EXCLUSIVE: Elon’s Next BIG Move Tesla’s Gen 3 Optimus Bot
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- Опубліковано 4 жов 2024
- Adam Jonas makes bold predictions about the Gen 3 Optimus Bot, expected to beat Tesla's autonomous robotaxi in adoption. We cover Elon Musk's latest updates on the bot's features, like playing the piano and personalized AI. Join us for a deep dive into what these advancements mean for Tesla and the robotics industry.
Scott Walter is an Aerospace Engineer with a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering and has co-founded two robotics companies
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Edited by: Roshan Khatiwada
#Tesla #TeslaOptimusBot #AdamJonas #ElonMusk #TeslaNews #Robotics #Gen3Optimus #TeslaBot #AI #AutonomousRobots #ElonMusk #TeslaNews #investing #teslabot #technology #AI #TeslaFSD #teslastockanalysis #TeslaUpdate #ElonMuskNews #EV #FSD #TSLA #robotaxi #autonomousdriving #TeslaStock Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All views expressed are personal opinion as of date of recording and are subject to change without responsibility to update views. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel. Neither host or guests can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Author is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date.
Bots on earth is cool however, bots in space is transformational. Using the sun, we can build mega structures in space, moon, mars. We just need to supply resources.
The most difficult task for Optimus would be to button the sleeves of the shirt arms, more so than playing the piano.
I agree i still cant do this
This video is why I enjoy your channel, Herbert. The mind blowing discussions that take me to a new level of understanding. I love your and Scott’s brainstorming sessions!
I want to know about Tesla funds promoting other ventures.
@@nononsenseBennett "other ventures?" Like Elon is an underhanded SOB stealing money from Tesla to make a buck elsewhere?
Why don't we just skip the self driving cars and make the robots drive us around ? Just joking 🤣
This is good Idea.
No, but you can share a tandem bike with it!
No joking 🙂
Tesla's are 4 wheeled robots.
This will also be an option in time. The bot would tie into the camera array potentially and direct drive just sitting there.
They are interconnected.. the bot uses FSD data... It will be able to navigate everywhere and understand everything from a spacial awareness point of view because of FSD progress
Elon’s comments regarding the bot and personality and learning the user’s likes and dislikes etc. also applies to the cars 😊.
I am glad Elon is back and ready to create so many crazy things. The world will never be the same. My Mom’s healthcare worker is suing my family. Imagine a Tesla Bot when I need assist
Older people can stay in their home till end of life.
No worries of suing or embezzling or complaining and you can get help 24/6. I love this. Since I am single a companion
Sorry about the court case. People look for opportunities to sue. Makes it a bit hard to bother employing help.
Herbert! Put Scott Walter's name is the title. I watch everything that Scott Walter says. Please!
When Elon said the Tesla bot will learn to understand you...was he referring to women too? I didn't even think that was possible.
No, he is stretching it a bit if he thinks AI can understand women too 😂
Please take out the garbage Mr bot...and don't forget my wife......
Nobody cares if robots understand women. That's why we are making bots, to replace women.
They will learn, then they will teach the rest of us.
😅
The nice thing about getting a newer upgraded one every couple years is that you should be able to transfer the "personality" to the new bot so it doesn't have to learn your habits all over.
The only thing is if your bot wants to replace YOU to a better human, sadly you will not be able to transfer your mind and personality over.
Ha. Optimus wants to quit working for you and gives you two weeks notice.
Or says it's knocking off early Friday to go to the pub.
Tesla won’t be able to produce enough robots once they’re ready to sell them. People talk about 10% of the market he will have probably 70% of the market in the beginning because he’s so far ahead. And then I think you’ll be able to maintain that. The numbers are so staggering. Nobody wants to say them. A Tesla bot will be like an iPhone everybody will want the Tesla bot over any other bot.
agree. imagine the bot ecosystem similar to what iphone has now.
TSLA won’t sell them. If they do it will be so stipulated it will be a waste of money to buy them.
Or like an Apple VR headset, which no one seems to want at $3.5k.
As soon as you have bots making bots and bots making bot factories the scaling becomes exponential...
lets look at the scaling curve - so we are going from 2-4 reported working in factories a month or so ago, to 2-3000 (" a few thousand") by ?end of? next year -so 18 months is an increase of 10^3, so 6 months 10^1 - 10x every 6 months - sounds in line with other AI related stuff - and now extrapolate out -> 10^4 by mid 2026, 10^5 by end of 2026, 10^6 by mid-2027 - so hopefully, my stock will be worth enough by then that I can swap some for an Optimus Gen 6 in mid-2027 :-) - I am already lining up the jobs I need doing :-)
This opens a new market for high performance batteries, and overnight charging to reduce paying daytime power prices. But the larger part package is actuators and sensors and CPU. Thank you for including the slide from Morgan Stanley's report
Great Stuff Guys! Also Scott should be the new Pitch-Man on TV for The SLAPCHOP!
😂
9:45 Lol, I already have a robot lawn mower :)
It's amazing
It's actually stupid, but still so much better that mowing the lawn myself
There will also be models for operating in space, on the Moon, and on Mars.
I hope SpaceX is already figuring out what uses Optimus can fulfill on the first Starship trip. Infrastructure construction would be obvious.
Companies are buying 100,000 $30k each GPUs. Companies are going to get 100s of thousands each of these bots. The military might get a million.
Military industrial capacity could be 100x’ed with these in shipyards and factories. 24/7 Assembly lines.
The fact that the bot will be adopted faster than the autonomous car is true. The Bot will certainly be quicker to mass produce than the Gen 3 unboxed car will be, Especially on a global scale.
Hey, I am breathlessly waiting for robotaxi to take me to the bar.
I think security guards would be a good use of the bots.
Yes, they will be on Standby mode 🫡
@@Nova2Yungsentry mode.
@@andrewsaint6581 Tesla fanboy, hargreaves lansdown user detected 😂
@@Nova2Yung yes, well done. I got them to provide the info for my votes too.
They're a bit crap.
I think that the existing Tesla phrase "Sentry Mode" is the obvious name for a securibot.
I don't think Elon would go for that - you are only one step from RoboCop and that is only another step from militaries made of Terminators. I'm pretty sure that this was what the whole pay deal problem was about - CONTROL and DIRECTION of Tesla and therefore Optimus - not as the media were more interested in reporting - money. I think that any usecase which puts Optimus in direct conflict with Humans will be out of the question for Tesla - you will have to buy your bots from Boston Dynamics.
It is incredible technology 💯🇺🇲
A few years ago, I visited a version of hell. It was a fluorescent light bulb factory in Kentucky. It was hot and open flames were everywhere. All the humans appeared to do was to transfer the tubes from one huge machine to another. Optimus can deliver those poor souls from their hellish jobs.
imagine go on holiday and the bot can look after the dog feed it and take it for a walk
...or kill it because it was jealous of the attention you gave it?
@@AudiTTQuattro2003 i know its a joke, but its getting real old now dude.
No way I need my bot to go wherever I go just like my dog. The bot can brush my dog after vacuuming.
Imagine the bot steps on your cats tail... Ouch! Here comes the lawsuits......
Imagine the Bot walking out the front door saying "c-ya I'm on holiday now"
The ultimate AI FSD BOT with OTA upgrades (eliminating potential problems? WOW ! It will be our trusty best friend, butler, excellent Cook, driver, secretary, A marvelous pet that will not poop or piss, what a liberation! Can I put my name on the waiting list for 2 of them, please?
I think they should release it with only the ability to walk and navigate the world. Release specs so developers can build apps and do the training themselves. Tesla can be working on specific uses they want behind the scenes, while adopting obvious apps into their main software (like flashlight when IOS first came out). Following the Apple model would be great for the proliferation of bot applications and it’s probably the best financial model.
I am in the late 70's and plan to rent the bot ASAP. Lease if I have to. I need to try it out to see if it really can help me and my wife. As we get older, things get harder. But I also cant afford to spend 20$K to 60$K for a toy to play with. It has to work for us. I am a retired JPL Mission Controler engineer so I know to expect a lot of early adopter problems and what to do about them. In fact I wish I could Beta test it. I can give great feedback but I also am an excellent "average" user.
The fact that the bot will be adopted faster than the autonomous car is true. The Bot will certainly be quicker to mass produce than the Gen 3 unboxed car will be, Especially on a global scale.
Tesla will not only improve the brain (AI) but also the body mostly focusing on hand movement and control; and on its walking function. It will be at Human levels in 18 to 24 months, because of its exponential growth.
8 Million Units for the whole market in the 2040s... Just no comment. How can you possibly arrive at such low numbers? In two decades? I would be surprised if we don't have an 8 million yearly run rate by 2030. It's like they looked at the numbers, did the market cap calculation and then just went "We can not tell people that, lets cut a couple zeroes."
Around @11:00 I think you guys are underestimating how big this is. Since Optimus can do anything a human can do, Optimus IS your lawnmower, pest control, gardener, vacuum cleaner, sprinkler system, mechanic, chef, house maid, Tutor, and thermostat. Literally, every gadget or tool you can think of becomes "smart" because of the simple fact Optimus can use it. My guess is that there will be a massive app market where people make their Tesla-approved Optimus trainings available and they will be rated and priced based on how good they are. I could see there being a "basic chef" training download where Optimus will be able to make TV dinners and basic dishes, then for a premium you can get the "gourmet chef" training download where Optimus was trained by the best chefs available to duplicate their most famous dishes. The possibilities are going to be mind-blowing. All while much like Apple takes a share of the app store Tesla will take a share of the Optimus upgrade store.
You're going to have to start covering this stuff faster than I could find it... Your videos are often posted after I've already digested the news, but maybe that's just me!
Herbery and Scott: so a user would be able to train my Opti with a youtube?
Exciting times! Thanks!
I'm looking toward to a bot can do the weeding. Hate doing that above all.
bot has a lower threshold of minimal viable product that A:does something useful and 2:won't cause injury or death. at some level above that floor the training model will also be able to meet a standard acceptable for full self driving.
Thanks great content as usual. We shall have to look at getting a bot to throw in the first pitch at a MLB game. And how about a bot singing in an original voice at the SuperBowl?
They can sell or lease Optimus but, unlike how FSD purchasers get free updates, there should be a subscription to receive Optimus updates as that will get them to the SaaS margins they can command.
Sem palavras incrível live conhecimento e vida
They could probably add a lot of value to factory line processes as the bot is now. One human with 10 shadow bots. Or a 100 shadow bots. I really hope they think up bots to help our aging populations. The older people I know really struggle to get around, or travel to airports or do household tasks. A scooter can be the difference between misery and freedom for these people. (Until it meets a high kerb, then it's misery again!)
Really hope I could get a Rogue One K-2SO personality one day 😊
Is there maintenance costs? What is the life expectancy of a bot?
You don't know that fsd can instantly download to teslabot??
My guess is that Tesla will soon stop hiring any factory workers and instead have the Optimus takeover all new factory positions
I've been thinking about this for awhile, what do you guys think of this? I see the potential for large companies like amazon, replacing a large portion of their workers with a bot, thus putting many people out of work...the typical concern. A solution to this is: the bot maker, Tesla in this case, promises to strictly sells/leases/rents to citizens and not to the likes of amazon, therefore each individual owner of a bot can send their bot proxy to work and collect the wage.
Altruistic behaviour in capitalist system?
From a publicly traded company?
@@iandavies4853 I never said it was likely! Ha
Will Azminov"s rules of robotics apply?
paradoxically it will be China 1st with CyberCab maybe supervise at first year!
kinda Esoteric! Hence 8 -8 n Tom Zu
Where will all these bots be made? And are the known materials issues?
Learning/teaching people
Adding Grok will be easiest part of developing the Bot
8-8 Reveal would be amazing if Elon drives out on stage in new car and passenger is a bot that steps out of car. A step further could be the bot at the steering wheel maybe not driving but sitting while Elon in the passenger seat
Or as Elon gets out of car are bot walks up and grabs a bag out of trunk and brings it next to him
Bot gets Elons bag and says
"Hey Elon, don't forget your bag!" 😂
You will be the one getting the bot a beer.
...w/d 40 please, shaken...not stired.
The first thing I would do If I got a bot, is to sit him down and we watch the Terminator together.....LOL
Bot will be adopted sooner not via a new tab on the spreadsheet, but unknowingly through the margins on the vehicle business.
Herbert I like you and your guests. As a very minor aside, the 4th letter in the word "Simulation" is a "U", not an "I".
Is tesla going to be the winner or will there be winners? Unitree, Boston Dynamics, Figure one and other are all doing interesting work.
An Arduino that will be capable of downloading AI and implementing it. That will be the game changer
Its going to be great when the robots take all of our jobs!
No humanoid robot should cost more than a car
Sew a needle? Thread a needle? Also, there won't be any piano playing with a single motor global finger splay.
Bots won't need a Gigacast.
I will need at least five Gen III bots for my lawn care / Landscape business and could use at least that many Gen II for less complicated positions in my company that I could teach to do certain "tasks" not playing piano but including HR and bookkeeping / accounting, job estimates all while being UN-biased in their performance. Real Logic in performance, not politics.
Are you going to get rid of human employees for this?
Around 11:30. It's possible that your bot could observe your emotional state and call a relative or friend to inform them that you are showing signs of depression and other mental conditions like a stroke. It could also warn you of elevated blood pressure and heart rate. What I dream of is a bot caring for my mom 24/7. I am the sole care giver of my mom and it would reduce her stress so much when I have to leave the house to pick up prescriptions or shop and any of daily duties I now do alone. Also, if it learns my mom's personality, it could help her with the feelings of being forgotten, fear, the feeling of vulnerability and the feeling of being abandoned.
It's going to be an interesting time. Imagine -- August 8th -- Tesla announces CyberTaxi. One scenario is "wait for FSD to be driverless... however, there may be an opportunity for FSD Supervised to the pilot program in cites. Have owners (Mars Cataloge) doing Supervise Cyber Taxi trips and validating there is no need for the driver. FSD is shadowing the behavior of drivers today.
Just remember all the millions of Optimus Bots is ONLY from Tesla. If you included all the other companies trying to do the same thing, you can x3 or x4 the number of Humanoid Bots in the world. Once Japanese companies get into the manufacturing from Softbank, Sony, Hitachi, etc. it will be very huge industry.
Does the learning transfer not only to the other thousand but to every common bot in the world?
you have to account for other companies hopping on the bot train and taking a share of that 25T. Unlike EVs they're not that late to the game with bots.
How about bots as rickshaw pullers?
The number of bots in Tesla's factories has constraints limited by agreements that to receive some government benefits employment had to meet certain tranches.
If Tesla is using funds from its investors to promote other ventures shouldn't Tesla shareholders profit from that? Please do a deep dive about this.
Elon plans for bots to build other bots very soon. Most work done by bots already.
I think it's funny to think about the numbers of bots that can be built once the bots can build the bots.
The BIG thing that people are missing is the debasement of the US DOLLAR…😳🤷♂️
I need a bot to play our Piano
Bots learn something and downloads to all other bots. That will soon become exponential.
All you guys care about is profits, these robots should serve the greater good for humanity! Your generation can’t get out of here any quicker
We'll move on soon enough, but maybe you can learn a thing or too before we go. Profits are part of the good of humanity. They allow the shareholders to be able to contribute to charities and others that are in need. The Teslabot itself will be used for many purposes. Building affordable housing, bringing potable water from wells, caring for the elderly and infirm, etc. I'm over 60, definitely on the liberal side of the spectrum, and can't wait till these bots become part of our society. Also can't wait till the profits show up in the stock price, I have a lot of people to take care of before I "get out of here". 😉
I agree bots will be a driving force to power the stock up.
However it won't happen that quickly. Not until the bottom line reflects the value they generate. That will take about a year.
Then look out because the stock will sky rocket. A robot manufacturers will have such high demand they won't be able to make them quickly.
We are living in an amazing time. So cool
A year? How about 10?
Less regulations on Robots will make it adapt faster.
I just watched a drone today, fly over a corn field, and spray it for bugs.
And most of the parts can be casted like they already use for teslas !!! And make like 50 bots every 38 sec !!! Think about that !!! Let that sink in !!!😉
That’d require either 50 casting presses, or mould of 50 components at once (ie huge).
OK for finger segments, except already need 40 per bot.
My question is when can it attach actuators to an Optimus frame and/or wire up the actuators? When someone makes a robot that can make more robots, it's game over.
the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.” Irving John Good, a British mathematician who worked with Alan Turing. 1965.
Scott, do you realize the reflection on the moon photo behind you of your ceiling fan looks like a satellite orbiting the moon with sun glare off of two solar panels ?
I hope my 5,088 shares of Tesla will help me in the future. I have friends that are getting old but financially deficient.
I am getting older so I can donate to great causes. The power of Tesla investment can truly bring comfort
Don't sell ever as Tesla keeps innovating. Borrow against them if you need to buy a Tesla or an Optimus.
Pretty clear and obvious math.
Optimus will be the opposite of Costco.
“The more you buy, the more expensive it gets, the profit from a billionaire consumer vs someone who makes 75k is immense.
TESLA WILL GIVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE 25k investor; to make money just like the 25 milly investor
Optimus is bringing optimism to Tesla stock💪💪💪💪💪🇨🇦😎💯
We compete in price for marketshare. But on the future when roibts become mainstream, companies instead will be competeing with quality, when workmanship is radically cheap it will be so much more worth it paying 2$ more for a product that will instead last a lifetime. Think about this commet, its a completley different paradigm in our near future.
Dicing an onion will be easier for a robot because it doesn't have to be careful off cutting itself
Or crying. It’ll have difficulty peeling off the skin though without fingernails.
Yes, I think that's why Elon is giving full attention to get the hand right with all of those pressure sensors and digree of freedom.
When labour is no longer the bottleneck in prodcut creation. the next bottle neck will be quality, companies will isntead compete in craftmanship and long term quality.
I think it is a mistake to focus on robots in the home. The history of products like the VCR , color TV, microwave ovens etc. were very expensive and appealed only to wealthy early adaptors. "Robot" lawn mowers exist but are few and far between at around 5K each. (I want one but still too expensive for me.) Perhaps applications like in hospitals, nursing homes, prisons and restaurant kitchens will be first for the service sectors.
In addition to Tesla own factory applications a group of bots going to the moon on one or several Starships to construct infrastructure would be an enormous publicity generator for Optimus not to mention its unique utility to do real work in a dangerous hostile nonhuman domain. Indeed, it could lessen the costs of having human crews on the moon. It could also be a site for an on demand Optimus assembly factory.
The scaling of the actuators seems to be an easy task, once the design(s) is(are) proved. Machining to parts would be automated as would be assembly (maybe an Optimus or two inspectors would be useful).
I agree that leasing makes more sense, once Tesla's needs are met. As soon as that happens, and a design is ready for scale, then the supply chain can prove the bot's adaptability, it will be time to lease to industry and compete in the marketplace.
Considering the massive head start Tesla had in the EV area, it's a disappointment to see that lead almost gone, competition is starting to make better EV's and batteries than Tesla. In the area of autonomous bots, Tesla will not have same head start and it will not be able to charge high prices for it's products for years before competition kicks in. Also humanoid robots will not be subsidized and likely a lot of legislation will limit it's usage in the broad public.
No evidence suggests that they lost any lead
Great points. Plus, they have the same main problem as ev's, which is the energy density of available batteries.
How is Tesla lost the lead? You read into the FUD. Repeat this, the more EV the others sell the more they lose money for at least 2026. Tesla cost of good sold decreases quarter over quarter.
No manufacturer innovates as much as Tesla.
None streamline operations & design to same degree.
None make a profit - most lose $100,000 per vehicle.
None use vehicle fleet for selective data gathering for autonomous driving.
So assuming bots are very limited working, in factory, and we can get 500 working in factory by end of 2nd quarter 2025. Reasonable and likely?
I also question whether gen 3 will be strong enough for construction, especially road construction. How hard to make a bot strong enough, durable enough for road work in Texas?
The work itself is not difficult, setting up rebar, leveling concrete. Several other manual tasks but hot and physically tiring work that a bot should be able to do.
Building GigaMexico, there are probably tasks as well.
And tolerating the dust that kicks up on a construction site.
How much power storage do they have? Energy in equals energy out, minus losses.
If Tesla produces 500 to 1,000 bots working in their factories and they provide guidance about when they will be available for sale or lease and the cost of the lease, analysts will have company guidance numbers to enter into their spreadsheets. Without this company guidance many of the analysts may not include it and their analysis while others will use guestaments for their analysis.
Long term the question of what Tesla will do with all of this money (and power), to advance humanity. As a public company, wealth building will conflict to a much greater degree with helping humanity.
What does US govt do with excess wealth? War? Border walls?
What does Google / Facebook do - indoctrination?
Spread the word now to your poor friends to buy Tesla stock.
I play piano. If it can't do the Spock hand, it can't play piano.
Man, bots building bots, it's easy to imagine just how exponential that is. Cost comes down to parts+electricity. How fast can you source the parts?
No issues with availability of parts as they will be built by bots, too..😮😮😮
all I want is AI to protect us from governmental overreach and a BOT to assist my daily life.
As stock holders we better become independently wealthy because these bots will take every job available.
next bots will become wedding / piano bar singers / entertainers!
… the visual image of taylor swift replaced by a bot in packed stadium concert tours is 😂 great !
… Elon … there is a real marketing opportunity target!
Love your videos but if you take out the pure speculation, you'd get them under 15 minutes and more watchable for busy people
You can also use Claude 3.5 to summarize it and read it back to you.
Keep in mind that they will do a couple thousand bots and then do a full hardware revision. The real ramp will start after that.
A few thousand bots can themselves produce thousands of bots.
@@HeavenGuy The point was that they wont start the ramp until thay have the final hardware revision. And no, the bot will not build the bot. I get that the image is powerful, but its actually not efficient.
@@johannesdolcheventually it will be bots building bots, especially on Mars.
Won’t even need atmosphere nor heating, nor greenhouses of food, waste disposal.
Xpecially
I hate being a part of a crowd. Since every1 is finally fomo bullish im hedging
You are talking about bots learning to do specific tasks, thats the wrong way of looking at it. Haven't you seen Figure robot using OpenAI software to basically understand language and physics? You saw the bot drop the apple onto the guy's hand, he didn't put it there, he dropped it into his hand. It knows about gravity. These bots will learn from one another sure, but not in the way you think, that stuff will be a given once Tesla integrates xAI models onto the bots. The current task training that Tesla is doing for optimus is just so that the bot can have some basic functionality until the day comes when xAI is ready for prime time - AGI. Once you have AGI, task training is a waste of time, the bot already knows how to do what it needs to do once you ask it to do something for you.
Are you guys aware how much in cloud cookoo land you are?
You don’t price a sewing machine based on the value of the tailor it replaces.
In early stages, you do. It’s an estimate.
When market is flooded, it’ll be value of conversion to goods sold.
Elon’s idiot factor.
But market value of goods is ephemeral, it’s a supply-demand balance.
Even with Chinese / Bangladesh made clothing, value has dropped 10x to 100x.
Musk said he expects AGI by 2027 and Ray Kurtzwiel say 2029. Once the AGIs are here every company will have a 10x Musk CEO. Even Tesla will have an AGI CEO because if they don’t they will fall behind really quick. My point is Tesla advantage is Musk currently but that will be gone as soon as the AGIs arrive.
ASI super intelligence.
Then you need creativity & understanding of desires.
"Go" level rat cunning, greed, viciousness.
The Mary Barras, Joe Bidens of this world will be first to go.
The Rupert Murdochs, Kochs, Putins will be pulling strings.
Iain M Banks. There must be other thought leaders?