buying spree from a few years back did create pricing spikes. Some of the projects, especially in CBDs, are clearly overpriced. I expect price correction but developers and owners are stubborn. Condos will probably hold or increase in value in the long term especially if you bought from a good developer and the location is good. We haven't had a real estate crash comparable to what the US experienced. Our banking system is pretty conservative. . I have foreign neighbors in my middle class DMCI condo. They have been here for more than a decade. Our community still looks good. I can sell my unit at double the price I bought it but I bought early and our project is in a great location. The newer DMCI projects near my old one are sold out. Demand comes mainly from locals and OFWs. I will not be able to buy a similar unit to mine at today's current prices but Filipinos are still buying so there is obviously demand for some projects. Pre-selling can still be a good deal.
To make it concise, Most sellers and investors ARE DELUDED. How could you not look at the economic state of the country and think these prices are realistic?!
i regret buying a condo in the Phils, reselling is a tough row to hoe, and there are no accurate data to look into, it’s a botched industry in the Phils.
@@oceanearth2243 hi! it wasn’t intended for lease but for a holiday i bought it in 2017 in cash so there’s less pressure for an ROI and i’m hopeful that it had increased in value, that’s the yield i’m counting on, atm a family is staying and assumed some bills and that’s a good thing. Just that reselling is so difficult and data on realestate is nowhere to find and there’s definitely an oversupply.
Even the super rich old money folks in Cebu, are not buying expensive condo units . They buy bodegas for businesses, turn a small portion of the property into a living spaces..
BGC town has the only Hightech flood control system no electrical utility pole on the street all cable buried in the ground safest place to live that's what you pay for.
I agree it's inflated, but it's never going to crash. I’ve been waiting for it to crash for almost 20 years now. It will have a correction that only translates to a slowdown.
It defies logic. Most buildings are at 50% occupancy yet they keep building 100’s more towers. Even tnough that should be a full blown buyers market, the owners wont budge on selling price.
A price correction should be logical but developers and sellers are still stubborn. The housing backlog and demographic window will drive long -term demand for the right projects.
corporations, cooperatives, businesses, and other institutions as well as syndicates (laundering) are now the biggest buyers of Condo's in Metro Manila.. They would buy dozens of units and some wont hesitate to rent it out.. That's why newly developed condos would sell out immediately but would remain an unfilled residencecfor months...
How can a product be overpriced if it has low demand?Why will they build condos then sell them at an overprice when they knew that almost no one will buy them?Are these builders/investors stupid which i`m sure did a feasibility studies before throwing millions of pesos building those condos.I have a 2br condo in BGC since i got it in 2016 i never had problem finding tenants.
I observe it also in house and lot you can see the price for a very far province that atleast far from the CBD is as expensive per square inch as the one in the NCR. And to make give it justificaton they will claim only these few minutes to BGC, Makati and other CBD if you leave 2 am
For a 3rd world country, the real estate market in the Philippines has become excessively inflated. It's crucial for the government to recognize and tackle this problem. In fact, in some areas of North America, property prices are surprisingly lower than PH.
I bought a lot in Fairview for P1M (fx rate is $1=25) in 1998. I sold it in 2019 for P4.5M net (fx rate is $1=50) after 20 years. Approximately my average rate of return is only 4-5% mainly because of the exchange rate. If I've invested this money with S&P 500, my average rate of return would have been 9-10% so I basically lost money.
Problems with condos are very limited market options. Its basically you either live in it or leased it. Leased on the other hand need to have adequate market accessibility and has to provide better options on why you need to buy it. Like is the condo close to the things you love to frequent?
This guy clearly didn't do careful research. The PH market is different from other countries, you can't simply compare the recipe from other real estate market. In BGC & Makati report alone, both vacancy rate are not bad at all. Large attribute of PH is from service economy, that means the buyers are not from local salary base, but from foreign worker service. The remittances alone in 2023 & 2024 is growing big annually. Most of the buyers & renters are Filipinos mixed with foreigner that earning foreign currency which mostly benefit from weak peso. Price of properties will keep going up for a long period of time and will not bubble anytime soon. New projects from developers have lots of backlog. Cleary the barometer here is not what you expect.
Again a proper test would be to look at new Condos at night are the lights on or mostly off? The answer to that will either support or break your credibility.
@@123pripri There are many Filipinos who are based overseas who bought condo units. Their properties are idle. They don't want them to be rented. I have 8 cousins in US/Canada who have bought condos in McKinley and Ortigas. No tenants and it's okay for them. I also have nephews/nieces who purchased condos in Mandaluyong and Ortigas but they are based in UK and Canada. Nobdoy stays in their properties. So, I disagree with the vlogger's basis that the dark condos are dead assets or unsold units.
@@RR52517 And u think overseas people buying condo without ever using it is sustainable, because? How many people think of buying a condo and holding it for years and just barely use it is a good investment??
Great analysis, thank you! Just a quick off-topic question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
After the pandemic many workers like who were renting out in the city chose to move back to the provinces after transitioning to work from home. Living in the province costs so much lower than in the city plus life quality is better. I now have my own space compared to before when I was living with strangers I met in the internet just to afford living in a condo
The real estate property to invest are house and lot. That is an asset that wont depreciate, unlike condos which depreciates after 20+ years. I can see people renting more into house and lots, it also provides bigger space for movement, better privacy, better security and cheaper rent per square meter.
Thats factually false------Most house and lots, are hundreds of kilometres away from the train stations and shopping malls and schools and hospitals and factories and offices ,which means far from places providing jobs---------------------------and hence extremely inconvenient to stay at those house and lot----------------------while most condo units are next door or a few metres away from train stations and shopping malls and schools and hospitals and factories and offices -------------which means just next door or few metres from places where jobs are located
new condos like DMCI fairlane have their balcony light controlled by the building so that at night all the balcony lights are on, thus giving the illusion of full occupancy (sakit sa mata pag natutulog ako). may halong panlilinlang!
sad reality..i have 10 condos and some are already paid off..i am into cash flow but the rental rate went down but the prices are sky high even with pre-selling.
The prices are more ridiculous in the provinces. Why will anyone buy a condo for 12m when they can buy a full house across the street for 6m with 4x the space?
As part of the working class, I will say that getting a house even a condo unit is too impossible. Take a look for example SMDC, they sell a small rent to own condo unit with 300k down payment equivalent to 5,115 US Dollar for a 20 sqm. On top of that you have to pay additional charges. Prices of condominiums are too expensive for us to buy it that is why these developers are targetting foreigners to invest or buy their condominiums.
i actually noticed this when they first ban the POGOs, i knew it spelled trouble for the condominium market, and it will domino on to the construction sectors as well, its very worrisome cause im in the construction sector as well, i hope the bubble doesn't burst but just slowly corrects itself
The issue is the furnished and unfurnished are the same price. As an American I see no benefits in buying a condo. Which is sad for Filipino who has the money to do so. Its a lost
banning pogo is a super bad move. it isnt the rootcause of the crimes like what some politician claim... and now that they banned it, the crimes still persist!
I will and forever be a buyer of condos. These people who calls for crash to come in the future are the ones trying to time the market. Just keep this in mind when making your decision if you should invest. Has the prices of everything you consume has gone up or down in the last 10 years? 20 years or 30 years? If it did, so will condominiums. And if a crash comes, I guess it’s time to buy my next property.
@ Philippines is not China nor other countries. But non the less, if prices of properties go down, I’m buying cause guess where the princess are headed.
@@MarkCZ26 no philippines is not China but Megaworld is a China builder that builds condo in Philipppines thatuses the same business practice as China. Same pre selling tactics and same way using debt to build. If Megaworld falls due to no one buying pre selling, all those who bought those will be affected too which will in return affect other condo prices around it. Yes it won't be as bad as China but it will be as bad as Hong kong though. But go ahead and ignore this at your peril.
@ yes I’ll take the risk at my own peril which I have since the very first property I bought 22 years ago. Ived bought and sold the past 2 decades and grew a great side hustle out of it. I’m an investor, and if it goes down, it’s an opportunity in the Philippines.
at bgc - its property valuation, i work at a bank, the rich bought units, yes UNITS. with no intention to rent it out or live in it for the short term. they use it as a collateral to run their businesses or buy another unit.
Rental yields have stayed flat for like 10 years! For a good investment, my rule of thumb is the rent has to cover at least the monthly mortgage for the balance of DP. Based on experience, a prominent developer in BGC allegedly appears to manipulate the market by preventing investors from flipping by pasalo or assumption at lower rates just to keep the prices inflated.
they need to correct the market but i think another factors its ok for them to repossed the property that they sell it to the buyer. bec they can sell it with less value or maybe brand new with CURRENT MARKET VALUE. so it means they can get much higher sales than previous buyer. example 2018 price condo 12m 2 br then yr 2022 they repossessed it since they have a in house contractor make it more luxurious or premium if not bare unit to make it looks good then check market value 18m tada less expense etc 1m net profit of 5m. now the good thing is they can get another dp and other advances with new better interest income. youll see this with real estate with in house financing setup
Repo prices make no sense here. The bank has already received roughly 50% of the selling price from the original purchaser, then they repo it and turn around and sell it for full price.
Condos are not anymore a lucrative investment if you're talking about rental or even Airbnb short term rentals. The rental rates 7-8years ago for a studio unit are pretty much the same with present rates, while prices of the condo units have doubled compared 6-8yrs ago. So it means if you bought a unit at current prices, you will have your ROI in 20years, compared to 10years if you bought it 7yrs ago with the same rental rates.
Last week, a realtor from the MNL / Makati / BGC Group Real Estate site posted a listing on a Facebook group featuring hundreds of bank-owned foreclosed properties throughout Metro Manila. This indicates that, with POGO renters gone, many condos are now sitting empty.
I also looked at listings for condos available for rent, and although there were many "For Rent" signs, the asking prices were excessively high. For instance, there was a three-bedroom, three-bath condo for sale in BGC with an asking price of 200 million pesos. The place was bare, with hardly any furniture, and overall, it lacked appeal.
To put that into perspective, 200 million pesos is equivalent to approximately $3,398,000. In San Francisco, you could buy a condo at that price and enjoy a spectacular view of the Golden Gate Bridge, the ocean, and downtown San Francisco, complete with first-class amenities. I believe that condo is significantly overpriced. It seems as though they set the price out of thin air, hoping for an easy payday without putting in the effort. It's just too unrealistic.
You could also buy many homes in San Francisco, Phoenix, Tucson , Santa Bsrbara, San Diego as well. BGC is a total joke. Maybe it's worth 12 million pesos.
BGC is in a different bubble. You can say that vacancy rate in other areas are high but not in BGC.
@@tiklad0 how sure are you? I saw lists of BGC properties bankowned.
@@alroberts193 how much is the minimum bid? Can you share a list or link please.
It’s always negotiable
Yup. Just as I predicted years ago.
Buying condos is never a good investment. Not in these times.
What I was told by an old timer is during real estate crashes, the condo prices crash the hardest. A house could crash in 10% or 20% in price but a condo will crash 25%.
You are correct. It’s the unregulated greed of the developers is to blame. Before, the preselling properties are cheaper and the secondary properties are expensive. Now it’s the other way around. Secondary properties are cheaper while the preselling properties are much much more expensive and the completion time is longer than before. It’s the developers who’s to blame for this.
Exactly! The government should regulate or else the time will come the properties in the Philippines will become China.
EXCACTLY
Secondary market properties have always been cheaper. What are you talking about? Think of cars, are brand new cars cheaper than 2nd hand cars?
Unregulated greed? There's no such thing. You have the option not to buy. That's the regulation part. Either you buy it, or you don't. You regulate their greed by not buying.
Unregulated meaning FREE MARKET decides the price?? Greed? But you seemed to enjoy your iPhone, UA-cam, Google.
Me and my husband are both retired in the US but getting a condo in the Philippines may not happen as they are too expensive. We might end up constructing a house in the province where I have land that I got from my parent. Buying too expensive properties could limit us to travel in any different places. We are not investing for Airbnb anymore as we are already old. Traveling around the country and around could make our life fulfilling.
Good decision
Yup good idea not to buy a condo. I quit the rat race when I was 53. I worked in 🇨🇦 and 🇺🇸 also citizens. I moved here in 🇵🇭 and bought an empty lot and had my house built in 2018 for way less than these expensive condos. I have a minimalist house with a touch of Western style concept. I could’ve built on my family’s property but decided not to because of future siblings drama. I only spend on utilities every month and have no mortgage payment . I didn’t buy a brand new vehicle because imo it’s a waste. My money goes further living here especially the $1 at 58 right now. I live a healthier lifestyle so I do my grocery shopping at S&R, Landers, Shopwise etc. They carry imported products and organic veggies.
I like the traveling part of your story 🤙🏽
@@amaliahightowersmart wo/man, smart moves.
That’s an excellent idea. Travel while you still can as it can be very difficult to move around in a wheelchair.
Invest in memories, not things.
Keep on building and if the price collapses I will buy.
Possible
Sold my Rockwell and BGC condos two years ago. I already knew then that the yield on my investments was decreasing due to continued over construction of condominium buildings. I already knew a bubble existed then, it just got worse now because of the POGOs’ exit.
The absurd lack of transparency in the Philippine property market borders on Criminal. The Philippine Congress needs to pass laws that improve transparency in such a critical market.
Wishful thinking. Who would shoot themselves in the foot?
How did you sell? Ive been trying to sell mine for 2 years
@@akak8299 I had to use realtors to market my properties. Took me less than a year to sell both properties.
I migrated to the US in 2009 (I work in health care). Back in 2021, I was planning to invest in real estate (rental property), I checked prices in Manila (San Juan, Mandaluyong, Makati etc). I was surprised that it was actually cheaper to buy here in North California. I ended up buying a 3 bedroom home here (20% down payment) and it was easy to get tenants. Worked out well as the rent pays for the mortgage +extra passive income. I do miss Manila though so me and my wife may still end up retiring back home in Ph so keeping my eyes open if there is a market correction.
You should have gone ahead and bought a lot (not a condo) back in 2021 anyways. Lots in reputable developments like Ayala sell really fast, and with appreciation, you could sell it for a nice profit if that’s your thing. I’ve experienced it. I wish I had more 😂.
@ I actually bought a house and lot, 3 BR 2 bath, 6100 sqft. Just needed to pay the 20% downpayment. The rent paid by the tenants cover for the mortgage. Interest rates (2.8%) were low back in 2021 too.
Pls go bk asap! We dont want you here. God knows you country needs help😅
i suggest you retire in Mindanao,like Davao and Polomolok,Tupi,and nearby town, it's really amazing place with no traffic. adding to that,are the fresh fish and vegetables 😊.
This is probably the most honest video I’ve seen on Philippine realestate market. Another factor that will force a drop is when AI technology starts affecting Call center employment in the Philippines. This will start happening in the next 2 years
I doubt it. I had a talk with a friend of mine that currently works in the BPO and she said that their CEO wouldn't expect much out of AI and WOULD still be hiring humans since the scope and limitations of AI are still not comparable to a human (in terms of call center problems, such as small nuances, wrong information given to the AI model, etc.)
Also, I am a CS degree holder with a background in AI/ML (Artificial Intelligence/ Machine Learning). AI is good at PREDICTIVE messages, but isn't that good (compared to a human) at identifying social cues (YET).
Maybe around 5 to 10 years, but 2 years is too small of a time frame (even though AI technology is advancing at a logarithmic pace)
@@plumeater1i guess you’re still young and have a technical knowledge on AI.
Look at it from a macroeconomics perspective, also, what kind of CEO would say that he will layoff people in the next couple of years for profit?
AI in the short term will not directly replace people, for example, instead of having 10 people supporting, i can kick out 8 of them and have AI supplement the work and the remaining 2 people to handle complex cases.
This is not even a ‘secret’ anymore since this has been happening for quite some time already. People with routinary tasks usually are deemed redundant, less cashiers, less customer service agents, automation has kicked off many people from their jobs already, let alone AI in the next few years.
I'm pretty sure hiring a filipinos that have third world country salary rate is a lot more cheaper than AI. AI has a lot of limitations.
@@javier.alvarez764 You should see what amazon already did then. They cut half of offshore call center because now their AI chat assistance does majority of returns and refunds. Is already started and other companies will follow suit. Target is already starting it too.
I got sacked due to AI. We are creatives too. I thought we would be the last to get replaced but nope, we are the first to go. Nothing is guaranteed. Learned the hard way
This is what I had been thinking all along! PH is still a developing country and most Filipinos aren't earning big enough rent these condos!
Thank you for these developers who are making Metro Manila similar to Hong Kong where the rents are so high and the units are so small.
In general, the average Filipino will not rent a condo. The Filipinos who buy condos are usually those who are working overseas.
Before we met, my wife bought a preselling condo in 2012 for herself. We then got married and she moved with me to California. The unit turnover was mid 2014 when she was already here so we rented it out. Being a long-distance landlord is a pain. We used two different rental agents/property managers, and they were basically useless. They did not vet the renters well and really only cared about their commissions. By 2019 we had had enough and decided to sell. We had a really hard really time finding a buyer and it took almost a year to sell. Not a lot of locals can afford a condo, and banks are leery of giving out loans for used units (I don't blame them, my brother-in-law said the quality was horrible and materials used were obviously cheap. Why would they risk their money on something that might not be in sellable condition in a few years). And again, our agent was useless, and we eventually found a buyer ourselves here in Cali. We breathed a huge sigh of relief once that sale closed.
@@dennispadilla5853 Soemthing very negative was the 6% seeking charge you had to pay to sell. Makes a difference
Damm
When it comes to solid condo development reputation, there’s only one name you can have confidence in.
@@EddieLagalag the name please?
Never wise to buy illiquid properties that tie up your money in a fixed asset with not good rental yields .
Depends on your investment portfolio. You gotta have a mix of different types of investments, both short and long term.
good news for us middle-class peeps
There is a lot of defaults in the mid end market. For the mid end market, there are a lot of great deals on the market right now.
Not exactly. Many of these condos are of poor quality.
@@rbaker3557 like your comment?
Overseas Filipino Workers is a large group of buyers for Filipino condos, that is why many condo units are vacant. They buy for retirement and as investment. These overseas buyers also is the reason that Philippine condos are of poor quality, as these owners do not monitor the maintenance of their properties, and do not participate in owners associations, allowing developers to keep control of the property admin offices, and milk it for profit. When you see agents offering condo units with no downpayment required, run. The developer behind that mode of selling is also the largest developer in BGC, and if you check the quality of the property admin, you will know what I mean. Maintenance is minimal, and lifts are left to rot. Meanwhile, there is a huge amount of delinquency in the condo's association dues collection, most probably because the developer still owns units in the condo, but does have to pay the dues because they control the property admin office.
@@coshopnow7623 wait till the poor saps get stuck with a horrendous ballon payment
Name one developer that does not require a down payment. Most developers at pre-selling will offer an installment payment schedule of the down payment, maybe 20 payments for example, to make it less painful for the buyer. But no down payment? You're mistaken.
avoid megaworld like the plague@@EddieLagalag
you've made a big point. it is inevitable since the Philippines doesn't have regulations when it comes to condos. they should have at least a minimum size. my G! i saw one selling 15sqm eh paano pa ito matitirhan , just for greed they will squeeze and put you to a smallest cage conditioning your mind that it is a " affordable condo" without thinking na re-sellable pa ba ito?
You did not see a 15sqm condo for sale.
The Philippines have a building code with minimum area requirement per part of a dwelling unit. The lowest I've seen is around 18sqm studio.
Provide the 15sqm listing link or you're just simply lying.
True! SMDC is making Metro Manila like Hong Kong! These Chinese are so greedy.
Meron pa po 13 sqm studio type... Its very worst and it cost 3.5 M PHP
@kiane9465 tagaytay Clifton and many more. Actually pumunta kayo sa listing's or sa pagibig condo for sale ang dami.
As a designer and architect, I've witnessed so many empty condos using the same technique: looking for lights in apartments to confirm if condos where occupied.. and it's not only in manila but in Cebu and Davao too.
i would also add that in the Philippines, theres also the developers poor work quality, adds to the risk of a bad investment. They are cheap.. the layout.design choices with doors that don't fully open, terrible ventilation that breeds mold, structural cracks appearing way too soon, and leaks everywhere limited amount of evacuation stair case - these are common problems in newly completed builds. Those are going to affect the property's value, making it an even more risky investment. and these issues are just going to get worse with time - if you can't afford a real architect that will guarantee their work.. i really feel that land is the only reliable asset in the Philippines.
Meh. I bought condos at One Shangri-La Place in 2012. The development was completed in 2015. The place is in great shape, still feels new. So stop generalizing as you're obviously not an experienced property investor or condo owner
That's very true. Build quality is bad here compared to Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia. All of our good and skilled workers, engineers, etc have gone abroad to work.
@@robocop581 what? Lol I work in the construction industry, as an engineer, like the guy in the main comment here and we both have the same sentiments. Even reputable developers like SMDC, DMCI, etc. have questionable quality of work. You will know, if you work in property management. The problem of (hairline) cracks appearing and water seepage, are too common even in newly built condos and that shouldn't be the case since they're newly built. That's already a red flag for your investment.
@@troevell You lost me at "reputable developers like SMDC, DMCI.." Lol.
I agree with you, you made some good points here.
There are good reputable developers of condo residences in the Philippines. I think we know who the top dog is, and I only buy from the top dog.
But there are only a handful, maybe less, of the good ones.
You're referring to the unknown and lesser known ones who build tiny units in lousy locations. Their target market usually are OFWs and small families who are starting out, or for investments. I can name a few here, but I'd rather not.
Key term… artificially inflated… I have seen a couple of condos in Metro Manila and I would consider them…. At one third the asking price.
I don’t think the realtor was prepared for that level of honesty.
The prices do not reflect the product.
Nor does the product reflect the price.
A crash has been a hot topic for years, but still not happening. On our floor, a third is occupied but rent is not going down.
@@pilotographer well it will now, the data supports it.
China said that 5 years ago too. Look what happened now. Ever heard of evergrande group? how about the megaworld group? Pretty similar business practice eh? Connect the dot and you'll know what the future holds.
I'm a multiple condo owner and after the POGO ban, I started selling a unit and try to diversify my investment,,
Vacancy now are high it's really different here in Pinas how pricing is being set. Sad for investors,,,
I think it's good. Investors are the reason prices have gone up everywhere.
Take the L !
Oversupply condos no buyers no tenants because POGOS SUDDENLY LEFT PHILIPPINES 😂😂😂😂😂
Greedy lesson learned. If you want to own a condo make sure to live in it.
I know a Filipino in UK who owns 8 condos in the Philippines! Filipinos abroad are the market for condos!
Wow. Not the actual Filipinos who actually live here. What's the point of being near land if you can't even own it.
Hows the UK market doin
This is so true. OFWs are the ones who usually own condo units.
How many ofw's are like your friend though?
Excellent points. A correction is in fact overdue. But until these developers still hold out, it's simply become a matter of time as to when.
Thank you for your insightful analysis. There is also the cultural aspect that wealthy Filipinos have been conditioned to buy real estate. The great fortunes of the Philippines are founded on wealth from large tracts of lands since the Spanish era. When I moved back to the Philippines after 50 years in 2018, it puzzled me that I could rent a million dollar apartment in makati or BGC for the equivalent of less than $1500USD per month. To me, the rental yields did not make sense to buy. They still don’t. In 2024, my rent is even lower for a luxury 3 bedroom apartment in BGC with views all the way to Bataan and Cavite. Most apartments in the rental market are owned by wealthy individuals who own multiple units that are unencumbered by leverage, the pressure for a decent ROI seems unimportant compared to the idea of owning real property. I don’t think we will see a big correction however. This mindset in ingrained to the culture and I believe is the reason why we don’t see huge corrections in the purchase markets. But I tend to agree, that the current conditions might be a perfect storm that could in fact drive prices down.
That’s because the wealthy owners are mostly corrupt government officials and rich criminals esp. drug dealers who just want to launder money and just want to park their ill-gotten wealth in physical assets. These people don’t care about ROI, only the opportunity to steal money and hide them by investing in physical assets like real estate using dummies. Get it? That’s what corrupt Chinese CCP officials are doing here in the U.S. esp. in California and New York. They buy properties here using cash and they don’t care if the mark up on the property is so high. They only care about parking their stolen money.
Your mindsets are the reason you cant excel in most things. Country full of backward thinking loosers, who only real accomplishment is to find a foreigner, mix their children, bleach their skin, assimilate cultures, tik toc, wish for a pointy nose, gossip, crab mentality, scamming , lady bugs😉 etc, etc,etc😮
i am into real estate.. naging part time agent din ako at buyer.. I just sold my condo just this year, grabe sobrang hirap ebenta. There are a lot of owners selling their unit and too few buyers. I've been telling this to my friends that the condo bubble already begun. Condo prices in Ph per sqm is way expensive than Singapore.
Lesson learned. Only buy a condo if you intend to live in it. There are many greedy people who wants to turn everything they touch to cash. But its never gonna happen for real estate. No never. Stop the greed mentality.
the collapse has already begun; in cebu brand new towers with amazing corner penthouse 2/2 80sqm developer price 16m; assume price 9m
Loads of unsold units
What's the profit of developers? 100%-200%?
I would not worry so much about cebu since it has become the preferred city of tourists as their pad to go to other islands. You can ask foreigners except for BGC which is quite far- they dont like Manila. Also many flights from japan and korea direct to Cebu.
Thank you. Finally someone got this one right. Why would the real estate in the Philippines be so freaking expensive as if the country is a hub for technological, commercial, scientific employment opportunities. It's far from it. Yes, the country is beautiful with all the beaches and the people are friendly but that's all. Economically speaking though real estate is way too expensive.
This very true. Saw a promo recently that developers provided 10% discount just to make sales. Definitely its about to crash soon.
I`ve heard that 10 yrs ago still not happening
A big discount means a correction in the market.
I live in the Seattle area and own a condo in the Ortigas/ Greenfield area as a vacation residence. I bought it for 3M 5 years ago and it has probably doubled in value. Every time I'm there, I can tell that some units have been vacant ever since (no AC units installed and no lights at night). I do think a correction will happen sooner or later....
This is best video I’ve seen on Philippines real estate. You hit the nail on the head their needs to be an MLS here in the Philippines so people can see what the actually comparable sales are here not just what the sales agent tells them it’s worth.
BGC is not really affected by POGO exit and this is an ideal, walkable and flood-free district.
Once price goes down to 50% of it’s price now, or near the actual price it should be, might invest on it
Excellent video, right on spot. This problem is exactly what we were also talking about. Problem is there really is no transparency regarding real estate here.
These is a real estate bubble all over the world right now. When the costs of units out paces the average income by 50x, or 100x something is WRONG!!!
What's the profit of developers? 100%-200%?
you should search evergrande group in China and how theys ell real estate condo. Now look at megaworld group in Philippines. Once you connect the dot, you have your answer.
@@broadcast_mode950 -50% in china? All the big developers are going bankrupt. Lost 10000 Euro recently for trusting a real estate company in Germany. Even it's not a real bubble market it was enough to go belly under. The sorry comes long after the adrenaline pump of the first profits. Seen so many smart people in 2008 learning it the hard way
I’ve been thinking the condo market is going to crash horribly for some people. Many of the units shouldn’t be more than 3-4 million max, and they are being listed for 6-12 million. Meanwhile, rental prices are too low to pay for the units. Make it make sense.
What's the profit of developers? 100%-200%?
@ I’ve noticed pre sale prices go from 2.7 to 3.4 after a few sales on some new developments. This seems to be a common strategy. 100% developer markup is a real possibility.
@@broadcast_mode950 wtf? You’ve said this 20 times? 🙄
The rent might not be officially going down, but one can usually get a steep discount on the posted price. A DMCI 2-bedroom unit near BGC is usually renting at 30K bare including dues. I chatted with the owner and he is willing to take 25K. We ended up settling at 22K dues included provided that we pay 6 months in advance with the rest in PDCs. The key here is to haggle and negotiate wisely. If you have ready cash you can make it work for you.
the lack of transparency in the real estate industry in the Philippines is really a big problem
its not only the condo market but the real estate market in general. In Cebu there are subdivisions from the far areas who are sold for ridiculous prices because it had an existing subdivision of the same name in another far area that sold like hot cakes 5 years ago.
Very true. 2M for 40sqm townhouse in Bogo and Toledo. And its very low quality.
BGC is flood free, security, cleaniness, is worth the price. Location is important.
POGOs were also deteriorating property value. True they created some rental income for some, but the risks and reputation it created devalued a lot of property development
Thank you for your insight. Great learning experience
Great point! I also believe PH condo market are way overpriced with very little demand. It seems as these condos were built not for Filipinos but for foreigners. I believe there's indeed an oversupply and yet there's a lot of new condos being built. Do you have data on permits? It would be great to know how many units are in the pipeline to see if in fact we're about to see a correction.
There is data on current and incoming supply. A real estate research firm estimated a 2-year supply on the market. There is local demand for safe and decent housing especially in the main cities. It depends on the project and developer. Some developers tout their projects as rental investments but rentals are taking some hit. On the other hand, the DMCI projects near me are virtually sold out so there is clear demand for those kinds of units. Those are targeted mainly for middle-class families. Lots of the buyers use the units as starter homes or 2nd homes in the cities. The Philippines still has a housing backlog in the millions. Personally, I find most of the new condos overpriced so I expect price adjustments but developers and owners are stubborn.
Let the truth be told... kudos to you
An average 2br condo in Metro Manila is NOT 12 million pesos. That is the cost of a larger LUXURY condo in a great area like BGC. There are plenty of 2br DMCI condos all over metro Manila selling for half of that, although they are smaller, 48 sqm minus the balcony.
You are right. 2BRs (45 Sqm with extra storage) from old DMCI projects are 4-5 Million. Newer and larger ones (50-60+ sqm) are 6-7 Million. It still makes sense to buy if you're going to live in it. Rentals are lower compared to Makati/BGC condo units because many of the DMCI projects are outside the CBDs.
Many place in Philippines, they rather leave the place empty than lower rent price.
For me i rather lower price 5% than empty...
I rented a condo built. by Robinson Land. on Mactan island. I was not impressed by the built quality. I also was not impressed with the property management, in the club house the roof was leaking for years no one fixed it.
The developers are hands off after turnover, admin and unit owners have to step up for maintenance
It will take more than a decade before the price of condos declines because they are still in high demand, particularly in Metro Manila. Most pre-selling condominiums no longer have any available units for purchase.
this is a GREAT opportunity.. markets are ALWAYS either sellers market,,, or buyers market... its a BUYERS MARKET.. easy to do CREATIVE deals with secondary owners, large developers selling their foreclosures, maybe.
Totally correct
This was always my analysis on the condo unit market in the Phil.
Lots of people i know have condo units that they want to unload but with out any buyers
Not even an offer
And i am talking about at least 1 year in the market.
I couldn’t agree more. Seeing ads for comdos with promos of price decrease of 10-20% which was unheard of pre-pandemic.
CBD condos like BGC, Makati, Ortigas or the upcoming Arca South are still less expensive than CBD condos in America like New York, Washington DC or in downtown Los Angeles or San Francisco. Comparing CBD condos in the PH vs. suburban condos in the US will have large disparities and is pointless. A CBD to CBD condo comparison between the PH and the US would still make PH condos more affordable, and more spacious compared to some condos in New York in a similar price point.
I'm an SPA of a Century Property condo unit in P'que (near BGC). It was meant to be rented, now it's for sale. It was never occupied since it was turned over more than 5 years ago.
Thanks for telling the truth.
The real estate market in Baguio City is unique due to its popularity as a tourist destination. Many individuals seek to own vacation properties or provide educational opportunities for their children in the city. However, the recent surge in pre-selling condominiums has led to a significant increase in prices, with average studio units now ranging from 3.5 to 4 million Philippine pesos for a mere 25 square meters that is even less sometimes... 😂. While there is a possibility of a market correction in saturated areas like NCR, certain locations like Baguio may exhibit resilience, although this remains uncertain and a maybe.
In preparation for retiring in the Philippines end of 2026, my wife & I acquired a 1BR condo in BGC (Avida Turf BGC) & a 1BR condo (Sapphire Bloc) in Pasig/Ortigas CBD mid 2020. We plan to live in one of the condo's (BGC preferably) & rent out the other for passive income. We currently have tenants in our Avida Turf BGC condo since November 2023 @ P45K/month locked in for 2025. So, our goal was mainly for a place to live as well as having a passive income stream on top of whatever we have coming in from retirement income, SSA, & 401Ks. Make retirement preparations early!!!
That’ll work 🤙🏽
I am a 33 year old single guy here in the US, I recently bought a 1 BR deluxe condo near an up and coming CBD. In the future I want to go back home to the PH for good to find a wife and raise a family haha and this condo will be one of my multiple income generating assets providing me with passive income stream. No investment is perfect and bullet proof. For me its about mitigating as much risk as you can to increase the chances of turning your condo rental investment into a success. For example I chose a condo that is in very close proximity to a central business district, the condo is being built by a developer that has a very strong track record and reputation, I bought it while preselling and while the CBD and area is still in its early phase, being strategic with the position on the building of the unit I purchased, and paying it in full before I go home for good. While there are a lot of things I cannot control, I am controlling all the controllables to make this a success. Whatever happens, I will have a solid condo unit in a prime location that is built properly using good materials and is well thoughout and it is already fully paid so whatever happens, my condo unit doesn't have a mortgage anymore. Also I think that the vacancy and oversupply is a temporary issue. The Philippines has a rapidly growing young population and people choosing the PH as a retirement destination is increasing because imagine retiring and having a monthly social security payout of 2k USD per month. In the US that would only cover the rent and nothing else. In the PH, that is 100K+ pesos which will make anyone live like a king because the average salary in the PH is 20k to 30k pesos per month. A retiree can afford to pay rent say at 20k to 40k pesos per month and still has 60k pesos to spend on whatever for the rest of the month, still way more money than what the average filipino employee in the PH earns in a month.
@ you stated here what a lot of people in your situation feel but couldn’t articulate. Investments have risks, some more than others. You obviously acquired the necessary knowledge and took the big jump into buying a condo in the Philippines, and in cash fully paid. Those who say they will never ever buy real estate in the Philippines may be missing out, or have done so and got burned, or listened to non-investors. Furthermore, you went with a reputable developer, good move. I’m guessing Ayala or Alveo (same company), but I digress. Be patient and stay away from the naysayers. Sana makahanap ka ng mabuting tao para pakasalan. God willing. 🫡
Ummm you should be having children now. Who wants to be raising child in thier 70"s's. And you will not live like a king on $2000 month. @Anonymous-xq3cd
@@Anonymous-xq3cd Yeah, until you get sick and go to the hospital and you’ll go bankrupt because they have no health insurance as good as we have it here in the U. S. At least here in America, you only have to pay the maximum out of pocket payment and not the full amount of the hospital bills. You can have a million dollar surgery here and just pay like $3,000 (for individual) or $6,000 (for family) for out of pocket maximum payment. I know that doesn’t include the monthly premium that we pay but at the end of the year, the total cost can only be around $18,000 to $20,000 (deductible, out of pocket maximum and monthly premium included). In the Philippines, healthcare costs are astronomic and if you are in and out of the hospital, your one million dollars will not last long. And if you go broke, they don’t have Medicaid/Medicare and the government doesn’t have a good Social Service program so you will be left to your own devices.
What should I do? Should I proceed with bank financing for my preselling condo ? its going to turnover in 2026 but im afraid about the real estate market here in PH.
I have been paying monthly for downpayment for 2yrs now.
If you're going to use the unit personally, it still makes sense because decent, safe housing is scarce especially in Metro Manila. The Philippines has a housing backlog of 5 million units. If you bought for rentals and flipping, the yield and capital gains can go lower than was presented to you by your agent. Some owners find it difficult to sell their units at the prices they want at this time. Chinese buying spree from a few years back did create pricing spikes. Some of the projects, especially in CBDs, are clearly overpriced. I expect price correction but developers and owners are stubborn. Condos will probably hold or increase in value in the long term especially if you bought from a good developer and the location is good. We haven't had a real estate crash comparable to what the US experienced. Our banking system is pretty conservative. . I have foreign neighbors in my middle class DMCI condo. They have been here for more than a decade. Our community still looks good. I can sell my unit at double the price I bought it but I bought early and our project is in a great location. The newer DMCI projects near my old one are sold out. Demand comes mainly from locals and OFWs. I will not be able to buy a similar unit to mine at today's current prices but Filipinos are still buying so there is obviously demand for some projects. Pre-selling can still be a good deal.
To make it concise, Most sellers and investors ARE DELUDED. How could you not look at the economic state of the country and think these prices are realistic?!
i regret buying a condo in the Phils, reselling is a tough row to hoe, and there are no accurate data to look into, it’s a botched industry in the Phils.
Are you earning any yield at all?
@@oceanearth2243 hi! it wasn’t intended for lease but for a holiday i bought it in 2017 in cash so there’s less pressure for an ROI and i’m hopeful that it had increased in value, that’s the yield i’m counting on, atm a family is staying and assumed some bills and that’s a good thing. Just that reselling is so difficult and data on realestate is nowhere to find and there’s definitely an oversupply.
My jaw dropped when i heard the association dues was 10k at a condo just across uptown bgc...
Even the super rich old money folks in Cebu, are not buying expensive condo units . They buy bodegas for businesses, turn a small portion of the property into a living spaces..
BGC town has the only Hightech flood control system no electrical utility pole on the street all cable buried in the ground safest place to live that's what you pay for.
BGC is the safest place to live. I don’t think so 😂. Try living abroad and you will know.
@@edisonuy8435😂 yeah so try working there and living in the Phils... fly back and forth daily in a pvt jet?😂
Genius you are!
@@edisonuy8435 Oh yeah where China Town abroad? I live in US
@@edisonuy8435 BGC IS safer than most American cities by far
Thanks for this video John!
Solid analysis bro 👍🏼
What's the profit of developers? 100%-200%?
I agree it's inflated, but it's never going to crash. I’ve been waiting for it to crash for almost 20 years now. It will have a correction that only translates to a slowdown.
It didn't burst because of influx of outside capital in the form of POGO. Now they are gone.
I actually agree with you on this. I never said it’s going to crash. Only that there would be buying opportunities
@@theVhin have you seen the poor state of those condos only like 5 year old?? Let other suckers pay for them
It defies logic. Most buildings are at 50% occupancy yet they keep building 100’s more towers. Even tnough that should be a full blown buyers market, the owners wont budge on selling price.
A price correction should be logical but developers and sellers are still stubborn. The housing backlog and demographic window will drive long -term demand for the right projects.
corporations, cooperatives, businesses, and other institutions as well as syndicates (laundering) are now the biggest buyers of Condo's in Metro Manila.. They would buy dozens of units and some wont hesitate to rent it out.. That's why newly developed condos would sell out immediately but would remain an unfilled residencecfor months...
How can a product be overpriced if it has low demand?Why will they build condos then sell them at an overprice when they knew that almost no one will buy them?Are these builders/investors stupid which i`m sure did a feasibility studies before throwing millions of pesos building those condos.I have a 2br condo in BGC since i got it in 2016 i never had problem finding tenants.
I observe it also in house and lot you can see the price for a very far province that atleast far from the CBD is as expensive per square inch as the one in the NCR. And to make give it justificaton they will claim only these few minutes to BGC, Makati and other CBD if you leave 2 am
For a 3rd world country, the real estate market in the Philippines has become excessively inflated. It's crucial for the government to recognize and tackle this problem. In fact, in some areas of North America, property prices are surprisingly lower than PH.
I bought a lot in Fairview for P1M (fx rate is $1=25) in 1998. I sold it in 2019 for P4.5M net (fx rate is $1=50) after 20 years. Approximately my average rate of return is only 4-5% mainly because of the exchange rate. If I've invested this money with S&P 500, my average rate of return would have been 9-10% so I basically lost money.
Problems with condos are very limited market options. Its basically you either live in it or leased it. Leased on the other hand need to have adequate market accessibility and has to provide better options on why you need to buy it. Like is the condo close to the things you love to frequent?
How about the additional 6% charge to buy a condo there and extra fees. Ridiculous. Good luck if you are buying one.
The vacancy rates can be estimated by bribing checking Lazada and Shopee deliveries.
We already knew this was bubble long time ago when Cebu condos popping up like crazy
There is an alternative. Medical tourism. Which should be supported by the government.
lol. Was this a joke? Patients queue up all day just to make it into a group ward. The public health system is near collapse.
I may consider buying one if the price is low enough.
John, we would love if you can build this database.
The real estate bubble in China has burst, and a similar situation could occur in the Philippines. 🤔🤨☺️
I don't think it will be the same as China because the absence of debt.
@@JohnDang808 / absence of debt/ ???!! expound pls
@@abrahamdslI think he's implying properties were bought with cash. No debt from a developer like Evergrand.
ayala dmci smdc pockets are so deep they can easily service the development cost amd can afford to keep inventory for 10 years
@JohnDang808 I'm grateful for that. Yes, the Central Bank of the Philippines' debt management is reasonable. 🌈🌈🌈🥰🥰🥰🙏🙏🙏
The condo market in the Philippines suspiciously does not follow the laws of supply in demand.
This guy clearly didn't do careful research. The PH market is different from other countries, you can't simply compare the recipe from other real estate market. In BGC & Makati report alone, both vacancy rate are not bad at all. Large attribute of PH is from service economy, that means the buyers are not from local salary base, but from foreign worker service. The remittances alone in 2023 & 2024 is growing big annually. Most of the buyers & renters are Filipinos mixed with foreigner that earning foreign currency which mostly benefit from weak peso. Price of properties will keep going up for a long period of time and will not bubble anytime soon. New projects from developers have lots of backlog. Cleary the barometer here is not what you expect.
Same as what most real estate brokers would say... hehe.
@ryansubong7805 nope. im stock market investor and crypto trader. i read monthly company report
Again a proper test would be to look at new Condos at night
are the lights on or mostly off?
The answer to that will either support or break your credibility.
@@123pripri There are many Filipinos who are based overseas who bought condo units. Their properties are idle. They don't want them to be rented.
I have 8 cousins in US/Canada who have bought condos in McKinley and Ortigas. No tenants and it's okay for them.
I also have nephews/nieces who purchased condos in Mandaluyong and Ortigas but they are based in UK and Canada. Nobdoy stays in their properties. So, I disagree with the vlogger's basis that the dark condos are dead assets or unsold units.
@@RR52517 And u think overseas people buying condo without ever using it is sustainable, because? How many people think of buying a condo and holding it for years and just barely use it is a good investment??
Great analysis, thank you! Just a quick off-topic question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
Damm,😮
Hi John, what do you think of condominium market in Cebu?
After the pandemic many workers like who were renting out in the city chose to move back to the provinces after transitioning to work from home. Living in the province costs so much lower than in the city plus life quality is better. I now have my own space compared to before when I was living with strangers I met in the internet just to afford living in a condo
condos in the philippines is very expensive!…even in the remote ares like quiapo, tondo, the price are skyrocketed.
This is true, though. Most of these are just purchased for AirBnB rentals.
The real estate property to invest are house and lot. That is an asset that wont depreciate, unlike condos which depreciates after 20+ years. I can see people renting more into house and lots, it also provides bigger space for movement, better privacy, better security and cheaper rent per square meter.
Good luck with the maintenance of a house in the Philippines.
Thats factually false------Most house and lots, are hundreds of kilometres away from the train stations and shopping malls and schools and hospitals and factories and offices ,which means far from places providing jobs---------------------------and hence extremely inconvenient to stay at those house and lot----------------------while most condo units are next door or a few metres away from train stations and shopping malls and schools and hospitals and factories and offices -------------which means just next door or few metres from places where jobs are located
new condos like DMCI fairlane have their balcony light controlled by the building so that at night all the balcony lights are on, thus giving the illusion of full occupancy (sakit sa mata pag natutulog ako). may halong panlilinlang!
This is real bad in Tagaytay smoke town. They are asking crazy prices still. 😂
sad reality..i have 10 condos and some are already paid off..i am into cash flow but the rental rate went down but the prices are sky high even with pre-selling.
Price/Rent ratio is very different all over manila.. BGC is highest, makati.. then steep drop off the rest of city.
Great, cant wait! I will buy when it goes down! I love it when the people cry "The sky is falling"Grate time to make money!
The prices are more ridiculous in the provinces. Why will anyone buy a condo for 12m when they can buy a full house across the street for 6m with 4x the space?
As part of the working class, I will say that getting a house even a condo unit is too impossible. Take a look for example SMDC, they sell a small rent to own condo unit with 300k down payment equivalent to 5,115 US Dollar for a 20 sqm. On top of that you have to pay additional charges. Prices of condominiums are too expensive for us to buy it that is why these developers are targetting foreigners to invest or buy their condominiums.
i actually noticed this when they first ban the POGOs, i knew it spelled trouble for the condominium market, and it will domino on to the construction sectors as well, its very worrisome cause im in the construction sector as well, i hope the bubble doesn't burst but just slowly corrects itself
The issue is the furnished and unfurnished are the same price. As an American I see no benefits in buying a condo. Which is sad for Filipino who has the money to do so. Its a lost
banning pogo is a super bad move.
it isnt the rootcause of the crimes like what some politician claim... and now that they banned it, the crimes still persist!
I will and forever be a buyer of condos. These people who calls for crash to come in the future are the ones trying to time the market. Just keep this in mind when making your decision if you should invest. Has the prices of everything you consume has gone up or down in the last 10 years? 20 years or 30 years? If it did, so will condominiums. And if a crash comes, I guess it’s time to buy my next property.
you should look at Hong kong and China if that's what you think.
@ Philippines is not China nor other countries. But non the less, if prices of properties go down, I’m buying cause guess where the princess are headed.
@@MarkCZ26 no philippines is not China but Megaworld is a China builder that builds condo in Philipppines thatuses the same business practice as China. Same pre selling tactics and same way using debt to build. If Megaworld falls due to no one buying pre selling, all those who bought those will be affected too which will in return affect other condo prices around it. Yes it won't be as bad as China but it will be as bad as Hong kong though. But go ahead and ignore this at your peril.
@ yes I’ll take the risk at my own peril which I have since the very first property I bought 22 years ago. Ived bought and sold the past 2 decades and grew a great side hustle out of it. I’m an investor, and if it goes down, it’s an opportunity in the Philippines.
at bgc - its property valuation, i work at a bank, the rich bought units, yes UNITS. with no intention to rent it out or live in it for the short term. they use it as a collateral to run their businesses or buy another unit.
recipe for a bubble indeed.
Rental yields have stayed flat for like 10 years! For a good investment, my rule of thumb is the rent has to cover at least the monthly mortgage for the balance of DP. Based on experience, a prominent developer in BGC allegedly appears to manipulate the market by preventing investors from flipping by pasalo or assumption at lower rates just to keep the prices inflated.
Rental yields staying flat the past ten years is good news to me as the rental yield in Metro Manila in 2014 was 8.5%
The title trick?
they need to correct the market but i think another factors its ok for them to repossed the property that they sell it to the buyer. bec they can sell it with less value or maybe brand new with CURRENT MARKET VALUE. so it means they can get much higher sales than previous buyer.
example 2018 price condo 12m 2 br then yr 2022 they repossessed it since they have a in house contractor make it more luxurious or premium if not bare unit to make it looks good then check market value 18m tada less expense etc 1m net profit of 5m. now the good thing is they can get another dp and other advances with new better interest income. youll see this with real estate with in house financing setup
Repo prices make no sense here. The bank has already received roughly 50% of the selling price from the original purchaser, then they repo it and turn around and sell it for full price.
It really does not make sense. The prices of condos in BGC are as high as condos in America.
Condos are not anymore a lucrative investment if you're talking about rental or even Airbnb short term rentals. The rental rates 7-8years ago for a studio unit are pretty much the same with present rates, while prices of the condo units have doubled compared 6-8yrs ago. So it means if you bought a unit at current prices, you will have your ROI in 20years, compared to 10years if you bought it 7yrs ago with the same rental rates.
Housing in general and condos in particular in major cities in the Philippines are overpriced.
this is for Manila condo market, or does it parlay to home prices as well? how about Cebu?