Adam Robinson - Strategy for Investing and for Life
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- Опубліковано 21 вер 2024
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Today in a podcast style episode I welcome my friend Adam Robinson who has had possibly the most interesting career of anyone I know. He was a teenage Chess prodigy who trained with Bobby Fischer as Fischer prepared to play Boris Spassky for the 1972 world championship - in what has gone on to be known as The Match of The Century. He was an undergrad at The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and later earned a law degree at Oxford University. He cracked the SAT and other standardized tests launching the Princeton Review Company - which he later sold. Adam is an Artificial Intelligence pioneer, a quantitative trader, a New York Times best-selling author, and an all-round master of strategy. His company Robinson Global Strategies provides macro research to some of the world’s most successful hedge funds. Adam's newest book How Not to be Stupid is one of the very few books to be endorsed by Warren Buffett.
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this link worked for me, the description one does not, you may want to check that
I just wanted to say that I enjoyed the informative and rye slightly sarcastic monologs, but I love these interviews and feel i'm getting a lot from them. So thank you. :-)
One of two mailing lists I absolutely love and read all the time, very recommended!
Investing does not need to be complicated. In fact, the simpler the better in my opinion. I'm retired and did so at age 42 with about $1.1M for two people. We had an advisor from Morgan Stanley in our corner. Maxed 401k for many years and then saved additional in index funds in taxable account. Our rate of return has been around 10% percent per year in the taxable account over the last 10 years.
Agreed. I have some fun money in RH but the big majority is managed by Morgan Stanley. I’m actually outperforming them this year but the value they’ve added in other ways over the last several is well worth it for me.
That's amazing congrats. I grew up in a cash only savings environment and a mother who has a small 401k saving. I’m just now learning about the stock market creeping towards 30 so I would appreciate more information about your advisor.
She goes by Nancy Magaret Delony I suggest you look her up. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
I just Googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I'm going to send an email to her and let you know how it goes. Thanks for sharing
I use vanguard personal advisor services. They charge 0.3% a year.
I could tell you what he has me invested in, but AGE matters so much. I am 52 and retired. So I have stocks and bonds. Stocks are in "Vanguard total stock market fund", and some in "Vanguard international fund". There might be a third similar one.
I'd have to look at my bond fund. For you at age thirty, mostly stocks is advised.
I'm here for the rap. This is a famous rap channel.
I was just over at DeDunking channel on the "debates" in archaeology & held Dan & Patrick responsible for my dry cleaning bill re coffee spiting moments & citing Patrick's channel as world class Rap channel
I’m not sure how he does it, but Patrick’s channel consistently has the perfect amount of news about rap music and rapping
White pimp hat, Adam knew what he was in for.
And beefs, don’t forget about the beefs
It concerns me that this rap channel is slowly having bits of financial news creep in.
Love a good collab between great rap artists.
Fo' shizzle!
Muy buena mezcla rítmica!
AI is just non biological confabulation
The most popular investment portfolio strategies include diversification, where you spread investments across different asset classes to manage risk. Another is the growth strategy, focused on capital appreciation through high-risk, high-reward assets. Income-oriented strategies target regular income from dividend stocks or bonds. Finally, there's the value strategy, seeking undervalued assets for potential long-term gains.
According to Warren Buffett, dividends are less valuable for growing businesses and more suitable for established ones. Investing in companies that offer dividends might be seen as parking capital for steady returns, especially for those relying on portfolio income. This approach resembles bond investing, serving as a means of generating consistent earnings.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to over $750k.
Recently, I've been considering the possibility of speaking with consultants. I need guidance because I'm an adult, but I'm not sure if their services would be all that helpful.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Rebecca Nassar Dunne” and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
This reference seems valid.. Just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, over 15 years of experience is certainly striking! very much appreciate this.
the white top hat and multi-finger rings, this guy can rap
Knuckle dusters man! Punk's a pro!
😂😂😂
Ya boys dripping hard!
His book should be 'How to Look Stupid'
@@Charles-hy2ek very good !
Omg. The Yo-Yo Ma thing. I did something similar way back in college. Had a calculus final and the prof said, "Don't forget to bubble in your answers on the scantron or you'll get a zero." I finished the 90-minute exam and FORGOT to bubble in my answers. It only occurred to me once I was back in my dorm what I'd done. I rushed to find my professor and miraculously caught him walking on the sidewalk in a different part of our massive campus. Thankfully he was very gracious about it, and he bubbled in the scantron in front me right there on the sidewalk (he had our exams in his bag). Never felt so relieved in my life.
So the professor was a single point of failure?
host: "Welcome to Patrick Boyle on Finance."
me: "What?! Did he change formats? I thought this was rap news channel."
30 minutes in and I can't believe the treasure trove of new information and insights abound in this conversation. Just shows the wisdom gained through experience and age.
Thank you! Experience -- and reflecting on the experience!
Patrick Boyle is the definition of calm and professional.
Can we please get a part 2?
I identify with you both heavily and found the back and forth fascinating and this loaded with tons of wisdom.
I quite enjoyed the length and youve earned the right to post such long videos.
What Im enjoying most is watching Patrick relax and have fun with his buddy ❤
"If we need so many training data for our models, than the models are not good enough!" One of the truer truth ever spoken, the AI bubble will burst with a bang, I wish I had more money to short it.
the only AI bubble is the refusal of ppl who have missed out to acknowledge it. For the big tech companies, it's a life and death situation for their relevancy, the struggle to not become myspace. Even if the big tech overspent on it in the short term, without anything to show for it. But if it in turns guarantee their continuous survival, it is worth it, and they have boatload of cash to spend.
But hey, I could very well be wrong, and short it all you want, that's why we have a market :)
AI is not going away; you’re naive to think that.
what is the alternative? continuing the status quo? advancements in wealth are all about diminishing returns. ML models are already good enough for some tasks. That continues the trend of technology gradually reducing the human labor needed per unit of productivity.
adam is amazing man . he is not rude or arrogant and has every reason to be he reminds me of mick jagger cool guy gonna get his book for sure thanks patrick great show man
Most kind brother, most kind!
One thing I love about your show is that you are truly intelligent, well spoken, and very witty. You always have me laughing and have fantastic data points.
One of the most important videos on youtube this year. Very informative.
Many thanks!
I'm absolutely blown away by Adams looks and charisma. A human version of Tigger (from Winnie the Pooh), the cat from Alice in Wonderland but also with a hint of super villain ! This is ment in absolutely respect and awe - what an amazing character !!!! ❤ When I get to be zooooopa rich and can cherry pick people I want to meet for lunch, Adam would definitely be top 5.
Guffaw!! Huge smile!
I listened to this on Spotify but came here to leave a comment. At the end you told Adam that an hour and forty five minutes was enough for your listeners and I couldn't believe that so much time had passed. I wanted to just keep listening, this was fantastic.
Thanks Stev!
You know shits gonna be good once Adam had to refer to Hegel to get a point off whilst explaining something about learning the wrong lesson from history and yoyo ma forgetting his instrument
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Thanks Patrick. I thoroughly enjoyed listening to Adams insightful perspectives.
Thank you Robert!
I believe a lot of comments will be about not forgetting key (or shutting gas etc.) 😂
To improve effectivity of checking things, the japanese way of " physically point 👉 and check ✔️" is good. You see train station staff doing that a lot.
I could watch/listen to you two talk for hours. Please have him back soon
Patrick is always insightful, we had a blast!
This is actually how phishing emails work. They tell you something to try to make you panic and get you to fixate on the thing, instead of thinkibg about wait a second does this make sense.
A well know variation is to create a false sense of emergency in order to make you rush. Overused sale technique : " i ve got only one left in stock ", " only today", "the promotion ends in x hours", " only on black friday"
It is how most of magic tricks work. It’s called misdirection and even if you know it, it gets you pretty often.
This is how i feel about ai. It isnt realistic to automate everything and expect better results than humans
The Japanese factory safety system Adam is talking about is "Lock out / tag out" we have adopted the same system in our factories here in the west.
Off topic, if Adam was wearing a green hat and shirt , he would be the perfect " Riddler".
I thought Patrick and Adam were going to show us break dancing 💃 like at the Olympics!!
Thanks Patrick
From 🇨🇦
Thank you, Patrick. Great Guest. Great Interview. Kind Regards.
I relate right away to the "stupid zone ". I have skied my whole life, and know far and away that most injuries occur at the end of the day. So I've cut out the last hour or hour and a half and head to the lodge at 2:30 or 3 pm. I know my judgement at altitude and the physical toll at the.of the day will be definitively subpar, and the smart guy wraps it up before it's a problem
Don’t judge the man by his hat; he’s got wisdom.
I agree. Slash is a good guitarist. (Sorry. Terrible joke)
Thank you! DO judge a man by his top hat!
Yeah gave me con artist vibes.
I loved this podcast format. Great stuff Patrick!
Giving yourselves the freedom and time to pursue interesting segues that came to mind (like parenting even) was great.
Some really good life lessons in just this compact 1.5 hours.
Thanks!
Enjoyed this episode. You might be aware that error analysis is also systematically performed in pharmaceutical manufacturing. It involves ‚deviation management‘, ‚root cause analysis‘, and ‚Corrective and preventive actions‘. Manufacturing companies have whole teams working on this (by regulatory needs). Your locked-out story is a perfect example of this working.
So it is not checklists we should implement in many aspects of life, but systematic error analysis
Error analysis is a bit difficult when you don't have accurate record of events. Whenever I'm in a close call when driving, I make a point to review the dashcam footage as soon as I get to my destination. I've listened to all of the NTSB's youtube board meetings and I wish body cams were normalized on civilians.
Whether the solution to each incident is checklists or not comes down to the specific situation. An excellent application for checklists is as a reminder for how to operate a machine you are trained on but rarely use.
Thank you, I wasn't aware of this rigor in the pharmaceutical industry, it is a shame that hospitals -- the epitome of institutionalized stupidity, hospital ERROR being the 3rd leading cause of death in the United States, roughly 1000 people die EVERY DAY owing to ERROR, not we-couldn't-save-the-patient episodes, but hospital error
@@adamrobinson8351 Hospital error is caused by crazy long shifts, caused by understaffing because the AMA has an incentive to set standards excessively high to preserve the income of its members. Its why American drs make like $400k while other developed nations drs make $100k. There really isn't much you can do when the incentives are structured to create these errors. And the way the regulatory environment works, we are terrified of single mass-casualty events (eg plane or train crash) but we don't really take action when people are harmed one at a time (car crash, hospital error), even if cumulatively these small harms create the biggest danger.
Amazing conversation and great guest. When I saw that the video is 90minutes long at the beginning I had my doubts about going through it really, but with insightful conversations like this, time just passes like nothing. Great content😄
Thank you!!
Poka-yoke (fool-proofing) was the most valuable lesson I learned from lean manufacturing class I took while studying in Japan that used the Toyota Production System as its example. It has made me to mitigate possible errors beforehand if I identify something that could go wrong in a process.
53:16 "What would you need to see to tell you that you were wrong." Words to live by.
There are countless books and peer reviewed articles written on human error and decision making, along with the myriad factors that influence those processes. I am curious to read this book, but I’m not entirely sure that it will add anything to the existing literature. I’ve studied human error for a long time and nothing he said is really novel or even a different perspective. He’s just adding different names on top of the already existing taxonomy. I’m not really sure that’s a benefit. But I will await final judgment until the book comes out.
I'm at 23 minutes and a lot of this is just stuff I learned getting my Aviation degree. But many people associate systems with work and are too cool to to take an analytical approach in other aspects of their lives, so any book that helps change the broader culture is a plus.
Well, I am a doctor, and believe it or not, once I ran into a problem, and I had a bad report that managers are not convinced that I will not repeat that mistake again! I was furious, I did not know what is the problem now, I did everything recommended to mend this issue. and I didn't get out of it untill I analysed the problem in that good old scientific way, with a pen and a paper: is there a problem? what is it? what was my stance, was I wrong, how did I try to solve it>>>>AHA I was just defending myself, filled in some paperwork, took some meaningless courses>>>>now the last step was the ACTUAL problem!
Very very very inspiring. Thank you very much to both of you esp. for Mr. Robinson
For the keys issue :) I the blacksmith got rich thanks to me :)))
Bravo! Your detective work reminds me of the famous John Snow's determining the cause of the London cholera outbreak back in the mid-19th Century.
@@adamrobinson8351 Hello Mr. Robinson, I'm so honoured you replied to me :)
Adam is one of my favorite Thought Leaders of our time!
Joanne!
After you park your car, keep your car keys in your hand. After stepping out, stare at them for a second before you lock your car doors.
L
I have to do a version of this with my kids. I was left home alone and in cars all the time but it's a big no bueno now.
Active behavior can easily be forgotten even after years of practice. My fob is always in my keys and cards pouch. My pouch is always attached to my belt. I always wear the belt when I expect to be in public. This is an almost fully passive system and I have not been locked out of any vehicle or building since 2016.
This is an awesome interview! Thanks Patrick!
As someone who was working for years to study more about safety and human factors and then happened to be very exhausted, put a coffee cup and a macbook in the same bag and managed to undo the drink's lid when putting the thing down not looking at it at all I can say:
Looking forward to that book ;-)
Maaaan!!!
What a brilliant discussion!!!
Gonne try and read some of Adams books!!
Thank you both so much
Thanks Matt!
Very interesting premise. After all, it doesn't matter how much money you make, it's how much you lose that matters.
Being now in my 70's of lifelong learning, experience, observation, creativity, understanding, re-examination 24/7 365.
Never take anything for granted....
This is the most animated I have seen Patrick you can tell he is excited to be with a good friend.
Just a couple OGs, keeping it 100.
spreading truth in the streets,
Never catch em fronting.
Commodity GGGssss,
Market on they mind.
Bringing us the juice,
So we elevate our minds.
Word up. Yall better buy this MFing book when it drops frfr or yall really stupid.
Keep banging Adam & Patrick 🎉
They heard about the ops,
Coming to us with the intel.
Clancy
I have loved every one of your book videos and I hope that you are able to continue doing these. Your guest selection is very good and the discussion feels organic, but also guided. Thank you.
I believe the early error examples are due to our reliance upon external cues in stressful situations. In the case of the violin being left behind, the violinist is walking off stage without the violin because he has witnessed the audience leaving without carrying a violin. In the case of locking yourself out, you have been opening and closing doors inside your home without a key, and this behaviour tricks you into closing the front door without the key. There was a TV show with magician Darren Brown, where he asked his guest to think of an animal. He correctly guessed it was a giraffe. He then showed recorded footage of the guest travelling to the TV studio. On the that trip, the guest had been presented six images of a giraffe. The Black Monday market crash of 1987 took place on the Monday, 48 hours after the Great Storm of 1987.
This kind of psychoanalysis is interesting but doesn't present a meaningful solution. I can think of 20 different ways to Transfer, Eliminate or Mitigate violin risk and lock out risk - but most people would rather Accept the risk. And as long as your have your uber history/ the number of your local locksmith, it probably isn't a big deal to just pay a few hundred bucks during an oopsie.
The musicians all lost their instruments while in transit, there were no external cues
1:34:26 what an absolutely fascinating discussion. Loved the part about systemizing and the keys in jackets.
Normally I am here for the rap discussions, but glad that they stayed out of hot topics in hip hop this week.
Such a great conversation. I was not very familiar with either of you, but this video made me a fan of both of you. There was real wisdom and practical knowledge conveyed. Thank you both. I can’t wait for the book.
Many thanks!
Lovely interview! I really love the subject of systemic error avoidance. When you handle your friends' and family's money, it's not so much about spectacular returns, but about not burning their money.
29:19 I like the example of the keys, because it has also troubled me in my past. Better than forcing yourself to actually feel the keys in the pocket or looking at them is actually using the key to lock the door from the outside. Having several sets of keys, I once almost pulled the door closed because I did not see that the keys I was holding, was not the set to my apartment (they were for my house).
Conclusion, the check needs to block you from advancing, if not performed correctly. A simple sign will not always work. Let's not forget, one of the greatest fighter pilots of all time killed himself by not removing the control lock prior to take off...
What a great conversation! thank you!
Regarding experimenting (making changes in comic routines) Groucho Marx once said that changing ONE WORD in a routine can determine whether a joke falls flat or not.
Excelllent Podcast. Patrick, please post a link when Adam's book is available.
This was a fantastic episode!!!
You make my life better Patrick. Thank you.
Embed your lesson into a rule (here regarding getting yourself locked out): My front door (1) has an extra key lock which can also be locked from the inside. I lock it and hang the key on the knob of my other door (2). If I leave my flat via door 1, I'll have to open the key lock with the key hanging from door 2 (the key is now in my hand upon leaving). If I leave my flat via door 2, I cant help seeing the key and naturally I bring it with me 🙂
I physically check my pockets and pull my keys out before I leave and before allowing the door to close. Only been locked out one time in like 15 years of doing that.
Just replace the lock with one that you have to lock? It's not rocket science.
to me this was pure valuable education. Thanks for sharing it!
Blame that on Professor Boyle!
@@adamrobinson8351 you are both to blame for stealing my focus for over an hour
Hello Patrick great video, would love listening to you again
You just know that Patrick would be a fantastic dinner party guest.🙂
Thanks! Will buy the book on release.
One thing that we should really do is periodically re-evaluate our strategies/policies/rules in order to not get stuck in local minima and end up limiting ourselves. Especially the oldest policies we crafted when we were more naive. It can be difficult to even identify them once they are very engrained
Not just local minima, brother, endlessly changing circumstances!
Maybe a guest episode with Rory Sutherland? I think you'd enjoy the discussion and we'd enjoy the spectacle!
I love it, bring over more of your cool friends.
Thanks Patrick for this very interesting interview!
this was fantastic especially to trading if someone have the system some of problems still comes up first rules ,as he explained we can breach rule because of being impatient with satisfying inner conciousness it will work . and secondly is same related to being impatient we forget the rules as he said because we have no checklist so rules of games are we should do practise and folowing them so that all the rules should come layer after layer
Thank you Patrick! Very thoughtful
1:20:00 - when you're really angry, count to ten. When you're angry, count to 100. If you can decipher a minor inconvenience from an impending hindrance... Your "anger" or physiologically stimulating / exciting response, is a resource programmed (nurtured attitudes) by you. Even the origin of your thoughts can be adjusted by the conscious mind (alcohol, aromas, comfort or discomfort).
49:30 There is an Economics channel I frequently watch: Economics Explained. They always say: “No one can predict the future, least of all economists.” One of the main reasons I watch them, also they make a yearly summary of their mistakes in past videos and try to correct them and often revisit topics in the future to get a new look on it.
I can't wait to see his book on Amazon
Well, one hour and 45 minutes was definitely not enough for me. I could take another hour or two :). Thanks for the interview; it was really inspirational!
Many thanks!!
Hold up, hold up. Not even a minute in yet and holy crap. What an intro to his guest.
What a fantastic interview Patrick. Thanks
👏🏾 another awesome post... this guest was phenomenal bc it'll take me weeks to breakdown, explore and rightly apply some of the gems here👍🏾 wow 😊
Thank you!!
it's funny how after like 15-20 years i decided to return to some of the old passions that i had :) love the collab
Saw your article in Compounded Daily... going to watch. thx... Adam seems interesting
One of the best interview I ever watched thx
Too, too kind!
Thanks Patrick & Adam - very interesting indeed.
Thank you, Patrick always explores the most interesting questions!
The point about reveiws is right. I had one of those recently where I bought direct from Dell, they asked for a reveiw. I gave one and then admin refused to publish it after review, so no real reviews
Here's my system for not locking myself out of my apartment: I set my bottom lock to not latch on closing the door and I always key out the top lock when I leave the apartment. That way if I'm in the double stupid zone where I forget my keys and forget to lock the door, I failsafe - I simply turn the knob to get back in the door.
Replace the lock with a keypad or one you have to lock?
Good afternoon! love your info packed videos ❤
When Buffet says "don't lose your capital" - it's not just a stupid line. He means you should invest conservatively and consider the downside risk. A boring reliable company might have a higher expected value than a company that could do really well, or could go to zero.
underrated imo
At some point Patrick needs to have an April 1 video where he raps about the stock market
Thank you for the video
Yeah on the economist - they’re not useless. They’re used incorrectly. The first thing any economist will tell you - more so than a trader - is that nobody knows which direction things will go. That’s like very fundamental to a lot of economics literature. What they can tell you is if A goes in X direction, B will move in Y direction faster or the other direction less fast. E.g. an economist is less likely to say “inflation is going to be 2.5% over this next 12 months” - but may have a good model to say - “given current rates and gov spending, it’s likely to be 2-3%… all else equal more gov spend, lower rates, increased tariffs and trade barriers etc. will increase expected range…”. Or they won’t say “you should set taxes at this level”. They’ll say “if you levee this tax, it will make these people richer. It will make these people poorer. It will drive companies and employees to change behavior in this way longer term…
With respect, the only reason an economist is consulted is because a corporation or investment fund wants to assess the future, which is to say, they are looking for a prediction about this or that. If economists don't know what direction things will go in, as you concede, under this scenario or that, what value do they provide the CEO or hedge fund manager?
@@adamrobinson8351 So you know what would happen and how you should react if various other things are happening. And I’m not saying they have no idea about the future.
But specifically if stocks will go up or down next week is fairly unknowable. And if it was knowable, buyer/seller pressure would push the price that way immediately now, and it would again be unclear.
@@adamrobinson8351 with respect - have you ever been or worked with an economist within a corporation?
@@mcs131313 No, but I have seen the analysis of those economists, brother, as well as pieces in countless reports. There have been brilliant economists -- Friedman, von Mises, even Keynes (a little-known brilliant investor, by the way), and I've gained many insights about the world and human behavior from economic thinking (Freakanomics, Naked Economics, The Armchair Economist, The Undercover Economist, Donut Economics -- BRILLIANT books), it's just that for making investment decisions -- as opposed to policy decisions -- the utility of such insights doesn't apply.
Great questions, Patrick... You have got the best from his wisdom... Well done!
The art of simplifying was practiced by e.g. Leo Fender in order to mass produce his electric guitars. The bolt-on guitar neck was a much faster proces than Gibson's glued-in neck and using the same pickup in all three positions on the Statocaster also makes processes and manufacturing more simple.
Please do a follow up when he releases the book. I very much want to read it.
Patrick's laugh made my hair stand on end😂
Thanks Patrick for this Great Interview ! Very enlightening
Thank you, he's the BEST!
I'd love to be Patrick's friend. Love his sense of humor 😂😂😂
Patrick is one of the wittiest, most droll experts ANYWHERE!
At 50:36 he mentions a great point about the dangers of taking on more and more information prior to a (investment) decision, as the additional information often does little more than to increase confidence, and very likely in a wrong direction.
A UA-camr called Focussed Compounding (value investors) had their latest video titled "The first 12 hrs of analysing a stock" and yet I'm finished with analysis in 4-6 hrs; the really big factors have most likely been captured and the brevity of 4hrs gives you freedom to be rational; to drop if too risky (e.g. "I actually don't think I can understand this situation") or to invest with caution.
I'm doing exactly the same thing with my keys - always produce them and hold them in my hand, watching them, as I pass through my doorway. :D
Great one! Cheers.
The way I studied for exams was to rewrite notes, then write many, many questions, number them, and choose randomly. After correctly answering a few times, I removed that question, so I kept forcing myself to answer questions I was less prepared for.
That's so clever
Really enjoyed this interview and conversation. I could have easily listened to an extra hour or two more.
Patrick is the BEST -- who else combines his wit, brilliance, and modesty!
The job of parents is to raise the child, giving them tools to not need parents!
Totally engrossed .. extraordinary individuals..
Many thanks!
Great talk.
My pet method for driving a bit safer:
Aggressive drivers leave me distracted for far too long well after an incident like cutting off others or running red lights. I start seeing myself dropping the ball and getting behind the car, losing peripheral awareness.
Gotta shake it off and focus.