95% Chance of PRICE DROPS in the Next 2 Months - Canada
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- Опубліковано 28 вер 2024
- The data is overwhelming for the probability of real estate price declines in the then 2 months in Canada. 95% odds of this happening which increases to 100% if you exclude the 2020 pandemic data. I also quickly review inflation data and criticize a recent CTV news interview with Canada's Housing Minister Sean Fraser and his non answers on housing affordability going forward. #housingcrisis #realestatemarket #realestateinvesting #bubble #jonflynn #news #realestateinvesting #investing
Inflation never went down. All inflation numbers reported are on top of what has been going on in last few years. Ordinary citizen doesn't care about quarterly results. Their salary did not go up with inflation over years. That is what they are facing.
I agree, well said
Except inflation is a global issue. Pssst. Facts who cares?
Housing pricing in the near future will continue to rise because of currency devaluation and excessive money printing
I've always wondered when inflation # is compared to..shouldn't it be from a defined point in history, and not last 1/4?. Otherwise its inflation increase based on the last inflation increase..so 2.9% + 2.7%, which to me is 5.6% total inflation.
I can't stand this word salad. Politicians make me sick for the most part. Fork tongued liars.
Liberal Party 101: say a bunch of words that don't actually address the question and then blink until the reporter goes away.
I don't know how they come up with it, they must practice and rehearse for hours.
Failed drama teacher to be exact.
Politicians are just the consequences of the people.
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The condo market in the GTA has already shown the beginning of a crash or free fall. 8100 + condos that are available that no one but investors would want to buy. $700K for a 1 bedroom shoebox in the sky??? WTF???
The crash is imminent. Get ready to have some dry powder to get a good deal.
"The crash is imminent. Get ready to have some dry powder to get a good deal..."
I'll take things that many Canadians have been saying for decades for 50 alex.
@@Joe-mz6dcsee on the chart, where the price comes down 22% from pandemic highs... that's a crash.
I'll take things that already happened, and are poised to happen again for 100, Alex.
yep well said
@@Joe-mz6dc how can you not see that with Canada's declining GDP and people already struggling, that there's simply not enough money to pay off those properties?
The problem still they have ability to not decrease the price!!! If they decrease the prices for sure somebody wants to buy them instead of renting
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LOVE THE FIRE SALE BACK GROUND.
The Trudeau mouthpiece is a professional BSer
It's called a correction. We need a correction. We needed a correction in 2009 but the gov't back then stepped in and pumped the market. We haven't had a correction since the 90s.
We need to wash all of the investors out of the sector by taxing them at commercial rates and dropping the land transfer tax.
It's been absolutely incredible that we've hardly seen a correction yet. And in Toronto that means 25-30% drop from here.
America got a correction from 2008 to the fall of 2012.
@@parkerbohnn yup. American real estate is in a much more healthy situation.
I am here, John! Waiting... It shall happen
forget homes RV is your best bet now not tent city.
your patience will pay off
@@jonflynnme too looking forward to 1919 prices.
Seasonally -- yes -- summer prices typically cool relative to spring. What is your outlook for fall -- do you see enough factors contributing to an aggressive rise in prices in the fall (obviously versus summer, but comparing to spring 2024)? Rate cuts? Inventory dipping if buyers get into the market?
Supply and Demand!! Listing supply is up by appox 71 % from June of 2023 to June of 2024, in the GTA! It's now a buyers market!!
The CPI simple state basic need such as Food, Shelter, Clothing, Transportation, Healthcare, Education are all going up; these are not discretionary spending, its Gov't policy causing everything to be more expensive like Tariff of import goods, Carbon Tax, Capital gain tax, etc; that's why household good are going down, Alcohol beverage are going down; Tobacco, and Cannabis are going down; all because people having trouble paying for it.
Great points
Great videos what is needed is for everyone to stop and let the market set the prices and the interest rate
Wages would need to be $150/hr to make Canadian house prices make sense in many of our cities. It is not going to happen. Our market should be allowed to crash. The government did everthing in their power for the past couole decades to inflate it to these insane levels.
Good point
To Make homes affordable the correction needs a 50 to 70 % drop. Top city in the world with the highest real estate bubble .....Toronto
Young canadians will be able to afford homes when
1. There is a stop to mortgagr income documentation fraud at banks
2. Stop of money laundering into canada
That's all is required to make homes affordable in Canada
Connect banks with CRA for income verification
It's not a contradiction, they just want lower rates, which would improve affordability. The only way to build more affordable without directly subsidizing, is to build smaller and cheaper. Might be OK for rentals, but not for condos. Already too small, which will be a big problem in the future for growing families. There is exactly ZERO chance (+-0%) they can reduce the price of the detached homes. If they fall, it will be as a result of normal market forces: recession, interest rates , etc..
I'm hoping there will be a housing crisis so I can buy cheaply when I sell a few houses in 2025. As a backup plan, I've been thinking about purchasing stocks. What advice do you have for choosing the best buying time? On the one hand, I continue to read and see trading earnings of over $500k each week. On the other side, I keep hearing that the market is out of control and experiencing a dead cat bounce. Why does this happen?
Investing in real estate and stocks might be a wise choice, particularly if you have a sound trading plan that can get you through profitable days.
You're not doing anything wrong; you simply lack the expertise necessary to make money in a bad market. In these difficult circumstances, only really skilled experts who witnessed the 2008 financial crisis can expect to generate a large wage.
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One reason why Trudeau could be pushing for ‘house values’ to stay high is so when these people sell their houses, the government will get most of the money (67% capital gains tax)
There is no capital gain tax on primary residence
The gains from 2019 forward, where house prices doubled, were caused by stimulus, not fundamentals. That will bleed out of the system. However, everything was grossly overpriced as of 2019. It's a correction, not a crash.
I think his answer is very clear, if what you own is small condos yes the price may be affected if they actually do a good job, but if you’re better off and own anything more expensive you’re probably not affected, they just want to manage the lower end.
I have no idea what he just said
Wishful thinking. Won't happen.
Ok I know I'm probably dreaming, but does anyone think Halton hills will drop? Or does anyone know where to go that isn't too overrun by mass immigration? I really don't want to have to move two hours out
No lmao. Southwestern Ontario is so populated with no houses.
Careful what you wish for. A real estate crash is not good for Canada.
Sure it is. Status quo isn’t sustainable either
I’ll take my chances 🎉
It'll actually devastate the Canadian economy that is so heavily dependent on real estate
Tell me you’re a renter without telling me.
@@rosatipicks I own a home in Greater Vancouver.
They don't say it out loud, but they want to inflate away the debt, that's why he is hoping for continuously increasing wages (as he repeatedly mentioned), the houses can keep their current nominal value, but their real value will be inflated away.
The US did this is the 1940s inflated debt away
thanks from Edmonton
the charts that you show, it keeps climbing up higher. wtf? It keeps going up based on your charts, the data doesn't lie.
a year from now how much of a % drop we looking at for condos
Why are you asking a bear? Buy when you can afford
@@rosatipicks so I should ask the moron bulls who bought at the hight and are now holding a bag for dear life?
Fraser is Trudeau's buddy, competent is through the roof, way.to go Canada.
This kind of politician makes me sick. Blah, blah, blah ...
Nobody wants prices to come down.
Anyone waiting for “prices to drop” especially where I live are the first ones to not want prices to ever drop again as soon as they sign the dotted line 😂
Capital gain tax on primary residence will fix the problem
talk - action = 0
Why do prices have to go down in Alberta? Alberta had a down market for 10 years. It's just now recovered.
I'm from Alberta and I haven't seen a down market here since the 90s...Its been climbing steadily since late 90s, only mild blip in 2010-2011
@@dr.indeanadegraff6929 Recovered?! You need 10x plus of a very good salary (which by stats, most don't make that) to afford anything.
Sean Fraser - World Economic Forum (Young Global Leader) SHOCKER
Kid Fraser just barfing what his owner tells him to
So my 10 year old will maybe be able to afford a house if the prices stay the same or lower for 10 years 😂
Pandering to the boomers
Wow Jon just figured out seasonality exists in the real estate market. To think he didn't know that before. Jon why didn't you do a video in January saying there was a 95% chance of PRICE INCREASES in the next two months. Were you too busy telling everyone prices were coming down to remember that the market has seasonal swings every year?
Lmao John predicting normal swings. Let’s predict the chances of John apologizing in the coming years when prices hold lol.
@@rosatipicks I will take 0% for $100 LOL
We did it Toronto-St Paul's! we sent a message loud and clear!
Yes.... Thank you. And the rest of US will be following next year.
@@surprisek3918 True. But even if the other scenario is just a lesser loss then we have to accept reality. There is NO OTHER choice other than the PPC for me... but they're not going to form government... for now I'll accept the reality of today's choices.
@@calgarycanada248 What possible difference will Peter Pocket Pool make? Come on, man, get serious. Conservatives love the rich and hate everyone else.
Have you seen what the incompetent Doug Ford has done to Ontario and having PC at federal level won't make any difference.
@@surprisek3918💯, only a fool still believes voting matters
Retirees need that housing equity to escape 🇨🇦! 🤣Great work Jon. Congrats on 20k subs!
Absolute nonsense. Are you even a Canadian? Most retirees with homes plan to leave them to their loved ones. And why would we leave Canada, and our family, friends, our relationship to the land, our history and culture? There's more to life than money, you know.
Retirees need higher interest rates so they don't have to move to Mexico to retire to get those double digit interest rates in a stronger currency.
@@YoBoyMarcus Retirees fleeing in droves? How can they afford it? Have you seen the price of a drove lately? Inflation has put the cost through the roof! As for your ancestors who built the country, do you mean the Chinese slaves who died during the construction of the railway, or the SS officers who escaped after the war and settled all over the prairies? I realize it's hard to pin history down, but it helps if you read a few books. But don't worry; wherever you're going, whatever paradise of racial and moral purity you're hoping to find, I'm sure you won't be forced to read anything there either.
So the housing minister is not able to say that the house price needs to go down. Such a clown 🤡
lots of talk but no action from him
Bear in mind, until this year this same moron (Sean Fraser) was the IMMIGRATION MINISTER who brought us the immigration crisis and all of the knock-on effects from that (homelessness, rent affordability, violent crime, low economic productivity).
If you fall for Fraser’s answer, you’re probably a Liberal voter.
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Can I also do it??? My life is facing lots of challenges lately
I've always wanted to be involved for a long time but the volatility in the price has been very confusing to me. Although I have watched a lot of UA-cam videos about it but I still find it hard to understand
That toronto house pictured behind him sells for 1.4 mil.
yep
A transformative era is upon us, granting you unprecedented control and influence over your choices, from your financial decisions to your voting preferences. The landscape is evolving- financial systems, voting methods, even internet servers are undergoing profound changes into the quantum systems. We are in the midst of a significant transition, and every facet of our lives will be transformed.
The current financial system and traditional banks, once pillars of stability, are heading for inevitable collapse, while the grip of governments and elites is slipping. Are you prepared for this imminent shift?
Have you established your quantum system account, embracing the new paradigm?
Have you converted your fiat currency into XRP and XLM, the digital assets backed by real value such as silver and gold?
These transitions will soon render the existing systems obsolete, and you may wake up one day to find your bank accounts and exchanges inaccessible.
It's time for action, patriots! Embrace the dawn of the quantum systems era and the restoration of freedom that comes with NESARA-GESARA @followers WHERE WE GO ONE, WE GO ALL. (WWG1WGA) STAY FOCUSED, STAY TUNED, STAY AWAKE.🇱🇷🇱🇷🇱🇷🇱🇷💪💪
Tap on my profile and send me a direct message for proper informations and guidelines about the upcoming bank crash and QFS link
The politician: blah blah blah sam slick from slickville blah blah blah. He'd best have other employment plans...not looking grand for libs
Prices coming down to 2019 levels and staying there for about 10 years to allow wages to catch up to what were still high prices in much of the country would be ideal.
I'd like to see lower but it might be the only way that current owners don't get burned too badly. I'm torn lol
Sell your house for 2019 prices then😂😂😂😂
@@milhouse8166 that’s why I think a return to 2019 levels would be ideal. It would hurt people who bought since but it wouldn’t cripple the economy. This is in my semi-educated but certainly not expert opinion.
@@apprenticephil649 I plan on living in the home I purchased in autumn 2023 for many years. If I move cities I will sell for what the market will bear. If it is significantly lower than I paid I plan on renting it out. With the basement suite I should be able to rent for enough to cover my expenses. It is not an “amazing” house but it’s in a pretty desirable location so I’d like to own for life if possible. I feel very lucky to have purchased it.
@@apprenticephil649 I plan on living in the house I purchased last autumn for the long term. I see it as a home, not a speculative investment.
What a clown this politician was !!!
As far as I'm concerned anything short of "prices have to come down" is the wrong answer.
If investors are allowed to purchase as many properties they can , then how system can ensure affordable housing is only for those who are in real need .
Why we are not talking about to limit the number house purchase by any entity ,
Investor and agents manipulation play a big role in housing market crises for ordinary and working class of Canada
I totally agree 100%.
Your point is accurate and obvious, unless you're one of the many greedy speculators online who prefer to blame everyone else for the country's housing crisis.
Thank you Mr. Flynn for the effort you put in to educating us on real estate. God bless you.
You are very welcome
Whatever Trudeau or the minister say, you give them too much credit for having the power to influence prices. Their only powr it to spend taxpayer money, which would amount to gross interference in the markets, or change regulations, which they already did in spades, with limited impact.
Agree with him. Building rental apartments won’t necessarily bring down detached homes values.
Supply does very little to put downward pressure on home prices. Its a superficial answer to help politicians get votes and municipalities get more tax revenue. Government is a tax hungry machine. Dealing with the root causes to the problem such as immigration, investors is political suicide.
95% chance of 5% price drops...bankers panic.
Why wouldn’t cry have an economic critic on to counter this fool! Wages have only increased 2% real inflation is 8%. Also, what about government accountability for staining taxes so high industry left Canada or Utilities charging so much for hydro manufacturing also left Canada!! Holds those who drive this market accountable!!!
Hose price are 30 to 50% to high. If prices don’t come down then the only people buying are those already in a home. Just look at the average family income and you will know why people can’t afford to buy at these prices.
Agree 100%. At least 50% cut. Can you imagine the money Justin- Sparkle Socks has made for him and his banker-investor buddies with these house increases.
There is zero chance housing would drop 50% from current prices. They have come down 10-20% from peak and are just flat now and with rates dropping the prices will stay flat and slowly rise. Canadian real estate fundamentally cannot drop significantly. Make more to meet the market or move.
Why do we even talk to these idiots. Sean Fraser is skilled at double talk
Sorry but homes will continue to go up all across the board in Canada! Even if there is a correction bringing the prices down slightly for months or a year they will just continue to rise in the long run!
Up and down but in 10years they will all have end up by doubling again!
Anyone saying different does not understand anything about money real estate in Canada
And the multiple extra reasons why there is constant upwards pressure!
If you cant afford a home buy a Triplex and use the lease’s to pass easily if you live in it You can put as little as 5% down!
Then in 5years use the equity to buy a home!
Use you brains ppl if a house is the goal it is achievable in 5years just like anything else you put your mind too!
But dont pray for homes to go down and stay down….
They wont!
Nothing stays the same for long anymore.
Canada became desirable to many groups from outside of Canada which created demand.
Will money launderers always be drawn to Canada?
Will Chinese money always be exiting, or will they decide there money is better off in China or another country?
Will the future govt stop immigration for a number of years?
Will wages go up to support higher rent yeilds for landlords?
I have been investing for many years in companies, commodities and RE and since the Dotcom implosion money doesn't sit in one place forever. What I own now I didn't own 10 years ago (except my Microsoft) and I won't own in 10 years.
Make no mistake, this is an investor driven market. If it wasn't it never would have exceeded 4x income outside of the GVA and GTA.
will it still be a desirable destination for $.
Or will something else surface that is perceived as smarter?
So, houses will keep their value while getting more affordable??? There's only one way that what he says is true and it's through massive inflation and massive wage increase while not affecting real estate price, taxes, construction and maintenance cost. So, it's utterly impossible.
Yep I agree
Yesterday on Centris (Quebec real estate MLS), virtually all the new postings in the Outaouais were price reductions. Between $50k and $10k. I guess all the realtors have come to the realization that this is the last week of June, and as Jon mentioned and it's your last opportunity to try and sell before you either delist or wait and take a more considerable hit in the coming months.
61.8% golden ratio. That's the retracement required for market to balance. At that price retracement, we will be at 2008 prices. It will happen.
@@YoBoyMarcus holding the bag, are we?
“ restore affordability “ I thought we’ve had “ affordable housing “ for years.
The condo flippers are going to hit hard.
No it’s not ok to Canadians . No we won’t understand !!!!!!!!
Housing supply... just cut down all the people coming into Canada..... reduce the people supply so you dont have pressure on housing. DUH
Clearly you don’t understand economics. Canada also needs people to continuously develop our own economy.
@@tharseopt7179 I don't believe in blaming immigrants, but just as a counter argument, Norway's population is the same now as it was at the start of the century, and their economy is just fine.
A home here in Welland On. that you would assume would go for between 550 and $650,000, is listed at $299,900. My wife told me today that one of her friends sons put in an offer for 500,000 and the real estate agent responded by saying that they are not excepting anything under 600,000. Should definitely not be allowed in the material real estate board should really do something about situation like this. It makes the whole industry look cheap and fake!
The only people playing in the market now are those who are in the game. New players can't get in. So, if the ones in the game can't sell, they also can't buy, which will be pretty devastating for some who HAVE to sell. Good luck to those who are over extended.
John I watch all your shows. Very good reporting. What mls system do you use? Realm or Matrix?
Matrix
@@jonflynn 😊
Vassy is hot and an interviewing BEAST!
Bummer she works for ClownTV
She's out of your league.
yep and yep
@@mateofernando5066 I can't even disagree...😪
😂
Yeah she's really a decent honest journalist; no CBC lapdog... a lady with principles and courage I'd say.
It's so infuriating to hear these people avoid talking about cutting demand by cutting immigration. They could improve things so quickly, but they won't. They don't care.
These are orders they took from JT who took it from Claus. And our feelings are irrelevant to those.
Only way to keep prices the "same" is to increase wages. Aka make the money worth less so you can buy a million dollar home and a $1000.00 hotdog at Costco...
Isnt that burned down house in Pickering?
Niagara Falls
Bubble crash 😂
Canada, esp Toronto, is a Three star Hotel charging 5 star prices
Dropping prices hurts a very powerful demographic which can have great political influence.
She should of asked him what does he think is affordable….5x’s, 10x’s yearly income.
should have
Yes increasing the supply of apartments will not affect detached housing prices in a nearby suburb.. that is true. However, increasing the supply of apartments will reduce the value of other apartments and increasing the supply of detached housing will erode the value of other detached housing.. this is especially true if the quality of the new supply decreases which is what is happening across the board with all housing forms.
There was a reversion to the mean chart you showed in an earlier video. I would like to see that chart periodically in your videos. My opinion is that while yes, housing prices will come down in the summer months, there is a huge storm coming respecting mortgage defaults and renewals that is going to be an armageddon scenario for housing nation wide. Also, we are being taxed to death and no one is investing in this hell hole of a country anymore.
That, the last sentence is most important. There's no future development given the current trends. It's not a surprise to see the economy implode in a socialist leaning country.
Globalization is over. Growth is over. Degrowth is starting. Inflation here to stay. Higher rates here to stay. Make your own conclusion.
Point and fact why do we encourage all peoples to go into debt no matter what you're buying a house a car land property investment homes businesses what is the point to turning people into debt drones. Why not work on feeding and providing a good standard of living for every human being on the planet it's a big freaking world it's even a bigger freaking world, without debt. That is the separation between people debt versus living harmoniously in your own skin.
Hahaha people are making the same video every week for last 2 years…
But the prices are going up rather than down !! 😂
As per realtors to their customers…
‘Prices are going up’ for owners, and ‘prices are going down’ for buyers…
During sale… owners are getting lesser while buyers are paying more… the complete scam is for the govt., builders, realtors and all the related mechanism to earn, which is being paid by the buyer…
For instance… realtors are continuously reselling unaffordable houses earning themselves and helping the authorities to earn out of fees like ‘land transfer fees’ etc etc.. 🙄
Inflation number is manipulated because they don’t want to see another cut in July but okay in September after FEB cuts its rate for the first time, and another cut at year end. They will be multi cuts from 1-1.5% in 2025 to save the economy if the 2 wars ends. If not, inflation will be backfired again, we will see the worst housing and financial crisis 2nd half next year.
The dollar will crash before the housing market does. Only thing that will go at discounted rates for a very short little while (before the lack of new projects catches up to the market after 2026) will be 500 sq ft 1 bedroom condos in glass towers.
The issue of regulation is that it targets demand or supply to try and address affordability, but most of the time it just increases inefficiencies, and the end result is higher costs anyway.
Prices down but still not able to afford a home. So, whats the point of declining prices. 25k less of 900k home is a joke.
Time is the answer. Time will make house prices stagnate for a decade and then in 10 years houses will be affordable. Thats what he’s trying to get across without saying as much. People want affordable homes now and not in 10 years.
I wonder if they’re trying to correlate dollar debasement with with real estate decline to zero each other out 🤔
The interview critique was spot-on! It's frustrating when answers dodge the real issues. Your breakdown of the housing market dynamics was clear and informative. Great job!
jt loves this guy, cause he is better at word salad and shenanigan talk than any other minister. This guy has the ability to be a prime minister if he woild apply himself.
So... based on seasonality ... you are 95% predicting "continued seasonality"?
Excellent video with facts and stats, keep up the good work.
Much appreciated!
It’s not necessarily contradictory. They are going to drop rates and crush the currency. Look at the currency forecasts
This guy expects my wage to double in the next couple of years?! pound sand bro
According to Garth Turners recent post home prices are not likely to decrease any time soon? What is your response to Garth!
Creating more opportunities in other provinces and encouraging people to move out of the GTA is the solution.
This Sean Fraser looks like Jonah from Veep and that's all I can see. Same IQ too.
Good. The up only crowd has been getting a little greedy imo.
Fraser gaslighting as usual.